Game 6 Preview |

The Red Sox go for all the marbles tonight. But to do it, they’ll have to find an answer to young Michael Wacha. In game 2, Wacha became the 16th pitcher to start and win 4 games in a single post-season. With another W tonight, Wacha can become the first starter to reach 5 (Randy Johnson won 5 games in 2001, one of them in relief; before recording the first decision of his regular season career, the Angels’ Francisco Rodriguez won 5 post-season games in 2002, all in relief). Wacha would also become the first starter with more career wins in the post-season than in the regular season.

For the Cardinals, it’s a bigger hill to climb. They will be trying to come back from 3-2 down, on the road. No team has done that since the 1979 Pirates (who came back from 3-1 down).

More after the jump.

Here are those 16 pitchers with 4 starts and 4 wins in a single post-season. Dave Stewart and Jack Morris are the only players on the list who accomplished this feat in a season with only two playoff rounds.

Rk	Player	Year	#Matching		W	W-L%	ERA	GS	CG	SHO	IP	H	ER	HR	BB	SO	WHIP
1	David Wells	1998	4	Ind. Games	4	1.000	2.93	4	0	0	30.2	24	10	6	5	31	0.95
2	Michael Wacha	2013	4	Ind. Games	4	1.000	1.00	4	0	0	27.0	11	3	2	8	28	0.70
3	Dave Stewart	1989	4	Ind. Games	4	1.000	2.25	4	1	1	32.0	23	8	4	5	23	0.88
4	John Smoltz	1996	4	Ind. Games	4	1.000	1.20	4	0	0	30.0	18	4	0	10	23	0.93
5	Curt Schilling	2001	4	Ind. Games	4	1.000	0.79	4	3	1	34.0	16	3	1	5	38	0.62
6	Andy Pettitte	2009	4	Ind. Games	4	1.000	3.33	4	0	0	24.1	19	9	3	10	23	1.19
7	Jack Morris	1991	4	Ind. Games	4	1.000	2.37	4	1	1	30.1	29	8	0	7	18	1.19
8	Tim Lincecum	2010	4	Ind. Games	4	1.000	2.43	4	1	1	29.2	19	8	3	8	35	0.91
9	Jon Lester	2013	4	Ind. Games	4	1.000	1.59	4	0	0	28.1	19	5	3	7	25	0.92
10	Cliff Lee	2009	4	Ind. Games	4	1.000	1.64	4	2	0	33.0	22	6	0	3	28	0.76
11	Randy Johnson	2001	4	Ind. Games	4	1.000	1.12	4	2	2	32.0	19	4	1	6	37	0.78
12	Burt Hooton	1981	4	Ind. Games	4	1.000	1.00	4	0	0	27.0	19	3	2	14	11	1.22
13	Orel Hershiser	1995	4	Ind. Games	4	1.000	0.92	4	0	0	29.1	17	3	2	6	28	0.78
14	Cole Hamels	2008	4	Ind. Games	4	1.000	1.55	4	0	0	29.0	18	5	2	8	27	0.90
15	Chris Carpenter	2011	4	Ind. Games	4	1.000	2.42	4	1	1	26.0	20	7	2	6	15	1.00
16	Josh Beckett	2007	4	Ind. Games	4	1.000	1.20	4	1	1	30.0	19	4	1	2	35	0.70

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 10/30/2013.

Currently, Michael Wacha has career totals of 4 regular season wins as a starter, and the same number for post-season. The only other pitcher like this is Matt Moore of the Rays who, in the 2011 season, won his first career start on Sep 22nd and then also won his next start, in the post-season, on Sep 30th. The only other pitcher to win a post-season start with fewer regular season wins than Wacha is Bob Wolcott of the Mariners, who had 3 career regular season wins before winning his first post-season start, in game 1 of the 1995 ALCS.

Boston will try to become the 15th team to close out a World Series winning at home in game 6. These are the teams to do this previously.

Date	        Winner	Gm#	Opp	Rslt
2009-11-04	NYY	6	PHI	W 7-3
1996-10-26	NYY	6	ATL	W 3-2
1995-10-28	ATL	6	CLE	W 1-0
1993-10-23	TOR	6	PHI	W 8-6
1980-10-21	PHI	6	KCR	W 4-1
1977-10-18	NYY	6	LAD	W 8-4
1953-10-05	NYY	6	BRO	W 4-3
1951-10-10	NYY	6	NYG	W 4-3
1944-10-09	STL	6	SLB	W 3-1
1935-10-07	DET	6	CHC	W 4-3
1930-10-08	PHA	6	STL	W 7-1
1918-09-11	BOS	6	CHC	W 2-1
1911-10-26	PHA	6	NYG	W 13-2
1906-10-14	CHW	6	CHC	W 8-3

If St. Louis should prevail tonight, Boston could still win it all at home in game 7, but it’s a dicier proposition. Teams leading a series 3-2 and losing game 6 at home are only 5-6 in the following game 7. These are the 5 teams that went that route successfully.

Date	        Winner	Gm#	Opp	Rslt
1997-10-25	FLA	7	CLE	W 3-2
1964-10-14	STL	7	NYY	W 7-5
1960-10-12	PIT	7	NYY	W 10-9
1947-10-05	NYY	7	BRO	W 5-2
1931-10-09	STL	7	PHA	W 4-2

So, a win tonight for the Cardinals gives them hope of joining these 6 teams who also went on to win game 7 on the road.

Date	        Winner	Gm#	Opp	Rslt
1979-10-16	PIT	7	BAL	W 4-1
1968-10-09	DET	7	STL	W 4-1
1958-10-08	NYY	7	MLN	W 6-2
1952-10-06	NYY	7	BRO	W 4-2
1934-10-08	STL	7	DET	W 11-0
1926-10-09	STL	7	NYY	W 3-2

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birtelcom

10 years ago

The Red Sox are 107-70, and the Cards are 106-72, for the combined regular and post-season. Should the Cards win these last two at Fenway, they would finish a half-game ahead of the Sox, 108-72 to 107-72.

Wacha will be the third youngest pitcher to start a World Series Game 6, and the second youngest to start a Game 6 with his team the one trying to stay alive. Steve Avery was 21 when he started Game 6 in 1991, with Atlanta up 3 games to 2. He pitched pretty well but the Braves ultimately lost in 11 innings (and went on to lose game 7 in extras, too in the very famous Smoltz vs. Morris thriller). In October, 1934, Paul (“Daffy”) Dean was a few months younger than Wacha is now when he threw a complete… Read more »

David Horwich

“Here are those 16 pitchers with 4 starts and 4 wins in a single post-season. Dave Stewart is the only player on the list who was able to accomplish this feat in a season with only two playoff rounds.”

Jack Morris did it, too.

Author

Doug

Reply to David Horwich

Yes he did. I’ve corrected it.

Thanks, David.

Andrew Daly

Lackey has been getting hit very hard do you guys think that his bullpen appearance in game 4 is really negatively affecting him? What’s the history of pitchers coming out of bullpen than starting later in that series?

Richard Chester

In the 1952 WS between the Yankees and the Dodgers, Allie Reynolds started games 1 and 4 while Vic Raschi started games 2 and 6. Reynolds relieved in game 6 and faced 5 batters, giving up 1 BB and retiring the others. In game 7 Reynolds relieved again, and pitched 3 innings giving up 3 hits and 1 run. Raschi also relieved in game 6 and faced 4 batters, giving up 2 hits and 1 BB. Reliever Bob Kuzava was summoned to complete the game. He faced 9 batters, retired 8 and 1 reached on error. Kuzava got the save… Read more »

Reply to Richard Chester

Andrew: I see you meant it the other way around.

Jeff B

Starting Lance Lynn almost cost Matheny in both the NLDS and NLCS and he puts a dagger in his own team’s heart by throwing him out there again tonight. Did they shut down Shelby Miller a la Strasburg or did he not use him because of 1 rough start in September?

John Autin

Doug, good stuff. But you’re missing one relevant “Game 6.” The 1912 Series had a tie in Game 2, so the game designated Game 7 by B-R was, for all practical purposes, really Game 6. The visiting Giants won that one by routing Smoky Joe Wood, but the host BoSox won the finale rather famously.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/BOS/BOS191210160.shtml

So, home teams that lost Game 6 are really 6-6 in winning Game 7.

Reply to John Autin

Thanks, John.

Never thought of that.

oneblankspace

Stewart had a week off in 1989 because of the earthquake before game 3 of the World Series.

If you include all 7-game series, you find the 2003 Marlins in the NLCS won games 6 and 7 in Chicago to advance (the Bartman game).

no statistician but

Old habits die hard. I’m no Red Sox fan, but it’s good to see the AL back in its rightful position on top. Does it bother anyone else that, since the infamous tied All-Star game in 2002, the team with home field advantage has won the Series 8 of 11 times, including the last five in a row?

Reply to no statistician but

On the other hand there’s only been one Game 7, causing the home field advantage to properly come into play, in that time. (Although I presume there’s some psychological benefit in knowing that you have Game 7 at home, playing the first two games in your own ballpark etc.)

e pluribus munu

nsb, I grew up believing that the AL’s WS advantage was wrongful, and that justice would ultimately prevail. I had no strong loyalties in this series, and felt the attraction of the Sox team, but when an AL team wins the Series, my feeling is simply that I’ll have to live a little longer than I otherwise would have if I want to see a just world before I die.

Bryan O'Connor

Prior to the All-Star-HFA ruling, when the leagues alternated every year, teams with HFA were even more dominant. To wit:

’85 Royals
’86 Mets
’87 Twins
’88 Dodgers
’89 A’s
’90 Reds
’91 Twins
’93 Blue Jays
’95 Braves
’96 Yankees
’97 Marlins
’98 Yankees
’00 Yankees
’01 Diamondbacks
’02 Angels

That’s 15 wins in 17 series for the team with home field advantage. Boston makes it 23 of 28 since the ’84 Tigers won without it.

pcg

That the outcome of the All-Star Game determines home-field advantage for the World Series has ALWAYS bothered me, irrespective of the results. The results do confirm, though: it remains one of Bud’s worse ideas.

Voomo Zanzibar

The May 28th, 2009 issue of “The Onion”,
where Manny takes Big Papi on a ROAD TRIP to boost his spirits:

(Ortiz was thumpin’ a

.194 .297 .297 .594

, had been dropped to the 6-hole,
and ‘they’ were saying he was done)
___________________________________

http://www.theonion.com/articles/manny-ramirez-to-david-ortiz-road-trip,2736/

Scott

Saw some comments on postseason home records, thought I’d some info I’ve collated:

http://beyondthescorecard.blogspot.com/2013/09/the-world-series-home-field-advantage.html

Reply to Scott

Very interesting, Scott. Fascinating to see that in World Series the ‘better team’ only wins at a virtual .500 clip. I suppose this should be expected somewhat. When two teams with broadly similar records meet in the regular season, we wouldn’t bet the house on one team winning over the other. I wonder if the home team win percentage in the regular season changes when you only look at games between contending teams. That is to say, perhaps when good teams play good teams, being the home team confers a more significant advantage. Regardless of any of this I think… Read more »

Teams winning the World Series 3 times in 10 seasons

Athletics 1910-13, 1972-74
Red Sox 1912-18, 2004-13
Yankees 1923-32, 1936-43, 1947-56, 1958-62, 1996-2000 (plus permutations)
Cardinals 1926-34, 1942-46
Dodgers 1955-63, 1959-65

Pretty short list