The Good, the Bad and the Uggla

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A miscellany of numbers on David Wright, Boston Red Sox pitching and a slugging second baseman, all after the “Read the rest of this entry” thingie.

The Good
Here in New York there has been quite a bit of attention paid to David Wright becoming the Mets’ career franchise leader in hits, passing the 18-season Met Ed Kranepool. But here are some less-noticed points about David:

He has the most hits by a National Leaguer since the beginning of 2005:
1. David Wright 1,346
2. Jose Reyes 1,340
3. Jimmy Rollins 1,316
4. Matt Holliday 1,306
5. Albert Pujols 1,286

Wright is, by far, the advanced-fielding-stats Gold Glover for the NL at third base this season.
Most WAR Fielding Runs by an NL Third Baseman, 2012:
1. David Wright 18
T2. Luis Valbuena and Ryan Roberts 5
4. Aramis Ramirez 4

And that impressive performance on defense, when added to his spectacular first half of the season at bat, puts Wright still in the mix for the top spot in NL WAR for 2012, with three games to go:
1. Andrew McCutchen 7.1
2. Ryan Braun 6.9
T3. David Wright and Yadier Molina 6.8
5. Buster Posey 6.7

The Bad
With three games remaining in the season, the leaders in pitching WAR for the Red Sox are:
1. Scott Atchison 1.7
2. Junichi Tazawa 1.6
3. Clay Buchholz 1.5
No other Boston pitcher is over 0.8 WAR for the season.

The last time the Red Sox went through a full-length season with no pitcher accumulating at least 2.0 WAR or more was 1906. The last AL team before these Red Sox to have gone a season with no pitcher reaching 2.0 WAR was Texas in 2008.

The Uggla
Dan Uggla has tailed off a bit in his home run hitting this season, with just 19 homers through yesterday after 5 years in a row at 30+. But he has hit just enough dingers to have worked his way into the top 10 all-time for career homers as a second baseman. The following list includes only homers hit while in the game as the second baseman:
1. Jeff Kent 351
2. Ryne Sandberg 277
3. Joe Morgan 266
4. Rogers Hornsby 265
5. Bret Boone 251
6. Joe Gordon 246
7. Lou Whitaker 239
8. Craig Biggio 226
9. Bobby Doerr 221
10. Dan Uggla 208
11. Roberto Alomar 207

Dan has also played more games as a National Leaguer than anyone else since the beginning of 2006:
1. Dan Uggla 1,090
2. Brandon Phillips 1,050
3. David Wright 1,030
4. Shane Victorino 1,016
5. Hanley Ramirez 1,004

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Mike L

11 years ago

I find it hard to believe what happened to the Red Sox this year. They remind me a little of the 67/68 Dodgers, who finished 8th and then seventh after three World Series (two wins) in four years. Even if you subtract Sandy Koufax, they were still a young team with talent.

Lawrence Azrin

11 years ago

Reply to Mike L

A lot of the Red Sox decline can be “credited” to their top three starting pitchers going into this year (Lester/ Beckett/ Buchholz), particularly Lester and Beckett. I’m not saying they would be in the playoffs if these three had pitched according to explanations, but they probabably would’ve had a considerably better record.

Author

birtelcom

11 years ago

Reply to Lawrence Azrin

Good point. The difference in WAR between Lester and Beckett this year and last year adds up to about 9 or 10 WAR. If you add that to the fact that the Sox are six wins below their pythagorean expectation this season, in terms of runs scored and runs allowed, a Red Sox team with last year’s edition of Lester and Beckett looks like it would have been maybe an 85-win team, instead of a 69-win team, with three games still to go.

Lawrence Azrin

11 years ago

Reply to birtelcom

The Red Sox offense has declined a lot more from last year than I thought: 2011: 5.40 R/G (led league, vs. AL average of 4.46 R/G), .84 R/G better than league average R/G; 114 OPS+ (led league) 2012: 4.57 R/G (4th in league, vs. AL average of 4.45) R/G), _only_ .12 R/G better than league average R/G; 94 OPS+ (3rd-worst in the AL) It looks like not only did the Red Sox offense decline, the size of the decline was somewhat masked by Fenway being a pronounced hitter’s park in 2012 (though it seems to also have been a hitter’s… Read more »

11 years ago

Reply to Lawrence Azrin

Yeah, let’s not let the position players off the hook.

Ellsbury declined from 8.0 to 0.8 WAR (in half the time).

Pedroia down from 7.8 to 4.6.

Gonzalez down from 6.7 to 2.5 before being traded.

Youkilis down from 3.7 to 0.2 before being traded (in 1/4 the time).

Editor

Bryan O'Connor

11 years ago

Reply to birtelcom

Birtelcom, I’m not sure you can add those WAR and pythag wins to their year-end total and assume they’re an 85-win team. If Lester and Beckett pitched well in the first half, the team may have led the AL East at the trade deadline, and would have been buyers, rather than sellers. Add a Greinke or Wandy Rodriguez to the mix, keep Gonzalez in place, and assume the lineups and bullpen use are more focused on winning than developing young players (or whatever they were doing with James Loney) in September, and this team could have been a 90+ win… Read more »

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birtelcom

11 years ago

Reply to Bryan O'Connor

I agree 100%, Bryan. My thought experiment was merely that: if absolutely everything about the Red Sox had otherwise run exactly the same as it did, with only the two exceptions, normal luck on the pythag side and starting pitching from Lester and Beckett comparable to last year, 85 wins is what you get. As you point out that is certainly not a plausible real-life scenario for how the season would have played out. It was just a way of assessing the direct, first-order consequences of those two circumstances, and was not an attempt to assess any of the inevitable… Read more »

Steven

11 years ago

But those Dodgers also lost Maury Wills, replaced by Gene Michael, and Tommy Davis, replaced by Jim Hickman. Jim Lefebvre, who hit 24 homers in 1966, never again had an injury-free season. Most of the young talent didn’t start showing up until the second half of the 1968 season.

Editor

Doug

11 years ago

Good on Uggla to have reached 19 HR with a shot at 20. That’s quite an accomplishment for a guy who was in as deep a slump as you can get for half the season. From June 6th to Aug 25th, Uggla was .143/.304/.250, with 44 walks but only 32 hits, including 5 HR. Since then, he’s .278/.372/.474, basically the same as he was before the slump (.276/.384/.492).

Tom

11 years ago

Reply to Doug

The fact that Chase Utley just missed this list (199) is a sad testament to his failing knees. From 2005-2009 he averaged 29 home runs a season but has just 38 in the past 3 years combined. Even so, over those last 3 years he’s compiled the 4th most WAR among all 2nd basemen.

bstar

11 years ago

Reply to Doug

It was very unpublicized, but Fredi Gonzalez actually benched Uggla in late August. It was a big deal for Uggla; he was upset (at that point, why?) but stayed professional about it. A couple days later, Uggla got a spot start and immediately looked different. He started lashing doubles down the left field line, making solid contact with regularity, and finally ended his season-long problem with strikeouts seemingly overnight. Uggla’s demotion to the bench lasted only a couple days, and I’ve got to credit Gonzalez for first benching Uggla and then realizing once he was hitting better to put him… Read more »

brp

11 years ago

Sometimes I wonder if I’m the only person left who thinks this but I do belive Bobby V isn’t an inept manager and that the BoSox season isn’t his fault. Those pitching numbers are pretty incredible though.

mosc

11 years ago

Thank you for not putting a decimal place on fielding war. Honestly though, that is the right usage of the stat. Gives a good relative comparison among players at one position. It is less useful as a source of error in a player’s total WAR number. For example, Yadier’s total WAR is under-estimated IMHO.

Lawrence Azrin

11 years ago

Reply to mosc

Mosc, You could generalize that WAR underestimates the total values of _most_ catchers, because it is very difficult statistically to capture a catcher’s defensive value. Another major problem is that (in general) catchers play less games and have less PA over a full season than other positions, because the constant wear-and-tear on their bodies cuts down on their playing time. This doesn’t even factor in that this wear-and-tear often hurts their offensive production. A lot of a catcher’s value is just being there behind the plate; as Casey Stengel once said: “You have to have a catcher because if you… Read more »

bstar

11 years ago

Reply to Lawrence Azrin

There have been recent improvements in evaluating catcher defense. Pitch framing and pitch blocking metrics are now embedded in fWAR, and one of the two (I honestly can’t remember which) is embedded in rWAR.

Author

birtelcom

11 years ago

Reply to mosc

Mosc, the b-ref fielding stat I used in the post is “Rfield” or “Runs From Fielding”, which is denominated in integers — no decimal points. So there were no decimal points to leave out, whether intentionally or unintentionally.

It would be interesting to know in what respect you think Molina’s value is underrated by his WAR.

Doug

11 years ago

Re: “Most hits by a NL player since 2005”.

Testament to Pujols’ dominance is placing 5th on this list in one fewer season than the other guys, and still only 60 hits behind the leader.

Thomas Court

11 years ago

I bought tickets to Friday’s Oriole/Red Sox game for my girlfriend’s birthday because she is a huge Boston fan. She had never been to a Major League game. I bought the tickets a few months ago, because I knew we would be in Maryland area at the end of September. I was able to get great seats at a decent price. They were struggling at the time, but I figured a turn-around was in the cards. Well, since I bought the tickets, the Red Sox have traded Youkilis, Crawford, Beckett and Gonzalez. They have absolutely collapsed. Game day: Big Papi?… Read more »

Larry

11 years ago

The Bad ve the Bad. It is not happened often that a team with 100 losses plays another team with 100 losses. If the Astros beat the Cubs tonite, their next two games together will be just that. I believe that last happened when the Mets and Cubs played late in the ’62 season. I wonder if a 100 loss team has ever handed another team its 100th loss?

Richard Chester

11 years ago

Reply to Larry

On 10-4-23 the 49-102 Phils defeated the 52-99 Braves. There may other instances, it will take while to check them all out.

Author

birtelcom

11 years ago

Reply to Larry

Nice one, Larry, and nice title. To start with here are the years with multiple 100-loss teams in the same league. First the NL 1993: Mets and Padres 1985: Giants and Pirates 1969: first year teams Expos and Padres both finished 52-110 1962: Mets and Cubs 1928 and 1923: Phils and Braves 1908: Dodgers and Cards (a different era: Dodgers and Cards horrible, Cubs and Pirates scrapping for the pennant) 1905: Dodgers and Braves 1898: old, old NL Senators and the Cards (then known as the Browns) Then the AL 2006: Rays and Royals 2002: Rays, Royals and Tigers (three… Read more »

Richard Chester

11 years ago

Reply to Larry

On the morning of 9-30-61 the Senators and A’s were 60-99 each and their last two games of the year were against each other. The Senators won the first one making 100 losses for the A’s. The A’s won the next game making it 100 losses for the Senators.

e pluribus munu

11 years ago

Reply to Richard Chester

Thus deferring until 1962 the advent of a twentieth-century 10th-place team.

Richard Chester

11 years ago

Reply to Richard Chester

Besides the Mets-Cubs game in 1962 the only instances I found (since 1918) of two 100-loss teams at the start of a game were the games between the Phils and the Braves on 10-5-23 and 10-6-23

Timmy Pea

11 years ago

I don’t mean to get off subject this much, but is there any uniform more beautiful than the Chicago Bears? They really are special. Right now the best uniform in baseball belongs to the Baltimore Orioles and their brown jersey with the orange letters with no outline color. I also love the Oakland A’s gold jersey but only with the white pants, it looks strange with the grey pants. The UCLA Bruins probably have the best football uniform in college, followed closely by Georgia, and the Notre Dame green jerseys with the gold numbers. I love Notre Dame since I… Read more »

topper009

11 years ago

Reply to Timmy Pea

There is nothing special about the Bears, the Packers are much better, more unique. I normally hate black as a main uniform color but the Raiders are the exception. The Orioles are very good, maybe the best in baseball. I have to give the Yankees respect in this area. The Dodgers are pretty good. I am obviously bias towards the 80s Brewers. I don’t like UCLA very much, baby blue is not a good football color. I would actually rate USC pretty high, I never liked Notre Dame because it was always baffling to me that they don’t feature green… Read more »

tag

11 years ago

Reply to topper009

Timmy, don’t listen to Topper. The Bears’ uniforms are indeed beautiful: navy and that dark orange are just awesome together. The Packers’, though, are also first rate.

Anyway, both color schemes are stolen from colleges – the Bears’ from Illinois and the Packers’ from ND.

topper009

11 years ago

Reply to tag

And the Georgia G is stolen from Green Bay.

If I had to list the worst uniforms I would go
MLB: Rockies
NFL: Jaguars
NCAAF: Oregon

tag

11 years ago

Reply to topper009

I’d say you were a perfect three for three. All of them are hideous.

Lawrence Azrin

11 years ago

Reply to topper009

All-time worst candidate: Houston Astros of the late 70s/early 80s.

11 years ago

Reply to topper009

@37 There must have been something in the water in the late 70s/early 80s then, as the Valencia soccer team of that era sported a similarly horrible yellow/red combo:

Valenica have recently brought this back as a third kit; here’s hoping the Astros don’t get any ideas.

Lawrence Azrin

11 years ago

Reply to topper009

@38 – I think hat there was an explosion at the crayon factory, and it splattered all over the employees clothes.

Timmy Pea

11 years ago

Reply to topper009

You know what’s funny Lawrence is that I was in little league when the Astro’s wore those uniforms and our coach liked them and ordered some based on that model! Instead of orange being the model color it was many shades of blue and they had collars like the old timers had back in the 19th century. They were ugly but we had a good team.

Timmy Pea

11 years ago

Reply to topper009

I do like the ’80’s Brewers uniforms if you’re talking about the pinstripes they still wear occasionally as an alternate. I also like the Packers uniforms and hope they never change them. You’re also correct about the USC uniforms and I almost put them ahead of Georgia but wanted to move out of LA. The 49’s have great uniforms. Oregon is awful, and those things Nebraska wore last week were hideous! The Yankees uniforms are nice and I always like the old Red Sox away uniforms that had Boston on the front with a real simple font, they don’t have… Read more »

Larry

11 years ago

Thanks for the follow up, guys. Actually on 9-23-1962 the Meta beat the Cubs 2-1 to hand them their 100th loss. Forlorn indeed.

Author

birtelcom

11 years ago

Over October 5 to 7, 1905, Brooklyn and Boston played a 5-game series to end the NL season for both clubs. Brooklyn entered that final series with a 44-103 record (although they were on a three-game winning streak, tied for their longest win streak of the year to that point), while Boston entered the series with a 50-99 record. It is fair to guess that this was not a highly anticipated series. On Thursday, October 5, Brooklyn won the first game of a double-header to send the Beaneaters to their 100th loss of the season. Brooklyn then completed the double-header… Read more »

Jeff

11 years ago

What a testament to Jeff Kent(current Survivor contestant, lol). He has over 70 HR more than the #2 man Sandberg and over 1,500 RBI…HOF worthy???

Lawrence Azrin

11 years ago

Reply to Jeff

I think that Kent is HOF-worthy, roughly as qualified as Roberto Alomar, but there is NO WAY he’s getting in on his first ballot of 2014. There’s going to be an incredible backlog that year, between the stellar new candidates: – Greg Maddux – Frank Thomas – Tommy Glavine – Mike Messina – Luis Gonzalez 2nd year candidates not elected their debut year: – Barry Bonds(no way he gets elected his 1st year) – Roger Clemens (no way he gets elected his 1st year) one or two of these may be ellected their first year, but who knows? – Mike… Read more »

Author

birtelcom

11 years ago

Reply to Jeff

His Wins Above Replacement (b-ref version) career total is at the level of non-HOF guys John Olerud, Jim Wynn and Will Clark. WAR sees his fielding as having been merely adequate at best and his admittedly impressive raw offensive numbers as somewhat inflated currency given the high-scoring era in which he played. He also had a reputation if I remember correctly, as being less than a sterling clubhouse influence. I suspect he will be voted off the Cooperstown island.

Lawrence Azrin

11 years ago

Reply to birtelcom

Kent’s WAR of 51.9 is also in the general range of pretty solid HOFers such as:
– Mickey Cocrane
– Gabby Hartnett
– Jimmy Collins
– Enos Slaughter
– Joe Medwick
– Bill Dickey
– Billy Herman

For mainstream voters, he’s also got the 2000 MVP, 8 100-RBI seasons, and good counting stats in HR, runs, and RBI for a second baseman. He’s no slam-dunk, but he’s got a decent case.

11 years ago

Reply to Lawrence Azrin

Luis Gonzalez is a stellar HOF candidate??? What parallel universe did I wake up in this morning???

topper009

11 years ago

Reply to Ed

I thought the same thing,

– Greg Maddux
– Frank Thomas
– Tommy Glavine
– Mike Mussina
– Luis Gonzalez

Which one of these is not like the others?

Lawrence Azrin

11 years ago

Reply to Ed

I wished to contrast Gonzelez, who had a pretty good career but is a marginal HOF candidate (though there are HOFers who had worse careers than him), with candidates who are obviously much better than him.

The existence of one somewhat questionable future HOF candidate on my list does not invalidate my point that there is going to be a _total_ overload of reasonable HOF candidates in the next few years.

Author

birtelcom

11 years ago

Reply to Lawrence Azrin

Lawrence: In your list of Hall of Famers with career WAR around Kent’s, three are catchers, who can’t generate as much WAR as other guys becasue they don’t play as many games, and three guys who were Veterans Committee additions. The only non-catcher there actually voted in by the writers is Medwick, who accumulated his comparable WAR in about 1,400 fewer PAs than Kent. I acknowledge there are some HOFers around Kent’s WAR level, but it’s low probability territory, and it probably wont help Jeff with voters that he never won a World Series ring.

Larry

11 years ago

If the Astros sweep the Cubs it will mirror how the franchise started out 51 seasons ago. It would also give the Astros an even 4,000 wins as a National League team.

Editor

John Autin

11 years ago

Reply to Larry

Nice find, Larry!

I see that 2 of those first 3 wins were shutouts of the Cubs, as was their 5th win. Two of the 3 shutouts were by Dean Stone.