Roy Halladay is struggling. Last season was definitely below par. But, observers were inclined to give Halladay the benefit of the doubt and ascribe his performance to injury and never getting back into rhythm after his return to the lineup. The trouble with that assessment of 2012 is that, rather than rounding into form as the season wound down, Halladay was headed the other direction.

But, “2013 is a new year” went the refrain. With rest and a renewed sense of purpose, it would be the same old Roy again. Except, Halladay had a rough spring with whispers that his old velocity just isn’t there. So far this season, the search party is still looking for the old Roy.

Is this the end of Halladay as the dominant staff ace? Say it ain’t so, Roy!

To consider the significance of Halladay’s decline since his age 34 season in 2011, I’ve identified the control group below of pitchers since 1893 with 2300-2700 IP, 125-151 ERA+ through their age 34 seasons.

Not a bad group. Not the greatest pitchers in the history of the game but certainly a good group with a healthy does of HOFers.

First off, what did this group do for the rest of their careers?

Right away, three pitchers (Koufax, Gomez and Joss) fall off but all of the rest had at least 550+ IP over 3+ seasons after age 34. While the ERA+ performance of the group declined (as would be expected), some actually improved their ERA+ and all of them (save Halladay) gave a good account of themselves, pitching at or close to average levels, ranging up to well above average for Whitey and Lefty.

So, this is probably a good sign for Halladay – he’s struggled and he has been injured, but the control group would suggest that that is something he is likely to overcome.

Delving a bit deeper, how often have these pitchers had a season after age 34 like Halladay’s in 2012. I’ll look for a season of 125 to 175 IP with ERA+ below 100.

So, 7 of the 10 pitchers did have such a season and 4 of the 10 had more than one. And, Halladay has some company with two others (Mussina and Faber) also recording a season like his at age 35. That being said, it is noteworthy that 3 of the 10 pitchers in the group never had such a season (McGinnity, Ford, Coveleski) and 3 others didn’t have one until at least age 38 (Grove, Brown, Spahn).

What about complete games? Here’s what the control group did through age 34 with number of seasons of 5 or more complete games.

Halladay has a very creditable result here given his context and the drastic decline in complete games from earlier eras. For age 35 and older, here’s what the group did for seasons without a complete game.

Thus, Halladay is the only member of the group with a season without a complete game at age 35 or 36.

So, that’s the control group. What about Halladay’s own performance? Has he had spells in his career when the wheels have gotten a bit creaky? Here’s his career in a box.

Halladay burst into prominence as a 22 year-old rookie in 1999, posting a 125 ERA+ in 149.1 IP. He regressed over the next season and was demoted to the minors from whence he returned only in mid-season 2001. The first month after that return was not great, with a 5,40 ERA, but Halladay cut that in half and more with a 2.46 mark over the final two months of the season, for a 145 ERA+ overall. He was on his way.

Halladay had an outstanding 2002 season of 19-7, 157 ERA+ while leading the league in IP. The next season was Halladay’s first CYA year with 22-7, 145 while again leading in IP, and also in CG and SHO.

Halladay’s 2004 and 2005 seasons were both cut short by injury, though Halladay’s performance remained stellar with a combined 20-12, 142 ERA+ for those seasons. After that, Halladay turned in 6 straight campaigns of at least 220 IP and 121 ERA+, registering a collective 109-49, 149 while leading 5 times in CG, 3 times in shutouts, twice in IP and once in ERA+, culminating in a second CYA selection in 2010.

The verdict: 2012 would appear to be the first time since 2000 that Halladay has turned in sub-par performance over the course of a season, whether interrupted by injury or not.

So, what about getting in a rut during the season and then coming out of it? Has that been a common characteristic during Halladay’s career? Let’s look at his current streak of consecutive starts of 4 IP or less.

In a word, no! Hardly a rut to be found. Kind of takes your breath away to think that Halladay has a grand total of 24 starts in his career of 4 IP or less, including the two to start this season. The 2004 streak included the game in which he was injured and his first two starts after coming back from that injury. The 2000 “streak” was two starts separated by two months. So, really, 2013 is the first time since early in his rookie year of 1999 that Halladay has had back-to-back starts of 4 IP or less, absent extenuating circumstances.

I mentioned at the top that, far from rounding into form after his return to the lineup in 2012, Halladay was headed the other way. From his return to the lineup in mid-July to the end of August, Halladay posted a 4.06 ERA. But, in September that ballooned to 6.84 with only one start of 7+ IP.

With that finish to 2012, Halladay is currently riding the longest streak of his career for starts of 5 IP or less (four), and the longest streak since 2001 for starts of 6 IP or less (five).

Roy Halladay justly has a large following of admirers (including yours truly) who are hopeful that he can find his dominant form again. But, he’s into uncharted territory with his current funk. However it turns out for Roy, here’s a tip of the hat to a consummate pro, and an early congratulations on win number 200!