It was a close race between two players who had just joined the holdover list, Luke Appling and Bill Dickey. In the end it was Dickey who prevailed by a single vote, winning induction as the 81st member of the High Heat Stats Circle of Greats. More on Bill and the voting after the jump
Most Career Wins Above Replacement (“WAR”, baseball-reference version) in AL History By a Player Known as “Bill” or “Billy”
1. Bill Dickey 55.8
2. Billy Pierce 48.7
3. Bill Freehan 44.7
4. Bill Donovan 36.5
5. Bill Bradley 35.1
*****************************
76 men have caught at least 750 career games for American League teams. The highest AL career slugging percentages among those seventy-six guys (AL career OPS+ is in parens):
1. Bill Dickey .486 (127)
2. Yogi Berra .483 (125)
3. Mickey Cochrane .478 (129)
4. Victor Martinez .475 (126)
5. Ivan Rodriguez .474 (109)
And among that same group, the most AL career Rbat (aka, WAR Runs Batting):
1. Mickey Cochrane 271.3
2. Bill Dickey 261.8
3. Yogi Berra 229.1
4. Joe Mauer 221.0
5. Jorge Posada 204.5
******************************
Most career Rbat among all catchers (behind the plate in 50% or more of career games played) who had a positive career Rfield (aka, WAR Runs Fielding):
1. Johnny Bench 269.3
2. Bill Dickey 261.8
3. Gabby Hartnett 232.1
4. Yogi Berra 228.2
5. Carlton Fisk 167.8
******************************
Most Career WAR by Left-Handed Hitting Catchers (behind the plate in 50% or more of career games played)
1. Yogi Berra 59.3
2. Bill Dickey 55.8
3. Mickey Cochrane 52.1
4. Joe Mauer 46.3
5. Darrell Porter 40.7
**********************************
Most Career Triples in Games Played as Catcher (Regular Season and Post-Season), 1914-2014:
1. Bill Dickey 73
T2. Wally Schang and Rollie Hemsley 72
4. Ivey Wingo 65
4. Mickey Cochrane 64
**********************************
Notes on this round’s voting:
–Despite the lowest turnout for a regular COG ballot in over a year, and a rather large list of holdovers, Dickey, Appling, Roberto Alomar and Harmon Killebrew all received rather high levels of support. The latter three all earned an extra round of guaranteed eligibility. Alomar earned his extra eligibility round with a late wave of support.
–Also benefiting from some late support was Minnie Minoso. Minoso’s spot on the ballot was saved with a couple of last-hour votes. all the other holdovers also avoided falling below the decisive 10% support level.
–Every vote on every ballot that was cast this round went to a holdover — not a single vote was cast for anyone who was eligible for the first time this round.
–David Cone’s only previous appearance on a regular induction ballot was way, way back in the early days of the COG voting, back in the 1963 birth-year round. Cone appeared on just one ballot back then. This round, however, fresh off his success in last week’s redemption vote, David appeared on seven ballots, enough to earn a return engagement.
–Graig Nettles (with the support of some vocal campaigning from commenter Joseph), Richie Ashburn and Don Drysdale won enough redemption round support to return to the next regular ballot. Ashburn and Drysdale tied for the second-most votes recieved in this latest redemption round, so we’ll throw all three guys into the huge ballot mix in the next round.
–Adding Nettles, Ashburn and Drysdale to the holdover list, and with all the previous holdovers other than Dickey returning, there will be a very large total of 18 holdovers in the upcoming 1970 birth-year round. A similarly daunting nine of those 18 will be “on the bubble”, subject to being dropped from the ballot if they appear on fewer than 10% of ballots in the upcoming round. 12 13 of the 18 holdovers have returned to the ballot via the redemption route at some point. Only Killebrew, Minoso, Campanella, Dean, Ferrell and Appling among the holdovers have never fallen off the ballot. It will be interesting to see if that remains true for those six five with the packed competition coming up.
***********************************
The full spreadsheet showing this round’s vote tally is here: COG 1907 Part 2 Vote Tally.
The vote summary for recent Circle of Greats voting rounds is here: COG Vote Summary 2 . An archive w ith details of the 1968 through 1939 rounds is here: COG 1968-1939 Vote Summary . In both cases, raw vote totals for each past round appear on Sheet 1 and the percentage totals for each past round appear on Sheet 2.
************************************************
A spreadsheet listing the full membership to date of the Circle of Greats, along with some of their stats, is here: Circle of Greats Membership . You can also find that same link any time by clicking on “Circle of Greats” at the top of the High Heats Stats home page.
Another COG data spreadsheet showing each season a COG member played in the majors, along with the team he played for that season and his baseball-reference WAR (overall WAR for everyday players, pitching WAR for pitchers) for the season, is here:
Circle of Greats Seasons
Is this the first regular election (i.e. not a runoff) to be decided by just one vote?
This was the 6th regular election decided by one vote. Previous occurrences:
1956 – Larkin over Molitor
1940.2 – Rose over Santo
1929 – Santo over Banks and Marichal
1922.1 – Martinez over Koufax
1910.2 – Gordon over Boudreau
Craig Biggio – 763
*Roberto Alomar – 684
John Smoltz – 658
*Eddie Murray – 650
Kenny Lofton – 608
Ryne Sandberg – 607
Edgar Martinez – 507
Lou Whitaker – 493
*Harmon Killebrew – 404
Whitey Ford – 382
Bobby Grich – 376
Sandy Koufax – 375
Tony Gwynn – 346
Willie McCovey – 336
*Kevin Brown – 285
Juan Marichal – 268
Tom Glavine – 262
Alan Trammell – 239
Mike Mussina – 233
Curt Schilling – 224
Nolan Ryan – 220
Ron Santo – 217
*Minnie Minoso – 216
Lou Boudreau – 216
Tim Raines – 213
*Roy Campanella – 208
*Dennis Eckersley – 200
Larry Walker – 197
Barry Larkin – 188
Frank Thomas – 181
*Dave Winfield – 178
Paul Molitor – 152
Bob Gibson – 147
Gaylord Perry – 142
Jim Palmer – 133
Al Kaline – 132
*Rick Reuschel – 131
Duke Snider – 130
Joe Gordon – 126
*Luis Tiant – 121
Ernie Banks – 119
Eddie Mathews – 115
Thoughts:
1. The other holdovers: Dizzy Dean (52), Luke Appling (48), Dwight Evans (26), Wes Ferrell (26), David Cone (8).
2. Welcome to the 200-vote club, Dennis Eckersley!
3. Welcome to the 400-vote club, Harmon Killebrew!
4. Biggest news on this front, to my mind, is this: Eddie Murray reaches 650, and is now within striking distance of John Smoltz for the #3 spot of all-time!
Also, with Biggio and Smoltz voted into the real Hall of Fame this week, Kenny Lofton takes over the top spot on your list held by a guy not in the Hall. It’s going to be tough to dislodge Lofton from that spot.
Kevin Brown has a shot of overtaking Lofton, though, no?
Yes, fair point — could take a lot of rounds, though. Certainly neither Brown nor Lofton is going to the Cooperstown Hall without a ticket for a long while.
Just a small note – I was pretty sure from memory, but then checked out the spreadsheet to confirm, that Killebrew did fall off the main ballot (1934) and was re-placed on the ballot in the next redemption round (1928). So that’s 13 of the 18 holdovers that have come back on through redemption.
Wow, very good — I’d forgotten that.
(Plate Appearances per Win Above Average)
I’ve been working with this PaWaa stat for a couple of months now.
Does anyone have a strong opinion on it one way or another?
I like looking at the breakdowns at different Plate Appearance thresholds. This seems like an effective way to compare players with different-lengthed careers.
It would be handy to arrive at a single threshold that it is agreed “okay, that is how long we should expect a Great player’s peak to be – and anything after that is gravy.”
Is that 12 years? 7,000 PA?
Well, some guys are still getting better after 7000 PA. And some players (Roberto Clemente) are regulars at age 20 before they’ve figured it all out.
So, acknowledging the limitations of this, here are a lovingly arranged bunch of numbers…
For the sake of (relative) brevity, I’m posting for the season closest to 7000 PA.
If ya’ll clamor for it, I’ll show Career, 2000, 5000, 8000, 9000, 10000, etc…
_____
PaWaa 7000 for everyone thus far elected to the COG:
97.0 … Ted Williams
105.6 … Mickey Mantle
106.8 … Willie Mays
108.1 … Barry Bonds
117.1 … Stan Musial
117.6 … Mike Schmidt
124.5 … Rickey Henderson
135.2 … Joe DiMaggio
135.3 … Jimmie Foxx
135.4 … Hank Aaron
136.4 … Wade Boggs
139.6 … Joe Morgan
142.4 … Ken Griffey
143.4 … Mel Ott
145.7 … George Brett
147.3 … Jackie Robinson (5804)
150.6 … Eddie Mathews
151.9 … Cal Ripken
153.5 … Arky Vaughan
155.3 … Jeff Bagwell
157.8 … Johnny Mize
157.9 … Frank Robinson
160.0 … Larry Walker
160.8 … Gary Carter
161.3 … Johnny Bench
164.8 … Hank Greenberg (6097)
165.3 … Barry Larkin
166.0 … Lou Boudreau
166.3 … Bobby Grich
168.9 … Carl Yaz
176.2 … Joe Gordon (6537)
177.8 … Al Kaline
179.5 … Reggie Jackson
185.3 … Edgar Martinez
193.2 … Frank Thomas
197.3 … Duke Snider
198.8 … Mike Piazza
199.6 … Kenny Lofton
203.0 … Ron Santo
203.6 … Ernie Banks
208.9 … Alan Trammell
210.1 … Willie McCovey
214.3 … Craig Biggio
217.2 … Carlton Fisk
220.7 … Yogi Berra
223.6 … Bill Dickey
227.8 … Ryne Sandberg
231.5 … Tony Gwynn
233.6 … Tim Raines
244.0 … Brooks Robinson
245.6 … Robin Yount
246.1 … Paul Molitor
254.6 … Pee Wee Reese
255.1 … Ozzie Smith
258.0 … Lou Whitaker
271.5 … Roberto Clemente (started off bad)
302.4 … Pete Rose
_____
Rose, Yaz, and Aaron each have two 7000 PA blocks.
This next stat blows me away about Hank.
302.4 … Pete Rose (1st 6955 PA)
544.4 … Pete Rose (next 7186 PA)
168.9 … Carl Yaz (1st 7296 PA)
999.4 … Carl Yaz (last 6696 PA)
135.4 … Hank Aaron (1st 7216 PA)
171.6 … Hank Aaron (last 6725 PA).
Yeah, I love this stat. I mean, I generally love the esoteric comparison methods that some of us have come up with (mosc’s has also been particularly delightful to read some insight on; and whatever happened to that poster that had that mysterious ‘peak’ method that valued Kenny Lofton above Bob Gibson?) but the PAWAA stat (too cheeky to call it ‘pawaa rankings’?) is insightful for the same reason I like looking at something like WAR/162G – it looks at productivity, aside from things like injury or service time. If I’m a modern advanced-stats nerd and I’m looking at the gulf between Mays and Mantle’s career WAR, I’m not really getting what people in NYC were getting in the 1950s – the ‘holy crap we are watching 2 of the best players ever in the same city in the same position as contemporaries’. Your ranking shows how, for so much of their careers, the difference in productivity was infinitesimal. And it captures, in ways that looking at a b-r page and mentally doing the math to fill in missed years for wartime can’t, how utterly incredible Ted Williams was. Those numbers don’t include 3.5 years from his blazing hot prime, and they still show the best baseball player born after 1907.
Anyway, any stat is part of the story – showing something like the comparison of long careers to put into context Hank’s astonishing longevity and consistency starts to fill in an argument as to why one player might be greater than another. I definitely enjoy seeing the comparison across lengths of career. It would be a long post, but I’d for sure be interested in seeing career numbers for our electees, or after 2000PA, or whatever threshold. Maybe a different threshold with each results post? Might as well – there’s often little enough to talk about in the results thread beyond reading birtelcom’s excellent summaries along with Dr. Doom’s internal vote stats. That’s my 2 cents.
Various career stats for COG inductees are always available here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1NGlNZWvMYUmm7AZZmSye911YT8yOFSfwRSjxX23shk0/edit#gid=0 (hitters on Sheet 1 and pitchers on Sheet 2)
Seasonal WAR numbers for COG inductees are always here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/10NJSXw6rvtr0LEi8X9QQ16ZywLSLqnZkMAwd6XimznE/edit#gid=1688327630
Anyone is free to copy these spreadsheets for their own use and then play around with sorting them, etc.
OK Voomo I’ll clamor for 9000 and 5000; Personally , I’m a consistency sort of guy, preferring consistent performance over a high peak as my personal measure of greatness; but I recognize that others, perhaps the majority prefer the players with the higher peak and perhaps a few seasons of mediocrity. Intuiting that the 5000 list would show some short career guys to good advantage, while the 9000 would show off the long-career greats…
Okay, I’ll take one vote of ‘yea’ as a clamor…
____
PaWaa 2000
A few notes:
I’ve been working backward from the PA leaders to do Everybody in history.
I’m far from finished. So this is NOT the all-time leaders.
This is everybody in the COG, plus a few notables.
And the stats are taken from the season Closest to 2000 PA.
So there are variables.
Player A – 1700 PA, next season 550 PA = 2250
Player B – 1700 PA, next season 650 PA = 2350
So I’m taking Player A’s stats at 2250.
And Player B’s stats at 1700.
This is less significant at the highest thresholds, of course.
And if there were an efficient way to grab WAA exactly at 2000 I would.
So…
PaWaa 2000
74.3 … Babe Ruth
104.5 … Mike Trout
105.9 … Joe Jackson
109.1 … Stan Musial
111.6 … Ted Williams
113.2 … Willie McCovey
113.7 … Willie Mays
116.2 … Rogers Hornsby
127.3 … Kenny Lofton
127.6 … Lou Gehrig
133.4 … Red Ruffing
135.6 … Bobby Grich
136.1 … Cal Ripken
137.0 … Johnny Mize
137.5 … Mike Schmidt
139.5 … Albert Pujols
142.5 … Mike Piazza
143.4 … Wade Boggs
146.5 … Alex Rod
147.5 … Jimmie Foxx
154.4 … Chase Utley
155.5 … Carlton Fisk (7 years)
157.1 … Tristam Speaker
158.7 … Rickey Henderson
159.5 … Frank Thomas
164.0 … Arky Vaughan
164.3 … Mickey Mantle
164.4 … Eddie Mathews
171.3 … Joe DiMaggio
173.7 … Johnny Bench
178.0 … Barry Bonds
178.3 … Edgar Martinez
179.5 … Mel Ott
183.3 … Craig Biggio
186.4 … Willie McCovey
189.1 … Frank Robinson
189.4 … Hank Greenberg
192.0 … Ken Griffey
199.3 … Jackie Robinson
200.5 … Joe Gordon
202.0 … Al Kaline
206.5 … Reggie Jackson
210.9 … Ty Cobb
210.9 … Barry Larkin
214.2 … Ernie Banks
215.1 … Honus Wagner
219.8 … Jeff Bagwell
233.1 … Gary Carter
235.6 … Larry Walker
238.2 … Hank Aaron
239.1 … Tony Gwynn
241.1 … George Brett
249.9 … Lou Boudreau
252.0 … Ryne Sandberg
255.6 … Derek Jeter
258.9 … Joe Morgan
288.7 … Rod Carew
289.4 … Paul Molitor
291.7 … Yogi Berra
292.2 … Tim Raines
300.6 … Lou Whitaker
365.9 … Duke Snider
433.6 … Pee Wee Reese
451.1 … Carl Yaz
508.6 … Alan Trammell
614.8 … Ozzie Smith
1117.2 .. Pete Rose
3368.0 .. Brooks Robinson
Negative. Roberto Clemente
Negative. Ron Santo
Negative. Robin Yount
We have elected exactly half of the all-time WAR leaders for each franchise. Four have come on the ballot but have not been elected:
LAD: Drysdale (on ballot)
CHW: Appling (on ballot)
LAA: Finley (passed over)
TOR: Stieb (passed over)
Which leaves eleven who have not yet come up. The seven who will be voted on in due course will all sail in. The 1971 birth class includes Pudge Rodriguez who I also presume gets in. That leaves three who will not come up soon:
COL: Helton (1973 birth year)
MIA: Hanley Ramirez (For now. Likely to be Stanton soon)
TBR: Longoria
So in a years time, we will have voted on 27 franchise WAR leaders and likely rejected only those from the Blue Jays, Angels and maybe Dodgers. The last one is particularly surprising.
RJ – I would have never guessed that Drysdale is the Dodgers’ career WAR leader. Of course, Reese and Robinson are close to the lead and both lost substantial playing time for non-baseball related problems. Voters likely factored that in when elected those two to the COG. So while Drysdale is the Dodgers’ WAR leader, I’d say he’s more of the nominal leader.
It’s surprising, isn’t it? Interesting how many top Dodgers have had abbreviated careers: Reese and Robinson as you mention, and then Drysdale and Koufax with their shoulder and arm injuries respectively. Campanella had time missed at both ends of his career. Dazzy Vance was a late bloomer. Nap Rucker was done by his age 28 season.
Let’s revisit this in half a decade or so; we might be talking about Kersaw as the new Dodgers WAR leader.
RJ @13: Interesting research, thanks!
The Angels have a guy now whose early career arc suggests, if all goes well, both eventual COG-worthiness and eventual franchise WAR leadership. At age 23, Mike Trout is already on the Angels career WAR top 10 list.
PaWaa 5000
77.6 … Babe Ruth
93.8 … Ted Williams
97.9 … Rogers Hornsby
103.0 … Mickey Mantle
108.5 … Ty Cobb
109.8 … Willie Mays
111.8 … Barry Bonds
116.5 … Stan Musial
116.8 … Albert Pujols
117.6 … Lou Gehrig
118.7 … Tris Speaker
120.8 … Jimmie Foxx
121.1 … Mike Schmidt
121.8 … Wade Boggs
126.1 … Honus Wagner
128.0 … Ken Griffey
128.8 … Alex Rod
129.8 … Chase Utley
130.9 … Joe DiMaggio
133.7 … Johnny Mize
136.4 … Rickey Henderson
138.1 … Arky Vaughan
140.8 … Jackie Robinson
141.0 … George Brett
142.5 … Hank Aaron
143.8 … Joe Jackson
147.1 … Mike Piazza
148.3 … Ernie Banks
148.3 … Jeff Bagwell
148.9 … Eddie Mathews
154.6 … Mel Ott
155.5 … Frank Thomas
157.4 … Bobby Grich
158.4 … Johnny Bench
159.5 … Gary Carter
159.7 … Kenny Lofton
160.5 … Frank Robinson
161.8 … Hank Greenberg
162.8 … Lou Boudreau
164.8 … Reggie Jackson
165.2 … Joe Gordon
168.9 … Carl Yaz
169.4 … Larry Walker
172.7 … Barry Larkin
174.8 … Al Kaline
176.7 … Duke Snider
176.8 … Cal Ripken
178.3 … Edgar Martinez
184.0 … Carlton Fisk
186.4 … Willie McCovey
189.2 … Joe Morgan
195.4 … Tim Raines
196.3 … Rod Carew
197.0 … Ron Santo
210.1 … Willie McCovey
221.7 … Yogi Berra
240.8 … Lou Whitaker
243.0 … Derek Jeter
243.2 … Tony Gwynn
252.7 … Alan Trammell
255.4 … Pee Wee Reese
256.0 … Paul Molitor
262.9 … Robin Yount
266.9 … Craig Biggio
298.5 … Ryne Sandberg
324.0 … Ozzie Smith
333.3 … Brooks Robinson
349.2 … Pete Rose
468.8 … Roberto Clemente
PaWaa 8000
79.1 … Babe Ruth
93.7 … Rogers Hornsby
96.1 … Ted Wiliams
101.5 … Willie Mays
103.9 … Ty Cobb
108.6 … Mickey Mantle
109.2 … Barry Bonds
109.2 … Honus Wagner
115.4 … Lou Gehrig
121.0 … Stan Musial
121.5 … Albert Pujols
123.4 … Mike Schmidt
124.7 … Tris Speaker
128.7 … Rickey Henderson
132.4 … Alex Rod
133.4 … Jimmie Foxx
133.8 … Hank Aaron
141.7 … Joe Morgan
142.5 … Mel Ott
148.3 … Eddie Mathews
155.0 … Wade Boggs
156.3 … George Brett
157.2 … Ken Griffey
161.6 … Cal Ripken
161.9 … Frank Robinson
164.3 … Johnny Bench
164.8 … Jeff Bagwell
166.6 … Larry Walker
175.4 … Barry Larkin
175.9 … Al Kaline
178.4 … Carl Yaz
184.4 … Bobby Grich
187.7 … Reggie Jackson
190.7 … Rod Carew
197.9 … Gary Carter
199.6 … Edgar Martinez
201.9 … Alan Trammell
212.3 … Kenny Lofton
213.0 … Roberto Clemente
213.3 … Ryne Sandberg
216.2 … Ron Santo
219.3 … Duke Snider
219.6 … Frank Thomas
224.1 … Willie McCovey
225.3 … Tim Raines
231.1 … Craig Biggio
232.9 … Lou Whitaker
233.0 … Yogi Berra
240.1 … Ozzie Smith
241.1 … Tony Gwynn
245.5 … Luke Appling
246.6 … Paul Molitor
250.5 … Eddie Murray
251.2 … Pee Wee Reese
251.5 … Brooks Robinson
257.1 … Roberto Alomar
257.2 … Robin Yount
257.6 … Ernie Banks
264.0 … Carlton Fisk
264.8 … Pete Rose
268.7 … Derek Jeter
270.8 … Harmon Killebrew
282.1 … Joe Medwick
314.6 … Dave Winfield
PaWaa 9000
79.4 … Babe Ruth
94.9 … Rogers Hornsby
97.0 … Ted Williams
98.3 … Willie Mays
109.2 … Honus Wagner
110.3 … Ty Cobb
110.7 … Barry Bonds
115.7 … Mickey Mantle
116.4 … Lou Gehrig
123.4 … Tris Speaker
123.9 … Stan Musial
126.1 … Mike Schmidt
128.9 … Alex Rod
131.2 … Hank Aaron
132.0 … Rickey Henderson
134.5 … Albert Pujols
140.6 … Jimmie Foxx
151.5 … Mel Ott
156.0 … Eddie Mathews
157.7 … Wade Boggs
158.0 … Frank Robinson
158.8 … Joe Morgan
170.0 … George Brett
171.5 … Ken Griffey
173.9 … Cal Ripken
173.9 … Al Kaline
179.7 … Jeff Bagwell
187.6 … Carl Yaz
192.6 … Roberto Clemente
195.9 … Rod Carew
207.0 … Reggie Jackson
212.7 … Alan Trammell
214.6 … Barry Larkin
225.6 … Ron Santo
226.6 … Gary Carter
227.4 … Ryne Sandberg
229.1 … Frank Thomas
230.1 … Lou Whitaker
232.5 … Ozzie Smith
241.4 … Roberto Alomar
241.8 … Luke Appling
241.8 … Kenny Lofton
247.8 … Paul Molitor
250.8 … Carlton Fisk
252.2 … Tony Gwynn
252.9 … Brooks Robinson
253.6 … Willie McCovey
255.9 … Tim Raines
263.3 … Robin Yount
266.3 … Pete Rose
268.4 … Eddie Murray
269.2 … Pee Wee Reese
272.8 … Craig Biggio
275.1 … Ernie Banks
293.0 … Harmon Killebrew
294.3 … Derek Jeter
342.4 … Dave Winfield
PaWaa 10,000
82.0 … Babe Ruth
101.6 … Willie Mays
106.0 … Barry Bonds
112.4 … Honus Wagner
112.7 … Ty Cobb
115.7 … Mickey Mantle (9907)
125.5 … Tris Speaker
129.3 … Stan Musial
132.4 … Hank Aaron
136.6 … Alex Rod
137.3 … Mike Schmidt
137.9 … Rickey Henderson
156.5 … Mel Ott
165.3 … Frank Robinson
168.4 … Joe Morgan
169.0 … Wade Boggs
171.4 … Eddie Mathews
174.7 … George Brett
180.2 … Al Kaline
183.8 … Roberto Clemente
187.8 … Cal Ripken
198.2 … Carl Yaz
202.9 … Ken Griffey
213.0 … Rod Carew
234.5 … Lou Whitaker (9967)
239.8 … Ozzie Smith
241.3 … Luke Appling
253.2 … Pete Rose
257.0 … Frank Thomas
257.9 … Robin Yount
261.2 … Brooks Robinson
264.2 … Reggie Jackson
269.1 … Paul Molitor
275.7 … Tony Gwynn
279.5 … Derek Jeter
280.7 … Carlton Fisk (9853)
281.7 … Tim Raines
288.8 … Craig Biggio
294.1 … Eddie Murray
303.9 … Roberto Alomar
329.7 … Ernie Banks
357.3 … Dave Winfield
PaWaa 11,000
99.8 … Barry Bonds
106.0 … Willie Mays
119.7 … Honus Wagner
120.1 … Ty Cobb
128.3 … Tris Speaker
133.2 … Hank Aaron
140.1 … Stan Musial
144.0 … Alex Rod
153.6 … Rickey Henderson
155.3 … Mel Ott
172.9 … Joe Morgan
173.0 … Frank Robinson
193.7 … Al Kaline
202.5 … Cal Ripken
208.5 … Carl Yaz
208.6 … George Brett
234.7 … Ken Griffey
264.7 … Brooks Robinson
267.0 … Pete Rose
278.1 … Paul Molitor
297.0 … Robin Yount
300.9 … Reggie Jackson
317.2 … Craig Biggio
332.0 … Derek Jeter
345.3 … Eddie Murray
402.3 … Dave Winfield
PaWaa 12,000
99.8 … Barry Bonds
108.6 … Willie Mays
122.3 … Ty Cobb
134.7 … Hank Aaron
135.8 … Tris Speaker (11992)
147.7 … Stan Musial
170.0 … Rickey Henderson
217.1 … Cal Ripken
230.3 … Carl Yaz
288.3 … Pete Rose
328.0 … Paul Molitor
331.0 … Robin Yount
368.8 … Craig Biggio
369.4 … Derek Jeter
385.7 … Eddie Murray
454.2 … Dave Winfield
PaWaa 13,000
128.5 … Ty Cobb
137.8 … Hank Aaron
189.0 … Rickey Henderson
251.6 … Carl Yaz
327.5 … Pete Rose
PaWaa 14,000
150.7 … Hank Aaron (13941)
280.4 … Carl Yaz (13992)
391.7 … Pete Rose
PaWaa 15,000
478.3 … Pete Rose
Voomo:
In answer to your question above about how we feel about PaWaa, I guess I’ll admit what I don’t like about it. Let’s say you have two players. Each has a 10,000 PA career. Both play in neutral parks and slash the same.
Player A is an immediate star. Over his first 1000 PAs, he generates 6.0 WAA. He does the same over his next thousand, and the one after that. In fact, he generates 5.0 WAA over every thousand PAs for his first 9000. Of course, as players do, late in his career, he fades and produces no WAA in his last thousand PA. He finishes his career with 45.0 WAA in 10000 PAs. He is an obvious HOF and COG guy.
Player B is virtually identical. He also produces 45.0 WAA in 10000 PAs. He, too is an obvious HOF and COG guy. The only difference is that he retired at the top of his game, but struggled at the beginning of his career. His FINAL 9000 PAs came with 5.0 WAA per 1000 PA; however, his first 1000 PAs were only average, producing no WAA.
Let’s look at their PaWaa:
1000
A: 200
B: 0
2000
A: 200.0
B: 400.0
3000
A: 200.0
B: 300.0
4000
A: 200.0
B: 266.7
5000
A: 200.0
B: 250.0
6000
A: 200.0
B: 240.0
7000
A: 200.0
B: 233.3
8000
A: 200.0
B: 228.6
9000
A: 200.0
B: 225.0
10000
A: 222.22
B: 222.22
As far as I can tell, these two players SHOULD be viewed identically. But because one of them had the audacity to have a different career arc than the other, PaWaa will view the one as superior to the other, simply because he STARTED better. I don’t like that.
Obviously, this example is “too” neat. No one’s careers shake out exactly like that. Nonetheless, I think the point stands. Players who peak younger will be overvalued by PaWaa; players who peak later will be undervalued.
Yes, at the very least the PaWaa for a sliver shorter than their total career aught to be taken from the HIGHEST PaWaa matching that length they achieved in their career. You want to know Pete Rose’s best 5000 plate appearances, not just the first 5000 plate appearances. On a rate basis over 5000 plate appearances, that’s how he should be compared.