Alex Cobb, the Rays’ young right-hander, has made an impressive start to his major-league career. Among active starters with 300 career IP, Cobb is one of only 11 pitchers with a career HR/9 below 0.75 and a SO/BB ratio above 2.5. His .641 career winning percentage ranks second in that group, behind only Lance Lynn‘s mark of .654.
Cobb also authored a game start that is unique among all major league starts of the past 5 seasons. What is that start and why is it so unusual?
Hint: Prior to Cobb’s start, there had been 6 other such games in this century (since 2000). There were 13 such games for 1990-99, 44 for 1980-89 and 110 for 1970-79.
It appears I’ve stumped the panel, for a change. The unusual thing about Cobb’s game is that his game score was less than the number of batters he faced. Add in 8 innings pitched and it’s the only such game since 2008. With long starts becoming as rare as double-headers, and almost every pitcher usually able to register at least a handful of strikeouts (a big part of game score), these games are really getting scarce. The other matching games are after the jump.
Here are the only other games of this century with 8 innings pitched and a game score lower than the number of batters faced.
| Rk | Player | Date | Tm | Opp | Rslt | App,Dec | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | HR | Pit | Str | GSc | BF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Randy Johnson | 2008-06-20 | ARI | MIN | L 2-7 | CG 8 ,L | 8.0 | 11 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 112 | 74 | 31 | 34 |
| 2 | Jake Westbrook | 2006-08-03 | CLE | BOS | W 7-6 | GS-8 ,W | 8.0 | 15 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 118 | 77 | 28 | 38 |
| 3 | Carlos Silva | 2006-04-18 | MIN | LAA | L 2-8 | GS-9 ,L | 8.2 | 12 | 8 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 109 | 78 | 28 | 37 |
| 4 | Mark Buehrle | 2004-09-20 | CHW | MIN | L 2-8 | GS-8 ,L | 8.0 | 10 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 112 | 72 | 34 | 35 |
| 5 | Josh Fogg | 2003-06-14 | PIT | TBD | W 12-9 | GS-9 ,W | 8.1 | 12 | 7 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 106 | 69 | 33 | 38 |
| 6 | Paul Byrd | 2002-09-09 | KCR | CHW | L 6-10 | GS-8 ,L | 8.0 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 112 | 74 | 23 | 35 |
If you’re wondering, yes that was the only 8 inning, one strikeout game of Randy Johnson’s career. His previous low of two strikeouts was an ND against Cleveland way back in 1994. Johnson’s longest previous start with one strikeout was even further back – 6 innings in a 1989 loss to the Orioles, though he did have two 6 inning starts with no strikeouts (a W and an ND), both for the Yankees, in 2005 and 2006.
I am going to guess that the start is his 0-8 CG loss against KC on June 25, 2012. It’s a very unusual start but I will just guess it’s the 8ER, 0BB, and 1K, not to mention the fact they kept him in for the whole game.
Right you are, Mort. That is the game.
So, quantitatively, what distinguishes that game from among all others of the past 5 seasons?
Complete game with 0 BB and 1 SO: 5 such games since 2009
The same with 8 or more runs allowed: Cobb’s was the first such game since this one, in 1930!
So, I’m looking for something else.
Related to the 4.2 IP, 13-K performance?
http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/TBA/TBA201305100.shtml
No, the game is the one Mort identified, from 6-25-2012.
What remains to be solved is what statistical oddity about that performance makes it unique among all games since 2009, and also yields the occurrences specified in the hint.
If I run CG, loss, HR = 1 and SO = 1 I get 7 pitchers since 2000 but only Cobb from 2009-2013. But for the other decades my numbers don’t match
That’s not it.
I’m sure it’s not it, but three swinging strikes in a complete game is pretty eyeopening.
That’s not it, but I agree it must be pretty rare.
According to FanGraphs, these are Cobb’s 2013 PitchFx data (rankings based on 128 pitchers with 120 IP).
– Swing rate on pitches in zone: 56.5%, 3rd lowest
– Swing rate on pitches out of the zone: 33.9%, 9th highest
– Contact rate on swings on pitches in zone: 90.1%, 40th highest
– Contact rate on swings on pitches out of the zone: 61.5%, 41st lowest
So, Cobb is doing a good job of keeping hitters off balance, and getting them to swing at pitcher’s pitches and take hitter’s pitches. But, he could likely improve by having hitters make more contact when he’s out of the zone (Bartolo Colon is a crazy 81.2% on that metric) and less when he’s in the zone.
Does it have anything to do with pitching that 1 SO complete game in follow-up to a 10 SO performance?
Nothing related to any proximate games. Just something about that particular game.
Does it have anything to do with balls not in play?
No. Something simpler.
I took a shot at CG with 13+ hits and no walks, but that failed on two counts — Halladay had one in 2010, and there was just one other this century (Sabathia ’06).
I don’t know the answer, but I’m guessing this is the most recent non-Cobb time it happened:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/MIN/MIN200806200.shtml
You are right, RJ.
Looks like I have a stumper.
You’ll cringe when you see how simple it is.
Let me have one more try. CG, loss, game score less than 56 and SO = 1.
Sorry, Richard.
That’s not it.
OK Doug, I have one for you. Since 1945 these players are the only ones to do what?
Danny Murtaugh
Dusty Rhodes
Bobby Rhawn
Does it have to do with their career stolen base totals matching another stat?
Murtaugh – matches GIDP
Rhodes – HBP
Rhawn – SH
Probably not. Just something I noticed.
Still sleuthing …
No it’s not that.
You’ve got me, Richard.
Rhawn must be the key, played only 90 games. But, nothing jumps out.
As a hint it was a game feat.
Is this a game the two of you are playing or can anyone guess?
Go for it, Artie.
And I’ll wait until at least tomorrow to give the answer.
7-25-1948 – Danny Murtaugh hits a walk-off HR off of Rex Barney … in the bottom of the 8th.
9-11-1948 – Bobby Rhawn hits a walk-off HR off of Hank Behrman … in the bottom of the 6th.
8-2-1952 – Dusty Rhodes hits a walk-off HR off of Murry Dickson … in the bottom of the 6th.
I don’t know if this is the correct answer, but they all hit walk-off HRs prior to the 9th inning.
For his career, Rhawn hit 2 HRs. One is the aforementioned 6th inning walk-off. His first was an inside the park HR according to the notes.
@27
It is the answer I’m looking for. Good work Artie. It didn’t take you long at all. The Murtaugh game was ended by the Pennsylvania Sunday Blue Laws. For the other two my best guess is that the games were called due to darkness, i. e. the umpires announced that the 6th inning would be the last due to impending darkness. In those days the ML rule was that lights could not be turned on during a regularly scheduled day game.
Nice one, Richard.
That is such a weird rule. The stadium has lights but you’re not allowed to use them. Seems like a war-time measure to save electricity, and they didn’t get around to changing the rule after the war ended.
BTW, the Rhodes game may have ended due to darkness in more ways than one. Scoring on the walk-off shot was Alvin Dark.
Pingback: BBA Linkfest – bring a deer generals | The Flagrant Fan