In light of recent discussions of Roy Halladay, here are the best 4-year bWAR totals by pitchers in the past 30 years. The top 15 marks all belong to Clemens, Maddux, Johnson or Pedro (with an even spacing among the top 12); you’ll find Halladay’s 27.7 WAR at #18:
[table id=30 /]
It’s been mentioned that Halladay has 4 straight years with ERA+ of 150 or better. Putting it in WAR terms, he has 4 straight years of 6+ WAR; only 4 other pitchers have done that since 1982:
[table id=31 /]
Maddux had 7 straight years at the 6-WAR level; no one else in this span had more than 4 straight.
Finally, here are the pitchers with the most 5-WAR seasons since 1982:
(Note the threshold change from the prior table – this is 5-WAR seasons)
[table id=32 /]
John, even before reading you may have the date on the title of the article wrong. Shouldn’t it be 1982-2011? You have 2001.
Great post, JA. I suppose this is why Maddux/Johnson/Pedro (and Clemens, for many) are considered such slam-dunk-all-time-great players. They have the best careers and peaks of all their contemporaries. It still remains to be seen, I think, how the next 3-ish years of Halladay’s career play out. They’ll mean a whole lot to the narrative.
Really fascinating. I wonder if steroids usage, the greater realization of the value of walks, and higher home run rates haven’t accentuated the differences between the run of the mill or even good pitcher and the absolute elite. Batters may be (artificially) bigger and stronger, but you still have to make contact. BTW, Koufax’s last four years totaled 37.6 WAR (a very hard number to wrap your head around)
I think it’s possible that being a great pitcher in a high-offensive period allows for greater separation from the pack.
My gut agrees, but the historical record is mixed.
In modern history, there have been 32 pitcher-seasons with a 200+ ERA+ in at least 162 IP. Ten of them occurred in the 12 years 1994-2005. On the other hand, 15 occurred from 1901-19, while just 2 came from 1920-39.
Yup. A couple years ago I set out to prove what I thought was a certainty, something which supported my belief that high-offensive periods allow great pitchers to separate from the pack.
The data from the 90s/00s and the 1960s/early 70s seemed to support the idea. Then I ran into the dead ball era vs. the high offense 1920s and 30s and the idea fell apart.
Like you, my guy agrees; the data does not. Perhaps there’s just something about the dead ball era that throws all the data off, but I can’t figure out what it might be.
MikeD – It’s possible that the very high proportion of unearned runs in the dead-ball era contributes to a greater spread in ERA+.
Ny *gut* agrees, although my guy might be a funnier response.
@19, John A-wouldn’t you expect the unearned runs to be proportional, as bad fielding would affect everyone?
Mike L @21 — The more unearned runs there are, the more variation there will be in the individual pitcher totals.
In 1911, 26% of all MLB runs were unearned. Among the 69 qualifying pitchers, the UER% ranged from 45% (Smokey Joe Wood) to 7% (Nap Rucker). Wood’s ERA was 2.02, for a 162 ERA+; Rucker had a 2.71 ERA and 123 ERA+. But Rucker was the better pitcher, allowing 2.91 runs per 9 IP to 3.69 for Wood, and earning 6.1 WAR per 250 IP to Wood’s 4.3 WAR per 250 IP.
There were 11 guys at 33% UER or higher, and 11 at 19% or lower.
Compare that to 2011, when just 8.4% of all runs were unearned, and the range among qualifiers was 23% (J.Garcia) to 1.5% (Hamels).
Not to beat a dead horse, but I’ll always consider Kevin Brown’s career to be as good or better than Curt Schilling’s. (Curtis Montague does have the postseason performance, but as a Yankee fan I’m conveniently disregarding that.)
It’s a shame the steroid taint (well, one mention in that paragon of propriety George Mitchell’s report) and a “surly to the press” demeanor dropped him from BBWAA Hall of Fame consideration so quickly, so now he doesn’t even have the “re-evaluation” period that Bagwell has been consigned to. As long as Schilling doesn’t coast in next ballot. . . .
Phil @4: “Not to beat a dead horse….”??? But aren’t we talking about baseball? 🙂
That’s true: with apologies to (a presumably sarcastic) Noel Coward, perhaps our motto should be along the lines of — “baseball’s dead horses should be beaten regularly, like gongs!”
And since I have the list: here are the number of five-year bWAR titles. We used five years for the Dynastic Succession, and I use five-year intervals for my own studies, so it’s readily available. Brown, but no Schilling!
Pitcher 5-yr WAR HoF
Lefty Grove 9 BW
Cy Young 8 BW
Walter Johnson 7 BW
Hal Newhouser 6 VC
Roger Clemens 6
Bob Gibson 5 BW
Christy Mathewson 5 BW
Robin Roberts 5 BW
Dazzy Vance 4 BW
Don Drysdale 4 BW
Greg Maddux 4 BW
Kid Nichols 4 VC
Phil Niekro 4 BW
Tommy Bond 4
Warren Spahn 4 BW
Bob Feller 3 BW
Dave Stieb 3
Hoss Radbourn 3 VC
Johan Santana 3
John Clarkson 3 VC
Pedro Martinez 3 BW
Randy Johnson 3 BW
Roy Halladay 3
Sandy Koufax 3 BW
Tom Seaver 3 BW
Carl Hubbell 2 BW
Dwight Gooden 2
Gaylord Perry 2 BW
Jim Devlin 2
Jim McCormick 2
Pete Alexander 2 BW
Silver King 2
Stan Coveleski 2 VC
Steve Carlton 2 BW
Tim Keefe 2 VC
Ed Walsh 1 VC
Johnny Antonelli 1
Juan Marichal 1
Kevin Brown 1
Mort Cooper 1
Red Faber 1 VC
Rube Waddell 1 VC
Urban Shocker 1
I stayed up too late watching March Madness: there are no Marichal or Devlin 5-year titles. Correct list:
Pitcher 5-yr WAR HoF
Lefty Grove 9 BW
Cy Young 8 BW
Walter Johnson 7 BW
Hal Newhouser 6 VC
Roger Clemens 6
Bob Gibson 5 BW
Christy Mathewson 5 BW
Robin Roberts 5 BW
Dazzy Vance 4 BW
Don Drysdale 4 BW
Greg Maddux 4 BW
Kid Nichols 4 VC
Phil Niekro 4 BW
Warren Spahn 4 BW
Bob Feller 3 BW
Dave Stieb 3
Hoss Radbourn 3 VC
Johan Santana 3
John Clarkson 3 VC
Pedro Martinez 3 BW
Randy Johnson 3 BW
Roy Halladay 3
Sandy Koufax 3 BW
Tom Seaver 3 BW
Carl Hubbell 2 BW
Dwight Gooden 2
Gaylord Perry 2 BW
Jim McCormick 2
Pete Alexander 2 BW
Silver King 2
Stan Coveleski 2 VC
Steve Carlton 2 BW
Tim Keefe 2 VC
Tommy Bond 2
Ed Walsh 1 VC
Johnny Antonelli 1
Kevin Brown 1
Mort Cooper 1
Red Faber 1 VC
Rube Waddell 1 VC
Urban Shocker 1
Phil M
Schilling did incur a couple of surgeries to break up whatever roll he was on (unlike, say, Palmer & Jenkins). But, yeah, Kevin Brown “gettsa no respecta” despite his mirror of Schilling’s numbers. Schilling is a lot easier to take in retirement, that’s for sure
Paul E — You must have meant your retirement(?). I’ve heard Schilling during his retirement, and he still seems like a self-serving gasbag.
(I’d still put him in the HOF, but only in a year when he could have the podium all to himself.)
J A:
Years ago, in the midst of some labor negotiations, Schilling was blowing off about what was right and wrong about the situation and offering possible solutions when one of his former teammates in Philadelphia mentioned something to the effect, “when he was here he wanted to be the general manager, now he wants to be commissioner”
Interesting you should mention that, John A. I’ve heard that the Hall of Fame committee is concerned about the costs of retrofitting the ventilation system if Schilling gets in. One approach would be simply to build an entirely new wing, dedicated solely to the great man’s accomplishments. The thought is that mingling with lesser mortals (like Grove, Johnson, Feller, Koufax, etc.) wouldn’t do him justice. As an added bonus, excess heat in the winter might be drawn off to power a foundling children’s hospital, where, during the holiday season, cherubic faces would sing carols dedicated to him.
Funny stuff, guys. “Self-serving gasbag” was exquisite.
Silver King. A player I once knew but had forgotten. I wonder if that 580-inning season led to his demise at 24. Didn’t they know anything about innings and pitch counts back then?!
Phil, is ‘Dynastic Succession’ an actual tool you are talking about that anyone can use? If so, where, or was that just a generic term to describe what you were doing?
“Dynastic Succession” was an earlier thread (March 10), and I had weighed in with a list of the five-year run differential leaders, starting with the 1901-1905 Pirates through the 2007-2011 Yankees. It has a nice ring to it, coined by Birtelcom as his headline.
Oh, that’s right, now I recall. I remember your tableaus as well. Thanx Phil.
Halladay now has 6 years of 6+ WAR, tying him with 7 HOFers for 15th most all-time. Everyone above him is either in the HOF, will get in on their first ballot (Johnson, Maddux), or will get in once the BBWAA stop trying to deny the Steroid Era counted (Clemens).
I do think Doc is HOF-bound, but let me play devil’s advocate to the point you just offered:
– There are 6 pitchers with exactly 6 seasons of 6+ WAR. Halladay’s high of 7.5 WAR is the lowest of this group.
– Over 2/3 of all modern HOF starting pitchers had at least one season of 8+ WAR.
– 8-WAR seasons by pending HOFers: 3 each by Johnson, Pedro & Clemens; 2 by Maddux.
– 6 other pitchers have had an 8-WAR season in the past 20 years: Verlander, Greinke, K.Brown, Hentgen, Rijo, Langston, Appier.
Currently, the highest career WAR with no 8-WAR seasons is 76.3 by Eddie Plank; just two others are over 70, Mussina (74.8) and Sutton (70.8).
Halladay (61.8 WAR) could be the first to reach 80 WAR without an 8-WAR season.
Well, of course, 8 WAR is a purely arbitrary figure. Let’s look at, say, seasons with a WAR over 6.5 or better. Halladay, at age 34, stands tied for 7th all-time among pitchers:
most seasons with 6.5+ WAR:
1. Roger Clemens 10
1. Christy Mathewson 10
3. Lefty Grove 9
3. Walter Johnson 9
5. Randy Johnson 7
5. Pete Alexander 7
7. Roy Halladay 6
7. Tom Seaver 6
7. Phil Niekro 6
Looks like a historically elite group, without question. The only way Roy Halladay could possibly miss the Hall of Fame at this point would be for him to all of a sudden begin to pitch at a below-league-average level, and continue that for several seasons. This seems almost nonsensical at this point.If he suddenly got injured and had to end his career next year, he would easily get in on his career accomplishments to date plus a new sympathy vote boost which he doesn’t need. Far more likely than the first two scenarios are that he will conntinue to be considered the best pitcher in baseball for at minimum another year, unless Justin Verlander repeats his 2011; Justin would merit some votes on that point if so. He will eventually succumb to Father Time, but it’s likely to be a little later than sooner as he’s obviously still in his peak.
I think he’d make it even if he’s just an average pitcher for the next 5 years, say 60-60 with an ERA+ of 100. Hard to overlook 2 Cy Youngs, 2 2nd place finishes, and a third.
Agreed, and how likely is that? Pretty non-existent. Pitching a perfect game and a no-hitter in the playoffs is but icing on the cake.
Indeed, 8 WAR is an arbitrary figure — exactly as arbitrary as the 6-WAR level Jeff cited, or your figure of 6.5.
As I said, I was playing devil’s advocate. It’s easy enough to pick a threshold that includes Halladay with the all-time greats; I simply meant to show that one can also pick a threshold that seems to exclude him.
BTW, 6.5 WAR seems especially arbitrary in light of your opening. One might almost believe it had been chosen because of Halladay’s 3 seasons between 6.5 and 6.9 WAR…. 🙂
Or your choice of 8 because Halladay had never reached that plateau:-)
@32 — Now we understand each other!
Well he was getting bombed in spring training but I think he was tired of people wondering what was going on so he went out and threw 6 shutout innings in his last start.