We need a quick runoff vote to resolve the tie at the top in the 1905 voting. Voting closes Wednesday Friday night, so vote early. More after the jump.
Roberto Alomar’s career WAR, according to baseball-reference, was 66.8; Joe Cronin’s was a virtual identical 66.4. At Adam Darowski’s Hall of Stats, Alomar’s “Hall Number” is 125; so is Joe Cronin’s. Your decision between these two, born more than 60 years apart, may have to be based on factors other than a simple Wins Above Replacement comparison.
However you decide, your ballot in this runoff round, unlike the usual three-name ballot, should identify just one name, Alomar’s or Cronin’s. You will also need to add at least a little bit of extra verbiage though, because the WordPress engine that supports the site won’t accept comments of only one or two words. This is a short-deadline runoff election. All votes must be in by 11:59PM EST on Wednesday Friday night, February 11 13. If the result of this runoff is still a tie, the tie-breaker will give the win to the candidate who received the most runoff votes immediately before the very last runoff vote cast. So it may not be advisable to wait till the end of the runoff period to cast your vote, because if your vote happens to be the last one cast, your vote may not count for tiebreaker purposes. If you would like to keep track of the vote tally for the runoff, you can check this tally spreadsheet: COG 1905 Runoff Vote Tally.
Since I promised him a vote, it’ll be Cronin for me.
I vote for Joe Cronin
Voting for Alomar
Cronin’s managing would be my tiebreaker in a vacuum, but Robbie’s just been on the ballot much longer.
VOTE: Alomar
Cronin. The bottom of his Wikipedia page has:
Boston Red Sox Hall of Fame
Bay Area Sports Hall of Fame
List of major league players with 2,000 hits
List of Major League Baseball players with 400 doubles
List of Major League Baseball players with 100 triples
List of Major League Baseball players with 1000 runs
List of Major League Baseball players with 1000 RBI
List of Major League Baseball doubles champions
List of Major League Baseball triples champions
List of Major League Baseball player–managers
Hitting for the cycle
The following players have achieved the stats below:
2000+ hits
500+ doubles
100+ triples
1000+ R
1000+ RBI
Hit for the cycle
Led his league in seasonal doubles or triples at least once
Joe Cronin
Charlie Gehringer
Paul Molitor
Stan Musial
George Brett
Robin Yount
Lou Gehrig
Joe Medwick
I’ve got to go (narrowly) with Cronin.
OPS+ and peak WAR not much help. BA? Virtual tie.
I’m going to go with bstar and vote for Alomar because he’s been on the ballot for so long. Cronin will have at least a few more shots.
Alomar. He’s been on the ballot long enough.
*****
This is the 3rd runoff election. Previous occurrences:
1941 election, Ryan and Rose. Rose’s first appearance on the ballot. They tied at 26 in the regular election, Ryan won the runoff, 33-31. Rose made the CoG two ballots later.
1924 election, Smoltz and Snider. Tied at 27 in the regular election, Smoltz won the runoff 33-32. Snider was elected on the next ballot.
Joe Cronin..and here’s some extra verbiage.
Vote:
Alomar.
Because then we get to talk about Cronin for at least another week.
Whereas the Alomar convo has petered out to random Mets’ fan tourettes.
Alomar (Roberto, not Sandy).
and not the other Sandy.
Joe Cronin. (And strictly on merits — no Mets-ism involved.)
Interesting park-effects schism for Cronin, his career split between Griffith Stadium and Fenway.
— From 1929-34, he hit 39 of his 51 HRs on the road, the highest percentage among those with 50+ HRs those years.
— Then, from 1937-41, he hit 58 of 94 at home (and at least 16 HRs each year), 3rd-highest rate among those with 80+ HRs.
The most interesting part is in between, his 1935-36 years in Boston. Cronin totaled just 11 HRs in those years. He did miss some time in ’36, but still, it obviously took a while for him to make the adjustment and take full advantage of his new climate.
BTW, Cronin in his 6 full Washington years averaged 223 R+RBI per 162 G, and 215 in 7 full Boston years. He was younger, of course, but those Sens had some good offensive teams.
John, I don’t know what it was specifically, but Cronin was really hobbling his first few years in Boston. Apparently he had to go down on one knee to field every groundball, which infuriated some of the hotheads on the Sox staff. You can’t really see it in his Total Zone numbers, but DRA paints a picture of a guy too injured to be playing short his first few years in Boston:
Cronin DRA fielding runs
1930 +14 (WASHINGTON)
1931 +45
1932 +24
1933 +15
1934 +26
—-
1935 -22 (BOSTON)
1936 -2
1937 -26
—-
1938 +10
1939 -11
1940 +3
1941 -2
Those numbers are extreme but they fit his narrative better. What I’m suggesting is the injuries in Boston may have sapped his power also.
Excellent work there, bstar! However … you knew I’d have a “however” … Cronin did hit 14 triples in ’35, first by 5 among BoSox, also led them in XBH by 13. His power was more off in ’36, but he also broke his thumb that year, and missed about half the year. So I’m not sure the D stats really tie in with his modest HR total.
They’re both qualified and will go in. But Robbie’s been on the ballot way too long. Voting for Cronin makes 0 sense.
In case that’s not clear enough…Alomar.
Even if someone thinks they’re both equally well qualified I can think of a couple of reasons they might want to vote for Cronin over Alomar
1) In a few more rounds Alomar will overtake Biggio as the all time #1 voter getter on Dr. Doom’s list
2) If Cronin doesn’t get in prior to the upcoming 1903 ballot he has only 3 rounds (as of this moment) of accrued eligibility to see him thru vs. 6 for Alomar.
I don’t know that either reason is a particularly good one but if you’re down to a coin toss…
I also think that whoever gets in will have done so with being named on both the lowest % of ballots (33.87) and with the lowest total # of votes (21) so far. The lowest previous % I could find was Ron Santo with 34.92% and 22 votes. Marichal was elected with 24 votes and Biggio, Lofton, Banks, Reese and Gordon had 25. All had over 35% of the vote.
I’m supporting Alomar.
Joe Cronin. Not the greatest executive, but a great shortstop.
Cronin. Alomar didn’t just suck in New York; he dogged it. I won’t vote for anybody who got their millions and then slept-walked through the remainder of their career. Alomar hit .266 at the age of 34. At age 34, Cronin hit .311, was an All-Star and got some MVP votes as well. I just don’t see a case to be made for Alomar. I don’t. Sure, he’s gonna get in. But he shouldn’t. Sorry there seems to be an anti-Mets fan bias among some. But we saw Robbie for what he was. And wasn’t. He wasn’t HOF worthy. He isn’t COG worthy.
Cronin.
Joe Cronin.
Why is there a requirement for a post longer than 2 words?
I think it is some sort of spam prevention thing.
I’ve voted for Alomar a lot, so Alomar.
Splitting hairs and going with the better base runner, Roberto Alomar
I’ll go with Alomar
Votin for Cronin
I vote for Roberto Alomar.
If my count is correct, I’ve been voting to keep Alomar on the ballot for over two years and have voted for him 39 times (including a few that were “unofficial” because I joined up late).
So I will vote for ALOMAR again and hope to keep it at a good round number of 40 votes.
I’ve been an Alomar supporter, so I vote for him.
I will vote for Joe Cronin
I’ll go with Alomar.
Both had near equal value for their careers, Alomar had more longevity and Cronin more peak. Would like more dialogue about Cronin’s on-the-field exploits – not very interested in his managerial/executive roles.
Dave, I guess I bring up his managing because I think he would have put up better numbers had he not been tasked with running the club on the field also, especially at such a young age. So it’s not so much credit for being manager per se as it a belief that he would have been a slightly better player without it. Maybe, maybe not.
That, and I think he would have stayed a regular a couple years longer had he not been performing other duties. His numbers right before he basically relegated himself to pinch-hitting duties support that claim.
Managing didn’t slow Fred Clarke down! ‘Course, there were fewer pitching changes back in 1911… 🙂
Roberto Alomar.
When I was a youngster, he was one of my favorites. Glad to see him elected to the Hall of Fame, and I truly think he belongs in the Circle of Greats.
I honestly don´t understand all the Mets fans´ bitterness against him.
Luis, that’s all it is, a bit of bitterness. Most Mets fans agree that Roberto is a Hall of Famer. It’s just … He’d been so good, for so long, every blessed year. We’d see him on TV every October, hitting .313 in the postseason, slashing doubles, stealing bases and base hits. We wanted to see this special player in our lineup. And then we get him — “YAYYY!!!” — and … nothing. How did he go from .336-20-100-30 steals to replacement-level, overnight? It’s just a bummer.
Some Mets fans still take it personally. I don’t, not really — I just have no energy to celebrate his career. But if he gets into a COG runoff against Carlos Baerga, I’ve got his back. 🙂
Kind of when Brian Giles was acquired by the Padres. An elite player the previous few years who forgot how hit homeruns. Well, at least he had some decent seasons in San Diego.
And speaking of San Diego…wow… Impresionante pretemporada!
¡De acuerdo, muchos fichajes interesantes! I’m looking forward to seeing how it all works out.
RJ, I´m taking my family to a Giants pre-season game in AT&T Park next month, can you give me some advice regarding parking, freeways, sightseeing or something?
Thanks!
Luis: Unfortunately I’m not local. It’s been a few years since I was last in the Bay Area, and whenever I did go to the ballpark it was on the train, so I don’t know a whole lot about the parking situation. There’s some travel info on the Giants website:
http://sanfrancisco.giants.mlb.com/sf/ballpark/directions/index.jsp
There’s also a collection of frequently asked questions about visiting the ballpark here:
http://www.reddit.com/r/SFGiants/comments/u40jk/we_get_this_questions_a_lot_so_lets_try_a_faq_att/
I don’t know if you use reddit, but the Giants section (www.reddit.com/r/SFGiants) is really friendly and full of people who actually live in San Francisco who can probably give you better advice than me!
One note on the tourist front: my favourite thing to visit as a youngster was the Musée Mécanique on Fisherman’s Wharf, which is a museum of arcade games (mechanical and video) from the 20th century. My favourite thing there was this old mechanical baseball game. (https://c1.staticflickr.com/3/2451/3942383933_57d47d2d80_z.jpg). I spent many a quarter in that thing!
Sorry I couldn’t be of more help. AT&T Park is beautiful though and you get a good view from pretty much anywhere, so I have no doubt it’ll be a great experience. I hope you enjoy the trip!
@98
Luis: I live in the SF suburbs but I haven’t gone to AT&T park yet, mainly because the Yankees haven’t payed there while I have been living in the area. There is much sightseeing to do: Fisherman’s Wharf, Alcatraz, the Exploratorium, museums, Chinatown, theaters, etc. Visitor guides are readily available. When I am in the area I like to eat lunch at Lefty O’Doul’s restaurant in the downtown area.
@RC: And here I imagined you living somewhere inside Yankee Stadium!
RJ & RC, that is a lot of help, thank you guys. We´ve never been in San Francisco before, so all the info we had regarding sightseeing and stuff, comes from web sites. I just wanted to know first hand from baseball junkies like me, what places to visit during our stay.
RJ, I kind of remember that you live abroad, just wasn´t sure if you were formerly living there.
Richard, it´s hard to imagine a baseball lover (and you must be one to read sites like this) living near a major league stadium and never going to games there, specially with the quality of baseball displayed in the last few years. I´m sure you have your reasons and it´s not criticism. I checked the web site for the O´Doul´s Restaurant and it seems like a nice place to eat.
When I first started to get acquainted to the English language, the first baseball magazine I bought was a magazine named “The Show” with Ryne Sandberg in the cover. Besides the stats for that season (88?), was a feature on Lefty O´Doul. His biography was the first piece of historic information that I learned by reading in English. I was 13 at the time…I turned 40 yesterday.
¡Feliz cumpleaños Luis!
When I first started commenting on HHS I was living in Spain, and on my first day there I accidentally wished a friend of a friend “feliz navidad” instead of “feliz cumpleaños”. My Spanish has got very rusty since I moved back to the UK, but it’s improved from that low point. (Incidentally I recently discovered baseball-reference’s Spanish baseball dictionary, which I’ve bookmarked for future reference: http://www.baseball-reference.com/friv/English_to_Spanish.pdf)
My Giants fandom comes from spending my summers in San Francisco every year from 2003-2009. My Dad still lives out there.
Bitterness, nothing. Can you tell the difference, in watching a player day in day out, between a player whose skill has eroded due to age and a player who just doesn’t give a damn anymore? I can. Alomar completely dogged it when he came to New York. He put forth ZERO effort. He didn’t care anymore. And why should he? He had his millions. I never saw Cronin play, but his numbers tell me he gave his all to the end. Alomar, not so much. The truly great give all they have to give even when there’s nothing left in the tank. I watched Pete Rose and he did. I watched Barry Bonds and he did. I watched Hank Aaron and Willie Mays and they did. I watched Gil Hodges and he did. I watched Sandy Koufax and he did. I watched Ernie Banks and he did. Alomar did not. Alomar was like Chris Brown with talent. “Ooh, I sprained my eyelid, coach.” Heck, even Carlos Baerga and Luis Castillo put forth a better effort in New York. Had Gil Hodges been managing the Mets at the time, he’d have walked out to second base and pulled Alomar like he did Cleon Jones. I’d sooner put George Theodore in the Circle; at least I know he gave it everything he had every day.
Stubby, you speak with clarity and passion and i can’t argue with what you saw.
But how can we really reduce another man’s intentions that assuredly? His Dad, who played the same position, was done at 34. Very likely some aspect of relevance in there, either genetically or psychologically.
Or maybe you’re right, and he did just lose the passion for it after being traded. He’d moved around. But at 33 maybe he didnt want to be told to move to New York.
He’d played with his brother in Cleveland. And he’s just won a division title with Lofton, Thome, and Juan Gone surrounding him in the lineup. While part of an historically good defensive infield.
Still, though, why would an otherwise healthy 34 year old man decide he would be happier being lazy, and sucking, in New York?
Voomo, I think that you’re right in saying that Alomar was just worn down by the time he got to the Mets. His style of play, both offensively and defensively, would take a physical toll on anyone. I’m not sure why Stubby is so harsh on him in particular; he’s 3rd all-time in games at second base!
Oh, and you may be mistaken about the timing of the “historically good defensive infield”. Were you thinking of the 2000 Cleveland team, who committed only 72 errors? Or perhaps you were conflating them with the ’99 Mets, who had just 68 gaffes (and a mere 27 by their starting infield)?
Daniel Longmire:
I guess he’s speaking of Vizquel, Fryman, and Thome?
Nice job by Charlie Manual, once again, of taking a great team……Ah, why be negative?
Everyone’s free to interpret what he saw from Alomar with the Mets. But thinking that “he didn’t care” because “he had his millions” … I cannot find the logic there.
Before his last year in Cleveland, Alomar had earned $53 million, and was already guaranteed $23 million more. He played great that year. It’s hard to imagine .336-20-100, 30 steals, without a mighty effort.
His contract status didn’t change when he joined the Mets. Why would his motivation have been different? Why do you think he tried in ’01, but not in ’02?
Alomar would hit free agency again after 2 years with the Mets, age 35. Few are the players I’ve seen not give a damn about their *next* contract. And if he didn’t care, why would he bother playing for a mere $1 million in ’04?
As for sprained eyelids, he played 149 games in ’02, 2nd on the Mets, and 140 in ’03.
I’m not usually one to rise to Robby’s defense, but geez.
You forget the endorsement deals Alomar garnered in New York, where he made far more money than he ever could in Cleveland or Toronto.
Willie Mays was fairly pedestrian–godawful at times–when he returned to New York. But he never ever gave me the impression he wasn’t giving it his all every time he was on the field. Alomar just didn’t–offensively or defensively. He gave every appearance of somebody who just didn’t give a crap. I think even Richie Hebner put forth a better effort in New York. The “sprained eyelid” comment had to do with Chris Brown who had a lot of God given talent, but always acted as though he’d rather be anywhere else than on a baseball diamond. If you recall, Brown did beg some time off for a sprained eyelid (just one of his many ridiculous excuses). The difference being that Alomar would play but completely without effort. Maybe he got into drugs or something in New York. I dunno. But saying he was lackadaisical in New York would be an understatement. Spitting on people shouldn’t win you any votes either.
@63,
I sincerely doubt that you can somehow divine whether a player is not putting forth their full effort, or is simply declining because they are getter older. I’ve heard this sort of comment innumerable times in my time as a sports fan, but unless a MLB player does something obvious like not running out a ground ball or going after a fly ball, who can really tell if they are not putting forth the effort??
All MLB players decline as they get older, but some do it very gradually, while others do it quite dramatically, often falling off the proverbial cliff, as Alomar appears to have with the Mets.
Agreed Lawrence! We could just as easily say the same about George Foster for example. He was coming off a 150 OPS+, 3rd place MVP finish when he joined the Mets. His first two years, he put up OPS+ of 90 and 95. And he was a year younger than Alomar when he joined the Mets.
Or how about Jason Bay, coming off an age 30 season of OPS+ 134 and 7th place MVP finish. Joins the Mets and promptly puts up seasons of OPS+ 105, 97 and 48.
Those are just a few examples from the Mets. I’m sure there are plenty of examples from other organizations.
Quite frankly, randomly accusing someone of dogging it or being on drugs is crass and below the level of discussion on this site.
I think it’s good that we keep in mind that we are not only talking about real people but real people who might actually read and respond to what we have to say (as in the case of Schilling & Lou Boudreau’s son).
I also love that this sight is almost entirely free of the juvenile name calling and trolling that you find on so many sports related sights. I actually found my way here in part because on another sight I was frequenting someone actually threatened to kill another commenter and nothing was done about it.
All that said, I don’t think that saying that you don’t think that a player was giving their best effort- especially if you actually saw them play in person where you can see what they do when the camera isn’t focused on them- is in any way beyond the pale or off-limits just as it’s fine for someone to challenge that assumption and ask for evidence or examples or present a counter-argument.
I’m all for civility but since we’re talking about players who not only played in different cities and leagues (I grew up 758 miles from the closest National League ballpark) but across different generations as well I value the honest opinions of anyone who actually saw these guys play on a semi-regular basis.
Hartvig, Lou Boudreau’s son? Do you remember which thread he commented on?
ALSO: Dick Radatz’s son stopped by a couple times.
@104:
George McQuinn’s father-in-law contributed some meaningful comments,
bstar- No I don’t but I wasn’t involved with him on the conversation thread either. It’s even possible it may have even taken place on Dugout Central way back when it was affiliated with Baseball Reference altho my memory says it was more recent than that.
Once my brain files stuff away in long-term storage I have a hell of a time keeping the chronology straight unless that’s an important factor.
@105 – RC,
“George McQuinn’s father-in-law” ???
Seriously? McQuinn married in 1937, so you’d have to think his father-in-law would at least 120 years old or so.
Incidentally, McQuinn’s Irish-Canadian wife is credited in his SABR Bio with talking McQuinn out of retiring during his awful 1946 season. The Yankees were sure glad she did.
@108
This is what happens when I rush. It was his son-in-law. I realized it after I left my house to run some errands.
Funny. I voted for Cronin but not Alomar in the regular election but I’m voting for Alomar in the tie break because 1) I think Cronin will get in soon anyway and 2) I supported Biggio for soooo long I was taking it personally every time he missed out. Gotta give some love to those fighting the same fight for Alomar.
Roberto Alomar not Clemente he’s already in
Cronin
Seems like the COG has a soft spot for 2B, Whitaker, Grich, Biggio, and now Alomar all are not worthy of the lofty circle. At least IMHO.
I vote for Roberto Alomar.
Roberto Alomar.
Cronin – Roberto had he retired after 2001
My vote goes to Joe Cronin.
Vote: Roberto Alomar
I think that like Biggio, he is near the COG borderline, but Alomar has been on the bubble long enough.
Also, it seems like it has been a while since we added a 2nd baseman.
Actually, we elected Joe Gordon 7 elections, so not that far back.
My vote is for Cronin
My vote is for Cronin
Sigh. Can’t believe I have to choose between the 7th and 8th best players on my ballot. Gotta go with Cronin, I guess.
Remember when we had too few second basemen in the circle? Yeah, been a while.
Man, I feel personally responsible for this runoff election. I was stalking the last vote and was too busy Saturday night to do it.
Is anyone going to make an actual argument that Cronin isn’t the better player? Anybody?
Cronin. For shame y’all (and by that I mean mostly me).
Cronin. He probably spit more than Alomar but had better (or worse?)aim.
Vote for Alomar
Roberto was building a huge lead, but then 7 of the last 8 votes (though comment 48) have come in for Joe, making it close once again.
When there’s a tie in the regular round, it’s probably because we, as a body, think that the two players are really close. So this doesn’t surprise me. As it’s been pointed out above, the other tiebreakers were two votes and one, respectively. I expect more of the same this time ’round.
Joe Cronin. A virtual toss-up, so I’ll take the SS over the 2B.
Vote for Roberto Alomar
I go for Joe. Cronin is in
1 vote for Alomar.
Alomar was great through age 33, then was not.
That had to stink for him.
Here are his counting numbers through age 33:
1341 Runs
2389 Hits
446 .2B
72 ..3B
190 .HR
1018 RBI
446 .SB
.306 BA
What other Second Basemen through age 33?
(Since 1893)
1300+ Runs
2300+ Hits
150+ .HR
400+ .SB
Only Alomar.
______
.300 BA
400 .2B
70 ..3B
1000 RBI
Nap Lajoie
Rogers Hornsby
Charlie Gehringer
2300+ Hits
400 + SB
Only Alomar
___________
1300+ Runs
1000+ RBI
Alomar and Hornsby
___________
.300+ BA
150+ HR
Alomar, Hornsby, Cano
___________
I’ve been voting for Alomar since I found HHS. One more vote for Roberto Alomar.
Birtelcom notes how similar Cronin’s and Alomar’s WAR are. They’re neck-and-neck in WAA too, once we adjust for Alomar’s late career slide. Amazingly, they have identical Rbats (242) as well. Alomar picks up almost six wins in baserunning, but gives them all back through Rfield and the positional adjustment. While I prefer to trust the numbers over reputation, Alomar was regarded as a great defensive second baseman, so it’s possible that the truth lies somewhere between his -38 Rfield and his 10 Gold Gloves. I’ll give him enough of an upward adjustment from there to offset Cronin’s having produced similar value in fewer PAs.
There’s also the issue of Alomar’s replacement level likely being a far better player, as he played in an integrated league with heavy global influence.
Roberto Alomar
I opened this thread with the idea of voting for Alomar. After reading, I’ve changed my mind.
Cronin.
Alomar for me, thanks!
Alomar, but juuuuuuust barely.
Alomar, son of Sandy, brother of Sandy, and maybe even boyfriend of a Sandy at some point.
Been working way too much and not voting here much, but I was an Alomar supporter from way back. I vote for Roberto.
Joe Cronin.
I just don’t like Alomar.
I’ve been avoiding Alomar all along. Alomar.
Alomar.
He’s been on most of my ballots from the very beginning. He was a great player who was simply shot when he got to the Mets. That can happen to players not on steroids. It seemed unusual, I think, because so many players were trying to defeat age by juicing in the 1990s and 2000s, but in looking back at the history of second baseman it’s not that strange to lose it around the age of 34 or 35.
I just read a biography of Joe Cronin by Mark Armour. Cronin was a great player for Washington but wasn’t too special his first few years with Boston. There was a lot of resentment towards him on those teams especially coming from Lefty Grove. Some of the veterans thought he over managed when he was on the field and they weren’t too happy with his fielding behind them. He had a resurgence in 1938 in his age 31 season that lasted for four years. He was also done after the age of 34.
My vote goes to Cronin.
A vote for Joe Cronin.
Alomar – his peak is a little higher. Either one is a fine COG inductee.
Well, here are the four measures I usually compare the ballot candidates on:
WAR – Alomar, 66.8, Cronin, 66.4. Slight advantage Alomar.
WAA+ – Alomar, 36.8, Cronin, 37.3. Slight advantage Cronin.
JAWS – Alomar, 54.8, Cronin, 55.1. No real advantage, but slight Cronin.
WAR*WAR/162G – Alomar, 303.86, Cronin 336.28. Advantage Cronin.
Intangibles – I’m inclined to give Cronin some credit for managing while playing. Both fell off a relative cliff, value-wise, at age 34 (although Cronin had a low WAR total in very few games, but it was in a WWII-depleted league as well). In my mind, both are greats and are clearly enough over the line of what I consider CoG worthy, stats-wise, both played middle-infield positions, and although Cronin’s dWAR is quite high relative to Alomar’s (and I have a little less trust in dWAR than oWAR), he was no slouch with the bat. I would be lying if I said I didn’t hope, as a stats-nerd, to see Alomar stick around long enough to be the biggest CoG vote-getter ever, but that’s a silly reason and I give the edge to Cronin enough anyway before that’s a real consideration.
Joe Cronin.
@77/bells,
“WAR – Alomar, 66.8, Cronin, 66.4. Slight advantage Alomar.” – No, I don’t see any advantage at all.
We’ve had this discussion before: this is a perfect example of “the illusion of false precision”. WAR is simply not accurate down to the tenths of points. For all practical purposes, Cronin and Alomar are tied in career WAR; a difference of less than .1 WAR/season doesn’t indicate anything at all, it’s much smaller than the margin for error.
Any difference of less than 5 career WAR between two players, I don’t think is significant. The same comments above apply to WAA+ and JAWS, there’s too little difference to be significant.
Yeah, I agree. It’s pretty much all a wash. I put ‘no difference’ and then erased it in my initial post. Especially with the difference in the way the components of WAR were calculated over the years (aside from any distrust of defensive metrics, there’s the obvious small differences like how it seems like rDP was either not calculated or calculated very erratically for earlier years), it really comes down to what you like better about which player. Both are worthy in my opinion, and Cronin slightly more so.
My comment at #88 (in response to #77) did not appear on the right sidebar “Recent Comments”. Anyone else still have this problem??
Yes I still have that problem.
Yep, me too, and I’m still receiving new posts only very erratically; most of them are not getting through.
Another vote for Cronin.
Extending the deadline for the runoff till Friday, in light of the time the site was down.
Birtelcom – The bolded text in the post still has the Wednesday deadline.
Thanks – fixed!
Cronin gets the nod
Cronin – their stats are close but I think John Hirschbeck would agree the nod goes to Cronin
Well, this is obviously (and as always) unofficial. But I tried to catch everything. I’m hoping I didn’t miss any votes. Assuming the Steve @84 is not the same as the Steve @41, this is the vote total through Steve @84:
Roberto Alomar – 33
Joe Cronin – 29
Yep, it’s two different Steves.
Alomar and extra words.
My vote goes to Robbie Alomar
Robbie Alomar – saw him play a lot in Toronto, once or twice in Cleveland — don’t know nuthin bout the Mets years, but he was a great talent — not to say Joe Cronin wasn’t
Alomar is going to win this round and he probably deserves to be in the COG. He is a better 2B than the likes of Grich and Whitaker. However, I think it is wrong to disparage the Mets fans (me included) who despise Alomar. He was literally an all star every season from 1990-2001. He was only 34 when he started with the Mets in the middle of the steroid era when there were many great players in their late 30s and early 40s. And the cliff he fell off from one of the best players in the game from 99-01 to a below average player is almost unprecedented for his age and lack of an injury. Finally, even though the 2002 and 2003 Mets weren’t good teams, there was certainly a lot of hope in at least 02 because they were in the race in 2001 until the last few days of the season. I just needed to get that off my chest. If you are not a Mets fan, I don’t think its fair to scrutinize our disdain, that is all.
To your point, here are the 19 players with between 18 and 22 WAR aged 31-33, and how they fared aged 34-35.
Generated 2/13/2015.
It’s actually not at all unprecedented for a middle infielder to drop off in terms of hitting, right around age 34. A few examples, looking at total Rbat ages 31-33, then 34-36
Joe Morgan: 145, 20 (-125 runs)
Craig Biggio: 102, 12 (-90 runs)
Derek Jeter: 97, 26 (-71 runs)
Roberto Alomar: 98, -22 (-120 runs)
Alomar’s dropoff was about the same as Morgans and somewhat more than Biggio and Jeter’s. But the point is that they all had substantial dropoff at age 34.
A couple of others, using slightly different ages:
Barry Larkin (ages 32-34, 35-37): 87, 17 (-70 runs)
Ryne Sandberg:(ages 30-32, 33-34+36): 107, 1 (-106 runs)
But at least the others were positive. Alomar was a below average player which is my point. No one has ever gone from being a super star to below average like he did.
Jeff B,
check out Dick Allen’s 1975 return to Phila at age 33. The prior three years his OPS+ was about 164. He totally defecated the bed – chronic shoulder trouble, whatever. But, 33-34 years of age, that’s when it can happen. Ron Santo, Bobby Bonds Vada Pinson……..
Hey, to Alomar’s credit, at least he wasn’t on steroids with that kind of performance
Roberto Alomar for the win.
This is a test to see if I can retrieve Recent Comments.