Scanning baseball’s statistical leaderboards for the 2016 season will tell you the players who turned in the best or worst performances last year. But, for some context, I’ve looked at some of those leading players to consider the significance of their accomplishments over a longer period than just last season. For example, you probably weren’t aware that Bryce Harper‘s .243 batting average last year was the lowest by a player leading his league in IBB, breaking the old mark of .249 by White Sox catcher Ed Herrman in 1972.
More on last season’s statistical leaders after the jump.
Mike Trout reached 48.5 WAR for his career, the highest total ever by age 24. Trout also holds the same record for ages 20, 21, 22 and 23 (old record: Ty Cobb age 22-24, Mel Ott age 20-21). Trout’s 5 seasons with 100 runs scored are also a record by age 24, tied with Alex Rodriguez.
David Ortiz‘s 5.1 WAR is the highest mark in the final season of a career (excluding Black Sox players). Ortiz also shattered the record book for any age 40+ season with these marks (showing Ortiz/previous record) in home runs (38/34), doubles (48/33), extra-base hits (87/62) and RBI (127/108). Ortiz led his league in the latter three of those four categories and in SLG and OPS, becoming the oldest league leader for all five.
The Seager brothers combined for 13.0 WAR (6.9 for Kyle, 6.1 for Corey), the most in a season for two brothers, breaking the mark of 12.8 by Joe (9.1) and Vince (3.7) DiMaggio in 1941.
Brian Dozier became just the fourth AL second baseman to record a season with 80 extra-base hits (there are also four NL second baseman who have done this). Even before his career best 42 home runs last season, Dozier established a new career home run record for Senator/Twin second basemen with his first blast of 2016, a month shy of his 29th birthday.
Mookie Betts became the second Red Sox player aged 23 or younger to reach 350 total bases in a season. The surprise is that the first one was Nomar Garciaparra and not Ted Williams, as the Splinter had four seasons that young with 330 total bases.
Jose Altuve and Starlin Castro, both aged 26, surpassed 1000 hits for their careers. The only other expansion era seasons with a pair of players 26 years old or younger who had reached that milestone are 2003 (Edgar Renteria and Andruw Jones), 1982 (Garry Templeton and Robin Yount) and 1966 (Ron Santo and Carl Yastrzemski).
Robinson Cano‘s 7.3 WAR is the most in the expansion era by a second baseman aged 33 or older, but only the 8th highest WAR total since 1901 by second basemen that old. Cano became just the 10th second baseman to reach 60 WAR by age 33; eight of the other nine are in the HOF.
Nolan Arenado followed Chuck Klein to become just the second player aged 25 or younger to record two seasons with 40 home runs, 40 other extra-base hits, and three times as many RBI as home runs. Lou Gehrig (5), Jimmie Foxx (3) and Duke Snider (3) are the only players with more such seasons for their careers.
Josh Donaldson recorded his fourth straight 7 WAR season, joining Mike Schmidt, Wade Boggs and Ron Santo as the only third sackers with that four-peat. Donaldson’s 2015 season with both 120 runs and 120 RBI had been matched as a third baseman only by Alex Rodriguez (2005, 2007) and Lave Cross (1894).
Daniel Murphy‘s .595 SLG is the highest expansion era mark to lead the NL by a player with 25 or fewer home runs. Dave Parker (1975) is the only other expansion era player to lead the NL in SLG in such a season, compared to six such seasons in the AL. For the second time in three years, both league slugging champions failed to score 90 runs (AL champ David Ortiz didn’t reach 80), something that had happened in only two full-length live ball era seasons (in 1968 and 1991) before 2014.
Nelson Cruz became the third player with three 40 home runs seasons aged 33-35, joining Mark McGwire and Babe Ruth. Cruz is also in a leading group of three players with three straight seasons after age 30 with 40 home runs and less than 6 WAR, joining Frank Howard (1968-70) and Andres Galarraga (1996-98).
Joey Votto led the NL in OBP for the 5th time, and recorded a .400 OBP with 90 walks for the 6th time in his career, the latter mark setting a new Reds’ record, one season more than Joe Morgan. Votto also combined 100 runs and 100 walks with fewer than both 30 home runs and 10 stolen bases to become just the fifth player to post three such seasons.
AL home run champ Mark Trumbo posted career highs in Runs, Hits, Home Runs, RBI, SLG and OPS. But he and NL home run champ Chris Carter both slugged under .550 (Carter was under .500), the first pair of home run champs with 40+ dingers to fail to clear that slugging mark. In all, six players in 2016 recorded 40 home runs but failed to slug .550, twice as many as the next highest total of three players, recorded one season earlier in 2015.
Kris Bryant recorded 25 home runs, 30 doubles and 75 walks to become the first player to do so in each of his first two seasons (he’s also the first player to post those totals in his rookie season and the next). Bryant also batted .275 with 150 strikeouts in each of those two seasons, again a first, and halfway to catching Sammy Sosa for the most such seasons in a career (to do so, Bryant will need to outlast Paul Goldschmidt and Mike Trout, who also have two such seasons, as do fellow active players Shin-Soo Choo, Matt Kemp and Nelson Cruz).
Albert Pujols recorded 119 RBI, his best total since turning 30 and the 15th time in 16 years that he’s recorded at least 95 RBI, two seasons more than any other player over that part of a career. Bill James’ Career Projection tool sees Pujols playing three more seasons and reaching 2143 RBI, with only an 18% chance of tacking on the 155 more RBI needed to surpass the 2297 total of all-time leader Hank Aaron. On the immediate horizon, though, is becoming the third player, after Aaron and A-Rod, to reach 600 doubles and 600 homers, as Pujols needs just 9 more dingers to join that group. Pujols is the 6th player to reach 1600 runs and 1600 RBI over his first 16 seasons, and needs just 30 more runs next year to keep pace with the group and maintain that century average over his first 17 seasons. In 2018, 3000 hits could be in his sights (James sees Pujols reaching 3296 hits, with a 97% chance of making 3000, and a 45% chance to crack the top 10 with a total of 3320 or more).
Rick Porcello recorded his eighth qualified season with BB/9 under 3.0. Among expansion era hurlers, only Bert Blyleven has more such seasons by age 27. Porcello’s .846 W-L% was more than double his 2015 mark, becoming the first live ball era pitcher to follow a sub-.400 W-L% season with an .800 W-L% season, both in 20+ decisions (Bobo Newsom is the only live ball era pitcher to go in the other direction, with a 21-5 mark in 1940 and 12-20 in 1941).
Max Scherzer led his league in Strikeouts, Wins and HR allowed, to join Robin Roberts (1954) as the only live ball era pitchers with that trifecta. Scherzer is just the 9th pitcher since 1901 with a .700 W-L% in 100+ decisions aged 26 to 31. Of that group, only Scherzer and Lefty Grove posted a W-L% under .500 in 20+ decisions through age 25.
Jeurys Familia pitched in 75+ games to join Mitch Williams as the only pitchers with three such seasons by age 26. Familia’s 51 saves led the NL, making it 6 years in a row that the NL saves leader recorded a season with more games than IP. For the AL, it’s 10 straight years that the saves leader has failed to average an inning per appearance.
Jake Arrieta won two-thirds of his decisions for the third straight season, during which his 2.42 ERA was second only to Clayton Kershaw‘s 1.89 mark among pitchers with 400 IP for those seasons. That 2.42 ERA is also lowest, by more than a run and a half, of eleven pitchers with 400 IP aged 28-30 after posting an ERA over 5.00 in 400 IP before age 28.
David Price started 35 games, the first pitcher to do so since 2010. As many as 18 pitchers recorded 35 or more starts as recently as 1996, and 12 pitchers recorded 40 or more starts as recently as 1973 (Charlie Hough, at age 39 in 1987, is the last hurler with a 40 start season).
Chris Sale recorded 5 complete games that were not shutouts (and one that was). That’s the highest total since 2012 and ups Sale’s career totals to 14 CGs but only two shutouts. That 7:1 ratio is the highest among 30 active pitchers with 10 career CGs, with David Price (16 CG, 3 SHO) the only other pitcher with a ratio over 4:1.
Josh Tomlin recorded his second qualified season and, as he did in 2011, led the majors in BB/9. In doing so, Tomlin becomes just the fifth expansion era pitcher to post a pair of qualified seasons with BB/9 under 1.2 and SO/BB under 6.0, and the first to do so in his first two qualified seasons.
Noah Syndergaard led the majors with the best HR/9 and FIP results. At age 23, Syndergaard is the youngest pitcher with that accomplishment since the Dodgers’ Bill Singer in 1967 (also aged 23).
Kyle Hendricks led the majors in ERA and ERA+ while posting a SO/BB ratio below 4.00. At age 26, Hendricks is the youngest pitcher with that accomplishment since Toronto’s Jimmy Key in 1987 (also aged 26). In that period, only Roger Clemens (twice) recorded that feat at any age.
Brad Hand, in his first season as a full-time reliever, led the majors with 82 games pitched and joined a group of 98 relievers with ERA under 3.00 and 130 ERA+ in an age 26 season of 75+ IP. Of that group, Hand’s 81 ERA+ through age 25 is second worst among those with 250 IP over that part of their careers. Hand’s career to date is eerily similar to that of John D’Acquisto, the pitcher in that group with the worst ERA+ through age 25. Like Hand, D’Acquisto’s fortunes brightened after moving to San Diego where, again like Hand, D’Acquisto was first used primarily as a reliever.
So what other weird and wonderful nuggets have you uncovered about last season’s play?
Thanks, Doug…a ton of great stuff here. Adding on to some of your notes:
So Trout’s 48.5 WAR is the best ever through a player’s age 24 season. It’s also the third-highest through a player’s age 25 season, even though he still has all of next year to play!
Highest bWAR through Age 25 Season
Ty Cobb 55.8
Mickey Mantle 52.2
Mike Trout 48.5
Rogers Hornsby 46.9
Alex Rodriguez 46.3
Kyle (6.9) and Corey Seager (6.1) are only the second pair of 6-win brothers, joining Gaylord (6.5) and Jim (6.2) Perry in 1969.
The only other 5-WAR brother duos are Dizzy & Daffy Dean (1935), Joe & Dom DiMaggio (1942) and Felipe & Matty Alou (1968).
Daniel Murphy is only the 3rd second baseman since WWII to lead his league in slugging, joining Joe Morgan (1976) and Bobby Grich (1981).
Mark Trumbo had the 97th season in MLB history with 47+ home runs, but his .850 OPS is the lowest by far (2008 Ryan Howard, 48 HR, .881 OPS)
I thought it might be unusual that Pujols is only 175 hits from 3,000 despite having just one 200-hit season (NL-high 212 in 2003). Turns out, 5 of the 30 members of the 3000-Hit Club never had 200 hits in a season:
Rickey Henderson (high 179, 1980)
Eddie Murray (186, 1980)
Cap Anson (187, 1886)
Carl Yastrzemski (191, 1962)
Dave Winfield (193, 1984)
Adrian Beltre will likely reach 3000 before Pujols (only 58 away). He had one season with 200 (200 in 2004).
Michael Pineda (4.82) had the fourth-worst ERA by a league leader in K/9, trailing only Cliff Melton (4.91, 1940), Floyd Bannister (4.87, 1985) and Mark Langston (4.85, 1986).
Rajai Davis was the 7th player to lead his league in steals at age 35+ and the first since Rickey Henderson (1998, 66 at 38). The others are Patsy Donovan (1900, 45 at 35), Eddie Collins twice (1923, 48 at 36; 1924, 42 at 37), Max Carey (1925, 46 at 35) and Lou Brock (1974, 118 at 35). Didn’t realize Brock’s record-breaking season was that late in his career.
A couple of things that I noticed recently:
-Manny Machado stole 0 bases last year, one year after having stolen 20 bases. No idea how to search that in the PI, but I imagine it’s the first time someone has stolen zero bases in a qualified season, a year after stealing 20+. (I did find Albert Belle following up a 17 steal season with a zero steal season).
-Jose Quintana has lost 34 straight decisions in which his team has scored 0-2 runs. (after starting his career 1-1 in such games). Doubt that’s a record but still surprsing for someone as good as Quintana.
I found 2 players who had 20+ SB in a season and 0 in the following year with 100+ PA. Raul Mondesi had 22 SB in 2003 and 0 in 2004 with 147 PA and Anthony Gose with 23 SB in 2015 and 0 in 2016 with 101 PA. I used Fangraphs and an Excel spreadsheet.
Thanks Rchard! So Machado is the biggest drop to 0 SB in a qualified season?
If I’ve done my work correctly it is the biggest drop from 1901 to date (I’m omitting Federal League stats).
A bit more on Quintana and getting 0-2 runs of support.
Kevin Correia went 0-49 in his career when getting 0-2 runs of support and very likely has the longest overall losing streak in such games.
As for Quintana…since 1950, there are 864 pitchers who have made 30+ starts in which their team scored 0-2 runs. Quintana’s .028 winning percentage is the 14th worst among those pitchers.
David P:
This strikes me as peculiar, though I’m not the guy to check it out: In 36 of Quintana’s 92 decisions, the White Sox have supported him with two runs or less. That’s 39.1%, and while it may not be a record, Pedro Ramos, one of the losing-est pitchers with a long career—who played for many dreadful teams and really wasn’t very good—had a 7-77 record in such contests and 277 decisions overall, which puts his two runs or less level of support at 30.3%.
NSB: What I find odd is that Quntana has actually pitched well in these types of games: a 3.24 ERA. Compare that to Joe Hesketh who went 10-21 in those types of games wth a 3.23 ERA.
So similar ERA, similar run support, but very different outcomes.
The Orioles had only 6 players with a least 1 triple. That ties for the fewest such players with the 2003 Yankees, the 1999 Blue Jays and the 1993 Orioles.
I need to get over to Minnesota this year when the Twins are playing the Angels so I can see Trout- as well as Pujols- in person for the first time. No doubt my own preconceptions play a role but there is something special about seeing Mantle or Trammell or Sandberg or Clemens in person that television just doesn’t do justice to.
I wonder if Donaldson will maintain his level of play long enough to become a serious candidate for the HOF. He’d have to perform at about a 6-WAR level average for his age 31 thru 35 seasons and even then would be 10-WAR shy of Soctt Rolen’s total. That said Rolen’s career had a number of peaks & valleys- mostly due to injuries- that spread out his some of his best years and that probably effected the publics perception of him. If Donaldson can put together an 8 or 9 year stretch of uninterrupted excellence even if he tails off fairly quickly after that I would think that might be enough. However Rolen only managed to produce at a 5+ WAR level once after turn age 31 and Chipper Jones, Wade Boggs, Eddie Mathews & George Brett managed to do it only twice. Ron Santo never did. But Mike Schmidt & Adrian Beltre each managed to do it 7 times and Beltre still has a chance to do it yet again so there is that.
I suspect Donaldson’s HOF chances are slim, regardless how he finishes his career. For whatever reason, HOF voters seem to set a really high bar for third basemen, and with a contemporary (Beltre) likely getting in as well as another Beltre contemporary (Chipper), that could well be it for this era.
I agree his chances are probably really slim both for the reason you mentioned plus the fact that he got such a late start to his career. The number of position players to perform that feat (first full MLB season at age 27 and get into the HOF) are Sam Rice and Earl Averill unless you count Negro League stars.
Donaldson has 3102 PAs through age 30. Among recent BBWAA HOF selections, Carlton Fisk has the fewest (3483) PAs through age 30, followed by Piazza (4075). Among non-catchers, the fewest is Stargell (4091) followed by Larkin (4424).
The “Adrian Beltre is not a HOFer” camp is officially deserted? I haven’t been in said camp for many years now but I guess I thought it was still a thing…
Jedd Gyorko and Curtis Granderson each obliterated the record for most HRs in a season with fewer than 60 RBIs. Gyorko and Granderson each had 30 homers with only 59 RBIs in 2016. The previous record for most homers in a sub-60 RBI year had been 27, set by Glenallen Hill in 2000, when he had only 58 RBIs. Hill was followed by Mark Bellhorn in 2002 (27 HRs, 56 RBIs) and Adam (Three True Outcomes and I’m) Dunn with 27 HRs and 57 RBIs in 2003.
Granderson and Gyorko did fall a little short of the record for most homers in a season with a HR total greater than half the hitter’s RBIs total. The leaders in that category:
1. Barry Bonds (2001) 73 HRs, 137 RBIs
T2. Jedd Gyorko and Curtis Granderson (2016) 30 HRs, 59 RBIs
4. Chris Duncan (2006) 22HRs, 43 RBIs
5. Kevin Maas (1990) 21 HRs, 41 RBIs
Granderson is certainly not a chronically low RBI guy. He led the American League in RBIs in 2011.
birtelcom:
When Leon Durham put up 27 HRs and 63 RBIs in 1987, that basically ended his career.
Granderson had 100+ hits (129, actually). Gyorko only had 97.
Most HR, 2016, less than 100 Hits:
Gyorko… 30
Moss… 28
G.Stanton… 27
Grandal… 27
Other notable players on this list:
McGwire (1995)… 39
BaBonds (1999)… 34
MReynolds (2010)… 32
McGwire (2000)… 32
Deer (1992)… 32
JoValentin (2004)… 30
TWilliams (1960)… 29
Adam Eaton led his league with only nine triples, tied for the lowest total in real baseball history (aka I’m not counting the one counter-example from the 1870s).
David Ortiz finished second in MLB with a 162 OPS+. That is the worst figure for a runner-up in 30 years – since Wade Boggs in 1986.
Also, and this one is hard to believe, never before have two MLB players struck out 200 times in the same season – until Chris Davis and Chris Carter pulled it off this year. There have also never been 10 guys with 170+ strikeouts before this year.
Another Trout fact, as if there weren’t enough of those already:
Trout led the AL in WAR for the fifth straight year. The last one to do that on the junior circuit was some fellow named “Mantle.” Here are the only players to lead their league in WAR five straight years:
Trout, 2012-16
Albert Pujols, 2005-10 (6 years)
Willie Mays, 1962-66
Mickey Mantle, 1955-59
Babe Ruth, 1926-1931 (6 years)
Rogers Hornsby, 1917-1922 (6 years)
Honus Wagner, 1900-1909 (10 years!)
I would say he’s in good company.
As a bonus, he also became qualified for Adam Darowski’s Hall of Stats, which is pretty neat.
Trout also joins Barry Bonds (2001-04), Joe Morgan (1972-76), Willie Mays (1962-66), and Babe Ruth (1919-1923, 1926-1930 or 1927-1931) as the only players to lead MLB in WAR four times in a five-year span. Again, I’m not sure if you noticed, but Trout is keeping pretty great company these days!
Not only is he keeping great company, he’s a relative kid keeping great company. He accomplished his feat of sustained excellence in his age 24 season, which was the same age that Ruth began his first assault on the record book and 3 years younger than Morgan, 7 years younger than Mays and 12 years younger than Bonds.
If Trout decided to walk away from baseball and play for the Clippers, I think he’s already had a HOF career. I think most voters would want to see him reach 10 years before they say that but to me it’s already in the bag. Now it’s just a question of how he’ll compare to Mantle and Mays (a decade from now we’ll still say it’s too early to talk about Mays).
Ortiz’s WAR was the highest of his career? At 40?
No, it was actually Ortiz’s 4th highest WAR season (by B-R and FanGraphs) after his age 31, 30 and 29 seasons.
But, his 5.1 WAR (by B-R) is the highest by any player in the final season of his career, excluding Black Sox players.
Yes, I must have just missed it. FWIW, Clemente was 4.8 (B-R) in 102 games.
Doug–Mussina was 5.2 (B-R) in 2008
Good one, Mike.
2016 saw a record ML number of players with 100+ SO and 0 IBB, 26. The old record of 21 was set in 2014 and 2015.
As most HHS followers know, strikeout numbers were crazy this season across the majors. What the late 1990s to early 2000s were for homers, that’s where we are now for Ks. The Dodgers’ pitchers became the first team ever to strike out more than 1,500 hitters in a single season (1,510 in total). Both they and the Nationals’ pitchers broke another previously untouched team-level barrier, striking out hitters at a rate greater than one for every inning pitched in the regular season. Dodgers hurlers struck out opponents at a rate of 9.35 per 9 IP, the Nats’ moundsmen maintained a rate of 9.10. The previous team record had been held by the 2014 Indians at 8.89. For many years, the 1969 Astros pitchers held the team record for most Ks in a season, with 1,220, until that record was broken in the mid-1990s. This season, 25 of the 30 MLB team pitching staffs topped 1,220 Ks. The 1959 Dodgers were the first pitching staff to top 1,000 Ks in a season
For those that don’t want to see Ks, go to an Angels game. Their pitchers and their hitters were both last in the majors in Ks. In fact, they were the only team to strike out less than 1,000 time this year. (their 991 Ks were over 100 less than the second place Giants (1107)).
As recently as 1980 those 991 strikeouts would have led the majors- and the American League by over 100.
The White Sox turned three triple plays; the last time that had happened was in 1979. What is perhaps more interesting is that they were three different kinds. There was a line drive, a groundball, and a baserunning error after a flyball.
The Orioles finished the season with 253 HR, 19 SB and 6 3B. Their differential of 234 between HR and SB is an ML record, breaking the differential of 211 set by the 1961 Yankees.
Their differential of 247 between HR and 3B broke the record set by the 1997 Mariners with 243.
Their 6 3B Is a ML team low and they are the first team to complete a season with no player having more than 1 3B.
The Orioles combined total of 25 SB + 3B breaks the old minimum record of 42 by the 1953 St. Louis Browns. The record high is 450 by the 1911 Giants (from 1901-2016).
Speaking of triples, the A’s have now gone 29 straight seasons with no one reaching double digits in triples (Luis Polonia in 1987 with 10 triples).
That may be a record. I only looked back to 1980 but the longest streak I found was the The Yankees with 28 straight seasons with no reaching double digit triples (1983-2010).
The longest such stretch I found was for the Indians from 1953-1984, a total of 32 seasons. The A’s currently have a stretch of 29 such years. Their last player with more than 10 triples was Luis Polonia in 1987. Next longest is the Yankee streak that David P mentioned in the above comment.
Should read “more than 9 triples”, not “more than 10 triples”.
Thanks Richard!
The Indians had two players reach 9 triples during that stretch, including Miguel Dilone in 1980. Dilone’s season stands out for another reason. It’s the only time since 1940 that a batter’s hit .333 or above with no homeruns in a qualified season.
He didn’t hit .333, but Rod Carew did win a batting title without hitting a home run – hitting .318 to lead the AL in the depths of the “New Deadball Era” – you know, the year where things were so bad, they were forced to permanently change baseball by inventing the DH. (By the way, as odd as it was that the AL was the only league on any level with the DH is about as odd as the fact that the NL is now just about the only league on any level WITHOUT one!)
What caught my eye going through Doug’s list was his comment comparing Betts’s season to Garciaparra and Williams. There’s a reason Williams didn’t reach 350 TB during those great initial seasons, and it’s really the same reason that Trout has yet to record that number — Williams knew how to take a walk from the get go. But of the four, Betts, Nomar, Trout, and Williams, only Williams quickly learned how to avoid strikeouts. Of course, the game was very different and strikeouts were much rarer and walks a little more common, but Williams was really off the scale. (The other three have the added dimensions of speed and defense, though – but maybe if Williams had played in an era that valued the stolen base . . .)
For the three seasons of 1939 to 1941, Bob Feller led the majors in strikeouts each season, with a low of 246 in Williams’ debut year in 1939. How did Thumper fare? Faced Feller 44 times, struck out twice.
Which is strange, in a way. Williams’ K totals for ’39 and ’40 are just middling (64 and 54), not really low, compared to other players in the league. Like DiMaggio, in 1941 his strikeouts went way down (27), but in ’42 he whiffed 51 times. again a middling number. After the war he whiffed less, while others, DiMaggio excepted, tended to strike out more.
So because it’s the holiday season when miracles happen, I’ve naturally been thinking about Ed Herrman and his feat of leading his league in IBB while batting only .249. I didn’t recall him being such a powerhouse that a .249 BA would intimidate pitchers in the way a .243-hitting Bryce Harper would. He wasn’t. His 104 OPS+ that year was his second highest mark, just above his 102 figure coming into the season. Pitchers wouldn’t have anticipated a threatening hitter, and he did not disappoint those modest expectations. Nevertheless, he led IBB runners up Sal Bando, Dick Allen, Ray Fosse, Carlos May and Boog Powell, despite having only 405 PAs.
The reason for Herrman seemed such a terror wasn’t that he was a good hitter, it was that the hitter behind him was so much worse. Herrman batted seventh, and the main number eight hitters on the ChiSox that year had OPS+ numbers in the 50s.
That makes a lot of sense to me. The key thing about an IBB shouldn’t be the hitter’s ability, it’s the differential between his ability and the ability of the guy behind him in the order. So for a PED-fed Barry Bonds, put him anywhere in the lineup and he’s a world better than the next guy, but a #7 hitter may also have a natural advantage, since the #8 hitter (on a pre-DH team) will almost always be the weakest hitter on the squad (pitchers, of course, are more readily pinch-hit for, so an IBB has a less predictable sequel).
On the other hand, Harper’s high IBBs in a mediocre year is misleading. Entering the season after what he did in 2015, Harper was obviously He-Who-Must-Be-Walked, and he started off hot – he didn’t really begin to cool down until the 20th game. After team game 44, by which time he’d collected 13 of his 20 season IBBs, it was becoming evident that Harper’s magic powers had deserted him, and his 7 IBBs in the remaining three-quarters of the season was a little under the rate for Danny Espinosa, who generally batted #8 or #7 for the Nats. So, in fact, once Harper was perceived as a .243-hitting Bryce Harper, he probably wasn’t intimidating pitchers anymore (moreover, his HR level for the period after his IBBs tailed off was very close to 1972-Ed Herrman-level, but he wasn’t getting 1972-Ed Herman respect).
So we can account for Harper’s record BA/IBB gap simply by understanding the IBB were correlated with early-season Harper and the BA with mid- and late-season Harper. And we can understand Herrman as logical for teams with really weak #8 hitters (or #9 for DH teams, I suppose, though I think more managers are using the #9 in a DH line-up as a set-up for #1).
But I’m still puzzled about why this record had been held by Ed Herrman in particular. The gap between Herrman and the #8 hitters wasn’t that great, and while Harper had one IBB per 31.3 PAs, Herrman had one per 21.3 PAs. If you project Herrman’s IBBs for a normal season of about 650 PAs, he’d get 31. Only 13 players ever have had as many as 30 IBBs in a season, and none of them looks anything like Ed Herrman.
So I think that perhaps Harper’s new record is a case where a merely apparent anomaly has eclipsed a true anomaly. If so, I think it should be up to HHS to memorialize the mystery of the old record, which is now surely destined to be forgotten. On the other hand, Doug may be the only person ever to have noticed the old record in the first place.
Nice stuff, epm.
I think your explanation of Harper’s treatment is bang on; doesn’t take long for teams to figure our who’s going well and who isn’t and adjust accordingly, reputations notwithstanding.
The White Sox recorded 20 IBB from the no. 7 hole in 1972, more than one-fifth of the league total of 99. With very weak hitters batting eighth, walking the number 7 hitter with two outs helps you in the current inning (easier last out) and, if you get that no. 8 hitter, also in the next inning with the pitcher’s spot leading off.
Two notes about Ed Herrmann’s 19 intentional walks in 1972:
In 18 of the 19 plate appearances in which he received an IBB, Herrmann started the game and batted seventh, ahead of the shortstop. (The ’72 White Sox shortstops, primarily Rich Morales and Luis Alvarado, slashed a pitiful .205/.252/.274/.526.) Herrmann’s other IBB came in the season finale, when he was passed while pinch-hitting for #6 hitter Buddy Bradford with two outs in the ninth, a runner on third and the Sox trailing by a run. Next batter due up was Dick Allen’s brother Hank (career OPS+ 74), who was pinch-hit for by . . . pitcher Terry Forster (career .397 batting average). It was the first pinch-hitting appearance of Forster’s major-league career. He singled in a run, and the Sox eventually won the game.
Here’s further support for Doug’s “hot hand” theory. The staff that issued the most intentional walks in 1972, the Cleveland Indians, with 93, did not intentionally walk Herrmann in 33 plate appearances. (Incidentally, this was the only season from 1955 to 1989 that an American League team led the majors in IBBs allowed.) It’s not hard to discover why the Indians pitched to Herrmann: at the close of the last Sox-Indians game on July 23, his season slash line was .199/.279/.293/.572, with six IBBs. From July 24 to the end of the 1972 season, though, Herrmann slashed .301/.388/.428/.816 with 6 homers and 21 RBI in 201 plate appearances, and 13 of his 24 walks were intentional. For the season, the White Sox won 15 of the 18 games in which Herrmann received an intentional walk.
Here’s a “sign of the times” record. Robbie Ray and Michael Pineda set the NL and AL records for highest ERA while striking out more than 10 batters a game.
Ray’s 4.90 ERA obliterated Hideo Nomo’s old NL record of 4.25 set in 1997 whereas Pineda’s 4.82 ERA edged out Brandon Morrow’s AL record of 4.72 set in 2011.
BTW, I’m also guessing that Pineda’s 4.82 ERA is the highest ever for someone who led his league in K/9. Don’t have time to look, but maybe someone else does? (for some reason the K/9 leaders don’t show up highlighted in the PI, which means this likely involves a manual search or perhaps using Fangraphs).
For the time period 1901-2016:
American League: In 1985 Floyd Bannister led with K/9 = 8.46 and had an ERA of 4.87. In 1986 Mark Langston led with K/9 = 9.21and had an ERA of 4.85.
National League: In 1940 Cliff Melton led with K/9 = 4.91 and had an ERA of 4.91. He is 1 of 75 qualified pitchers with K/9 = ERA.
Realizing the end of that first sentence should read “more than 10 batters per 9 innings”. And that the record is for a qualified season.
Another sign of the times: the Brewers’ Jonathan Villar became the first player ever to record 50 or more steals and 170 or more strikeouts. He handily eclipsed both marks with 62 SB and 174 K. The previous record for a season with 50+ plus swipes and 150+ whiffs was Juan Samuel, with 72 thefts and 168 punch-outs in 1984.
September 12: The White Sox scored in every inning in which they were allowed to bat (they led after 8 1-2 at home). That is the second time they have done that.
I don’t think the title of your article matches the content lol. Just kidding, mainly because I had some doubts after reading the article.