2014 First Half: More Great Starting Pitchers … or Not?

Most of the first-half reviews that I saw made a point like this one:

“Pitchers continue to dominate. We enter the break with 21 qualified starters holding an ERA under 3.00 … Kershaw (11-2, 1.78 ERA), Adam Wainwright (12-4, 1.83) and Felix Hernandez (11-2, 2.12) highlight a season with many top pitching performers … Kershaw had a 15-strikeout no-hitter with no walks, perfect other than a fielding error behind him. Wainwright hasn’t allowed a run in nine of his 19 starts. Brilliance.”

 

(David Schoenfield, Ten biggest stories of the first half”)

I don’t mean to nitpick my favorite mainstream blogger, but there’s a problem using these stats to describe trends in the game: Where’s the context? How many great first halves do you remember? How about Justin Duchscherer, 2008? — 1.82 ERA, 0.87 WHIP, .186 BA at the Break. Or Dan Haren in 2009 — 2.01 ERA, 0.81 WHIP, 8.1 SO/BB? Does anyone really have a gut sense of how this year’s best first halves compare to recent seasons, in either depth or degree of excellence?

I surely didn’t, so I did some searching. For the last five first halves, here are counts of pitchers with 80+ innings* and ERA of 3.00 or lower, 2.50 or lower, and 2.00 or lower, plus the first-half ERA for each season:

  • 2010 — 18 at 3.00 or lower … 9 at 2.50 or lower … 1 at 2.00 or lower … MLB 4.16
  • 2011 — 21 at 3.00 or lower … 11 at 2.50 or lower … 3 at 2.00 or lower … MLB 3.85
  • 2012 — 20 at 3.00 or lower … 9 at 2.50 or lower … 2 at 2.00 or lower … MLB 4.00
  • 2013 — 19 at 3.00 or lower … 6 at 2.50 or lower … 2 at 2.00 or lower … MLB 3.93
  • 2014 — 25 at 3.00 or lower … 7 at 2.50 or lower … 2 at 2.00 or lower … MLB 3.81

(* Since the Break’s timing varies, I used 80 innings to include all qualifiers and near-misses like Kershaw. The average team games at the Break in this period was 88, 91, 85, 94 and 95.)

This year does have the most pitchers at 3.00 or lower, but it also has the lowest overall ERA. And this year’s counts at the superior ranges (2.50 and 2.00) are average or worse for the period.

What about the very best, within each season’s context? The Split Finder doesn’t give ERA+, so let’s set the bar at or below 60% of the MLB ERA for that first half:*

  • 2010 … 9 at 2.50 or lower
  • 2011 … 6 at 2.31 or lower
  • 2012 … 8 at 2.40 or lower
  • 2013 … 5 at 2.36 or lower
  • 2014 … 6 at 2.29 or lower

(* Couldn’t gauge each against their own league’s ERA, since the individual Split Finder doesn’t have a league selector.)

Even without seasonal context, there’s no setting for “elite ERA” that shows greater numbers this year. Here are the counts at or below various ERA levels, from 2010 through 2014:

  • 2.50 or lower — 9, 11, 9, 6, 7
  • 2.40 or lower — 6, 8, 8, 5, 7
  • 2.30 or lower — 6, 6, 4, 3, 6
  • 2.20 or lower — 5, 5, 4, 3, 5
  • 2.10 or lower — 1, 3, 3, 2, 3
  • 2.00 or lower — 1, 3, 2, 2, 2

One more measure — the Top 25 First-Half ERAs of 2010-14:

Rk Player Split Year G ERA ▴ W L GS CG SHO IP H R ER HR BB SO WHIP SO9 SO/W
1 Josh Johnson 1st Half 2010 18 1.70 9 3 18 1 0 122.0 89 25 23 4 28 123 0.959 9.1 4.39
2 Clay Buchholz 1st Half 2013 12 1.71 9 0 12 1 1 84.1 57 16 16 2 29 81 1.020 8.6 2.79
3 Clayton Kershaw 1st Half 2014 14 1.78 11 2 14 3 1 96.1 67 19 19 5 13 126 0.830 11.8 9.69
4 Adam Wainwright 1st Half 2014 19 1.83 12 4 19 3 2 138.0 99 28 28 4 27 115 0.913 7.5 4.26
5 Jered Weaver 1st Half 2011 19 1.86 11 4 19 4 2 140.1 97 30 29 5 31 120 0.912 7.7 3.87
6 Jair Jurrjens 1st Half 2011 16 1.87 12 3 16 2 1 110.2 93 25 23 5 25 65 1.066 5.3 2.60
7 Jered Weaver 1st Half 2012 15 1.96 10 1 15 2 1 96.2 65 24 21 5 22 73 0.900 6.8 3.32
8 Johnny Cueto 1st Half 2011 12 1.96 5 3 12 2 0 82.2 57 22 18 5 26 50 1.004 5.4 1.92
9 Clayton Kershaw 1st Half 2013 20 1.98 8 6 20 3 2 145.1 97 36 32 7 35 139 0.908 8.6 3.97
10 Ryan Dempster 1st Half 2012 13 1.99 4 3 13 0 0 86.0 65 21 19 6 22 70 1.012 7.3 3.18
11 Brandon Beachy 1st Half 2012 13 2.00 5 5 13 1 1 81.0 49 24 18 6 29 68 0.963 7.6 2.34
12 Chris Sale 1st Half 2014 14 2.08 8 1 14 2 0 95.0 64 23 22 6 16 102 0.842 9.7 6.38
13 Adam Wainwright 1st Half 2010 19 2.11 13 5 19 4 1 136.1 102 35 32 10 35 127 1.005 8.4 3.63
14 Felix Hernandez 1st Half 2014 20 2.12 11 2 20 0 0 144.1 105 41 34 5 25 154 0.901 9.6 6.16
15 Johnny Cueto 1st Half 2014 20 2.13 10 6 20 3 2 143.2 93 41 34 12 35 141 0.891 8.8 4.03
16 Jeff Locke 1st Half 2013 18 2.15 8 2 18 0 0 109.0 76 28 26 6 47 73 1.128 6.0 1.55
17 Justin Verlander 1st Half 2011 20 2.15 12 4 20 4 2 151.0 101 39 36 12 31 147 0.874 8.8 4.74
18 Ryan Vogelsong 1st Half 2011 16 2.17 6 1 14 1 1 91.1 77 27 22 8 32 70 1.193 6.9 2.19
19 Jaime Garcia 1st Half 2010 17 2.17 8 4 17 0 0 99.2 85 30 24 4 40 80 1.254 7.2 2.00
20 Chris Sale 1st Half 2012 16 2.19 10 2 15 1 0 102.2 73 26 25 5 25 98 0.955 8.6 3.92
21 Roy Halladay 1st Half 2010 19 2.19 10 7 19 7 3 148.0 137 41 36 11 19 128 1.054 7.8 6.74
22 Ubaldo Jimenez 1st Half 2010 18 2.20 15 1 18 3 2 127.0 87 31 31 6 46 113 1.047 8.0 2.46
23 Josh Beckett 1st Half 2014 17 2.26 6 5 17 1 1 103.2 75 30 26 12 32 95 1.032 8.2 2.97
24 Josh Beckett 1st Half 2011 17 2.27 8 3 17 1 1 111.0 72 28 28 7 33 94 0.946 7.6 2.85
25 Tim Hudson 1st Half 2010 18 2.30 9 4 18 1 0 121.1 94 32 31 9 43 61 1.129 4.5 1.42
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used / Generated 7/14/2014.

Breakdown by season: 6 in 2010; 6 in 2011; 4 in 2012; 3 in 2013; and 6 in 2014. This year’s top three rank #3, 4 and 12 in the five-year span. Is that special?

What about single-game brilliance in the first halves of 2010-13? Anything like Kershaw’s no-hitter? Well, sure:

  • In June 2012, Matt Cain tossed a perfect game with 14 Ks, a 101 Game Score just one point below Kershaw’s epic.
  • Roy Halladay had an 11-K perfecto in May 2010, won by 1-0.
  • Last April, Yu Darvish came within one out of a 14-K perfecto. If his last batter had not singled, but fanned, Darvish would have matched Kershaw’s 102 Game Score.
  • Also last April, Anibal Sanchez whiffed 17 with one walk over eight scoreless innings, matching the MLB strikeout high of the last 10 years.

For longer stretches of first-half brilliance:

  • Remember Justin Verlander in 2011? After a May no-hitter, he rolled to the Break with 7 games that totaled 5 runs in 56.1 IP, 64 Ks and 7 walks. His 0.87 WHIP in that first half was the best in this period, except for Kershaw and Sale this year — and while those southpaws have less than 100 innings, Verlander had 151 IP, #1 in this period.
  • That same year, Cliff Lee hurled three straight CG shutouts in June (34 scoreless innings), and four SHO by the Break, the most since 1992.
  • In 2012, Ryan Dempster had a 5-start scoreless streak that spanned the Break and lasted 33 innings. Same year, Brandon Beachy allowed a .171 BA in the first half, the best since 2000.
  • Schoenfield cited King Felix’s active streak of 11 starts with 7+ IP and 2 runs or less, unmatched since 1986. That’s terrific — but would you rather have his 11-game totals of 14 runs in 85 IP, or Josh Johnson’s 8 runs in 79 IP for his last 11 games before the 2010 Break? I’ll take my chances on the bullpen filling that 6-inning gap without letting in 6 runs.

Taking it all in context, the elite pitching first halves of 2014 just don’t seem unusual. You know that I’m all for saluting the best. But it’s a big step from counting off “Kershaw, Wainwright and Felix,” to a concept like “pitchers dominating.”

Were pitchers “dominating” in the first half of 1997, when 19 had ERA under 3.00, led by Roger Clemens (1.69) and Pedro Martinez (1.74)? Or in ’95, with Greg Maddux at 1.64 ERA and 0.78 WHIP, and Hideo Nomo 1.99 and 11.9 SO/9? What about 2000, with Pedro at 1.44, 0.77 WHIP, 11.9 SO/9, and Randy Johnson at 1.80 with 12.3 SO/9 and a 14-2 record? Sure, those were some pantheon guys. But isn’t Kershaw the same? Isn’t King Felix more than halfway to the Hall, still just 28? Isn’t Wainwright a big star having maybe his best year?

Look, we know scoring is down in recent years; first-half scoring fell almost 8% from 2010 to this year. So it’s natural to want to link that with star turns by starting pitchers. But the truth is more faceted. Some of the scoring drop comes from relievers: While the first-half RA/9 for starters fell 7% from 2010-14, the reliever RA/9 fell by 12%. Some comes from a general drop in walks — so far, this year has the lowest walk rate since 1968, perhaps as pitchers became less afraid of home runs. From 2010-14, walks are down 9%, batting average just 2%.

So, to lay the scoring drop on a new breed of starting pitchers with more dominant stuff doesn’t work for me. But let’s hear what you think.

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Doug
Editor
9 years ago

I’m inclined to give our mainstream blogger a little more slack. What is absolutely clear is that offense is in decline with the corollary that defense is in ascendance. And, the most significant part of defense is and always will be pitching. So, yes, pitchers generally are dominating more now than at any time in 40 years. You mentioned walks at their lowest point since 1968. You can add hits as well. Looking just a first halves, H/9 has been below 8.75 for 4 straight years, something that hasn’t happened since 1970-73. WHIP has been below 1.32 for 4 straight… Read more »

MikeD
MikeD
9 years ago
Reply to  Doug

I’ll stick by my own belief, totally without supporting evidence, but the strike zone has changed, driven in part by greater use of QuesTec, with pitchers becoming more skilled at exploiting it.

I don’t feel powerfully about it, but this goes beyond less chemical enhancements in the game. In reality, it’s probably a combination of items.

Doug
Doug
9 years ago
Reply to  MikeD

Absolutely agree. There’s no doubt that umpires are calling the strike zone according to the rule book when every call they make can be judged objectively by everyone. Result is chest-high pitches that have been balls at least since outside protectors disappeared are now routinely called strikes.

bstar
9 years ago
Reply to  Doug

The strike zone has expanded vertically but also has shrunk from east-to-west. The Maddux/Glavine fastball called for a strike two five or six inches off the plate has disappeared from the game. Overall, the general interpretation is that the actual volume of the zone has only slightly increased.

What has changed, though, is the consistency of the zone from umpire to umpire. No more wild interpretations of what’s a strike from game to game. Perhaps this consistency of where the zone is has actually helped pitchers more than batters. Or maybe not.

bstar
9 years ago

Maybe there aren’t more starting pitchers having great first halves, but what I’m noticing is that the quality of the pitchers putting up the numbers is very high. Kershaw, King Felix, Waino. Would those three have placed in the top 5 before the season if we ran a poll for the best starting pitcher in baseball? Easily so, I think. Kershaw and Felix would have been 1-2, almost assuredly. Then throw in guys like Johnny Cueto and Chris Sale, pitchers who have been quietly brilliant for a few years but haven’t really hit the limelight yet or have battled injuries.… Read more »

RJ
RJ
9 years ago

I’ve been working on some stuff inspired by this post. I looked at the top 5, 10 and 15 pitchers by ERA for each year and compared their ERAs to the league average. I haven’t finished analysing the data yet but I can say that 1997 sees the biggest gap, percentage-wise, between the best pitchers and the league average, for all of the subsets. It doesn’t seem to merely be a product of the run-scoring environment either, as there doesn’t seem to be any correlation between run-scoring and how much better the top pitchers are than the league (again, percentage-wise).… Read more »