This post is for voting and discussion in the 82nd round of balloting for the Circle of Greats (COG). This round adds to the list of candidates eligible to receive your votes those players born in 1970. Rules and lists are after the jump.
Although we’ve been primarily going step-by-step back in time with our birth-year voting, once every real-world year we jump forward in time. One of the Circle of Greats rules is that no inductee can be younger than 44 years old upon induction, and with the turn of the calendar to 2015, all players born in 1970 can now meet that criterion. So we can safely jump forward to add players this round who were born in 1970.
The new group of 1970-born players, in order to join the eligible list, must, as usual, have played at least 10 seasons in the major leagues or generated at least 20 Wins Above Replacement (“WAR”, as calculated by baseball-reference.com, and for this purpose meaning 20 total WAR for everyday players and 20 pitching WAR for pitchers). This new group of 1970-born candidates joins the eligible holdovers from previous rounds to comprise the full list of players eligible to appear on your ballots.
Each submitted ballot, if it is to be counted, must include three and only three eligible players. As always, the one player who appears on the most ballots cast in the round is inducted into the Circle of Greats. Players who fail to win induction but appear on half or more of the ballots that are cast win four added future rounds of ballot eligibility. Players who appear on 25% or more of the ballots cast, but less than 50%, earn two added future rounds of ballot eligibility. Any other player in the top 9 (including ties) in ballot appearances, or who appears on at least 10% of the ballots, wins one additional round of ballot eligibility.
All voting for this round closes at 11:59 PM EST Sunday, January 18, while changes to previously cast ballots are allowed until 11:59 PM EST Friday, January 16.
If you’d like to follow the vote tally, and/or check to make sure I’ve recorded your vote correctly, you can see my ballot-counting spreadsheet for this round here: COG 1970 Vote Tally . I’ll be updating the spreadsheet periodically with the latest votes. Initially, there is a row in the spreadsheet for every voter who has cast a ballot in any of the past rounds, but new voters are entirely welcome — new voters will be added to the spreadsheet as their ballots are submitted. Also initially, there is a column for each of the holdover candidates; additional player columns from the new born-in-1970 group will be added to the spreadsheet as votes are cast for them.
Choose your three players from the lists below of eligible players. The eighteen current holdovers are listed in order of the number of future rounds (including this one) through which they are assured eligibility, and alphabetically when the future eligibility number is the same. The 1970 birth-year guys (including 26 pitchers!) are listed below in order of the number of seasons each played in the majors, and alphabetically among players with the same number of seasons played.
Holdovers:
Harmon Killebrew (eligibility guaranteed for 9 rounds)
Roberto Alomar (eligibility guaranteed for 5 rounds)
Eddie Murray (eligibility guaranteed for 3 rounds)
Luke Appling (eligibility guaranteed for 3 rounds)
Kevin Brown (eligibility guaranteed for 2 rounds)
Roy Campanella (eligibility guaranteed for 2 rounds)
Dennis Eckersley (eligibility guaranteed for 2 rounds)
Rick Reuschel (eligibility guaranteed for 2 rounds)
Luis Tiant (eligibility guaranteed for 2 rounds)
Richie Ashburn (eligibility guaranteed for this round only)
Dizzy Dean (eligibility guaranteed for this round only)
Wes Ferrell (eligibility guaranteed for this round only)
David Cone (eligibility guaranteed for this round only)
Don Drysdale (eligibility guaranteed for this round only)
Dwight Evans (eligibility guaranteed for this round only)
Minnie Minoso (eligibility guaranteed for this round only)
Graig Nettles (eligibility guaranteed for this round only)
Dave Winfield (eligibility guaranteed for this round only)
Everyday Players (born in 1970, ten or more seasons played in the major leagues or at least 20 WAR):
Jim Thome
Royce Clayton
Jim Edmonds
Craig Counsell
Mark Grudzielanek
Javy Lopez
John Mabry
Kelly Stinnett
Denny Hocking
Mike Matheny
Alberto Castillo
Ricky Gutierrez
Quinton McCracken
Doug Mirabelli
Bobby Higginson
Luis Lopez
Brook Fordyce
Pitchers (born in 1970, ten or more seasons played in the major leagues or at least 20 WAR):
Darren Oliver
Eddie Guardado
Alan Embree
Steve Trachsel
Aaron Sele
Ron Villone
Wilson Alvarez
Paul Byrd
Jon Lieber
Dan Miceli
Kirk Rueter
Rick Helling
Tanyon Sturtze
Mark Wohlers
Steve Avery
Matt Herges
Pat Mahomes
Tom Martin
Jim Mecir
Ricardo Rincon
Paul Shuey
Mike DeJean
Joey Eischen
Chad Fox
Joey Hamilton
Bobby Jones
Nettles, Killebrew, and Thome.
This round’s tidbits.
1. Jim Thome and Alex Rodriguez were the principals on 8-21-2011 in the only AL game with two players who had then hit 600 career home runs. Thome’s 6 seasons with 40 HR, 100 RBI and 100 walks trails only Babe Ruth and Barry Bonds. Thome is the only player to post those totals for 3 different teams. Who are the four others to do so for two teams?
2. Darren Oliver’s five World Series games aged 40 or older are the most by a pitcher. Which three pitchers share the record for the most such appearances in a single World Series?
3. Eddie Guardado ranks 3rd all-time in Games Finished for the Senators/Twins. Who tops that list?
4. Jim Edmonds’ five seasons of 5 WAR (2000-04) are the most by a Cardinal center-fielder and match the number of other players with even one such season. Which one of those other five Cardinals was a teammate of Edmonds?
5. Royce Clayton’s -227.8 Rbat is the lowest career total among shortstops with 100 career home runs. Which such pre-expansion shortstop (most of career before 1961) has the lowest career Rbat?
6. Craig Counsell’s .130 career BA in the World Series is among the lowest marks for non-pitchers with 50 World Series PA. Which such player with a lower World Series BA played on more WS winners than Counsell’s two?
7. Steve Trachsel had 125 IP and ERA+ under 100 in four of his first seven seasons, the most among 199 pitchers with two 125 IP/130 ERA+ campaigns among those same first 7 seasons. Who is the only HOFer in that group with 3 seasons of 125 IP and sub-100 ERA+ over the first 7 years of his career?
8. Alan Embree posted 15 consecutive seasons (1995-2009) with 20 appearances, zero starts and both a win and a loss. Who is the only pitcher with a longer streak of such seasons?
9. Ron Villone in 2009 followed Mike Morgan as the second player to appear for twelve different franchises, then the most ever. Who is the only non-pitcher to do the same?
10. Mark Grudzielanek’s 391 career doubles are the most among players with fewer than 8000 PA and OPS+ below 95. During his time with the Dodgers (1998-2002), Grudzielanek patrolled the middle infield with Alex Cora, with each playing 150+ games at both 2nd base and shortstop. Who are the only other pair of Dodger teammates to do the same?
11. Aaron Sele’s 145 ERA+ is a Red Sox record for live ball era starting pitchers in the first two seasons of a career (min. 250 IP), and ranks as the 11th best mark among all such pitchers. Which pitcher tops that list?
12. Joey Hamilton makes the same list as Sele, with his 134 ERA+ a Padre best over the first two seasons of a career. But, Hamilton’s three consecutive seasons with 25 starts and an ERA+ of 95 or worse are also a Padre record. Which two pitchers share the latter distinction with Hamilton?
13. Javy Lopez’s 214 HR and 728 strikeouts are both career records for Braves catchers. Who ranks second on both those lists?
14. Paul Byrd’s 5 career post-season starts without a loss is tied with Clay Buchholz for the most in the AL in the playoff era (since 1969). Which active and retired NL pitchers have the most such post-season starts over that same period?
15. Kelly Stinnett had consecutive seasons (1998-99) with 10+ HR in fewer than 300 AB. Who was the first catcher to do this?
16. John Mabry played 125 games at 1B, 3B, LF and RF. Who is the only such player to play in the AL since 1973 and never DH?
17. Jon Lieber’s 2001 season with 20 wins and a .750 W-L% was the first by a Cub since 1935. Who are the two Cub pitchers to post league-leading totals in both categories in such a season?
18. Dan Miceli’s best season as measured by ERA+ was a 145 score in 70+ IP in 2003 when, ironically, he couldn’t hold down a job, being released once and traded twice in a four team odyssey. Micelli is also one of 23 pitchers since 1914 to make his career debut on his birthday. Which one of those birthday boys debuted with a start and a W?
19. Wilson Alvarez’s 143 ERA+ in 1993 is the best all-time in a 200+ IP season with BB/9 over 5. Who is the only pitcher to lead his league in HR allowed in such a campaign?
20. Mike Matheny is the only expansion era player with 150 games caught for both the Giants and Cardinals. Who was the first catcher to do this?
21. Kirk Rueter is the only post-war pitcher to end his career with three consecutive 100+ IP seasons with more walks than strikeouts. Who is the last such pitcher with more career IP than Reuter?
22. Denny Hocking’s 2000 season is the only one with 10 or more games played at each of 7 different positions. Who are the only two pre-DH players with more career games than Hocking and who also failed to play 300 games at any one position?
23. Doug Mirabelli is one of seven players with seven or more seasons catching 40 games for the Red Sox. Mirabelli caught less than 60 games for Boston in all of those seasons, more than the number of such seasons by the other six catchers combined. Who is the only one of those 7 catchers to play on three world championsip teams?
24. Tanyon Sturtze’s 224 IP in 2002 are the most by an AL pitcher in a live ball era season with a W-L% under .200. Who are the only two NL pitchers with a higher IP total in such a season?
25. Quinton McCracken had an identical batting average in consecutive 350 PA seasons (1997-98), each spent with a different team. Which player did that over the past two seasons?
26. Alberto Castillo posted career OBP and SLG both under .300. Who is the only such post-war catcher with more career PA and a lower career OPS+ than Castillo?
27. Rick Helling is the only Rangers’ pitcher with four consecutive seasons (1998-2001) of 30 starts with 12 wins and a winning record. Who was the other pitcher with those marks in those seasons while also posting an ERA+ below 115 each time?
28. Ricky Gutierrez led the majors with 16 and 17 sacrifice hits in 2000 and 2001, recording almost twice as many sac bunts in those two seasons as in the rest of his career. The latter mark is tied for the highest total since 1955 by a Cub shortstop. Who shares that distinction with Gutierrez?
29. Mark Wohlers recorded at least 25 saves in 3 consecutive seasons (1995-97). Who are the other two retired pitchers to do this and who also had no other seasons with even 10 saves?
30. Matt Herges’s 2000 rookie season is the last by a pitcher (in any season) with 11+ relief wins in fewer than 60 relief appearances. Who is the last rookie pitcher to record more than half of his career wins in such a season?
31. Ricardo Rincon had career BB/9 over 4.0 in the regular season, and under 2.0 in the post-season. Who are the other three pitchers with 9 post-season relief IP to post those same career marks?
32. Tom Martin posted a career 91 ERA+, tied for the lowest mark among 72 retired pitchers who posted a 175 ERA+ in a 50+ IP rookie season relieving in 80% of appearances. Who shares that distinction with Martin?
33. Jim Mecir is one of 24 pitchers with two seasons (none have more than two) without a start, but with 7+ wins and a .750 W-L%. Who was the first pitcher to do this?
34. Bobby Higginson’s 23.0 career WAR is the 5th lowest total among single franchise outfielders with 5000 career PA. Which such Tiger outfielder has the lowest career WAR?
35. Paul Shuey is one of six pitchers with 200 IP, 100 GF and a 130 ERA+ as an Indian. Which two of those pitchers posted those same totals for a second team?
36. Luis Lopez recorded more RBI than walks in every season of his career, one of twelve players to do so since 1901 in careers of 1500 PA with OPS+ under 70. Which contemporary of Lopez posted the same result in over 3 times as many career PA?
37. Pat Mahomes posted 6 seasons of 50+ IP with WHIP over 1.5 and also higher than his SO/BB ratio. Of 28 pitchers with 5 or more such seasons since 1961, Mahomes has the 3rd fewest career IP and the fewest among the 23 who also started over 20% of their games. Which such pitcher had the most career IP?
38. Steve Avery is the last pitcher to record 3 seasons (1991-93) of 35 starts and 200 IP through age 23. Avery’s 91 ERA+ aged 24+ is the lowest mark among 20 live ball era pitchers with 750 IP and 110 ERA+ through age 23. Which such retired pitcher had the best ERA+ after age 23?
39. Chad Fox is one of only two live ball era pitchers to pitch fewer than 9 innings in 5 or more seasons. His 1.89 ERA in 2001 was barely half of his 3.66 FIP, one of only 92 live ball era seasons (incl. 40 since 2001) of 60+ IP with ERA less than 55% of FIP. Which pitcher had the most IP as a starter in such a season?
40. Mike DeJean is one of four pitchers to have seasons without a start and with both a 5-0 or better record and also a 0-5 or worse record. Which one of those four posted those seasons for the same team?
41. Brook Fordyce is one of 78 players since 1901 to have three or more seasons catching 90 games with 90 hits and no more than 50 strikeouts. Of that group, Fordyce is the only one to record fewer than 2000 career PA. Who are the three such active catchers?
42. Joey Eischen’s 5 seasons (2002-06) of 20+ appearances and fewer IP are the most by an Expo/Nat. Eischen is also one of eight retired pitchers with career marks of 300 games pitched and fewer than 300 IP. Who was the first pitcher to average less than one IP per appearance in a career of 300+ games?
43. Bobby Jones closed out his career with a 74 ERA+ over two seasons with San Diego, the worst mark among all retired pitchers with 50 starts and 300 IP as a Padre. Which active pitcher may break that record?
Doug, this is the most impressive thing I’ve ever seen. You must’ve been working on this for a LONG time to have it up so soon after this post opened up. Kudos to you, sir, for always having these fun trivia things, but especially this round!
Now, to take some low-hanging fruit (as is my wont):
Eddie Guardado: The Twins’/Senators’ leader in GF is Rick Aguilera (434). Joe Nathan is second (394), and Guardado is third (258).
Jim Edmonds: I’m really confused by this question. Ray Lankford had 3 seasons of 5+ WAR (consecutively, even – 1996-1998), and he’s the answer to this question, as they were teammates in 2000-2001.
Ron Villone: Matt Stairs is the obvious (and gloriously rotund) player to have played for 12 franchises. Octavio Dotel played for 13, and is the new leader.
Javy Lopez: I’m going to venture a guess here and say that Brian McCann (176 HR, 630 SO) is the answer to the question.
Jon Lieber: Al Spalding (1876) and Lon Warneke (1932).
Bobby Higginson: I think the answer you’re looking for is Willie Horton. Although, if you’re talking about “single franchise OF with 5000 PA, Higginson is lowest for the Tigers. So I’m not sure exactly what you mean, but I think the answer is Horton.
All correct except for the Higginson question. Horton played for several clubs at the end of his career, especially Seattle where he had a “last hurrah” type season at age 36 with career best RBI (106) and second best HR (29) while playing every game, the *only* 25/100 season by a player that old playing every game.
The answer to the question was a teammate of Horton’s.
Is it Mickey Stanley?
Stanley is the one, with 17.3 WAR in 5477 PA.
Quiz: 40/100/100. McGwire, Giambi, Sheffield, Foxx. It’s an oddly counterintuitive question, or better, a counterintuitive answer. I expected free agents. But three of the four (McGwire, Sheffield, Foxx) were traded by the first team that they did it for to the second team they did it for. Thome was traded from the second team to the third.
That’s it.
Good observation about the UFAs. Looking through the list of 40/100/100 seasons, besides Thome, only these players had that season (or seasons) for a team they joined initially as a UFA.
– Carlos Pena
– David Ortiz
– Barry Bonds
– Rafael Palmeiro
I – I don’t even know how to take this information in to try and answer it… I can’t imagine what it must have taken to put it together. I usually avoid making pointless posts, but this one is just to bow down in awe.
Thanks bells,
Just something I enjoy. So many players I know nothing or very little about. So, a way to learn a little bit about them.
Now that I have recovered from Doug’s impressive post, here is what I believe is the answer to the Luis Lopez question: Neifi Perez
Perez is the one.
Mike Matheny question: Roger Bresnahan
It is Roger, who actually caught 200+ games for the Giants and Cards, and also for the Cubs.
Bresnahan actually debuted on the mound for the NL Senators in 1897; went 4-0 in 41 IP (5 starts) with 3 CG and a shutout. Not bad for an 18 year-old.
Denny Hocking question: Dick Williams is one of the two.
Indeed he is.
Clue for the other one is he won a batting championship.
Looks like it was Debs Garms.
Correct.
Garms (1940), Nap Lajoie (1902), Bubbles Hargrave (1926), Ernie Lombardi (1942) and Bill Madlock (1981) are (I think) the only batting champions since 1901 with fewer than 400 PA.
Pat Mahomes: I would guess Jimmy Haynes. I remember looking at some “bad” numbers a while back and Haynes always seemed to come out on … top.
Brook Fordyce: Yadier Molina is one answer.
Mark Wohlers: New HOFer John Smoltz had one save too many in 2001.
Pat Mahomes: Not quite sure of it but I’ll say Mike Torrez.
Torrez is correct.
Mark Grudzielanek question: Ivy Olson and Jimmy Johnston back in the 1920s.
Those are the two.
Aaron Sele question: Dwight Gooden.
It is Gooden, who is head and shoulders above everyone else over the first two seasons of a career.
Generated 1/11/2015.
Amazing how many ‘flameouts’ there are in that list. I know it’s been an obvious development in baseball discussion in recent years (even decades)of protecting early pitchers but that chart is somewhat sobering. Even guys like Drysdale who were successful to the point of HoF careers fell off a cliff relatively early… very few (Moose, Drysdale, Oswalt) had enough years of goodness to make even close to a HoF case. Washington better have their fingers crossed for Roark…
Alan Embree question: Sparkly Lyle had 16 consecutive seasons with at least one win, one loss, twenty games pitched, and no starts.
Tanyon Sturtze question: Two Mets pitchers. Roger Craig, 1963, went 5-22 (.185 W-L%) while pitching 236 innings. Jerry Koosman, was 3-15 (.167 W-L%) in 1978 over 235 1/3 innings.
Absolutely correct.
Lyle’s 16 seasons were his entire career. Embree’s 15 years were his whole career save for a 4-game September call-up three years earlier, as a starter.
Kelly Stinnett question: Smoky Burgess
It is Smoky in 1956-57, when he slugged .518!
I checked how many HR he hit as a pinch-hitter and he still qualifies based on the HR he hit as a catcher.
Kirk Rueter question: Eldon Auker
Auker is the one. He finished his career with 45 more IP than Reuter. Their SO/BB for their last 3 seasons: Auker 0.75, Reuter 0.76.
Auker was a great storyteller on Ken Burns’ “Baseball” documentary.
Paul Shuey question: Rafael Betancourt (with the Rockies) and Bob Wickman (with the Brewers).
Those are the two.
Joey Eischen question: Yorkis Perez.
There’s someone earlier than Perez (like Eischen, he played for the Expos).
Now I see how I missed Steve Frey. I found the eight retired pitchers you mentioned with over 300 games and less than 300 IP. Then I chose the one who retired first: Yorkis Perez. That would have been a fine answer…just to a different question than the one you asked. ;o)
By screening for pitchers with fewer than 300 career innings, I inadvertently eliminated Steve Frey, who – with his 304 career IP in 314 games – was the first pitcher to retire averaging less than one IP per appearance in a career of 300+ games.
I enjoy your quizzes, Doug. Thanks for putting them together.
Glad to hear you enjoy them, Scary.
Thanks for playing along.
Rick Helling question: Andy Pettitte
Richard: Who was the last Yankee before Pettitte to end his career with a complete game?
I’ll take a guess. Mike Mussina. If I’m wrong I’ll have to look it up. I have a question for you. For the Mabry question do you mean that the player played 125 games at each of those 4 positions and all in the AL?
Not Mussina. You’ll be amazed how far back you have to go.
Re: Mabry. Just 125 games at those positions, total. Then find the player indicated among that group.
Is the answer to the Mabry question Tomas Perez?
No, not Perez.
It’s 125 games at each of 1B, 3B, LF and RF.
If I have done my search correctly it was Ivy Andrews on Sept. 28, 1938. I was 20 days old at the time but I have no recollection of it. 🙂
Andrews’ name was an answer your prior quiz.
I found the same result.
Last Yankee before Pettitte to end career with CG and a win – a 24 year-old named Charlie Devens in 1934, going 11 innings!
Never would have guessed it was so rare.
Alberto Castillo question: Mike Ryan
Ryan is the one. He trails only Bill Bergen in career PA with BA under .200.
Matt Herges question: Frank Funk. He achieved his 11 win season in his second year but according to BR he exceeded his rookie season in that same year.
status, not season.
Funk is our man.
Hard to figure how he never made it back to the majors after 1963, his age 27 season. Each of his four ML seasons was a good one. His SO/9 in his last campaign was down but in limited innings – maybe that was it.
Anyway, he stuck around in the minors for four more years with his SO/9 returning to his norm and his BB/9 markedly improved. But his H/9 shot up quite a bit with a resulting increase in his ERA. Probably what kept him down on the farm.
Remaining quiz answers. Refer to post 2 above for questions.
2. Jim Kaat, John Franco, Larry Andersen
5. Granny Hamner
6. Dal Maxvill
7. Tom Glavine
12. Steve Arlin, Brian Lawrence
14. Ryan Vogelsong, Joe Blanton
16. Denny Walling
18. Edwin Jackson
19. Bobo Newsom
23. Bill Carrigan
25. Robinson Cano
28. Ivan deJesus
29. Heathcliff Slocumb, Danys Baez
31. Larry Sherry, Rob Dibble, Scott Eyre
32. Calvin Schiraldi
33. Hoyt Wilhelm
38. Hal Newhouser
39. Steve Rogers
40. Rob Murphy
41. Yadier Molina, A.J. Pierzynski, Carlos Ruiz
42. Steve Frey
43. Edinson Volquez
Jim Thome
David Cone
Rick Reuschel
The ten position players on the holdover list form a perfect lineup, with one extra outfielder:
C – Campanella
1B – Murray
2B – Alomar
SS – Appling
3B – Nettles
LF – Minoso
CF – Ashburn
RF – Evans or Winfield
DH – Killebrew
That’s elegant spotting, David. You’ve also got Ferrell and Drysdale to pinch-hit if necessary, plus five other starting pitchers and a closer.
That’s quite a powerful all-COG-borderline team.
Killebrew, Campanella, Drysdale
Harmon Killebrew, Dennis Eckersley, Jim Thome
Kevin Brown, Luis Tiant, Harmon Killebrew
Thome, Alomar, Murray
Alomar, Evans, Dean
Cone
Murray
Thome
Killebrew, Eck, Ferrell.
Why is everyone’s name always in bold EXCEPT Eck?
Not sure how Eck ended up without the bolding, but it’s fixed now. Thanks for pointing it out. It was not intended as an editorial comment.
My ballot, when I get to it will NOT include an honorary vote for Craig Counsell, in spite of the fact that, as a fellow suburban Milwaukeean (he’s from Whitefish Bay; I lived in neighboring Glendale from age 5-18), I share a great affinity for Counsell. Plus, he’s part of two of my favorite all-time personal baseball memories:
One time, I saw Craig Counsell pushing his kid around in a stroller about noon on a gameday. I waved and said “hi.” He said “hi” back. This was in July or August of 2007.
But my favorite Counsell memory was this. I was at a Brewers game on 6/17/2008. In front of me was a young family – parents in their 30s, and two boys, one about 7 and one about 3. The 7-year-old was already turning into a baseball encyclopedia. It was a very fun thing to listen to during a baseball game. Anyway, in the 2nd inning, Prince Fielder hit a HR. Well, if you’ve ever been to Miller Park, you know that, like many teams, the Brewers set off fireworks after a HR. They did so. The 3-year-old hated this. He got scared, and then took to covering his ears during every Brewers PA. This greatly annoyed his older brother, who thought that his younger brother should un-stopper his ears and enjoy the game.
The next inning, Counsell came up to bat. The older brother told the younger brother to take his fingers out of his ears. “He doesn’t have a home run all season! There’s no chance.” Older Brother started physically trying to remove Younger Brother’s fingers from his ears, but Younger Brother steadfastly refused.
Well, I’m guessing you know the rest of the story. During that AB, Counsell hit a liner to right that snuck over the wall and into the bullpen – for his one and only HR of 2008. Younger Brother shot Older Brother a death glare as the fireworks raged in centerfield. I laughed a hearty laugh. Brewers went on to win 7-0. All was well.
Wonderful story, thanks!
Most b-ref WAR in NL History by an Age 34 Second Baseman:
1. Eddie Stanky (1950) 8.1
2. Jeff Kent (2002) 7.0
3. Red Schoendienst (1954) 5.7
4. Craig Counsell (2005) 5.5
5. Jim Gilliam (1963) 5.2
B-Ref WAR, 2B Age 27 – 33
1 Rogers Hornsby 62.7 1923 1929
2 Joe Morgan 59.1 1971 1977
3 Nap Lajoie 50.3 1902 1908
4 Eddie Collins 46.5 1914 1920
5 Chase Utley 44.9 2006 2012
6 Charlie Gehringer 43.8 1930 1936
7 Jackie Robinson 43.7 1947 1952
8 Craig Biggio 41.5 1993 1999
9 Ben Zobrist 38.3 2008 2014
It’s probably not a stretch to say that Jackie Robinson would move up to 3rd or 4th on this list if he had played in MLB in 1946 at age 27.
On another note, I may have stated a few times on this website that I don’t necessarily trust dWAR and the analysis involved in the evaluation of actual fielding skills (not necessarily the positional adjustments). Here with please find my rationale for such criticism. If Ben Zobrist is the 9th greatest 2B in the history of the world at any point in his career, then “I’M A LUG NUT”. Good-looking wife aside, nice ball player, but the 9th best 2b?
Baseball-Reference uses DRS for the last ten years or so and Total Zone for seasons before that. DRS seems to be more prone to giving extreme values than TZ. Take historical comparisons with a grain of salt.
Over his career, 1995-2011, the ratio of Counsell’s SLG to his OBP was just under 1.01. Over that period of years, the only player with more PAs and at least that low a SLG/OBP ratio was Luis Castillo.
Speaking of Counsell, the new players on the ballot provided lots of agony to Cleveland fans.
1) Counsell – His sac fly for the Marlins in the bottom of the 9th tied up game 7 of the ’97 World Series. He later scored the series winning run in the bottom of the 11th.
2) Ricardo Rincon – The Indians acquired him straight up for Brain Giles. Because, you know, any time you can give up a young, power-hitting outfielder in exchange for a middle reliever, you gotta do it. 🙁
3) Jim Thome – Former fan favorite who during his free agency season stated “They will have to rip this jersey off of me” then signed a FA contract with the Phillies. Not quite as devastating as when LeBron left Cleveland but many fans felt betrayed by Thome’s decision.
Also Steve Avery (who was only 7-13 with a 91 ERA+ on the season) holding the Tribe to an Albert Belle solo shot to win game 4 of the ’95 WS and give the visiting Braves a 3-1 stranglehold.
Great story, Dr. I spent a brief few months not long ago working and living in suburban Milwaukee, in the somewhat less tony part of town over west in Menomonee Falls. Don’t get me started about the company I was working for, but I liked the city, and was a big fan of Karl’s country market (smoked german sausages). I had them ship me 5 lbs of landjaeger one time until I found somewhere to get good stuff here.
I always liked Counsell as a ballplayer. Somehow he turned that one tool and being one-step ahead of a utility infield bench player into a 16 year career, a couple of really fine seasons and a few big moments.
Thanks for the good read.
Appling, Ashburn, Minoso
Thome, Winfield, Appling
Killebrew
Thome
Winfield
Murray, Reuschel, Winfield
Jim Thome
Luke Appling
Rick Reuschel
And how did Tanyon Sturtze and Joey Hamilton get to be 44 years old? I’m still waiting for them to be arbitration eligible.
Brown, Tiant, Thome
Killer
Alomar
Appling
Thome, Edmonds, Winfield.
This is a fascinating ballot, for a few reasons. First, after something like 40-odd elections in the past year going back and back in time, it’s somewhat jarring to get living, 44-year-old players, when I’ve been preparing for 1906ers, some of whom died before these guys were born. Second, it’s very interesting in terms of competitive balance – I’ve been curious since I took a sneak peak at the 1970 class last year how Thome and Edmonds would hold up on a CoG ballot. Third, since there’s been a lot on Killebrew and his almost-elections lately, the direct comp of Thome has come up on a number of occasions. Oh, and fourth, there are a million guys on the ballot so keeping the many people I think worthy on the ballot (which I want to do because I want new redemption rounds to consider new candidates, not just put them on to have them come back off) is going to take a lot of hole-plugging. I’m voting early this round to give myself a little less responsibility on that front.
Anyway…
Here’s the vote according to my methodology – I compare players on 4 slightly different metrics, then aggregate the rankings of the players on the ballot. So if a player ranks first on all 4 metrics, they get a 4, if they rank 10th on all 4, they get a 40, etc. The four metrics are:
WAR – measurement of value above replacement players; has seemed to be the most widely discussed ‘advanced’ omnibus measurement of player value.
WAA+ – measurement of value above average players; my thought is that it measures how ‘really good’ a player was (excluding negative seasons also suits this purpose), and so a player who hung on slightly above replacement for many years might score highly in WAR but less highly in WAA+.
JAWS – measurement of combined peak and career value; my thought is that this is a different way of capturing some ‘middle ground’ between the above 2 metrics.
WAR*WAR/162G (or /250IP for pitchers) – credit to John Autin for coming up with this idea as a way to measure a player’s productivity per amount of time that they actually played, rather than over a season or career; my thought is that this is a way of measuring value for players who may not have had shorter careers or did not always play full seasons, etc.
Here are the rankings for everyone on the ballot plus any newcomers over 50 WAR:
Appling 4
Brown, Reuschel AND Thome 14 (wow, that’s tight)
Tiant 31
Alomar 34
Ferrell 36
Nettles 38
Cone 39
Drysdale 40
Murray 41
Edmonds 49
Evans and Ashburn 50
Eckersley 51
Winfield 60
Killebrew 64
Minoso 69
Dean 74
Campy 80
I generally consider everyone down to Eck worth keeping on the ballot for consideration, and everyone above around the Nettles-Murray group to be people I want IN the CoG. So, who to vote for? Appling is a head (not necessarily head-and-shoulders) above the rest in my esteem, but who do I want to keep on the most? I’ll go with the most promising recent redemption returnees.
Appling
Nettles
Cone
Plate Appearances per Win Above Average
This is for the season ending closest to 7000 PA.
(for a clearer comparison of the 8000 PA guys vs the 10000+ PA players:
PaWaa7000:
192.1 … Jim Edmonds
223.6 … Bill Dickey (last week’s winner)
224.5 … Graig Nettles
224.9 … Jim Thome
236.2 … Eddie Murray
237.4 … Minnie Minoso
254.4 … Harmon Killebrew
259.0 … Richie Ashburn
264.7 … Dwight Evans
287.0 … Roberto Alomar
288.6 … Dave Winfield
295.6 … Luke Appling (Appling gets better with age)
512.7 … Javy Lopez (5793)
2740.0 … Mark Grudzielanek
EDMONDS leads that stat? Now that is surprising to me.
Yep. 8000, too:
PaWaa 8000:
228.6 … Jim Edmonds (7980)
235.6 … Jim Thome
245.4 … Graig Nettles
245.5 … Luke Appling
250.5 … Eddie Murray
257.1 … Roberto Alomar
263.8 … Dwight Evans
270.8 … Harmon Killebrew
296.9 … Richie Ashburn
314.6 … Dave Winfield
Notable: Appling just gets better…
Campanella, Dean, Thome.
I’m not voting anytime soon. Too many candidates. Guys I have above the Murray/Reuschel line of induction
-Ferrell (5.51)
-Drysdale (5.01)
-Appling (4.92, more with a service correction)
-Nettles (4.86)
-Thome (4.83)
-Campanella (3.25, catcher and negro league adjustments)
My line Murray (4.64) and Reuschel (4.86)
The rest I have below with Kevin Brown (5.19) getting a negative steroids adjustment and Edmonds barely out (4.58)
I’m somewhat worried about keeping Campanella, Nettles, and Ferrell on the ballot and I think Ferrell simply peaked much higher (11.0 WAR in 1935) than anybody else, I think I have him slightly ahead of even Appling (who clearly should get in). I guess I’d vote for those 3 if I have to but we’ll see maybe they won’t need it.
Killebrew (4.31) is not good enough for induction IMHO. His best seasons weren’t that good. A bat only player, his 58 RBAT does not impress me as a career peak. Winfield managed 50 in ’79 while playing a deserved gold glove right field defense and stealing 15 bases and I’m not convinced Winfield makes the cut either, even hand waving away some of RFIELD’s hatred for him.
mosc, can we get a refresher as to the method that creates these numbers?
Yes, so the basic principle is an average of averages which weights peak against career as Dr Doom and I have been preaching. I picked a 25 year “memory”, roughly lining up with about as long as anybody’s positive WAR career. The best year is N=1. Using Killebrew as an example that’s 1967 with 6.4 WAR. His best two consecutive years are 1966+1967 which is an average of 6.15 WAR. 3 years is 65-67 for 5.53 WAR. I continue this through 25 years and then average those averages:
Best N Start Total Avg
1 1967 6.4 6.4
2 1966 12.3 6.15
3 1965 16.6 5.533333333
4 1964 21.3 5.325
5 1966 25.9 5.18
6 1965 30.2 5.033333333
7 1964 34.9 4.985714286
8 1963 39.1 4.8875
9 1961 42.7 4.744444444
10 1961 47.6 4.76
11 1960 50.7 4.609090909
12 1959 54.9 4.575
13 1959 57.7 4.438461538
14 1959 60.8 4.342857143
15 1959 61.3 4.086666667
16 1958 61.2 3.825
17 1957 61.4 3.611764706
18 1957 61.2 3.4
19 1957 61.1 3.215789474
20 1957 61.1 3.055
21 1957 61.1 2.90952381
22 1957 61.1 2.777272727
23 1957 61.1 2.656521739
24 1957 61.1 2.545833333
25 1957 61.1 2.444
The average of those averages is 4.22. This is a heavily peak weighted model of career excellence. Based on Dr Doom’s input I also did the same process sorting by strongest season to weakest season to help out players without continuous peaks. In Killebrew’s case this gievs him a 4.41 score. I average the two, splitting the difference between consecutive and non-consecutive approaches which gives 4.31.
I posed some VBA code to calculate the following from a given two column input of season (sequential) and WAR. I’ll attach that to this post if somebody wants to try it. Put the first year (1954 for Killebrew) in A2 and the first WAR value (0 for Killebrew) in B2 and follow down A and B from there (easy to paste from BBREF).
Sub nyearparser()
Dim sh As Worksheet
Set sh = ActiveSheet
‘inputs
sh.Cells(1, 1) = “Year”
sh.Cells(1, 2) = “WAR”
startrow = 2
startyear = sh.Cells(startrow, 1)
npeak = 25 ‘the number of years to evalute. Less favors peak, more favors career totals
Dim nbest(1 To 25) As String ‘second number must be npeak
Dim nyear(1 To 25) As String ‘second number must be npeak
Dim nnormal(1 To 25) As String ‘second number must be npeak
‘outputs
sh.Cells(1, 5) = “Total”
sh.Cells(1, 6) = “Avg”
sh.Cells(1, 4) = “Start”
sh.Cells(1, 3) = “Best N”
sh.Cells(1, 7) = “Normalized”
‘starting comparison values
r = startrow
x = 1
nnormal(x) = sh.Cells(startrow, 2)
While x < (npeak + 1)
nbest(x) = Application.Sum(Range(sh.Cells(r, 2), sh.Cells(r + x – 1, 2)))
sh.Cells(startrow + x – 1, 4) = startyear
sh.Cells(startrow + x – 1, 3) = x
x = x + 1
If x 1
a = nnormal(y)
b = nnormal(y – 1)
If (a – b) > 0 Then
nnormal(y – 1) = a
nnormal(y) = b
Else
y = 0
End If
y = y – 1
Wend
‘check if additional season is negative and don’t penalize
If nbest(x) 0
‘populate current year for comparison
x = 1
While x < (npeak + 1)
nyear(x) = Application.Sum(Range(sh.Cells(r, 2), sh.Cells(r + x – 1, 2)))
x = x + 1
Wend
'compare
x = 1
While x 0 Then
nbest(x) = a
sh.Cells(startrow + x – 1, 4) = sh.Cells(r, 1)
End If
x = x + 1
Wend
r = r + 1
Wend
‘output
x = 1
r = startrow
While x 0
a = nnormal(y)
If a > 0 Then
tn = tn + a
End If
y = y – 1
Wend
sh.Cells(r, 7) = tn / x
r = r + 1
x = x + 1
Wend
‘score
sh.Cells(startrow + npeak, 6) = Application.Average(Range(sh.Cells(startrow, 6), sh.Cells(startrow + npeak – 1, 6)))
sh.Cells(startrow + npeak, 7) = Application.Average(Range(sh.Cells(startrow, 7), sh.Cells(startrow + npeak – 1, 7)))
sh.Cells(startrow + npeak + 1, 6) = “MIX:”
sh.Cells(startrow + npeak + 1, 7) = (sh.Cells(startrow + npeak, 6) + sh.Cells(startrow + npeak, 7)) / 2
End Sub
mosc: It’s also possible to derive that data purely by spreadsheet analysis. I did it and my numbers for Killibrew matched yours.
For an example of just how peak heavy this method is, Here’s mike trout:
Best N Start Total Avg Normalized
1 2012 10.8 10.8 10.8
2 2012 19.7 9.85 9.85
3 2012 27.6 9.2 9.2
4 2011 28.3 7.075 7.075
5 2011 28.3 5.66 5.66
6 2011 28.3 4.716666667 4.716666667
7 2011 28.3 4.042857143 4.042857143
8 2011 28.3 3.5375 3.5375
9 2011 28.3 3.144444444 3.144444444
10 2011 28.3 2.83 2.83
11 2011 28.3 2.572727273 2.572727273
12 2011 28.3 2.358333333 2.358333333
13 2011 28.3 2.176923077 2.176923077
14 2011 28.3 2.021428571 2.021428571
15 2011 28.3 1.886666667 1.886666667
16 2011 28.3 1.76875 1.76875
17 2011 28.3 1.664705882 1.664705882
18 2011 28.3 1.572222222 1.572222222
19 2011 28.3 1.489473684 1.489473684
20 2011 28.3 1.415 1.415
21 2011 28.3 1.347619048 1.347619048
22 2011 28.3 1.286363636 1.286363636
23 2011 28.3 1.230434783 1.230434783
24 2011 28.3 1.179166667 1.179166667
25 2011 28.3 1.132 1.132
3.438331324 3.438331324
MIX: 3.438331324
Continuing my campaigning for Nettles.
He probably has more WAR than whoever you’re planning on voting for. Check it out. 68 WAR total over his career. More than all but a few players on this list.
During the 70’s, he was fourth in WAR for the decade (more than his Yankee teammate Reggie Jackson, btw), second in dWAR (ahead of B. Robinson, BTW–Belanger was first), and sixth in HR.
390 career HRs–only a few 3B ahead of him.
For those of you critical of his batting average: In the 1970’s it was tough to hit for power and average. In the 70’s, Nettles and Mike Schmidt had .254 and .255 BA’s. Bet most of you are surprised it’s only .001 difference, eh?
More: He was the ONLY player in the 70’s to have both >30 oWAR and >20 dWar.
In the history of the game, only THREE 3B players have over 50 oWAR and 20 dWAR. Nettles is one of them.
2nd all time in 3B assists and double plays. 6th in total zone runs.
If you are old enough to remember his defensive play in the WS in the 70’s, you’ll remember shaking your head and exclaiming “wow” in disbelief at the plays he made.
Enough for now.
Just vote for Nettles. 🙂
I need to revise my ballot:
Luke Appling
Jim Thome
Graig Nettles
Yay! A great revision. 🙂
Revision: Nettles, Campanella, Thome. Sorry Dizzy.
(Innings Pitched per Win Above Average)
IpWaa:
73.5 … (1969) Dizzy Dean
80.3 … (3256) Kevin Brown
81.4 … (2899) David Cone
93.1 … (3548) Rick Reuschel
101.0 … (3486) Luis Tiant
107.4 … (3286) Dennis Eckersley
110.1 … (2621) Wes Ferrell
120.0 … (3432) Don Drysdale
______
IpWaa 1500:
70.4 … Dizzy Dean
72.8 … Rick Reuschel
76.6 … Wes Ferrell
88.8 … Dennis Eckersley
89.6 … Don Drysdale
90.4 … Luis Tiant
98.1 … David Cone
168.7 … Kevin Brown
IpWaa 2000:
67.1 … David Cone
71.9 … Rick Reuschel
73.2 … Wes Ferrell
73.9 … Dizzy Dean (1969)
76.8 … Luis Tiant
92.9 … Don Drysdale
96.5 … Kevin Brown
108.6 … Dennis Eckersley
IpWaa 2500:
68.5 … David Cone
74.8 … Rick Reuschel
79.2 … Kevin Brown
84.4 … Luis Tiant
86.8 … Wes Ferrell (also a hitter)
104.7 … Don Drysdale (also a hitter)
108.1 … Dennis Eckersley
IpWaa 3000
76.1 … Kevin Brown
81.4 … David Cone (2899)
84.4 … Rick Reuschel
85.2 … Luis Tiant
96.1 … Dennis Eckersley
115.9 … Don Drysdale
IpWaa 3500:
92.6 … Rick Reuschel
101.0 … Luis Tiant (3486)
120.0 … Don Drysdale (3432)
For the 1970 election, I’m voting for:
-Dave Winfield
-Eddie Murray
-Jim Thome
Other top candidates I considered highly (and/or will consider in future rounds):
-Alomar
-Appling
-Eckersley
-Killebrew
-Brown
-Reuschel
-Tiant
-Cone
-Evans
-Nettles
-Ashburn
-Drysdale
-Edmonds
Thome, Edmonds, Appling
Three infielders for me — nettles, appling, robbie alomar
Thome, Killebrew, and Dean.
And a big shout-out to Eddie Guardado, who I really wish I could justify voting for, but cannot. 🙂
Thome, Killer, Eck
Time to vote!
I don’t know how to separate a few of the pitchers (Tiant, Reuschel, Cone, Drysdale, Ferrell). The closer I look, the more similar THEY look. Given that, I’ll give my third slot to the guy I just helped redeem. Therefore, here’s my ballot:
Luke Appling
Kevin Brown
Don Drysdale
A vote update, through me @57 (the 25th vote):
15 (60%) – Jim Thome
9 (36%) – Harmon Killebrew
8 (32%) – Luke Appling
5 (20%) – Dave Winfield
4 (16%) – Roberto Alomar, Eddie Murray, Graig Nettles
3 (12%) – Kevin Brown, David Cone, Dizzy Dean, Dennis Eckersley
2 (8%) – Roy Campanella, Don Drysdale, Jim Edmonds, Rick Reuschel, Luis Tiant
1 (4%) – Richie Ashburn, Dwight Evans, Wes Ferrell, Minnie Minoso
Edmonds was the last player named on a ballot. He was named on the 17th ballot cast. That means that we had all 20 of the top contenders named within the first 17 votes. Yeah… this might be a tough round.
Luke Appling, Jim Thome, Rick Reuschel
I don’t know how to play this. I think I’ve previously voted for seven players on the holdover ballot, there are at least another five I’d be willing to vote for, and Thome and Edmonds deserve consideration too. Usually I’m one of the first to vote but I might put this off for a few days and play my vote strategically instead.
43 new players on the ballot and none of them ever finished higher than 4th in MVP voting (Thome and Edmonds) or Cy Young voting (Lieber).
Killebrew, Cone, Drysdale
Alomar, Ashburn, Minoso
Roberto Alomar – Richie Ashburn – Dizzy Dean
Ashburn Reuschel Thome
Okay, I’ll go my normal route: Best position player, best pitcher, and personal favorite. So:
Best position player: Graig Nettles
Best pitcher: Oof, this is hard, but I’ll go Luis Tiant (just edging out Reuschel, Cone, Brown and others)
Personal favorite: Thome
So: Nettles, Tiant, Thome
Reuschel, Thome,Cone
I think Thome belongs in the Circle of Greats. I am far less certain about Killebrew.
But I am totally mystified by their both having more votes than Appling.
Most of the guys that I’m certain of or at least leaning towards are on the bubble and I’m not sure that there’s anything that I can do to keep them from falling off when 1903 rolls around. I’m going with 2 of the guys that I’m certain belong that aren’t on the bubble (to keep them there) and a pick ’em for #3.
Appling, Campanera, Ferrell
I may be back at the deadline on this one.
I’m with you Hartvig. I think Appling is clearly the best player on the ballot). At the end of the day, I guess it’s not just chicks that dig the long ball….
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hKAJIvQRSzE
There’s a combination of reasons at work here. I think there’s a good chance that Appling is barely more than a name to many of the younger voters, for instance, whereas Thome is barely retired, and his 600+ HRs gives his candidacy a lot of heft. The first problem may be due to the fact that Appling played for a franchise that was dismal for much of his career and nothing more than respectable in its better seasons. Everyone knows the famous Yankees and Tigers of his generation, but his image in many people’s minds is faint. He’s Ernie Banks without the charisma and the home runs, in a way, although I’d say he was a better ballplayer than Ernie in all respects but power. Killebrew? He has a following that is persistent and that always votes, sort of like Pro-life Conservatives. He and Thome are very similar players, and by my quick count, 5 voters have picked the pair, revealing, I’d say, a penchant on their parts for slow, lumbering guys who put the ball over the fence and are a liability in the field.
I suspect you’re right NSB. At the same time, I would be one of the people who knows a lot more about Thome than Appling.
But I can also easily look at the numbers. So while they have a similar career WAR in a similar number of PAs, Appling lost nearly two full seasons to WWII, likely costing him about 8-10 WAR. He also has more 6+ WAR seasons (4 vs 2), 5+ WAR seasons (9 vs 5) and 4 WAR+ seasons (11 vs 9). In other words, Appling has more “great” seasons than Thome and would likely have a larger lead if not more the lost seasons.
And somehow Dizzy Dean looks like he’s going to survive this ballot. WTF?
his candidacy is all peak, and yet his *peak* is not as good as any of the other pitchers on this ballot. Some of our current choices had lot of fame/legend to them as well (Drysdale/Cone/Tiant). What is keeping this guy on the ballot? Somebody is going to be dropping off this round, and every single other holdover is way ahead of this guy by any reasonable measure.
Can a Dean voter please give some reasoning for why you think he belongs in this company?
I think it will remain a mystery. I’ve noticed that many/most (/all?) off the “Dean voters” are not the type of people who “hang out” here during the week. A lot of them seem to be the type to cast their weekly votes, then move on. Which, by the way, is TOTALLY FINE. I actually think it’s awesome that we have some people on this site who check it more-or-less daily, and some people who just stop by once in a while. But anyway, a lot of the Dean voters have not been part of the extended conversation. Your exact question has come up before; it’s never been answered. I have a feeling that’s because the people who vote for Dean are the people least likely to actually read a post asking for justification for a Dean vote!
Not sure either… my guess is nice peak, popular/famous, and HOF membership. The problem is the COG bar “should” be higher than the HOF bar, if the truly great are being recognized.
There are some not-so-great players in the HOF and others who were great for short time frames. A limited group of 120-125 might be skewed toward those who were great for a longer period of time. We have selected Koufax already, who represents the great pitcher whose career was cut short. Greenberg lost time to WWII. Jackie Robinson lost time to segregation. There are not enough spots for everyone (I’d prefer 10 or 15 more) so some favorites will not make it.
We have plenty of quality candidates on this ballot. A good number of them are non-HOF’s that are not yet in, but maybe should be, and it is a comparison competition. We’re not voting on whether Dizzy Dean deserves to be in the HOF (he does), we’re voting on if he (or one of 19 others) most deserves to be in the Circle of Greats. A key distinction.
I think finding 3 more deserving choices than Dean is pretty easy, but there is no uniform definition of “greatness”. Maybe to some, short intense peaks matter most, and that’s fine too. Thus we have these discussions/debates.
MS:
This is about the extent of any rationalization on behalf of Dean. WAR, age 22-27:
1 Walter Johnson 70.8 1910 1915
2 Robin Roberts 46.1 1949 1954
3 Christy Mathewson 45.6 1903 1908
4 Roger Clemens 44.4 1985 1990
5 Hal Newhouser 42.6 1943 1948
6 Nap Rucker 41.4 1907 1912
7 Bert Blyleven 41.3 1973 1978
8 Tom Seaver 41.1 1967 1972
9 Dave Stieb 38.8 1980 1985
10 Dizzy Dean 38.0 1932 1937
As to Stieb, I wonder if Dave (or Nap Rucker for that matter) had a World Series comparable to Dean’s in 1934 he’d be thought of more the way Dean is. Of course Dizzy was also a very popular personality for decades, but I’m guessing that if the Cardinals had missed the 1934 Series, or if Dizzy had gone 0-2 that Series instead of winning Games 1 and 7, the historical perception of him would have been much different.
I imagine this will upset some people but, unlike Koufax, Dizzy Dean was never mediocre when healthy. Hall of Famer? CoG? Of course not, but a legend is a legend….He had a six year peak-probably not enough to justify all the love.Certainly the WS had a lot to do with all the fuss.
I think we might be forgetting that Dean paired his ’34 WS performance with being the best player in the league during the regular season. There might be some sort of multiplicative effect at work when a player does that. It’s a relatively rare accomplishment when you think about it.
Basically, combine Clayton Kershaw’s regular season last year with Mad Bum’s rubber-arm exploits in the postseason, add a personality that charmed a nation, and that was Dizzy Dean in 1934.
He may not be the best COG candidate but his fame was earned.
______
They didn’t start handing out World Series MVPs until 1955, but here are the winners of that award who also won regular-season MVP.
’63 Koufax
’66 F Robinson
’73 Reggie
’79 Stargell (yeah, I know)
’80 Schmidt
May have missed somebody.
The only other thing I can think of with Dean is the bizarre nature of his stats. From 1934-1936, his record was 70-32. That’s insane, unforgettable, and prone to make one think of him in that way. The five straight years leading the league in Ks doesn’t hurt either. He’s memorable, he’s a “name” player (and has been for 70 years, which means many of us could have heard our GRANDFATHERS talk about the legend of Dizzy Dean). I get how, at a cursory look, one could THINK he belonged… but any serious examination of his statistics indicates his unworthiness to be mentioned with these others on the ballot. He is probably the only of the 20 “big” players on the ballot I cannot possibly justify a vote for.
There’s only 1 player on this ballot who has an 11.0 WAR season (I believe the only one 9.5+). It’s of course Wes Ferrell in 1935. He hit .347/.427/.533/.960 and appeared 34 times WITHOUT pitching. That’s on top of a league leading 322.1 IP that year with a 134 ERA+. His career batting line was .280/.351/.446/.797 in 1345 PA’s with 38 HR. The guy’s peak is exceptional and his career WAR over 60. Cmon guys, take a look.
Ferrell is for sure my #1 “I’ll switch my vote to him if it seems like he needs it” guy.
Alomar, Murray, Winfield
Dizzy Dean, Harmon Killebrew; and Roy Campanella George had it right Winfield was Mr. May and deserves a spot not
Ferrell, Nettles, Drysdale
The 1970 ballot came at an inconvenient time.
Appling
Thome
Brown
Most Wins Above Average, excluding negative seasonal totals:
Appling 44.2
Brown 43.3
Reuschel 40.6
FerrellW 40.1
Thome 39.8
Cone 39.1
Edmonds 38.0
Tiant 37.5
Alomar 37.1
Nettles 35.7
Drysdale 35.3
Evans 34.9
Eckersley 34.3
Ashburn 33.9
Murray 33.7
Killebrew 33.0
Winfield 31.1
Minoso 30.6
Dean 27.9
Campanella 19.2
Note that Drysdale’s and Farrell’s positive WAA are calculated by adding batting WAA pitching WAA and excluding negative seasonal totals. Hitting stats for other pitchers are excluded, as I’m not sure the value of any additional tenths of runs is worth the time to calculate.
There’s not much separating these guys. After the top 2, whose candidacies I strongly support, I could take or leave just about anybody on this ballot. Great players, but Circle of Greats players? Meh.
Appling, Brown, Eckersley
Bryan, I think you’ve nailed it. Obviously, some of the guys below Appling and Brown will have to get in. We simply have to fill like 120 spots; some of these guys ARE in the top 150 players in MLB history. However, separating guy #115 from guy #125… I don’t know how well-equipped anyone is to actually do that in a meaningful way, because, as you say, the differences between guys when we’re looking at the “bottom rung” are paper-thin. It’s very, very hard to see what the differences between them would be, and it’s therefore difficult to decide how on earth we’re supposed to figure out who belongs in or out.
Like you, I’ve got Appling and Brown in. But the third spot on my ballot was tricky, too. I can make an argument for over 10 of the candidates. And in the end, that just makes it really difficult.
Absolutely, Doom. A peak-value voter might take Campanella, Dean, Tiant, even Ferrell. A total-value guy definitely votes Murray and might support Reuschel or Winfield. I have no problem with honoring round numbers at the fringes either- Thome’s 600 HR, Killebrew’s 500, Murray’s 500/3,000. And Edmonds, Alomar, Nettles, and Evans were great defensive players who hit well too.
There’s no doubt that the Ruths and Mayses were among the 120 “greatest”. At this rung, it depends heavily upon how one defines greatness.
Yeah, as I can start to see the end of this exercise come up, I’ve somewhat shifted voting strategies to keep guys on the ballot. I used to not care so much as there were plenty of redemption rounds to come, but those resources are more scarce. So even though I can ‘take or leave’ many guys on the ballot in terms of ultimate CoG inclusion, I’d rather take as many as I can along for a time when that final consideration is coming into play. I’m interested in the discussion, and more candidates will make that more robust; moreover, I haven’t made up my mind quite what the tie-breakers are going to be for me, as there are compelling cases all around. I definitely know that Dean is below my threshold, I can’t give Campy enough credit to make sense for me to vote for him, and guys like Winfield or Killer have arguments that could move them up, though I don’t think its enough… but almost everyone else is in play. So I’m loath to lose someone I want to consider, even though I know it’s a numerical inevitability on this 20-player gargantuan ballot.
Doom and Bryan, don’t forget our voting system is different than the regular Hall. Everyone who wants to vote must vote for three. There’s a winner every round. And losers are given a “lifetime” to redeem themselves. You never really fall off the ballot. There will be players who are not only somewhere between 115/125, but quite possibly 125-140. We aren’t asking people to vote for the top 120. We are hoping that someone who isn’t, say, 140, get elected in a year where there’s no new blood, and he sort of slips through. I think the system Birtelcom designed was going to be as good as you can get. I’ve certainly voted for players I didn’t necessarily think were top 120. And I have prejudices against certain players who’s raw numbers would place them in (juicers). And, I don’t love WAR as a final determinant, so I’m more of a Luddite than many here. My individual preferences get washed out by the votes of the many.
And I still dislike Curt Schilling….
Bryan, I’m confused as to why you’re counting Ferrell’s hitting WAR as WAA. You are pretty familiar with Adam D’s Hall of Stats. Adam doesn’t count it because it’s one of those situations where WAR = WAA, sort of like those non-MLB professional leagues back in the late nineteenth century like the Union Association. It’s one of those situations where replacement level is the league average.
As you know, WAA is normally wins above league average. But pitcher-as-hitter is more like Wins Above An Average-Hitting Pitcher (WAAAHP), a much lower requirement than even replacement level. Really, it is more of an accounting measure than anything. Pitcher hitting is kept separate from position-player hitting because overall it is so massively negative it would distort the league average too much. It is set up to where all pitcher-hitting WAR sums up to exactly zero.
But that doesn’t mean it’s the same thing as being above actual league average. Just imagine if we computed position-player hitting the same way, by comparing each hitter to his position’s average level of hitting. Irrespective of his fielding, a shortstop with a 100 OPS+ would be getting a lot of WAA every year from his hitting. Or go back to the 1970s, when shortstop hitting was worse than it is today. Davey Concepcion, who was a league average hitter in his prime, would look like a Hall of Famer with all the WAA he was getting!
Not counting pitcher-hitting WAR as WAA doesn’t necessarily devastate Ferrell’s case for the COG. His Hall rating is still 110. But including his hitting WAR as WAA would move that rating all the way up to somewhere around 130 (if I did the calculation right), which would make him a definite yes. Including Bob Lemon’s 11 WAR as WAA would move his Hall rating from 75 to somewhere around 95. Drysdale would go from a COG-borderline 114 rating to near 125, which is the same rating as longtime holdover Roberto Alomar.
I can get behind adding pitcher-hitting WAR to pitcher WAR, although I must admit it feels strange treating Wes Ferrell as a 62-WAR pitcher when he only had 49 pitching WAR, especially considering we haven’t done that for any other pitchers before him. But treating it as WAA also might be taking it too far.
This is the issue that makes me hesitant to give Ferrell too much credit, as well. Your example of Concepcion is a wonderful one.
You are probably correct that pitcher hitting WAR should not be counted as WAA. You’ve convinced me… although I don’t actually use WAA, and I still think that Ferrell is about as good a candidate as anyone else.
I liked your original thought on Ferrell when he debuted on the ballot. Quoting:
That is a cavernous jump, indeed — though I understand your position on Ferrell has moved upward since then. So has mine.
WAIT.
WAR and WAA do exactly that for shortstops.
A shortstop who is OPS+ 100 probably has some WAA. Not a ridiculous amount, but basicaly his positional adjustment plus his defense.
And I don’t see any reason you wouldn’t give ferrell credit for that as well.
In terms of what he gave you when he was on the mound, it was performance above average. In some cases he had positive rbat. POSITIVE rBat! from your pitcher!
I agree. First of all the guy had substantial PA’s while NOT pitching. He was regularly used as a pinch hitter and even played a few games in the outfield. His batting line is well above league average at his peak while having the distraction of leading the league in innings over a significant period of time (he pitched over 900 innings in just 3 years!).
Next, he has to hit and he hit better than your average hitter a lot of the time. Overall, he hit league average which basically means when he was pitching it was like having a DH vs not. Ignoring his hitting is like saying you should play current AL vs NL games where the AL DH’s and the NL doesn’t because, you know, a pitcher’s hitting doesn’t matter.
I’ll rephrase. Lets say Ferrell is a 100% league average pitcher in every way. He pitches league average, he fields league average, he hits league average. His WAA? zero. Compare that to a league average shortstop in every way. Well, his positional adjustment is positive so he’s got a positive WAA. Well, Ferrell’s “positional adjustment” is pitcher for god’s sake which has a little more to do with the defensive side than the shortstop. Treating him purely as a positional guy, he should have a greater positional adjustment than even shortstop. Add to that, he was a better than average pitcher and pitched for better than average number of innings and that’s a lot of WAA position player.
So, after posting that and taking another look at the stats, I see that there is a problem with how BRef calculates his WAR/WAA, but it’s not related to the original complaint.
It is related to the fact that he was regularly used as a pinch hitter.
Here’s the problem with Ferrell’s hitting WAR calc. He’s getting rPos credit for being a pitcher on a lot of his pinch hitting PAs. He has 13 games in 1933 where he played LF, so he’s probably getting a correct rPos for those. But most of his non-pitching appearances he bats and never plays the field — bRef appears to be treating those as if he is a pitcher, when he really should be treated the same as any other pinch hitter.
Checking the WAR calculation explanation, it looks like position players get no rPos (negative or positive) for pinch hit PAs where they do not play the field. Their rPos is based on innings played in the field at whatever positions, and does not look at PAs at all.
Pitchers, OTOH, get their rPos based on PAs, and it does not appear that they make any effort to distinguish whether a pitcher actually was pitching before giving rPos credit for pitching.
So Ferrell is getting credit for all of his PAs, even ones where he was pinch hitting, as if he was pitching. Note that his rPos in years where he has few pinch hit appearances but many IP is similar to years where he has fewer IP but many pinch hit appearances.
So his batting WAR and WAA are definitely overstated, and this will be true of any primary pitcher who was good enough to get a significant number of pinch hit opportunities.
This affects Ruffing as much as Ferrell — Look at the seasons where his Pitching games roughly equals his batting games — in those he’s getting 7-11 rPos, but in seasons where he bats in 55-60G, but only pitches the usual 35-40) he’s getting 12-15, even though he’s pitching roughly the same number of games and IP as the others.
The difference is pinch hit PAs, not pitching PAs, and every other pinch hitter is getting 0 rPos, so he should be too. OTOH, pinch hitters are getting Rrep, and pitchers aren’t, but because pitchers as a whole are well below pinch hitter replacement level, they are getting over credited even for WAR.
Drysdale looks like he pinch hit a little, but a lot less than Ferrell and Ruffing, so his batting WAR/WAA is closer to accurate.
Next I will consider how to adjust for this.
Re: Ferrell’s hitting. I`ve been giving this a lot of thought and here’s what I think.
1) I think we can all agree that Ferrell added a lot of value with his bat, relative to other pitchers.
2) He seems to have added about 10-15 wins relative to other pitchers.
3) The question seems to be whether those additional wins are “above average”, “above replacement” or both.
4) Here’s where I think the problem lies. The concepts of “above average” or “above replacement” for pitcher’s hitting don’t make any sense. Why?
Because no team has ever made a decision on which pitchers to use based on how those pitchers hit.
No team would ever say: “Sandy Koufax is a hell of a pitcher but he just can’t hit so we’re going to bench him and use a better hitting pitcher”.
Likewise, no team has ever said: “Sure Pitcher X gives up a lot of runs, but he sure can hit so we’d prefer to use him rather a better pither”. As a real world example, once he switched to being a position player, Rick Ankiel never pitched again.
So we can argue all day about whether the additional runs that Ferrell’s bat provided are “above average” or “above replacement” or both. But there’s no way to answer the question because the question really doesn’t make any sense. You can statistically compute how many runs Ferrell added, as Baseball Reference did. But that’s about all you can do.
@132, even if he was being used as a pinch-hitter, is there not value to have that player on your roster, over a replacement pitcher? Like, his teams got to essentially save a roster spot because they didn’t have a whole row of non-PH-worthy pitchers on the roster, they had that plus one pitcher who could pinch hit. I think that is definitely worth some value above having a position player who was as good a bat as Farrell taking up space.
Of course, the whole distinction of putting him in the field vs. having him come off the bench as a hitter without playing anywhere and getting credited as a pitcher, on a game-to-game basis, is a bit arbitrary. Plus the comments summarized in 156 are also true. But to the point at 132, I do think having a pitcher who can pinch hit off the bench is more valuable than having another roster spot taken up by that bat. Quantifying that is just tricky.
I think it might be instructive to compare Lefty O’Doul’s 1934 season with Wes Ferrell’s 1935 season (the batting portion).
O’Doul had 10.9 Rbat in 197 PAs – he went .316/.383/.525 with 9 HRs, OPS+ 143.
Ferrell had 10.1 Rbat in 179 PAs – he went .347/.427/.533 with 7 HRs, OPS+ 141. I don’t really care about the counting stats (other than Rbat), they’re just their to give some idea of what the players did in similar sample sizes.
Ferrell has nothing for Rbaser, Rdp or Rfield; O’Doul has -0 Rbaser and -1 Rfield. That leaves O’Doul and Ferrell both with about 10 RAA, not counting positional differences. Now, O’Doul has 0.8 WAA and Ferrell has 2.6, and the difference is in Rpos: 18 for Ferrell, -2 for O’Doul.
To me it doesn’t look like Ferrell is getting any extra credit or being compared only to pitchers when calculating his Rbat. He has really similar numbers to 1934 O’Doul and 1935 Babe Phelps, and worse numbers than 1936 Bruce Campbell (who had 13.7 Rbat). I was looking for players around 1935 who had 9+ Rbat in less than 200 PAs.
That was Ferrell, in 179 PAs. Dave Concepcion in his best season had 10 Rbat: 1978 or 1979. He didn’t have anything near a 140 OPS+; it was 114 in 1978. In 1979 Concepcion had 2.8 WAA – he had 10 Rbat, 3 Rbaser, -1 Rdp, 5 Rfield, and 10 Rpos. A lot of that WAA for Concepcion comes from his Rpos – so why would we knock Ferrell down for that? If Concepcion accumulated Rbat at the rate of Ferrell, he would have had -43 Rbat for his career rather than -120, and he would have been a much more valuable player. Concepcion had 8.0 WAA for his career, but that’s only because his Rpos wipes out his negative Rbat and Rdp; he would be at something like -5 WAA without his Rpos.
I suppose one could argue that not all of Ferrell’s PAs came as a pitcher – but 142 of them did in 1935. The other 37 came as a sub (which likely means PH, but possibly in one of his relief appearances). I’m not sure how PH appearances are taken into account in calculating Rpos, but Ferrell doesn’t get any Rrep for those PH appearances. So maybe some of Ferrell’s RAA should be “transferred” to Rrep because he did pinch hit a lot, but I can’t see it being very much.
I would guess the reason that we haven’t added any other pitcher’s WAR as a hitter to their WAR as pitcher is because it doesn’t really matter for most post-WWII pitchers. There are only 39 pitchers post-1901 who had 5+ WAR batting, and 24 of those started playing before WWII. Maddux has 2.3 WAR/WAA as a hitter; Bob Gibson has 8.0; Mussina has 0.3; Blyleven has -1.2 – doesn’t matter.
Bob Lemon had 11.3 WAR/WAA as a hitter – but only 37.5 WAR as a pitcher, so it doesn’t matter there either. Same with Hershiser (5.1 WAR batting) or Don Newcombe (9.0 WAR batting). But for Ferrell and Drysdale – well, it matters because they are close. It will get more interesting when Red Ruffing comes on the ballot – 55.4 WAR pitching, 15.0 WAR batting.
As for pitchers with negative WAR as a hitter, the biggest question mark comes from someone we’ve already elected, Sandy Koufax. There are only 24 pitchers who lose 4 or more WAR from batting since 1901, and my guess is that we’ll probably let Lefty Grove’s -6.3 batting WAR slide when he comes up for election. Stan Coveleski is probably another pitcher for whom batting WAR could make the difference (65.5 pitching WAR, -5.0 batting WAR).
Ok. let’s look at how we should be handling pitcher batting WAR/WAA.
Points I am taking for granted (some are my opinion, some are facts verifiable by reading the B-R documentation, please correct me if I’ve misread/misinterpreted some of these):
OPINION: If the positional adjustment is reasonable, and only given for when they are actually pitching, then we can take Bref values at face value. WAA represents how much more valuable they were than the average pitcher in their place, and WAR is the same, which makes sense because pitchers as batters are generally terrible, so they should get extra credit for just being there as an average (pitcher as batter). That’s how bRef handles things.
FACT: Currently bRef calculates pitcher rPos as R * PA, where R varies by context but typically, .08 < R < .125 Runs/PA
OPINION: Pitchers that are good enough to be used as pinch hitters in games where they never pitch *shouldn't* get rPos credit, but..
FACT: bRef is currently giving it to them.
FACT: Pinch hitters who aren't pitchers currently get exactly zero rPos for pinch hitting appearances, since position player rPos is based on IP in the field, and not PAs.
Ok, given these premises, how can we come close to correcting what B-R is doing fairly simply?
Well the obvious would be to identify what the runs/PA is, then how many pinch hit PAs they had, and subtract it from both WAR and WAA, then add back what the standard rRep per PA is for position players into WAR only.
Well, it's a lot of play by play digging to get the pinch hit PA numbers for sure, but I think we can come close by assuming that pinch hit PAs == games batted minus games pitched or in the field. Generally, unless you are part of a big run, if you come in and don't end up playing the field, you probably just got 1 PA.
Also since the runs/PA varies in a pretty tight zone, I'm ok with just using .11 (which is about average). Similarly with rRep/PA for position players — it's about .034 per PA on average, and doesn't vary all that much from year to year.
Ok if we do that for Ferrel, here's what we get. He batted in 548 games, but only pitched in 374, so that gives him 174 pinch hit games, and we'll estimate 174 pinch hit PAs. He's getting .11 runs per PA for those that he shouldn't which amounts to a total of 19.4 runs. That should be subtracted from his batting WAR and his batting WAA. OTOH, he's *not* getting .034 runs per PA of rRep for those, so that much (a total of 5.9 runs) should be added back to his WAR only (not WAA, since rRep is not included in WAA). Average runs per win for his career was 11.0, so…
that results in docking him 1.7 WAA, and 1.2 WAR for batting. not a huge adjustment really, but it makes sense. He was essentially an average bat, so almost all his value from batting as a pitcher comes from the positional adjustment. Well about 1.8 of his PAs were pinch hit, so that's going to remove about 1/8 of his WAA. WAR gets adjusted less because he had some value as an average pinch hitter, just not as much as batting league average in the pitcher's slot. That puts him at 38.4 WAA+ and 60.2 WAR by my lights.
Let's do the same for the two other pitchers we've mentioned so far where it is an issue:
Red Ruffing: 882 games batted and 624 games pitched suggesting 258 pinch hit PAs. That's 28.4 runs docked from WAA, and 28.4-8.8 or 19.6 runs docked from WAR. At 11.0 runs/win that's 2.6 WAA and 1.8 WAR. so he finishes with 29.3 WAA+ and 68.6 WAR.
That leaves Ruffing's value profile looking a lot like Sutton, and Ferrel's looking a lot like Cone.
I'd say it leaves them both decent candidates, even if just a bit worse than a simple addition of batting WAR would say.
How about Drysdale?
He gets a much smaller adjustment since he only pinch hit in 29 games. 518 games pitched, and 547 batted. That ends up being a dock of 3.2 runs to WAA, and 2.2 to WAR. Drysdale is playing during the little deadball era, rather than the roaring 30s, so his runs/win are 9.5 giving a dock of .3 and .2 to his WAA and WAR, leaving him with this profile:
35.1 WAA+ 66.9 WAR.
That leaves him somewhere in between. I think I take him over Ruffing, especially since he's post integration.
So this doesn't really change their basic profiles of being good enough for serious consideration, but maybe not quite good enough to go in over some other guys. It docks them but only by a little bit.
Why shouldn’t a pitcher get the positional adjustment while pinch-hitting?
His primary position is pitcher.
There are a finite number of roster spots.
If you have a pitcher with value as a hitter, that is an added-value.
It is the equivalent of having a 26-man roster in a league of 25s.
Additionally, pitchers pinch-hitting are (probably well over 90% of the time) pinch-hitting FOR pitchers. For all intents and purposes, they ARE the pitcher for the half-inning they’re hitting, and they COULD go out into the game. It just doesn’t bother me; but otherwise, good work!
Dr. Doom:
Now you’ve got me wondering how often pitchers PH for position players. I know that Bob Lemon occasionally did it. You can do a pitcher-by-pitcher search on the PI. Enter the pitcher’s name, select batting event. Click on Plate appearances, then click on PH and a batting order position other than 9th. Then do a manual search of box scores.
Evidently I didn’t scroll down before I made the identical point to Voomo above. Well, I suppose I should just say ‘yeah! what he said!’
I do think this work is valuable in terms of setting the *maximum* adjustment one should make for hitting pitchers. I think that the ‘roster spot’ argument is true, and any statistical adjustment should fall somewhere between the actual numbers and the maximum adjustment. I just think it’s close enough that I’ll take the numbers at face value, and take the rest into context for the final calculus of all those intangibles that makes one prefer one player’s resume over another.
Most games pinch-hitting since 1914, by Pitchers, by BOP (excl. 9th).
Ferrell had 18 games, 8 of them batting 8th.
Appling, Cone, Eckersley
Alomar, Miñoso, Nettles.
My apologies if no one cares about this, but I really need to get this out of my chest.
Yesterday was one of my worst days as a baseball fan. As some of you know, I´m a fan of Mexican Pacific (Winter) League´s Aguilas de Mexicali. Well, yesterday in the first game of the semis in Culiacan, they lost a 7-0, 5th inning lead to the Tomateros (Tomato Growers). In the home 9th, with Mexicali leading by one, closer Francisco Rodriguez (not that one) gave up a 2 run single to Russell Branyan (yes, that one).
Today in the second game of the series, is former Atlanta Brave, Horacio Ramirez for Mexicali against Oakland A´s farmhand Arnold Leon.
Former Major Leaguers in Mexicali´s roster includes Humberto Cota (Pit), Gil Velazquez (Bos), Chris Roberson (Phi), Dave Sappelt (Cubs), Francisco Rodriguez (LAA), Esmailin Caridad (Cubs).
Culiacan roster includes Oscar Robles (SD), Oscar Villareal (Ari), Ali Solis(SD), Ramiro Peña(NYY) and Dennis Reyes(he is still pitching).
Sorry to see that it happened to your team, but it’s pretty awesome to hear that Russell the Muscle is still plugging away, and I’m sure it surprised everybody to see him win it with a single(!) of all things.
I always enjoy the updates on the Aguilas Luis! Better luck tonight.
As a Tigers fan I have some sympathy for anyone who’s team has fallen a little short at crunch time.
Better luck today and going forward.
Personally I always enjoy your posts about the Aguilas (Eagles), Luis — hearing about actual, exciting baseball games in the dead of winter here is invigorating. Sorry about that collapse. Russell Branyan had two walk-off hits in his MLB career — one homer and one single.
To echo birtelcom, it’s totally awesome to hear your updates. Watching a collapse is no fun (I’m a big Brewers fan, and we were in first for like 115 days this year and barely finished above .500), but hearing your discussions about active baseball in the winter is great. Thanks for the update, even if it comes with bad news.
Luis,
If I could, I’d certainly watch Mexican WINTER ball rather than Greg Amsinger and KevinMillar or Matt Vasgarskan on the MLB channel 🙁
An update on that Mexican Pacific Winter League playoff series between the Aguilas of Mexicali and the Tomateros of Culiacan (about 700 miles south and east of Mexicali): The Eagles yesterday easily got revenge for the previous day’s collapse with a 7-1 victory over the Tomato Growers. Horacio Ramirez got the win by scattering five hits while not allowing a walk over six innings. Ramirez started 84 games for the Atlanta Braves over 2003-2006. He was then traded by the Braves for Rafael Soriano but his MLB career kind of went awry after that.
By the way, Mexicali sits just across the California border and is only about 130 miles, due east, from San Diego. The city of Mexicali has a population about half that of the city of San Diego. Culiacan is about 700 miles or so south and east of Mexicali.
On Wednesday, the best-of-7 series comes to Mexicali, where 18,000 seat, Estadio B-Air (yes, an English name) will host games 3 to 5. A capacity crowd is expected each night.
Both managers in this series have Major League experience. Mexicali manager is 17-year MLB veteran infielder, Juan Castro; and Culiacan manager Benji Gil is a former 1st Round Draft Pick, with 8 seasons in his MLB career, including the 2001 WS Championship season with the Angels.
Finally, I´d like to thank everybody for all the kind words and best wishes. It is nice to know that, even if we come from different backgrounds, we have something in common, and that is the love for this wonderful game of baseball.
Muchas Gracias a todos.
Luis Tiant, Richie Ashburn, Dwight Evans
I can’t make up my mind about the new guys at this point; I like Thome, but I am torn by his similarities to Killebrew, and I don’t know what to make of Jim Edmonds with so many borderline candidates on the ballot. I will go with some favorites who need votes, each returned in a different redemption round, even.
Edmonds had 7980 PA.
There are 85 players who had between 7600-8400 PA.
Edmonds is 9th in WAR among that group.
89.8 … (8257) Lajoie
72.9 … (7722) Arky
72.6 … (8030) Larry Walker
70.9 … (8220) Grich
66.5 … (8237) Snider
64.5 … (8051) Reggie Smith
62.8 … (8272) Ken Boyer
61.4 … (8287) Bando
60.3 … (7980) Edmonds
59.4 … (7811) Miguel Cabrera*
59.4 … (7745) Piazza
________
WAR and WAA like Edmonds.
Here’s where he stands among other COG members in Plate Appearances per Win Above Average through 8000 PA:
219.3 … Duke Snider
219.6 … Frank Thomas
224.1 … Willie McCovey
225.3 … Tim Raines
228.7 … Edmonds (7980)
231.1 … Craig Biggio
232.9 … Lou Whitaker
233.0 … Yogi Berra
240.1 … Ozzie Smith
241.1 … Tony Gwynn
________
Edmonds and Snider played 17 and 18 years respectively.
Here are the WAR leaders at CF for the eras spanning 4 years on either side of their careers (1989-2014 and 1943-1968). And you’ll see that Ashburn sneaks into the study…
And this is for guys with at 75% of career games at CF, as Beltran and Snider were good like that.
83.6 … Griffey
68.2 … Lofton
62.8 … Andruw
60.3 … Edmonds
49.4 … Bernie
139.8 … Mays
109.7 … Mantle
66.5 … Snider
63.4 … Ashburn
49.5 … Doby
Voom:
Shouldn’t Beltran be in there at 67.5 WAR? Or, did he drop off because of the 122 games at DH (in addition to 400+ in RF)?
Yeah, Beltran is at 78% (2005/1572).
When I ran the searches, Mantle (76%) didn’t come up either.
I manually put him in. It was odd. Not sure what the deal is.
If you lower the threshold to 72% Mantle’s name shows up. He played 1742 of his 2401 games (72.6%) in CF.
Ah, I see my mistake.
I was looking at his defensive games (2290).
Did the same with Beltran. Carlos is actually at 72%.
And defensive games played is usually a little inaccurate because playing more than one position in a game is double-counted, triple-counted, etc.
Thome
Campanella
Appling
Vote update for Tuesday AM, through Joel @126:
21 (50.00%) – Jim Thome
14 (33.33%) – Luke Appling
11 (26.19%) – Harmon Killebrew
8 (19.05%) – Roberto Alomar
7 (16.67%) – Graig Nettles
6 (14.29%) – David Cone, Dave Winfield
5 (11.90%) – Richie Ashburn, Kevin Brown, Roy Campanella, Dizzy Dean, Dennis Eckersley, Eddie Murray, Rick Reuschel
4 (9.52%) – Don Drysdale, Luis Tiant
3 (7.14%) – Wes Ferrell, Minnie Minoso
2 (4.76%) – Jim Edmonds, Dwight Evans
Thome’s lead may, at this point, be insurmountable. This is especially true if there’s a concerted effort to keep all or most of the players at the bottom of the ballot from falling off. As I’m guessing that’s what many of our remaining voters may be doing, this one may already be in the bag.
Poor Eddie Murray. That dude is often near the top of the ballot; this time, he’s fighting to hold onto his 3 rounds of eligibility.
There are some weird coincidences on this ballot: the two Dave/David’s have the same level of support; so do our two position players whose last names begin with E. The crew at 5 votes has last names beginning with A, B, C, D, and E. Killebrew 2.0 is out-polling Killebrew 1.0 almost exactly 2-1.
Lack of support for Edmonds and Evans probably has multiple reasons.
Edmonds may be getting obscured by Ashburn (who has HOF status, popularity, and better WAR) despite his PaWaa lead among all hitters on this ballot. Edmonds is tied with Killebrew for 15th in WAR (60.3) out of the 20 main candidates, and does not have a loyal support group to ensure he sticks around. That’s too bad, since centerfield is harder to find high skill levels vs. 1B, but name recognition is helping others.
Evans may be suffering by comparisons to Winfield as well. Winfield has the HOF, name recognition, and 465HR/3110H while Dewey can only muster 385HR/2446H as a 20 year veteran as well. Those glitzy numbers hide the fact that Evans has more WAR than Winfield (66.9 vs 63.8), better WAA & PaWaa, and played significantly better defense. But Winfield has the sexy stats, bigger name, and stronger support.
Neither has had time to build momentum, and there’s 8 different pitchers battling on this ballot too. With few votes to go around, competition at their position may put them in redemption land quickly, unfortunately.
More generally, I suspect people generally perceive them as just shy of where they need to be for serious consideration. Both under 60 oWAR and with just one 7 WAR season between them.
But at least Murray will still have two rounds of eligibility. Tiant is in danger of losing his only extra round, which he gained quite recently. And the recently redeemed Evans and Drysdale are in danger of falling back off the ballot. I’m willing to vote for all 3 unless Appling shows signs of a comeback. Of course, Evans needs a lot more help than what I can do on my own…
Minoso, Alomar Reuschel
Looking at Jim Thome’s BR page before voting this time, I noticed that he was drafted in the 13th round of the 1989 draft, and remembering that Pujols went even later a decade further on, I thought I would try to get a handle on how likely it has been for a late draft pick to have a significant major league career. Many of you have other players in mind who were drafted late and went on to have stellar careers; but i wanted to measure the phenomenon. So far , I’ve only looked at 4 drafts ; 1989,1990,1991,and 1992 but already some interesting pattens emerge.
What Should we expect? Well – 750 people are employed as players at any one time, and in a steady state 75 or so of them need replacing every year- Not all players enter via the draft , of course, about a third of them come from countries not covered by the draft; on the other hand , we really need a pool of major league-ready players larger than 750 to cover injuries, and the generally fruitless search for above-replacement performance so maybe we should expect about 75 players to come out of the draft and have significant playing time – Jim Thome is perhaps about the 100 th best player to play the game over the last century – so we should expect about 1 player as good as Jim every year – all else being equal.
I was expecting to find that lots of good players were overlooked; instead I came away with renewed respect for scouts-
of the 5000 or so players drafted over those 4 years , 110 ,or about 2% went on to accumulate 10+ WAR at the major league level – of those 110, 30 were among the first thirsty players chosen (30 players = 1 round without compensation picks) – so based on this limited sample, a first round selection has about a 1 in 4 chance to “star” in MLB ,if we can call a 10 WAR player at least a minor star
“diamonds in the rough ” Like Thome , are rare, but occur often enough to justify an investment in last round picks — 36 players who accumulated 10+ WAR were chosen after pick # 300 (10 standard rounds ) comprising about about 1% of the 4000 players chosen in rounds 11-99.
Cleveland had great luck or skill in the late rounds in 1989– in addition to Thome, they picked up Brian Giles with the 437th overall pick.
Other notable late picks
-Jeff Kent 523rd, 1989
-Andy Pettitte , 594th, 1990
-Jorge Posada, 646th, 1990 (damn yankees!
-Mike Cameron 488th, 1991
-Darin Erstad 357th, 1992
I realize this is a small data sample — I will continue to look into scouting efficiency in other years. and maybe post on an appropriate thread.
Apologies if this is old news to those of you with a deeper knowledge of the draft than I have
Two names that immediately spring to mind are Mike Piazza taken in the 62nd round of the 1988 draft as a favor to his uncle, Tommy Lasorda and Donnie Baseball Mattingly taken at the end of the 19th round of the 1979 draft.
But if someone ever works out a WAR per draft position formula it’s difficult to imagine that anyone will ever outdo Piazza.
Keith Hernandez was chosen in the 42nd round of the 1971 draft (785th overall).
For clarification, that’s not an indication of what people thought of his ability at the time – he was a well-known talent, though I believe he had a reputation as a hothead while in high school and may have been pursuing some college offers (possibly to play football as well as baseball). So teams backed away from him. He has one or two books out there and he mentions it in at least one of them.
Closer to home, Rick Ankiel was widely regarded as a potential #1 overall pick. He fell to the second round (I know that’s outside of BryanM’s study of picks in the 300+ range – I just offer it up as another potential reason) because of one word: Boras.
Wait..two Rick Ankiel mentions in the same thread on the same say for two completely different reasons??? How weird is that!!!???
(see my #158 for the other one).
Certainly the prevalence of high draft picks among high career achievers suggests that scouting is pretty good. But there may also be some element of selection bias showing up, too. A high draft pick who disappoints for some period of time may get a second chance or a third, while a lower draft pick may be given up on much more quickly. In short, I’m not sure it’s necessarily true that both types of guys are given equal opportunities to display their natural talents. Which may make the relatively greater level of success by higher draft picks a bit of a self-fulfilling prophecy.
Birtelcom – I was thinking the same thing re: high draft picks. Also, teams likely invest more resources in the development of their first round picks.
As for lower round picks who turned out to be stars, some players drop in the draft because teams are convinced that they’re going to college. I believe that was the case with Mattingly, for example.
Birtlecom — Certainly the majority of 1st round picks have to prove they can’t play at major league level while late picks have to prove they can, there probably is a selection bias, which I tried to allow for by focussing on players who accumulated 10+ WAR, kind of an “obviously this guy is good ” screen . What is surprising is how short the leash is on high picks who don’t perform. In that same 1989 Draft, 23 of the 30 players had at least some ML time, in support of your point – however, 11 of them had less than 1 WAR, accumulated over a total of 585 games between them , these guys had careers of 15, 16, 22 or 44 games — second and third chances, maybe, but damn short ones..
I think what’ you’re seeing is “good enough to be AAAA fill in’s but not really good enough to be given a shot”. That’s a significant chunk of MLB players over time.
I don’t know how many people remember Dave McCarty, who was the third overall pick in 1991 by the Twins. Stanford graduate, tall, rangy guy. They brought him up in May of 1993, he got into 98 games, was bad (-2.7 bWar) He ended up playing for five teams over thirteen year (two of which he spent completely in the minors). The maximum plate appearances he had, 371, was in that rookie year. 1647 PA’s Lifetime OPS+ of 76. Played on one losing team after another until ending up with the Red Sox 2003-2005 as a very part timer. A very good line over 11 AAA seasons–.312/.400/.533, with some power that be never showed at the major league level. Fun fact–in 2004 he actually pitched in 3 relief appearances for the Red Sox. A guy like this, high draft pick, shows a lot in the minors, can’t do at the ML level, but occasionally tempts, has to be a killer for a front office.
Or consider Jeremy Guthrie. Drafted in the first round by the Indians in 2002. Put together a spotty minor league record.
Pitched for the Indians from 2004-2006 and was awful: 6.08 ERA with 23 walks vs 24 Ks.
The Indians released him and he was picked up by Baltimore where he turned into a success (20.1 career WAR).
Does Baltimore sign him and give him a chance if he hadn’t been a former first round pick???
Yes. He’s a former first round pick because he has good fastball velocity. That’s still there when he’s 27 and on waivers. He also pitched 123 innings of 3.14 ERA in AAA that season Cleveland dumped him. I guarantee anybody who puts up numbers like that in AAA is going to at least get a AAA job somewhere the next season.
I 2007 when the Orioles picked him up he averaged 93.8 MPH with his fastball and touched triple digits. That’s going to turn heads regardless of age and draft round.
I think there are some obvious reasons why guys go in the first round and those reasons are often still there when they’re hovering around AAA/MLB in their mid 20s. It’s those obvious reasons that get them attention not first round bias.
David P:
Kevin Gregg wasn’t/isn’t exactly Goose Gossage or Mariano Rivera as far as effectiveness is concerned but, if you throw 95 MPH, some team will take a flyer on you
Birtlecom:
20+ years ago at one of those spring training events hosted by former Major leaguers for the benefit of ‘fantasy’ lovers, Rick Wise told a buddy of mine, “If they like you, they’ll give you every chance to succeed. If they don’t like you, you”ll get one chance to fail”
Sorry — should have been “first thirty players chosen” not “first thirsty players chosen” – my best typo this year
First players chosen on Thursday?
Regarding the Wes Ferrell discussion above:
If I were drafting a team from the players on our ballot,
Wes Ferrell would be my #1 pick.
Averaged 266 IP (5.6 WAR) over his first 9 years as a league average hitter.
Nobody does that.
There was a guy named Ruth who did it for 4.
His teammate Smoky Joe Wood for 7, but less reliable IP.
George Mullin had the durability and the bat, but was a league average pitcher.
When Ferrell was pitching, he was usually the better pitcher, AND his team had a lineup with 9 hitters. The other team had only eight.
A pitcher who can hit provides an advantage on both defense and offense.
This is demonstrable:
Ferrell Batting Splits
.326/.391/.540/.931 in Wins
.213/.294/.309/.604 in Losses
Koufax:
.100/.151/.120/.271 in Wins
.085/.124/.102/.225 in Losses
Nolan Ryan:
.124/.162/.152/.314 in Wins
.090/.127/.107/.234 in Wins
Red Ruffing:
.307/.350/.439/.790 in Wins
.223/.249/.328/.577 in Wins
Voomo: You have to be careful in drawing conclusions from those stats. Yes, those 4 guys all hit better in their team wins but so did just about every player in the game. There have been 4733 ML players with 500+ PA and 4680 of them hit better in their team’s wins.
Richard, I illustrated two good hitting pitchers and two bad hitting pitchers to show the difference in the spread.
Sandy and Nolan were still bad, regardless of the outcome.
Red and Wes’ numbers illustrate the effect of the their efforts at the plate.
I guess I misunderstood your point.
Perhaps I was too obtuse in trying to make that point. Yes, players usually hit better in wins than losses.
Only with pitchers, there tends to be less of a split, because they are generally lousy at the plate.
So for a pitcher who hits well (.326/.391/.540/.931),
it can be argued that his hitting contributed to those wins.
This is fairly obvious.
What is not obvious is just how valuable that is.
It has been argued on this thread that a pitcher’s WAA and WAR should not be equal. Also that a pitcher who often pinch hits should not valued as a pitching-batter.
I’m of the opinion that a pitcher who changes the game with his bat is a rare beast. One that the other team doesn’t have. And I want half a dozen of them on my team.
____
Batting Splits of the highest OPS+ hitting pitchers with at least 1000 PA (since 1920):
Wes Ferrell
.326/.391/.540/.931 in Wins
.213/.294/.309/.604 in Losses
Schoolboy Rowe
.301/.369/.463/.832 in Wins
.208/.265/.260/.526 in Losses
George Uhle
.351/.394/.461/.855 in Wins
.215/.277/.293/.570 in Losses
Bob Lemon
.257/.312/.429/.741 in Wins
.186/.247/.306/.553 in Losses
Ruffing
.307/.350/.439/.790 in Wins
.223/.249/.328/.577 in Wins
_______
And the lowest OPS+:
Bob Friend
.128/.156/.144/.300 in Wins
.109/.135/.139/.275 in Losses
Jerry Koosman
.129/.168/.144/.312 in Wins
.103/.125/.136/.261 in Losses
Gaylord Perry
.137/.163/.175/.338 in Wins
.120/.134/.141/.275 in Losses
Lefty Gomez
.156/.206/.170/.376 in Wins
.121/.158/.130/.288 in Losses
Danny MacFayden
.146/.181/.183/.364 in Wins
.138/.176/.174/.350 in Losses
Yes, every guy in MLB history with a long career has a better performance in wins than in losses. Using the Split Finder, everyone with at least 1000 team wins has a tOPS+ in those games between 116 and 139.
Tied for the best tOPS+ split in wins (139) are Willie Stargell, Gary Gaetti, and Lee May. The bottom three marks are shared by seven players: Brett Butler, Pee Wee, and Jeter at 119; Frankie Frisch, Bill Russell, and Goose Goslin at 118; and Frank Crosetti at 116. You’re just as likely to find the Hall of Famers at the bottom of the list as at the top.
Only two non-pitchers with 1000+ PA have better career OPS in losses than in wins, and only by the smallest of margins. Andy Allanson and Bill Plummer were both reserve catchers and neither reached 2000 PA. They were just plain bad anytime, both with career OPS below .600.
Ok, ok, Ferrell could hit. But can we not forget that he has a very real case as a peak pitcher as well? Over a 8 year pitching peak, he had over 6 pitching WAR 6 our of 8 and averaged *6.2* pitching war per season! That’s right up there with the legendary 8 year peak totals of Koufax (6.3) and Marichal (6.5) and blows away the other guys on the ballot like Drysdale (5.6), Reuschel (5.5), Dean (5.3) and Tiant (4.9). And that analysis is ignoring their bats. Ferrell outhit them all with a .285/.350/.466 line over 1085 PA’s in those years.
I think the issue is, unlike Koufax, Ferrell doesn’t have THE black ink (the Triple Crown type stats). THE black ink belonged to Lefty Grove during that time, in much the same way THE black ink belonged to Koufax in his prime.
Ferrell finished second with 8.0, 6.1, 6.7, and 8.4 pitching WAR, and third in 1936 with 6.9. The first place pitcher was Lefty Grove every one of those years. Now, that’s slightly unfair to Ferrell – Curt Schilling never led the league in pitching WAR, but he did finish 2nd 3 times, 3rd once, and 4th 4 times (a lot of those behind guys like Randy Johnson and Johan). Ferrell lacks the longevity of Schilling that lets people look past the second place finishes (even though they are to all-time greats).
In addition, the nature of the game has changed. In 1931 Ferrell had 6.1 pitching WAR, 2nd behind Grove. He struck out 123, 6th in the league. He walked 130, first in the league. Ferrell has 3 seasons (1929, 1931, 1936) like this – 6+ WAR, K/BB less than 1. Since 1901, no one else has more than one such season, and the last time it happened was 1975 when Carl Morton went 17-16 with a 3.50 ERA, 108 ERA+, and a 0.95 K/BB in 277.2 innings.
I agree that he had a tremendous peak – 50.9 pitching WAR in the 10 years from 1928-1937, PLUS another 11.9 hitting WAR in those 10 years (and yes, he looks better if the time span is shorter but I’ve been using 10 years for other players). In total that’s about the same as Schilling’s best decade (1995-2004 gives Schilling 60.9 pitching WAR, and -0.8 batting WAR), but again, Schilling has good seasons (1992, 2006, 2007) outside that peak.
He’s going to be a tough sell because he’s on the border and his stats don’t jump out at people. If he had his peak, 60 pitching WAR, and his hitting WAR he would probably sail in. When Red Ruffing comes up in a few ballots he will be an interesting case because he has the career numbers (70 total WAR) but not the peak of Ferrell.
To me, Ruffing doesn’t make the cut. He averaged less in his best two years, with hitting, that Ferrell did with just pitching in his best 8 years. He barely has more value and that’s only counting it out from the guy’s teens to his 40s!
You have to completely ingore peak to think that Ruffing > Ferrell. Even from a WAA perspective, ignoring hitting or not ignoring hitting, they’re not particularly close. Ignoring hitting, Ferrell has 58% more WAA than Ruffing. Including hitting it’s still a huge 22% lead. These are not small differentiators. Ruffing sucks out 40.3 replacement level wins (pitching WAR-WAA) which is historically high. His RAR/RAA, a number for a COG player that is typically around 2 (Mussina for example is 1.92, Koufax 1.94) is all the way up at 4.4! Nolan Ryan, the great accumulator, is only at 2.7. Ferrell’s down at 2.4 with just his pitching. Far better with his hitting
Ferrell isn’t Red Ruffing with a few less pitching war, he’s a truly great pitcher with an historic bat. Ruffing was a mediocre pitcher with an historic bat who proved unusually durable.
Ruffing has a terrible case for anybody who looks at WAA and an even worse case for anyone who looks at peak years. Ferrell has a great WAA case and an even better case for those who look at peak years.
Re Ruffing in response to Mosc #213
1) Ruffing did lose a few years to WWII. Granted he was past his prime but he did accumulate positive WAR and WAA both before and after the war.
2) I believe in the past you’ve argued that post season performance should matter a lot. Ruffing pitched quite well during the post season, going 7-2 with a 2.63 ERA (much better than his regular season ERAs). Ferrell, on the other hand, never pitched in the postseason.
3) Doesn’t the “Whitey Ford rule” apply for Ruffing as well, at least for the Yankee portion of his career? Ford supporters argued that his WAR wasn’t accurate because he was pitching behind a plus defense and in a pitcher’s park. (I believe you are one of those who made that argument, though I apologize if I’m wrong about that).
Anyway, during the Yankees portion of his career (not counting the partial season of 1930), Ruffing threw 2971 innings with a RA9def of +.18 and a Park Factor of 94.3. Those numbers match Ford quite well (3170.1 IP, RA9def of +.24, Park Factor of 94.8).
I don’t know if the theory is correct but if it is, it means that WAR is underestimating Ruffing’s value during the Yankee portion of his career.
Important points. Ruffing won 6 rings spanning the end of Ruth, most of Gehrig, and the beginning of DiMaggio. I get the post season extra value in terms of career significance but the guy had very little peak.
The yankees in the late 30s had one of the best defenses combined with an extreme pitcher’s park. In his peak years though, he pitched in front of some poorer defenses. His career average of .10 RADEF he didn’t see over a complete season until his 12th year in the league. He was arguably better in his 30s than his 20s though, so I understand what you’re saying. Still, his career RA9def is less that half that of Ford’s and his park adjustment is significantly weaker too. I agree with the argument that these are not symmetrical components and they don’t scale linearly but I don’t think his career WAR is nearly as hampered as Ford. The effect increases non-linearly with the magnitude. I wish I had more time to pull some more examples and dig into this with something more than intuition but my gut is you have to have a very pitcher friendly park and defense and be a very good pitcher (or all three in reverse) to get into a substantial correction.
It is an interesting though though because it might give Ruffing a pitching peak in the late 30s say 34-41. Still, giving him the benefit of league average defense without changing his runs allowed (a fairly extreme mark), a period in which he had Ford-esque conditions of .27 RA9def and a 94.3 park factor, he’d get another 57 runs prevented. Another 6 WAA. Using a league average park you get a similar number though the math is much harder. They’re both trying to correct the same thing in the end, his RA9. Assuming a quadratic, you could argue that the actual correction would be more like -9WAA instead of -12WAA meaning he’d be off by about 3 WAA over the 8 years. Bad approximation here, I’m not using enough math but I don’t think if you support the argument that Ruffing’s correction would be even half that of Ford’s and occurred when ruffing was already in his 30s where ford was hit over a stronger peak. Ford’s ERA in those conditions was the best in the league. Ruffing’s was not.
A comparison with Ford ought to include Ruffing’s home-road splits. Ruffing in his big four year binge—and he was playing for a Yankee team far more dominant than Whitey’s, however good Whitey’s were—shows a huge disparity in ERA between Yankee Stadium and elsewhere:
1936: 3.16/4.92
1937: 2.66/3.39
1938: 2.53/4.31
1939: 2.24/3.62
Career: 3.20/4.49
Ford had some poor years in this regard:
1955: 1.69/3.96
1961: 2.65/ 3.84
But he generally performed like this:
1953: 2.85/3.20
1956: 2.32/2.63
1958: 2.71/1.27 (!)
1964:2.02/2.29
Career: 2.58/2.94.
It seems to me that Ruffing’s effectiveness was far more dependent on being in a pitcher’s park than Ford’s.
In my mind, Red Ruffing is a almost a perfect match to Early Wynn, at least in terms of regular season stats.
E Wynn: 300-244, .551 W%, 107 ERA+, 4560 IP
Ruffing: 273-225, .548 W%, 109 ERA+, 4340 IP
Value-wise:
E Wynn: 51.6 WAR, 16.6 WAA, 9.7 hitting WAR
Ruffing: 55.4 WAR, 15.1 WAA, 15.0 hitting WAR
Both of these guys have several negative WAA seasons in their prime so they get a big benefit from excluding those years. The whole “only count positive-WAA seasons” theory normally works well but kind of breaks down for pitchers like this because WAA for them is less a measure of greatness and more a running tally of how slightly above-average they were. It doesn’t seem totally right to exclude all the years they were slightly below average but include all the ones they were barely above that mark.
But excluding those years and only focusing on pitching WAA, Adam’s formula gives Wynn a 105 Hall rating and Ruffing a 104.
As mosc alludes to, I don’t think Ruffing’s team defensive edge is that significant because he has some years early in his career when he received bad support in that area to offset the good years. The breakdown reminds me of Tom Glavine’s career.
Ruffing’s postseason performance sets him apart from Wynn, if you’re a guy who gives credit for that. Ruffing won 6 straight World Series starts from 1937 to 1942, going the distance in all but the last game of that stretch. (Is that a record, six straight WS wins?)
If you’re a guy who counts hitting WAR as WAA, Ruffing should get some consideration as a low-peak, high-longevity counterpart to the higher-peak-but-peak-only case of Wes Ferrell. He does have over 70 WAR combined.
@228 Bob Gibson won 7 consecutive starts, that’s the record.
Hometown vote this time.
Minoso, Appling, Thome
So far the White Sox season with the most WAR created by COG members is 1992, with 13.6 WAR created by Frank Thomas (6.9), Tim Raines (6.3) and Carlton Fisk (0.4).
I’m wondering what the highest WAR year and team is for the overall list? Braves? 1959 was 23.2 for Matthews, Aaron, and Spahn.
Maybe longer term it’s Braves 1996? Chipper won’t get in until 2017 which I think would seal the deal for that season. Still, 21.6 WAR from Smoltz+Glavine (who hit well that year)+Maddux and then another 6.2 from chipper.
Anybody beat those?
1927 Yankees are coming eventually and got 24.2 from Ruth and Gehrig alone. I don’t know if we let any of the rest in but that’s going to be tough to beat.
Guys between 40 and 55 career WAR on that team:
Urban Shocker
Bob Shawkey
Herb Pennock
Waite Hoyt
Tony Lazzeri
Earle Combs
but I don’t think any of those guys get in so a bunch of pitchers and Chipper probably wins out long term.
Yeah I was just going to mention the ’27 Yankees.
I suppose Shocker has an outside chance: 58.8 career WAR in a short career which was ended by a heart condition. Don’t see anyone else from that team getting in.
Lazerri was third in the league in HR.
Nvm all that I think the giants have this in the bag.
The 1966 Giants
Mays 9.0
McCovey 5.9
Marichal 9.1
Perry 5.2
+0.5 WAR if you consider Marichal and Perry’s hitting
=29.7 WAR
The Giants of the 1960s are the current champs in terms of total WAR by COG members in a season. Their best year on that score was 1966, when Mays, McCovey, Marichal and Perry combined for 29.2 WAR if you don’t count hitting WAR for the pitchers and 29.7 if you ad in the hitting WAR for the pitchers (Marichal had a .250 batting average that year and his .587 OPS was higher than that of the Giants’ priomary second baseman and left fielder that season).
Those 1960s Giants also had other seasons in which the collective WAR of COG members was very high, in the 23 to 28 range. The 1997 Mariners got 23.3 WAR combined from Randy Johnson, Ken Griffey and Edgar Martinez.
If Campanella ever makes it to the COG, his years with Snider, Robinson and Reese will be formidable in this respect as well.
53 dodgers COG with campy are at 28.4. I think that’s as high as they get. Like the ’27 yankees they’d be higher if we let in some slightly below borderline guys like Roe, Furillo, Hodges, or Newcomb. Unlike the ’27 yanks, none of those guys are HOFers.
The Mariners had A-Rod as well. If you count him though they still don’t pass the 1966 Giants. He had a down year in 97 and Unit was traded the following season and was injured the previous year in 96
Ferrell, Tiant, Drysdale
Luke Appling, Dizzy Dean, David Cone
I just never liked Jim Thome. idk why, just never did.
Campanella, Evans, Tiant
Killebrew, Eckersley, and Ashburn
Killebrew,
Eckersley
Ashburn
Whoops sorry for the double vote.
Thursday AM vote update, through Bill Johnson (vote #48) – although I’m only counting one of his two ballots! 🙂
22 (45.83%) – Jim Thome
16 (33.33%) – Luke Appling
12 (25.00%) – Harmon Killebrew
9 (18.75%) – Roberto Alomar
7 (14.58%) – David Cone, Graig Nettles
6 (12.50%) – Richie Ashburn, Roy Campanella, Dizzy Dean, Dennis Eckersley, Rick Reuschel, Luis Tiant, Dave Winfield
5 (10.42%) – Kevin Brown, Don Drysdale, Minnie Minoso, Eddie Murray
4 (8.33%) – Wes Ferrell
3 (6.25%) – Dwight Evans
2 (4.17%) – Jim Edmonds
Obviously, there are a lot of guys who need help. Jim Edmonds will need to appear on about a quarter of the remaining ballots if he’d like to remain on the ballot – that’s a pretty tall order. Evans and Ferrell are in a similar situation. Plus, if the votes go for those guys down there, that could make trouble for the group of 7 (SEVEN!!!!) players stuck on six votes, or the group stuck on five votes – but there are “only” four of them. I expect some vote changes today and/or tomorrow, since we haven’t had any yet.*
*As a courtesy, if you’re going to make a vote change, could you include the words “vote change” somewhere in your comment? For those of us who keep track of voting, it makes life A LOT easier. Thanks!
ok, so I have to vote for Ferrell, not that I wouldn’t have anyway, and probably Drysdale. Oiy. These are superb pitchers at their peaks guys. I don’t understand why Dizzy Dean, a peak pitcher with inferior peak numbers, continues to out-vote these guys.
Poor Eddie Murray is getting less love too with Thome and Killebrew grabbing lots of votes. 500HR and 3000H is a rare combination but he may lose a round anyway – that would be a shame, but maybe later voters will help him out.
I use him as my borderline. Players better I think belong and palyers worse I don’t vote for. We got 4 HOF-ers this year though so it’s possible for me that shifts him to just above my borderline. But I agree, I think he was better than Killebrew because he was a much more complete player. He also had a nice peak where he was among the best guys in the sport. I think Thome’s sheer power and durability beat him out by a little but it’s close.
When I change my vote, I try to do it as a reply to my original vote.
Thome, Appling, Nettles.
Birtelcom – Was vote change at @136 missed?
Not anymore, thanks to you.
Brown, Ferrell, Drysdale
I don’t think Nettles or Appling need my votes so I’m ready to cast:
Ferrell, Drysdale, Campanella.
Cherrypicking Ferrell 10-year peak (1929-1938):
Most Wins:
204 … Grove
195 … Hubbell
190 … Ferrell
163 … Ruffing
153 … Gomez
Most RBI by a Pitcher:
205 .. Ferrell
163 .. Ruffing
91 … Grove
84 … Lyons
77 … Hubbell
Same time span. OPS+ by Pitchers. Minimum 500 PA.
100 .. Ferrell
92 … Ruffing
52 … Schumacker
51 … Warneke
51 … Brandt
______
I’ll stop (for) now.
Just want to drive the point home that when Ferrell was pitching, he was almost always the better pitcher that day, AND his team was playing with a DH.
Nettles, Drysdale, and Appling.
Thome, Farrell, Evans
Continuing my role as ‘The Patron Saint Of Lost COG Causes’:
– Jim Edmonds
– Dwight Evans
– Minnie Minoso
I think I can finally vote!
1) Appling – Still surprised he’s not winning, I think he’s clearly the best player on the ballot. Doubt he comes all the way but who knows?
2) Tiant – To keep his extra year of eligibility
3) Evans – To keep him on the ballot
With apologies to Eddie Murray. Hopefully someone else will pick him up!
Killebrew, Thome, Evans
Murray, Thome & Winfield
Interesting round. I looked at Thome, Killer and Murray, and give the edge to Thome. Higher OPS+, higher WAR than the other two, and .121 margin on OPS over Murray. I decided to drop Killer for this round and look at Murray a second time, after dave humbert’s comment @216. But Winfield’s stats are almost a direct match for Murray’s, and Winnie’s WAR gets pulled down by his defense, which, in all honesty, was not the contemporary evaluation of his time. So, for the first (and probably only) time, I’m picking Winfield. And I’ll stick with Tiant in this round. Appling is doing fine without me, and I want more time to consider Tiant.
Thome, Winfield, Tiant.
Vote:
Jim Edmonds
Wes Ferrell
Eddie Murray
Edmonds was very good from age 25-28.
Injuries at age 29.
Then he got great.
Here’s how the first half of his 30’s stacks up historically:
Age 30-34
Center Fielders (at 50 percent to qualify)
WAR
52.1 … Mays
33.5 … Cobb
32.5 … Speaker
32.0 … Edmonds
25.4 … Averill
24.1 … Seymour
23.6 … Butler
Home Runs
226 … Mays
181 … Edmonds
125 … Torii
122 … Mantle
121 … Averill
116 … Finley
115 … Bernie
RBI
590 … Mays
534 … Averill
501 … Edmonds
496 … Bernie
480 … Puckett
463 … Torii
OPS+
174 … Cobb
174 … Mantle
171 … Mays
157 … DiMaggio
157 … Edmonds
153 … Speaker
142 … Seymour
Last-day-of-voting-AM-update, through Voomo @241, ballot #59:
27 (45.76%) – Jim Thome
19 (32.20%) – Luke Appling
13 (22.03%) – Harmon Killebrew
10 (16.95%) – Graig Nettles
9 (15.25%) – Roberto Alomar
8 (13.56%) – Don Drysdale, Wes Ferrell, Luis Tiant, Dave Winfield
7 (11.86%) – Roy Campanella, David Cone, Dwight Evans, Eddie Murray
6 (10.17%) – Richie Ashburn, Kevin Brown, Dennis Eckersley, Minnie Minoso, Rick Reuschel
5 (8.47%) – Dizzy Dean
4 (6.78%) – Jim Edmonds
Edmonds appears to be dead in the water before his case ever got going, barring strong groupthink from the remaining voters.
Dizzy Dean is also likely to fall off the ballot.
The group at 6 is in trouble – two more votes cast, and they dip below 10%. For Ashburn and Minoso, that would mean falling off entirely. For Eck and Brown, it would mean losing half of the 2 rounds they’ve each stored up. Since it’s unlikely 12 more ballots will be cast today, everyone at 7 and above should be in the clear. The only other interesting storyline becomes whether or not Killebrew can get the two more votes he probably needs to get to 25% and build up a TENTH round of eligibility.
Good luck, last-day voters!
Edmonds might survive the day. Just needs a couple of votes.
Don’t know that he is going to get elected, but it would be a shame if he were one-and-done.
He’s similar to Minoso, but with 200 more homers as a GG-CF.
Edmonds had exactly 9 seasons of 4+ WAR.
On this ballot, only Appling (11) had more.
I have edmonds above many candidates on these candidates like Killebrew, Alomar, Tiant, Cone, Evans, Brown, Eckersley, Minoso, and definitely Dean. But that doesn’t even make the bar currently. I have him just below Murray and I’m not sure between him and Winfield, and I’d probably vote for Dawson over all of em but whatever. Well out of my top 5.
Murray, Alomar, Eckersley
Edmonds, Ashburn, Reuschel
Appling, Brown, Reuschel.
Appling, Murray, Thome
Thome, Appling, Eckersley
Brown, Cone, Edmonds
Believe Edmonds deserves more deliberation, hope another agrees.
Edmonds, Minoso, Ashburn.