Happy Thanksgiving! This post is for voting and discussion in the 78th round of balloting for the Circle of Greats (COG). This round adds to the list of candidates eligible to receive your votes those players born in 1909. Rules and lists are after the jump.
The new group of 1909-born players, in order to join the eligible list, must have played at least 10 seasons in the major leagues or generated at least 20 Wins Above Replacement (“WAR”, as calculated by baseball-reference.com, and for this purpose meaning 20 total WAR for everyday players and 20 pitching WAR for pitchers). This new group of 1909-born candidates joins the eligible holdovers from previous rounds to comprise the full list of players eligible to appear on your ballots.
Each submitted ballot, if it is to be counted, must include three and only three eligible players. The one player who appears on the most ballots cast in the round is inducted into the Circle of Greats. Players who fail to win induction but appear on half or more of the ballots that are cast win four added future rounds of ballot eligibility. Players who appear on 25% or more of the ballots cast, but less than 50%, earn two added future rounds of ballot eligibility. Any other player in the top 9 (including ties) in ballot appearances, or who appears on at least 10% of the ballots, wins one additional round of ballot eligibility.
All voting for this round closes at 11:59 PM EST Friday, December 5, while changes to previously cast ballots are allowed until 11:59 PM EST Wednesday, December 3.
If you’d like to follow the vote tally, and/or check to make sure I’ve recorded your vote correctly, you can see my ballot-counting spreadsheet for this round here: COG 1909 Vote Tally. I’ll be updating the spreadsheet periodically with the latest votes. Initially, there is a row in the spreadsheet for every voter who has cast a ballot in any of the past rounds, but new voters are entirely welcome — new voters will be added to the spreadsheet as their ballots are submitted. Also initially, there is a column for each of the holdover candidates; additional player columns from the new born-in-1909 group will be added to the spreadsheet as votes are cast for them.
Choose your three players from the lists below of eligible players. The thirteen current holdovers are listed in order of the number of future rounds (including this one) through which they are assured eligibility, and alphabetically when the future eligibility number is the same. The 1909 birth-year guys are listed below in order of the number of seasons each played in the majors, and alphabetically among players with the same number of seasons played.
Holdovers:
Harmon Killebrew (eligibility guaranteed for 7 rounds)
Lou Boudreau (eligibility guaranteed for 6 rounds)
Roberto Alomar (eligibility guaranteed for 4 rounds)
Kevin Brown (eligibility guaranteed for 3 rounds)
Roy Campanella (eligibility guaranteed for 2 rounds)
Dennis Eckersley (eligibility guaranteed for 2 rounds)
Eddie Murray (eligibility guaranteed for 2 rounds)
Rick Reuschel (eligibility guaranteed for 2 rounds)
Dizzy Dean (eligibility guaranteed for this round only)
Joe Medwick (eligibility guaranteed for this round only)
Minnie Minoso (eligibility guaranteed for this round only)
Luis Tiant (eligibility guaranteed for this round only)
Dave Winfield (eligibility guaranteed for this round only)
Everyday Players (born in 1909, ten or more seasons played in the major leagues or at least 20 WAR):
Mel Ott
Stan Hack
Billy Herman
Pinky Higgins
Eric McNair
Gene Moore
Bruce Campbell
Pete Fox
Skeeter Webb
Pitchers (born in 1909, ten or more seasons played in the major leagues or at least 20 WAR):
Mel Harder
Dutch Leonard
Bucky Walters
Harry Gumbert
Lon Warneke
Bill Lee
Claude Passeau
Mace Brown
Reuschel, Ott, Herman
Ott, Killebrew, and Dean
Ott, Medwick and Dean.
Harmon Killebrew
Dennis Eckersley
Mel Ott
Easiest vote in a while: Ott, Tiant, Murray.
Mel Ott
Kevin Brown
Lou Boudreau
Happy Thanksgiving, everyone!
Ott, Reuschel, Kevin Brown
Ott
Dean
Campanella
Oh, and the headline:
VOTERS DECIDE MEL “OTT” TO BE INDUCTED!!!
Very nice.
birtelcom will do well to top that one.
@9;
This is when I wish that we had a “LIKE” button…
Ott is the best player so far born in the ‘oughts’. Thanks, I’ll be here all week.
but did Ott ever play for OTT (Ottawa) ?
@139,
No, but he ‘ought’ to have… GROAN, BOO – OK, I’ll leave…
Prepare your yawn before reading…
1909 results: That unmistakable ‘Mel’ of greatness.
Winfield, Murray, Ott
with apologies to Alomar
Murray and Kevin Brown, and of course Mel Ott (was going to vote for Alomar but when did he build up 4 rounds of eligibility?)
Obvious Ott election is obvious, but there is an interesting undercard on here… not quite interesting enough to disrupt things, though, a few low-50 WAR guys that, in my esteem, are every bit as good as Medwick and better than Dean, but also by my esteem that’s not enough to vote for them. Anyway, I’m not gonna copy/paste the long explanation of my methodology here (I’ve been meaning to rewrite it, getting a bit stale), but in short, I give guys a cumulative rank relative to the rest of the ballot on an aggregate of 4 advanced measures: WAR, WAA+, JAWS, and WAR*WAR/162 (/250IP for pitchers). A ‘4’ means you’re the best at all of them, a bigger number means you’re not.
Here’s 1909 (generally rank everyone on the ballot plus newcomers over 50 WAR, but Dutch Leonard had negative WAR with the bat so he’s below the line):
Ott 4
Brown 10
Reuschel 12
Boudreau 20
Tiant 21
Alomar 23
Murray 28
Eckesley 32
Winfield 40
Killebrew 40
Medwick 43
Herman 46
Minoso 51
Dean 54
Hack 55
Campanella 64
Well, Ott’s in, so no real ‘vote for the win’ (even though it’s him). It’s all about eligibility – everyone I think is worthy has an extra round buffer except Tiant, so I’ll vote him, and Reuschel only has an extra round despite being at the top of my ballot.
Ott
Tiant
Reuschel
I guess with the 1970 round coming up soon (a week or two, right?) and a redemption round sometime in the next month, things are going to get interesting. And maybe a bit too crowded. Something’s gotta give.
Herman missed two seasons to the war or else he’d likely be over 60 WAR. He has 54.7 career WAR, and had 4.7 the year before and 3.7 the year after the war.
Isn’t he at last he equivalent of Killebrew? Yet I’d be surprised of he makes it past this round.
Good point, David. After that 3.7 WAR season, Herman got packaged with some prospects in the trade that landed Bob Elliott in Boston. Yet, after trading away their top player to get him, the Pirates scarcely used Herman, giving him all of 15 games, the last of his career.
Despite his HOF status, 10 straight A-S selections, and 5 top 10 MVP finishes, Herman remains mostly anonymous (even at B-R and SABR, where his biogrpahy is conspicuous by its absence). His namesake Babe Herman was a good player, but at least a notch or two below Billy, yet is arguably more well-known (though he too gets a Bio snub).
Doug – Herman was actually the manager of that Pirates team. So for whatever reason he decided to rarely use himself. No idea why, since he was coming off a solid season. And the Pirates certainly could have used the help.
Good catch, David.
And I should have remembered that, because it was one of my quiz questions (a team trading to acquire its next manager) several rounds back. Talk about a trade back-firing. Herman lasted only that one season as the Buc manager while Elliott has an MVP season for the Braves.
And, I’m going to revise my assessment of the Hermans. Babe was some hitter – his 141 career OPS+ makes the top 50 in 5000 PA careers since 1901 (top 60 all-time). Babe’s Rbat was more than double Billy’s in almost identical PAs. Add in Rfield, and Babe’s still a third higher than Billy for those two components. So, Billy’s WAR edge all comes from positional adjustment. I’m saying they’re pretty comparable (might even give the nod to Babe), WAR notwithstanding.
@35/Doug;
Babe Herman was a legendarily bad fielding OFer in his time; you can find many contemporary references to that. Since Rfield is more regressed the further back you go back in the past, I don’t think that his career Rfield of -31 accurately reflects how below-average he was as a fielder.
Greg Luzinski, who had a similar reputation as Herman for defensive ineptitude, rates a -90 Rfield in a few hundred more games.
Thanks for the insight, LA.
Of course, Billy’s Rfield will reflect the same regression to the mean tendency so one would suppose that, as Babe’s negative score is probably understated, so too is Billy’s positive result. Billy’s 10 straight A-S nods would tend to indicate his defense was as well regarded as Babe’s was derided. If the factor is as large (x 3) as you have surmised anecdotally, that would more than erase Billy’s Rbat deficit. At least they are contemporaries, so the win value of those R-scores should be similar.
Yeah, mea culpa. I for some reason completely overlooked that. I usually have a good in-depth dig at a guy’s stats, even if I don’t know him, but I dunno, I was in a rush this morning I guess (giving Herman the literal backup of being an ‘overlooked’ player). That deserves another look, and maybe a vote if Reuschel doesn’t really need mine. But, that said, if you know anything about me from the last few rounds, it’s that being as good as Killebrew certainly isn’t enough to get you my vote. So I don’t know if that moves him up enough, to be honest. But thank you for pointing it out.
Oh I was giving you credit Bells! It was because of your post that I took a closer look at Herman.
Like you, I’m disinclined to vote for someone who I consider a maybe. At the same time, it seems clear to me that he was better than several of the current holdovers.
Ah, understood, the written word is hard to read into at times. Either way, you would have been justified in calling me out on not noticing that.
Ott, Alomar, Minoso
Ott, Boudreau, Eckersley
We’ll be enshrining Master Melvin next week, but as bells mentioned above, the undercard is a battle royal…
Here’s how the pitchers stack up, by turning a counting stat into a rate stat (to adjust for length of career).
Innings Pitched per Win Above Average
IpWaa:
73.5 …. (1969) Dean
80.3 …. (3256) Brown
93.1 …. (3548) Reuschel
101.0 … (3486) Tiant
107.4 … (3286) Eckersley
109.3 … (3170) Ford
136.6 … (2719) Claude Passeau
141.8 … (3219) Dutch Leonard
144.8 … (2781) Lon Warneke
152.1 … (3104) Bucky Walters (also 7.8 WAR as a position player)
200.3 … (3425) Mel Harder
______
Here is IpWaa through age 34.
Pitchers do not fade as predictably as position players, so this is arbitrary and unfair (to Eck, Dutch, and Passeau). But it is semi-handy to look at.
IpWaa (34)
72.9 …. Big Daddy
74.2 …. Dizzy Dean
79.2 …. Brown
85.6 …. Tiant
100.8 … Eck
141.0 … Passeau
142.6 … Warneke
149.9 … Walters
169.9 … Harder
181.3 … Leonard
JAWS
80.3 … Master Melvin Ott (4th at RF – Ruth, Aaron, Musial)
55.8 … Boudreau (15th at SS)
54.8 … Alomar (13th at 2B)
53.6 … Murray (14th at 1B)
50.8 … Winfield (19th at RF)
49.2 … Killebrew (19th at 1B)
47.6 … Medwick (16th at LF)
45.1 … Herman (19th at 2B)
43.8 … Hack (24th at 3B)
39.8 … Minoso (22nd at LF)
33.5 … Campanella (25th at C)
WAR
107.8 . Ott
68.3 … Murray
66.8 … Alomar
63.8 … Winfield
63.0 … Boudreau
60.3 … Killer
55.5 … Medwick
54.7 … Herman
52.5 … Hack
50.1 … Minoso
42.7 … Walker
34.2 … Campanella
WAA
70.6 … Ott
42.2 … Boudreau
32.3 … Alomar
28.1 … Killebrew
28.1 … Medwick
26.8 … Minoso
26.6 … Herman
27.0 … Murray
24.8 … Hack
23.7 … Winfield
15.7 … Campanella
One more breakdown, fairly long:
Applying some 4th grade math to those counting stats…
Here is Wins Above Average, expressed as a rate stat, by dividing it into Plate Appearances (PaWaa):
PaWaa:
160.7 … (11348) Melvin Ott
166.4 … (7024) Lou Boudreau
287.8 … (7712) Minnie Minoso
289.8 … (8143) Duck Medwick
306.7 … (4815) Roy Campanella
322.0 …(10400) Rob Alomar
324.8 … (8639) Billy Herman
343.1 … (8508) Stan Hack
350.0 … (9833) Harmon Killebrew (note Killer behind Herman and Hack)
413.1 … (2148) Bucky Walters
474.8 …(12817) Eddie Murray
521.4 …(12358) Dave! Winfield
_______
Good, but let’s adjust for length of career.
To use a semi-arbitrary baseline, I’m calling the first 7,000 PA of a player’s career Peak+.
7000 is roughly 12 full seasons.
It is also the length of Boudreau’s career
Here is PaWaa again, calculated through the season closest to 7000 PA.
PaWaa7000:
143.4 … Ott
166.0 … Boudreau
236.2 … Murray
237.4 … Minoso
254.4 … Killebrew
264.5 … Medwick
287.0 … Alomar
288.6 … Winfield
306.7 … Campanella (4815)
311.9 … Herman
376.4 … Hack
________
Removing defense…
oWAR, divided by Plate Appearances.
O-Pa:
109.6 … (11348) Ott
138.1 … (9833) Killebrew
139.6 … (7024) Boudreau
142.9 … (4815) Campanella
148.6 … (10400) Alomar
159.4 … (8143) Medwick
161.4 … (8508) Hack
162.0 … (7712) Minoso
169.1 … (12358) Winfield
175.2 … (8639) Herman
209.4 … (12817) Murray
_______
O-Pa 7000:
106.1 … Ott
120.0 … Killebrew
139.6 … Boudreau
142.9 … Campanella (4815)
143.0 … Winfield
144.7 … Alomar
148.3 … Minoso
149.0 … Murray
152.0 … Medwick
164.3 … Hack
182.4 … Herman
“350.0 … (9833) Harmon Killebrew (note Killer behind Herman and Hack)”
If you’re going to make this note, why not point out how Killebrew is way out in front through your 7000PA metric and both O-PA metrics? Picking out one statistic that highlights one position while ignoring others that might hold water for the other is a little odd.
Through 7000 PA, Killebrew is ahead of Roberto Alomar and Roy Campanella, both of whom seem to have more ardent supporters.
Again I’m not saying we MUST have Killebrew, but it really feels as though everyone is piling on. Even at the 350 PA/WAA for his whole career, Killebrew far outpaces Murray and Winfield.
Just seeing if anyone is paying attention to my long arcane number posts.
For sure, they are definitely interesting.
I remain puzzled over how Ott finished 6th in the MVP voting in 1936. His team won the pennant and he led them in all the triple crown categories plus runs scored. In fact none of his teammates were even close to him in HR and RBIs. He had 33 and 135, no one else had more than 9 and 67.
His teammate Carl Hubbell won the award and it does seem that he deserved it.
Next up was Dizzy Dean. I don’t that one. He had a good season but hardly a great one by his standards and his ERA was nearly a run higher than Hubbell’s.
Next up were Billy Herman, Joe Medwick, and Paul Waner. They certainly all had quality seasons but their teams’ finished behind Ott and the Giants. The only thing I can figure is that they had more hits and a higher BA than Ott.
Anyway, I really wonder what the voters wanted from Ott…
This year’s tidbits.
– Mel Ott’s 6 seasons of 100 walks and 100 runs were then the NL record. Who was the first NL player to surpass Ott’s mark?
– Dutch Leonard’s 199 games and 465 IP are both Cub franchise records for pitchers aged 40 or older. Included was Leonard’s 1949 season when he led the majors in FIP. Who are the other 3 pitchers to do this aged 40 or older?
– Mel Harder and Whitey Ford are the only single franchise AL pitchers with 3000+ IP and fewer than 200 complete games. Who is the only such NL pitcher?
– Bucky Walters posted league-leading IP totals above 300 in 3 consecutive seasons (1939-41). Which pitcher did this most recently?
– Stan Hack posted career BA, OBP and SLG marks all over .300 and under .400. Who is the only other third baseman to do this in a 3000 PA career?
– Harry Gumbert has the unfortunate distinction of being the only pitcher with two World Series relief appearances allowing 4+ runs in less than 2 IP. Who is the only pitcher with two such LCS appearances?
– Billy Herman started every game at second base in his 1932 rookie season. Who are the only two second basemen since to do the same?
– Lon Warneke posted a .600 W-L% for two franchises in 1000+ IP for each. Who are the only other two franchise pitchers to do the same?
– Bill Lee led the NL in ERA and ERA+ in 1938. Who is the only Cub pitcher since to do the same?
– Gene Moore teamed with Wally Berger in 1936 to give Boston two outfielders with 3.5 WAR. Which was the first Braves’ team to have 3 such outfielders?
– Pinky Higgins hit for the cycle (sort of) in the 1940 WS, finishing game 3 with HR, double, and starting game 4 with single, popup, triple. Higgins’ 12 consecutive seasons (1933-44) batting .265 with 125 games at third base is the AL record. Who holds the NL mark?
– Eric McNair‘s 47 doubles in 1932 was then the highest league-leading total by a shortstop, a mark that has since been surpassed 5 times by AL shortstops leading in doubles. Who is the only NL shortstop with a higher league-leading doubles total than McNair’s?
– Claude Passeau is the last Cub pitcher with 7 consecutive seasons (1939-45) winning 13 games with a .500 or better W-L%. Who is the only other Cub of the live ball era to do the same?
– Pete Fox battered Cardinal pitching for 6 doubles in the 1934 World Series, still the record for the Fall Classic. Fox also holds the career World Series record of 7 games with a double but without a run scored. Who holds the career WS record for games with a double and a run scored other than by home run?
– Bruce Campbell was the first live ball era player to strike out 100 times in a rookie season. That would be his career high, though, as Campbell posted at least a .275 BA and .340 OBP for each of the remaining 10 seasons of his career. Who is the only AL outfielder since Campbell to close out his career with 10 such seasons of at least 75 games?
– Skeeter Webb held the live ball era record for 50 years for most career PA among players with career OPS+ below 50. Who edged out Webb for that record and still holds it today?
– Mace Brown is the only Pirate pitcher to post consecutive seasons (1939-40) with 15 starts and 25 relief appearances. Those would be the last starts of Brown’s career as he moved on to the Dodgers and Red Sox where he was used exclusively in relief, becoming the first Boston pitcher with consecutive seasons (1942-43) of 30 games without a start. Who is the only other pitcher since 1901 to have consecutive seasons of 15 starts and 25 relief appearances, and two other seasons with 30 relief outings?
Bucky Walters: can it really have been Livan Hernandez?
Somehow, I missed the 300+ innings part. The last guy to lead his league in IP three years in a row WAS Livan Hernandez, though, which I find pretty weird. I guess I just don’t think of him as THAT much of a workhorse. Mea culpa if my (very wrong) answer confused anyone.
Harder/Ford question: Don Drysdale
I think the answer to the Bucky Walters question must be Phil Niekro…let me check…yep, Niekro from 1977-79. Steve Carlton pitched 304 innings in 1980, and no one has pitched 300+ since then.
Additional tidbits:
Dutch Leonard is the only pitcher to give up HR to Lou Gehrig and Willie Mays. Gehrig’s 9-27-38 HR off Leonard was his last.
Pinky Higgins set a record in 1938 with hits in 12 consecutive AB. There were 2 walks in that streak. It was tied by Walt Dropo in 1952. There were no walks in his streak.
Mel Ott must have really been upset when the Phillies abandoned Baker Bowl in mid-1938 and started playing their home games at Shibe Park.
His slash line at the Bowl (557 PA): .415/.508/.774/1.282 with 40 HR and 161 RBI.
At Shibe Park (317 PA): .220/.332/.272/.605 with 0 HR and 32 RBI.
David P. in post 19 mentioned the 68 RBI discrepancy between Ott and the number 2 man on the Giants in 1936. If I have done my work correctly there have been only 13 other occasions of a larger discrepancy.
As a crossword puzzle fan I noticed that Ott’s name has appeared as an answer more than any other name (although Alou is not far behind).
Mel Ott question: Joe Morgan
Mace Brown question: Marty Pattin did it. I’m assuming the 2 years of 30 relief outings are not consecutive.
Pattin is the one.
Oddly, those two seasons of 30 relief appearances were the first and last of Pattin’s 13-year career. No other pitcher with a career longer than 5 seasons has made 30 relief appearances ONLY in his first and last seasons.
Pete Fox question: Jackie Robinson, 6 games
Eric McNair question: Mark Grudzielanek.
Grud (I’m not typing that last name again) had 54 doubles and led the NL in 1997 for Montreal. What’s weird about his total that year is he did it with an OPS under .700 and had a 81 OPS+. Those are the lowest marks for anyone with 50 or more doubles in a season.
Doubles were definitely Grudzielanek’s specialty. His 391 career two-baggers ranks as the 7th highest total among those with career OPS+ of 90 or less. It’s the highest total among those who also have fewer than 8000 PA.
Ironically, Grudz also holds the live ball era record for non-pitchers for the most hits in a season without an extra-base hit – 30 in his age 40 comeback try with the Indians. Pitcher Lynn Nelson (who had the nickname “Line Drive”) had 31 singles in 1938 including 5 multi-hit games and 7 pinch hits (Lynn appeared in 66 games that year, 36 of them pinch-hitting).
I’m late to the party on this one, but that Grudzielanek season is fascinating. His 81 OPS+ and .690 are not only the lowest marks for a 50 double season, they’re the lowest marks for a 43+ double season!
Bert Niehoff had a lower OPS with 42 doubles in 1924. With 41 doubles we see Bill Wambsganss (these names aren’t getting any easier to spell) with a lower OPS and OPS+ in 1924, and Ken Reitz with a lower OPS in 1979.
It’s also the only 50+ double season with doubles greater than RBI. There are six other 40+ doubles seasons of the same ilk; Denard Span came close to that this year, with 39 doubles and 37 RBI.
The only other 50 double seasons with fewer than seven other extra-base hits are Brian Roberts in 2004 (50 2B, 6 not 2B) and George Burns in 1927 (51 2B, 5 not 2B).That was the followup to his record-setting 64 double season, which only featured 7 non-double extra-base hits itself.
Correction: Bert Niehoff’s season was 1916.
Billy Herman question: Woody Williams in 1944 and Johnny Ray in 1982.
Williams was a career minor leaguer whose rookie season came as a 31 year-old wartime replacement for 33 year-old Lonny Frey (who was called to active duty stateside). Williams continued his consecutive games streak with the first 113 games of the 1945 season, but was used only sparingly in the final month of that season. With Frey returning in 1946, Williams never played in the majors again, instead moving on to the PCL’s Hollywood Stars (where he likely also saw a bigger paycheck).
For the Stan Hack question, I’m gonna guess Billy Madlock.
Not a bad guess, but Madlock had too much pop (31 doubles and 15 HR per 162 games) to have ISO below .100, which is what we’re looking for here.
How about Bob Dillinger?
Dillinger is the one, and he barely made the 3000 PA threshold.
Bill Lee: Ray Prim, 1945. My first thought was Maddux, but I guess he didn’t win an ERA title in Chicago.
Prim is proper (and correct).
If Fergie Jenkins hadn’t been so prone to the gopher ball, he might have had a chance (his best ERA finish as a Cub was 9th). In an 11 year span (1967-77), Jenkins was in the top 5 every year for most home runs allowed, including 6 first place finishes. Part of that was pitching a lot of innings, but his HR/9 was still well above league average. His ultra-low BB/9 (he had five 1st place rankings and ranked lower than 3rd only once in 10 seasons 1969-78) would suggest that, to use modern parlance, he “gave in” to hitters, by throwing pitches that were too good when behind in the count.
Fergie’s HR/9IP in road games was high, .915 compared to the MLB average for road games during the years of his career of .773. But at home his HR/9IP was very high, 1.016 compared to the MLB home average of that period of .732. If I’ve run the numbers correctly, Jenkins gave up about 34 more homers on the road than an average of the time pitcher would have (over the same number of career IP), and about 74 more homers at home.
Dutch Leonard question: Babe Adams in 1922, Nolan Ryan in 1987 and Randy Johnson in 2004. Dazzy Vance in 1931 and Roger Clemens in 2005 led their leagues in FIP.
Like Leonard, Babe Adams had an unusual renaissance upon reaching his late 30s and early 40s. After an 87 ERA+ over his age 32-34 seasons, Adams was demoted to A ball for his entire age 35 season, and AA ball for almost his entire age 36 season. But, back in the majors, he averaged over 200 IP and 127 ERA+ aged 37-41, including a 150 ERA+ aged 37-39.
Remaining quiz answers.
Harry Gumbert question: pitcher with two LCS appearances allowing 4+ runs in under 2 IP – Jose Valverde
Lon Warneke question: other two franchise pitchers with .600 W-L% in 1000 IP for each club – Lefty Grove, Mike Mussina
Gene Moore question: first Braves team (and only one before this century) with 3 outfielders with 3.5 WAR – 1965 (Hank Aaron, Felipe Alou, Mack Jones)
Pinky Higgins question: NL player with most consecutive seasons batting .265 with 125 games at 3rd base – Pie Traynor, 12 seasons (1922-33)
Claude Passeau question: other live ball era Cub pitcher with 7 consecutive 13 win seasons with .500+ W-L% – Guy Bush (1928-34) Bush won at least 15 and had a .600+ W-L% in each of those seasons, only to be shipped with Babe Herman to the Pirates (a move that proved to be quite shrewd as neither of those players had much left, despite being just 31 and 32, while the Cubs in return got 7 mostly capable seasons from Larry French).
Bruce Campbell question: only AL outfielder since Campbell to end career with 10 consecutive 75 games seasons of .275 BA and .340 OBP – Kirby Puckett
Skeeter Webb question: live ball era player to eclipse Webb for most career PA with career OPS+ below 50 – Rafael Belliard
I can’t believe that I didn’t think of Valverde.
Must be some sort of protective amnesia.
Doug: Did you use Fangraphs to solve for the Lon Warneke question or did you use BR PI?
Richard — Any answers to the Warneke question would need at least 2,000 career innings and a .600 W%. There are only 16 modern pitchers to do that *and* play for exactly two teams. It turns out that only Warneke, Grove and Mussina even met the “1,000 IP for each team” aspect, regardless of W%.
Thanks John. I used Fangraphs and by using a complicated procedure came up with Warneke, Grove and Mussina. I also found the following additional pitchers who played for just two franchises, with 1000+ IP for each: Barry Zito, Bob Welch, Eppa Rixey, Rube Benton and Tom Glavine.
.
Mel Ott strikes me as very similar to Hank Aaron in the way that he kept on putting up great offensive numbers year after year, without ever having an all-time great season with the bat. Here are their seasonal Rbat numbers from best season to worst, side by side:
Ott / Aaron
63 / 64
62 / 62
61 / 59
61 / 56
57 / 56
52 / 54
49 / 53
47 / 44
45 / 44
40 / 43
40 / 41
37 / 40
37 / 38
33 / 38
31 / 37
29 / 35
25 / 34
20 / 31
1 / 31
-1 / 12
-2 / 4
-10 / 3
NA / -3
Aaron did it for longer and that’s the big difference, but just looking at the best 16 years of their careers, the gap between their respective nth best seasons is never greater than 6 Rbat. In 11 of those years, the gap is no greater than 3.
Nifty analysis, RJ.
Your list reminds me of a comparison that Bill James did of George Sisler to Babe Ruth about which he said something on the lines of this is not to imply that Sisler is as good as Ruth but if you can stand side by side with him and not look ridiculous you’re pretty good. And not only does Ott not look ridiculous when compared to Aaron for about a dozen years there he looks pretty much identical.
Great catch.
.420
246 hits
51 steals
14 strikeouts
And misses the entire next season with sinusitis.
Sisler will be an interesting one when we get to him. As for Ott, it is interesting how comparable he is to Aaron. Ott has always felt to me like I don’t hear enough about him in baseball history for how good he was. I guess that happens when you come along at a time when the Bambino’s shadow is so long, and so guys like him and Jimmie Foxx are relatively obscure to the casual modern fan. I feel like if someone came along and produced like him for the right franchise at the right time, they’d be an immortal. But maybe he’s got a little of the ‘too consistent and never eye-catching’ problem that has plagued guys like Blyleven in terms of getting a good grippy historical narrative. I wonder if maybe Hank Aaron would be at Ott’s level of recognition (ie. a notch or two below where he is now) if he had hit even 50 fewer home runs.
bells @91,
I don’t know if this speaks to your point about Ott’s reputation with the “casual, modern fan,” but my sense is that evaluation of Ott’s career has long been saddled (unfairly) with the observation that he has the severest split between Home HR and Road HR in the history of the game. Even as a kid, I can’t ever remember reading anything about Ott’s status as a member of the 500 HR club, that didn’t refer to the Polo Grounds and the remarkable advantage it gave him as a HR hitter (H:323 R:188).
Of course, what that observation fails to come to grips with is the well-known fact that the Polo Grounds wasn’t really that great of a hitter’s park and that Ott’s Home/Road splits are actually well within the norm (106/94). Ott hit for higher average on the road and actually had more total extra-base hits on the road as well.
The guy is a lights-out, inner-circle immortal.
Just checked out Ott’s career batting splits page on b-ref: man, check out the difference in BAbip: Home .271 / Road .314
The Babip split is partially due to homers not being ‘in play.’
Voomo @96,
Of course. And, one imagines, A LOT of fly ball outs to the alleys and center field.
Sisler basically had two careers, one prior to his missed 1923 season due to his sinus and eye problems and one subsequent to 1923, at his age 30.
His stats prior to 1923:
.361/.404/.510/.914; 4572 PA, 732 R, 60 HR, 612 RBI, 155 OPS+. More than half of his PA were in the dead-ball era.
Subsequent to 1923:
.320/.354/.426/.779; 4440 PA, 552 R, 42 HR, 566 RBI, 97 OPS+.
So it’s another what-if situation.
Mel Ott
Kevin Brown
Lou Boudreau
Ott, Boudreau, Brown.
Campy, Minoso, Mel Harder
Ott’s a no-brainer, but he doesn’t need my vote. Campy and Minnie frequently do.
Mel Harder is one of the best pitchers most people never heard of. Spent his entire 20 year career with the Indians (who weren’t very good most of those years); only Walter Johnson pitched more consecutive seasons with the same team (21). Only Bob Feller won more games for the Indians.
Everyone still talks about Carl Hubbell’s 5 consecutive strikeouts in the 1934 All Star game, but few remember that Harder pitched five scoreless innings to get the win in that game. Mel was an All-Star 4 times and pitched 13 innings without giving up a single run. No other All-Star pitcher can claim more than 10 scoreless innings without surrendering a run. After the 1935 season, Harder suffered with shoulder and elbow issues the rest of his career. That means that he pitched 12 of his 20 years (including 2 of his All-Star seasons) with a bum arm and still did as well as he did. To me, Mel Harder is a perfect example of how the stats don’t tell the whole story. Even on that basis (stats), I’d find him at least as deserving of a spot in the Hall (though I realize the COG has higher standards) than at least a few inducted hurlers. Mel went on to be a great coach for many more years, including one with the Mets in 1964 (he gets extra points for that).
Besides Ott, a number of very good players new to this ballot, though none of them with COG credentials.
For the hitters, Billy Herman and Stan Hack both exceeded 50 WAR, as did Leonard among the pitchers, while four others (Passeau, Harder, Warneke, Walters) were over 40 WAR and another (Lee) was over 30.
Leonard, incidentally, is the only pitcher with two 6 WAR seasons aged 38 or older (and the only pitcher whose only 6 WAR seasons were at that age), both times while pitching less than 250 innings. In 250+ innings, only Cy Young, Phil Niekro and Randy Johnson have done that, so Leonard’s in elite company, however you look at it.
Ott doesn’t need my help, so I’ll give some props to Herman, Hack and Harder.
Mel Ott, Joe Medwick, Kevin Brown
Mel Ott
Minnie
Campy
Ott, Boudreau, Eck
Ott, Killebrew, Campanella
Here’s your first voting update. It takes you through JEV’s vote @43, the 20th vote of the round. Here you are:
18 (90%) – Mel Ott
5 (25%) – Kevin Brown
4 (20%) – Lou Boudreau, Roy Campanella
3 (15%) – Dizzy Dean, Dennis Eckersley, Harmon Killebrew, Minnie Minoso, Eddie Murray, Rick Reuschel
2 (10%) – Mel Harder, Billy Herman, Joe Medwick, Luis Tiant
1 (5%) – Roberto Alomar, Stan Hack, Dave Winfield
It’s nice to do one of these vote updates with 20 people, so I don’t have to type decimal places. Happy voting, and happy Black Friday shopping, if you’re into that!
Ott, Hack, Winfield
Mel Ott, Rick Reuschel, Kevin Brown
Ott, Minoso, reuschel
Mel Ott to win
Dave Winfield to stay alive
Bruce Campbell for presumably being groovy (and don’t really have another strategic vote to make ATM)
Hail to the king, baby.
People have already pointed out that Billy Herman was a pretty nifty player and Stan Hack was as well. I don’t think either of them are quite COG worthy however. I’d have a hard time reconciling the idea of either of them making it and not Nettles or Bell or Randolph or probably half a dozen other guys we’ve already passed on.
My first 2 votes are easy. The 3rd was a toss up with Reuschel & Tiant which I may reconsider.
Ott, Campanella, Minoso
Ott, Boudreau, Brown
Killebrew,Ott, and Medwick
Mace Brown was the 3rd pitcher to ever have a season of
50+ Games
Two starts or less.
55/0 … 1925 . Firpo Marberry
58/2 … 1927 . Garland Braxton
50/2 … 1937 . Mace Brown
53/0 … 1937 . Clint Brown (yes, another Brown, the same year)
Marberry was Braxton’s teammate in 1927.
He logged 56/10.
They both pitched 155.1 innings, tied for 4th on the staff.
Tris Speaker joined Goslin and Rice in the Senators’ outfield that year.
And they got a negative WAR effort out of Walter Johnson.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/WSH/1927.shtml
Muddy
Bucky
Ossie
Goose
Topper
Bennie
Stuffy
Babe
Ollie
Buddy
Lefty
Sloppy
Hod
Bump
Firpo
General
Mel Ott, Dennis Eckersley, Kevin Brown
ott, browm, alomar
@60 Lawrence,
Thanks for the info on Herman.
Ott, Killebrew, and Murray please.
After Ott is elected, we will have 41 remaining spots in the COG
(119, yes?)
There are 27 eligible players to come with at least 68 WAR.
13 on our holdover list.
Lots of good players in purgatory.
And a handful of very special cases like Shoeless Joe.
1. Babe Ruth
2. Ty Cobb
3. Tris Speaker
4. Honus Wagner
5. Rogers Hornsby
6. Eddie Collins
7. Lou Gehrig
8. Nap Lajoie
9. Jimmie Foxx
10. George Davis
11. Charlie Gehringer
12. Bill Dahlen
13. Sam Crawford
14. Paul Waner
15. Harry Heilmann
16. Frankie Frisch
17. Bobby Wallace
18. Luke Appling
19. Ed Delahanty
20. 68.7 … Al Simmons
21. Cy Young
22. Walter Johnson
23. Pete Alexander
24. Lefty Grove
25. Christy Mathewson
26. Eddie Plank
27. 68.4 … Red Faber
I thought it was 122… but that being said, Big Unit will go in in January, and so will Pedro. I’m nor sure about Smoltz. One would think Biggio has a shot. I doubt Piazza will, but he managed over 62% last time on a crowded ballot. That’s up to 5 more spots, and AT LEAST two for sure.
There are 114 players who were elected by the BBWAA. You can see the list here:
http://www.baseball-almanac.com/hof/hofmem4.shtml
I agree that we’ll add at least two more spots in January. And the only serious candidate in the 1970 birth cohort is Jim Thome.
Meanwhile, I doubt everyone on the current holdover list gets elected. Plus I’m doubtful on some of the players on Voomo’s list since they played at least half their career in the 19th century.
Of course, Voomo’s list doesn’t include any of the remaining catchers. And there are players like Carl Hubbell and Joe Cronin who I expect have a very good shot at election.
Pretty sure I omitted the guys who don’t qualify (like Kid Nichols).
Except Delahanty. Good catch, hartvig.
Huh, I was pretty sure I remembered that we had 112 to start with, and since 3 were elected last year I figured it was 115. But that list says 114. But then the baseball HoF site itself says 115:
http://baseballhall.org/hall-of-famers
So I wonder if that site missed someone? I don’t have the patience to look right now. But if it’s 115 now, I expect it to be at least 118 after January 6th (I don’t see how Biggio doesn’t pick up 2 extra votes, and Smoltz should debut with at least 50% and I wouldn’t be surprised if he gets over 75%)… if we carry this out for another year we can dovetail it with the next elections, in which I’d be surprised if a few more don’t get elected (Jr. Griffey of course, and Smoltz if he doesn’t get first-ballot, and then some momentum for Piazza, Bagwell, and oh-god-I-hope Tim Raines). Anyway, I wouldn’t be surprised if we had 121-122 by the time we finish the exercise. I find myself hopeful for more inductees, not just because I think they belong, but because I want more CoG ballots. Ha.
Thanks Bells! The site I linked to is missing Gehrig. Perhaps because he was elected by a special election? Or maybe it’s just an oversight on their part. Either way, Gehrig was elected by the BBWAA so I’m pretty sure the 115 is correct.
You are not counting Gehrig and Clemente; I beleve birtelcom was.
Next in line after your cutoff point:
Fred Clarke
Carl Hubbell
Joe Cronin
Goose Goslin
Home Run Baker
Wes Ferrell
Zack Wheat
Jake Beckley
Stan Coveleski
Dazzy Vance
Sherry Magee
Urban Shocker
Rube Waddell
Jack Quinn
Joe McGinnity
George Sisler
Three-finger Brown
George Uhle
Bill Dickey
Eppa Rixey
Bill Terry
And we still haven’t gotten to Wee Willie Keeler, Gabby Hartnett, Mickey Cochrane or Jimmy Collins
After the original 6 that the BBWAA selected the picked Speaker, Lajoie and Alexander in the next 3 elections. Numbers 10 & 11 were Sisler and Keeler.
I would figure that between 10 and 12 of the guys that I listed will be very serious candidates and about a handful of them to be almost sure things.
Plus I wouldn’t rule out Jim Edmonds from the Class of 1970 either.
From your list Delahanty qualified by birth year but his career was primarily before 1900. I think everyone else meets the qualifications that birtelcom laid down for who we would be considering.
I’d guess if we’re going to bump anyone else of that this it would probably be Faber and then one or more of the shortstops not named Wagner plus maybe Crawford and/or Heilmann.
Even assuming we reach the 119 figure I would figure we are going to end up with anywhere from 3 to 6 players on the outside that are going to take some explaining and probably a couple of dozen more that will generate at least some controversy.
Also Red Ruffing.
This isn’t the Hall of WAR.
But as a reference, 67.5 WAR is 120th place all-time.
Remove the 10 guys who don’t qualify for our exercise (pre-1900), and 120th place is 66.1 WAR.
Here’s who we’ve elected below the benchmark:
67.5 . Ryne Sandberg
67.5 . Ernie Banks
66.5 . Duke Snider
66.3 . Pee Wee Reese (WWII)
65.1 . Craig Biggio
64.4 . Willie McCovey
61.5 . Jackie Robinson (WWII and Exclusion)
59.3 . Yogi Berra (WWII and Catcher)
59.2 . Mike Piazza (Catcher)
57.5 . Hank Greenberg (WWII)
57.1 . Joe Gordon (WWII)
The Redemption candidates above the benchmark:
71.6 . Rafael Palmiero (viagra and moustache)
68.7 . Don Sutton (compiler with a bad perm)
68.0 . Graig Nettles (low batting average)
_____
The guys above 64:
66.9 . Dwight Evans
66.1 . Buddy Bell
65.5 . Willie Randolph
64.5 . Andre Dawson
64.5 . Reggie Smith (8051 PA)
There’s also the factor of Alex Rodriguez, Albert Pujols, Chipper Jones, Pedro Martinez, Adrian Beltre, Jim Thome, Derek Jeter, Scott Rolen, Manny Ramirez, Ivan Rodriguez, and Carlos Beltran.
Those 11 guys aren’t eligible (though some of them will be before we are finished).
But subtract those guys and 120th place is 64 WAR.
We’ve also elected several pitchers below that WAR line in the sand:
Smoltz (67 WAR)
Feller (65)
Marichal (62)
Rivera (57)
Whitey (54)
Koufax (53)
Thanks. I sensed something was amiss. Didn’t see there was a “Sheet #2.”
David Horwich @79 reminded me of Ted Lyons who was yet to be mentioned as a potential COGer. 67.2 pitching WAR + 4.4 batting + missed time due to WWII (granted he was already in his 40s but he was coming off a 4.7 WAR season plus led the league in ERA and ERA+).
In 1942 Lyons completed all his 20 starts. He is the last pitcher to do so with a minimum of 20 starts. 13 of those starts were on Sunday.
Lyons started the first game of a double header 15 times, if I’m counting right.
Another thing I noticed is that well over half the White Sox games that year lasted less than two hours, and the longest that didn’t go into extra innings was 2:31. One of Lyons’ games had a score of 14-2 and lasted 1:56, in spite of having no HRs and only five doubles among the 24 hits.
Looks like he started the first game of a DH 14 times. He completed all 5 starts of his final season in 1946 and his last 3 in 1941. So he completed the last 28 starts of his career.
It would be really interesting to see Lyons’ times-through-the-order splits for the years he only pitched once a week but completed most of those games. We only have a 22-game sample for that split–but in that limited sample he was lights out 4th-time-thru (77 tOPS+ against).
Ott, Killer, Eck
Ott, Killer, Eck
Not noted here so far, I think, is the fact that Bucky Walters not only got into organized baseball rather late but came up to the majors as a third baseman and was only shifted to the mound in 1935. For the period from 1935 to 1949 he had the most WAR of any pitcher, partially because he didn’t get called for military service, true. But had he started earlier and been a hurler all along, his record might be something more immediately impressive.
Mel Harder deserves a look, too. For a period of three years in the mid-thirties, he was as good as anyone, and the rest of his career isn’t too shabby either.
Lon Warneke and Bill Lee, Billy Herman and Stan Hack—along with Hartnett the core of the great Cubs team of the 1930’s.
Harder pitched 20 seasons all with the Indians and never made the postseason. In an ironic twist, the team won the WS the year after he retired.
Are there any single franchise players who can match or better Harder’s “feat”? (Banks by the way only played 19 seasons).
Luke Appling matches Harder.
…and Ted Lyons at 21 years surpasses both Harder and Appling.
Thanks again David H! You’re all over my questions. 🙂
Happy to help. Of course I hardly need mention that Lyons and Appling were teammmates for many years. And then Banks with 19 years…it’s a Chicago thing, I guess.
Joe DiMaggio called Harder the toughest pitcher he ever faced.
Harder definitely dominated DiMaggio (.OPS in 25 PA). Oddly, all of their matchups took place after Harder’s prime (40, 41, 42 and 47).
David P:
Matchup records only go back to 1940 at the present time.
Stan Musial didn’t better Harder in that his Cardinals made the post-season in each of Musial’s first four full seasons (the Cards missed the post-season in the year Stan lost to military service).
But, after that, Musial played 17 more seasons without a post-season appearance and, like Harder’s Indians, the Cards won the WS the year after Musial retired.
Ott, Alomar, Miñoso.
Ott, Killebrew, and Murray. What can I say? I like home runs.
Ott, Killebrew and Minoso.
Ott, Murray, Eckersley.
Ott, Boudreau, Campanella.
@98 Voomo
Not meaning to quibble, but I don’t get that WWII service lessened Yogi’s career totals in any meaninful way. I mean he debuted after the war at age 21. Probably about when he would have debuted, regardless.
You can quibble. I remembered from reading Yogi’s autobiography that he had served. Forgot when. He was 18 and 19.
Bill Dickey served those same two years, at age 37 and 38.
General comment about WAR. Most of the discussion that enriches this site would be absent if we simply relied on WAR as the sole arbiter of our rankings and our votes. Instead, we use WAR as an important data point, but not the only criteria. We adjust for era, we adjust for impact, we adjust for whether they lost time to the war, and, in several cases, we adjust when we have short careers with exceptional peaks. We presently have 18 COG members below the 67.5 WAR “Cutoff” and several we all considered non-controversial “first ballot”. We’ve only had a “value of WAR” debate on a few of them, with Ford being the notable exception. For Voomo’s list @99 for redemption round possibilities, several of them aren’t really contenders, regardless of their WAR.
So, back ti the important stuff. Ott, clearly the class of this field, Boudreau, and back to Killer.
Ott, Murray, and Reuschel
Ott – I remember seeing his HR splits a long time ago and figuring he was a home park creation, not realizing how good he actually was. But of course, his road numbers are great too, basically trading HR for 2B and 3B, with a few less walks. Still, the 323 vs 188 H/R HR split is interesting history.
Brown – Not sure if he’ll ever win here, since there are a large number of “no chance in hell I vote for Kevin Brown” voters (that is my recollection of past threads at least), but I still think he’s clearly at the top of the pitcher list.
Boudreau – Gordon got in, and as noted many times, Boudreau is a very similar player with fascinating differences (war credit vs war playing).
Ott had 0 career homeruns in 317 career PAs in Shibe Park. Plus a .220 batting average. I don’t know much about Shibe Park but I’m guessing it was devastating on left-handed hitters.
During Ott’s playing years at Shibe Park, 1938-1946, the overall BA for LH batters was .281. That does not include pitchers unless they were PH and does not include switch-hitters when they batted left-handed. Also see my post #23.
During that same time period at Shibe there were 96 pitchers who batted left-handed and came to the plate. Their overall BA was .215. If you placed Ott on that list he would be in 46th place.
You can see a diagram of Shibe Park here:
http://andrewclem.com/Baseball/ShibePark.html
Additional data here:
http://www.seamheads.com/ballparks/ballpark.php?parkID=PHI11
What strikes me is how “boxy” the dimensions are compared to modern stadiums, and how deep it is to dead center.
But most of all, there was a 34′ high fence in RF. That’ll cut down on HRs by LH batters, to be sure.
There’s a story behind that right field fence. There was a row of townhomes behind that fence. The original height of it was low and there was an excellent view of the field. Accordingly many people watched the games for free from the rooftops. Then the owners started charging people for seats there at less than Shibe Park prices and it became a very lucrative business. After the depression began and the A’s revenues declined the Shibe family deliberately raised the fence height to 34 feet and the view from the townhouses was blocked. It was termed the “spite fence” and was incorrectly blamed solely on Connie Mack.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shibe_Park
Alomar, Tiant, Winfield
Tally note: the ballot @ 88 hasn’t been tallied.
Minoso, Dean, Herman
Voting update! This covers us through David Horwich’s vote @114, and includes his correction @115:
38 (92.68%) – Mel Ott
11 (26.83%) – Kevin Brown
9 (21.95%) – Lou Boudreau, Harmon Killebrew
7 (17.07%) – Minnie Minoso, Eddie Murray
6 (14.63%) – Roy Campanella, Dennis Eckersley, Rick Reuschel
4 (9.76%) – Roberto Alomar, Dave Winfield
3 (7.32%) – Dizzy Dean, Joe Medwick, Luis Tiant
2 (4.88%) – Stan Hack, Mel Harder, Billy Herman
1 (2.44%) – Bruce Campbell (presumably not the one from the Evil Dead series)
We may seriously be looking at some guys falling off the holdover list: all three of the guys currently at 3 votes are in serious danger, with over half of all ballots cast already, and a wide gap between what they have and where they need to be. It also doesn’t look good for the newcomers, as none (besides Ott) has more than 2 votes.
Brown, Tiant, Alomar
Since Master Melvin appears to be in control, time to help worthies in need. With limited free slots and lots of fine second basemen, Herman may become the odd man out at that position (although I do get his WWII credit case).
Ott, Murray, Alomar
Vote:
Lou Boudreau
Eddie Murray
Dave Winfield
_____
I’ve been with Boudreau all along.
His value stats for a 7,000 PA career are superior, even when compared to the peak 7,000 PA of most of the other holdovers.
That and the narrative. Player/manager at age 24?
As a shortstop?
Navigating Doby in ’47.
Winning it all as the best in the game in ’48.
I love the story, and he’ll get my vote every week until he’s elected.
____
And, on the other side of it, right now I’m seeing just how amazing it is to log 12,000+ PA. Sure, Murray and Winfield got some help from the DH at the end.
But Eddie lived up to his steady name, for a long, long time.
And Winfield was just born great, and likely could have been a hall of famer in several other sports.
That, and he’s one of the few layers I can say that I watched up close, and a lot. I was a regular in the RF bleachers in the Stadium in the mid-late 80’s. Dave! Dave! Dave!
He was great. And great on defense, too.
Ott, Killebrew, Medwick
Ott, Brown, Tiant
Mel Ott
Lou Boudreau
Rick Reuschel
Ott, Minoso, Tiant
Dizzy Dean, Harmon Killebrew; Mel Ott
Most Wins Above Average, excluding negative seasonal totals:
Ott 72.5
Brown 43.3
Boudreau 42.3
Reuschel 40.6
Tiant 37.5
Alomar 37.1
Eckersley 34.3
Murray 33.7
Killebrew 33.0
Winfield 31.1
Minoso 30.6
Medwick 30.2
Dean 27.9
Herman 27.4
Hack 25.4
Walters 24.5
Leonard 24.4
Harder 23.2
Warneke 21.3
Campanella 19.2
1909 is rich with talent, both at the top and in terms of borderline Hall of Famers who deserve honorable mention in Circle of Greats discussion.
Mel Ott was worth as many positive WAA as Hall of Famers Campanella and Dean and near-Hall-of-Famer Hack combined. Also, my three-year-old son has a new stuffed animal named Mel Otter.
Ott, Brown, Boudreau
Bryan O’Connor, could you give me a short argument for ignoring negative WAA seasons? Or point me to a long one? I’ve been struggling with this issue in my own rating system, and I’m looking for help.
I’ve read Adam Darowski’s (short) rationale for ignoring negative WAA in the Hall of Stats ratings. Somehow, it seems more acceptable in a system that combines WAR with WAA, than it does in a your pure-WAA tallies.
Obviously, most players have some negative WAA years at the start or end of their careers. Those seem easier to dismiss than those that come in the midst of their prime, like Campanella in ’54, McCovey in ’64, or Wynn in ’71.
I’ve never been completely happy with defining peak as “best N seasons” — partly because N is arbitrary, and partly because it requires so much legwork to calculate. I’m more interested in melding career totals with rates — but the rates do get distorted by “hang-around” years. And I haven’t found a solution for that which will work in a bulk approach, rather than massaging every player’s yearly stats.
John, if you’ve read Adam’s rationale, I don’t have much to add, since I stole the idea from him. I don’t think bad seasons early (think Roy Halladay) or late (Craig Biggio) in a career diminish what those players were able to accomplish in their primes.
Using WAA rather than WAR emphasizes excellence, rather than mere utility, in evaluating a player’s CoG case. I think ignoring the really bad seasons does the same.
I know it will surprise some but I have Boudreau as #2 on this ballot. That said, he’s not getting in and he doesn’t need additional rounds to avoid falling off so there’s little reason to actually vote for him.
Ott, Winfield, Campanella
Steve’s vote @141 is mis-tallied on the spreadsheet; it shows a vote for Medwick instead of Ott.
Given that correction, this is a vote update through mosc @145 (52 votes):
48 (92.31%) – Mel Ott
15 (28.85%) – Kevin Brown
13 (25.00%) – Lou Boudreau
11 (21.15%) – Harmon Killebrew
9 (17.31%) – Minnie Minoso, Eddie Murray
8 (15.38%) – Roy Campanella
7 (13.46%) – Rick Reuschel, Dave Winfield
6 (11.54%) – Roberto Alomar, Dennis Eckersley, Luis Tiant
5 (9.62%) – Dizzy Dean
4 (7.69%) – Joe Medwick
3 (5.77%) – Billy Herman
2 (3.85%) – Stan Hack, Mel Harder
1 (1.92%) – Bruce Campbell
Still some guys (Medwick and Dean, in particular), who may be in danger of falling off the holdover list. Given how big it’s grown (and given the upcoming Redemption Round), that might not be the worst thing, but it’ll be interesting.
Steve’s vote @141 is mis-tallied on the spreadsheet; it shows a vote for Medwick instead of Ott.
Given that correction, this is a vote update through mosc @145 (52 votes):
48 (92.31%) – Mel Ott
15 (28.85%) – Kevin Brown
13 (25.00%) – Lou Boudreau
11 (21.15%) – Harmon Killebrew
9 (17.31%) – Minnie Minoso, Eddie Murray
8 (15.38%) – Roy Campanella
7 (13.46%) – Rick Reuschel, Dave Winfield
6 (11.54%) – Roberto Alomar, Dennis Eckersley, Luis Tiant
5 (9.62%) – Dizzy Dean
4 (7.69%) – Joe Medwick
3 (5.77%) – Billy Herman
2 (3.85%) – Stan Hack, Mel Harder
1 (1.92%) – Bruce Campbell
Still some guys (Medwick and Dean, in particular), who may be in danger of falling off the holdover list. Given how big it’s grown (and given the upcoming Redemption Round), that might not be the worst thing, but it’ll be interesting to see what happens.
Thanks for the correction, Dr. D. Fixed. Inputting those tallies with the mobile device is trickier than with the good old PC.
Agreed. My own computer died completely, so I’ve been using a combination of my wife’s, my work computer, and my cell. The last of the three is the most annoying, by far!!!
Ott, Winfield, Killebrew
Tiant and Minoso are currently on the HOF Veterans “redemption” ballot, too.
But you win the HOF’s “redemption” ballot, you’re in the Hall. Win the COG redemption ballot and all you get is back on the main ballot, where you still have to win induction the same way as everyone else. To me that’s one of the main structural advantages of the COG process over the HOF process — although we have a reconsideration procedure, there is no back door into the COG.
Murray, Ott, Alomar
Ott, Hack and Miñoso.
Not sure if JS is a new moniker for a past voter, but if not, welcome to the Circle of Greats voting!
Ott needs no help so I’m voting for ALOMAR-DEAN-MURRAY
Messrs. Ott, Eckersley, Boudreau
Eckersley, Ott, Winfield
Mel Ott, Dave Winfield, Dizzy Dean
Ott, Boudreau, Tiant
Waiting on hold for customer support… so what better to do than send out a Wednesday morning vote update?!?
This takes us through Low T’s vote @172:
53 (88.53%) – Mel Ott
14 (23.33%) – Lou Boudreau, Kevin Brown
12 (20.00%) – Harmon Killebrew
11 (18.33%) – Eddie Murray
10 (16.67%) – Minnie Minoso
9 (15.00%) – Dave Winfield
8 (13.33%) – Roberto Alomar, Dennis Eckersley
7 (11.67%) – Roy Campanella, Dizzy Dean, Rick Reuschel, Luis Tiant
4 (6.67%) – Joe Medwick
3 (5.00%) – Stan Hack, Billy Herman
2 (3.33%) – Mel Harder
1 (1.67%) – Bruce Campbell
The race for 25% is on. Usually, 18 votes will do it, and we’re only waiting on ~7 more. So only Murray with a big push and up are probably still in it. Boudreau and Brown could certainly get there, but they need lots of help.
On the 10% side of things, Medwick is in VERY serious danger of falling off (which, as I mentioned above, wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world, as we have a Redemption Round coming up and we need to have culled a bit sooner or later. Interesting to see if Ducky Wucky has lost the favor of the electorate, though.
Mel Ott, who would raise his foot above his hands before swinging, seems safe. I have no objection to his induction.
Killebrew
Murray
and
J.Dean
Minoso looks locked in between 10% and 25%, so I’ll spread my votes to someone who is closer to the 10% line.
Ott, Alomar, Campanella.
Tiant, Reuschel, Brown
Join the crowd:
– Mel Ott
Make sure that he stays on the ballot:
– Luis Tiant
A probably futile attempt to keep him on the ballot:
– Joe Medwick
Here’s a voting update, through our 64th ballot, which was Lawrence @177, now that people’s votes are “locked in:”
55 (85.94%) – Mel Ott
15 (23.44%) – Kevin Brown
14 (21.88%) – Lou Boudreau
13 (20.31%) – Harmon Killebrew
12 (18.75%) – Eddie Murray
10 (15.63%) – Minnie Minoso
9 (14.06%) – Roberto Alomar, Luis Tiant, Dave Winfield
8 (12.50%) – Roy Campanella, Dizzy Dean, Dennis Eckersley, Rick Reuschel
5 (7.81%) – Joe Medwick
3 (4.69%) – Stan Hack, Billy Herman
2 (3.13%) – Mel Harder
1 (1.56%) – Bruce Campbell
Medwick will need at least two more votes to stay alive (probably three more to be safe). Kevin Brown will need at least three more to reach 25%. That’s really all the news that’s out there at this point.
I’m surprised that Medwick has stuck around for 4 ballots. I’m glad there’s another redemption round coming up in the not too distant future plus a really strong 1907 to get some fresh faces on the holdover list.
I’ll cast my first ballot for somebody I don’t really think belongs (billy herman), just to make the point that I think he’s better than Dean or Medwick.
Brown, Tiant, Herman
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Ott, Boudreau, Medwick
Trying to save Ducky and get another year for Lou
For the 1909 election, I’m voting for:
-Roberto Alomar
-Eddie Murray
-Dave Winfield
Other top candidates I considered highly (and/or will consider in future rounds):
-Ott
-Eckersley
-Killebrew
-Brown
-Boudreau
-Reuschel
-Tiant
-Medwick
Medwick
Winfield
Campanella
Ott, Killebrew, Winfield.
Guess I should have checked the time before I bothered casting that vote…
Sorry about the latest delay in the COG voting — caught up in a round-the clock few days at work, the culmination (I hope) of a long-planned project. Will be back to the COG later this week.
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