Barring injury, Derek Jeter will this season likely pass Cal Ripken and Robin Yount to become the all-time career Hits leader among AL shortstops. Which means, of course, that he will then trail only Honus Wagner, the NL leader. So, will he catch Honus?

Jeter needs 333 more hits to pass Wagner. Favorite Toy gives Derek only about a 30% chance of doing that. But, that’s based on only 1.5 more seasons, the maximum that Favorite Toy gives to anyone older than 37. My hunch is Derek will last longer than that. But, let’s see if we can find some evidence to support my hunch.

I looked at players aged 34 to 37 who compiled at least 600 hits while playing at least half the time at shortstop. It’s a short list.

Jeter is clearly superior in offense to all the comps except Wagner. Notice, though, how similar Reese’s and Jeter’s OBP and SLG numbers are. But, a longer schedule and a 20 point edge in BA translated into about 30 more hits a season for Jeter.

Of course, Jeter and Tejada are no help in projecting what might happen after age 37. But, how did the other guys do?

Wagner continued to perform solidly, averaging about 130 hits for six more seasons. Ozzie managed 4 more seasons, but only one as a regular. He contributed 5.2 WAR over those seasons including 2 dWAR.

Reese and Aparicio had parts of only two seasons remaining, and Dark part of only one season. Reese’s offense really cratered, and Dark had only a minuscule 0.2 WAR while playing mostly in the outfield his final year, so their early exits are not surprising. Aparicio put up a solid 2.3 WAR in his final season, so his release by the Red Sox is more of a mystery. His SABR Bio says Aparicio had an open offer to join the Yankees but declined, telling Steinbrenner that being released once was enough for him.

As an aside, Aparacio and Smith are among a select group to play only one position their entire careers. Excepting his turns at DH, Jeter has done the same.

What if we expand the search beyond shortstops? I found 65 players since 1901 who amassed 600 or more hits aged 34 to 37 while playing at least half time at any infield position or as DH. The median remaining career hits for this group (counting zero for the 10 players whose career ended at age 37) was 247, Luis Aparicio’s total. The total Jeter needs was at about the 37th percentile, a bit better than the chance Favorite toy gives.

Looking at performance from age 38 onwards for all players who played half-time in the infield or DH gives us these guys:

What is most instructive about this list is that you have to play at least 3 more seasons if you want to amass over 300 hits after age 38 (the most hits of any player after age 38 who did not play to age 40 was 267 by Rico Carty). The other thing to notice is that, like Jeter, you had better be an outstanding player, if not an all-time great, if you want to accomplish this. Notice also the two shortstops (Appling, Vizquel) high up on this list who did not show up in the original query of shortstops getting 600 hits from age 34 to 37.

What does it all mean? I’m sticking with my hunch and giving Jeter better odds than Favorite Toy of passing Wagner. Let’s say at least a 50% chance of three more seasons, which should be enough to reach the milestone. Caveat is that his offense can’t slide too much as, unlike Smith, Aparicio and others, Derek doesn’t provide stellar defense as insurance for his spot in the lineup. If he craters like Reese did (or the way he himself did the first part of last season), then three more seasons may well be too much to expect.

What do you think?