Monthly Archives: August 2013

Offensive Domination at Any Age Part 1

Over the last few years we have been spoiled. It seems like every top prospect lately has come up, and proven themselves to be among the best in the game immediately. Bryce Harper started bashing from almost his very first pitch it, and only a midsummer slump last year slowed him down. Mike Trout looks like he might end up being the greatest player of all time, all the while finding a cure for cancer, and feeding the hungry. For 2/3s of this season Manny Machado was making a serious run at one of the oldest records in American sports, the single season doubles record. It does not usually work out this way. For every Alex Rodriguez, who came up and put together MVP quality seasons consistently in his early 20’s, there are 10 guys that need to adjust to Major League pitching.

On the other end of the spectrum we have a player like Raul Ibanez. Although he has cooled off lately, Ibanez still has a shot at setting the homerun record for any player of his age. These type of statistics have always fascinated me. I love watching an 18 year old hold his own, in the same league that  somebody literally 2 and a half times his age is also surviving in. I thought an interesting project would be to find the greatest hitting season ever for every age. This is purely from an offensive perspective. I did this because quite frankly I do not trust defensive metrics that over 20 years old. I do not want to exclude an old time player just because of my personal bias. This exercise is from a wide range of factors, not purely OPS+, or wRC+. I factored in playing time, quality of play, and impact on the game. All ages are based on the Baseball Reference definition, their age on June 30th. Today’s edition will have ages 18-29, while tomorrow I will have ages 30-40.

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Friday game notes

Pirates 3, @Giants 1 — Just two kinds of batters, I think, had any chance of homering on this pitch from Madison Bumgarner: (1) Miguel Cabrera (sui generis); and (2) open-stance, bucket-stepping RHBs like Clint Barmes. Charlie Morton’s 4th straight strong effort (totaling 7 runs in 27.2 IP) kept Pittsburgh a game up on St. Louis, and pulled them up to one behind the Braves for MLB’s best record.

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Thursday game notes: Murphy’s Law nabs Strasburg

Nationals 5, @Cubs 4 (13 inn.) — Washington’s third straight win pivoted on two pitcher assists, the first a perfectly placed dribbler that got the job done, the latter a screaming liner that Drew Storen deflected into a game-ending DP that sealed his first save since June. But the true drama came in the 9th, when the Cubs trailed 4-1 with 2 outs.

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Buc-ing a trend – the end of the streak

They teased us last year, but this time it’s finally going to happen. Yes, barring an almost complete collapse, the Pittsburgh Pirates will indeed break the longest streak of futility in the history of the majors. Twenty seasons of losing baseball are coming to an end in the Steel City, and it could be official as early as Labor Day.

The last Pirates team to win more than it lost was back in 1992. How long ago was that? Consider:

  • Barry Bonds and Andy Van Slyke were manning the Pirate outfield
  • Miguel Batista debuted for Pittsburgh (he is the only player to appear that season who is still “active”)
  • there were only two divisions in each league (and nary a wildcard to be found)
  • the World Series had never been played outside the USA (although that was about to change)
  • ballparks weren’t named after corporations
  • Nationals, Rockies, Marlins, Diamondbacks, Rays (deviled or plain)? Never heard of ’em.
  • 11 players would strike out at least 125 times (more have already done so in 2013)

More on the end of an era after the jump.

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The Yadier Molina Effect

Yadi knows everything about every single hitter, exactly what to throw. If you execute your pitches and throw them where he wants the ball, you’re going to get hitters out, have a better ERA, win the game. I seriously believe that all the success I’ve had is totally on him.” – St. Louis Cardinals’ rookie Shelby Miller

It’s not just instinct. It’s sense, based on how a hitter’s standing, how he responds to the pitch or two before, and he’s very creative in how he makes his adjustment based on what he sees with the hitter and knowing what his pitcher can do. That’s art.” – Former manager Tony La Russa

With him catching me, I never had to worry. It’s never like he was back there guessing. He gets to know his pitchers. He got to know me, what I like to do, my strengths and weaknesses. When I got into trouble, what do we need to do to get me out of it? Those are the things he not only has to remember for one guy, but a whole staff. The ability to do that is pretty amazing.” – Milwaukee Brewers’ pitcher Kyle Lohse

The quotes listed above are just a small sampling of the praise that has generally rained down on Yadier Molina over the past 5 seasons or so. He’s widely regarded as the best defensive catcher in baseball thanks to his sublime framing skills, his Howitzer arm, and a glove so soft that Adam Wainwright once described it as a pillow. But can the mighty Molina really lower a pitcher’s ERA while taking runs off the board, as Shelby Miller and so many others claim? Or is there something else at work here? Let’s dive into the data to see if we can catch a glimpse at the inner workings of St. Louis’ finest:

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Sorting Out the AL Cy Young Race

In many years there are no exciting award races. The MVP will be clear cut in both leagues. The Cy Young awards will be preordained. The Rookie of the Year winners will be decided by the time the Opening Day rosters are announced. Gladly 2013 is not one of those years. I would venture to say that none of the major awards have a guy whom should clearly take home the crown. Maybe you could make a case Kershaw has separated himself, but Harvey is right on his tail. Perhaps the voters will love Cabrera’s run at a second triple crown, but Trout is probably going to defeat him in WAR again. There are many great races, but my personal favorite this year is for the AL Cy Young, if only because there are so many fantastic choices. There is a good chance that many voters will be lazy, and just vote for Max Scherzer because of his record, but they will be doing themselves a disservice. This race deserves an advanced breakdown.

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