Over the Hill At 20? Jason Heyward and Claudell Washington

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In his age 20 season, 2010, Jason Heyward produced 5.2 Wins Above Replacement, according to baseball-reference’s formula (5.1 using the fangraphs formula). That’s All-Star level production for a player of any age, and extremely high production for a twenty-year-old. More on high-WAR 20-year-olds, and their future, after the jump.

All-Time Highest bWAR in Age 20 Season, Non-Pitchers:
1. Alex Rodriguez (1996) 9.4
2. Al Kaline (1955) 9.0
3. Ty Cobb (1907) 8.4
4. Mel Ott (1929) 8.0
5. Ted Williams (1939) 6.8
6. Mickey Mantle (1952) 6.6
7. Vada Pinson (1959) 6.3
8. Frank Robinson (1956) 6.2
9. Sherry Magee (1905) 6.0
10. Jayson Heyward (2010) 5.2
11. Rogers Hornsby (1916) 4.8
12. Johnny Bench (1968) 4.7
13. Ken Griffey, Jr. (1990) 4.6
14. Claudell Washington (1975) 4.6
15. Jimmie Foxx (1928) 4.6

How did these young stars do in their next season — their age 21 year? 13 of these 15 players were again over 4.5 WAR in their age 21 season. The only two of these guys who fell to less-than-star level in their age 21 season were Jayson Heyward (2.0 WAR in 2011) and Claudell Washington (0.3 WAR in 1976). In terms of full careers, here are how the guys above have done in terms of career WAR (not counting Heyward, who is only 22):

1. Ty Cobb 159.4
2. Rogers Hornsby 127.8
3. Ted Williams 125.3
4. Mickey Mantle 120.2
5. Mel Ott 109.3
6. Frank Robinson 107.4
7. Alex Rodriguez 104.6
8. Jimmie Foxx 94.1
9. Al Kaline 91.0
10. Ken Griffey, Jr. 78.6
11. Johnny Bench 71.3
12. Sherry Magee 59.1
13. Vada Pinson 49.3
14. Claudell Washington 18.2

Again, Claudell Washington is the one obvious outlier of the group, the one who fell seriously short of major stardom. Claudell was a fine player, who played seventeen years in the majors combining speed with decent power. He was extremely athletic, lean and muscular, the classic multi-tool guy. While his strike zone judgment wan’t great, he was injured often, and he was one of many caught in the cocaine scandals of his era, he was usually a productive player. Bill James ranked him 84th among right fielders all-time in his New Historical Abstract and pointed out that despite his decent productivity Claudell was considered a disappointment throughout his career because he never lived up to the promise of that season he had as a 20-year-old. Can Jayson Heyward, who is apparently now being platooned, recover the level of performance he achieved in 2010, or will he suffer a fate similar to Claudell’s?

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Paul E

12 years ago

Give the guy 625 PA’s and let him sink or swim…..send him back to AAA if it doesn”t work – kind of like Brad Komminsk. You know, the same Brad Komminsk who had more frequent flyer miles on Piedmont Airlines than anyone in the history of the world. He achieved this by going from Richmond to Atlanta several thousand times in his illustious career…. I mean, really, what are the Braves supposed to do? DFA? Let him play; let the batting coach earn his salary. If Heyward ends up like #12 and 13 on the list, that’s a pretty good… Read more »

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Doug

12 years ago

Reply to Paul E

Agree.

Suspect that a lot of these guys regressed in the following year, then made some adjustments. A-Rod, for example, saw his WAR drop over 50% in his age 21 season. But, hard to make those adjustments if you’re not playing regularly.

Other thing to note is that, unlike Heyward, a lot of these guys weren’t raw rookies at age 20. Many (A-Rod, Kaline, Ott, Cobb, Foxx, Griffey) of these guys had some playing time or even full seasons as teenagers, when they got the experience of struggling and making those adjustments.

12 years ago

Anyone know the back story on why the A’s traded Washington after his age 21 season?

Editor

John Autin

12 years ago

Reply to Ed

Ed, I think it was just part of the overall dismantling of that team. After 1976 — when Finley made his intentions clear by trying to sell Blue, Rudi & Fingers even though the A’s were in contention (and Kuhn blocked him) — almost all the regulars departed, either as free agents or by trade. The regular lineup was 100% new in 1977; Vida Blue was the only significant holdover on the pitching side, and he was dealt after that year.

12 years ago

Reply to John Autin

Thanks John! I was aware that the A’s were in transition/turmoil during that time period, but had no idea they basically flipped their entire lineup and pitching staff in one year.

Lawrence Azrin

12 years ago

Reply to Ed

Finley wanted no part of free agency and as John says above (#5), he basically gutted the team in 1975-76. By 1977, the front office consisted mostly of Finley and Stanley Kirk Burrell (the former batboy later known as M.C. Hammer).

I distinctly remember in 1976 (June 15th), Finley tried to sell Joe Rudi and Rollie Fingers to the Red Sox for $1 million each, but Commissioner Bowie Kuhn voided the sale “in the best interests of baseball”. He also tried to sell Blue to the Yankees.

12 years ago

Reply to Lawrence Azrin

In one of his Abstracts, Bill James completely eviscerated Kuhn for his decision to block the sales. As I recall, James’ points were 1) such sales had ALWAYS been legal in the past and 2) Kuhn was blocking one of the ways teams had of acquiring talent (and raising money); teams thus had less leverage when negotiating with free agents which in turn led to contracts escalating. I’m probably simplifying James’ argument to a certain extent but that’s the best I can remember it off the top of my head. Kuhn’s decision definitely wasn’t in the “best interests of baseball”.… Read more »

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John Autin

12 years ago

Reply to Lawrence Azrin

Lawrence — I think it’s more precise to say that Finley wanted no part of the free agency system that the owners had negotiated with the players’ union, after all their attempts to overturn the Seitz decision failed. Once the owners realized that free agency was here to stay, they “convinced” the players to accept limitations, i.e., free agency after 6 years. Of course, this was exactly what Marvin Miller secretly wanted. Two years prior, the crazy bidding in Catfish Hunter’s one-off free agency had shown that limiting the talent pool could have a wildly disproportionate affect on the price… Read more »

Hartvig

12 years ago

Reply to Ed

I wonder if Washington’s problem may not have been over-coaching. He played no organized ball before starting in the minors as a 17 year old, tore thru the minor in about 200 games and ripped the cover off the ball everywhere he played- I’m sure when he got to the majors as a 19 year old there was still a lot about the game that he didn’t understand yet. Maybe they took it easy on him for the first couple of years and then decided to “learn” him about baseball. And like Yogi says: you can’t hit and think. Or… Read more »

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birtelcom

12 years ago

Reply to Hartvig

It’s also possible things just went right for him in 1975 — balls fell in to holes, more umpire calls went right then wrong, he avoided random aches and pains, etc. Perhaps that unique combination of good luck was just not fated to be repeated, as his results thereafter better matched his real talent level.

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John Autin

12 years ago

Reply to Hartvig

In this vein, it may be worth noting that the club he broke in with:

– was in the process of winning their 3rd straight WS, and then in his first full season would claim their 5th straight division crown; and

– by ’76 those players were in full-on “eff-you” mode towards ownership, and in many cases towards each other, too.

Whatever the reasons, by the time he reached the White Sox in ’78 the fans perceived him as quite lackadaisical — hence the banners “Washington Slept Here” that sprung in Comiskey’s RF stands.

Editor

John Autin

12 years ago

Reply to John Autin

Claudell Washington’s managers:
– 1974-75 A’s, Alvin Dark
– 1976 A’s, Chuck Tanner
– 1977 Rangers, Frank Lucchesi, Eddie Stanky, Connie Ryan, Billy Hunter (the middle 2 were interims)
– 1978 Rangers, Billy Hunter (who would be fired at year’s end, after CW was traded); White Sox, Bob Lemon & Larry Doby
– 1979 White Sox, Don Kessinger & Tony LaRussa
– 1980 White Sox, LaRussa; Mets, Joe Torre

That’s 9 managers in 7 years, not counting interims.

nightfly

12 years ago

Reply to John Autin

Eddie Stanky… poor guy. IIRC, he managed one game with the Rangers, and then quit, giving as his reason that he didn’t want to die young.

Those Rangers were a dreadful outfit.

And Washington was managed by LaRussa and Torre before either of them was a genius. Talk about unlucky.

Editor

John Autin

12 years ago

Great idea, Birtelcom. If I may chip in from a slightly different angle: I looked at all first-year qualifiers age 23 or under with OPS+ of 100 and up from 1901-2010. (I used OPS+ to avoid issues of playing time in the 2nd year. And I used “1st-year age 23 or younger” to avoid the issues Doug raised.) There were 85 such players, with an unweighted average OPS+ of 117. Heyward’s 131 OPS+ ranked 14th. http://www.baseball-reference.com/play-index/share.cgi?id=3ncfF In their 2nd year, this group again averaged a 117 OPS+ (unweighted). Comparing each hitter’s 2nd year to his 1st, the percentage change in… Read more »

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birtelcom

12 years ago

Reply to John Autin

My hypothesis to explain the stability in your comparison would be that the natural tendency of very young players to improve with age as they mature toward ther peak is offset by the countervailing natural tendency of a group of players (of any age) who have performed at an above-leverage level in a single season to revert to the mean the following year, as that group is likely to include a disproportionate number of players who, due to random luck and circumstance, have over-performed their objective talent level. The tricky problem with an example such as Heyward, with just two… Read more »

Mike L

12 years ago

Reply to John Autin

In this vein, I’d be very interested to see a posting of players who had true outlier years. Not so much thinking of people like Herb Score as much as players with a Norm Cash experience; competent, even good players who shot the light outs and performed way above their career norms.

Steven

12 years ago

I was always puzzled by the sudden production decline after 1965 of Johnny Callison.

Paul E

12 years ago

Reply to Steven

Callison was a slight man – 5’10” 170#. It was long rumored that the amphetamines that just about everyone ate like candy in the 1960’s may have been part of his premature physical decline. Who knows? The phillies even tried getting him spectacles… Callison from 1962 – 1965 out-assisted a guy named Clemente and had a phenomenal 4 years for a young ballclub managed by Gene Mauch. For all the noise about Mauch being a genius, he sure got a lot out of young talent -Tony Gonzalez, Dick Allen, Callison, Briggs, Rick Wise, Chris Short, Mahaffey, Dennis Bennett. They traded… Read more »

nightfly

12 years ago

Reply to Paul E

The best (only) story I know about Alex Johnson, I read in Tim McCarver’s “Oh Baby I Love It.” Johnson was a teammate of McCarver’s on the Cardinals, and during one of their World Series appearances, the manager (Schoendinst?) wanted to pitch-hit. “Get me Johnson” he yells, but Johnson isn’t in the dugout. He’s in the clubhouse. He was, of all things, snacking on a sandwich. Skipper takes one look at Johnson, “condiments dribbling down his chin,” and wearily asks for someone else. Johnson never appeared in the Series, and never went to the playoffs again, so as McCarver put… Read more »

Paul E

12 years ago

Reply to nightfly

According to Pete Rose, Johnson referred to just about everyone as “Dickhead”. That probably didn’t endear him to management, particularly as an African-American in the l960’s.
Fly ball in the outfield, “I got it, Dickhead”.
Clubhouse attendant, “can you do me a favor, Dickhead, and…..”

You get the idea

Lawrence Azrin

12 years ago

Reply to Paul E

Another(cleaned-up) anecdote:

“When Alex says ‘mother’, he’s using half of his vocabulary.”

I’ve always had an irrational dislike of Alex Johnson because he hit .330 in 1970, and beat out Yaz by one point for the batting title; that would’ve given Yaz four batting titles and placed him in rarified company.

Editor

John Autin

12 years ago

Reply to nightfly

FWIW, there’s a SABR mini-bio of Alex Johnson:
http://sabr.org/bioproj/person/2ad87d7d

Steven

12 years ago

Reply to Paul E

Thanks. His home run and RBI totals dropped off significantly in 1966, yet he still led the NL in doubles. Hitting in a lineup with Richie Allen and Bill White, just a bit more long-ball power by Callison could have helped the Phillies to the pennant that year. They also had Bob Uecker’s career year.

Paul E

12 years ago

Reply to Steven

I recall reading somewhere or heard him in a televised interview and White claimed the 1966 Phillies were the most talented ballclub he ever played on – including the WS winning 1964 Cardinals and the Willie Mays Giants of the late ’50’s.
Bunning Short Wise Jackson Buhl Baldschun
Allen Callison Gonzalez Rojas Taylor Briggs Johnson White Dalrymple….

Alas, a 10-team league makes for a tough roe to hoe

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John Autin

12 years ago

One thing I noticed about the LHB Washington: In 1975, he hit lefties pretty well, .311 with a .746 OPS. But over the next 6 years combined, he averaged about .230 BA and .575 OPS against southpaws. His numbers against RHPs held up much better in that span, about .288 BA and .773 OPS. Another thing is that he never got control of the strike zone. His 1975 walk and K rates were 35 BBs and 88 Ks per 700 PAs, a 2.5 SO/BB ratio. Over the next 4 years his walk rate was about the same, while his Ks… Read more »

bstar

12 years ago

Doug, There’s very little chance Jason Heyward is going to be platooned unless he shows over the course of the first few months that he can’t hit lefties at all. The biggest reason Heyward wasn’t in the lineup last night for the Braves was to get Juan Francisco a few more at-bats at third before Chipper comes back tonight. That forced Prado back to LF and Fredi Gonzalez chose right handed hitter Matt Diaz, who often plays left against LHP, to right. I wouldn’t read too much into one start. After all, last night was the third game out of… Read more »

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Doug

12 years ago

Reply to bstar

Glad to hear that. Whatever benefit might be derived from a platoon advantage would, I think, be offset (and more) mentally by the message that Heyward would receive from a “demotion” like that.

bstar

12 years ago

Claudell Washington, though he never really added a whole lot of production to the team, was an exciting player to watch in his time with the Braves in the 80s. He brought an athletic flair to the game that was easy to root for(if you were in your early teens). Claudell famously extended the Braves’ season-starting record in April 1982 to 13-0 with a two-out, 2 run single in the bottom of the ninth, scoring Rafael Ramirez and Brett Butler to beat the Reds 4-3: http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/ATL/ATL198204210.shtml He also famously “threw his bat” at Reds ace Mario Soto sometime in the… Read more »

SantaClaws

12 years ago

I think Heyward just had a combination of injury and plain bad luck in 2011. So far so good in 2012, he’s becoming more of the monster he was in 2010 and in the minors. He’s leading the team in a good bit of offensive categories or near the top in the rest. I look for him to bloom this year into the great he was predicted to be, honestly. Good for him, I’ve been to every game he’s played when the Braves come to my town and I love watching him play. When he cracks the ball, it makes… Read more »

bstar

12 years ago

Reply to SantaClaws

I was sure hoping that Heyward would bloom this year, SC, but I admit after last year, even though his troubles were clearly injuring-related to an extent, I wasn’t entirely sure who Jason Heyward really was. To see the rebirth of that special talent early this year, coupled with Freddie Freeman’s similar great start, gives this Braves fan a lot of hope for the offensive future of this ballclub.