Sunday recap (4/29)
– Wade Miley held the Marlins hitless into the 6th inning, picked up his third win and dropped his ERA to 1.29. Joining the rotation after Daniel Hudson went down, Miley has not allowed an earned run in two starts totaling 12.1 IP, 3 hits, 3 walks and 13 Ks.
- Only two other pitchers have two games this year of 5+ IP and 2 hits or less (Gio Gonzalez 3, Matt Cain 2).
- Josh Johnson remained winless, allowing 10 hits and 5 runs in 5 IP. It’s the third time this year he’s yielded 10+ hits, something he’d done just once before this season.
- 36-year-old Cody Ransom started his 5th game at 3B today as the Snakes look for some production from the position, with Ryan Roberts hitting .159. Ransom officially qualified for the Hall of Fame last week, appearing in his 10th season — but he just crossed 400 career PAs. He has over 5,700 PAs in 15 seasons in the minors.
– Bartolo Colon was 2 outs away from a shutout, but the Orioles dropped a nickel on him and Grant Balfour, completing a 5-1 homestand. Two infield singles and Colon’s throwing error put the tying runs in scoring position, and Matt Wieters cashed them in with an opposite-field double off Balfour. After an intentional walk, Balfour fell behind 3-1 to Wilson Betemit and then grooved a fastball. “Happy flight!” (Or do they bus it up to the Bronx?)
- Betemit has been in the majors since 2004, and has pinch-hit 175 times — but this was his first walk-off RBI.
- Pedro Strop‘s last 8 games: Loss, Hold, Win, Hold, BS/Win, Save, Save, Win.
- How many parks are there where you can rob a HR with both feet on the ground?
- Does Nick Markakis have the best RF arm in baseball right now? He’s been in the top 5 in outfield assists 4 of the past 5 years.
- Mark Reynolds deserves his iron-glove rep, but give credit when due — this is a great play.
- The upcoming 3-game set in New York will be a bit of a litmus test for the first-place O’s, who were swept at home by the Bombers in the opening week.
– After a leadoff single, Matt Garza got 19 straight outs before a walk broke the string. He finished with a season-high 10 strikeouts in 7 innings. The Phils didn’t get a man to 2nd base until Carlos Marmol started walking the ballpark in the 9th.
- Tony Campana sparked the Cubs’ attack with 2 hits, 2 runs and his 6th steal without being caught. He’s 10 for 23 at bat this year, and he’s 29-for-31 in SB attempts for his career — the best percentage of any active player with 25+ steals.
- In 7.2 IP, Marmol has allowed 9 walks and 7 hits, with just 6 Ks. Today was his 13th relief outing with 3+ walks in an inning or less — 4 more than any other pitcher since 2006. It was the 12th time he’s walked in a run; 5 pitchers have more since ’06, but they’re all starters.
Derek Lowe and the bullpen held the Angels to 3 singles in the Halos’ 4th shutout loss, tied for the MLB lead, as Cleveland claimed sole possession of first place.
- The Angels have lost 6 of 7 series, and their 7-15 start is tied for the worst in club history after 22 games (1976).
- Ervin Santana didn’t allow an earned run over 7 IP, but still became the first Angel in 21 years to lose his first 5 starts. The franchise record is 7 by Joe Grahe.
– Boston has 10 games of 6+ runs (9.6 R/G, 8-2 record) — but also 10 games of 3 runs or less (1.6 R/G, 1-9 record). They’ve scored every number from 0 to 13 except for 8 and the optimal 5.
– Two more hits plus two walks for Derek Jeter, who leads the league in hits and times on base. He has a hit in 18 of 21 games, has reached safely in every game but one, and his 36 hits are the most he’s ever had through 21 team games.
- With 2 RBI, Alex Rodriguez passed Willie Mays for #10 on the career list. The ribbies came on an infield single and a fielder’s choice, but those runs count just as much as a 2-run HR.
– The 16-6 Dodgers are 8-4 when Matt Kemp doesn’t hit a HR.
- The teams combined for just 7 hits, 4 by the Nationals. It’s the fourth game this year in which both teams had 4 hits or less; Washington has been involved in two of them.
- Chris Capuano (9 Ks in 6.2 scoreless IP) became the first pitcher to strike out you-know-who.
- Washington was shut out for the first time this year. Their pitching hasn’t faltered during the 4-game skid, allowing just 11 total runs, but the bats have turned to icicles — 6 runs on 19 hits
– Atlanta won their 6th straight series since being swept by the Mets and moved into a tie for first, ending the Nats’ 16-day reign as the clear leader.
- After a slow start, Michael Bourn is 27 for his last 66 (.409), raising his season mark to .344.
- Tim Hudson returned to active duty with his 182nd career win.
– Todd Helton‘s pinch-slam was his second career PH HR and his first since 1999. Before Tim Byrdak hung a 2-strike slider today, Helton was just 7 for 48 as a pinch-hitter, and lefties against Byrdak this year were 1 for 13 with 8 Ks.
- The resilient Mets blew a 4-0 lead in the 8th and another lead in the 10th (on this CarGo ball-buster), but still eked out the win.
- The Nieuw Kid made another brilliant catch, saving a run, and put the Mets in front in the 10th with his third hit, an opposite-field double.
- Ruben Tejada went 10-17 in the series and became the second Met since 2004 with three straight games of 3+ hits. The Mets record is 4, by Brett Butler in his one partial season with the club.
- David Wright reached in 5 of 6 trips, lifting his OBP to .506 and his OPS+ over 200 in 19 games played.
- As a PH this year, Mike Baxter is now 5-11 with 2 walks, 3 doubles, 3 RBI and 4 runs.
- It took 11 innings and 6 ABs, but Ike Davis got his first 3-hit game in over a year, and the last hit was the sweetest.
– As we near the end of April, the teams currently holding playoff spots are:
- AL East – Orioles/Rays; Central – Indians; West – Rangers; Wild Cards – O’s/Rays and Yankees.
- NL East – Nationals/Braves; Central – Cardinals; West – Dodgers; Wild Cards – Nationals/Braves and Mets.
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I for one thank you John, for doing these recaps for us. It is what I look forward to reading either right before bed, or first thing in the morning (besides my Strat-O-Matic forum!). I know it takes a bit of work, not only to do the write-ups, but also include the stats and videos. Much more fun to read then the recaps on one of the “big box” sports websites. Again, thanks for the dedication and hard work!
Wow. That means a lot to me, John.
I will second what John N said above. JA, your ability to process so much information and boil it down to the important stuff while adding some humor and wit to the mix is very impressive. If you have a peer in this department somewhere out there on the “interweb”, I don’t know who his name is.
By the way, how about the Mets and Braves near the top of the NL East? Feels like 1999 all over again(or 2000 for you!). I keep expecting to see Edgardo Alfonso show up on a Mets boxscore some day soon.
Ah, Edgardo … [sigh] … In his too-brief prime, he was the closest I’d seen to a faultless Met. He was good to excellent in every phase of the game, and if they’d invented new phases he would have been good in them, too. And everyone, but everyone, loved him.
Really, really tough out in his short prime, for sure. Do you know what happened to Alfonso that led to his early demise at age 32?
That’s probably another post. I remember that 1999 Met infield being talked about as perhaps one of the greatest of all time (Piazza, Alfonso, Olerud, Ventura, and Rey Ordonez). Didn’t quite hold together. Olerud left after 1999, Alfonso tailed off, Piazza and Ventura got a little older, and Ordonez lost his edge.
It’s possible Edgardo was older than his reported age. On the other hand, back problems can limit the effectiveness of a player at any age (see, e.g., Ralph Kiner, done in the majors at 32). As for the younger Edgardo, his age 23 through 28 bWAR of 28.3 was higher than the age 23 through 28 totals of guys like Joe Morgan, Rod Carew, Roberto Alomar, Ryne Sandberg, Lou Whitaker…. Though not as high as that of Chuck Knoblauch.
Good points, birt. I’m not going to back this statement with any evidence, but I think 2B is more prone to sudden declines than any other offensive position. I don’t know why, exactly, but the Mets sure had a run of them there — Carlos Baerga, Edgardo, Roberto Alomar….
The Mets still have not found a good long-term solution to the 2B problem that began with Baerga in ’97.
In one offseason, Alomar went from 7.8 WAR to looking like he might not make the cut at Golden League tryouts.
Then we imported Kaz Matsui and moved Reyes to 2B for one season; Jose immediately suffered an injury that cost him half the season. Switched them the next year, and now 2B Matsui suffered the 2-month injury.
Then we decided not to ruin any more young careers, and brought in Jose Valentin on a theory of “he probably won’t hurt us that much” — and he was a million-dollar godsend. How many 36-year-old 2Bs post 1.4 defensive WAR? Then we re-signed him for $4 mil, and the pixie dust wore off.
That, in turn, brought us The Luis Castillopalooza, Alex Cora and His Banjo Swingers, and more recent guys who look as much like a 2B as I look like Viggo Mortensen.
I suddenly feel quite weary….
John A, this is just speculation, but I wonder if 2B doesn’t draw a different type of player. The majority of hitters are right handed, and the ball is more likely to be hit to the left side. If you have great range and a great arm, shortstop is probably a more valuable position. Second basemen short-arm more throws than anyone else on the diamond. Maybe you don’t need quite the same level of athleticism as a shortstop, nor the power of a corner infielder, etc.
Number of players with 1000+ games age 33+, and playing at least 50% of those games at:
C – 2
1B – 13
2B – 6
3B – 5
SS – 5
LF – 8
CF – 8
RF – 7
DH – 4
Doug-
Great information.
At least based on this sample, second base doesn’t appear to be worse for longevity than the other infield defensive positions. I’m a little surprised that 8 guys managed to play 1000 or more games in center field after age
32. Figuring 150 games/season that works out to about 7 full seasons.
And without checking I’m guessing both the guys who did it at catcher share the nickname “Pudge”.
The two catchers were Fisk and Bob Boone. I-Rod played only 785 games after age 32.
The 8 CFers were (in order) Finley, Mays, Doc Cramer, Cy Williams, Cobb, Speaker, Brett Butler and Kenny Lofton. Finley played over 100 games in center every year except his final, age 42 season. Mays last played over 100 games in center at age 39.
JA @ 12: Query whether the Mets have actually have had more trouble filling RF over the last 20 years than 2B. And I’ll bet Viggo doesn’t know jack about Win Probability Added, so he’s no competition for you.
MikeL @ 14: Yes, clearly SS emphasizes range and arm, whereas 2B emphasizes agility on the pivot. As you point out, shortstops will field more ground balls, which means that second basemen are more likely to have to take the pivot on the double play, plus they have to do so while covering a large hole (with a man on first, the first baseman is usually on the bag, leaving the large gap between first and second) and moving away from first base where his throw on the double play pivot needs to go (whereas the shortstop is conveniently moving toward first when he is throwing that way on the pivot). Whether that tricky pivot for the second baseman creates an unusually difficult problem for aging players (compared to other problems for aging players at other positions) is an interesting question.
birtelcom@28 — Good point. For 1992-2011, the Mets have had 5 seasons of 3+ WAR by a 2B, just 2 by a RF (and those were both 3.4 WAR).
Players who have been the regular RF for the Mets since 1992 (min. 60 G in RF):
Bonilla ’92-93, Burnitz ’93, Orsulak ’94, Everett ’95, Alex Ochoa ’96-97, Everett ’97, Huskey ’97-98, R.Cedeno ’99, D.Bell ’00, Timo Perez ’01, Burnitz (again) ’02, Cedeno ’03, Hidalgo ’04, Cameron ’05, Victor Diaz ’05, Nady ’06, S.Green ’07, E.Chavez ’08, Church ’08-09, Francoeur 09-10, Beltran ’11.
Yowza. After all those verses, it seems apt that we’re now singing Duda, Duda.
How did they manage to have Ochoa, Everett and Huskey all log 60+ games in RF in 1997? That’s a pretty intricate 3-man weave.
It can’t be repeated enough how enjoyable reading your summaries have been JA.
Honestly, I wish I’d seen the Edgardo Alfonzo you guys reminisce about. The guy that showed up in San Fran in 03, neither his skills nor his heart were really in it.
Haha, yeah, that’s the Alfonzo I remember as well. I wasn’t sure we were talking about the same person.
While I’m here I’ll also join the John Autin recap love-in. Great stuff JA.
Just wanted to continue the JA love/appreciation…
[Beaming and gushing like Sally Field at the Oscars]
Jose Altuve is the first Astro in 25 years to have at least 12 multi-hit games at this stage of the season.
I don’t know what to think of the Astros. They’ve outscored their opponents but are 8-14, thanks partly to a 2-6 record in one-run games. They’re above the NL average in scoring (4th) and OPS+ (6th-tie), but are hitting .298 with RISP vs. .248 with bases empty; something has to give there. They’ve been out-homered 26 to 13, even though Wandy Rodriguez is among a small handful of SPs throughout MLB who haven’t allowed one yet. Their rotation, except for Wandy, has looked awful.
I guess they’re probably going to wind up about where they are now.
I guess it wil be interesting to see Mets vs. Astros the next three games. The Mets have been heavily outcored by their opponents overall this season but are 13-9, thanks partly to a 6-1 record in one-run games. It’s a Pythag Record vs. Win-Loss Record showdown in Houston.
Despite some good numbers (.368 OBP, 138 OPS+), Adam Dunn is actually ahead of last year’s strikeout rate. Through 95 PAs last year he had 32 strikeouts; this year, 34, currently leading the majors by 5. His BAbip so far is .333; last year’s season mark was .240, and his career BAbip is .292. I do think he’s capable of maintaining his current BAbip, since he has 3 prior full seasons over .320.
I would have thought those years would have been earlier in his career. I was a bit surprised to see that two of those three seasons were all the way back in…2009 and 2010.
Talk about a guy who just fell off the table…
Josh Beckett’s career record in starts, broken down by HRs allowed:
1 or more … 45-60, 5.72 ERA (137 starts)
Exactly 1 … 33-41, 5.01 ERA (95 starts)
None … 82-24, 2.18 ERA (144 starts)
I guess the first HR allowed in a game by any pitcher usually has more impact than any subsequent HRs, but that seems extreme. I’ll have to check the league averages.
Seems I can’t easily get the league averages in the form I want them, so I’ll run individual ERAs for Beckett and for the top 5 in total starts during Beckett’s career, broken out as 2 or more HRs, Exactly 1 HR, and None (all stats below cover only 2001-present).
Josh Beckett
2 or more … 7.37 ERA in 42 GS
Exactly 1 … 5.01 ERA in 95 GS
None … 2.18 ERA in 144 GS
Mark Buehrle
2 or more … 7.09 ERA in 60 GS
Exactly 1 … 4.35 ERA in 141 GS
None … 2.38 ERA in 168 GS
Livan Hernandez
2 or more … 7.00 ERA in 60 GS
Exactly 1 … 5.29 ERA in 124 GS
None … 3.16 ERA in 177 GS
CC Sabathia
2 or more … 6.44 ERA in 45 GS
Exactly 1 … 4.29 ERA in 111 GS
None … 2.52 ERA in 204 GS
Javier Vazquez
2 or more … 6.49 ERA in 80 GS
Exactly 1 … 4.55 ERA in 123 GS
None … 2.43 ERA in 149 GS
Barry Zito
2 or more … 7.10 ERA in 48 GS
Exactly 1 … 4.48 ERA in 130 GS
None … 2.72 ERA in 174 GS
After some quick calculations:
– Expressing their ERA for “Exactly 1″ as a percentage of their ERA for “None”, we find Beckett at 230%, the other five bunched from 165% to 187%.
– Expressing their ERA for “2+” as a percentage of their ERA for “Exactly 1″, we find the range from 132% (Livan) to 163% (Buehrle), with Beckett smack in the middle at 147%.
This is a very coarse check of my theory, but it does give some backing to the notion that Beckett’s results are more affected by a first HR than are those of most pitchers.
Anyone have a way of finding out how many games have ended with a strike-out/throw-out double play, with the throw-out occurring at home, as happened in the Cards/Brewers game yesterday? Double steals do occur, but I just don’t see a lot of SO/2-6-2 DPs in the box score.
Michael, that does seem to be the first game-ending SO/CS double play of this season. There were 4 of them last year, all ending with the runner thrown out at 2B.
Assuming that the Retrosheet play-by-play lines are fully standardized as to form, we can find those events as follows:
Play Index > Event Finders > Batting by Team
Select year(s) and/or team(s)
Select event as “Strikeouts”
Get Report
When the results come in, the main heading will say something like “All of MLB: 4763 Strikeouts in 2012″. The subheading says something like “55 leading off game, 108 game-ending, 0 go ahead, 0 tying”. Each element of that subheading is a clickable filter, so click on the words “game-ending”; that adds the filter “As last play of game” to the search criteria. Again click “Get Report”.
Now you have a list of the game-ending strikeouts. The last task is to search for the phrase “*ENDED GAME*:Double Play” in the Play Description.
In recent years, there have been about 700 game-ending strikeouts per year. The Event Finder will only show 500 results per page, so if your search covers a completed season, you’ll have to scroll to the bottom and click the button that says “501-___” to get the next set.
Game-ending SO/CS, by recent year:
2011 – 4 (all at 2nd base)
2010 – 1 (pinch-runner Darren Ford CS at 2nd)
2009 – 1 (Ryan Braun CS at 2nd)
2008 – 1 (Juan Pierre CS at 2nd)
2007 – 1 (Melvin Mora CS at 2nd)
So, yeah, the game-ending SO/CS at home seems to be pretty darn rare.
P.S. to anyone using the Event Finder: In some of the searches I’ve run today, the first results page showed what should have been the second set, i.e., numbered 501 and up. I had to click on “1-500″ to get the first set.
Bonus: Game-ending SO/WP: http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/TEX/TEX201009290.shtml
Interesting. See…I was fixating on the CS rather than the SO. According to ESPN, the last time a game ended on a CS at home was May 15, 1989.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/DET/DET198905150.shtml
But that was not the elusive SO/CS at home. I just enjoy the notion of a strike em out, throw em out, where the catcher ends up making the throw AND the catch.
Great work, JA.
One small point. The Braves haven’t won the series against the Pirates yet. (Although they may well do so.) The four game set concludes tonight.