16 thoughts on “This is why it’s so much harder managing pitchers in the NL”

1. Max February 2, 2012 at 3:44 pm

   I have my fingers crossed that Ike Davis is healthy, because with all the bitching and moaning for how terrible the Mets are/are going to be, he looked like an absolute beast in the making the last couple years. If he is healthy, he will almost be worth watching the games for. Almost. (and much like his original injury, I am sure the Mets will find away to screw it up, like trading him for John Lackey or something.)

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2. Ed February 2, 2012 at 3:50 pm

   I know Bill James would definitely disagree with you. He wrote about this (I think) in one of his abstracts. He found that in the NL, taking out a pitcher is basically an easy/automatic decision based on what’s going on when they come to bat. In the AL, on the other hand, the manager actually has to pay attention to how the pitcher is throwing, see if they struggling, fatigued, etc.

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   1. Andy Post authorFebruary 2, 2012 at 3:52 pm

      Ed, I titled my post poorly. What I really meant was–“This is why pitching in the NL is so strongly affected by what his team’s offense is doing” or something like that. It’s not that managers don’t know what to do–it’s that pitchers come out of games for reasons other than how they are pitching (which is pretty obvious…)

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      1. Ed February 2, 2012 at 4:23 pm

         Gotcha. Thanks for the clarification. I think this is one of the reasons I prefer the AL…pitchers actually get to pitch and don’t get pulled from the game due to something that has nothing to do with their pitching.

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   2. vivaeljason February 2, 2012 at 7:22 pm

      If I recall right, Jim Leyland has said it’s significantly easier to manage substitution in the NL due to the automatic nature of subbing the pitcher.

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      1. Ed February 2, 2012 at 11:14 pm

         Yep. He said it was more difficult in the AL, but more fun in the NL.

         http://www.mlive.com/tigers/index.ssf/2011/05/detroit_tigers_manager_jim_ley_12.html

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3. kds February 2, 2012 at 4:50 pm

   Andy, it has been argued, especially by Mitchel Lichtman, (MGL at insidethebook blog), that managers routinely get this wrong by leaving in the starter too long. Not only is there the obvious gain at bat, but there is frequently a gain in removing the starter, as a reliever is likely to be as good, or close to it. Obviously other things matter, how much has the bullpen been used recently, who is coming up for the other team, (can a platoon advantage be leveraged). Generally a starter the 3rd or 4th time through the order is not better than a reliever.

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4. Doug February 2, 2012 at 5:55 pm

   Jay Bruce’s inclusion here is interesting – only guy on the list (albeit the last guy on the list) who had a full season with 600+ PAs. Don’t know whether his nice counting stats are because he got a lot of important ABs, or because he came through in those opportunities. I’m guessing more the former, based on his Situational Wins Added, which at 0.7 is way behind the leaders (Jose Bautista, followed by the usual suspects) who are above 6.

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5. Steven February 2, 2012 at 10:14 pm

   The DH “experiment” should have ended when the last of the original set of injury-hobbled sluggers (Cepeda, Carty, Tommy Davis, Horton,) retired. Two separate sets of rules for the same sport is silly. Unfortunately, since inter-league play isn’t going away, I think universal use of the DH is going to happen soon. Thanks a lot Bud.

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6. Thomas February 2, 2012 at 10:20 pm

   Am I the only one who thinks Juan Castro probably wouldn’t be in the top 10 hitters if you ranked the 20 players in the first list given?

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   1. CursedClevelander February 2, 2012 at 11:04 pm

      I think it would be a very close call.

      Juan Castro – career 55 OPS+

      CC Sabathia – career 64 OPS+

      Somehow, Juan Castro conned teams into giving him almost 3,000 PAs even though he has a career -2.8 dWAR and a bat worthy of Ray Oyler.

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      1. Kahuna Tuna February 3, 2012 at 9:01 am

         According to a little-known MLB rule, there has to be at least one player from Los Mochis, Mexico in the majors each year. Teddy Higuera kept MLB in compliance until 1994, when his career ended abruptly due to arm trouble. We’ve been stuck with Castro ever since.

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         1. Luis Gomez February 3, 2012 at 1:01 pm

            You’re right, and don’t forget about Dennys Reyes, he is from Higuera de Zaragoza, a small town just outside los Mochis but it belongs to the los Mochis County.

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7. Kahuna Tuna February 3, 2012 at 12:48 am

   Outfielder and 2007 draftee Adron Chambers (#6 on Andy’s first list) is the first 38th-round pick to make the majors since Cubs pitcher and 2002 draftee Randy Wells . . . who was drafted as a catcher.

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8. DaveR February 3, 2012 at 12:53 am

   Wow! Jorge Cantu. What happened?

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   1. Kahuna Tuna February 3, 2012 at 1:15 am

      Cantú’s #1 comp is Garrett Atkins. Same question. (At least Cantú is still playing professionally.)

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