Jose Bautista is having a really sloooow start

17 Comments

1. 1
   joeyogi says:

   April 30, 2012 at 3:53 pm

   doug

   fantastic post. love your site and work.

   thanks

   Reply
2. 2
   Hartvig says:

   April 30, 2012 at 5:23 pm

   I wrote a long comment about this on a previous post about Bautista & Pujols and then erased it because I was at least partially contradicting myself in it. Looking at Bautista’s numbers, it seems to me that beginning in the second half of last year that teams are really starting to pitch around him- his walks are about the same or a little higher but his strike outs are up quite a bit and his power numbers are down. I’m guessing that as long as all Toronto has to hit behind him are Lind and Encarnacion that no one is going to throw him anything decent to hit unless they absolutely have too.

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   • 4
     Doug says:

     May 1, 2012 at 1:11 am

     Bautista definitely cooled off the second part of last year, but his walk rate this year are about the same as his overall rate last year, and his strikeouts are at a lower rate this year. So, even if he doesn’t get much good to hit, should continue to draw lots of walks.

     John’s point below (comment #3) about his far below normal BABIP this year is probably most relevant and something that should correct itself.

     Reply
3. 3
   John Autin says:

   April 30, 2012 at 6:08 pm

   I’ve already expressed (in a reply to Neil L.) my confidence that Bautista will produce. He’s not striking out, he’s taking his walks. The main factor in his numbers is a .179 BAbip, which is about 100 points below his prior career average.

   There might be some subtler problem, but without having seen him yet, I wouldn’t know.

   Doug, I’m curious about one of the criteria for your comparison group. Why did you cap the OPS+ at 200?

   Reply
   • 5
     Doug says:

     May 1, 2012 at 1:18 am

     Great point John about his low BABIP. A number that low will correct itself, assuming Bautista doesn’t get totally out of sorts.

     I haven’t seen a lot of Bautista this year (3 or 4 games), but he doesn’t look as relaxed as he looked last year (especially early last year). He takes massively hard cuts, but did so more smoothly last year – his swing this year seems a little rushed, with too much lunge in it.

     I capped the comparison group at 200 OPS+ to find seasons similar to Bautista’s 2011 season. There are actually 23 seasons meeting the other criteria and at OPS+ of 200 or more – all of them by 4 players (Ruth, Williams, Mantle, Bonds).

     Reply
4. 6
   MikeD says:

   May 1, 2012 at 4:47 am

   The good news for Bautista is everyone on that list went on to excellent hitting seasons despite their slow starts. Helton, Kiner and Gehrig(’38) had the next lowest OPS’s after Bautista.

   I was thinking Lou Gehrig’s 1938 season was a good match in that he also had a very low BA in April (absurdly low for him at .221), but was still generating walks. Yet perhaps that’s not the most comforting comparison as I go off on a bit of a tangent.

   But for a few PAs in 1939, Gehrig’s last full season in the majors was 1938. Although Gehrig was still productive, finishing with a 132 OPS+ that season, it was nevertheless down substantially from his prior year and career numbers. He was in his age-35 season, so it is fair to wonder if age was starting to diminish his skills, or perhaps it was just the randomness of baseball and he hit into some bad luck (there is some supporting evidence for this) producing an off year for him, one which he would have roared back from in 1939. Since he never removed himself from the lineup, it’s also possible he may have had a few injuries that weren’t enough to take him out of the lineup, but impacted his overall numbers. Or perhaps it was related to the disease that took his life. Much is still not known about ALS and similar neurological diseases, but it is believed that it exists prior to the patient becoming aware of it, so it’s possible that before it reached a point where it ended his career in 1939, that his body was experiencing subtle motor neuron impairment that very slightly dulled his athletic skills, but not enough to impact normal activities. Gehrig himself did note he started to feel more fatigued than usual during the 1938 season and that he didn’t quite feel himself for large stretches of the season.

   I mention this because I’m guessing that pretty much all of us as baseball fans have looked at Gehrig’s career stats and wondered where his final numbers would have sat if not for the sudden end. It’s impossible to determine since players age differently and Gehrig wasn’t exactly a normal baseball player or physical specimen. His last full season does appear to have been impacted by ALS if we’re to trust Gehrig’s words. The one item that gets lost when trying to guess Gehrig’s final numbers is the impact of World War II. He would have been 38 years old and the sole support for his family, including his mother. He would not have been drafted, which means he might very well have played until his early 40s against the weakened talent level of the war years. His career RBIs and walks would be well out of reach, and one has to wonder if he would have bested Ruth’s career HR record.

   Now back to our reguarly scheduled programming!

   Reply
   • 8
     Mike L says:

     May 1, 2012 at 9:16 am

     Mike D, I wonder if Gehrig would have been able to stay out of the war in some capacity. His parents were German immigrants, and that might have been dicey, even given his advanced age. More likely the Army would have have found some role for him.

     Reply
     • 10
       RetroRob says:

       May 1, 2012 at 11:50 pm

       Mike L, regarding Gehrig, WWII and his German ancestry, you bring up a good point and it was one I wanted to touch on, but my posting was already way too long, especially considering I started out to write about Bautista!

       It’s an interesting question, but one which is basically impossible to answer without getting into the mind and soul of Lou Gehrig, because I don’t think there was a great chance of him being drafted initially. He would have had to made the decision to enlist at the age of 38.

       While some may not be aware of this, but the draft did exist prior to the attack on Pearl Harbor, with pretty much any male between 21-45 being eligible for conscription. This helped supplement those who were volunteering. (I have no idea if someone could volunteer before age 21, or if that initial age restriction was only for drafting.) Indeed, the first name player to be drafted was Hank Greenberg during the early part of the 1941 season, and a good six or seven months before Pearl Harbor and the United States entering the war. At that time, most expected Greenberg would be back within one year for the 1942 season, but everything changed 12/7/41. Greenberg didn’t return until the end of the 1945 season and thus missed more MLB time than any star player due to WWII. (BTW Greenberg actually could have returned to MLB after serving his one year, but he opted to re-enlist.)

       While the United States didn’t enter WWII during the early days of Germany rampaging through Europe, the country was clearly making preparations to enter it at some point, hence the draft. Yet it was basically young men. Greenberg at 30 was a little bit older than the average draftee. After Pearl Harbor, the draft was expanded to not just those in their 20s, but into their early 30s, then mid-30s, and eventually later 30s. Yet since Gehrig was already 38 when the United States’ entered the War, it was very unlikely he would have been among the first wave of draftees, and after that he couldn’t have been drafted. I can’t remember exactly when, but at some point in 1942, the government introduced the draft lottery, basically ended volunteering because there was no need for it, and lowered the draft ages from 21-45 to 18-38. Gehrig turned 39, and became draft ineligible at some point during 1942.

       So unless Gehrig was drafted immediately, or was overtaken by the moment and enlisted, then odds are he never would have been drafted. For example, both DiMaggio and Williams both played the entire 1942 season, and were younger men. They would have been targeted to be drafted before Gehrig. Would Gehrig have enlisted in December 1941? The Bob Feller scenario we’ve all heard about was not the norm. Gehrig was a shy man, would have been in his late 30s, and his mother had great control over his life, to the point he probably never had kids because of his mother’s wishes. Would Mom Gehrig have encouraged her son to go join the war? I don’t think do.

       It is possible that the Army knowing the draft age was about to limited to age 38, and knowing that Gehrig was of German ancestry, might have purposely drafted him at the last second as a symbol in the fight against Germany. Yet, I think it’s unlikely. After FDR’s Green Light Letter in early 1942 kept baseball going because of its necessity to America, it’s probably more likely an older player and icon like Gehrig would have been asked to stay in MLB as younger players went off to WWII in increasing numbers.

       My guess is an older and diminished Gehrig had a chance to really add up some additional counting stats during the War years.

       Granted, this is all my guess on what would of or could have happened.

       Today’s MLB Moment in War History is brought to you by…

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       • 11
         MikeD says:

         May 1, 2012 at 11:54 pm

         …MikeD. Should have updated my log in.

         Reply
   • 9
     Lawrence Azrin says:

     May 1, 2012 at 11:41 am

     From what I remember reading about Gehrig’s 1938, he struggled in spring training and in April (splits of .116/.333/.186), then got back to form the rest of the year. Someone has hypothesized that his body was subconciously adjusting to the changes brought on by the very beginning of ALS.

     As for WWII, there’s no guarantee that he would’ve still been a productive regular at 38/39.. There’s been plenty of great players almost as good as him, whose careers as regulars ended at 35/36.

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     • 12
       MikeD says:

       May 2, 2012 at 12:02 am

       Lawrence, that’s quite possible. I have also read that his fatigue hit him at such levels in 1938 that it was originally believed that he had a gall bladder infection. I read a bit more on his 1938 season this evening and it’s a little clearer to me that he was being impacted that year by ALS, but not enough to prevent him from playing. A non athlete might not have noticed any signs, but as a professional athlete he was pushing his body harder than most, probably why he was having some early fatigue problems since ALS impacts the body’s muscles.

       Yet if he didn’t have ALS it’s impossible to guess how he would have aged normally. Sure, he might have been done at 38, or he might have made into his early 40s, especially if he was playing against a lower level of competition during WWII. The War nearly wiped out the minor leagues, dropping from something like 45 leagues to a dozen, that in turn impacted the Majors.

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5. 7
   bstar says:

   May 1, 2012 at 7:00 am

   It is always fun to wonder where Lou Gehrig would have ended up on the all-time HR list, although I think him exceeding Babe Ruth’s 714 total would have been a very tough task indeed.

   Let’s assume that, disease-free, Gehrig hit as many HR in his age-35 season as he did in his age-34 year(37), eight more than his actual 29 total in ’38. That would have given him 501 HR thru age 35, but there have been twelve other players in history to exceed that total by that age, with Alex Rodriguez at 629 the clear leader here. Babe Ruth had 564 at that point, so Gehrig would have had to close ~ a 60-65 gap on Ruth in his waning years. Could he have done it? Assuming the 8 extra HR from ’38, he would have needed 214 more HRs from age 36+. Only one player in MLB history has hit that many HR after age-35(Bonds at 268), and he, errr, may have had some help with that. Here’s a list of the best HR totals age 36 and beyond:

   1. Barry Bonds 268
   2. Henry Aaron 201
   3. Darrell Evans 182
   4. Rafael Palmeiro 169
   5. Carlton Fisk 167
   6. Ted Williams 155

   I personally think Gehrig’s total was more likely to end somewhere between 600 and Willie Mays at 660, but with his consistency and flawless health anything is certainly possible. I’m a lot more confident, however, that Gehrig would have set an all-time RBI record that even Henry Aaron’s 2,297 tally may not have matched. After all, Gehrig had more RBI at age-35 than anyone in MLB history:

   RBI thru age-35 season
   1. Lou Gehrig 1,994
   2. Alex Rodriguez 1,893
   3. Jimmie Foxx 1,882
   4. Mel Ott 1,777
   5. Babe Ruth 1,724
   6. Henry Aaron 1,714

   With RBI totals being devalued in recent times, I don’t think much fanfare will surround Alex Rodriguez if he passes Aaron’s career mark of 2,297, and I do think if A-Rod can stay healthy he will eclipse this mark playing for the high-octane Yankees. But if Lou Gehrig had set a mark seventy-plus years ago that no one had touched to date, that would be a lot of fun to see Rodriguez(or Pujols in ten years) try to best that mark.

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   • 13
     MikeD says:

     May 2, 2012 at 12:20 am

     Agreed with you on the HRs. He would have had to maintain the high HR pace. Could he have averaged 32 HRs a year through age 40? Maybe, but even that “only” takes him to Willie Mays territory, and then he’d have to play another couple seasons and hit another 55 HRs to break it. It doesn’t seem likely unless he could have added in a couple more upper-40s HR seasons like he had in ’34 and ’36, before beginning a more gradual decline. Odds are against it, but Gehrig wasn’t a normal baseball player up until ALS, which is why it’s always a fun game to play, especially adding in the war years.

     I do think the RBI and base-on-balls records would be his and pretty much out of reach.

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     • 14
       Hartvig says:

       May 2, 2012 at 1:22 am

       Another factor that would have been working against him would have been the ball used during the war. Between 1942 and 1945 only 3 guys hit as many as 30 home runs and another 20 guys hit as many as 20- and the majority of those hit between 20 and 22. It’s hard to imagine even a healthy 40 year old Lou Gehrig hitting more than guys like Johnny Mize or Mel Ott.

       Reply
6. 15
   Joseph says:

   May 2, 2012 at 8:00 pm

   The difference between most of the players on the list and Bautista is that Bautista has had 1.5 seasons of really outstanding baseball, the way I see it.

   Last year he faded badly in the second half of the season:

   12 HR’s, a .257 average, and .896 OPS compared to 31 HR’s, .334, and 1.170.

   In 2010 he came out of 6 years where he average an OPS+ of about 91.

   He’s going to be one of those stories about having a brief flash of greatness and then burned out. He’s already 31–many of the greats have started to slow down by that time.

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7. 16
   Doug says:

   May 2, 2012 at 8:55 pm

   Joseph,

   I have a hunch you may be right about Bautista. Players with late peaks don’t tend to sustain them for long (if I’m remembering correctly a study Bill James did on age and performance levels).

   Reply
8. 17
   Neil L. says:

   May 2, 2012 at 9:15 pm

   Joseph, as an observer in the Toronto market, my worst fear is that you are right about Jose Bautista and his celestial 1.5 seasons. However, what a 1.5-year run it was, if it is over. And, unlike, Brady Anderson and others, I don’t believe his sudden power surge was substance-fueled.

   I do disagree with you, respectfully, that his slow start this year and poor second half last year are age-related. His physical conditioning and work out regimen, from all reports, are as good as ever. Jose Bautista’s swing, if you look at video, is as vicious as ever …. he is not missing pitches because of a slow bat.

   I think Doug, in comment #5, has it right. He is overswinging at pitches. Jose has always been a flyball hitter but he is popping an inordinate number of pitches up. It’s as if he is not trusting the natural power of his swing.

   The Pujols-Bautista statistical comparison for 2012 will remain an intriguing one. However, Albert has the excuse of a new league and a new team. And, of course, Pujols’ has a much better career body of work.

   However, Jose Bautista and Albert Pujols remain the leading power hitters over the last two plus seasons.

   Konerko, Swisher, and others still are behind them.

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