Dr. Doom here, with my final post about re-voting MVPs. I want to begin by thanking you all for participating in these discussions. It’s been a lot of fun to write the posts and to read what everyone’s opinions are on these issues. If/when I have ideas about stuff in the future, I’ll write and see if I can convince Doug to post more stuff. I’ve been on this discussion board since it was the baseball-reference blog (I’m thinking it was sophomore year of college when I started posting a lot – the 2006-07 school year). I may be younger than a lot of the commenters here, but I stretch back as far as just about anyone in terms of being part of this community, and it’s meant a lot to me as it’s moved from bbref to blogspot and finally here. In all that time, I’ve been part of a lot of great discussions in the comments, but it’s been really, really fun to actually contribute some posts.
All of that aside, now the we’ve reached the end of these posts, it’s time to look back. We began this process in 1960. We’ve featured the National League 7 times, and the American League 6. And this week, the Junior Circuit finally pulls even as we have a rather unusual combination: a lazy (and possibly poor) choice for MVP, coupled with a TON of players having great, but perhaps not outstanding, seasons. This is the type of year I was most looking forward to debating, because there seem to be almost unlimited “right” answers. So let’s hop to it!
The four playoff teams in the AL were separated by only four games. As usual, the Yankees were tops in the league, this time with 97 wins, while the worst finisher among playoff teams was Oakland, at 93-69. The interesting stuff in 2006 happened in the AL Central, though. The AL Central always seems to be the most overlooked division in baseball. I don’t know why this is, but it seems like no one ever wants to talk about all those Midwestern manufacturing towns and their baseball teams. But 2006 was different.
For the fourth time in five years, the division belonged to the Twins, but they sure didn’t have an easy road. In late May, the Twins bottomed out, falling 12.5 back in the division. They were 12 back after 89 games – less than half a year to go, and a LOT of ground to make up. They were still trailing by double-digit games (10.5 back) as late as the morning of August 8th. In less than two months – only 51 games – they came roaring back. At the end of the season, though, both the Twinkies and their rival Tigers faltered. One game back with five to play, the Twins won only two of those final five (one on a walkoff). Alas for Detroit, the Tigers lost ALL FIVE of their final five, allowing the Twins to sneak their way to a division title. Of course, the Tigers got the last laugh by making it to the World Series – which isn’t so bad for a franchise that, a mere three years earlier, had gone 43-119.
Unsurprisingly, the best MVP candidates in 2006 came from that hotly-contested Central Division. We begin with the division winner and the man who won the MVP title: Justin Morneau. Morneau had showed promise as a rookie in 2004 with 19 homers in just 74 games but, given the everyday first base job the next year, he and the Twins regressed, with Morneau slashing only .239/.304/.437 with 22 HR in 141 G, and the Twins sliding to 3rd place after three straight division titles. Then, suddenly, he emerged as a 25-year-old in 2006. In a well-rounded season, Morneau batted .321 (7th), with .375 OBP and a .559 SLG (6th). The raw power numbers were there, too, as he legged out 37 doubles and mashed 34 homers. He scored 97 times, but really made his mark by finishing second in RBI, knocking in 130.
The next Twin we’ll look at is Joe Mauer. Mauer won his first batting title in 2006, the first time ever by an AL catcher. His .429 OBP was third, to which he added .507 SLG to make the AL’s 7th best OPS. Being a catcher, Mauer played only 140 G. Yet still he managed 36 2B and 13 HR to go along with his 86 R and 84 RBI. These are certainly more modest numbers than many other candidates, but keep in mind that Mauer was among the league’s best defenders at baseball’s most demanding everyday defensive position.
Given Mauer’s season, there were serious questions as to whether Morneau was even the best player on his team. No one made a fan look harder at that argument than a re-tread from our last AL post: Johan Santana. In the final year of his three-year run as the best pitcher in baseball, Santana led the league in wins with a 19-6 record (just .002 behind first for best W-L%) and added leading totals in ERA (2.77) and K (245) for a triple crown season (only Justin Verlander in 2011 has had one since in the AL) and second Cy Young award (the first coming in 2004, our previous MVP post). Santana’s 0.997 WHIP was best in the league, almost a baserunner better over 9 innings than Roy Halladay in second place. His 233.2 IP were 10 more than anyone else, and his 5.21 K:BB ratio ranked second, behind only perennial leader Curt Schilling. Essentially, Johan Santana was better than every other pitcher in the American League in 2006, by more or less every measure. Baseball-Reference was publishing a number of advanced stats by 2006, and Johan was leading in all of those, too. Feel free to look them up, if you need to. If there was a category to lead in, you can bet on seeing Johan Santana’s name at or very near the top.
But there were many more candidates in the Central than just those on the Twins. Tiger SS Carlos Guillen was one of the biggest reasons Detroit made the quantum leap from historically bad in 2003 to AL champs just three years later. Although he didn’t make the All-Star team, by the end of the season Guillen couldn’t be ignored. Ninth in average and eighth in OBP, Guillen batted .320/.400/.519, scored 100 and drove in 85, with 41 2B (9th), 19 HR and 20 SB.
Staying in the Central, the Indians were flush with candidates as well. Their MVP vote leader was DH Travis Hafner (get used to DHs – you’re going to see a lot of ’em in this post). Hafner had been a serious MVP candidate in 2004 and 2005, but his position and injury issues limited his vote totals. Same story in 2006, but he kept on hitting, and then some. Hafner’s dominating .308/.439/.659 slash yielded the league’s best OPS and SLG, and 2nd best OBP by mere thousandths of a point. He also posted a triple century in R (100), BB (100, 4th) and RBI (117, 6th) to go with 42 HR (3rd). That he managed all that in only 129 G is both astonishing and disappointing, as one projects what those totals might have looked like had he remained healthy over the full season.
Still, like the Twins, there was this nagging thought: was Hafner even the best player on his own team? If not, it was Grady Sizemore. Sizemore had burst onto the scene the year before, but now, as a 23-year-old, he established himself as an elite Major Leaguer. Playing in all 162 games (160 of them as an outstanding CFer), Sizemore led the league in 2B (53) and R (134). stole 22 bags, and legged out 11 triples (2nd). To that speed game Sizemore added plenty of pop, with 28 HR and 76 RBI, both outstanding totals from the leadoff spot. His .290/.375/.533 would be a fine slash for any young CFer, but were dazzling marks for an outstanding defender who would be recognized the next season with the first of two Gold Glove awards.
Also with two candidates were the Chicago White Sox. Former Indian and future Twin, DH Jim Thome smacked 42 HR (3rd), his fifth 40-HR season in six years. His 108 runs (7th) were the second highest total of his career (not bad for a famously lead-footed 35 year-old slugger), while his 109 RBI was another in a long line of stellar run producing totals; no wonder pitchers gave him a wide berth with 107 walks (3rd), as Thome completed the last of his 8 triple century (R, BB and RBI) seasons, the 5th highest total all-time. With those markers, it’s thus no surprise that Thome’s rate stats were equally as impressive, with .416 OBP (4th), .598 SLG (5th) and 1.014 OPS (4th).
But Thome wasn’t Chicago’s leading vote getter. That honor belonged to Jermaine Dye with a fourth place finish in the MVP balloting. Known as a flashy fielder, the Sox RFer posted the league’s 3rd-best SLG, part of a .315/.385/.622 slash. Dye scored 103 (10th), knocked in 120 (5th), and finished second in the AL with 44 HR. His 1.006 OPS was one of five AL marks over 1.000 and, of the five, Dye was easily the fleetest of foot and best defender.
We finally leave the Central, but do so by focusing next on one of the White Sox all-time greats, Frank Thomas. After 16 years in Chi-Town, Thomas became a free agent for just the second time following the 2005 season, and did what many thought unthinkable: he left Chicago and moved on to Oakland where he helped the A’s to a division title after second place finishes the two previous seasons. After injury limited him to just 108 games over his last two years with the Sox, Thomas had a resurgent season, slashing .270/.381/.545 to finish 8th in RBI (114) and 5th in HR (39), and delivering when it counted with a .344/.379/.869 clip and 10 home runs in 15 games to start the month of September.
We now swap coasts and look at our third DH – the man who finished one spot above Thomas in the MVP voting. David Ortiz, who figured in our 2004 discussion (as he would were we to have a 2016 discussion), had a very… David Ortiz-like year in 2006. His career bests in HR (54) and BB (119) were both league-leading totals, as were his 137 RBI. His 115 R ranked third as did his 1.049 OPS, coming from a .287/.413/.636 slash, good for 6th in OBP and 2nd in SLG. Ortiz was the only 1.000 OPS player who managed 150+ games, giving him perhaps a leg up over Hafner (129), Manny Ramirez (130), Thome (143), and Dye (146).
The last of the 12 (!) candidates I’m looking at this go-round is the MVP runner-up and Yankee Captain, Derek Jeter. Jeter placed second in the league in R (118) and third in H (214), and added 97 RBI from the 2-hole, from 39 doubles and 14 HR. At age 32, he stole a career-high 34 bases (7th), and he nearly won his first batting title, falling .004 short of Mauer, part of a .343/.417/.483 slash (4th in OBP) that was good for .900 OPS, still the best by a shortstop since 1941 in a qualified, full-length season with fewer than 15 home runs.
So, that does it for our posts. In this final re-vote of MVPs past, who are you taking? Is it someone from the NL Central, which seemed to be the BBWAA’s preferred division? Or are you more interested in the coasts? Let’s have some lively discussion and a good vote!
DIRECTIONS: Please list 5-10 players on your MVP ballot (ballots with fewer than 5 candidates will be thrown out). Ballots will be scored as per BBWAA scoring (14-9-8-7-6-5-4-3-2-1). Strategic voting is discouraged, though unenforceable, so please just don’t do it, as the goal here is to (somewhat) mimic the BBWAA process. The post will be live for about a week; please discuss and vote whenever you’d like, but there will be no vote changes, so don’t vote until you’re sure you’re ready!
I want to thank Dr. Doom for writing these well-researched pieces. It was my pleasure to make them available to our HHS community. And, for the rest of you, don’t be shy – if you’ve written something you’d like to share, let me know in a comment and I’ll drop you a line to talk about it.
Since Dr. Doom closed with a mention of Derek Jeter, I’ll use that for a tangent to Thursday’s Yankees-Red Sox tilt with Masahiro Tanaka twirling a 3-hit shutout to best Chris Sale. The game was as crisp as the 53 degree weather, completed in a tidy 2:21, shorter than any 9-inning Yankee-Red Sox contest that Jeter ever played in; the last time these rivals played a quicker game was May 6, 1994 when Jimmy Key went the distance for a 3-1 Yankee win.
A couple of things; let’s keep this open two full weeks. Last day of voting will be Thursday May 11 at 11:59:59, your local time.
I also want to say thanks to Doug. He’s been so kind as to make sure the player links all work, and he proofreads all my posts, AND he’s even added some cool bbref charts and stuff to some of my posts. Doug is the heart of this community, and I appreciate everything he’s done in these posts. This is the last post in this initial series, but I have some ideas for other things in the future, so I’m far from finished with writing here, as long as Doug is willing to post for me.
Thanks for participating in these elections; if there’s enough interest, I’m not horribly opposed to writing more MVP posts, or other awards posts. But this was fun for a while, so thank you to all of you for your participation. It’s been really fun contributing in a new way!
Grady Sizemore was the runaway leader in runs and XBH while playing 160 games in CF.
Should have been the runaway MVP.
In spite of the fact that Sizemore is now known as someone who suffered a lot of injuries, but in his good years, he sure came to the plate a lot. That helps with XBH. Obviously, having good power is the most important thing, but a player like Sizemore in 2006 needs to come up a lot (since his SLG was only 12th in the league).
Number of seasons with 745+ PAs:
5 – Pete Rose
3 – Juan Pierre, Grady Sizemore, and Ichiro Suzuki
2 – Dave Cash, Taylor Douthit, Derek Jeter, Paul Molitor, Omar Moreno, Jose Reyes, Jimmy Rollins
I did not do an exhaustive check, but I believe that the only players with more PAs in a three-year stretch than Grady Sizemore’s 2006-08 (2244) are Ichiro Suzuki’s 2004-06 (2253) and Pete Rose (any three-year stretch from 1972-1977; the most was a whopping 2294 in 1974-76). Dave Cash was awfully close (2238). Omar Moreno’s three-year streak got messed up by the strike in ’81, so an honorable mention to him.
Amazing find.
The pre-expansion (i.e. 154 game season) three year record appears to be:
2218 – Frankie Crosetti (1937-39)
2213 – Frankie Crosetti (1936-38)
2209 – Taylor Douthit (1928-30)
Don’t see anyone else over 2200.
Here’s what I found, data is from Fangraphs. That may account for the discrepancies in Crosetti’s and Douthit’s numbers compared to Doug’s.
End Year ….. PA ….. Player
1976 ….. 2294 ….. Pete Rose
1975 ….. 2287 ….. Pete Rose
2007 ….. 2268 ….. Jimmy Rollins
1977 ….. 2255 ….. Pete Rose
2006 ….. 2253 ….. Ichiro Suzuki
1974 ….. 2252 ….. Pete Rose
2008 ….. 2244 ….. Grady Sizemore
1976 ….. 2238 ….. Dave Cash
2008 ….. 2237 ….. Ichiro Suzuki
1999 ….. 2231 ….. Craig Biggio
2008 ….. 2231 ….. Jose Reyes
2007 ….. 2227 ….. Ichiro Suzuki
2005 ….. 2226 ….. Ichiro Suzuki
1978 ….. 2222 ….. Pete Rose
1939 ….. 2221 ….. Frankie Crosetti
2006 ….. 2219 ….. Michael Young
1938 ….. 2218 ….. Frankie Crosetti
2006 ….. 2217 ….. Juan Pierre
2006 ….. 2215 ….. Jimmy Rollins
2004 ….. 2215 ….. Ichiro Suzuki
2005 ….. 2214 ….. Juan Pierre
1930 ….. 2208 ….. Taylor Douthit
1998 ….. 2205 ….. Craig Biggio
2007 ….. 2205 ….. Grady Sizemore
1977 ….. 2202 ….. Dave Cash
1980 ….. 2202 ….. Pete Rose
2007 ….. 2201 ….. Jose Reyes
Got me thinking about gaudy at-bat totals (not PA).
I always remember seeing listed on his card Juan Samuel’s 701 *at-bats* in 1984 or ’85, but he actually only had 729 PA that year. Willie Wilson had 705 at-bats five years before that but also only 28 walks.
Looking at the top 50 single season at-bat leaders, and due to the obvious fact that a walk is not counted, you don’t see too many pure sluggers on there, but notorious hacker Alfonso Soriano does show up a few times, as does a young A-Rod, shockingly, at #26.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/AB_season.shtml
Jim Thome scored a run in each of the CWS first 17 games? Is this some sort of record to start a season? He had an OPS of 1.4xx or so through the 17 games
Yes, that is the searchable record. Next longest is 14 team games by Frank Thomas in 1994.
Doug,
Thanks for the response. Phillies paid a good portion of Thome’s salary for quite a few years. They should have just asked him to stand on 3b for 7 or 8 innings and then moved him to 1b as a defensive replacement for Howard
Vote:
I’m once again prioritizing premium defensive positions.
1. Grady Sizemore
2. Vernon Wells
3. Joe Mauer
4. Carlos Guillen
5. Gary Mathews
6. Adrian Beltre
7. Chone Figgins
8. Miguel Tejada
9. Carl Crawford
10. Derek Jeter
Some idiosyncratic selections there, none more so than Chone Figgins with -12 Rbat and -10 Rfield, good for -1.2 WAA.
Doom, really nice work. Although I don’t vote in the MVP pieces, I do read them, and you did a very good job.
Thanks, Mike! It has been a lot of work, but they’re really fun to write.
I want to second Mike’s comment, Doom. I’ve also been a passive reader for most of your MVP posts, but only because I haven’t had the time to do a good job voting. These have been really good pieces of work!
2006 was the first year since I was a kid that I dug deep into all the stats, primarily because the MVP votes seemed off to me. There was a lot of debate online about whether big traditional metrics like RBI should influence the vote as much as it (seemingly) did.
Over in the NL, MVP Ryan Howard’s own teammate (Chase Utley) was more “valuable” (by WAR), as were Albert Pujols and Carlos Beltran (my pick for NL MVP). AL MVP Morneau wasn’t even in the top 10 in the AL for WAR.
Anyway, on to the AL Top 10:
1. Grady Sizemore
2. Travis Hafner
3. Derek Jeter
4. Carlos Guillen
5. Joe Mauer
6. Vernon Wells
7. David Ortiz
8. Johan Santana
9. Jim Thome
10. Justin Morneau
#11-25 (not ranked): Adrian Beltre, Jeremy Bonderman, Carl Crawford, Jermaine Dye, Vlad Guerrero, Jason Giambi, Ichiro Suzuki, Paul Konerko, Manny Ramirez, Alex Rodriguez, Curt Schilling, Nick Swisher, Miguel Tejada, Frank Thomas, Chien-Ming Wang
Your post got me thinking about Grady Sizemore further. I remember thinking that Sizemore was just going to be HUGE. I mean, he really did it all. From 2005-2008, he had 24.6 WAR, fourth in MLB (Albert Pujols had 34.7, Chase Utley 31.3, A-Rod 30.1). Immediately after Sizemore was a tie between Mark Teixeira and David Wright. Wright is not quite four months younger than Sizemore (same “seasonal age,” though), and the beginnings of their careers followed a remarkably similar path. Both debuted in 2004, with Wright racking up 26.1 WAR through 2008 to Sizemore’s 25.7. From 2009 on, David Wright has basically doubled his career WAR, and now has 50, and is still in MLB (though I’m not sure he’ll really be adding to his WAR total). Grady Sizemore was worth 1.5 WAR for the rest of his career, which has now ended. Crazy how two paths so similar can diverge so dramtically.
Also the same seasonal age as those two is Joe Mauer, though he’s half a year younger than Wright, being born in mid-April. Mauer also debuted in 2004 at age 21, but was slightly less valuable through 2008, accumulating only 19.5 WAR – but keep in mind, he was a catcher, so he played only 561 G, as opposed to 682 for Sizemore and 708 for Wright. Mauer’s career WAR has done almost EXACTLY the same thing as David Wright’s in the time since, albeit at a more demanding position and with an MVP to show for it. Interesting stuff, when you look into it!
Yes, injuries in professional sports are a bitch.
I believe both David Wright and Scott Rolen were the superior talents when compared with Adrian Beltre but, guess who is going to Cooperstown?
Grady Sizemore? Same thing – a Hall of Fame talent but never recovered from his microfracture surgery but Carlos Beltran did recover and Beltran is probably headed to Cooperstown as well…..not to mention a hundred million dollars richer 🙁
Sizemore”s best comp at age 25 and 26??? Barry Bonds???!!!
Would have never guessed that but their stats are quite similar through age 26, including the exact same OPB and SLG.
To be fair, Beltran racked up 80% of his WAR prior to the surgery – has been decent but not exactly the same since then. Could be due to age, but he had four MVP-caliber years from 2003-2008 (and was in the middle of another in 2009), and then post-surgery he had a couple of All Star level years and then a bunch of hanger-on seasons. He still hit OK, but his baserunning and outfield play was diminished.
One thing that hasn’t changed – his post-seasons have all been great (except for 2016), before and after surgery.
ThickieDon,
“To be fair, Beltran racked up 80% of his WAR prior to the surgery”
Yes, but I would venture a guess that 80% of all WAR is racked up by players younger than Beltran (19-32) when he was injured, no?
Sizemore was a young man when he incurred his injury and wasn’t even a AAA minor leaguer in his contributions after the surgery. Beltran did manage to stay on ML rosters, earn money in free agency, and did manage an OPS in the 120 – 125 range for several seasons despite his advancing years. FCS, he’s 40 years old and still in the major leagues! And, while his baserunning and defense have been mediocre, he still has hit for the most part since the surgery. I would call it an excellent recovery
No doubt – one of my favorite players of all time. The all time greatest post season batter.
Although us Met fans would trade all of his post season homers for just one specific base hit…
hey, I got frozen just watching that pitch on television
Nasty. I wouldn’t have swung either.
Looked like a ball from where I was sitting.
Long walk back to the car that night…
One thing re: Sizemore. He had lots of different injuries in a short period of time so it’s hard to know if there was one particular injury that did him in or if it was the cumulative effect of so many injuries:
“Things started to go awry in 2009, when Sizemore suffered multiple injuries and endured a subpar season that ended in September for elbow and hernia surgeries. After 33 games in 2010, he needed microfracture surgery on his left knee. He returned to the Indians for 74 games in 2011, but injured his right knee and suffered another hernia.
He signed with the Indians again in 2012, but needed back surgery and a second microfracture surgery — this time on his right knee. ”
http://ftw.usatoday.com/2014/03/grady-sizemore-red-sox-opening-day-starter
….and, just when the rest of organized baseball was convinced he could no longer play, the Phillies signed him
Sizemore
Mauer
Jeter
Santana, johan
Hafner
Ortiz
Guillen
Guerrero, vlad
Thome
Ramirez, manny
Special mention to Jason Giambi who had a nice comeback from steroid and authentic/native Japanese sushi poisoning (per Chris Russo: “He looks like Clay Aiken”).
Some of the other votes have been difficult, but this one seems nearly impossible. In a way it is the reverse of the 2000 NL vote, where so many players had outstanding but nearly identical performances. Here the performances all seem pretty lackluster, but for different reasons. On the surface Grady Sizemore does seem to be a reasonable choice as leader of this pack, but in fact he played for a team that finished 78-84 and underperformed by ELEVEN games according to its runs scored/runs allowed ratio. So how really valuable was he?
I’m still working at the other possibles.
Cleveland was 18-26 in one-run games.
They had 23 blown saves.
That’s not the centerfielder’s fault.
Yeah, that bullpen was awful. Starters had a 4.31 ERA, relievers 4.73. Which is obviously the opposite of what you expect. The only reliever with 10+ IP and an ERA under 3.00 was Edward Mujica and that was just barely (2.95 ERA in 18.1 IP).
I’ve never heard of Jermaine Dye’s defense described as anything better than “adequate,” but I guess he was the best defender in the group that included Ortiz, Ramirez, Hafner, and Thome.
This will be tough choice so I will be using my calculations for percentage of baserunners driven in to help me decide. I have mentioned in the past that although sabermetrics ignores RBI I still think it should be considered. For my calculations I do not count PA in which a batter receives a BB with runners on unless the bases are loaded. I have calculated for all batters who received an MVP vote from the writers plus all other batters with 100+ RBI.
In the list ROB is the number of baserunners, RDI is the number of runners driven in, % is the percentage of RDI, HR is seasonal HR and RBI is seasonal RBI. It is sorted by descending %.
ROB …. RDI …. % …. HR …. RBI
308 …. 75 …. 24.35 …. 42 …. 117 …. Travis Hafner
416 …. 96 …. 23.08 …. 34 …. 130 …. Justin Morneau
391 …. 90 …. 23.02 …. 33 …. 123 …. Raul Ibanez
374 …. 83 …. 22.19 …. 33 …. 116 …. Vladimir Guerrero
346 …. 76 …. 21.97 …. 37 …. 113 …. Jason Giambi
410 …. 89 …. 21.71 …. 14 …. 103 …. Michael Young
389 …. 83 …. 21.34 …. 14 …. 97 …. Derek Jeter
335 …. 71 …. 21.19 …. 13 …. 84 …. Joe Mauer
355 …. 75 …. 21.13 …. 39 …. 114 …. Frank Thomas
319 …. 67 …. 21.00 …. 42 …. 109 …. Jim Thome
287 …. 60 …. 20.91 …. 19 …. 79 …. Gary Matthews
383 …. 80 …. 20.89 …. 24 …. 104 …. Magglio Ordonez
409 …. 83 …. 20.29 …. 54 …. 137 …. David Ortiz
334 …. 67 …. 20.06 …. 35 …. 102 …. Manny Ramirez
431 …. 85 …. 19.72 …. 24 …. 109 …. Michael Cuddyer
386 …. 76 …. 19.69 …. 44 …. 120 …. Jermaine Dye
346 …. 66 …. 19.08 …. 19 …. 85 …. Carlos Guillen
412 …. 78 …. 18.93 …. 35 …. 113 …. Paul Konerko
460 …. 86 …. 18.70 …. 35 …. 121 …. Alex Rodriguez
394 …. 73 …. 18.50 …. 34 …. 107 …. Richie Sexson
408 …. 74 …. 18.14 …. 32 …. 106 …. Vernon Wells
430 …. 77 …. 17.90 …. 33 …. 110 …. Mark Teixeira
371 …. 66 …. 17.79 …. 38 …. 104 …. Troy Glaus
334 …. 59 …. 17.66 …. 18 …. 77 …. Carl Crawford
327 …. 56 …. 17.13 …. 24 …. 80 …. Johnny Damon
444 …. 76 …. 17.12 …. 24 …. 100 …. Miguel Tejada
313 …. 53 …. 16.93 …. 9 …. 62 …. Chone Figgins
381 …. 63 …. 16.54 …. 15 …. 78 …. Robinson Cano
316 …. 48 …. 15.19 …. 28 …. 76 …. Grady Sizemore
346 …. 48 …. 13.87 …. 16 …. 64 …. A.J. Pierzynski
299 …. 40 …. 13.38 …. 9 …. 49 …. Ichiro Suzuki
You can see that A-Rod benefitted by having a large number of ROB. And Ichiro’s low RBI total is due to a low number of ROB but also of a low rate of RDI.
Richard, I like your approach very much, but I think you may want to do more to build HRs in as a factor of your % rankings. Not all RDIs are equal (even without considering the game context). An RDI that results from a runner on third with fewer than two outs is far less effortful than, say, an RDI that results from a runner on first. The most effortful RDI is the one that drives in the runner at the plate, that is, a HR. While it is too much to ask that each RDI be assessed according to the specific bases occupied, it is easy to calculate HRs, and it would make sense to add RDI credits beyond the base number for HRs. The simplest way might be to count every PA as a ROB (the “runner” is the batter at the plate) and use the RBI figure, rather than the RDI one.
I recognize that this line of reasoning runs counter to the way many people felt in the past about the use of both HRs and RBIs as important traditional stats: there used to be a standard argument that HRs should be subtracted from RBIs because the traditional use of BA/HR/RBI as the key batting indicators “double-counted” HRs. I think you are more or less doing that with your RDI/ROB ranking.
epm: I liked your suggestion of counting every PA as an ROB, it makes sense to me. Extracting data to enter into my spreadsheet to calculate the RDI/ROB values is a bit of work, if I get the energy I might do it. And as you said running the data taking into account the base-out situation is too much too ask but my intent was to get some sort of general idea of a player’s efficiency in driving in runners.
I took epm’s suggestion above and counted each of a batter’s PA as an “ROB” and calculated the ratio of RBI/ROB. Here’s the list. I forgot to mention that I also ignored all PA in which a player was HBP.
ROB …. RBI …. % …. Player
652 …. 117 …. 17.94 …. Travis Hafner
663 …. 113 …. 17.04 …. Jason Giambi
814 …. 137 …. 16.83 …. David Ortiz
641 …. 102 …. 15.91 …. Manny Ramirez
718 …. 114 …. 15.88 …. Frank Thomas
774 …. 120 …. 15.50 …. Jermaine Dye
855 …. 130 …. 15.20 …. Justin Morneau
733 …. 109 …. 14.87 …. Jim Thome
854 …. 121 …. 14.17 …. Alex Rodriguez
824 …. 113 …. 13.71 …. Paul Konerko
760 …. 104 …. 13.68 …. Troy Glaus
913 …. 123 …. 13.47 …. Raul Ibanez
820 …. 109 …. 13.29 …. Michael Cuddyer
883 …. 116 …. 13.14 …. Vladimir Guerrero
720 …. 93 …. 12.92 …. Nomar Garciaparra
850 …. 107 …. 12.59 …. Richie Sexson
841 …. 104 …. 12.37 …. Magglio Ordonez
904 …. 110 …. 12.17 …. Mark Teixeira
918 …. 106 …. 11.55 …. Vernon Wells
745 …. 84 …. 11.28 …. Joe Mauer
768 …. 85 …. 11.07 …. Carlos Guillen
708 …. 78 …. 11.02 …. Robinson Cano
915 …. 97 …. 10.60 …. Derek Jeter
963 …. 100 …. 10.38 …. Miguel Tejada
1013 …. 103 …. 10.17 …. Michael Young
822 …. 80 …. 9.73 …. Johnny Damon
852 …. 79 …. 9.27 …. Gary Matthews
716 …. 64 …. 8.94 …. A.J. Pierzynski
880 …. 76 …. 8.64 …. Grady Sizemore
834 …. 62 …. 7.43 …. Chone Figgins
928 …. 49 …. 5.28 …. Ichiro Suzuki
I followed epm’s suggestion above and did another analysis counting each batter’s PA as a “runner on base”. I should add that I also ignored PA in which a batter was HBP. I did not bother searching for catcher’s interference PA. Here’s the list.
ROB …. RBI …. % …. Player
652 …. 117 …. 17.94 …. Travis Hafner
663 …. 113 …. 17.04 …. Jason Giambi
814 …. 137 …. 16.83 …. David Ortiz
641 …. 102 …. 15.91 …. Manny Ramirez
718 …. 114 …. 15.88 …. Frank Thomas
774 …. 120 …. 15.50 …. Jermaine Dye
855 …. 130 …. 15.20 …. Justin Morneau
733 …. 109 …. 14.87 …. Jim Thome
854 …. 121 …. 14.17 …. Alex Rodriguez
824 …. 113 …. 13.71 …. Paul Konerko
760 …. 104 …. 13.68 …. Troy Glaus
913 …. 123 …. 13.47 …. Raul Ibanez
820 …. 109 …. 13.29 …. Michael Cuddyer
883 …. 116 …. 13.14 …. Vladimir Guerrero
720 …. 93 …. 12.92 …. Nomar Garciaparra
850 …. 107 …. 12.59 …. Richie Sexson
841 …. 104 …. 12.37 …. Magglio Ordonez
904 …. 110 …. 12.17 …. Mark Teixeira
918 …. 106 …. 11.55 …. Vernon Wells
745 …. 84 …. 11.28 …. Joe Mauer
768 …. 85 …. 11.07 …. Carlos Guillen
708 …. 78 …. 11.02 …. Robinson Cano
915 …. 97 …. 10.60 …. Derek Jeter
963 …. 100 …. 10.38 …. Miguel Tejada
1013 …. 103 …. 10.17 …. Michael Young
822 …. 80 …. 9.73 …. Johnny Damon
852 …. 79 …. 9.27 …. Gary Matthews
716 …. 64 …. 8.94 …. A.J. Pierzynski
880 …. 76 …. 8.64 …. Grady Sizemore
834 …. 62 …. 7.43 …. Chone Figgins
928 …. 49 …. 5.28 …. Ichiro Suzuki
I find it interesting that you consider RBI as a percentage, but not SCORING runs. It would probably be just as informative to see a list of TOB, R, and the latter as a percentage of the former. Getting around the bases and scoring is at least as much of a skill as driving people in. It makes sense to me that if you’re going to look at the one, that you’d look at the other, too.
Here’s the list for percentage of runs scored. TOBwe = times on base including reached on error.
TOBwe R %
244 …. 115 …. 47.13 …. Johnny Damon
287 …. 134 …. 46.69 …. Grady Sizemore
228 …. 105 …. 46.05 …. Troy Glaus
234 …. 102 …. 43.59 …. Michael Cuddyer
244 …. 103 …. 42.21 …. Jermaine Dye
256 …. 108 …. 42.19 …. Jim Thome
271 …. 113 …. 41.70 …. Alex Rodriguez
252 …. 103 …. 40.87 …. Raul Ibanez
286 …. 115 …. 40.21 …. David Ortiz
249 …. 100 …. 40.16 …. Travis Hafner
247 …. 97 …. 39.27 …. Paul Konerko
261 …. 102 …. 39.08 …. Gary Matthews
257 …. 100 …. 38.91 …. Carlos Guillen
304 …. 118 …. 38.82 …. Derek Jeter
252 …. 97 …. 38.49 …. Justin Morneau
232 …. 89 …. 38.36 …. Carl Crawford
289 …. 110 …. 38.06 …. Ichiro Suzuki
243 …. 92 …. 37.86 …. Jason Giambi
247 …. 91 …. 36.84 …. Vernon Wells
274 …. 99 …. 36.13 …. Miguel Tejada
255 …. 92 …. 36.08 …. Vladimir Guerrero
275 …. 99 …. 36.00 …. Mark Teixeira
184 …. 65 …. 35.33 …. A.J. Pierzynski
218 …. 77 …. 35.32 …. Frank Thomas
233 …. 82 …. 35.19 …. Magglio Ordonez
277 …. 93 …. 33.57 …. Michael Young
227 …. 75 …. 33.04 …. Richie Sexson
188 …. 62 …. 32.98 …. Robinson Cano
267 …. 86 …. 32.21 …. Joe Mauer
250 …. 79 …. 31.60 …. Manny Ramirez
Bear in mind that some of those runs scored occurred after a batter had forced out a prior baserunner, i.e. it was not a TOBwe for the batter. Likewise there were occasions when a batter reached base and was forced out by an ensuing batter who later scored. It’s possible to find out, via the PI, how many runners a particular batter forced out but you can’t find out how many times a batter was forced out by another batter.
Richard, I appreciate very much that you were interested in my suggestion and went to the trouble to calculate all these new figures in response to both me and Doom.
I don’t entirely agree with Doom that scoring is at least as much a reflection of skill as driving in runs – I think driving in runs requires more skill, in general. My argument would begin by noting that errors produce Runs but not RBIs and that a walk to get on base, while a reflection of skill, generally demands less skill than a hit (my argument here is that even I – with my small strike zone – might receive an MLB walk, but it’s inconceivable to anyone who knows me that I would ever get a hit off an MLB pitcher), and produces far more Runs than RBIs.
I could go on, but Doom’s larger point is, I think, valid and important: we tend to undervalue the skills that produce Runs (vs. RBIs), unless they are as conspicuous as a Rickey Henderson makes them appear. For this reason, both of Richard’s charts provide new and really useful information about the quality of these batters’ contributions, and it seems to me that the guys who feature high on both lists would be prime MVP candidates among hitters. How to weight the lists if they are combined is a question, since the percentage dimensions aren’t commensurate.
Thanks for the charitable reading of my post, EPM, although you disagree. I will say this much, though: you think driving in requires less skill, but consider this. You could get on base via a walk. What are the chances that you would score, given first base? What percentage of the time would you be picked off, or thrown out between second and third, or between third and home? I would venture to say that you MIGHT get walked, but that your chances of scoring once doing so would be even lower than the chances that the bases happened to be loaded than when said walk occurred in the first place. Additionally, while you pointed out things that aren’t hits that do lead to runs, I would also point out that sac flies are plays which lead to RBI but cannot lead to runs, so the converse exists, as well (though not as prevalently, I’ll gladly admit).
You may be right that RBI are harder than R, but if so, it’s not by much. You’re spot-on on my main point: we need to be sure not JUST to value the skills players bring from the batter’s box, when I’m pretty sure that Grady SIzemore’s legs were AT LEAST as big of an advantage over Travis Hafner’s as Hafner’s bat was over Sizermore’s. Put another way: I’m pretty sure that more than a few of Hafner’s RBI in ’06 came courtesy of Sizemore’s ability to a.) get on base and b.) advance once he got there. Just something I would hope our voters would consider over the course of the next week (and not just in relation to these two particular players).
Doom, You ask: “What are the chances that you would score, given first base?” I could score if there were a HR, assuming no one objected to the game being delayed for a long period to allow me to jog to second, walk to third, and crawl home – walks to the next three batters would be a more efficient way to get me an R. I neglected to point out that I could also have reached first by a HBP, assuming the pitcher threw in the dirt to the left of the plate, which is where I’d be diving as soon as I saw an MLB pitch aimed in my general direction, or by a dropped third strike, assuming that the catcher was doubled up in laughter for long enough.
But NSB’s comment below is really more to the point, even if he was not at his most eloquent. Runs and RBIs occur in complex, organic contexts in terms of player roles and skills, and game situations. Richard’s double-sided approach (double-sided at your urging) is sensitive to that complexity, but one of the reasons I have trouble with your MVP posts, as you know, is that I think value is fundamentally context driven, and Run and RBI totals matter far less than the way they relate to WPA. Rs and RBIs with a 15-2 lead are worth virtually nothing; if the score is 0-0 they’re anywhere from valuable to determinative. The times I did try to participate in MVP rankings, I wound up going through game logs to try to see how candidates performed in close games, blowouts, and other games, to try to analyze how their stats reflected contributions towards wins – too hard without PI access, and even with it, I don’t think my OCD is robust enough to complete the task. (Obviously, this is my problem, not a flaw in your project.)
Those are all fair points, epm. You’re definitely right that “Runs and RBIs occur in complex, organic contexts in terms of player roles and skills, and game situations.”
I just mostly wanted to point out that I think an average American person would probably NOT score, even if they DID get on base, barring a home run (I didn’t mean anything negative about you, personally; I regularly outrun the kids on the track team at the local high school, and I don’t think I’d have any chance of scoring in an MLB game; you have to basically be superhuman to do it, I think). I just think scoring runs is really, really hard. Perhaps RBI are harder, but if so, they should never be considered to the exclusion of the scoring of runs. In 2006, roughly 95% of all runs had an RBI, and that feels about right to me. RBI might be harder to manage, but if so it’s by 5%, not by 200%. Everyone is, of course, entitled to their own opinion on such matters, but that’s where I stand.
But returning to the point of Richard’s post, which asks about success rates of RBI opportunities, I think we have to keep in mind who is BEING driven in. I’m going to keep picking on Travis Hafner and Grady Sizemore, because they’re teammates, which makes the comparisons easier. Many, many, many of Hafner’s RBI opportunities were made easier by having Grady Sizemore, a fast runner, on base. Hafner drove himself in 42 times, but 27 of his RBI came due to Sizemore (far and away the second-most; he drove in Jason Michaels 15 times, which was next). Other than himself on HR, Sizemore was mostly driving in Aaron Boone (of the .314 OBP), a tubby Ronnie Belliard, and Casey Blake. The players you hit behind matter in your RBI opportunities, and cleanup hitters are hitting behind the best guys TO hit behind, as well as the most opportunities. I just think it’s important to keep in mind that appreciating, as you said, the “complex, organic contexts in terms of players roles and skills” that we don’t neglect to mention the guys who are actually crossing the plate for all those RBI.
Also, I want to apologize for my tone. Apparently nsb had a problem with it, so perhaps you did, too. I didn’t mean any offense. In fact, I think you do very generous readings of other people’s posts here. So I’m very sorry if I said anything to offend you; no that none was intended.
Interesting points, Doom. I’d like to think more about the question of how we’d determine the frequency with which above average base running skills make the difference in whether a run scores.It seems to me a key point on this evaluative issue, and I’m not sure stats can tell us. (Does Statcast track base runners? That might provide a database.)
As for your tone, it was well within bounds for me and I didn’t take your comment about my inability to score as a personal one, on target as that would have been. (For the record, I did once outrun a high school kid too; however, I was in high school at the time and he wasn’t on the track team.)
Having mentioned Statcast, I’d like to indulge in a brief, off-topic rant. I saw a broadcast the other day where the commentary on a HR went on and on, comparing the HR height, depth, and bat-speed to other fabled HRs of the “Statcast era,” the announcer maintaining hyperventilation throughout. I felt as though I was watching a Mad Magazine parody (not for the first time). I appreciate what Statcast does, but would anyone be up for a petition to ban announcers from mentioning it until we have at least ten or twenty years of data that can provide perspective for significance and make new “records” something that does not hijack game commentary five days a week?
Totally agree about the Statcast era stuff. How’s about a ten year moritirium? Let’s figure out what’s truly exceptional before we start anointing every home run as the longest, hardest-hit homer in history.
I’m going to take a little exception to the tenor of Dr. Doom’s remarks.
1) While I agree that scoring runs is the goal of the offensive side of baseball, in specific instances players by talent or happenstance tend to either score or drive in runs at a higher rate. Leadoff hitter score runs, or they should. Batters in the three and four spots drive in runs, or they should. Whether or not leadoff hitters drive in many runs and batters three and four score lots of runs—these things are highly dependent on the hitting and getting on base capabilities of the hitters in the 5-9 spots in the order.
2) In 1958 Richie Ashburn, leading off for the Philiies, got on base a league leading 316 times, 29 more than anyone else, led the league in both hits and walks, led in OBP by .440 to .423, stole 30 bases, second in the league by one. He scored only 98 times (fifth in the league) and drove in only 33 runs. In other words, his teammates failed him in massive ways, not only in not driving him in more often—he had only two HRs (but 13 triples)—but in putting men in scoring position in the bottom of the order for him to drive in with all his singles.
3) Contrariwise, In 1962 Harmon Killebrew drove in 126 runs for the Twins with 48 dingers batting mainly cleanup. He scored only 37 more times, despite reaching base at least 205 times more. The Twins that year had a very balanced lineup with the 5-8 batters all driving in from 57-67 runs. What happened? Harmon was immobile on the basepaths.
It’s late and I’m losing the drift of what I want to say, but the gist is, you can only score or drive in runs, except on HRs, if circumstances are right and they’re taken advantage—by teammates in Ashburn’s case, by oneself in Killebrew’s case.
1) Hafner
2) Morneau
3) Ortiz
4) Santana
5) Manny Ramirez
6) Jeter
7) Mauer
8) Thome
9) Giambi
10) Guerrero
Voting for:
1. JSantana
2. GSizemore
3. DOrtiz
4. JMauer
5. CCSabathia
6. DJeter
7. THafner
8. MYoung
9. JLackey
10. CCrawford
Time’s dwindling down, so I’m going to try to sort this out, but I know I’m going to be at odds with everyone else who votes.
1) Derek Jeter. Why? In a season where no player or players seem to stand out, Jeter actually does stand out—for high level consistency. To keep this simple I’m just going to use that much beleaguered stat BA to illustrate.
At home: .354; Away: .334
First half: .345; 2nd: .342
In wins: .350; Losses: .332
RISP: .381; Men on: .366; 2-out RISP: .369
Further, he lead the AL in oWAR, WPA, and times on base for the team with the most wins. He was 2nd in BA and runs scored, 3rd in hits, base-out runs added and wins added, 4th in runs created and OBP. Plus he drove in 97 runs from the second spot in the lineup with only 14 HRs.
2) Frank Thomas. Was a beast in September when the division was on the line.
3) Magglio Ordoñez. Great 2nd half for the pennant winners.
4) Justin Morneau
5) Joe Mauer
6) David Ortiz
7) Travis Haffner
8) Grady Sizemore
That’s it from here.
I had Jeter at #3, behind Sizemore and Hafner.
Definitely one of his better seasons. At the time, the stats community preferred Sizemore, but I remember many on sports radio and the like thinking Jeter should have won over Morneau.
Magglio Ordonez is tied for 15th all-time with 6 career seasons with 316 or more total bases. How’s that for cherry picking?
Had I had a vote in 2006, I was so impressed with Thomas down the stretch that I probably would’ve placed him first. It was a very memorable September.
People probably don’t remember, but the White Sox won the World Series in 2005, without Frank Thomas. He got hurt (Big Hurt? Too soon?) early and played only 34 all year, missing the entire postseason. As the White Sox “elder statesman,” that World Series should’ve been a celebration for him. Instead, after the season, the White Sox decided that if they could win without him, why resign him to a massive deal? His 2006 was one of those really fun “revenge” years that happens when an athlete is forsaken by one club and comes back with a vengeance for another. As someone who always really liked Thomas, that was fun for me, and probably would’ve earned my vote. I can’t believe I didn’t find room for him. Probably deserved a down-ballot spot on my list, but it’s too late now.
Well, I think my vote’s ready today. Before I get to it, let’s get this out of the way: there’s no good “conventional” choice. Morneau was a good hitter on a division winner, but there’s no way he was the best power hitter in baseball. Ortiz didn’t play defense, Sizemore played for a losing team, Hafner didn’t play defense and got hurt, Jeter didn’t have the numbers, and Santana was dazzling, but not an all-time great season. It’s a compromise no matter whom you pick, so I did my best
1. Grady Sizemore – This is an odd year. It’s a great one, too, in its own way. Fabulous defender with power and speed. I really thought Sizemore was going to be one of the greats. This season was one of the big reasons why. He’s clearly got the numbers. The only thing that holds me up is that those numbers occurred in a ludicrously huge number of PAs. The season looks “big” because it is: Sizemore has a 200-AB margin over teammate Hafner. So yeah, Sizemore hit 28 HR to Hafner’s 42, but he played WAY more to get it. Some of that is Hafner’s walks, some is his injury, some is Sizemore’s ability to stay healthy. But in the end, I just don’t know that Sizemore was any better than Ortiz.
2. Johan Santana – This is not an MVP-type season. I have Santana’s season being very similar to Ben Sheets in 2004 or Ted Higuera in 1986 or Cliff Lee in 2011. Those are all very good seasons, but not a single one of them is even a Cy Young season, much less an MVP one. So it’s hard for me to put Santana higher. Yet, if margin at your position is a key factor, there is an argument for Santana. I keep trying to come up with the second-best pitcher of the year in the AL, and no matter whom I pick, the gap between that player and Santana is enormous, something on the order of the difference between a 19-7 record and a 16-8 record. That’s quite a big difference, I think anyone would agree. But still, I just can’t put Santana in the top spot. The main reason I can’t is that I doubt this is one of the 50 greatest pitcher seasons ever; it may be in the top 100, but I wouldn’t bet my life on it. I’m fairly certain it’s in the top 150. But even though “the 100th greatest pitching season ever” doesn’t sound like an MVP, when no one else is even in the top 500 (which would be my guess), that gap is large enough that it makes you see the value in having that one guy. So I see the argument; I just can’t pull the trigger. If Johan had matched his ’04 numbers, I’d have probably picked him. As it is, third is where I’ve got him.
3. Joe Mauer – What a year! Smackin’ the ball, playing great catcher. It’s tough for me to decide between him and Johan, but if I need to pick a Twin, I go Santana.
4. David Ortiz – So in many ways, feel like Papi is the “safe call:” 100+ runs, first in homers, first in RBI, .300 average. It’s your prototypical MVP year. Yes, he was a DH; of the drawbacks of the main candidates, it’s one of the least. If ever Ortiz HAD won an MVP, this would’ve been the year for it, and I still couldn’t give it to him.
5. Alex Rodriguez – It’s hard to see what anyone would have against A-Rod in 2006. Great defensive player with a .914 OPS for the best team in the league. Basically, the biggest complaint against A-Rod is this: it wasn’t quite as good as OTHER A-Rod seasons. But I’m not going to let that prevent me from naming him here.
6. Derek Jeter – A-Rod lite. Better position, a little less defense, a little less hitting. With both A-Rod and Jeter, a possible argument against is that they played for a team on which 7 players received MVP votes, so no one was THAT critical, but I don’t buy it; they were ALL critical. Jeter and A-Rod is a coin flip, but I think I’d take them this way.
7. Travis Hafner – Oh, what could’ve been. Had Hafner played a full season in 2004… or 2005… or 2006, we’re probably talking about “former MVP Travis Hafner.” Alas, he missed 80 games (half a season, basically) in those three seasons. He sure did rake, though. There’s certainly an argument to have him all the way at the top, but the missed time really hurts him in my book.
8. Jermaine Dye – The White Sox went from World Champs to missing the playoffs. That said, they DID win 90 games, and the blame can’t possibly go on the hitters, who were all spectacular. Dye was the better defender than Thome, so that’s enough for me.
9. Jim Thome – Along with Hafner and Ortiz, one of the three members of the 100/100/100 club (R/RBI/BB) in 2006. Thome, unfortunately, came to Chi-town a year too late, after the pitchers faded and the Tigers learned to play ball. This was a Thome-esque year, though, so a down-ballot MVP vote seems like the right thing to do.
10. Vlad Guerrero – Easy to forget about Vlad, but he still had that incredible arm, and he was still rakin’ in 2006. He had the same OPS as Morneau, and is almost down-the-line equal to Morneau in every single statistical category, but played better defense and stole more bases.
HM. Justin Morneau – This was not a bad season. I just think it wasn’t a great MVP choice.
I also think Frank Thomas is an inspired choice. At the time, I remember thinking that he hit so well down the stretch that it should probably be him or Jeter. I was living in Minnesota at the time, and I thought Morneau was the third best Twin. His win still kind of shocks me. And he almost won AGAIN, finishing second to Dustin Pedroia in 2008. Of course, I think he would’ve legitimately won, and deservedly so, in 2010. As it stands, WAR reckons 2010 as Morneau’s best year… in only 81 games (4.7 WAR). Even had he fallen off that pace a bit, he still would’ve lapped the field having that kind of season for a division winner. I also always thought that Morneau may have been on a Hall of Fame trajectory, but that the 2010 injury pretty much ended all hope of that. It’s an interesting career, both better and worse than you might’ve expected it to be.
Last day of voting, everyone! Remember to get them in today if yours like to vote!
1. Derek Jeter
2. Jermaine Dye
3. Grady Sizemore
4. Carlos Guillen
5. Justin Morneau
6. Joe Mauer
7. David Ortiz
8. Vladimir Guerrero
9. Alex Rodriguez
10. Travis Hafner
1. Jeter
2. Morneau
3. Mauer
4. Dye
5. Hafner
6. Sizemore
7. Santana
8. Ortiz
9. Guilllen
10. Suzuki
Final round results, as always with point totals and first-place votes in parentheses:
1. Grady Sizemore, 81 (4)
2. Derek Jeter, 74 (3)
3. Joe Mauer, 61
4. Travis Hafner, 48 (1)
5. Johan Santana, 44 (1)
6. David Ortiz, 44
7. Justin Morneau, 32
8. Carlos Guillen, 27
9. Jermaine Dye, 19
10. Vernon Wells, 14
11. Jim Thome, 9
12. Frank Thomas, 9
13. Vladimir Guerrero, 8
14. Alex Rodriguez, 8
15. Magglio Ordonez, 8
16. Manny Ramirez, 7
17. Gary Mathews, Jr. and CC Sabathia, 6
19. Adrian Beltre, 5
20. Chone Figgins, 4
21. Carl Crawford, 3
22. Miguel Tejada and Michael Young, 3
24. Jason Giambi and John Lackey, 2
26. Ichiro Suzuki, 1
Some weird tie-breaks this time ’round. Jim Thome and Vlad Guerrero were each named on 4 ballots, but were quite low on all four, so didn’t show as well as Vernon Wells (2 ballots) or Jermaine Dye (3). Frank Thomas and Magglio Ordonez were the inverse, making quite good showings despite being named on only one ballot each.
Our consensus ballot this time goes, I believe, to ThickieDon, who had the top-8 all on his ballot, and 9 of the top 10, plus had the winner, AND had 4 of the top 5 in his top 5. Paul E also had the winner and had the top 6 in his top 6, which is very impressive. Scary Tuna had all 9 of the top 9 in his first 9 spots, but gave his final spot to Ichiro.
The only two players named on all nine ballots were the second- and third-place finishers: Derek Jeter and Joe Mauer. Mauer’s finish in third is made all the more impressive by the fact that no one placed him first.
Here’s the updated comparison between our winners and the actual winners:
1960 NL – Willie Mays (Dick Groat 4th)
1962 NL – Willie Mays (Maury Wills 5th)
1963 AL – Bob Allison (Elston Howard 2nd)
1967 NL – Roberto Clemente (Orlando Cepeda 2nd)
1974 NL – Jim Wynn (Steve Garvey 10th)
1981 AL – RIckey Henderson (Rollie Fingers 8th)
1984 AL – Don Mattingly (Willie Hernandez 11th)
1985 AL – Rickey Henderson (Don Mattingly 3rd)
1986 NL – Mike Scott (Mike Schmidt 2nd)
1997 NL – Larry Walker
1998 AL – Albert Belle (Juan Gonzalez 9th)
2000 NL – Todd Helton (Jeff Kent 3rd)
2004 AL – Vladimir Guerrero
2006 AL – Grady Sizemore (Justin Morneau 7th)
Thanks again, everyone, for all your discussion and votes! These were really fun to write, and perhaps I’ll write a few more someday. I have some other ideas for posts down the line, and when I get around to them, I’ll send them to Doug. Thanks for reading!
Doom,
Thank you for your hard work and contributions on this project.
It was a great concept and lots of fun
I’m amazed. I thought no one else would pick Jeter for the top spot. Equally amazed that I’m the only one who placed Frank Thomas and Magglio Ordoñez on a ballot.
i should have placed Thomas and Morneau on my ballot……….not feeling the Ordonez thing
I regret leaving Thomas off, too. It’s a tough call. But I sure do remember him raking in September. I agree with Paul about Ordonez, though.
Paul E and others:
In my notes I confused the stats of Ordoñez with those of Guillen. So, yeah, I don’t feel the thing either. If I’d got it right, though, Guillen would have placed higher than Morneau in the final balloting. Mea culpa.
At the time, the debate in traditional sports media was Jeter vs. Morneau (though in the stat community Sizemore was the overwhelming favorite, with Jeter a distant 2nd).
Great job, Doom. The posts were engagingly detailed and well written, and the project well conceived. Although I didn’t feel I could contribute much, I enjoyed and learned a lot from the posts and discussion. You’ve strengthened the site.
Agreed. I never seemed to leave myself enough time to contribute much – just getting my vote in under the wire on a few occasions. But I really enjoyed the introductions to each year’s re-vote, and the discussions they generated. Thanks a lot for the work you put into this project, Dr. Doom.