This post is for voting and discussion in the 84th round of balloting for the Circle of Greats (COG). This round adds to the list of candidates eligible to receive your votes those players born in 1905. Rules and lists are after the jump.
The new group of 1905-born players, in order to join the eligible list, must, as usual, have played at least 10 seasons in the major leagues or generated at least 20 Wins Above Replacement (“WAR”, as calculated by baseball-reference.com, and for this purpose meaning 20 total WAR for everyday players and 20 pitching WAR for pitchers). This new group of 1905-born candidates joins the eligible holdovers from previous rounds to comprise the full list of players eligible to appear on your ballots.
Each submitted ballot, if it is to be counted, must include three and only three eligible players. As always, the one player who appears on the most ballots cast in the round is inducted into the Circle of Greats. Players who fail to win induction but appear on half or more of the ballots that are cast win four added future rounds of ballot eligibility. Players who appear on 25% or more of the ballots cast, but less than 50%, earn two added future rounds of ballot eligibility. Any other player in the top 9 (including ties) in ballot appearances, or who appears on at least 10% of the ballots, wins one additional round of ballot eligibility.
All voting for this round closes at 11:59 PM EST Saturday, February 7, while changes to previously cast ballots are allowed until 11:59 PM EST Thursday, February 5.
If you’d like to follow the vote tally, and/or check to make sure I’ve recorded your vote correctly, you can see my ballot-counting spreadsheet for this round here: COG 1905 Vote Tally . I’ll be updating the spreadsheet periodically with the latest votes. Initially, there is a row in the spreadsheet for every voter who has cast a ballot in any of the past rounds, but new voters are entirely welcome — new voters will be added to the spreadsheet as their ballots are submitted. Also initially, there is a column for each of the holdover candidates; additional player columns from the new born-in-1905 group will be added to the spreadsheet as votes are cast for them.
Choose your three players from the lists below of eligible players. The eighteen current holdovers are listed in order of the number of future rounds (including this one) through which they are assured eligibility, and alphabetically when the future eligibility number is the same. The 1905 birth-year guys are listed below in order of the number of seasons each played in the majors, and alphabetically among players with the same number of seasons played.
Holdovers:
Harmon Killebrew (eligibility guaranteed for 9 rounds)
Roberto Alomar (eligibility guaranteed for 5 rounds)
Eddie Murray (eligibility guaranteed for 3 rounds)
Kevin Brown (eligibility guaranteed for 2 rounds)
Joe Cronin (eligibility guaranteed for 2 rounds)
Dennis Eckersley (eligibility guaranteed for 2 rounds)
Rick Reuschel (eligibility guaranteed for 2 rounds)
Luis Tiant (eligibility guaranteed for 2 rounds)
Richie Ashburn (eligibility guaranteed for this round only)
Roy Campanella (eligibility guaranteed for this round only)
David Cone (eligibility guaranteed for this round only)
Don Drysdale (eligibility guaranteed for this round only)
Jim Edmonds (eligibility guaranteed for this round only)
Dwight Evans (eligibility guaranteed for this round only)
Wes Ferrell (eligibility guaranteed for this round only)
Minnie Minoso (eligibility guaranteed for this round only)
Graig Nettles (eligibility guaranteed for this round only)
Dave Winfield (eligibility guaranteed for this round only)
Everyday Players (born in 1905, ten or more seasons played in the major leagues or at least 20 WAR):
Doc Cramer
Rick Ferrell
Leo Durocher
Gus Mancuso
Red Kress
Bob Johnson
Freddie Lindstrom
Pinky Whitney
Wally Berger
Arndt Jorgens
Jack Rothrock
John Stone
Adam Comorosky
Sam Leslie
Pitchers (born in 1906, ten or more seasons played in the major leagues or at least 20 WAR):
Red Ruffing
Danny MacFayden
Jack Russell
Bob Weiland
Ed Brandt
A less than standout group of newcomers:
1) Among players with less than 10 WAR, Doc Cramer has by far the most career PAs (nearly 1,400 more than Don Kessinger).
2) Among players with less than 6 WAR, Leo Durocher has the 10th most PAs.
3) Arndt Jorgenson played 11 seasons, all with the Yankees, accumulating a mere 836 PAs and 0.1 WAR.
4) Jack Russell is one of 4 pitchers with 200+ decisions and a winning percentage under .400.
5) Bob Weiland and Russell are 2 of the 14 pitchers with 150+ decisions and a WP under .400.
Rick Reuschel, Kevin Brown, Red Ruffing
Over 11,000 Innings Pitched, and about 47,000 Batters Faced, on that ballot.
Cronin, Campanella, Ferrell
I assume you mean Wes? His brother Rick is eligible this round, too. Rick is the one in the Hall of Fame.
Yeah, the HOF kind of blew it on that one. I’m voting for the one that belongs in the HOF and the COG- Wes.
Thanks for catching that.
Alomar, Murray, Winfield
Alomar, Minoso, Ashburn
Looked for a reason not to vote for Kevin Brown – couldn’t find one – Brown, alomar cronin
With Appling off the ballot, my default vote from the last few rounds needs to change. I’m going (tentatively) with:
Kevin Brown
Don Drysdale
Luis Tiant
You’re such a peak focused guy, why Tiant over Ferrell?
So sorry I didn’t see this earlier, mosc! I’ve been following the thread, but I never even looked for follow-up to my own post!
A couple of things. The first and foremost of those is that I don’t see THAT much difference between them. And, all else being equal, I will lean towards a more recent player, especially when comparing a pre-integration player to a post-expansion player. I just believe that the quality of 1970s baseball was much better than 1930s baseball. So there’s that.
Another item is that, in a direct comparison of the two players, I think it’s a little unfair to include Ferrell’s hitting. Tiant spent the majority of his career in a DH league. Even before that, admittedly, he wasn’t the hitter Ferrell was, so perhaps it’s legit. But there’s that part of me that says the pitcher-as-hitter isn’t the most important thing.
That said, when you compare the two strictly as pitchers (per WAR), they’re very similar – virtually identical, actually, when you sort their seasons by WAR. Both have an 8.4 to lead it off, then 7.8/7.9, a couple of high-6s, then Ferrell has an advantage with two low-6s versus two mid-5s for Tiant. Then a couple of 4s for each. So they look pretty darn similar. But Tint has the hangaround value.
It’s basically splitting hairs between the two. I had to ask myself, “Would you rather have the pitcher whose extra value comes from hitting, or the one whose value comes from hangaround?” Given the difference in era, I give a hairsbreadth edge to Tiant. But I never begrudge anyone a vote for Ferrell.
Actually, last round, I considered a vote change in Ferrell’s favor, but I’ve done no strategic voting so far, and when it came down to it, I couldn’t take a vote away from Drysdale nor Kevin Brown, since they needed them (at that point, anyway), too! (I suppose I could’ve taken away my vote from Appling, but it honestly didn’t occur to me not to vote for Luke Appling.)
Like I said, this is a fair question of me – or, frankly, anyone, since I don’t think there’s much separation among these pitchers. I think they’re all great, but I honestly don’t know how to separate them in any really meaningful way. So this is the best I’ve got for you!!!
Ferrell appeared in games without pitching hundreds of times. It’s not fair to discount all of his batting value since he was “just” a pitcher, even compared to a modern pitcher in a DH league. Ferrell outhit shortstops of his era and by raw numbers pretty much any era. He was good enough to pinch hit for more than just a pitcher.
He even played the field a few times.
“Ferrell appeared in games without pitching hundreds of times.”
A wee exaggeration. Ferrell pitched in 374 games and appeared in 174 other games. Ferrell pinch-hit in 163 games but, surprisingly, stayed in the game to pitch on only 3 occasions.
Ferrell’s BOPs (1-9) are 11-2-0-0-3-10-12-21-489. Ferrell pinch-hit for the #8 or #9 hitter in 138 of 163 (85%) pinch-hit appearances.
Ferrell’s best season as a pitcher, and as a hitter, was 1935.
And as a hitter he was just ridiculous:
.347 / .427 / .533 / .960
And that’s no small sample size. He had 179 PA.
And more walks than strikeouts.
The #9 hitters in the AL that year (including Ferrell’s numbers), slashed:
.202 / .260 / .262 / .522
_____
Compare that to the best player in the league that season (by OPS+), Jimmie Foxx:
.346 / .461 / .636 / 1.096
He batted cleanup every game. #4 hitters in the AL:
.302 / .388 / .506 / .894
_____
There are nine slots in batting order, every game.
Arguably the top spots are more important because they get the first crack at that 4th or 5th PA every game.
But every plate appearance is important.
Ferrell provided value from the nine hole that dwarfed what the best hitters in the game provided compared to their counterparts.
He had a skill set that was unique to the league.
And provided plus-value from a spot that every other team writes off as a negative.
Keep in mind that 35 of his PAs in 1935 were as a PH, not a pitcher. For those PAs, his performance should probably be compared to alternative hitters who might have been used in the situation, rather than other pitchers.
birtelcom – look at the 1935 Red Sox. It’s not the Ted Williams Red Sox. In 1935 Ferrell was their leading OPS+ guy for players with more than 18 PAs. The second best player on the team was Dusty Cooke, 112 OPS+. The team OPS+, without pitchers, was 91. The Red Sox didn’t have a lot of alternatives then.
In 1936 Wes Ferrell, not to be confused with Rick, only had an 85 OPS+. He certainly wasn’t the best hitter on that Red Sox team as it had Jimmie Foxx, but Red Sox non-pitchers, which includes Foxx and his 155 OPS+ in 693 PAs, had an OPS+ of 85. So Ferrell in a below average year by his own standards was still about as good as any Red Sox they were going to pull off the bench.
birtlecom – great, let’s call him a hitter.
This is my point. In his prime he was usually the best pitcher on the field, AND as good as most of the hitters. That is an unheard-of combination.
birtelcom, if we’re parsing Ferrell’s PAs, let’s add that — like almost everyone — he hit much better as a starter than off the bench. So, if you chip a little off his batting value by comparing his bench PAs to other bench hitters, don’t forget to pump up his batting value relative to other pitchers. Seems close to a zero-sum game.
Ferrell as a starter (which includes a mere 13 starts not on the hill):
.293 BA, .363 OBP, .468 SLG, .831 OPS.
Per 650 PAs:
20 HRs, 98 RBI, 92 runs, 54 XBH.
Those bench PAs, almost 1/6 of his career total, trimmed 13 points off his BA, 34 points off his OPS.
FWIW … When batting 9th, Ferrell averaged 100 RBI per 650 PAs — the best rate of the 250 players with 800+ known PAs in that slot, including position players. Schoolboy Rowe averaged 95; three position players plus Earl Wilson averaged 86-88.
Ferrell’s 88 Runs per 650 PAs from the 9 hole trails only two ’90s-era position players.
Sandy Alomar, Jr., in an offensive era similar to Ferrell’s (and in some great lineups), averaged 17 HRs and 85 RBI per 650 PAs from the 9 hole (about 1,600 PAs). Ferrell averaged 20 and 100.
No, it’s not a zero-sum game because Ferrell should be getting 0 Rpos for all his non-pitcher PAs. But that chipped-away value is negligible. If 1/6 of his PAs is correct, it’s a simple computation since Ferrell ended up with near 0 Rbat. All of his value is in his positional adjustment, so we just shave 1/6 of his Rpos and he ends up with 10.7 WAR instead of 12.8.
That shouldn’t be enough to change any conversation, so maybe we should just drop that side of it. Let’s just say he has 11 hitting WAR, or 13 if you must (or how about 12?) and move on.
I do find the posting of Wes Ferrell’s slash lines generated in an extreme hitter’s park to be unfair, especially when they’re compared against a line generated from a group of hitter with a park factor of exactly 100. How ’bout some context, boys?
Is anyone else having a problem with the subscription service? I haven’t received any of the posts from this thread, and over the last few days I was receiving the posts for the 1906 election very erratically, if at all. Is it just me?
I’m having problems. The recent posts list is lagging.
Although comments seem to be appearing promptly in the threads themselves, the “Recent Comments” list seems to stop up entirely for a while and then a whole bunch will appear at once. This has been happening for at least a few days now.
Yeah, I noticed that about the ‘recent comments’ list. Something is clearly wonky, ’cause as of this (Friday) morning, I haven’t received a single post from this thread, nor the 1906 results thread.
@18,
Yes, I’ve noticed the same behavior with my comments posted the last several days not appearing on the “Recent Comments”, though my most recent one appeared promptly.
I posted this yesterday on the 1906 thread, because Dave Humbert brought up the question of Murray and Killer…
__________
Eddie Murray vs Harmon Killebrew
Steady Eddie easily beats Killer in every counting stat except for Home Runs.
Of course, Murray had almost 3000 more plate appearances.
7th all-time vs 90th all-time.
Over his last 3000 (3053) PA, covering six years, Murray is credited with 3.8 WAR.
Killer was replacement level for his last three years, (1041 PA)
Murray was consistently above average from ages 21-34.
9125 PA
63.2 WAR
396 Rbat / -7 Rbaser / 59 Rfield
Killer was consistently above average from ages 23-36
8512 PA
60.7 WAR
502 Rbat / -22 Rbaser / -71 Rfield
Here’s their best WAR years:
7.1 … 6.4
6.6 … 6.2
5.6 … 5.9
5.2 … 5.7
5.1 … 4.9
4.9 … 4.7
4.4 … 4.3
4.2 … 4.2
4.1 … 4.2
3.8 … 3.1
3.7 … 3.1
3.2 … 2.8
3.2 … 2.8
2.4 … 2.5
2.0 … 0.5
1.6 … 0.2
1.2 … 0.0
1.1 … -0.1
Murray’s played in High School with Ozzie Smith.
Killebrew is the best player to ever come from Idaho.
_____
This comparison illustrates for me one of the philosophical questions inherent in this exercise, namely:
What is Great?
Or, what is greater:
To be Very Good at Everything, or
To be Great at one thing and average otherwise?
The one thing that Killer was great at was the sexiest and arguably most valuable thing – putting the ball over the fence.
Here’s a situation – say you were building a team, and knew you could field a 4 WAR player at every position.
But you have to choose:
Well-rounded, above average players, or
players who derived most of their value from one big item in the toobox?
(Yes, i know that if you got 4 WAR out of every position you’re in good shape no matter what, but…)
Player A isn’t going to cause losses because of holes in his game. But
Player B is more likely to win games because of that one hit/run/throw that stands out.
???
I’m not sure it’s fair though to treat Killer as “one-dimensional” as compared to Eddie. Harmon was both a great slugger and had a superb eye. He had a higher SLG
than Murray but also a higher OBP (and that’s over their primes — not just an artifact of Eddie’s greater number of career PAs). Killer was a more valuable hitter overall, I think. And really, should Harmon be dinged as “one-dimensional” because he played, albeit poorly, at third and in the outfield while Eddie Murray was allowed to stay solely at first (and a bit of DH) his whole career?
Yes, agreed.
Harmon was 7th All-Time in BB when he retired.
(to go with 5th in HomeRuns). I overlooked that.
Or, maybe I chose to overlook it because being below average as a baserunner draws value away from walks.
(Unless you’ve got Ruth and Gehrig batting behind you)
(Killer walked 145 times in 1969. Amazing. But they walked him to get to Rich Reese and Leo Cardenas.)
19/18 SB, career
35 percent XBT
45th in Runs when he retired (now 132nd)
25th in RBI (now 38th)
____
And I’m not sure what to make of his defensive versatility, for similar reasons. Is it valuable to bad at more than one thing at a time?
But that value of his baserunning after the walks has already been measured, and it’s baked into his WAR. You’re presenting it like it hasn’t.
I’m a Murray guy also and fully support his induction, but Killer also has a comfortable edge in RE24 (27th all-time) and WPA (18th) over Eddie.
You do have to be careful with the “all-time” moniker for play-by-play stats such as RE24 and WPA, which only go back to 1940 with the Play Index’s current data.
True, thanks. I was aware of that and should have included it.
Since 1940, or whenever:
RE24
Killer 27th, Murray 41st
WPA
Killer 18th, Murray 32nd
Looking at Luke Appling’s logs post-1940, the play-by-play data doesn’t cover all games on the schedule, so hitters aren’t getting credit in the win probability department for a portion of the schedule. So the all-time ranking thing is even more suspect than I thought. Even Mays in the early ’50s has some games missing.
Looks like Killer’s game logs are complete with RE24 data for ’59, the year he became a regular, so perhaps “since 1960 or so” is a good way to frame it.
RE24 to me doesn’t need correction when you’re talking about comparing players for a season, say 2014 run producers but it certainly needs a correction for adjusting between eras.
Great question, Voomo. A gut-reaction answer: I think you get a similar number of wins from both teams, but you draw more fans with the team full of one-tool guys. One tool worth 4 WAR is a pretty significant tool. Fans will come to watch Thome’s homers, Andrelton’s defense, and the mythical creature than can add four wins on the basepaths.
@19,
I’d consider Killebrew more of a ‘two-and-a-half tool player”:
– power, of course, with HRs
– great batting eye; lots of walks
– positional versatility (1B, 3B, LF), but only a half, because it’s all at corner positions (no ‘up-the-middle positions)
By those standards, Ted Williams would be considered a “two tool player”, but OH, those two tools…
Nice, Lawrence! I feel like Killebrew has been dragged through the mud long enough, but I’m saving up some bullets for a later time. I have a feeling he will be one of the last to make it if he does.
I also feel that with all the various forms of “what-if” credit being doled out to various players for a wide variety of reasons some thought should be given to how much value Killer lost because of his bonus-baby status early in his career.
It frustrates me when Glove and Arm are two of the tools when they’re more than likely intertwined. I would prefer the 5 tools be
Contact
Eye
Power
Speed
Defense
But I guess I’m happier lumping arm+glove than contact+eye
@35,
Actually, Teddy Ballgame would be a ‘Three-tool-player’ by my standards:
-Power
– batting eye (ie, walks)
– BATTING AVERAGE
Alomar, Kevin Brown, Cronin
alomar (Roberto not sandy sr or sandy jr), nettles(Craig not Jim), Tiant (the son, not the father or grandson)
Harmon Killebrew, Dennis Eckersley, Red Ruffing
Killebrew, Campanella, Murray
Red Ruffing, Bob Johnson, Wes Ferrell
Minoso, Cronin, Ashburn.
Tiant, Brown, Alomar
Most Wins Above Average, excluding negative seasonal totals:
Brown 43.3
Reuschel 40.6
FerrellW 40.1
Cone 39.1
Edmonds 38.0
Tiant 37.5
Cronin 37.3
Alomar 37.1
Nettles 35.7
Drysdale 35.3
Evans 34.9
Eckersley 34.3
Ashburn 33.9
Murray 33.7
Ruffing 33.1
Killebrew 33.0
Winfield 31.1
Johnson 30.9
Minoso 30.6
Campanella 19.2
Some really bad Hall of Fame choices in this group. Indian Bob was far more valuable than Lindstrom or the lesser Ferrell. Ruffing, who could hit, rides the Wes Ferrell treatment (combining hitting and pitching WAA within each season and removing negative totals) to a slightly better rating.
Kevin Brown, Kevin Brown again, and Larry Walker
Kidding.
Brown, Eckersley, and Campanella
Cronin, Eckersley, Murray
hmm, WordPress says i already cast my vote, but it doesn´t appear here, so again:
Harmon Killebrew, Dennis Eckersley, Red Ruffing
Nettles, Campanella, Cronin.
Killebrew, Ashburn, and Bob Johnson
This year’s tidbits.
1. Red Ruffing is the only pitcher with two seasons of 30 decisions and a W-L% under .300. Who is the last pitcher with one such season? (Randy Jones)
2. Doc Cramer’s .079 career isolated power is the lowest mark among AL outfielders with 2000 games played. Which such NL outfielder has the lowest career ISO? (Richie Ashburn)
3. Rick Ferrell is one of four players with career OPS+ under 100 (min. 5000 PA) and career walk rate exceeding 13% of PAs, markers not yet seen in the expansion era. Which players with 5000+ PA since 1961 have come closest to doing so? (Butch Wynegar, Willie Randolph)
4. Gus Mancuso was the first Giant to bat .295 and catch 125 games in consecutive seasons (1935-36). Who is the last Giant catcher with one such season? (Dick Dietz)
5. Danny MacFayden posted 5 seasons with 20 decisions and a W-L% under .400, one of 5 pitchers to do so before World War II. Who is the only pitcher with 5 such seasons since? (Mike Moore)
6. Leo Durocher’s 38 OPS+ in 1938 is tied with Hal Lanier for the lowest mark by an NL shortstop in a qualifying season. Which AL shortstop had a lower OPS+ in a qualifying season and, like Durocher, later managed in the majors? (Billy Hunter)
7. Jack Russell was the second relief pitcher (and second Washington Senator) with consecutive seasons (1933-34) of 50 appearances and 120 IP. Who was the pitcher to do this most recently? (Greg Cadaret)
8. Red Kress is the only Oriole or Brown shortstop to bat .300 in 500+ games over the first 5 seasons of his career. In his first game as a pitcher in 1935, Kress struck out the side against the Yankees. Who is the last player to strike out the side in a season when he was not primarily a pitcher? (Mark Whiten)
9. Bob Johnson’s 13 seasons are the most among players to post a qualifying 125 OPS+ in every season of a career. Which player has the most such seasons consecutively? (Ty Cobb)
10. Freddie Lindstrom is the only player with two 225 hit seasons and no other seasons with more than 175 hits. Who is the last player with two 200 hit seasons and no other seasons above 175 hits? (Bernie Williams)
11. Pinky Whitney and teammates Don Hurst and Chuck Klein all debuted with the Phillies in 1928 and all batted .300 in 300+ games over their first three seasons. Who are the only Phillies since to do the same? (Dick Allen, Richie Ashburn)
12. Bob Weiland started 50% of his games in 600 IP through age 29 and did the same age 30+, making a 95% improvement (.269 to .526) in his W-L% in the latter period. Among over 300 like pitchers, no others improved their W-L% by even 60%. Weiland’s 257 point improvement was also the best of the group, beating Red Ruffing’s 227 point gain. Weiland ended his career with St. Louis, giving up a 3-run homer in relief in his final game. Which HOFer hit the home run the last time a Cardinal left-hander ended his career the same way? (Eddie Murray, off Tim Sherrill)
13. Wally Berger’s then rookie record of 38 home runs in 1930 has been exceeded only once, by Mark McGwire’s 49 dingers in 1987. Of the 7 players like Berger to bat .300 and slug .600 in a 400 PA rookie campaign, who was the oldest? (George Watkins)
14. Arndt Jorgens was a catcher for the Yankees and is the last Norwegian-born player in the majors. Which catcher did the Yankees trade to acquire another Norway native? (Jack O’Connor)
15. John Stone had back-to-back 4 WAR seasons (1936-37) batting .320 for the Senators. Between Stone and Kirby Puckett, who is the only Senator or Twin outfielder to do the same? (Tony Oliva)
16. Ed Brandt lost 21 games in his 1928 rookie season. Who is the only other live ball era pitcher to lose 20 in his debut season? (Clay Kirby)
17. Jack Rothrock was the first AL player to play all 9 field positions in the same season (1928). Unlike some others with such a season, Rothrock played no more than three positions in any game, and played at least 10 games at 6 different positions. Rothrock played every game of the 1934 season, his first as a Cardinal. Who is the only Cardinal to play every game in his career debut season? (Ray Jablonski)
18. Sam Leslie had the misfortune to play behind Bill Terry at first base for the Giants, resulting in a trade to Brooklyn where he put up two 90 RBI seasons batting .300. Who are the other three first basemen like Leslie to bat .300 with 120 OPS+ in 1500 PA for the Dodgers? (Jake Daubert, Jack Fournier, Steve Garvey)
19. Adam Comorosky had a career year in 1930, recording over one-third of his career doubles, triples and home runs, and over one-quarter of his runs and RBI. His was one of five seasons during 1928-32 with 80 extra-base hits and fewer than 15 home runs. Who is the only player since with such a season? (Stan Musial)
Additional tidbits:
Red Ruffing is one of 6 pitchers to pitch a shutout and also hit a HR which was the only run of the game.
Doc Cramer, in 1940, set a seasonal record for lowest OPS+, 84, with at least 200 hits. It was broken in 2006 by Juan Pierre with an OPS+ of 82.
Leo Durocher was the first Yankee to wear number 7.
Ruffing with Boston:
39 – 96
Ruffing with The Bronx:
231 – 124
__________
He came into the league the Youngest player.
And retired the 2nd Oldest.
Red Kress question: Was it Mark Whiten on 7-31-1998?
It was Whiten, who allowed a run, a hit, two walks and hit a batter. Kress had a cleaner frame, allowing only a hit.
Bob Weiland question: Not sure of this but was it Eddie Murray who hit a 3-run HR off Tim Sherrill on 6-16-1991?
That’s correct.
#2 (Doc Cramer) – Juan Pierre, in 6835 NL PAs, had a .070 ISO. That’s my guess.
#14 (Arndt Jorgens) – Jack O’Connor was traded to the Yankees (nee Highlanders) on 10/6/1903.
#15 (John Stone) – Tony Olivia, in 1964-1965, had 6.8 and 5.4 WAR, respectively, while hitting .323 and .321, respectively, while winning both batting titles.
#18 (Sam Leslie) – I’m sure about Jack Fournier. I think Babe Herman is one of them, but I’m not positive he got 1500 PAs as a 1B in Brooklyn. I’m even more skeptical of Augie Galan, but that’s my third guess. If I had to make a fourth guess to cover my hide, it would be that Pedro Guerrero is the other. But I’m just not sure.
How’d I do?
Not bad, Dr Doom.
You got #14 and #15 right.
Juan Pierre is shy of the 2000 game qualifier, so he’s not the answer to #2.
Fournier is correct for #18, but not Herman, Galan or Guerrero.
Looks like O’Connor was traded from the Highlanders to the Browns for Norwegian John Anderson. There aren’t many Norwegians named O’Connor.
Dr. Doom: It was just a joke. Of course you meant “from” rather than “to” in your comment.
Ha! Yes, I DID mean “from” rather than “to.”
Doug, for some reason, I was thinking 2000 PAs, not 2000 G, and Juan Pierre was the first name that came to mind. And since he had like 6000 or 7000 NL PAs, it didn’t even occur to me that he might not be the answer! Lloyd Waner and his .077 ISO`
Ha! Yes, I DID mean “from” rather than “to.”
Doug, for some reason, I was thinking 2000 PAs, not 2000 G, and Juan Pierre was the first name that came to mind. And since he had like 6000 or 7000 NL PAs, it didn’t even occur to me that he might not be the answer! Lloyd Waner and his .077 ISO was my next guess – but I see he only played 1993 games!
1. (Ruffing) 30-decision seasons have gone the way of the dodo, so I am going to guess Brian Kingman, Doug.
No, not Kingman. Have to go back further than that.
roger craig in 1962 for the Mets (10-24) He was a remarkable 15-45 over 1962/63. ERA+ of 92 both years, which while sub-par, isn’t gruesome. I guess he pitched to the score
30+ decision seasons, by decade:
136 — 1960s
188 — 1970s
66 — 1980s
30 — 1990s
19 — 2000s
———
2 — 2010 only (Halladay and Waino both with 31 decisions out of 33 starts that year)
0 — 2011 to 2014
Not that far back.
After his sub-.300 season, he was a 20-game winner the next two years.
Randy Jones in 1974 for the Padres when he went 8-22.
First one of these I’ve answered in a long time.
Bang on, Hartvig.
I seem to remember reading Jones’s fastball was in the mid-70 MPH range. Evidently a guy who needed pinpoint location or he’d get tattooed.
Doc Cramer question: Is it Lloyd Waner?
Almost right. Waner is just shy of the 2000 game qualifier.
Leo Durocher question: Billy Hunter?
Hunter is correct. His 37 OPS+ in 1953 is the lowest in a qualifying (modern standard) debut season. That season is also the only one by a rookie with -2 oWAR and +2 dWAR.
Another stab at the Cramer question–how about Brett Butler?
No, not Butler.
Danny MacFayden question: Mike Moore
Danny MacFayden question: Mike Moore
Moore is correct.
Surprising he’s the only one. Five sub-.400 seasons doesn’t seem that far beyond the realm of possibility. I suppose, though, with 5 and 6 man rotations, if a guy is not on his game, he’ll probably won’t get the 25 or 30 starts he’ll need to make 20 decisions.
Right behind Moore, incidentally, is Steve Carlton with 4 such seasons. Edwin Jackson and Jamey Wright each have 3 seasons, the most among active pitchers.
One more shot at the Cramer question: Is it Richie Ashburn (.074)? If so, I should be ashamed of myself, because I’ve been voting for the guy almost every round.
Ashburn is correct.
My guess was Otis Nixon, though I was pretty sure he didn’t cross the 2000-game threshold. He didn’t, only 1700+ G.
But using 1500 games as the cutoff, Nixon’s career ISO isn’t just the lowest for any outfielder; it is the lowest for any major leaguer since 1901 with that many games played.
Lowest ISO, 1500+ games:
.044 — Otis Nixon
.046 — George McBride
.049 — Miller Huggins
.050 — Maury Wills, Donie Bush
.052 — Mark Belanger, Bud Harrelson
.056 — Wally Gerber
.058 — Tim Foli
.060 — Larry Bowa, Don Kessinger, Ivy Olson
Part of the reason Nixon is so low is because of how often he tried to bunt for a hit. Data only goes back to 1988 so the first 20% or so of his PAs are missing. Extrapolating, Nixon probably is right there with Juan Pierre and Kenny Lofton, those three trailing only the extrapolated totals for Brett Butler for most bunt base hits in the past 30 years.
That said, Nixon’s success rate on bunt attempts is less impressive. His .428 BA when bunting for a base hit ranks only 9th of 12 players with 200 attempts.
Generated 2/3/2015.
Oh, cool, bunt stats! I wasn’t aware you could get this from the split finder, thanks Doug.
I wish we knew Rod Carew’s success rate. He didn’t bunt often, but he was wildly successful when he did. Best I’ve ever seen at the surprise bunt.
Freddie Lindstrom question: Bernie Williams
Williams is correct. Others to get 200 hits every time they hit 175 or more:
3 – Lefty O’Doul
2 – Mo Vaughn, Dale Mitchell, Mickey Vernon, Beau Bell, Woody English, Johnny Frederick, Carson Bigbee
Jack Rothrock question: Ray Jablonski in 1953
Not the first guy you would have thought of, was it?
Pujols missed by one game in 2001.
Rick Ferrell question: Butch Wynegar (12.4%) and Mark McLemore (12.1%).
Correct.
And, the answer for lowest OPS+ walking in 13% of 5000+ PA is Willie Randolph with 104 and 13.1%.
Wally Berger question: George Watkins
Wally Berger question: George Watkins
It is Watkins, who debuted in 1930 just shy of his 30th birthday. Watkins got his late start owing to late start in organized baseball at age 25 in the class D East Texas League. Watkins, who had been an oil field worker, got that opportunity after being spotted in a post-season exhibition series between teams of local amateurs and local professionals, the latter including some major leaguers.
Watkins’ had a .373/.415/.621 slash in his rookie year, the BA second best and SLG third best in 400 PA rookie seasons since 1901. He never approached either mark again, but remained a useful hitter for a few more years, including 30 doubles in each of his first 3 seasons, one of only 20 such players since 1901 (including none in the 40 years between the debuts of Yaz and Pujols).
In the outfield, Watkins had good range and a good arm, though his high error rate suggests he may not always have been on target with his throws.
Watkins was the Cardinals’ hero in game 7 of the 1931 WS, scoring in the first inning from 3rd base when the catcher soft-tossed down to first base for the putout on a dropped third strike. In the 3rd inning, he walloped a 2-run homer to give St. Louis all the runs they would need in a 4-2 win.
Jack Russell question: Greg Cadaret
Cadaret is also one of 28 pitchers (Brian Duensing is the most recent) with exactly two seasons of 10 starts and 30 relief outings. Only Firpo Marberry (4), Tom Gordon (3) and Tim Wakefield (3) have more.
The voting for this round is over, so I’ve updated the post with quiz answers.
Thanks for playing along.
All voting for this round closes at 11:59 PM EST Saturday, February 7
Don’t scare me like that I’m waiting to knock some people off man
Sorry.
I was sure it was February 5th, earlier. Did birtelcom extend the time?
One of the great “What if?” questions for me is What if Bob Johnson had gotten an earlier start to his major league career. As it was, he’s in a group of outfielders just outside serious COG consideration, but the rest of the group all started no later than age 22, five years before Johnson.
Generated 1/30/2015.
Give Johnson 5 more years, his counting stats would probably look like 2700 hits, 400 HR, 1700 RBI, 1500 BB. That is pretty select company, and I mean really select.
Generated 1/30/2015.
Doug,
Per b-ref, Johnson’s minor league career didn’t start until age 23. I guess he was digging ditches or working the oil fields from 18-22? And, then he signs a contact at 23? If they would have found him at 18, maybe he makes the Hall of Fame, barring injury, of course. Obviously, that wouldn’t happen today…
Also, per b-ref, he’s “Indian Bob”. Can you imagine in 2015 someone called, “Dago Dave”, “Jewish Jake”, or “Black Bob”?
Alomar, Killebrew, Winfield.
Funny thing:
Bob Johnson’s older brother Roy was the same way only more so: He got into pro ball late, age 25, came up the next year to be an immediate starter for Detroit. Smaller, less powerful and not the hitter Bob was.
Johnson had the second highest OPS+ for qualifying players in his next to last season. His OPS+ of 174 in 1944 trails only Ed Delahanty’s 187 in 1902. Of course the ML talent was a bit weaker in 1944 due to WWII.
Of course, Indian Bob was putting up STELLAR numbers in his late 30s, due to WWII (174 OPS+ at age 38!). So we have to take the stats he did put up with a grain of salt. Considering he would’ve been a bit player as a teen, I think we can pretty much consider his numbers as they stand to be fair, without making a war adjustment to what he did. That still leaves him, as you say, a bit short of serious COG consideration. I will freely admit, though, that if a post-integration player put up those same career stats, I would probably consider him a serious candidate. That’s just my take, though.
Earl Averill also started in MLB at 27, and Sam Rice became a regular at age 27. If Bob Johnson had a few more “hang around” years, he might be a real HOF/ COG candidate.
@30,
#9 above: The most such seasons consecutively of qualifying 125 OPS+:
Ty Cobb had 19 such seasons, from 1907-1925. If you don’t think he ‘qualified’ in 1914 (he was awarded the Batting Title), Hank Aaron had 18 such seasons from 1955-1972.
#19 above: Charlie Gehringer – 87 XBH in 1936: 60 2B, 12 3B, 15 HR. Even with a .354 BA, he “only” had a 142 OPS+.
Did NOT use the B-R index. I swear. Really. Cross my heart etc…
My recent posts again not showing on ‘Recent Comments’.
Cobb is the right answer.
It was fewer than 15 HR, so Gehringer is not the right answer for 19.
Stan the Man in 1943—48, 20, 13.
Musial is the one.
Most since Stan is 73 (55 + 7 + 11) by Matt Carpenter in 2013.
More Nettles Propaganda
WAR for some of the contenders in this round:
Eddie Murray+ (21) 68.3
Graig Nettles (22) 68.0
Dwight Evans (20) 66.9
Roberto Alomar+ (17) 66.8
Joe Cronin+ (20) 66.4
Jim Edmonds (17) 60.3
Look who is near the top.
BTW, that’s more than the deservedly esteemed Erine Banks.
In the history of the game, only eleven players have over 50 oWAR and 20 dWAR. Nettles is one of them.
During the 70’s, he was fourth in WAR for the decade (more than his Yankee teammate Reggie Jackson, btw), second in dWAR (ahead of B. Robinson, BTW–Belanger was first), and sixth in HR.
390 career HRs–only a few 3B ahead of him.
For those of you critical of his batting average: in the 70’s, Nettles and Mike Schmidt had .254 and .255 BA’s. Bet most of you are surprised it’s only .001 difference, eh?
Nobody seems to vote for him unless I do this.
Good stuff again, I meant to say that last time. You forced me to reconsider Nettles. I think we as a community, in mulling over whether to get Bando, Boyer, Bell, or Nettles back onto the ballot, probably picked the right guy.
Joseph, he also led the AL in games played for the ’70s (second in MLB to Rose) and has a nice postseason record to boot.
Thank you, Bstar. Also, Nettles led the league twice in WAR for position players, has tons of defensive black ink, was the ALCS MVP in 1976, and once rescued a dog from drowning. Okay, I made up that dog thing. Sorry.
He had a better peak than a lot of guys we look at too. Over 9 years he hit a respectable 88 RBAT but also had 151 RFIELD and AVERAGED 157 games a season for over 50 WAR (at almost a 6WAR per season clip). Lou Whitaker only in two seasons reached the output that Nettles AVERAGED over 9 consecutive years.
I’d eat my hat if there’s another candidate we would even consider failing to put in who sustained >4.5 WAR over 9 straight years. That’s got to be a pretty short list.
Interesting about the peak WAR.
I found 31 position players who had at least 9 seasons with >= 4.5 WAR. (I could have missed some–not sure how to use the play index that precisely.
Of those 31 players, only 17 had at least 9 consecutive seasons >= 4.5 WAR (by the way, I counted them if they missed time for military service if they had at least 4.5 in each full year before and after service).
Also, of those 31 players who had at least 9 seasons with 4.5 WAR or better, 28 are eligible for the HOF. Only one isn’t in it–Nettles.
The three who are out are Jim Thome, Scott Rolen, and Pete Rose.
I think Thome will make it into the HOF. Rolen, I think is doubtful. And we know about Pete Rose.
Interesting to me that the two players with such great peaks are both 3rd basemen with high dWAR.
Joseph: My PI search shows 50 position players with WAR >= 4.5. I have found 24 of them with 9 consecutive such seasons, although I might be off on that number.
Of course I meant WAR with at least 9 seasons of WAR >= 4.5.
I wasn’t sure I ran the search right, so I’m not surprised you got a different number.
How did you search? I looked at all the 4.5 WAR seasons (and up) and then sorted them by name and tried to count all the names. Very awkward.
@125
Here’s how I found the 50 players. On the PI select:
Batting Season Finder
Players with Seasons Matching Criteria
Non-pitcher
WAR>= 4.5
Get Report
For the 9 consecutive seasons:
Without changing any of the above settings
Set the seasons from First to 9th
Get Report
Scan the results for all players with 9 seasons and then see if the From…To years span 9 years. Write down the names.
Then set the seasons to 2nd to 10th and repeat.
Then set the seasons from 3rd to 11th and repeat. Keep repeating until you have covered all the years.
Okay–I found the 50 players; I used the “Find Players with Seasons Matching Criteria.” It lists all the players who had a season over 4.5 WAR, and the number of seasons.
Then you can click on the player names to look at the individual seasons.
But just considering the 50 with 9 seasons >= 4.5 WAR, 40 of them are in the HOF (regardless of whether they were consecutive or not).
Of the 10 not in the HOF, 6 aren’t eligible (Including P. Rose).
One is Barry Bonds, who might as well not be eligible for all practical purposes (for now).
Bagwell is one and he might make it into the HOF. One is E. Martinez, who is in the COG, but may never get into the HOF.
And the last one is Nettles.
Brown
Reuschel
Killebrew
Cronin, Tiant, Evans
although I am sure that i have betrayed my team bias before this, i think this is my first all Red Sox vote
Killer, Murray, El Tiante
Killebrew, Alomar, Murray
Analysis of this week’s candidates…
CATCHER
Roy Campanella
.276 / .360 / .500 / .860 / 123
Offensive force at Catcher for 5 pennant winners.
Short career due to segregation.
_________
FIRST BASE
Harmon Killebrew
573 HR
1559 BB
.256 / .376 / .509 / .884 / 143
The first TTO (three true outcome) player.
When he retired in 1975, he was
2nd in SO
5th in HR
7th in BB
Mickey Mantle is the only other guy in that range.
But the Mick ended with a .298 BA. Harmon was .256
____________
Eddie Murray
3255 Hits
560 2B
504 HR
1917 RBI
(The only player to exceed the above four counting stats – Henry Aaron)
.287 / .359 / .476 / .836 / 129
____________
SECOND BASE
Roberto Alomar
2724 Hits
504 2B
474 SB
.300 / .371 / .443 / .814 / 116
Alomar has been on our ballot forever and a half. And he’s got some real support thus far this week. Fair to ask the question: If Biggio, why not Alomar?
Star player for 4 different franchises.
Post season hero.
Defensive reputation much better than the metrics.
__________
THIRD BASE
Graig Nettles
2225 Hits
390 HR
.248 / .329 /.421 / .750 /110
Elite defender. 5 Pennants.
___________
SHORT STOP
Joe Cronin
2285 Hits
515 2B
1424 RBI
.301 / .390 / .468 / .857 / 119
Player/Manager in his mid-20’s.
Took himself out of the lineup with gas in the tank.
A true leader.
The stats are more than good enough. The narrative makes him great.
_________
LEFT FIELD
Minnie Minoso
192 HBP
.298 / .389 / .459 / .848 / 130
Shorter career due to segregation. But also played at age 54.
(and 67. And 77. St Paul Saints)
Power, speed, good eye, defense.
___________
CENTER FIELD
Richie Ashburn
2574 Hits
274 SB (during a no-steal era)
.308 / .396 / .382 / .778 / 111
Great defense, speed, on-base catalyst.
___________
Jim Edmonds
393 HR
.284 / .376 / .527 / .903 / 132
Great defense.
Big power from the CF position. Overlooked due to the offensive era he played in.
___________
RIGHT FIELD
Dwight Evans
2446 Hits
385 HR
1470 Runs
1391 BB
.272 / .370 / .470 / .840 / 127
Always above average, rarely great.
The only player to start 100+ games from all 9 batting order positions?
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?id=evansdw01&year=Career&t=b#lineu::none
___________
Dave Winfield
3110 Hits
465 HR
1833 RBI
.283 / .353 / .475 / .827 / 130
Exceptionally long career. Often threw his bat deep into the stands. Defensive reputation far exceeded his metrics.
________
PITCHER
Kevin Brown
211 – 144 (.594)
3.28
1.222
Dominant peak. Disliked for a huge contract, surly attitude, and PED suspicion.
__________
David Cone
194 – 126 (.606)
3.46
1.256
Rate stats phenomenal if you remove his last 3 years.
Part of Yankees dynasty. Cerebral assassin.
___________
Don Drysdale
209 – 166 (.557)
2.95
1.148
Led the league in GS four years in a row for a dominant Dodger team.
Five pennants, three rings. Good hitter.
________________
Dennis Eckersley
197 – 171 (.535)
3.50
1.161
390 Saves
Two-career pitcher.
Redefined (for better and worse) the closer role.
___________
Wes Ferrell
193 – 128 (.601)
4.04
1.481
also…
.280 / .351 / .446 / .797 / 100
A workhorse pitcher who thrice led the league in IP.
Also an unparalleled hitter from the pitcher’s spot.
His top similarity score on offense is Brandon Belt.
____________
Rick Reuschel
214 – 191 (.528)
3.37
1.275
Workhorse on mostly mediocre teams.
___________
Red Ruffing
273 – 225 (.548)
3.80
1.341
also…
.269 / .306 / .389 / .695 / 81
Was 39 – 93 through age 24.
Then won 234 more games and 6 WS rings.
Also a hitter.
_________
Luis Tiant
229 – 172 (.571)
3.30
1.199
Dominant at times, average at others. No clearly defined peak. Cuban hero.
Nettles, Ashburn, Murray.
Murray, Alomar, Drysdale
FYI – Paul E.’s ballot at #41 hasn’t been counted yet.
Birtelcom:
Looks like there’s a vote hidden at the end of @41 (Paul E) that got missed.
Thanks, David and Dave! This round looks like it could be a very competitive election and we certainly don’t want to miss any votes in the tallying.
Ashburn Reuschel Ruffing
Alomar, Miñoso, Nettles.
Killebrew, Cronin, and Eckersley
Cronin, Brown, Ruffing.
Graig Nettles
Joe Cronin
Rick Reuschel
Red Ruffing, Harmon Killebrew; and Roy Campanella
Roberto Alomar – Richie Ashburn – Eddie Murray
Murray, Reuschel, Winfield
Kevin Brown… Eddie Murray… Roy Campanella…
Are my votes.
EMurray, Killebrew, Edmonds
(although I might trade Edmonds later)
Wes Ferrell, Drysdale, Nettles
Artie is always my favorite voter 😉
Murray, Cronin, Minoso
Killebrew, Winfield, Murray
Campanella, Tiant, Minoso
For the 1906 election, I’m voting for:
-Dave Winfield
-Eddie Murray
-Roberto Alomar
Other top candidates I considered highly (and/or will consider in future rounds):
-Cronin
-Eckersley
-Killebrew
-Brown
-Reuschel
-Tiant
-Cone
-Evans
-Nettles
-Ashburn
-Drysdale
-Edmonds
Shaping up to be another close one. If my calculations are correct the top 4 vote getters (Murray, Alomar, Killebrew & Cronin) now have 14, 12, 11 & 11 votes respectively. I’ll be surprised if this isn’t still in doubt on the final day and maybe even down to the final hours. I also suspect that we’re going to lose at least 1 and maybe more of our holdovers.
Changing my vote to Nettles, Alomar, and Cronin. I just want to see a three way tie for first with the result of getting three deserving players in. And keeping Nettles on the ballot.
A tie results in a runoff vote, not in multiple inductees. Never more (or less) than one inductee per round.
Thanks for the information. I didn’t know. So be it. I’ll stick with my change nevertheless.
Back from and extended break, I’m going with Cronin, Alomar, and I’m going with Nettles over Tiant for my fringe candidate.
The current tally, through 40 ballots (up to and including the ballot @137):
14 Alomar
13 Cronin, Murray
11 Killebrew
=========== 25%^
9 Brown
7 Campanella, Nettles
6 Ruffing, Tiant
5 Ashburn, Minoso, Reuschel, Winfield
4 Eckersley
=========== 10%^
3 Drysdale, W Ferrell
2 Johnson
1 Edmonds, Evans
0 Cone
No Cone votes?! Hmm, I’ve been busy so I haven’t been able to think about the vote (plus there are a few people I want to save so it makes more sense to wait in this round anyway to see who might need it), but to me Cone is the most interesting of the 5 recent returnees from redemption. I think Nettles (and maybe Drysdale) has a case over him in terms of votes, but in terms of players who were good and never quite recognized as being as good as they were, David Cone is an interesting study. I’d love to see him stick around… hopefully that total picks up quick!
I’m doing an audit right now, and that’s what I have as of this point in the balloting, as well.
Question about Wes Ferrell, who seems like an unusual case to me: Am I reading it correctly that in round numbers more or less, his oWAR comes from positional scarcity? Does that mean, that as a batter overall, he is about a replacement level hitter–but for a pitcher he is a really good hitter?
Joseph – Ferrel has a -6 Rbat which means he was slightly below average as a hitter (compared to all other hitters during his era). So he’d have positive oWAR regardless of positional scarcity.
Good question.
Here are the players in Ferrell’s range of OPS+ between 1927-1941, with 1000-1500 PA:
Estel Crabtree
99 .OPS+
2.8 oWar
-9 .Rpos
Cliff Heathcote
99 .OPS+
2.8 oWar
-11 Rpos
Wes Ferrell
100 OPS+
12.7 oWar
143 Rpos
Larry Rosenthal, Outfielder
101 OPS+
4.6 oWar
-11 Rpos
Bama Rowell
100 OPS+
4.6 oWar
8 ..Rpos
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/rosenla01.shtml#1936-1941-sum:batting_value
Joseph – I would step away from Ferrell for a second and look at someone like Ozzie Smith. He has 47.8 oWAR, but -117 Rbat (he was not very good at the plate early in his career). Now, Ozzie has some things that help out his oWAR that Ferrell doesn’t – he has 102 Rbaser+Rdp, so basically he has -15 “Roffense” without including any position adjustments. Ferrell somehow has 2 Rbaser+Rdp despite zeroes in the individual season columns, so I’m guessing he has some fractional values in there. It would give Ferrell -4 “Roffense”.
Ozzie’s oWAR is essentially driven by (1) Rpos and (2) Rrep. Smith’s Rpos+Rrep=502, which when added to his -15 “Roffense” gets us to 487 “Rstuff without including Rfield” and gives us his 47.8 oWAR.
Well, Ferrell gets no Rrep in his career, so his oWAR is essentially being driven by his positional scarcity. But Ozzie’s is being driven by the same thing.
The guys Voomo mentions are all basically outfielders, except Bama Rowell. Look at Dick Bartell, a contemporary of Ferrell who played shortstop, and you will see the same picture as the one with Ozzie, but Bartell is probably a better “comp” for Ferrell because he’s a better hitter than Ozzie but not as good on the bases. Bartell had a 96 OPS+, -24 Rbat, -6 Rbaser, 0 Rdp, but 36.3 oWAR because he had 117 Rpos and 268 Rrep. His oWAR is being driven by being a league average hitter at the shortstop position.
Now, if you scale Ferrell up to 8,000 or 10,000 PAs his oWAR will dwarf that of Bartell and Ozzie. But realistically we could probably only double Ferrell’s PAs as a pitcher – even Cy Young “only” had 3000 PAs and he pitched forever. He just wouldn’t have had the opportunity, even in a career as long as Young’s, to amass an oWAR total as large as Bartell or Smith while only pitching (and pinch hitting) because he couldn’t pitch every day.
And yes, it looks like he’s getting Rpos even when he pinch hits, but someone on another post tried to determine the impact that would have on Ferrell’s overall WAR numbers and it was not very large (maybe 2-3 WAR, max).
I’d not previously noticed on how b-ref’s WAR calculation on the offense side treats pitchers differently than other positions. For all positions except pitcher, Rbat (and Rbase, etc.) are “compared to average” numbers that are then subject to two adjustments: (1) a positive playing time adjustment reflecting the difference between “compared to average” and “compared to replacement level” and (2) a positional adjustment that is negative for DH, 1B, LF and RF, and positive for the other positions. For pitchers, though, there is no playing time adjustment, just the positional adjustment. Not sure of the implications of that variation, I’m just observing, as I’d not previously noticed it.
And the conclusion you reach from this is? Because I’m not sure I understand everything you wrote.
Artie
oWAR = ndWAR, or “no-defense” WAR
oWAR = afWAR, or “average-fielding” WAR
oWAR was specifically designed to give people who so mistrust defensive metrics that they’d rather ignore it entirely a chance to use WAR. That’s ALL it is meant for.
oWAR is WAR with Rfield = 0.
Except no one looks at Ozzie’s career as if he had been an average-fielding shortstop, not even those who are skeptical of fielding metrics. That would be silly.
Looking at Ozzie’s WAR with Rfield set to zero is about as useful as looking at Babe Ruth’s career with RBat equal to zero.
that was me a few rounds ago during one of our previous Ferrell discussions. When I started examining it, I realized he was getting credit for being a pitcher even when he wasn’t pitching. But it turned out to have a pretty small effect since most of his PAs did come while pitching. I can’t remember the exact number, but I think was just under 2 WAR.
Note that a couple people disagreed with me that he should be adjusted down and treated as a pinch hitter (0 rPos) for those appearances, — they thought his pinch hit appearances were still worth something more because you could theoretically leave him in as a pitcher.
I think that beyond theoretically leaving him in as a pitcher, it’s also more about the team makeup in the long term. Like, for a game, I can see the point that he shouldn’t get ‘credit’ for being a pitcher when he is not pitching. But in the longer run, I think he should get credit for being a spot in the lineup that can pinch hit but also pitch as his primary role. That adds value to the team as it opens up a roster spot that would be taken up by, say, a pinch-hitter who couldn’t play a position regularly. I too have come to the conclusion, though, that the effect is minor enough to not really quibble about in itself. Just wanted to note the small difference between what you’re saying and what I believe others were trying to say, or at least how I was viewing it.
Alomar, Minoso & Dw Evans
For the win:
– Roberto Alomar (old friend from nearly the start)
Continuing in my role as ‘The Patron Saint Of Lost COG Causes’:
– Dwight Evans
– Jim Edmonds
Brown, Cone, Ferrell
Joe Cronin, David Cone, ………I’ll say Bob Johnson
was trying to decide between Ruffing and Johnson. I’m going with the underrated guy Bob Johnson. Great slugger and hitter who was on poor teams for most of his career. I’ll probably vote for Ruffing next year after Cone drops off the ballot with just my one vote (unless somebody better comes along).
Alomar, Tiant, Winfield
Reuschel, Cronin, W. Ferrell
Sorry for not updating vote totals this round. I’ve been swamped at work, both during work hours and in the evenings. But I had half an hour this morning, so I thought I’d finally update everyone.
I like the presentation style David Horwich used above, so I’m copying it. Here are the candidate, through T-Bone’s vote @157, the 46th ballot cast:
17 – Roberto Alomar
15 – Joe Cronin
13 – Eddie Murray
=========================25%
11 – Harmon Killebrew
10 – Kevin Brown
7 – Roy Campanella, Graig Nettles, Luis Tiant
6 – Minnie Minoso, Rick Reuschel, Red Ruffing, Dave Winfield
5 – Richie Ashburn, Wes Ferrell
=========================10%
4 – Dennis Eckersley
3 – Don Drysdale, Dwight Evans, Bob Johnson
2 – David Cone, Jim Edmonds
Harmon Killebrew is, as per usual, right on the precipice of 25%. Kevin Brown’s not far off.
Dennis Eckersley is not at risk of falling off the ballot, even without further support, as he is not on the bubble. The other “below the line” players ARE all bubble-candidates. In fact, everyone below the “magic number” of 7 votes* except for Eckersley and Rick Reuschel is on the bubble, so they all need votes if they’re to stay on the ballot.
Bob Johnson, as the solid #3 newcomer (with Joe Cronin the top and Red Ruffing the #2), is making a nice showing in the balloting so far. He’s not on pace to be kept on the ballot, but once you get to 3 votes, you’re really proving to be more than just a “shout-out” kind of guy. Impressive.
*I say 7 is the “magic number” because we usually have < or = 70 voters, so 7 total votes is usually what's required to stay on the ballot; Roy Campanella and Graig Nettles are ALSO on the bubble, but both currently have 7 votes. An extra couple of votes cast this round, though, and 7 may not be enough.
Doom – Cronin’s not a newcomer. He debuted last round.
You are correct. Whoops.
Doom – As penance you are required to vote for Cronin next round, if he’s still on the ballot. 🙂
That’s… totally fair. Okay. He’s on my short list, anyway. I’ll do it (assuming I remember; remind me if I don’t)!
Alomar, Campanella, Ashburn.
Vote:
Joe Cronin
Dennis Eckersley
Wes Ferrell
I’m fine with any of the top 3 winning so I’m going to outdo Saint Lawrence Azrin in his role as ‘The Patron Saint Of Lost COG Causes’:
Dyrsdale, Evans, Edmonds
Cronin, Murray & Killebrew
As a Mets fan, I think there are at least 1000 players I feel more deserving than Alomar.
As a fellow Mets fan, I know how you feel. But maybe its time to: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=moSFlvxnbgk
I thought it was going to be a link to this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mnu9DCLJtRE
Edmonds, Eck, Winfield.
Killebrew; Ruffing; Dwight Evans
Cronin
Ferrell
Winfield
Apologies. To be clear: Wes Ferrell
That creates a tie at the top for the moment, through 53 votes, assuming I haven’t miscounted anybody.
Definitely down with Joe Cronin. I’ve got to stay consistent and give him a dash of credit for player-managing (I did it with Boudreau), especially with horse’s asses like Lefty Grove and Wes Ferrell constantly undermining his authority. That had to be taxing. I also think he likely ended his career as a starter at short due to guilt/criticism from the Pee-Wee-Reese-escaping-to-the-Bums thing. But the Sox did fine at short in the ’40s without Reese — a succession of Cronin/Pesky/Vern Stephens was well above average. So Cronin’s a definite yes.
But so is Roberto Alomar, and he has languished on the ballot (and off) for too long.
So I will vote for both and extend a shout-out vote to the likely-unelectable Indian Bob. Would some Minnie Minoso voter mind explaining how his career outdoes Johnson’s? I just can’t see it from a numbers perspective. Is it just that Minoso is the Latin Jackie Robinson? It seems to me that Johnson should probably get more “what-if” credit than Minoso since his career started even later than Minnie’s.
VOTE: Cronin, Alomar, Bob Johnson
Bstar – What I’ve heard Minoso supporters say is that they believe he was discriminated against, therefore costing him lots of WAR. The evidence for that though is negligible at best. While he potentially lost some playing time due discrimination, the bigger factor is that he was signed by the Indians, a team that was stacked in the outfield. Of course, being blocked happens to lots of players. It doesn’t mean we should give them extra credit.
I agree, David. The “blocked” angle is a bit much for me. I’m sure as a Cleveland guy you’ve heard about Brian Giles being potentially Hall-worthy because of that talented Indians OF blocking him in the mid ’90s.
Thanks for the response, though.
Bstar – I hadn’t heard that re: Giles. And it seems to me the people who are claiming that don’t know the full story. The Indians were never really high on Giles, because they saw him as a platoon player. Indeed his righty-lefty split is one of the highest of his era. And the Indians already had Thome, who had the highest split of the era. So yeah, Giles was blocked for a bit but there were other factors at work as well.
The guy I can’t figure out is Bobby Abreu. He was a top 50 prospect, the Astros has a mediocre outfield at best, yet he put in 2 1/2 years in AAA.
According to B-R’s bullpen Johnson failed to impress in a number of minor league tryouts until his brother finally made it to the majors & someone finally decided to take a chance on him. Even then his numbers were nothing special his first couple of years before his breakthru at age 25. Not entirely unreasonable that Philadelphia wanted to see if he could do it again before giving him a shot. In addition his last 4 seasons were during the war with all that entails.
On the other hand Minoso played in Cuba prior to spending the 3 years after the war in the Negro League before finally getting a chance to play a full season in the PCL. And even though he only played in 137 games that year (others played as many as 189) he finished in the top 10 in runs scored before his monster season the following year finally earned him a shot at the majors.
Bob Johnson is a really good player, one of the very few from his era who probably actually do belong in the HOF who isn’t.
But at least based on what I know I don’t see any reason to believe that his shot at playing in the major leagues was significantly delayed in any way plus he benefited by not losing any time to WW2. I don’t see any reason to give him any credit for being anything other than the player he was.
I realize that Minoso has to be given pretty much every benefit of the doubt for him to rise to the level of the COG and even then it’s not a clear cut case (mostly because for each of those last half a dozen or so spots there are 2 or 3 guys that are all about equally well qualified).
I was a strong supporter of Minoso when he first came on the ballot & I’ve voted for him since then. But at least part of my original support for him was based on the confusion over his age & since he is the one saying he’s 3 years younger than the records originally stated I see no reason to doubt that is correct. So upon further reflection and a clearer picture of the remaining pool of players that we’ll have to consider I’ve decided that he falls just short of the mark.
But if it somehow comes down to Minoso or Johnson I’m going with the Cuban Comet every time.
After doing some thinking, I am issuing a formal “never mind” on Minoso vs. Bob Johnson. Indian Bob *may* have been the better player (none of us will ever really know, will we?) but surely Minoso’s impact on the game and the way he helped usher in not only a better, more complete brand of baseball but the way he, Jackie, et al likely forced so many Americans to alter their views on things far more important than a game cannot be overstated.
Johnson, Nettles, Alomar
OK, bstar has me convinced. What I usually do when I can’t decide between two players is to check their OPS+ which I forgot to do this time. Johnson’s 139 beats Minoso’s 130. Accordingly my vote is now Cronin, Murray, Johnson
Richard, thanks, but the time to change a vote expired Thursday midnight.
Oh well, next time I’ll be more careful.
Happy Saturday, everyone!
Usually, things are pretty dead around here at HHS on Saturdays, but perhaps today will be a bit different, what with it being the final day of COG voting. Anyway, I thought I’d give one last brief update of votes, through Doug @186 (vote #55):
20 – Roberto Alomar
19 – Joe Cronin
14 – Eddie Murray
=====================25%
13 – Harmon Killebrew
10 – Kevin Brown
8 – Roy Campanella, Graig Nettles, Dave Winfield
7 – Wes Ferrell, Red Ruffing, Luis Tiant
6 – Richie Ashburn, Dennis Eckersley, Minnie Minoso, Rick Reuschel
=====================10%
5 – Dwight Evans, Bob Johnson
4 – Don Drysdale, Jim Edmonds
2 – David Cone
As everyone knows, I’m sure, we have a VERY tight race at the top.
Eddie Murray is barely hanging onto his 10%.
David Cone would have to be named on just about every ballot cast henceforth to be saved this round, meaning he’s done for. Everyone else certainly has at least a shot, though.
Finally, since we’re unlikely to get 16+ voters today, 7 is the magic number of votes to be “in.” 6 actually MIGHT do the trick, if we keep it to 5 or fewer voters today, though I think that’s unlikely – there are too many 11th-hour voters for us to keep it to an number that low.
By the way, I don’t know if anyone else has noticed this, but the total number of voters we get in a given round is, more or less, directly proportional to the quality of the top candidate. I guess for our occasional voters, it’s more fun to be able to cast a vote for Stan Musial or Jackie Robinson than for Joe Cronin or Roberto Alomar. I just think that’s interesting.
“Eddie Murray is barely hanging onto his 10%.” Ummm…I think you mean his 25%. 🙂
Indeed, I meant 25%. I also meant to say that, as per usual, Harmon is right around the 25% borderline. He loves to hang out just below that.
Cronin, Murray, Killebrew.
Interesting round (for me). More often than not, by the time I vote, the “win” has already been won and I do my bit to keep the bubble big; I like a big bubble (or, more accurately, I hate limited choices).
But here’s Joe Cronin (whom I consider COG worthy) in a dog fight with Robby Alomar (whom I don’t consider COG worthy). Don’t bother trying to win me over on Alomar–I’m a Mets fan and he sucked in the Big Apple. And I realize saying this is likely going to spur Alomar supporters to jump off the sidelines and push him over the top, but I’ve got to do my part to try and keep him from the Circle (albeit in vain).
That only leaves me two “save” votes. Of the bubble candidates, I think Dewey Evans most deserving. Campy appears safe. That means one from among Minoso, Drysdale, Edmonds and Ashburn. Anybody got a four-sided coin? Even though Ashburn *could be* safe with just a small handful of final day votes coming in and Edmonds and Drysdale more in need of support, I think Richie is the most deserving in that group. So…..
Cronin, Evans, Ashburn it is.
??? Did Alomar do something heinous to Mets fans besides sucking?
Neither the 2002 or 2003 Mets were very good teams.
If the 7 WAR Alomar had shown up they would have been .500.
And none of the prospects they traded to get him turned into anything.
Vooms, there’s a few emotional factors in a Mets fan’s view of Alomar.
— He was the *second* 2B we got from Cleveland in a 5-year span who immediately fell off a cliff despite looking good the year before. Carlos Baerga came to the Mets in ’96 after hitting .314-15-90 in ’95, his fourth straight good year. He was just 27, but he was toast from day one.
— Alomar was 34 when we got him, but with *no* sign of decline — he had just posted career highs in BA, SLG, OPS+ and almost in WAR. We never saw that player. And he wore his abrupt decline on his sleeve, looking baffled and beaten most of the time.
— We didn’t *know* the Mets would suck in ’02. They were in the 2000 WS, then just over .500 in ’01. For ’02, we also brought in Mo Vaughn and Jeromy Burnitz, who’d each averaged about 35 HRs in his last 4 years. I don’t claim it’s right to expect 33/34-year-old players not to fade, but the fact that all 3 bombed together compounded the disappointment we felt towards each.
— There is a slight air of “overrated” on Alomar. His dWAR is miles out of whack with his 10 Gold Gloves. He has the magical .300 BA, but his OPS+ (and WAR) are worse than non-HOFers Whitaker and Grich. Any Mets fan hearing a suggestion that Alomar is a bit overrated has a gut reaction of “you’re damn right!”
In my sober moments, I admit that Robby was a great player. But until he’s in danger of falling off a ballot, or a boat, I feel no need to lend my support. 🙂
Well that all makes sense.
Looks like they brought back Roger Cedeno that year, as well, with the same result.
Actually Baerga was already in decline when the Mets acquired him. 453 PAs with a 76 OPS+ with Cleveland in ’96. And given his reputation for partying and being out of shape, it’s hardly a surprise that he never bounced back.
As for Alomar being overrated, that’s a matter of perspective. Obviously the advanced fielding metrics disagree with the eye test. I put more weight on the fielding metrics but we also know that they’re far less accurate than the offensive metrics. He has 66.8 WAR but it’s entirely conceivable that his “true” WAR is north of 70.
DRA does like Alomar’s defense a tad more, though he still doesn’t look like the all-time great he seemed to so many of us: +21 fielding runs overall. That right there would put him at 73 WAR if you subbed DRA for TZ.
I think his defensive WAR numbers, for me, are the biggest head-scratcher of them all. To others it’s Dave Winfield.
I still think of Alomar as a Blue Jay first and foremost.
One more thing: I’ve often wondered, in trying to guess why Alomar’s D numbers aren’t better, if the Astroturf in Toronto had something to do with his Rfield not being more positive in his early prime with the Jays. Did lots of balls skip through on the turf that Robbie may have snagged on a slower surface?
That’s my only guess, though it’s probably not worth much because, despite making a healthy amount of errors the first half of his career, Alomar was near the league-lead in putouts and fielding percentage often in Toronto. So I don’t know.
well, here’s my methodology – I compare players using a composite measure of 4 advanced stats (WAR, WAA+, JAWS and WAR/WAR*162GP or *250IP for pitchers) and give a cumulative ranking of all players on the ballot plus worthy newcomers (a ‘4’ would mean the player ranked first on the ballot on all 4 measures, an ’80’ would mean they ranked 20th on each).
Reuschel 9
Brown 9
Tiant 26
Cronin 28
Alomar 31
Cone 33
Nettles 34
Ferrell 34
Drysdale 34
Ruffing 38
Murray 40
Ashburn 44
Evans 46
Edmonds 46
Eckersley 49
Winfield 60
Johnson 63
Killebrew 64
Minoso 70
Campanella 80
Well. Cronin is pulling away from Alomar, and I have them ranked about the same. I think they should both be in. But there are too many players on the bubble that I want to see continue to vote for both of them, and I don’t favour one over the other, so maybe I’ll vote for neither. And, sigh, David Cone, who I rank barely behind both of these guys, looks like a sure goner. I’m going to cast a defiant vote for him anyway. Who knows, maybe the next 4 voters (that’s what it would take, jeez) might want to see him move on in the waning hours of this round. Drysdale is looking in deep trouble too (although if there is only 1 or 2 more voters and one votes for him beyond me, he’ll be good). Other than that? I think I’m fine with Edmonds falling off, I don’t think Johnson really deserves consideration, and of the guys at 6 I’m lukewarm at best on Evans and Minoso. So maybe make sure my #1 ranked guy doesn’t lose his extra round…
Reuschel, Cone, Drysdale.
Current totals, through #201, 58 ballots total. Players with asterisks are on the bubble:
21 Cronin
20 Alomar
15 Murray
=====================25%
14 Killebrew
10 Brown
8 Campanella*, Nettles*, Winfield*
7 Ashburn*, W Ferrell*, Reuschel, Ruffing*, Tiant
6 Eckersley, Evans*, Minoso*
=====================10%
5 Drysdale*, Johnson*
4 Edmonds*
3 Cone*
For the first time, I’m going to take a pass. To me, this feels like a redemption round with a lot of players who have their supporters, but no one I feel enthusiastic about. I’d be fine with voting for three when I feel there’s one that clearly ought to be in, but this group doesn’t, to me, have a true standout, and I don’t want my vote to have a disproportionate impact in a close election. I considered just voting for “saves” but I don’t think the bottom group is that worthy.
Wes Ferrell, Luis Tiant, Minnie Minoso.
Murray, Eckersley, Evans
No real preference with Alomar/Cronin, will be happy with either one winning. A shame Cone is being shunned, but too many equal/better pitchers to choose from, so my votes are going to help others who can benefit.
Murray, Alomar, Eck
Cone, Edmonds, Evans
I have Cronin/Alomar tied at 21 votes each, with Diamond King’s and B. Bingham’s recent votes. Those last two showed up earlier tonight on the main Recent Comments list but only just now in the actual comments to the voting post. Timing of the posting of comments has been eccentric at the site lately, but any votes that you timely cast will be counted in the final tally.