21 thoughts on “Quiz – Journeymen and a HOFer (stumped)”

1. Paul E March 28, 2015 at 9:03 am

   Doug,
   Not for anything, and totally going tangential here, but how about Jim Clancy’s 40 games started in 1982 has not been surpassed since? Charlie Hough matched him in 1987, but no one has made more starts in a season.

   Does this have anything to do with victories in one season and defeats in another?

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   1. Doug Post authorMarch 28, 2015 at 11:08 am

      Nothing to do with wins or losses.

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2. Joseph March 28, 2015 at 10:36 am

   This is a tough one. I’ve spent at least an hour looking at the stats and running searches on the play index and I don’t even have a guess.

   Are you being sneaky here? Is it a pitching accomplishment or a hitting accomplishment?

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   1. Doug Post authorMarch 28, 2015 at 11:09 am

      It is a pitching feat.

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3. Joseph March 28, 2015 at 3:24 pm

   After spending even more time on this, when I should have been painting the bathroom, I’m thinking it has something to do with a minimum number of innings pitched in a career, but having a low number of something like wild pitches or balks or something.

   Back to painting.

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   1. Doug Post authorMarch 28, 2015 at 10:12 pm

      Yes, there is a minimum number of career IP to qualify.

      But, nothing to do with wild pitches or balks.

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      1. Richard Chester March 29, 2015 at 10:30 am

         I would presume that 2000 IP is the minimum.

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         1. Doug March 29, 2015 at 1:49 pm

            That is correct.

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4. Joseph March 29, 2015 at 11:21 pm

   There are 125 players pre 1946 who had IP > 2000 and 77 accomplished this mystery feat.

   There are over 200 players after 1946 with IP > 2000 and only eight have accomplished this.

   I’m thinking that this has something to do with the changes in the way pitchers are used.

   I keep looking at this and can’t come up with anything.

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   1. Doug Post authorMarch 30, 2015 at 11:08 am

      Correct deduction.

      It is definitely related to changes in how pitchers are used.

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5. Jim March 30, 2015 at 10:06 am

   It’s not the answer, but Bartolo Colon is the only pitcher with 2000 IP who has allowed 100% of his inherited runners to score. The most recent of his six career relief appearances is the only time he’s entered a game in the middle of an inning, and he allowed the one runner to score. If he had kept the runner from scoring and the rest of the game had gone the same way it did, Mariano Rivera would have one more save and one less win.

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6. PaulE March 30, 2015 at 6:02 pm

   I guess the next question is, “Does Andy Pettitte get to Cooperstown with 4 (four) career shutouts”?

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   1. Doug March 30, 2015 at 6:54 pm

      And, one CG (in his career finale) in his last 170 starts (almost as many starts as Max Scherzer had before his first CG).

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      1. no statistician but March 31, 2015 at 8:16 am

         One of the consequences of this shift in strategy is the lengthening of games. In fact, it would be interesting to see some stats on the average delay caused by a pitching change, as opposed to the time lost due to the antics of batters stepping out of the box. The latter is under fire now, but I’d guess the former is far more destructive to the flow of the game and hence contributes far more to the loss of interest in baseball to some of the public.

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7. Artie Z. March 31, 2015 at 11:22 am

   It is interesting to compare Bob Gibson with Tim Hudson. Both had 56 games of 7+ IP with 0 runs allowed. As Doug mentions, all of Gibby’s games were shutouts. Obviously the Cardinals went 56-0.

   Hudson, however, only had 13 shutouts among his 56 games, so he was replaced 43 times. In 13 of those 43 non-shutout games Hudson’s team allowed runs after he left, and they went 12-1 (so overall, 55-1 in Hudson’s 56 games). In that one loss Wickman gave up 3 runs in the 9th. Now, maybe that’s a game where Hudson should have been left in as the Braves were only up 2-0 heading into the 8th (and it was in an AL park, against the Twins, so there was a DH – maybe Hudson was hurt as Soriano replaced him mid-inning with no one on base and the ever dangerous Punto-Tyner combo coming up to bat). He had only thrown 83 pitches, giving up 2 hits, 1 walk, and 2 strikeouts, so it doesn’t seem like he was stressing. There are other games in which Hudson was pulled in the 7th or 8th when the final score ended up 13-0, or 10-0, or 8-0, games that really weren’t in doubt.

   My question is: Would the Cardinals (and Gibson) have been better off if they pulled Gibby in games where it really didn’t matter? The Cards beat the Mets 10-0 on 8/18/1962, and Gibson walked 8 batters that day (3 in the last 2 innings when the Cards had a 9-0 lead) though he did only give up 3 hits. I suppose I understand why he was left in on 8/14/1971 when the Cards ended up winning 11-0 – he pitched a no-hitter. But there are other games that Gibby pitched in which he probably could have been pulled because the Cards had a good lead but ultimately he was left in. Now those 1-0 and 2-0 games – yeah, I leave in Bob Gibson. But 8-0 in the 7th, and Gibby is starting to get hit (4/17/65)? Why not give him a break?

   It’s difficult to say that Gibson’s career was “shortened” when he pitched almost 3900 innings (46th all-time, 36th since 1893), and it’s also difficult to say that he could have been much better than he actually was (81.9 pitching WAR – 25th all-time, but 47 WAA are tied for 18th all-time), but it’s a little scary to think he might have been a little more effective, albeit in slightly fewer innings, if he had a little bit of a break now and then.

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   1. Doug Post authorApril 2, 2015 at 1:26 am

      Nice comp Artie Z.

      Intuitively, I think everyone would have to agree there’s not a lot of point to keeping your ace on the hill with (for example) an 8-run lead in the 8th inning (unless he’s on the verge of doing something historic).

      My first reaction was surprise that the Braves lost only once after removing Hudson in that situation. But, thinking about it some more, most teams with any kind of lead after 7 innings do seem to win at a clip well above 90%, so 55-1 when shutting out your opponent after 7+ probably isn’t that unusual. As a check, I looked at Pedro who had a similar profile to Hudson: 17 shutouts and 40 other 7 IP+ scoreless starts. In those 40 games a very similar result: 38-2 with both losses in extras, incl. one after the Mets coughed up a 4-0 9th inning lead.

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      1. Richard Chester April 2, 2015 at 2:52 pm

         Per the gregstoll win expectancy calculator after 7 innings:

         Visitors ahead by 1 run, win expectancy = .753.
         Home team ahead by 1 run, win expectancy = .774.
         Visitors ahead by 2 runs,win expectancy = .872.
         Home team ahead by 2 runs, win expectancy = .880.

         3 runs or more ahead either team has a .942+ chance of winning.

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         1. Doug Post authorApril 2, 2015 at 3:08 pm

            The historical numbers in the P-I (combined home/away) for all leads are:
            2014: .917
            2013: .905
            2012: .919
            2011: .901
            2010: .917
            2009: .906
            2008: .905
            2007: .897
            2006: .904
            2005: .904

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   2. BryanM April 5, 2015 at 7:21 pm

      Bob Gibson was by reputation a fierce competitor who was no respecter of persons. It is possible that it took a certain amount of courage to walk out to the mound when Gibson was pitching a shutout and ask for the ball….

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      1. Steven April 6, 2015 at 2:18 am

         Maybe someone more computer-savvy than I can verify the exact dates, but I think Gibson had a streak of two years without being taken out of a game while pitching, before the opposition made three outs (1967-69?).

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8. BryanM April 6, 2015 at 7:57 am

   Adam Wainwright pitched 6 scoreless innings on opening day, then was taken out; didn’t even make the seven inning cutoff above. Taking out your presumed ace in front of an opening day crowd without an obvious reason would have been bad baseball business in the old days, when the big crowd would have been presumed to pay good money in part to see him pitch. We should remember that fan expectations constrain decisions even now – pushing against those constraints has always marked the great managers

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