24 thoughts on “Ryan and Joey – just how good are they?”

1. PP January 28, 2013 at 7:35 am

   Both of these guys were born in ’83, same year as M. Cabrera, Mauer, Pedroia, H. Ramirez, Reyes, Greinke, Hamels, and Verlander. Possibly up to 5 HOFs in that group.

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2. brp January 28, 2013 at 9:33 am

   The initial tables don’t highlight Braun’s baserunning (30+ steals, <10 CS last two years for example), which closes some of the gap caused by Votto's insane OBP. There's no way you can build a top 5 of NL position players without those 2, and it's reasonable to argue putting them 1-2 in some order. BBREF doesn't seem to like Braun's defense either but he's turned into a pretty good OF after a poor start there and an abysmal start at 3B as a rookie.

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   1. Doug Post authorJanuary 28, 2013 at 2:22 pm

      Quite right, brp. Baserunning and Braun’s season’s worth (and a bit) of PAs more than Votto are reflected in his considerably higher career WAR numbers.

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   2. mosc January 29, 2013 at 1:49 pm

      If those traits continue though, they will even out career wise. OBP doesn’t age like baserunning. Votto is just such a hard out. As Braun inevitably slows down, the OBP will catch back up.

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3. Brooklyn MIck January 28, 2013 at 9:43 am

   Doug, the Lefty O’Doul links aren’t working.

   As for Braun and Votto, when I watch them, it “feels” like I’m watching HOFers.

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   1. Richard Chester January 28, 2013 at 10:31 am

      Speaking of O’Doul more than half of his Rbat was accumulated during the two years that Baker Bowl was his home park, 1929 and 1930.

      Does anybody out there know how wRAA is converted to Rbat?

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   2. Artie Z January 28, 2013 at 1:57 pm

      My guess is that it has something to do with apostrophe in O’Doul’s name as there was a similar problem with Paul O’Neill in some other post. It appears that in some part of the transition from the website to the post the link truncates at the apostrophe so instead of:

      http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/o/o'doule01.shtml

      we get:

      http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/o/o

      which I believe was the exact same link that Paul O’Neill had. I

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      1. Doug Post authorJanuary 28, 2013 at 2:24 pm

         Exactly right, Artie. I checked the HTML code and it is correct, but the publishing software we are using is truncating it. Sorry, but nothing I can do about it.

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4. Baltimorechop January 28, 2013 at 9:57 am

   Hope Joey doesn’t have the same problems with FedEx.

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5. John Autin January 28, 2013 at 8:45 pm

   I’m wondering why Votto’s debut was relatively late — September of his age-23 season.

   At 22, he was the best hitter in the AA Southern League, right above Braun in OPS. That was 2006. The Reds were playing Scott Hatteberg at 1B; he hit OK for a 1B, but they had very little money invested in him. But they never gave Votto a look.

   Through 2006, Votto had about 600 minor-league games, and his ability was pretty clear. But they kept him at AAA until September 2007, while continuing to play the 37-year-old, moderately productive Hatteberg.

   His first MLB start, he went 3-3, HR, BB, and he hasn’t slowed since. I think they left some value on the table in ’07.

   And considering they’ve now committed a king’s ransom in gold, it’s hard to see the point in saving a year of arb eligibility, or whatever the rationale was.

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   1. Artie Z. January 28, 2013 at 10:01 pm

      Looking at Votto’s minor league record it appears as if the Reds were trying to turn him into an outfielder in 2007 as he played 40 games in LF and 2 games in RF for Louisville that year. I have a recollection (which may be completely wrong) that the Reds wanted to put Votto in the OF and move Dunn to 1B. Other than a few games when he was 18, 2007 is the only year in which Votto played the outfield (he played a few games in the majors as an outfielder as well).

      So that may be why they kept him in the minors, so that he could learn a new position.

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      1. John Autin January 29, 2013 at 10:08 am

         Thanks, Artie Z.

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      2. mosc January 29, 2013 at 12:47 pm

         Seems like this is the case for a lot of first basemen. Even Joey f-ing Votto who destroyed the minor leagues had resistance to the show due to being stuck at first base. Some of the career WAR adjustments by position should really keep this in mind already. First basemen as a whole come up late. Most teams have a guy in AAA right now with an average MLB bat (above replacement) that they’re not calling up for fielding reasons. AAA in particular, where guys are often on the 40 man roster, I wonder how many of the all time single season leaders in HR’s are first basemen. Most other positions, the guy is going to get a phone call before he’s racking up that many.

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6. mosc January 29, 2013 at 12:59 pm

   What about some Braun steroid discussion? I mean, his 2012 numbers compared to his 2011 numbers, I ain’t seeing a medical difference at work there. I have long believed that what actually happened to Braun has not yet come to light. He has hinted at such with comments like “my teammates know what really happened and that’s enough”.

   I think it goes something like, dude gets herpies and gets a perscription for some topical steroids. Dude does not follow the correct notification procedures for taking a banned substance because he thought a doctor’s permission makes everything OK. Dude tells league about condition and Doctor only after Positive test comes out. League says too late, you didn’t tell us by our rules so no medical exemption. Guy gets off on technicality for drugs but really he should just have been lightly repremanded for not following the correct notification procedures. Dude has herpies, which is none of our business so is OK with “technicality” putting this all to rest… and topical steroids for treating herpes don’t give you HR power.

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   1. Doug Post authorJanuary 29, 2013 at 1:07 pm

      Whatever the particulars, the fact that Braun won his appeal quickly suggests to me that the explanation was innocent. If the technicality was less innocent, I suspect the appeal process would have been more drawn out.

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7. Mike L January 29, 2013 at 3:49 pm

   To Mosc’s point @13, and Doug’s at 14, it looks like we have new PED allegations against several players, including A-Rod, Nelson Cruz, Gio Gonzales, Melky. At this point, if MLB can’t find a way to deal with this issue, I may have to re-think my opposition to Bonds and Clemens. Let them all juice and we can just acknowledge that the numbers produced have the credibility of professional wrestling.

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   1. topper009 January 29, 2013 at 10:54 pm

      Professional wrestling?

      If you are so convinced taking steroids magically makes you a hall of famer please explain
      1) Why the entire league wide power increased from 92-93? Did all the players get together and decide to uniformly take steroids at the same rate and all increase HR% etc.

      2) Why do pitchers who get Tommy John Surgery get a pass? I mean what is the real issue with steroids? That players have some advantage over the old timers and their numbers cant be fairly compared, or they are doing things beyond natural human capabilities? But having a surgery to magically revitalize your dead elbow is not an unfair advantage over Sandy Koufax and is totally natural thing we have been doing since we lived in caves?

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      1. Mike L January 29, 2013 at 11:17 pm

         Topper, with all due respect, I didn’t say that steroids make you a Hall of Famer. Players take them because they think they improve performance, and that is indisputable.
         We’ve just come off a very detailed and well reasoned discussion about steroids in “1962” done far more eloquently than I can by other posters, on both sides of the aisle, so I defer to them.

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8. bstar January 29, 2013 at 6:48 pm

   It’s amazing how much starting early in your career can make a huge difference in your counting stats. Look at two of the recent greats (Cabrera, Pujols) who started early and compare them to the relatively late-starting Braun and Votto. I’ll use data from start of career to age-28 season, which is where Ryan and Joey are right now:

   Cabrera – 1597 H / 277 HR / 984 RBI / 346 2B / 37.5 WAR
   APujols – 1531 H / 319 HR / 977 RBI / 342 2B / 62.1 WAR

   R Braun – 1089 H / 202 HR / 643 RBI / 223 2B / 32.0 WAR
   J Votto – 822 H / 133 HR / 457 RBI / 197 2B / 26.2 WAR

   I used doubles because these four players are all great doubles hitters. Pujols and Cabrera have the best chance to advance past 650-700 doubles, but they will have to keep putting up great numbers into their late thirties to make a serious run at Tris Speaker’s 792 career mark. For what its worth, Pujols has more doubles thru his age-32 season than anyone in history except Joe Medwick, while Cabrera is three years and 119 doubles behind Albert.

   Braun and Votto, as Doug mentioned, have great doubles-hitting rates, but it’s pretty unlikely they are going to place super high on the all-time list for doubles because of their late starts. Braun and Votto are both only 6 or 7 months younger than Cabrera but over 160 doubles behind Miggy.

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   1. Doug Post authorJanuary 30, 2013 at 2:56 am

      It is remarkable how much difference one or two years makes.

      I remember a study Bill James did back in the 80s. He compared two groups of players who both had very similar stats to start their careers. Only difference between the groups was starting age. In his analysis the group starting at age 21 would produce 50% more career value (think area under the curve) than the age 22 starters.

      James himself admitted that, at first, he didn’t believe the result and assumed he must have made an error. But, it was no error. Earlier start means higher peak means longer decline phase before dropping below replacement value.

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9. topper009 January 29, 2013 at 11:14 pm

   Also Braun was hit by a pitch in the wrist in this game, mid 2009, by Tommy Hanson who was being a little baby because Braun took him deep twice in his career debut.

   Up to this game for his career Braun was at
   454 G, 2012 PA, 109 HR, 345 RBI .312/.369/.575

   he then sat out 3 games and continued on with < 100% wrist, and for the next 70 games put up a line of 302 PA, 10 HR, .235/.269/.400

   If you remove these games from Braun's career line he is at
   3552 PA, 3192 AB, 1022 H, 192 HR, 607 RBI, .320/.383/.583/.966

   Yes I know everyone plays with injuries but this period was much longer with production much lower his career norms. Braun has missed some time here and there but has never gone on the DL which Votto has done several times I think.

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   1. brp January 30, 2013 at 11:04 am

      Yep. As to the Braun’s baserunning slowing down, perhaps, but Braun at 35 will probably be a better runner than Votto is now, and I truly think he’ll continue to get better in the OF until he does start to slow down. And while OBP doesn’t “age,” that also means Braun could definitely improve his OBP. If nothing else, not having Prince around has skyrocketed his IBBs (from < 5 every year to 15 last season).

      Can't go wrong with either player, of course.

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      1. mosc January 30, 2013 at 11:36 am

         Votto’s got better plate coverage, a better eye, better bat speed, etc. He is simply the hardest guy in baseball to get out and I don’t think there’s that close a second. Braun has a bigger swing, certainly faster by a wide margin, and plays a slightly more demanding position. Don’t get me wrong, I’d probably rather have Braun. That said, I don’t think we’re going to see a better OBP player than Votto unless somebody re-signs Barry.

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10. Tim Pea February 1, 2013 at 5:46 pm

    Ryan Braun is a PED user, he’s dead to me. Votto is the best hitter in baseball. I’m usually prejudice against non-Americans but stats don’t lie.

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