28 thoughts on “Happy birthday Miguel Cabrera: Hall of Famer & career projections”

1. Timmy Pea April 18, 2012 at 9:53 am

   You are leaving one key factor out of your career calculations for Cabrera and that is his off the field problems. I always hope every player does well, breaks records, and hits milestones. I hope Cabrera does as well. I enjoy drinking quite a bit myself and I know from experience that it causes me to run out of cat food once in a while, or forget to file my income tax returns.

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   1. Artie Z April 18, 2012 at 10:14 am

      There are a few guys on the list who had off the field “issues”, be they alcohol related or otherwise – Foxx, Mantle, and Cobb are the ones that jump out and from what I’ve read Hornsby was not the greatest guy in the world. Looking at Hornsby, Mantle, and Foxx they all had around 4000 more PAs afterwards. I think that might be the best estimate for Cabrera if we are trying to compare personality traits at this level (all of these guys are outliers in terms of baseball talent). Still, another 4000 PAs puts him around 450 HRs.

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      1. Timmy Pea April 18, 2012 at 11:25 am

         The most tragic case of off the field problems might be Hack Wilson. He was a damn good player but was a heavy drinker at an early age. http://hack191.com/obit.html

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         1. Lawrence Azrin April 18, 2012 at 12:32 pm

            Hack Wilson would be far from the only MLB great who drank a lot. Chronologically, there’s King Kelly, Ed Delahanty, Pete Alexander, Rabbit Maranville, Ed Delahanty, Jimmy Foxx, Paul Waner, Mickey Mantle, and Dennis Eckersley for starters. Wilson, Foxx, and Mantle seem to be the players whose career was shortened the most by drinking.

            And it’s not limited to players – HOF manager Joe McCarthy was infamous for his periodic benders. There is vastly less tolerance for this nowadays, though. In the 19th century, it would probably be easier to list the players who _didn’t_ drink at all.

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            1. Timmy Pea April 18, 2012 at 12:40 pm

               In the 19th century, it would probably be easier to list the players who _didn’t_ drink at all. Ha! That’s awesome and why I should have lived in the 19th century!
            2. Timmy Pea April 18, 2012 at 8:48 pm

               Eckersly got a handle on his drinking during his career, and loot at what he accomplished after.
            3. vivaeljason April 18, 2012 at 10:43 pm

               To be fair, Mantle’s problems also involved being hurt often — which is really what shortened his career. I’m sure drinking did him no favors, but Mantle was never really healthy for a full season.
2. deal April 18, 2012 at 10:04 am

   Agree with Timmy Pea above – His off the field issues don’t appear to be isolated incidence.

   My fear for Miguel Cabrera is that his post career winds up like Lenny Dykstra.

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   1. Andy Post authorApril 18, 2012 at 10:06 am

      I think Cabrera has done a reasonable job of recovering from those issues–although I agree he’s a higher risk than a player whose never had the problems.

      I think the bigger concern for him is his weight—heavy players don’t often play well into their late 30s.

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      1. Mike L April 18, 2012 at 10:55 am

         i wonder if he’s going to age a little like Manny has although he’s taller. Still retained his hitting ability, but to a diminishing degree and with more injuries.

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      2. Timmy Pea April 18, 2012 at 11:13 am

         Great point about heavy players, think Cecil Fielder, Greg Luzinski, Bob Hamlin, or Steve Balboni. Compared to those guys though, Cabrera is in good shape. I feel bad about bringing up a guys off the field problems on his birthday, but drinking too much can cause trouble. Look at Josh Hamilton. His claim to fame might end up being the best player talent wise not to end up in the HoF because he missed so much time and got such a late start. Not to mention he might not have such a good handle on things because his problem was drugs and booze.

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         1. Big Daddy V April 18, 2012 at 11:55 am

            Look at Cabrera and Prince Fielder standing next to each other, and you’ll forget about Cabrera’s weight in a second. Prince is just massive (although he moves very well for his size).

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            1. Andy Post authorApril 18, 2012 at 12:03 pm

               True. Cabrera next to Prince looks like those photos of Prince next to Cecil from when Cecil played for the Tigers.
3. Ed April 18, 2012 at 10:13 am

   I know Cabrera’s playing 3rd this year…but WOW is the AL stacked at 1st base. Of course, they “stole” quite few of them from the NL – Gonzalez, Pujols, Fielder/Cabrera.

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4. John Autin April 18, 2012 at 10:21 am

   I keep waiting for the baseball media to officially recognize that Miggy is the best hitter in the game today. Perhaps not the best offensive player, and definitely not the best all-around player, but to me, unquestionably the best hitter.

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5. John Autin April 18, 2012 at 10:32 am

   Seasonal averages through age 28 (9 seasons for each player):

   Aaron – 150 G, .320/.373/.571/.943, 155 OPS+, 33 HRs, 110 RBI
   Miggy – 150 G, .317/.395/.555/.950, 149 OPS+, 31 HRs, 109 RBI

   As a hitter, Cabrera is just a shade below Henry at the same age. I don’t expect him to age as well as Aaron, but that’s still a hell of a ballpark.

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   1. Doug April 18, 2012 at 5:56 pm

      Never would have guessed they would be that close.

      What’s interesting is at age 28, Aaron then and Cabrera now are (apparently) heading into a low offense era. Similar context should make assessment of Cabrera’s continued tracking to Aaron more relevant.

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6. John Autin April 18, 2012 at 10:35 am

   I think the shift to 3B is a great thing for Miggy’s future. He was reported to have lost about 20 lbs. from last year; he certainly looks less jowly in that photo above.

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7. Voomo Zanzibar April 18, 2012 at 10:40 am

   Odd that 2008 was his worst year (low in ops+), yet that was the only year that he led his league in homers and total bases.

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   1. birtelcom April 18, 2012 at 4:56 pm

      In 2008, Cabrera’s BB% and BABIP were both down dramatically from his career standards, even as his HR rate, his K rate, his extra-base hit rate all stayed at his normal level. Not sure if that reflected some change on his part, but might have just been a run of luck.

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8. birtelcom April 18, 2012 at 5:07 pm

   Cabrera, Fielder and Alex Avila all were over 5 WAR last season. They are all off to solid starts this season and if all three repeat at the 5+ WAR level in 2012, they would be only the third catcher/first basemen/third basemen trio for a single team to rack up 5 or more WAR each. Previously: the 1936 Yankees with Dickey, Gehrig and Red Rolfe, and the 1997 Mets with Todd Hundley, John Olerud and Edgardo Alfonzo.

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9. birtelcom April 18, 2012 at 5:19 pm

   Miguel’s personal habits and body shape certainly haven’t hurt his ability to play every day so far. The only major leaguer with more games played from and including 2004 through now is Ichiro, with his slightly different body shape.

   Most Games Played, 2004-2012:
   Ichiro Suzuki 1,288
   Miguel Cabrera 1,275
   Michael Young 1,254
   Bobby Abreu 1,243
   Albert Pujols 1,241

   Note that for Ichiro and Abreu these totals include not a single game played before the age of 30.

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   1. John B April 18, 2012 at 5:31 pm

      And Prince Fielder has played the most games since 2006.

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   2. Doug April 18, 2012 at 6:11 pm

      There have been 152 players (including active players) since 1901 to play 1300 or more games from age 21-30. Of those only 20 played 1300 games after age 30.

      Scanning down the list, the first “ample-bodied” player who jumps off the page is #70, George Scott, with 696 games after age 30. Jimmie Foxx is at #82 with 607 games, Boog Powell is #96, 503 games and Greg Luzinski #109, 428 games.

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10. John Autin April 18, 2012 at 9:10 pm

    Cabrera on his birthday, before today (8 games): 14 for 31 (.452 BA, .500 OBP), 10 runs, 6 RBI, 5 doubles, 1 HR (.710 SLG).

    He has a 7-year birthday hitting streak.

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11. bstar April 18, 2012 at 10:14 pm

    I’m absolutely thrilled to see Cabrera get his due on this site. What’s really encouraging about Miggy is that he seems to be getting better, posting the two best OPS+ numbers of his career the last two years. This is mainly due to plate discipline: since his career-low BB% in 2008, Cabrera has increased his walk total every year since, boosting his WAR total to 7+ the last two years.

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12. John Autin April 18, 2012 at 10:52 pm

    News of the improbable: 1st inning in Seattle tonight, Chone Figgins hit his first HR since Opening Day of last year. Moments later, Ichiro hit his first HR of the year.

    Figgins (0.6%) and Ichiro (1.2%) are in the bottom 15 in active HR%, out of 164 active hitters with at least 3,000 PAs.

    Using their career rates, the odds of Figgins and Ichiro both homering in a given AB is about 1 in 14,000. Somehow, it feels more like one in a million….

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13. Fireworks April 19, 2012 at 11:44 am

    I think Dykstra is a horrible comp for anyone. “Nails” went off the deep end somehow. Heavy drinking or Puckett-esque more suits a poor post-career.

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