Free agency and the Yankees “formula” for success

As of the end of the 2012 season, there were 200 hitters since 1901 with a career bWAR score of 43 or higher, and 98 pitchers at or above the same WAR level for the same period. Of those 298 players, eight were featured on the roster of the 2012 Yankees, the 11th straight year the Yankees have led the major leagues in having the most such players on one team. In fact, the fewest such players the Yankees have featured in any of those 11 years is 6 in 2011, a figure exceeded in the period only by the 2004 Astros (and, of course, the other 10 Yankee clubs).

One would expect teams to do well when stocked with high career WAR players (or players who will go on to accumulate high career WAR). After all, such players must be doing something right and will probably be a help to your ball club at just about any point in their careers (with the possible exception of the very beginning or very end of a career). Sure enough, the Yankees have been a perennial contender for the past 11 years but yet have recorded just one world championship, something of a drought by Yankee standards.

So, what’s gone wrong with the Yankees’ formula for success? More after the jump.


Note that I started this article some time ago, but never got around to finishing it. With the recent “harmonization” of bWAR and fWAR, I would have to start over with it. Well, I’m interested in this topic, but probably not THAT interested. Anyway, here is the piece as far as I got with it, using bWAR prior to the recent changes to align with fWAR.

To investigate this question, I first looked at teams that had a significant number of such hitters or pitchers on their rosters. I arbitrarily defined “significant” as having 3 or more hitters of the top 200, or 2 or more pitchers of the top 98 making up our two lists. My reasoning is a core of better talent like that should be reflected in better results for such teams. Those numbers, 200 and 98, also seem to ring true since the bulk of a team’s WAR will likely come from its top 8 position regulars plus its top 4 starters, the same 2:1 ratio between hitters and pitchers.

The teams most festooned with such proven talent are listed below. Note that, for recent teams (especially the past 10 years), the numbers may be under-represented compared to earlier clubs as some current players may not yet have compiled adequate WAR and thus are not yet counted.

Year
Team
Total
Hitters
Pitchers
2006 New York Yankees 10 Bobby Abreu / Johnny Damon / Jason Giambi / Derek Jeter / Alex Rodriguez / Gary Sheffield / Bernie Williams Randy Johnson / Mike Mussina / Mariano Rivera
2004 New York Yankees 10 Jason Giambi / Derek Jeter / Kenny Lofton / John Olerud / Alex Rodriguez / Gary Sheffield / Bernie Williams Kevin Brown / Mike Mussina / Mariano Rivera
1997 New York Yankees 10 Wade Boggs / Derek Jeter / Tim Raines / Bernie Williams David Cone / Dwight Gooden / Andy Pettitte / Mariano Rivera / Kenny Rogers / David Wells
1996 New York Yankees 10 Wade Boggs / Derek Jeter / Tim Raines / Bernie Williams David Cone / Dwight Gooden / Jimmy Key / Andy Pettitte / Mariano Rivera / Kenny Rogers
2008 New York Yankees 9 Bobby Abreu / Johnny Damon / Jason Giambi / Derek Jeter / Alex Rodriguez / Ivan Rodriguez Mike Mussina / Andy Pettitte / Mariano Rivera
2007 New York Yankees 9 Bobby Abreu / Johnny Damon / Jason Giambi / Derek Jeter / Alex Rodriguez Roger Clemens / Mike Mussina / Andy Pettitte / Mariano Rivera
2005 New York Yankees 9 Jason Giambi / Derek Jeter / Alex Rodriguez / Gary Sheffield / Bernie Williams Kevin Brown / Randy Johnson / Mike Mussina / Mariano Rivera
2003 New York Yankees 9 Jason Giambi / Derek Jeter / Robin Ventura / Bernie Williams Roger Clemens / Mike Mussina / Andy Pettitte / Mariano Rivera / David Wells
2002 New York Yankees 9 Jason Giambi / Derek Jeter / Robin Ventura / Bernie Williams Roger Clemens / Mike Mussina / Andy Pettitte / Mariano Rivera / David Wells
1928 Philadelphia Athletics 9 Ty Cobb / Mickey Cochrane / Eddie Collins / Jimmie Foxx / Al Simmons / Tris Speaker Lefty Grove / Jack Quinn / Eddie Rommel
1927 Philadelphia Athletics 9 Ty Cobb / Mickey Cochrane / Eddie Collins / Jimmie Foxx / Al Simmons / Zack Wheat Lefty Grove / Jack Quinn / Eddie Rommel
1992 Toronto Blue Jays 9 Roberto Alomar / Jeff Kent / John Olerud / Devon White / Dave Winfield David Cone / Jimmy Key / Dave Stieb / David Wells
1996 Cleveland Indians 8 Brian Giles / Jeff Kent / Kenny Lofton / Eddie Murray / Manny Ramirez / Jim Thome Orel Hershiser / Dennis Martinez
1995 Cleveland Indians 8 Brian Giles / Kenny Lofton / Eddie Murray / Manny Ramirez / Jim Thome / Dave Winfield Orel Hershiser / Dennis Martinez
2004 Houston Astros 8 Jeff Bagwell / Carlos Beltran / Lance Berkman / Craig Biggio / Jeff Kent Roger Clemens / Roy Oswalt / Andy Pettitte
2012 New York Yankees 8 Derek Jeter / Andruw Jones / Alex Rodriguez / Ichiro Suzuki / Mark Teixeira Andy Pettitte / Mariano Rivera / CC Sabathia
1979 New York Yankees 8 Reggie Jackson / Thurman Munson / Graig Nettles / Willie Randolph / Roy White Ron Guidry / Tommy John / Luis Tiant

So, stockpiling mostly older, proven talent is a relatively, recent phenomenon. Which makes sense, since it would be pretty hard to do outside of the free agent era (though Connie Mack may beg to differ). What’s notable also is that only one club in the free agency era has been doing this with regularity (which also makes sense, given how expensive it is to construct a roster in this way).

Of these 17 clubs, there are three WS winners and one other pennant winners. Nice, but probably not as nice as the clubs were expecting with these rosters. Let’s move down the list a bit further.

Year
Tm
Total
Hitters
Pitchers
1997 Atlanta Braves 7 Andruw Jones / Chipper Jones / Kenny Lofton / Fred McGriff Tom Glavine / Greg Maddux / John Smoltz
1978 Boston Red Sox 7 Dwight Evans / Carlton Fisk / Fred Lynn / Jim Rice / Carl Yastrzemski Dennis Eckersley / Luis Tiant
1977 Boston Red Sox 7 Dwight Evans / Carlton Fisk / Fred Lynn / Jim Rice / Carl Yastrzemski Fergie Jenkins / Luis Tiant
1976 Boston Red Sox 7 Dwight Evans / Carlton Fisk / Fred Lynn / Jim Rice / Carl Yastrzemski Fergie Jenkins / Luis Tiant
1974 Boston Red Sox 7 Dwight Evans / Carlton Fisk / Fred Lynn / Jim Rice / Carl Yastrzemski Juan Marichal / Luis Tiant
1985 California Angels 7 Rod Carew / Brian Downing / Bobby Grich / Reggie Jackson / Devon White Tommy John / Don Sutton
1982 California Angels 7 Rod Carew / Brian Downing / Bobby Grich / Reggie Jackson / Fred Lynn Tommy John / Luis Tiant
1979 California Angels 7 Bert Campaneris / Rod Carew / Willie Davis / Brian Downing / Bobby Grich Nolan Ryan / Frank Tanana
1932 Chicago Cubs 7 Kiki Cuyler / Stan Hack / Gabby Hartnett / Billy Herman / Rogers Hornsby Burleigh Grimes / Bobo Newsom
2010 New York Yankees 7 Lance Berkman / Derek Jeter / Alex Rodriguez / Mark Teixeira Andy Pettitte / Mariano Rivera / CC Sabathia
2009 New York Yankees 7 Johnny Damon / Derek Jeter / Alex Rodriguez / Mark Teixeira Andy Pettitte / Mariano Rivera / CC Sabathia
1998 New York Yankees 7 Derek Jeter / Tim Raines / Bernie Williams David Cone / Andy Pettitte / Mariano Rivera / David Wells
1995 New York Yankees 7 Wade Boggs / Derek Jeter / Bernie Williams David Cone / Jimmy Key / Andy Pettitte / Mariano Rivera
1988 New York Yankees 7 Jack Clark / Jose Cruz / Rickey Henderson / Willie Randolph / Dave Winfield Ron Guidry / Tommy John
1981 New York Yankees 7 Reggie Jackson / Graig Nettles / Willie Randolph / Dave Winfield Ron Guidry / Tommy John / Rick Reuschel
1980 New York Yankees 7 Reggie Jackson / Graig Nettles / Willie Randolph Ron Guidry / Tommy John / Gaylord Perry / Luis Tiant
1928 New York Yankees 7 Bill Dickey / Lou Gehrig / Tony Lazzeri / Babe Ruth Stan Coveleski / Waite Hoyt / Urban Shocker
1930 Philadelphia Athletics 7 Mickey Cochrane / Eddie Collins / Jimmie Foxx / Al Simmons Lefty Grove / Jack Quinn / Eddie Rommel
1929 Philadelphia Athletics 7 Mickey Cochrane / Eddie Collins / Jimmie Foxx / Al Simmons Lefty Grove / Jack Quinn / Eddie Rommel
1964 San Francisco Giants 7 Orlando Cepeda / Willie Mays / Willie McCovey / Duke Snider Juan Marichal / Gaylord Perry / Billy Pierce
1989 Texas Rangers 7 Buddy Bell / Rafael Palmeiro / Sammy Sosa Kevin Brown / Jamie Moyer / Kenny Rogers / Nolan Ryan

Getting beyond the immediate past, though still mostly in the free agent era. But, less obviously a result of stockpiling aging but proven talent. Clearly, these teams seem to have more players in or closer to their primes than the clubs at the top of the list. Thus, their results are also better: 5 WS winners and two other pennant winners.

Thus, it would seem then that quantity can make you highly competitive, even with stars who are past their primeĀ  (as the Yankees show just about every year). But, when it comes to championships, quality will trump quantity.

Here are the results summarized by franchise, showing occurrences of 3 or more of our target hitters, 2 or more pitchers, or both at once.

[table id=89 /]

 

No matter how you look at the table, the Yankees stand out. Which is as you would expect – the most successful franchise has most often had the most top players on its roster. But there are some surprises:

  • as mentioned above, only one WS title (and one other pennant) since 2002, despite making the table in pitchers and hitters every year
  • Yankees had 3 or more 43 WAR hitters every year in the 1973 to 1988 period, but just two WS titles (and two other pennants) over those 16 years
  • Yankees never had 2 or more 43 WAR pitchers in any season from 1940 to 1978, but still managed 14 WS titles (and 7 other pennants) over those 39 seasons

Some other thoughts:

  • Hard to fathom that the Reds have never had a team with 3 hitters and 2 pitchers from our lists
  • Maybe even harder to grasp is the Pirates not having even one team with either 3 hitters or 2 pitchers, since 1947
  • Maybe good pitching doesn’t beat good hitting? Look at the imbalance for the Cards and Reds, especially their lack of teams with 2+ pitchers, but with a goodly number of teams with 3+ hitters they’ve managed to have periods of success.
  • The Red Sox seem to be the real underachievers, given the talent they’ve compiled on a consistent basis. But, the Bombers have been even better at the stockpiling game.
  • The Twins/Senators have really cashed in the few times the “stars have been aligned” for them
  • How did the 1960s Giants manage to win only one pennant?

Your thoughts.

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Ed
Ed
11 years ago

There have been a slew of articles recently about the changing nature of the free agent market. Namely how the long-term contracts given to Verlander, Posey, Votto, etc. effect the talent acquisition plans of large market teams such as the Yankees, Red Sox and Dodgers among others.

http://www.grantland.com/blog/the-triangle/post/_/id/56604/verlander-posey-and-the-death-of-free-agency

http://www.baseballnation.com/2013/4/2/4172158/mlb-free-agents-2014-death-robinson-cano

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-evolution-of-free-agency/

Artie Z
Artie Z
11 years ago
Reply to  Ed

I really wonder how this is going to turn out for those teams that are signing their stars to long term contracts into their mid-late 30s (I’m thinking of Mauer and Ryan Howard and even Wainwright in addition to the ones you mention). While on the surface it seems like these teams are doing what the early 1990s Indians did, most of the core (Thome, Belle, Baerga, Manny, even Lofton though they resigned him) of those mid-late 90s Indians teams was gone once they hit 30 years old. Unless of course these teams can somehow wash themselves clean of these… Read more »

Fireworks
Fireworks
11 years ago

JA you don’t address the crapshoot nature of the postseason in the wild card era. The Yankees needed only field the best team instead the league for their first 20 championships and then win one short series. Now, being the fourth-best or best doesn’t change that you have to win three series, one of them shorter than normal (allowing an inferior team with the most dominant pitcher to prevail more easily). That doesn’t mean that I dont find your conclusion to be valid–teams that sign (previously) productive player as free agents are usually paying for what he did instead of… Read more »

Fireworks
Fireworks
11 years ago

Sorry Doug. I naturally assumed that since it was a “negative” post about the Yankees that it was by JA.

Bryan O'Connor
Editor
11 years ago

Of course, the difference between the 2012 Yankees and most of the teams on this list is that their eight players had their 43 WAR *before* the season started. On one hand, that suggests you’re underrating the Yankees, since Cano will get to 43 WAR, Granderson has a chance, and it’s possible that there’ s a young player on the roster who will surprise. On the other hand, few players reach that benchmark before their mid-30s, which suggests that the 2012 Yankees were old, and the ’13 version is even older, as evidenced by the population of their trainer’s room.… Read more »