With one blip, pitching has dominated both LCS series. How much so?
The 15 total runs scored in games 1-4 of the NLCS? New low water mark.
13 total runs in games 1-3 of the ALCS? Never had less, and equaled only in Oakland’s 1970s dynasty years.
More after the jump.
Not only is this year’s NLCS the first with so few runs in games 1-4, it’s also only the second NLCS with neither team scoring more than 4 runs in any of those games. That happened first in the 1999 NLCS between the Braves and Mets when the four pitching matchups were Yoshii/Maddux, Rogers/Millwood, Leiter/Glavine and Reed/Smoltz.
For the ALCS, you have to go back to the 1972 and 1974 series to find only 13 total runs scored in games 1-3. Like this year’s series, those two each had two shutouts in their first 3 games. In 1972, it was Blue Moon Odom for the As and Joe Coleman for the Tigers doing the honors. In 1974, Ken Holtzman and Vida Blue frustrated the Orioles who were held scoreless for 30 consecutive innings, from the 6th inning of game 1 to the 8th inning of game 4.
This year’s NLCS has also had two shutouts in its first 3 games. As with the ALCS, that has happened in only two previous NLCS series, in 1974 and 2006. Don Sutton and Bruce Kison (with relief from Ramon Hernandez) cooled off the hitters in the 1974 series, while Tom Glavine and Jeff Suppan (both with help from their bullpens) were the 2006 stars.
For similar World Series starts, the 1969 series had only 13 runs in its first 3 games, and 16 for the first four tilts. The Reds and As in 1972 had only 9 and 14 total runs through the first 3 and 4 games of their series, with neither team scoring more than 3 runs in any of those games. The Phillies and Orioles mustered only 13 runs in games 1-3 in 1983. In the 4 game sweeps in the 1963 and 1966 series, there were only 16 and 15 runs scored, respectively, with the series losers (the Yankees and Dodgers) both held to only 4 total runs.
Going way back, Brooklyn was involved in several low-scoring series starts, with 10 total runs through games 1-3 against Cleveland in 1920, 13 against the Yankees in 1941, and 9 also against the Yankees in 1949. The Phillies and Yankees also had just 9 runs through 3 games in 1950, and the Red Sox and Cardinals had only 12 in 1946.
But, the prize for the lowest scoring start to a live ball World Series goes to the Braves and Indians in 1948 with 8 runs through 3 games, and 11 runs for four, with both teams scoring 2 runs or less in 3 of those games. Save for the 1947 series, there were two shutouts in the first 3 games of each World Series from 1945 to 1949.
According to b-ref’s Play Index Event Finder, across all the 46,871 World Series plate appearances (1903-2012), the overall slash line has been .242 BA/.309 OBP/.359 SLG/.668 OPS. That’s very close to the MLB numbers for a couple of the extreme low-hitting seasons in the late 1960s-early 1970s that led MLB to introduce the DH.
World Series 1903-2012: .242 BA/.309 OBP/.359 SLG/.668 OPS
MLB 1967 season totals: .242 BA/.306 OBP/.357 SLG/.664 OPS
MLB 1972 season totals: .244 BA/.311 OBP/.354 SLG/.664 OPS
Zach Greinke has more RBI in today’s game than Prince Fielder does in his last 43 playoff at-bats. Ouch
Two GIDPs for Molina tonight. With his lack of speed and the Cards being a high OBP team (tops in the NL the last three years), I’m surprised Molina doesn’t ground into more DPs. He had 14 this year, and only 10 the last. Maybe Holliday grounding into 31 of his own this year had something to do with it?
RJ, interesting point about Yadier’s DP rate. He used to DP a lot more, averaging 21 from 2007-11, but has averaged 12 over the last 2 years.
For one thing, he’s cut his overall groundball rate. His GB/FB ratio was 0.94 for 2007-11, but 0.71 the last 2 years.
Also, his K rate is up a little overall, and especially in DP chances, without sacrificing hits. In DP chances:
— 2007-11, 5.4% SO, .324 BA
— 2012-13, 9.7% SO, .364 BA.
With 2 strikes in DP chances, his K rate is up from 17% to 28%. Perhaps he’s learned that just making contact isn’t always a great thing in those spots.
By the way, catchers’ DP totals this year were not very high. Only three had more than Yadi’s 14, with 18 by Miguel Montero the high. Carlos Santana, Matt Wieters and Joe Mauer all had just 7 GDPs, with over 500 PAs.
Insightful stuff as always John. Thanks for doing the heavy lifting.
Jake Peavy had just three 4-pitch walks this year (none intentional), and two 4-pitch walks to RHBs in the last 2 years. He issued two 4-pitch walks to RHBs in the 2nd inning tonight, Peralta and Jackson.
Fox announcers were lauding Jake’s “football mentality.” Judging from his career postseason results — 3 duds in 4 games — maybe he should try meditating instead.
My oh my, hobbled ol’ Miguel Cabrera just stole a base. This series is fantastic.
Know he stole it on the pitcher– who just made two great plays– but first time I’ve seen a guy hold up as he’s stealing second.
Query triggered by Austin Jackson in the 8th spot in the batting order: What center fielder batted eighth the most?
Regular season (1916-2013):
Cesar Geronimo 354 games in the 8th shot and playing center
Adolfo Phillips 302 games
Ken Berry 279 games
Postseason:
Cesar Geronimo 18 games
Curtis Granderson and Melky Cabrera 9 games
Really?
Centerfield, an historically “defensive” position… the 8-hole leader is at only 2+ seasons?
But Voomo, also a position at which speed is required, so CFs are much more likely to lead off (even if they’re not really good at that) than to hit 8th.
Sure, sure, but everybody who’s played in 97 years?
With there being essentially only 8 batting order spots in the NL?
I’m just as surprised as Beltran was by that curveball in 2006, that’s all.
Not to mention the fact that for the past 40 seasons in the AL, if the CF is truly inept at leading off, that speed can be used instead to “turn over” the line-up in the 9th spot.
FWIW, in 2013, percentage of starts made by AL CFs, by batting order:
1st — 45%
9th — 12%
8th — 10%
7th — 8%
2nd — 6%
4th — 6%
6th — 6%
5th — 4%
3rd — 3%
Using the Play Index, I get the following percentages for the portion of all regular season games since 1916 the starting center fielder has hit in each batting order slot:
Batting 1st: 28.2%
Batting 2nd: 15.5%
Batting 3rd: 16.5%
Batting 4th: 7.4%
Batting 5th: 9.1%
Batting 6th: 9.3%
Batting 7th: 7.5%
Batting 8th: 4.5%
Batting 9th: 2.0%
Of course the 9th spot is only really available for half the games and even there only since 1973. In the AL since 1973, the starting center fielder has batted in the 9th slot about 7.2% of the time.
Leyland’s bullpen usage these last two games reminded me how difficult being a manager must be – they get criticized for taking a pitcher out of the game too quickly or for leaving him in too long to see if he regains his command. I’m sure they get a lot of statistics of the upcoming batter-pitcher matchups, but as the game is happening they have to balance that with gut instincts and psychology when they talk to the pitcher on the mound. Luckily for the Tigers, the law of averages played a part tonight in that Ortiz’s well struck ball was just a long out. That one pitch grand slam the other night seemed so preordained with all the clutch hits Ortiz has in his career, but this time Benoit got to work Ortiz deeper into the count and show him (and Pedroia as well) that his changeup is pretty unhittable when he has command of it.
The Tigers making some plays with there gloves late in the game also contributed to the win. As Iglesias tracked that popup over his head and Cabrera barehanded a bouncer up the line, I was thinking mistakes were coming, but that’s just what being a Tigers fan is all about, you never know what’s going to happen with this team. At least it didn’t involve a Tigers pitcher throwing to a base in this game…that’s been bad news during Leyland’s years as Detroit manager.
I don’t know how the rest of this series is going to play out besides there being more high K, low scoring games, but I do look forward to more Boston-Detroit playoff series and featured games during the regular season in the next few years. With the Yankees likely having some lean years ahead, that’ll be a breath of fresh air.
And on queue, 20 runs are scored in Wednesday’s LCS games.
Of 458 team games played in the NLCS since they began in 1969, the Dodgers last night was the 11th with four or more homers — 10 games with four homers and one with five. That one five-homer game for an NLCS team was a 13-0 Cubs win over the Padres at Wrigley in Game 1 in 1984, including two homers by Gary Matthews, one by Ron Cey, one by Bob Dernier and one by Cubs winning pitcher Rick Sutcliffe (7IP, 0 ER). That NLCS ultimately did not turn out well for the Cubs, but then what does?
The Cardinals should not have taken a 3-1 lead in the series. That’s really bad news for them. In all best-of-7 postseason series (World Series or NLCS 1985-present)
When the series is…after 4 games … the Cardinals are…
over (sweep): 0-2 (1928, 2004 WS)
3-1 StL leads : 3-4 (W 1942 4-1, 1967 4-3, 2006 4-1; L 1968, 1985, 1996 NLCS, 2012 NLCS)
2-2 tie : 13-2 (L 1987 WS, 1930; W 1926, 1931, 1934, 1944, 1946, 1964, 1982, 2011 WS, 1985, 1987, 2004, 2006, 2011 NLCS)
3-1 StL trails : 0-4 (1943 4-1, 2000 NLCS 4-1, 2002 NLCS 4-1, 2005 NLCS 4-2)
All teams with a 3-1 series lead in a 7-game series are 38-39 (including the 2013 Cardinals NLCS) in Game 5, 21-17 in Game 6, and 5-12 in Game 7.
So from those numbers we can gather that those 3-1 series leaders went on to take the series 64 times and lost 12 times. That means the 1-3 series trailers won their series 15.8% of the time, compared to the 12.5% expectation one would have if the competition were flipping coins instead of playing baseball. As to that provocative result where those 3-1 leaders won only 5 of seventeen Game 7’s, there is I believe about a 7% chance that heads will come up flipping coins 5 or fewer times in 17 chances.
On the general subject of
“pitching wins championships”:
______
Zito, 7 years with Athletics:
102-63
3.55
125 era +
30.9 WAR
__________________________
Zito, 7 years with Giants:
63-80
4.62
82 era+
3.0 WAR
Two World Championships
Seventh inning stretch, and they’re playing “Piano Man”??? Anyone know the back story on this? Seems really weird to play such a sad song there.
Al-Al to start the 9th?
No, that’s bad.
I bet even money on a walk here.
Is there such a thing as umpire interference? Third-base ump got too close to the play and got in the way of Brayan Pena’s tag attempt. I’m sure there’s no remedy in the rules, but that’s a bad job by the ump.
(c) Umpires interference occurs (1) When an umpire hinders, impedes or prevents a catchers throw attempting to prevent a stolen base, or (2) When a fair ball touches an umpire on fair territory before passing a fielder.
Yeah, and right on the heels of the batter getting a gift on a should-have-been-strike-three checked swing to boot.
Thankfully it didn’t end up costing us the game or I’d probably be in the market for a new TV.
I think Middlebrooks going to third caught the umpire by surprise as much as the Tigers.
That was a crazy place to be. Even if he doesn’t get in the fielder’s way, he makes a convenient backstop for a runner who might otherwise slide past the bag.
Since 2010, Skip Schumaker has more pitching WAR than batting WAR.