Tonight in Oakland, Justin Verlander and Sonny Gray will square off in the last game of the Division Series round, as the A’s host a deciding game 5 against Detroit for the second year in a row. Instead of pointlessly rehashing Oakland’s four straight losses in LDS game 5’s from 2000-03 — no more germane to this contest than their three straight championships from 1972-74 — let’s take a very quick look at sudden-death starting pitchers.
These same pitchers met in game 2 on Saturday, with neither one permitting a run. Should they reprise that feat tonight, it would be just the second scoreless duel in sudden-death history, joining Jack Morris vs. John Smoltz in the 1991 World Series.
Gray will make the 19th sudden-death start at age 23 or younger. Those lads have more than held their own, with a combined 2.73 ERA, 3.01 RA/9 and 10-8 team record (compared to 3.64 ERA, 4.08 RA/9 and 80-82 team record for those age 24 and up). However, recent history is less kind: the team starting such a youngster has lost in five of the last six tries (ever since Saberhagen’s 1985 WS shutout), going 0-3 in the last two seasons, including Jarrod Parker against Verlander last year.
Team record by SP age in sudden death (Gray is 23, Verlander 30):
- Age 22 to 24 — 12-14
- Age 29 to 31 — 24-18
Verlander looks for his seventh postseason win in hisĀ 14th outing. He aims to be the fourth pitcher ever to start and win two postseason sudden-death games (the second to do so in different seasons):
- Bob Gibson won game 7 of the 1964 and ’67 World Series, each a complete game (the first of those with just two days’ rest).
- Chris Carpenter in 2011 won NLDS game 5 with a 3-hit shutout, and won game 7 of the World Series with six innings on 2 runs, with just three days’ rest.
- Matt Cain in 2012 won NLDS game 5 and NLCS game 7, going 5.2 innings in each.
(Honorable mention to Pedro Martinez, who started and won the 2003 ALDS game 5 (7 IP, 3 R), and earned the win in 1999 ALDS game 5 with a memorable relief outing of six no-hit innings.)
There have been 90 sudden-death postseason games to date, including Wednesday’s Cards-Bucs affair, with starting pitchers going 57-66. The only starter to lose two such games was Mark Mulder, who dropped the 2001-02 ALDS finales. In the 2002 game, Mulder allowed just 2 runs in 7 IP, while each team’s closer coughed up 3 runs in the 9th. Tough luck, Mark! His effort earned the 2nd-best WPA in a sudden-death SP loss, behind Roy Halladay in this game.
Gibson is the only starter to win two World Series game 7’s, and the only one to start three such games. Lew Burdette and Don Larsen are the others with two such starts.
Roger Clemens leads the field with five sudden-death starts, two more than Gibson, Bret Saberhagen, John Smoltz and Jaret Wright. (Um…) Clemens went 1-1 with a 4.12 ERA in those five games. (Not that I would ever encourage you to judge an outstanding pitcher on the basis of five games. Well, maybe just this once.)
Top sudden-death performances:
WPA leaders are the three who won 1-0 shutouts:
- 0.845, Jack Morris, 1991 WS (the only one to go 10 full innings in sudden death)
- 0.823, Ralph Terry, 1962 WS
- 0.808, Carpenter, 2011 NLDS
Game score:
Strikeouts:
- 11, shared by Verlander (above) and Cliff Lee (2010 ALDS)
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Postscript: Three relievers have earned two sudden-death wins: Clay Carroll (1972 NLCS, 1975 WS), Mike Stanton (2000-01 ALDS), and Randy Johnson (1995 ALDS and 2001 WS). Johnson never started a sudden-death game.
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