17 thoughts on “Arenado Blasts Off”

1. Dr. Doom March 2, 2016 at 4:05 pm

   Some of this definitely falls into the “Let’s make a list” fallacy that Bill James wrote about in “Whatever Happened to the Hall of Fame?” Nonetheless, it’s impressive company Arenado’s keeping, even if he’s clearly the worst of the groups he’s in. Frankly, if he goes on to be a Nick Markakis or a Hal Trosky, he should be happy. I know I would be!

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   1. Doug Post authorMarch 2, 2016 at 4:40 pm

      Can you imagine how many doubles Markakis would have had he playing for the Rockies?

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2. Mark March 2, 2016 at 4:59 pm

   Darnit, my man Andrew McCutchen just misses the last list, with 95 doubles from his debut (at 22) to age 24 — darn the Pirates and their thrifty ways, not calling up prospects till post-Super2 June!

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3. David P March 2, 2016 at 6:40 pm

   Doug: How could you write an article about someone named Nolan and not mention “The Only Nolan”?

   http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/n/nolanth01.shtml

   On a more serious note, I think Nolan’s a perfect example of the divide between the traditional stats types and the advanced stats types.

   A traditional stats person will look at Nolan’s big 2015 season and insist that he made a massive improvement from 2014 (more then doubled his homeruns and RBIs).

   Whereas an advanced stats person will see only moderate improvement from 2014 to 2015. e.g. His OPS+ only went from 115 to 124 and his Rbat only went from 9 to 17 (in a lot more playing time).

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   1. bstar March 2, 2016 at 7:37 pm

      Arenado’s Rbat is low because his career 108 OPS+ overrates him. He’s one of those guys who has good power but draws very few walks. His career wRC+ from Fangraphs is 104 instead of 108. In this sense, he’s the second coming of Dante Bichette – excellent Triple Crown numbers which don’t translate to many batting runs due to park effects and poor plate discipline.

      Also, Fangraphs’ UZR isn’t as big of a fan of Arenado’s defense as B-Ref’s DRS.

      FanGraphs: +32 Rfield, 9.9 career fWAR
      B-Reference: +64 Rfield, 13.6 career bWAR

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      1. Doug March 3, 2016 at 3:08 am

         To your point, Arenado’s 124 OPS+ last year is the second lowest in a 40 HR, 120 RBI season, better only than the 121 mark by Tony Armas in 1984. Among 350 TB seasons, that 124 mark is 3rd worst, after Jimmy Rollins (119 in 2007) and Nomar Garciaparra (123 in 1997).

         But, given that he was just 24 and this was his first season putting all the pieces together (more or less), I’m inclined to cut him some slack and see if he can’t learn to be a bit more selective. Having only 110 strikeouts despite a low walk total is a hopeful sign on the road to a more mature hitting approach. (I say “only” because 61% of 40/120 seasons (58 of 95) since 1996 had more whiffs, with a 119 median; who would have guessed the day would come when the word “only” in front of “110 strikeouts” actually made some sense).

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   2. Lawrence Azrin March 7, 2016 at 4:58 pm

      Agree with bstar; Nolan Arenado seems to resemble Dante Bichette and in particular Vinny Castilla (also a third baseman), as a good-but-not-great player whose Triple Crown stats are quite skewed by playing half his games at Coors Field. Like Castilla and Bichette, he has excellent power and a good to very good BA, which is negated quite a bit by a low walk rate and Coors Field being a pronounced hitters park.

      Look at his 2015 OBA of .323. That’s THREE – TWO – THREE, where the Rockies team had an OBA at Coors of .352. The entire NL OBA was .316. He was 8th in run created with 107, but also 3rd in outs made with 472. All those outs he made drag down the value of the runs he created. You can still be a legitimately great hitter playing half your games at Coors, as Larry Walker and Todd Helton were, but you gotta take a walk.

      If Arenado can get his walk rate to about average while maintaining his other stats, he’ll be a great hitter. Otherwise, he’s just another in a series of decent hitters that Coors Field turns into superficially great hitters.

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      1. Doug Post authorMarch 7, 2016 at 5:45 pm

         100 RC + 450 outs made.

         There were 10 such players last season, just as there have been for 14 of the past 20 years. The only seasons before 1996 were 1962 with 14 players, and 1969, 1982 and 1986, each with 10 players.

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      2. David P March 7, 2016 at 6:43 pm

         “If Arenado can get his walk rate to about average”

         Unfortunately, that seems quite unlikely. I did a quick search, finding 20 players who since 1962 have had between 1300 to 2000 PA’s by age 24 and had a walk/PA less than 5%.

         Of those 20 players, only 5 of them ever had a season of even 50 walks. And none ever had a season of 70 walks!

         Here are the players who managed the 50+ walk seasons:

         Nomar (51, 61)
         Vernon Wells (50, 51, 54)
         Juan Samuel (51, 60)
         Al Oliver (61)
         Warren Cromartie (51, 69)

         So it seems if you have a really low walk rate early in your career, it’s nearly impossible to start drawing them later on.

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         1. Doug Post authorMarch 7, 2016 at 7:05 pm

            Nice add on, David. You can include Robinson Cano among active players who meet the criteria and have since exceeded 50 walks, though still not 70.

            Have to say I’m surprised at that result. Only four (Nomar, Wells, Corey Patterson and Joe Pepitone) of those twenty players had 50 home runs by age 24 (Arenado has 70). Not sure whether a wide berth by pitchers will help him be more selective or not.

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         2. Lawrence Azrin March 7, 2016 at 7:55 pm

            David P – Yeah, that thought occurred to me shortly after I hit send – once you’ve established a low walk rate over your first several full years, it’s unlikely you’ll improve your BB % to even league-average.

            I know it’s well before your cut-off date of 1962, but I though of two all-time great hitters who started out with very low walk percentages in their first full year, but were about league-average over their entire career:

            – TY COBB, 1907: 24 BB in 642 PA// a career .067 ‘isolated’ (BB + HBP) rate vs. a league .068 ‘isolated’ (BB + HBP) rate; essentially the same.

            He had a high of 118 BB in 1915 (pointless conjecture – that’s because he was going for the single-season stolen base record and wanted to get on base as much as possible), otherwise never had more than 85 BB.

            – JOE DIMAGGIO, 1936: 24 BB in 669 PA// a career .073 ‘isolated’ (BB + HBP) rate vs. a league .079 ‘isolated’ (BB + HBP) rate; just below average.

            He had a high of 80 BB in 1950, though his walk rate in his half-season of 1949 was the best of his career.

            Also I thought of Gary Sheffield, who had a slightly below-average league-average walk rate his first 3500 or so PA, till he just exploded in 1996 with 142 walks in 677 PA. I haven’t used the B-R P-I to do this systematically, so there’s probably other little tidbits I haven’t thought of.

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4. Voomo Zanzibar March 2, 2016 at 8:36 pm

   Well, I suppose we have to look at his splits:

   .307 / .344 / .556 / .899
   .254 / .291 / .442 / .733

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   1. bstar March 2, 2016 at 11:54 pm

      …and those slash line stats translate to:

      Arenado home: 110 wRC+
      Arenado road: 97 wRC+

      Those are park-adjusted. Not to open a can of worms, but I think this is sort of why people on both sides of the Larry Walker argument are often talking past one another. One side thinks we’re simply talking about unadjusted home vs. road OPS while the other is saying there’s a big difference in performance even AFTER park-adjusting the stats (OPS+/wRC+). And here’s the real poster child for Coors-inflated stats, Carlos Gonzalez.

      Cargo home: 137 wRC+
      Cargo road: 101 wRC+

      On the road Cargo’s a league-average hitter. At home he’s one of the better hitters in baseball. And this is no small sample — he’s been in the league since 2008.

      Suppose Cargo gets traded to Seattle. Throwing out recent performance and age considerations for a second, no one in their right mind would project Gonzalez to be a 120 wRC+ hitter in Seattle as his career mark suggests.

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   2. Doug Post authorMarch 3, 2016 at 2:41 pm

      Arenado’s career strikeout rate is 12% of PAs at home, and 17% on the road. That result ranks him among the top 20 active players (min. 1500 career PA) with 57.1% of strikeouts on the road. Interestingly, the top 5 on that list are all players who have figured prominently in post-season play in recent years.

      Rk	Player	          Split	G	SO	SOtot	%
      1	Lorenzo Cain      Away	255	236	384	61.5
      2	Pablo Sandoval    Away	503	322	537	60.0
      3	Salvador Perez    Away	279	166	277	59.9
      4	Matt Carpenter    Away	293	255	427	59.7
      5	Yadier Molina     Away	727	308	521	59.1
      

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5. no statistician but March 4, 2016 at 12:58 pm

   Here’s a question:

   Has anyone studied the H/R performance of position players traded from Colorado to other teams to see how well they adjust? Larry Walker, in his brief time with the Cardinals, seems to have adjusted pretty well, given that his career was winding down, but for various reasons one can’t assume that to be characteristic.

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   1. Doug Post authorMarch 4, 2016 at 5:31 pm

      Tulowitzki will be an interesting one to watch in that regard. He certainly didn’t adjust well in his first 40 games away from the Rockies, despite playing in very hitter-friendly park.

      Besides Walker, only 8 players have 2000 PA with Colorado and 2000 PA for other clubs.
      – Vinny Castilla was 106 OPS+ with the Rockies, but 84 in his last season (of his first stint) there in 1999. He had 5 more qualified seasons with OPS+ of 94, 60, 97, 113 and 82. The 113 was back with the Rockies.
      – Dante Bichette was 112 OPS+ in Colorado, including 102 in his final season there. He played two more years with OPS+ of 105 and 104.
      – Matt Holliday had 131 OPS+ with Colorado, 120 in one season with Oakland, and 142 with St. Louis.
      – Neifi Perez was 69 OPS+ in Colorado and 58 everywhere else. His best result after the Rockies was 75 with the Cubs in another hitter-friendly park.
      – Andres Galarraga was 126 OPS+ with Colorado and 123 after leaving the Rockies, including 141 in two seasons in Atlanta.
      – Eric Young was mathematically consistent with 93 OPS+ in Colorado and 92 after leaving the Rockies, including 93 with the Rangers and Dodgers and 94 with Cubs and Brewers, with 1000+ PA for the last three of those clubs
      – Walt Weiss was also remarkably constant with 77 OPS+ for Colorado following 79 in Oakland and 81 in Florida, and preceding 78 in Atlanta
      – Ellis Burks had 116 OPS+ in Boston and Chicago, followed by 128 with the Rockies, and 140 after leaving Colorado

      Conclusion: with the possible exceptions of Castilla and Perez, doesn’t seem time with the Rockies makes it difficult to adjust after leaving Colorado

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6. Joseph March 7, 2016 at 2:01 pm

   “Coors-induced anomaly” is a bit ambiguous. Beer or ballpark? 😉

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