What goes around comes around: guys who scored most often when getting on base

I posted this list in the comments to an earlier thread, but it really seems to deserve its own post.

Here are the players since 1901 who scored the highest percentage of time once reaching base (including reaching on error) with a minimum of 4000 career plate appearances.

1	Red Rolfe	48.8%
2	Jack Smith	47.2%
3	Pepper Martin	46.9%
4	Earle Combs	46.5%
5	Tommy Leach	45.3%
6	Joe DiMaggio	45.2%
7	C Granderson	45.2%
8	Ian Kinsler	44.4%
9	Lou Gehrig	44.2%
10	Hughie Critz	44.0%
11	Ray Chapman	44.0%
12	Tom Goodwin	43.7%
13	Babe Ruth	43.7%
14	Tommy Henrich	43.7%
15	C Gehringer	43.5%
16	Chuck Klein	43.4%
17	Kenny Lofton	43.3%
18	Earl Averill	43.3%
19	Alex Rodriguez	43.0%
20	Fred Clarke	42.9%
21	Donie Bush	42.8%
22	Vince Coleman	42.7%
23	F Lindstrom	42.7%
24	Kiki Cuyler	42.6%
25	Bobby  Bonds	42.6%
26	Bill Cissell	42.6%
27	Jimmie Foxx	42.6%
28	Pete Fox	42.5%
29	Jimmy Rollins	42.5%
30	Ron Gant	42.5%

This is quite an eclectic group, huh?

The research was sparked by reader kds noticing that Kenny Lofton had a very high percentage, and indeed he clocks in at #17. Some other leadoff-type speedsters make it too, with Bobby Bonds, Vince Coleman, Tom Goodwin(!), Jimmy Rollins, and others. Then there are other guys with a lot of home runs–obviously that’s an automatic 1-for-1 in terms of scoring when reaching base–Babe Ruth, Alex Rodriguez, Jimmy Foxx, etc.

I’m sure there’s a lot more we can glean from this…have at it.

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Richard Chester
Richard Chester
11 years ago

And it certainly didn’t hurt Charlie Gehringer to bat just ahead of Hank Greenberg.

Brent
Brent
11 years ago

And I would venture a guess that Red Rolfe got to bat 2nd in front of Gehrig, Dimaggio, Dickey and Lazzeri

birtelcom
Editor
11 years ago

Note that a player can be credited for a Run Scored (goes into the numerator of the ratio you are calculating) without necessarily being credited for a Time On Base (your denominator). That happens when a hitter ends up safe at first on a fielder’s choice play that results in an out at another base, and then later comes around to score. For example, Ian Kinsler in this game got credit for one Run Scored, but no Times on Base: http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/OAK/OAK200909210.shtml

Brent
Brent
11 years ago

Hmm, I guess we have some threshold of times on base right? Because otherwise, I think the leader is Herb Washington, who I am pretty sure has an unbeatable % of infinity.

Richard Chester
Richard Chester
11 years ago
Reply to  Andy

Andy, you did mention 4000 PA just above the top the chart.

brp
brp
11 years ago

Isn’t this pretty much a list of guys who played on good offenses and/or in high-scoring eras?

brp
brp
11 years ago
Reply to  brp

Vince Coleman seems like an outlier on my comment, though… 1980s Cardinals were good but not offensive juggernauts by any means. Tom Goodwin also.

So this captures the first two, and also super speedy guys with marginal OBA ability. Definitely makes the mix more interesting.

bstar
bstar
11 years ago
Reply to  brp

Although the ’80s Cards weren’t offensive juggernauts overall, they were increbibly effective at scoring 1 run at a time and getting that crucial first run in the game. Bill James discusses in length here how stolen bases often are effective at scoring one run but can limit big innings: “…If a batter attempts to steal second and is successful, he increases his own chance of scoring a run, but does almost nothing to increase the chance that any other player will score. If he attempts to steal and is thrown out, however, this decreases not only his own chance of… Read more »

spudart
11 years ago

Oops. I think you are linking to the wrong Jack Smith. Your link goes to a pitcher of three years who has a career total of one hit, zero walks. I believe you wanted to link to this Jack Smith: http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/smithja03.shtml

RJ
RJ
11 years ago
Reply to  spudart

Not to mention zero runs scored. 🙂

BryanM
BryanM
11 years ago

Andy , you’ve hit a nerve with me; I have long contended that the ability to score runs is the central skill in offensive baseball, ever since Earl Weaver told me so in 1970 ,and in evaluating players I probably look at the R column more than almost any other commenter on this site. If you subtract HR from both the numerator and denominator of your stat, you get something close to BRefs RS% not the same , but close — and over a long career, I think it can be used with care to get some idea of “base… Read more »

John Autin
Editor
11 years ago
Reply to  BryanM

Reminds me of an old B-R blog post about Paulie K….
http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/14813

On the bright side, he improved substantially in that respect last year, only finishing near the bottom of the regulars, instead of on his own island.

RJ
RJ
11 years ago
Reply to  John Autin

JA, that article has always been one of my favourites, purely for the immortal lines identifying the culprits as “his teammates” and “himself”.

John Autin
Editor
11 years ago
Reply to  BryanM

Also, BryanM — FWIW, B-R’s rating of -30 runs for Konerko’s baserunning does make him 7th-worst ever (data measured since around 1970, I think). And his combination of -68 runs for GIDPs+baserunning is the absolute worst.

That certainly doesn’t prove that they’re capturing his full cost, but it suggests they’re on the right track.

P.S. Per game, the all-time worst in Rbaser — by a wide margin — is Prince Fielder, at -4.3 runs per 162 games. Next-worst is -3.6.

RJ
RJ
11 years ago
Reply to  John Autin

How can I check the all-time rankings for this? I want to see how Bengie Molina’s -3 per 162 games fares.

BryanM
BryanM
11 years ago
Reply to  John Autin

the threat of speed puts pressure on the defense, as atl pointed out, but I was mostly struck by another aspect watching Paul Molitor 20 years ago- on a BIP , he was always 2 steps further down the line than you would have expected , leading to more advances on outs, fewer DP (helping the WAR of guys batting behind him) and more runs….. We could say that Whitey Herzog had a point as the theme of this thread…

BryanM
BryanM
11 years ago
Reply to  John Autin

John, I am sure that bref has the stats directionally right; Prince is another example , I just suspect the distribution is compressed , so the guys on both extremes get more (or less) credit than they deserve. Additionally, the effect is more pronounced as the players age; Just as Tom Seaver found a different way to be effective at 36 than he was at 26, older players who once had plus speed use skill to minimize basepath outs, while at the other end, old Catchers, God bless em, get slower and slower – they have no BR stats, since… Read more »

bstar
bstar
11 years ago
Reply to  BryanM

FWIW Bryan, I thought of you and your work from a year ago on here when I read Andy’s post.

Atlcrackersfan
Atlcrackersfan
11 years ago
Reply to  BryanM

While this is as eclectic a group as I’ve seen in a while, the comment about the sabr community believing old baseball men overvalued speed struck a chord. I don’t think the stats guys fully know how, nor does the data exist in some manner, to fully account for the impact of speed. Stealing bases or taking the extra base can be captured. It’s other manners where speed stresses the pitcher and defense that are hard to measure: extra throws to hold a runner distracting the pitcher; pitchers changing their delivery slightly to hurry the throw to the plate; catchers… Read more »

Voomo Zanzibar
11 years ago
Reply to  Atlcrackersfan

I agree completely. Also, to continue a discussion from last week, consider ops+, a now-standard sabermetric measuring tool. Using ops+, a player who hits a double is “more valuable” than the player who walks and steals second. The walk and steal cannot Drive In a run, no. But consider the immeasurable differences in the following scenarios involving the First Batter of the Game: 1. Double on the first pitch, or… 2. 8 pitch walk, then three throws over to 1st trying to hold that runner, and then the runner steals 2nd. In the first case, the pitcher has a bad… Read more »

Voomo Zanzibar
11 years ago
Reply to  Voomo Zanzibar

“immeasurable” should probably read “un-measurable”

Ed
Ed
11 years ago
Reply to  Voomo Zanzibar

Voomo – Einstein said “not everything that can be counted counts and not everything that counts can be counted”. As wonderful as a stat like WAR is, there are certain things that it just can’t capture and probably never will. There are psychological effects as you mentioned (the difference between having Kenny Lofton on first and having Paul Konerko on first for example) as well as physical effects (for example, WAR treats all strikeouts the same but a three pitch strikeout is obviously much less tiring than a 10 pitch strikeout).

John Autin
Editor
11 years ago
Reply to  Voomo Zanzibar

… meanwhile, the batter takes a strike or two to let the speedster steal, and finds himself behind in the count.

I’m not dismissing the hidden benefits of speed. But there are also hidden costs.

Voomo Zanzibar
11 years ago
Reply to  John Autin

And there’s also the times when the announcer says that the batter swung “to protect the runner”. I never understood that concept. Does it mean that the batter is swinging with the intent to miss completely, but his swing is supposed to somehow mess with the catcher? What is going on when that happens? Is the team trying to steal a base or not?

Bryan O'Connor
Editor
11 years ago
Reply to  Atlcrackersfan

So you’re saying we should have talked more about Mike Trout this year?

BryanM
BryanM
11 years ago
Reply to  Bryan O'Connor

yeah , Ian Kinsler too..

GrandyMan
GrandyMan
11 years ago

(Semi-)Relevant Factoids: I wasn’t too familiar with Tommy Leach before seeing his name on this list. Turns out he is one of two players to have four seasons with a) 10 doubles, and b) more triples than doubles; the other isn’t hard to guess. Only four players have even done this once in the live-ball era. Leach is one of 12 players meeting the criteria here (4000 PA since 1901) having at least 8 percent of his hits as triples. Two others, Combs and Clarke, are also on this list. Combs is the only of the 12 to be a… Read more »

Richard Chester
Richard Chester
11 years ago

Taking it to a seasonal level;
Pepper Martin…1935…61.7%
Al Simmons……1930…60.6%
Tommy Leach…..1909…57.0%
Joe DiMaggio….1936…56.4%
Mark Koenig…..1927…55.9%
Jack Smith……1922…55.4%
Jack Smith……1924…55.2%

Gary Bateman
Gary Bateman
11 years ago

Simmons in 1930 had more Runs + RBI – HR (281) than times on base (251). He’s the only player I have found to do this.

Richard Chester
Richard Chester
11 years ago
Reply to  Gary Bateman

I found three seasons which came close, there may be others.

Al Simmons, 1932, with R + RBI – HR = 260 and TOB = 264. Joe DiMaggio in 1936 had 228 vs. 234 and in 1937 had 279 vs. 284.

Doug
Editor
11 years ago
Reply to  Gary Bateman

Also close are:
– Al Simmons 1929, TOB = 244, R+RBI-HR = 237
– Maurice Van Robays 1940, 192, 187
– Bill Keister 1901, 171, 169

Lawrence Azrin
Lawrence Azrin
11 years ago
Reply to  Gary Bateman

If you go pre-1901, you have Ed Delahanty, 1894:
Runs + RBI – HR = 277, TOB = 267

no statistician but
no statistician but
11 years ago

Andy:

I wouldn’t mind seeing this stat laid out by decade—that is, the top, oh, five, let’s say, for the Twenties, Thirties, Forties, etc. The list as it stands points mainly to power hitters and speedy lead-off guys from higher scoring eras. What was going on otherwise? Like in the Fifties and Sixties?

Richard Chester
Richard Chester
11 years ago

Here’s a list of the number of players with a R/TOB ratio of more than 40% by decade (3000 PA min.):

1900s….13
1910s….10
1920s….29
1930s….43
1940s….11
1950s….8
1960s….4
1970s….6
1980s….10
1990s….24
2000s….26

brp
brp
11 years ago

This goes to my point about high-offense eras… the 1930s, 1990s, and 2000s stick out glaringly. And the lead-footed 1950s and pitching-dominated 1960s fall in line.

Surprised at the 1980s though with all the speed merchants.

no statistician but
no statistician but
11 years ago
Reply to  brp

It looks to me as if the major factor may be average runs scored per game. In every year from 1921 to 1940 and 1993 to 2009 teams averaged above 4.5 runs per game, whereas only three years from 1952 to 1992 showed that level of scoring. Somebody had to score those runs. As for your comment on the lead-footed 1950s, I have to disagree. The stolen base was simply not a priority strategy during that era. If it had been, Mantle—timed, I believe, as the fastest runner of the era—would have tripled his SB totals. The true lead-foot era,… Read more »

brp
brp
11 years ago

Yes, you’re correct in that there were certainly many fast players in the 1950s but I was alluding to a complete lack of the SB as a weapon. It does seem very few teams hit-and-run nowadays, but given the contact rates of hitters in the modern game, can you blame anyone?

Voomo Zanzibar
11 years ago

Hughie Critz
73 ops+
38 HR
97 SB

Scored 93 runs for the 1930 Giants with an ops+ of 58, 32 XBH, and 7 SB
.265 .296 .357 .652

The Giants scored 958 runs, and Critz was their Leadoff Hitter !

In the 2, 3, 4, 5 spots were:

Leach
.327 .361 .482 .843

Lindstrom
.379 .425 .575 .999

Terry
.401 .452 .619 1.071

Ott
.349 .458 .578 1.036

GrandyMan
GrandyMan
11 years ago
Reply to  Voomo Zanzibar

Looking at some box scores for that season, I am baffled by McGraw’s apparent disdain for the leadoff spot. I think using Leach as the main leadoff guy instead of Jackson early in the year is questionable, but within reason. Also using Doc Marshall there is silly, and then dropping Jackson to seventh after picking up Critz is simply inexplicable.

RBI Man
RBI Man
11 years ago
Reply to  GrandyMan

Very odd. Critz easily had the lowest OBP of any Giants and he bats leadoff the entire year? This is odd to me because I’ve sited John McGraw numerous times as a old-schooler who understood the importance of OBP due to his monsterous .466 career OBP as a player and his teams always being near the top in that category as a manager.

I guess McGraw expected Critz to be better based on him being 2nd, 4th and 17th in the MVP vote in three of the previous four years.

Doug
Editor
11 years ago
Reply to  Voomo Zanzibar

Or Donie Bush in 1911. 126 runs scored with 1 HR, 24 XBH and a 75 OPS+. It was Bush’s 3rd straight season leading the AL in walks (he would do so 4 straight years and 5 out of 6). Bush is the first of only 28 players since 1901 with 10 or more seasons of 80+ runs and 70+ walks. Of those 28 players, these are the ones who compiled OPS+ under 100 in any of those 80 Run, 70 BB seasons. Rk Yrs From To Age 1 Donie Bush 7 1911 1920 23-32 Ind. Seasons 2 Pee Wee… Read more »

Lawrence Azrin
Lawrence Azrin
11 years ago
Reply to  Doug

Bush scored 126 runs in 1911 mainly because both Cobb and Crawford had fantastic years – the best slugging %’s of their careers; Jim Delahanty also had a very good yeaer.

Voomo Zanzibar
11 years ago
Reply to  Lawrence Azrin

“Fantastic” is rarely an understatement.
For Cobb ’11 it is just that.

Voomo Zanzibar
11 years ago

A common old-school notion seems to be that the 2nd baseman is the leadoff guy, period. Look at Ralph Houk. Rookie Manager in 1961 He did pretty well, won 109 games. The ops+ of his starting 8: 67 90 167 206 115 113 153 79 That’s Bobby Richardson at the top. And his line of .261 .295 .316 .610 25 xbh was enhanced by a running game of 9 SB 7 CS Can’t argue with 109 wins, I suppose. Though Houk did shift gears and moved Richardson to the 2-hole for the rest of his career a month into the… Read more »

RBI Man
RBI Man
11 years ago
Reply to  Voomo Zanzibar

Besides Mantle, that team couldn’t run. 28 SB and 18 CS. In terms of OBP, there really weren’t any other choices for the one and two hole (Richardson and Kubek). Except for Mantle, Maris and Elston Howard the entire team was around .300 OBP so Houk batted the HR hitters 3-8.