There’s an old well-known adage around the game of baseball that goes a little something like this: you can never, under any circumstance, have too much pitching. You’re only one pitch away from an injury and the most historically successful teams have been able to overcome that little issue by having superior depth, particularly in the rotation.

But, as the Atlanta Braves are about to find out, the limits of the modern-day 5-man rotation can create an interesting dilemma. Through 60+ games the Braves rotation has been among the best in baseball, posting a 3.25 ERA as a group, which ranks 3rd in baseball behind St. Louis and Cincinnati. Mike Minor and Kris Medlen have matured into front of the rotation forces while fellow youngster Julio Teheran has started to blossom into his own. The staff’s pair of veterans, Tim Hudson and Paul Maholm have been more than serviceable, going 11-9 with a sub-4.00 ERA combined, giving the Braves both quality and depth.

But here’s where things start to get interesting. Starting pitcher Brandon Beachy is inching ever closer to his Major League return from Tommy John surgery. Beachy, if you remember, was the National League leader in ERA at the time of his injury and he was on a crash course for his 1st All-Star game appearance. His rehab starts down in the Braves farm system have all gone according to plan as well, which means the right-hander could be ready for big league action by the start of next week.

Braves manager Fredi Gonzalez is already struggling with the situation, saying

“I don’t know — that’s my honest-to-God answer,” Braves manager Fredi Gonzalez said Sunday. “I don’t think there’s a clear-cut answer right now. And I don’t want to say, ‘Let’s see what happens,’ because people think, ‘Fredi’s hoping somebody gets hurt.’ And I don’t want that. I want everybody to be pitching healthy and then we’ve got to come up with some kind of plan. But right now we don’t have a plan.”

So let’s give Fredi some help. Who stays and who goes in the Atlanta rotation? The candidates please:

Tim Hudson – Hudson has become the standard-bearer for Braves’ pitchers over the past 8+  seasons, averaging 13 wins a year to go along with a 3.57 ERA. Things haven’t gone as smoothly in 2013 for Hudson however. He’s just 4-5 this season with a 4.55 ERA, the highest on Atlanta’s staff. But if you look a little deeper, Hudson hasn’t pitched any differently this year than any other year, hitters are just taking him deep more often. He’s striking out 6.4 batters per 9, walking just 2.1, and allowing 8.5 hits, which are all well inline with his career numbers. Hell, his .246 opponent’s batting average is actually 2 points lower than his career average and his fastball velocity is up half a tick from a year ago. If anything Hudson is just about to go on a run, which means he shouldn’t be leaving the rotation.

Paul Maholm – If this was based purely on track record or potential, Maholm would most certainly be the odd man out, but let’s not be so quick to judge. Instead we should focus on the fact that at age-31 Maholm is pitching better than ever. He’s allowing fewer base runners than ever before and he’s striking out nearly a batter more per game than his career norm. With that being said, Maholm still looks like he’s going to be the one moving to the bullpen. He’s the softest tosser out of the group and at some point hitters are going to start turning around some of those 87-89 mph fastballs.

The Braves may be tempted to trade Maholm for offense or bullpen help, but they probably wouldn’t get an adequate return back and they would be at the peril of one injury derailing their rotation. They’d be best served putting the veteran pitcher in a long relief/6th man role, which would allow Atlanta to keep the innings count low on Beachy and Teheran.

Kris Medlen – Medlen took the baseball world by storm a season ago, putting up one of the post-All-Star game runs in recent memory. He went 9-0 with a 0.94 ERA in nearly 100 innings of work while striking out more than 6 batters for every walk. He’s been able to carry some of that success over into 2013 thanks to a solid 2.87 ERA.

Unfortunately for Medlen, he’s already spent part of his career coming out of the bullpen, which may make his arm the one best suited to be removed from the rotation. That would be a mistake in my opinion however, because Medlen is probably the most talented pitcher the Braves have, one capable of going on a 20-game undefeated tear. If it was up to me, Medlen would stay near the top of the rotation.

Mike Minor – Minor’s easily been the best Braves’ pitcher this season, posting a 2.44 ERA (161 ERA+) to go along with a great K rate (8.3 K’s per 9) and a low walk rate. He’s got a large repertoire of pitches that he can locate well and he’s willing to throw any pitch in any count. He’s been particularly dominant with his fastball this year, holding hitters to a .178 average in 167 opponent’s at-bats against the pitch(according to Brooks-Baseball.net). Minor’s a no-brainer to stay in the rotation and right now he’s Atlanta’s ace.

Julio Teheran – This is where things start to get dicey. After a rough first month in the big leagues, Teheran has started to find his groove. Over his past 5 starts he’s posted a 1.77 ERA while striking out 4.5 batters per every walk. His last start was the finest of his young career. Teheran took a no-hitter into the 8th inning while striking out 11 Pittsburgh Pirates thanks to a fully unleashed slider. Teheran threw 41 sliders against Pittsburgh (a career high) and the development of that particular pitch only makes the righty tougher to face. Atlanta would be absolutely foolish to stunt his development at this point by demoting him to the bullpen.

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Of course, the Braves could always opt to keep all 6 pitchers in the rotation, but that would be fairly out of the blue. Instead I expect Fredi Gonzalez to eventually demote somebody from the rotation to the bullpen. If it were my choice, I’d keep Teheran and Medlen on the staff while sending Maholm to the pen for spot starts and long relief. You don’t want to stunt the growth of Teheran and despite Medlen’s history of success in the bullpen, he’s far, far too talented to waste on 1-2 inning outings. No matter which way Atlanta decides to go, it’s a good problem to have.

Big thanks to Baseball-Reference and Brooks Baseball for the statistical help!