This post is for voting and discussion in the 98th round of balloting for the Circle of Greats (COG). This round adds to the list of candidates eligible to receive your votes those players born in 1893. Rules and lists are after the jump.
The new group of 1893-born players, in order to join the eligible list, must, as usual, have played at least 10 seasons in the major leagues or generated at least 20 Wins Above Replacement (“WAR”, as calculated by baseball-reference.com, and for this purpose meaning 20 total WAR for everyday players and 20 pitching WAR for pitchers). This new group of 1893-born candidates joins the eligible holdovers from previous rounds to comprise the full list of players eligible to appear on your ballots.
Each submitted ballot, if it is to be counted, must include three and only three eligible players. As always, the one player who appears on the most ballots cast in the round is inducted into the Circle of Greats. Players who fail to win induction but appear on half or more of the ballots that are cast win four added future rounds of ballot eligibility. Players who appear on 25% or more of the ballots cast, but less than 50%, earn two added future rounds of ballot eligibility. Any other player in the top 9 (including ties) in ballot appearances, or who appears on at least 10% of the ballots, wins one additional round of ballot eligibility.
All voting for this round closes at 11:59 PM EDT Sunday, June 28th, while changes to previously cast ballots are allowed until 11:59 PM EDT Friday, June 26th.
If you’d like to follow the vote tally, and/or check to make sure I’ve recorded your vote correctly, you can see my ballot-counting spreadsheet for this round here: COG 1893 Vote Tally. I’ll be updating the spreadsheet periodically with the latest votes. Initially, there is a row in the spreadsheet for every voter who has cast a ballot in any of the past rounds, but new voters are entirely welcome — new voters will be added to the spreadsheet as their ballots are submitted. Also initially, there is a column for each of the holdover candidates; additional player columns from the new born-in-1893 group will be added to the spreadsheet as votes are cast for them.
Choose your three players from the lists below of eligible players. The fourteen current holdovers are listed in order of the number of future rounds (including this one) through which they are assured eligibility, and alphabetically when the future eligibility number is the same. The 1893 birth-year players are listed below in order of the number of seasons each played in the majors, and alphabetically among players with the same number of seasons played.
Holdovers:
Harmon Killebrew (eligibility guaranteed for 10 rounds)
Roy Campanella (eligibility guaranteed for 3 rounds)
Kevin Brown (eligibility guaranteed for 2 rounds)
Goose Goslin (eligibility guaranteed for 2 rounds)
Hoyt Wilhelm (eligibility guaranteed for 2 rounds)
Richie Ashburn (eligibility guaranteed for this round only)
Dennis Eckersley (eligibility guaranteed for this round only)
Dwight Evans (eligibility guaranteed for this round only)
Gabby Hartnett (eligibility guaranteed for this round only)
Ted Lyons (eligibility guaranteed for this round only)
Graig Nettles (eligibility guaranteed for this round only)
Rick Reuschel (eligibility guaranteed for this round only)
Luis Tiant (eligibility guaranteed for this round only)
Dave Winfield (eligibility guaranteed for this round only)
Everyday Players (born in 1893, ten or more seasons played in the major leagues or at least 20 WAR):
Charlie Jamieson
Edd Roush
George Burns
Wally Pipp
George Sisler
Frank O’Rourke
Milt Stock
Ira Flagstead
Billy Southworth
Irish Meusel
Joe Schultz
Mike McNally
Earl Sheely
Pitchers (born in 1893, ten or more seasons played in the major leagues or at least 20 WAR):
Burleigh Grimes
Jesse Haines
Guy Morton
Dutch Ruether
Allen Russell
Allan Sothoron
Ray Kremer
This round’s tidbits. Answers in red.
1. Jesse Haines was the first NL starting pitcher to lead his league in appearances in a post-1901 rookie season. Who was the first relief pitcher to do this? Hoyt Wilhelm
2. Burleigh Grimes’ 25 wins at age 34 in 1928 make him the oldest pitcher with that many wins in a live ball era season. Who is the only older NL pitcher with such a season before 1920? Joe McGinnity
3. Charlie Jamieson batted over .300 in 1000+ PA after age 25, making him the only such player among 125 retired players since 1901 who batted under .240 in 1000+ PA thru age 25. Which player in that group had the most PA after age 25? Ozzie Smith
4. Edd Roush’s 135 OPS+ as a Red is tops among players with 1000 games in centerfield for Cincinnati. Who is the only other player with 500 games as a Reds centerfielder aged 30+? Ken Griffey Jr.
5. Billy Southworth and Edd Roush are the last players to exceed 50 career home runs with less than twice as many career doubles as triples. Since then, which such player has the most career home runs? Willie Wilson
6. George Burns’ 298 total bases in his 1926 MVP season are the fewest in a season with 200 hits, including 70 extra-base hits. Burns played over 1500 games at first base including over 200 for four franchises. Who is the only player since to do the same? Fred McGriff
7. George Sisler’s 399 total bases in 1920 are the most in a season with BA higher than total bases. Which player has the highest ratio of total bases to batting average in a qualified season? Sammy Sosa in 1999
8. Wally Pipp, famous for losing his job to Lou Gehrig, was the first Yankee first baseman with a 4.5 WAR season. Between Gehrig and Don Mattingly, who were the only Yankee first basemen to match Pipp’s feat? Nick Etten, Bill Skowron
9. Milt Stock recorded four hits in four consecutive games in 1925, the only searchable player with that accomplishment. Those hits were among more than 200 by Stock that season, making him the only player not banned from baseball whose last career hit came in a 200 hit season. Which teammate of Stock’s also recorded 200 hits in his second-to-last season? Austin McHenry
10. Frank O’Rourke had seasons with 100 games played at three different positions, each for a different franchise. His 69 OPS+ was, for more than 60 years, the lowest career mark among players with 200 games at 2B, 3B and SS. Which such player active in 2014 has a lower career OPS+? John McDonald
11. Ira Flagstead’s 196 doubles for the Red Sox are the most by a Boston player in fewer than 3000 AB. Who tops that list among active players? Jacoby Ellsbury
12. Dutch Ruether is one of 24 pitchers since 1901 to finish his career with 5 consecutive qualifying (modern definition) seasons. Of that group, who is the other pitcher like Reuther with as many shutouts in his final season as in the four preceding campaigns? Charlie Hough
13. Allen Russell is one of twelve pitchers on a world championship team who allowed a home run in relief in the only World Series game of their careers. Which pitcher did this most recently? Ryan Dempster
14. Allan Sothoron’s 178.1 IP in 1921 are the most in the live ball era in a season with zero home runs allowed, a feat more unusual for having been accomplished while playing for three different teams. Which expansion era pitcher has the most IP in a season not allowing a home run? Dale Murray
15. Guy Morton’s .071 W-L% (1-13 record) is the lowest in a rookie season (min. 50 IP) among 87 single-franchise pitchers with 1000 IP since 1901. Which HOF pitcher has the lowest qualified W-L% in a rookie season? Burleigh Grimes
16. Irish Meusel is the only Giant with a World Series “cycle” (single, double, triple and HR in same World Series), accomplishing that feat in both 1921 and 1923. Since 1901, who is the other player like Meusel with 250 games in left field for both the Phillies and Giants? Gary Matthews Sr.
17. Joe Schultz is the only player since 1901 to play for four franchises (excl. FL teams) by his age 22 season, and is the only pre-expansion player to play for 7 franchises, all in the NL. Who is the only pre-expansion player to play for 7 franchises, all in the AL? Eddie Robinson
18. Ray Kremer pitched almost 2000 IP for the Pirates, the most among pitchers starting their careers at age 31 or older. Who is the only other single franchise pitcher since 1901 to debut after age 30 and compile over 1000 IP? George Bell
19. Mike McNally is the only player with 200 games for the Yankees and Red Sox in a career of fewer than 500 games. Which teammate of McNally’s almost accomplished the same feat? Roxy Walters
20. Earl Sheely compiled 20 WAR over his first 6 seasons, and for his 9 season career. Who is the other player since 1901 who, like Sheely, posted five consecutive 3 WAR seasons, all under 4 WAR? George Grantham
Additional tidbit: In 1929 Sisler’s 205 hits are the most for a player in his next-to-last season.
Answer to 17, Joe Schultz: I found Eddie Robinson. The BR PI shows him to be on 5 AL teams through 1955. But his career lasted through 1957 and he played on the Tigers and O’s in 1957. I found Robinson’s name by another method.
Roush question: young Ken Griffey
His father, who was the Reds’ regular centerfielder in 1981, finished with just over 200 games in CF for his whole career.
#2 (Grimes question) — if I understand the question, I think it is Joe McGinnity in 1906.
Meusel question: old Gary Matthews (SF 1972-76, PHI 1981-83)
Wally Pipp question: Nick Etten.
That’s one. There’s another.
The Moose, Bill Skowron.
Allan Sothoron question: Dale Murray, 1975 111.1 innings
Correct. Murray’s streak was part of a homerless run of 142 games and 247.1 IP. Only Greg Minton has a longer streak since 1961.
Brad Ziegler has the longest recent streak with 163 games and 145.2 IP (164 and 146 IP incl. post-season) from 7/3/2010 to 9/24/2012. Wade Davis has the longest current streak at 112 IP, or 126.1 IP including the post-season. He last allowed a home run on 8/24/2013.
#10, the Frank O’Rourke question: John McDonald, with a 59 career OPS+.
John McDonald is one of 19 players with 15+ seasons in the ML and who never got as many as 100 hits in any one season.
6. George Burns question. Fred McGriff. San Diego, Toronto, Tampa Bay and Atlanta. He also played 180+ games at first base for the Cubs.
7. George Sister – I believe it’s Mark McGwire in 1999, with a 1.3058:1 ratio (363 TB, 278 AVG). That being said, I only checked four guys – McGwire, Adam Dunn, Rob Deer, and Dave Kingman. Deer has no such seasons, but the others all have seasons with a high number or two.
Not McGwire.
I forgot about Ryan Howard. Is it his 2008? 331 TB, 251 AVG – 1.3187 ratio. That’s my best guess. It’s REALLY HARD to think of guys with high TB numbers who also had bad AVGs!
OK, while I was waiting for that last comment to post, I thought of Slammin’ Sammy. How about 1999, the second of his three 60 HR years:
1.3785 (397 TB, 288 AVG) – that’s absurd, by the way.
It is Sosa.
Shot in the dark on #1 (Jesse Haines)
Firpo Marberry in 1925?
Keep shooting, Hartvig. 🙂
9. Milt Stock question: It took a lot of searching before I found Austin McHenry. It’s always surprising to learn of a good player whose name I don’t recognize.
The Cardinals lost two players tragically in 1922 with both McHenry and Pickles Dillhoefer dying after their age 27 seasons.
Number 20, Earl Sheely question: George Grantham from 1927-1931.
Question #19, Mike McNally: Roxy Walters. He had 268 G with the Red Sox and 193 with the Yankees. They were teammates on the 1919-1920 Red Sox.
Another shot in the dark, this time on #3 (Charlie Jamieson)
Ozzie Smith?
Ozzie is our man.
Guess for #11 Flagstead – Jacoby Ellsbury, 155 doubles in 2912 ABs as a Red Sox player? If you mean career ABs then he is not eligible but those are Tacoby Bellsbury’s BOS stats.
Ellsbury is the answer.
Geez, I got #1 with a wild guess and then spent a bunch of time double checking it. Should have just went with my gut and saved my time. The 1952 NY Giants had a rookie knuckleballing relief pitcher who pitched 72 games to lead the league. You might have heard of him, Hoyt Wilhelm.
Correction, 71 games. Which was the 20th century record at that point for games pitched, surpassed only be a few of the more rubber armed 19th century guys (Clarkson, Spalding, Galvin, Radbourne to name a few)
Ira Flagstead question–Is it Jacoby Ellsbury? He ended up with just less than 3,000 AB with the Red Sox and 155 doubles.
#13 is Ryan Dempster for the 2013 BoSox. Matt Holliday hit the HR in the top of the 9th to spoil the Red Sox shutout in Game 1.
#15 I have two answers: If Qualified rookie season means the pitcher didn’t pitch more than 50 innings previously, then I think the Answer is Gaylord Perry (1963, 1-6, .143 winning percentage). However, I suspect that Perry was not considered a rookie in 1963, because the definition of a rookie is multipart and, whereas, he didn’t exceed the innings limit in 1962 (he pitched 43 innings), I suspect he did use up his rookieness in the other way (he was on the roster more than 45 days in 1962). Therefore, I am pretty sure, despite his innings being under 50, he was not a rookie in 1963.
If he is not the correct answer, then I will go with new inductee, John Smoltz (2-7 (.222) in 1988)
I want to change my alternate answer if Gaylord Perry is not correct to Burleigh Grimes (3-16 (.158) in 1917)
Grimes is correct.
“Qualified” in the question was referring to qualifying for the W-L% title. Thus, the answer must be a HOFer who qualified for the W-L% title as a rookie.
Question #18, Ray Kremer: George Bell, no not the one we all know, the one who pitched for Brooklyn from 1907-1911.
#18 is a guy named George Bell. Not the Blue Jays outfielder, but a guy who pitched in the 19 oughts with the Dodgers and led the league in losses with 27 in 1910
Ironically, that 1910 season was Bell’s best ERA-wise with a 115 ERA+ compared to 94 for his career. That season and Bell’s 8-16 rookie year make him the only pitcher since 1901 with two 250 IP seasons with 100 ERA+ and W-L% of .333 or worse.
Those Dodger teams (or more correctly Superba teams) prior to Uncle Robbie coming to town weren’t quite brutal (they only finished last in 1905, HOFer Ned Hanlon’s last year as manager), but they weren’t very good either. And it would appear their offense much of the reason they weren’t very good. The infamous Bill Bergen was their regular catcher from 1904 to 1911 and the highest OPS+ he put up was 33 (in 1905) and for the last 3 years he was there his OPS+ was 1, 6 and -3.
#5, if I understand it, I am looking for a player since the retirement of Roush/Southworth who had less than 50 HRs, and less than twice the doubles as triples.
If so, I think the answer is one of my favorite players of all time, Willie Wilson, with 281 doubles, 147 triples and 41 HRs (many of which were glorified triples, i.e. inside the park HRs)
Exactly right. Wilson is our man.
And, you’re also bang on about his IPHR. They accounted for 12 of his first 15 HR, but none of the last 26. Wilson was also adept at leading off a game with a home run, doing that on 11 occasions which, at about a 1 in 4 ratio, is about right for a lead-off hitter (Wilson batted leadoff in about 2/3 of his games, but had 35 of his 41 homers from that lineup spot).
“They accounted for 12 of his first 15 HR, but none of the last 26.”
Whitey Herzog had to break out the Tums after that little reminder….
Just to finish up I came up with Charlie Hough as the answer to the Dutch Ruether question, #12.
Hough is the answer, with a little asterisk in that his final season was the strike-shortened 1994 campaign.
There are a lot of quality players in the 1893 birth year, but the only one I feel strongly about for the COG is Sisler. His 1917-1922 seasons are pretty special, with 43.0 WAR (42.9 if his pitching WAR is added in) across those 6 seasons.
I don’t think anyone else on the ballot really has that high of a peak (even disregarding the consecutive years nature of Sisler’s peak) – I have Goslin and Nettles in the high 30s. Sisler had 29.6 WAA during those 6 years. His overall numbers don’t look very good, but that’s due to the basically replacement level that he played at after his injury (from 1924-1930 he totaled 6.6 WAR – or 7.1 counting his pitching – in 4440 PAs).
He is the one position player I think warrants the “Koufax-type” consideration for short brilliant peak, and I think if he had just left baseball after his age 29 season people would treat him similarly to Koufax. And Koufax “only” had 46.6 pitching WAR (44.2 including batting), and Sisler did have one more 5.2 WAR seasons (1916, counting hitting and pitching). But Sisler hung around and “hurt” his overall numbers and so he looks a little more pedestrian than he might have had he retired after injury.
Sisler, Hartnett, and Nettles
He has the same number of seasons over 5WAA as nettles, just as one example there are lots others on this ballot. I think he compares favorably with Killebrew coincidentally and that’s about it. I also personally use an increasingly strong negative “strength of competition” push as we go back in time. This was an earlier game and batting .420 needs to be kept firmly in context. Sisler was no Ted Williams with the bat even at his peak. Honestly I think he’s most like Norm Cash who played in an integrated league at the height of baseball and got no love from anybody HOF or COG.
Soundly no from me against Sisler. I would put pretty much every holdover we have above him.
Norm Cash did get a lot of love from my father’s generation of Detroit baseball fans, possibly because he bought 3/4 of them beers.
Also, can we be clear what we’re calling a “Koufax type”? To me the phrase refers to a a 4-year or 7-year period of historic dominance. Sisler over 4 or 7 years did not put up stats that rank in the top 10 of anybody ever. He has more peak than the rest of the current holdovers maybe but that’s a far cry from a Ruth/Gehrig/Williams/Hornsby/etc type 4/7 year peak. Koufax on the other hand over 4/7 years was right up there with more consistent all time guys like Clemens/Unit/etc. I’ve also discussed how I think Koufax, Ford, and Drysdale are over-WAR penalized but in terms of raw WAR…
Top 4 consecutive year pitching WAR 1920+:
Randy Jonson – 38.2
Martinez – 37.6
KOUFAX – 36.5
Grove – 36.3
Gibson – 35.4
Wood – 35.4
Newhouser – 34.6
Maddux – 33.2
Clemens – 33.0
Feller – 32.4
Seaver – 32.1
Ruth – 20.2 (AHEM)
Those aren’t like… “Sisler has a netter peak than Eddie Murray!” type names there and Koufax isn’t far from the top (apologies if I missed any pitcher higher than Seaver but I don’t think I did?)
In defense of Sisler, he was in the top 5 of WAR for position players (both leagues) for 6 years in a row and the #1 guy twice. And neither of those were his best (9.8 WAR) season.
That ain’t chopped liver when you figure the guys he was competing against were Ruth, Cobb, Eddie Collins, Tris Speaker, Rogers Hornsby, Joe Jackson plus Harry Heilmann and Frankie Frisch. Every one of those guys except for Jackson (who has the same short peak problem Frisch has plus a little issue with some gambling) either have been or will be slam dunks for the COG.
That said, he had an excellent peak, not a great one. He had 2 great years and 5 more that were very good to excellent. And as good as his best year was Jackie Robinson matched it twice and Al Rosen and Rico Petrocelli topped it.
I’m going to reserve judgement and hold off on voting for the moment but unless someone can make a convincing case for him that I’m not seeing at this moment, he won’t be getting my vote either.
I generally agree with Hartvig re: Sisler. His peak from 1916-1922 is behind Hornsby and Ruth (fewer PAs) but equal to Cobb and Speaker. No one else was even close. So basically Sisler was the 3rd, 4th or 5th best player in baseball for a 7 year period. That at least deserves consideration.
He also had one of the highest consecutive year peaks for a first baseman. Behind Gehrig, Pujols, and Foxx, equal to Mize and Bagwell.
He also threw in 2.5 pitching WAR.
Again, probably not COG-level but someone who at least deserves a look.
Beyond that, I’m not sure what value there is in looking at a 4 year peak for Koufax. If that’s all that was necessary, Wilbur Wood would also be in the COG.
7 year peak eh? 47.2 WAR is impressive but How does it rank compared to all time greats? Well, you don’t have to mention any of the top 10 WAR guys. In fact, I looked for the highest career war of ANYBODY who failed to reach 47.2 WAR in a 7 year consecutive periodn. Answer? Cap Anson (#27 in total WAR) who’s 7-year peak is 43.7 WAR. Guys from that point down on the total career position player WAR table sometimes reach 7year 47.2 WAR and sometimes don’t (for example Boggs and Brett did but Chipper and Beltre didn’t). I couldn’t find a player with LOWER than Sisler’s total war that reached that peak but that’s very nit picky because although dozens of players were that good none were of so little value outside that period.
Sisler was certainly “on pace” for a COG career at age 29 but I don’t view him as clearly better given the context (pre-integration, favorable rules, extreme parks etc). I think he’s got a good peak for a COG candidate but not to the point where I’d vote him in.
George Sisler, 1917 – 1922:
.377 / .420 / .541 / .962 / 162
104 Runs
207 Hits
35 2B
14 3B
9 HR
84 RBI
40 SB
19 SO
7.2 WAR (good fielding 1B)
_______
After his .420 season he got a severe case of sinusitis and missed the whole next year.
Never got back to the same level, but some nice seasons outside of that peak, by slash stats.
But the offensive era tempers some of that.
And WAR is not impressed.
In 1927 Sisler had 201 hits, batted .327, led the league in SB, struck out only 15 times, and was seen as league average with 1 Rbat. Add in his now below average D (according to the stat), and he gets a -0.5 WAA.
_______
I feel the best player on this ballot is Roy Campanella. His negro league and barnstorming performances starting at a ridiculously young age are remarkable. By my estimate he caught more games prior to joining the MLB than he did in it and as thus I feel like the 3 time MVP is showing less than half of his value. To me, he is inarguably one of the greatest catchers in baseball history let alone a borderline COG candidate.
Hartnett’s RFIELD is 12. 12! If you think that has validity, don’t vote for him. He has long been considered the equal of any defensive catcher ever. He caught 15,000 innings. I have his DWAR more in the neighborhood of 100.
Nettles has no weaknesses as a candidate. He seems to be viewed as a compiler which I don’t understand, his peak was exceptional. 3B depth is thin. I guess his knock is that he was above average in too many areas rather than a one trick poney. He has RBAT, RFIELD, and RPOS values and over long enough to have substantial RREP as well (even though that seems to get tossed around here). He has to compete with Sisler which is such a throw of era. Look at this:
.345/.371/.479/.851 in 1925 = 110 OPS+
.253/.325/.395/.720 in 1972 = 111 OPS+
We will never know what kind of hitter Nettles would have been brought back in a time machine to the roaring 20s but we can pretty much be assured he would have been as good defensively, at basically any position, of anybody who played back then. Nettles was a product of his era and not as good as Mike Schmidt but he was a stud none the less.
Campanella, Hartnett, Nettles
I finally get to vote for a player who’s been on the periphery of my ballot for ages!
Also, thanks to all of you who helped support Kevin Brown last round! That was an impressive showing. Perhaps we’ll see someone else make a strong run this time ’round… though if it’s Brown again, I won’t be sad about it.
Kevin Brown
Luis Tiant
Roy Campanella
Goose Goslin
Graig Nettles
Roy Campanella
Luis Tiant, Graig Nettles, Dwight Evans
Good point about Sisler from Artie Z- that is an amazing and sustained peak before the injury; although it illustrates the point that a ‘Koufax type’ career only works for reputation if the player retires after the injury. 7 average-pretty good years afterward the 7 years of greatness really hurt his stats based case, although Sisler is a BBWAA Hall of Famer, just like Koufax.
The hit against Sisler’s WAA is pretty brutal; although I can also see that his walk rate and OBP are pretty low throughout his career, especially for his era.
Sisler had a half a rookie year, a very good 2nd year, and then raked for 6 years. Illness ended his greatness.
.361 / .404 / .510 / .914 / 155+ … for those first 8 years.
Are they a product of his era, or was he “great” ?
.
.
Players who slashed all the following thresholds over their first 8 years:
.350 / .400 / .500 / 150+
.
.353 / .488 / .642 / 195 … Ted Williams
.366 / .414 / .513 / 180 … Ty Cobb
.365 / .434 / .527 / 177 … Joe Jackson
.424 / .433 / .508 / 162 … Terry Forster
.361 / .404 / .510 / 155 … George Sisler
.363 / .405 / .596 / 151 … Al Simmons
Geez, I hadn’t thought about old “Tub of Goo” in a long time. I suppose they never tried to convert him because he had no natural position on the field and they probably figured he wouldn’t hit well enough to be a 1st baseman/DH type.
And while the slash line is amazing the final #- OPS+- also puts it into context.
Sisler managed to do it from age 22 to age 29- which pretty closely coincides with what is a normal players career peak.
34 guys have managed to do that over their entire careers.
Among current players Joey Votto has done it in a career that is 2 years longer than Sisler’s peak.
Miguel Cabrera and Albert Pujols have done it in careers that are already twice as long as Sisler’s peak.
Maybe someday Joey Votto will have had a career worthy of his being included in the COG.
But I wouldn’t bet on it.
This might have been the final nail in the coffin for me.
I used to think of Sisler and Home Run Baker as having somewhat similar cases.
But looking at them side by side I no longer do.
I think that the case for Baker is not only much stronger but I would also argue that the story behind it is both more compelling and worthy of taking into consideration when voting.
I think I have made up my mind.
Career OPS+ for position players currently on the ballot:
PLAYER OPS+ PA
Harmon Killebrew 143 9833
Dave Winfield 130 12358
Goose Goslin 128 9829
Dwight Evans 127 10569
Gabby Hartnett 126 7297
Edd Rousch 126 8148
George Sisler 125 9012
Roy Campanella 123 4815
Irish Muesel 118 5309
George Burns 113 7244
Richie Ashburn 111 9736
Billy Southworth 111 4925
Graig Nettles 110 10228
Wally Pipp 104 7838
Earl Sheely 104 5268
Ira Flagstead 103 4794
Charlie Jamieson 101 7511
Milt Stock 97 6956
Joseph Schultz 93 2142
Frank O’Rourke 69 4608
Mike McNally 54 1245
Career OPS+ of at least 143 over more plate appearances than Harmon Killebrew:
PLAYER OPS+ PA STATUS
Eddie Mathews 143 10100 COG Member
Alex Rodriguez 143 11630 Not yet eligible – Born 1975
Sam Crawford 146 10036 Not yet eligible – Born 1880
Mike Schmidt 147 10062 COG Member
Jim Thome 147 10313 COG Member
Frank Robinson 154 11742 COG Member
Mel Ott 155 11348 COG Member
Hank Aaron 155 13941 COG Member
Frank Thomas 156 10075 COG Member
Willie Mays 156 12496 COG Member
Tris Speaker 157 11992 Not yet eligible – Born 1888
Stan Musial 159 12717 COG Member
Ty Cobb 168 13084 Not yet eligible – Born 1886
Mickey Mantle 172 9907 COG Member
Barry Bonds 182 12606 COG Member
Babe Ruth 206 10622 COG Member
By season’s end Albert Pujols should join this last (currently 9533 PA, 162 career OPS+).
Sure is harder to have a high batting average nowadays when nobody shortens up with two strikes anymore. All or nothing. Amazing what Paul Goldschmidt is doing right now.
.357 BA with 59 SO in 291 PA
That is a strikeout every 5.1 PA.
________________
Minimum 500 PA, highest batting averages, with PA less than 6 times strikeouts:
.351 … Manny
.350 … Larry Walker
.340 … Matt Holliday
.338 … Jimmie Foxx
.337 … Mo Vaughn
.336 … Carlos Gonzalez
.335 … Bobby Abreu
.333 … Manny
.332 … Manny
.331 … Lance Berkman
.331 … Michael Cuddyer
.330 … Tim Salmon
___________________
Before 1987:
.338 … Foxx
.325 … Ron LeFlore
.320 … Jim Rice
.318 … Dick Allen
.318 … Cito Gaston
.317 … Dick Allen
.317 … Mickey Mantle
.317 … Tony Perez
.316 … Ron LeFlore
.315 … Willie Stargell
.315 … Jim Rice
_________________
Before 1946:
.338 … Foxx
.300 … Foxx
.294 … Jake Stahl
.287 … Grover Gilmore
.285 … Dolph Camilli
.283 … Gavvy Cravath
.281 … Chet Ross
.279 … Harry Lumley
.276 … Danny Moeller
.276 … Sam Chapman
.275 … Jimmy Dykes
____________________
Goldschmidt for his career:
.300 BA, with 495 SO in 2244 PA.
That is “Grab Some Pine” every 4.53 PA
______________________________________
First 5 seasons of a career (minimum 1500 PA),
Highest BA with less than 5 Plate Appearances per SO:
.311 … Dick Allen
.305 … Mike Trout
.300 … Paul Goldschmidt
.299 … Carlos Gonzalez
.297 … Travis Hafner
.293 … Tim Salmon
.289 … Don Clendenon
.289 … Chris Johnson
.287 … Danny Tartabull
________________________
Before 1987:
.311 … Dick Allen
.289 … Don Clendenon
.281 … Greg Luzinski
.280 … Willie Stargell
.275 … Bobby Bonds
.275 … Mike Marshall
.273 … Dick Stuart
_____________________
Before 1946:
The only player to qualify under the criteria is
.256 … Vince Dimaggio
Lower the PA to 1000 and you get:
.243 … Chet Ross
Kevin Brown, Goose Goslin, Hoyt Wilhelm
George Sisler, Goose Goslin, Gabby Hartnett.
Campanella, Hartnett, Lyons
Among First Basemen, George Sisler is:
25th … WAR
19th … JAWS
Wedged between Mark McGwire and Keith Hernandez
7th …. WAR7 (best 7 seasons)
67.7 … Gehrig
61.6 … Pujols
59.4 … Foxx
48.8 … Mize
48.2 … Bagwell
47.7 … Greenberg
47.2 … Sisler
47.2 … Brouthers
47.0 … Conner
46.4 … Helton
So, only three 1st Basemen with a significantly better peak, so sayeth WAR.
Fractionally better that Todd Helton, ignoring the fact that first base is far from the best place to find all time greats to begin with, is NOT a Sisler appreciation stat IMHO :0
First 8 Seasons of a Career:
____________________________________
1400+ Hits
2000+ Total Bases
200+ Steals
700+ Runs
Ty Cobb
George Sisler
Ichiro Suzuki
_____________
.350+ BA
150+ OPS
Ty Cobb
Joe Jackson
Al Simmons
George Sisler
Ted Williams
Wade Boggs
________________
400 Extra Base Hits
100 Triples
Stan Musial
Paul Waner
Jim Bottomley
Rogers Hornsby
Goose Goslin
George Sisler
______________________
.400 + OBP
Strikeout Less than once in 20 PA
Since 1900, minimum 3000 PA
Paul Waner
Arky Vaughan
Jackie Robinson
Johnny Pesky
Joe Sewell
Stan Musial
Earle Combs
George Sisler
Mickey Cochrane
_______________
How about doing one that doesn’t involve hits, batting average, or low strikeout totals (three things that don’t matter)? OBP, extra base hits, OPS+, WAR, any of those in any combination he’s not going to be top 10.
And I will voice again that penalizing players for starting early. If you want to cherry pick Sisler’s peak at least do some “through age 29” stuff.
Well mosc, my cherry picking was just to illustrate who his comps were for the skills that he had. I didn’t draw any conclusions.
Though if i did, i might disagree with you, as in my fantasy as GM i would build a whole lineup of base stealers who don’t make outs while standing in the batters box.
________________________
Though, to your request:
First 8 Seasons:
.400 OBP
400 XBH
150 OPS+
40 WAR
by WAR:
Ted Williams
Albert Pujols
Mickey Mantle
Wade Boggs
Stan Musial
Rogers Hornsby
Johnny Mize
Jeff Bagwell
Lou Gehrig
George Sisler (10th)
Honus Wagner
Frank Thomas
Al Simmons
Ralph Kiner
____________
A few more names on the list if you choose “through age 29”
Ty Cobb
Babe Ruth
Mel Ott
Tris Speaker
Joe DiMaggio
Hank Greenberg
Sisler is 13th by that method.
Side note:
With his no-hitter today, Max Scherzer has posted consecutive Game Scores of 100 and 97. As far as I can tell, 197 is the highest combined Game Score for consecutive 9-inning starts in the searchable era (1914-present).
Some other notable consecutive game totals:
187 – Nolan Ryan, July 1973 (100, 87)
186 – Roger Clemens, August 1998 (99, 87)
185 – Bobby Witt, June 1994 (99, 86)
I’m pretty sure Scherzer has the highest total, but it is possible there’s someone with a combined total greater than Ryan’s.
Also to note, Clemens had an 85 Game Score in the start preceding his 99.
R. A. Dickey had consecutive starts with game scores of 95 and 96 for 191 in 2012.
Thanks, Richard.
SInce I was only checking to see if anyone could top Scherzer, rather than trying to generate a complete list of highest combined GS in consecutive 9-inning games, I only checked pitchers with a Game Score of 99+ – thankfully, there are only 20 such (9-inning) games in the searchable era.
I found three other pitchers who pitched 2 consecutive games consisting of a 1-hitter and a no-hitter (9 IP). They are Dazzy Vance (1925), Howard Ehmke (1923) and Jim Tobin (1944). There has been one other game in which a pitcher lost his perfect game on an HBP in the 9th inning with two out. It occurred on 7-4-1908. Here’s the story.
Lefthander Hooks Wiltse pitches a 10-inning no-hitter for the Giants over the Phillies 1-0. He loses his bid for a perfect 9 innings when‚ with 2 outs‚ he hits Phils P George McQuillan with a pitch on a 1-and-2 count. Ump Charles Rigler calls the pitch earlier a ball‚ to the dismay of Hooks and the fans‚ who thought it a strike. Rigler later admitted that he could have called a strike. Art Devlin scores the winner in the 10th after singling off George McQuillan and coming around on two errors.
Vance’s pair look most similar to Scherzer’s.
– No-hitter followed one-hitter
– Only one walk over two games
– Faced only two (Vance) and three (Scherzer) batters over minimum
– Similar game scores (all four games over 90)
Vance allowed a run and no walks in his no-hitter, as Brooklyn made 3 errors behind him. Both of his games came at home against the Phillies.
Dean Chance had a two-game game score total of 210 in 1964.
Generated 6/22/2015.
I figured that if the parameters were expanded to include extra-inning games, there might well be someone with a higher total. Thanks for digging that one up.
When I think back to the view of baseball history I had in the late 1950s and early 1960s, this dismissal of Sisler seems sacrilegious. He was unquestionably among the greatest players ever. (It didn’t hurt that his sons kept his name alive at a time when there had not yet been too many sons of great players in the game.) Moreover, he was Branch Rickey’s first great find (Rickey took Sisler, as a pitcher, along with him from the University of Michigan, where he’d managed him, to St. Louis – my recollection is that Sisler debuted by outpitching Walter Johnson).
But I suppose it was Bill James who prepared me for this years ago – I was amazed at how relatively empty Sisler’s spectacular numbers were. I agree that Sisler is actually not CoG material. He’s not even a particularly strong member of the Hall.
Campy, The Goose, Hartnett
I really only think Campy belongs. Mosc’s post (@6) makes some good points about Campanella. The years are hard on catchers, and Campy’s problem years were all related to injuries received as a catcher. He probably did probably play about 1000 games of professional catching before coming to the majors, mostly due to his race (though no team in the majors would have promoted him at age 15 or 16). When you realize how much gas was used up over the period 1937-47, waiting to be eligible for the majors, it’s amazing that he was still at MVP strength in 1955.
Catchers on teams with outstanding records generally don’t get enough credit for pitcher handling. From ’49 through ’56 the Dodgers generally had good pitching staffs, but not dominant ones, and I give Campy significant credit for their effectiveness. Following this line of thought, and in deference to Mosc for his good post, I’m voting for Harnett for the first time. (Can’t go as far with Nettles – I really loved his glove, despite the pinstripes on the sleeve, but I simply don’t recall him as a player anyone thought of as Hallworthy when he played, much less CoGworthy. It’s easier for me to be persuaded by advanced stats that a player I never saw, like Sisler, isn’t up to his historical reputation than it is to persuade me that a player whose career I watched all the way through was so consistently underrated – by everyone else, but certainly by me.)
epm: In what way is it meant that Sisler’s spectacular numbers were empty?
@60/RC;
In #43 above, you are referring to “…it was Bill James who prepared me for this… – I was amazed at how relatively empty Sisler’s spectacular numbers were…” From what I remember James wrote in his BJNHA (sorry, I am at work, don’t have it in front of me):
– rated him about 25th all-time amongst first basemen
– “one of the most overrated players in MLB history”
– called his .340 ‘an empty .340’
– defensive value not close to his reputation
– figured out that 61% of his value was from hitting singles, the highest vallue in MLB history for someone with a real career – this would be the crux of the ‘spectacu\lar but empty numbers’ argument
– wrote that many players with BA’a far below his had OBA’a as good or better than his
My main criticism of what James wrote is that he evaluates Sisler’s career numbers, but doesn’t consider separately his pre-sinusitis peak before 1923, which is quite spectacular.
I think that Sisler is a perfect example of the difference between our COG and the actual baseball HOF; to me, he’s a fairly obvious HOFer, based on his tremendous peak from 1916-1922. However, I think while he deserves consideration for the COG, he falls a little short. I’d vote for the first baseman on the ballot that is his opposite in almost every respect (Harmom Killebrew) before Sisler – but that’s a whole separate post.
LA: Thanks for the response. I’m an old-timer and it looks like I’m stuck in epm’s first two sentences. It looks like Sisler’s drawbacks, even in his best years, was that he was short on HRs and BBs. That tends to suppress his OBP and OPS+. But his .420 BA in 1922 was 135 points above the AL average, a mark that few players have matched. He was also an excellent base-stealer. Among first-basemen he is second career-wise in SB, is 1 of only 4 to lead the league, and is the only one with 6 seasons of 30+ SB. And he is only 1 of 7, regardless of position, to lead the league at age 34+. I will probably judge him the way I did Koufax.
@95/RC;
Let’s go all-WAR on Sisler:
WAR Position Players:
1917 AL 5.9 (5th)
1918 AL 6.8 (1st)
1919 AL 6.1 (4th)
1920 AL 9.8 (2nd)
1921 AL 5.7 (5th)
1922 AL 8.7 (1st)
Pretty impressive – one of the best five players (at least) in the AL every year, over a six year period. BUT, is that enough?? I don’t know how to manipulate the B-R search features to find similar cases. There may be other non-HOF players with a similar profile, in which case Sisler’s feat above isn’t quite as good an argument.
The first first baseman I thought of was Keith Hernandez, but he wasn’t quite as impressive: from 1979 to 1984, 3rd, 3rd, 3rd (missed Top-10), 8th, 7th. Harmon Killebrew, whom I mentioned above as Sisler’s mirror opposite, also made the Top-10 in Position Player WAR six times, but not consecutively and with less impressive finishes.
For those of you who don’t trust WAR’s defensive values, here are just his hitting WAR:
Adj. Batting Wins
1916 AL 2.3 (8th)
1917 AL 4.2 (4th)
1918 AL 3.5 (4th)
1919 AL 3.6 (5th)
1920 AL 7.0 (2nd)
1921 AL 3.0 (6th)
1922 AL 5.9 (1st)
Don’t know if this will help but here are 5 position players (non-HOFers, retired) with exactly 6 seasons of 5.7+ WAR, same as Sisler.
Ken Boyer
Bobby Grich
Nomar Garciaparra
Alan Trammell
Jeff Bagwell
Nomar is a VERY good comp IMHO.
Hi Richard, Sorry I was slow to respond, but Lawrence got the gist of what I’d reply, and more, though he went a little beyond what James wrote (at least I can’t find the 61% singles reference). James rated Sisler just under Mickey Vernon (not a good call, I think). I suspect he wrote about Sisler in his annual Abstracts earlier – it seems to me that my own rethinking of Sisler predates the 2001 BJHBA by many years, and I certainly didn’t come by it myself.
I can see a Sisler/Koufax parallel – although Koufax was a power pitcher, which is a contrast to a singles hitter, and his five-year league dominance was more profound – but when you and I were young, Sisler wasn’t viewed as a short-career guy: his totals were as important as his peaks, particularly his .340 average, which was the key career number. Look at Sisler’s BR lifetime comparables: Heinie Manush, Zach Wheat, Kiki Cuyler . . . I’m a big Zach Wheat fan, but that’s not the company I grew up thinking Sisler kept.
By the way, I was wrong: Sisler outpitched Johnson (2-1) in his sixth start, not his first, and he lost to The Big Train in his fourth start.
Killebrew, Winfield, Sisler
Vote Update!
And I can’t believe I’m getting to write this, but… it’s WIDE-OPEN RACE! I mean, seriously – anyone could win! Usually, even by this early (10 votes – J.R. @45) the thing is virtually locked-up. We have a two-horse race at catcher with a couple of other strong hitters right behind, but the margins are so slim at this point that ANYONE could come back to take it! Also, rounds like this often lead to others storing up extra rounds, which I’m sure some of them would appreciate. On to it.
* = off the bubble:
5 – Roy Campanella*, Gabby Hartnett
=========================50%
4 – Goose Goslin*, Graig Nettles
3 – George Sisler
=========================25%
2 – Kevin Brown*, Luis Tiant
1 – Dwight Evans, Harmon Killebrew*, Ted Lyons, Hoyt Wilhelm*, Dave Winfield
0 – Richie Ashburn, Dennis Eckersley, Rick Reuschel
(Also, shout-out to Burleigh Grimes, one of the best players ever from my home state!)
Winfield
Sisler
Grimes – Most Wins 1893 – 1934
439 Young
416 Johnson
373 Alexander
373 Mathewson
326 Plank
270 Grimes
269 Nichols
266 Rixey
254 Faber
249 Willis
This is the context in which Grimes was remembered when he was elected to the Hall of Fame. A lot of bums on this list, however, somehow they made Cooperstown. Apparently, with an ERA+ of 108, Grimes may have been the first guy ever to pitch to the score
Eckersley, Ashburn, Killewbrew
Thinkging things through before I vote…
on the ballot, for whom I have previously voted:
Killebrew
Lyons
Ashburn
Wilhelm
KLAW!
Holdovers I might also consider:
Campanella
Nettles
Winfield
Newcomers worth a look:
George Sisler
George Burns — this is the George Burns who turned an unassisted triple play. The George Burns who hit for the cycle was born in 1889, and the George Burns who had a radio show with Gracie Allen was born Nathan Birnbaum in 1896.
(Retrosheet.org description:
9/14/1923 AL Boston Red Sox vs AL Cleveland Indians Fenway Park I
Top 2 Inning Score V-H 0 – 2 PLAY SEQUENCE: 3*-3*-3* Source: From TSN
Event: 3(B)1X2(3)3(2)/LTP # Men On: 2 [ 1-2 ] BOS vs CLE
Batter: Frank Brower First Rube Lutzke Second Riggs Stephenson Third
Batter: 1 G B Runner 1: 2 T 12 Runner 2: 3 D 2 Runner 3: 0
Out# Type Loc: Out# Type Loc: Out# Type Loc: Out# Type Loc:
{Out Type: D=Doubled-Off F=Forced G=Gloved T=Tagged X=Strike-Out; Out Loc: Retrosheet Field Location}
Frank Brower (CLE) is the batter with [unknown] count. He hits a line drive right to the 1B (George Burns) who speared the ball while moving to his right. (OUT 1)
1B then reached out and tagged the runner from first, Rube Lutzke (OUT 2)
1B dashed to second and slid into it a few feet ahead of the runner from second, Riggs Stephenson, who was trying to return to the base (OUT 3)
NOTE: UNASSISTED TRIPLE PLAY – SECOND REGULAR SEASON UTP IN MLB HISTORY
Seems a good time to review remaining candidates again now that some “open” rounds may be coming….
Each birth year shows their new candidates: names without HOF/Other designators are the more likely ones:
Possible COG Inductees (As of 1893 ballot – 97 in, 22 to go)
1893: 1 HOF (Sisler) + 3 HOF (Grimes/Haines/Roush)
1892: 1 HOF (Schalk)
1891: Vance + 3 HOF (Bancroft/Maranville/Rixey)
1890: 2 HOF (Carey/S. Rice) + 1 Other (U. Shocker)
1889: Coveleski
1888: Speaker, Faber, Wheat
1887: W. Johnson, P. Alexander, E. Collins + J. Jackson + 1 HOF (Hooper)
1886: Cobb, Baker + 1 HOF (Marquard)
1885:
1884: 1 HOF (Bender) + 2 Others (Magee/Cicotte)
1883: 1 Other (Quinn)
1882:
1881: E. Walsh + 1 HOF (Evers)
1880: Mathewson, S. Crawford + 2 HOF (Joss/Tinker)
1879: 1 HOF (Bresnahan) + 1 Other (N. Hahn)
1878:
1877:
1876: V. Willis, R. Waddell, M. Brown + 2 HOF (Chance/Flick)
1875: Plank
1874: Wagner, LaJoie + 1 HOF (Chesbro) + 1 Other (Powell)
1873: B. Wallace
1872: Clarke + 1 HOF(W. Keeler)
1871: McGinnity
1870: G. Davis + Dahlen + 1 HOF (J. Collins)
1869:
1868:
1867: C. Young
46 HOFs + 8 others upcoming to evaluate for only 22 spots (26 HOF + 4 others have real shot) along with ~40 backlog/redemption guys.
With 27 remaining birth years and only 22 spots, some combining of slower birth years likely at various points. Only open years: 1893 (holdover – Hartnett?), 1892-91 (Vance or holdover), 1890-89 (Coveleski or holdover), 1883-82 (J. Jackson or holdover), 1881 (Walsh or holdover), 1879 (Sam Crawford or holdover), 1878-1877 (holdover), 1876 (M. Brown or holdover), 1869-68 (Dahlen or holdover). Assumes Davis/Dahlen/Young all eligible for COG, otherwise last 3 rounds will offer more holdover spots.
Including backlog/redemption favorites, ~ 94 players will be mentioned, 70 of them with a real chance to make the COG.
Breaking down the candidates 1893 to 1867 (primarily post-1900 careers):
Slam dunks: 14
The following players coming up should easily make the COG (7 are top 20 all-time in WAR, all in top 95):
Young, W. Johnson, Cobb, Speaker, Wagner, E. Collins, P. Alexander, LaJoie, Mathewson, Plank, G. Davis, Dahlen (the only non-HOFer), S. Crawford, B. Wallace.
All earned over 70 WAR. Everyone over 70 WAR for their position has gotten in not named Palmiero (Ruffing and Lyons got 70 WAR from pitching and hitting combined but have not made it). Davis, Dahlen and Crawford somehow were overlooked by the BBWAA despite earning 75+ WAR (maybe Davis/Dahlen were thought of as old-timers and Crawford’s triples were underappreciated). The one that could be argued against may be Wallace (pitched, played outfield/3B/2B before settling in at SS in his 8th season – played 25 years through age 44). Even conservative voting should fill 13 of the 22 remaining slots from this group.
Got a shot: 12
The following players coming up should be in the discussion for the COG (all but one have from 60-70 WAR):
Faber, Clarke, Willis, Coveleski, E. Walsh (an early Koufax), HR Baker, Vance, Shoeless Joe Jackson (the only non-HOFer), Waddell, McGinnity, Wheat, M. Brown.
M. Brown only accrued 55.1 WAR in 14 years, but 239-130 W-L with a 2.06 ERA in any era is a notable achievement. Faber/Willis have high WAR but high losses also from their poor teams (Ted Lyons syndrome), and Vance/Waddell/Walsh had <200 Wins and <3000 IP. Coveleski/McGinnity barely got 3000 IP (215-142, 2.89/246-142, 2.66) and Wheat got 2880 H in large part from his era (final 8 years of 19 year career in the slug-happy 20’s). If they are passed on, we have Clarke /Baker/J. Jackson/M. Brown. 4 from this group getting in would leave 4-5 slots remaining, and the others will battle holdovers on the backlog for those spots.
What ifs: 4
The following players coming up may get “what if” credit for the COG (all had shortened or impaired careers): Cicotte (banned at age 36 with 209-148, 2.38 ERA), Shocker (died at age 37 with 187-117, 3.17 ERA), Sisler (sinusitis retired him by age 37 with 2810 H, .340 avg), and Joss (died at age 31 with 160-97, 1.89 ERA. Cicotte and Shocker’s cases are weaker, and some or none at all may get in depending on backlog competition during their year and voter sentiment.
No real chance: 24
The following players probably do not offer enough to be COG material, based on previous selections (50-60 WAR and no compelling narrative): Magee (non-HOF), Quinn (non-HOF), Rixey, J. Powell (non-HOF), Carey, Keeler, Tinker, Flick, J. Collins, Hooper, S. Rice. Arguments can be made that some have fairly solid HOF talent/narrative (Keeler and J. Collins in particular) but most are really just HOF level, not truly COG. There are 13 more that do not reach 50 WAR, and barely make HOF level: Bancroft (16 yrs, 2000H as key SS), Bender (212 W in just 3000 IP), Bresnahan (pioneering C), Chance, Chesbro (1 big 41 W season, < 200W), Evers, Grimes (270 W, spitballer), N. Hahn (non HOFer, 45.9 WAR with 130-94 record in 8 – really 6 years!), Haines, Maranville, Marquard, Rousch, Schalk. Telling is the fact that of the 20 HOFers above, the BBWAA only chose 2 of them (Keeler and Maranville) while the rest were products of various committees. 5 other HOFers played over ½ their career in the 1890’s and thus cannot be considered: Griffith, J. Kelly, McGraw, Nichols, and Rusie.
And the guys we’ve seen that have not made it yet to the COG (born 1894 or later):
Backlog possibilities: 13
The backlog has 3 types of players on it as of 1893: High WAR (65+)/non-HOFers (K. Brown, Reuschel, Nettles, Dw. Evans, Tiant), High WAR (60-65)/HOFers (T. Lyons, Goslin, Winfield, Ashburn, Eckersley, Killebrew, Hartnett, Wilhelm) and a segregation-impacted guy (Campanella – see below). Some have seen decent support, so a few may battle their way in for the remaining slots.
Redemption hopes: 13 – 23 (depending on preferences)
A few redemption candidates may rise up to fight for a spot: Palmiero (can 71 WAR, 3000 H and 500+ HR overcome steroid taint?), Sutton (nearly 69 WAR and 324 Wins but seen as compiler, T. John similar), Drysdale (61.2 pitching WAR + 7.7 hitting WAR), B. Bell (66 WAR, 2500 H – able 3B), Randolph (65 WAR, best 2B option), Dawson (64 WAR, 438 HR, best RF option – R. Smith similar ratios in fewer AB’s), Bi. Williams (63 WAR, 426 HR, best LF option), K. Boyer (63 WAR, popular 3B option), McGwire (a popular 1B option but only 62 WAR and 1600 H), D. Cone (61.7 WAR – efficient P but <200 Wins – some may prefer Newhouser or Bunning), Edmonds (60.3 WAR, best CF option), D. Allen (58.7 WAR in short career), or T. Simmons (popular C, Torre possible also with some 3B). No real SS options left. Other longer-shot options for various reasons include Ruffing/Ferrell/Medwick/Kent/Slaughter. All of these players have been passed on, so chances of any actually getting into the COG are slim.
Segregation impacted: 4
The following backlog/redemption candidates had their careers shortened by the color line and may get support: Minoso (late start to career, 2000 H), Campanella (10 year career, paralyzed at 36), Doby (13 year career, 1500 H), Satchel Paige (6 years, 476 IP). All but Minoso are in the HOF, and “what if” credit may get someone in.
A total of 60 players (70 with substitutions) were discussed as likely candidates for the remaining 22 slots in the COG. 24 other players to be seen have no real shot. Competition will be strong through the end and someone’s favorite will not get there. As the BBWAA adds players, the COG can expand later to fill gaps, but few real grievous omissions are likely with this electorate. This list and discussion is intended to remind folks of the options coming up (since none of us have seen these guys play) and help with vote planning down the stretch.
Hope this proves useful.
Oops:
Drysdale’s batting WAR is 5.9, not 7.7 (67 total WAR is still impressive)
McGinnity managed to condense 60 WAR into a 10 year career 1899-1908. 246 wins in 3400 innings pitched shows he was a winner and a real workhorse. He also managed better than 100 more wins than losses – few can make that claim. I think he will generate some good debate.
Jack Powell heads up the list of obscure players over 55 WAR I’d never heard of before (1897-1912, 245W-254L, 2.97 ERA, 106 ERA+, 4400 innings) seems to have been just good enough to stay for lots of abuse. Won a bit with the Spiders and Cardinals, then after joining the Browns in 1902 had one good year. 1903-1912 was mostly losing seasons – too bad for him, just stuck with bad teams.
Happy Father’s Day to all the Dads out there.
Wonderful stuff.
There’s much to talk about here and I’m sure others will be weighing in but I’ll start with the “Got a shots”.
There are only 2 on this list that I’m currently strongly leaning towards, Baker & Vance. I am prone to giving credit for time lost to segregation or WW2, much less so with injuries or for other reasons. That said I still think Baker & Vance belong. Even with the playing time that they missed I still think they are at worst right at the cutoff line as far as qualifying. Even if you think that they fall on the wrong side of that line it’s not much of a stretch to think that someone who missed ALL of what are normally a pitchers prime years or someone who sat out an entire season in his prime because he played at a time when owners held all the card and yet another season because he stayed home to care for his children after his wife died still belong among the “best” 119 players ever.
I’m still undecided about Jackson & Brown. Like Baker & Vance, Jackson is right on the line. Unlike them however, it harder to sympathetic for the reasons his career was so short. WAR is not kind to Three Finger Brown. The problem with that is that he was the best player on a team that AVERAGED 100 wins a year, and in a time when they played a 154 game schedule. Yes, he had a few very good teammates who had a few great seasons among them but how on earth can a team be that good for that long without a great player? I’m looking forward to the discussions on both of them.
The rest are all no’s for me, altho I have to admit that there are a few that I’ve only given a cursory glance so far so I might change my mind on someone. My strongest objections are to the pitchers. Coveleski (like Grimes on our current list) benefited greatly from a change in the rules. He’s borderline anyways and I don’t see how his advantage of being allow to continue doing something that had come to be viewed as unfair and not in the best interests of the game should be rewarded. I’m also skeptical about the dead-ball era pitchers with short careers. It was a different game when a pitcher could throw 400 innings because they didn’t have to worry about someone hitting the ball out of the park & I just don’t see them as standing out enough to make up for the length of their careers. Waddell is perhaps a more interesting case but I don’t see him qualifying either.
Sisler was the only “What if” player listed I was considering and I’ve decided against him. And I don’t see anyone in your no chance list I disagree with.
At a glance I’m leaning towards your 14 slam dunks (altho there are 3 that I might be convinced otherwise on) plus Vance & Baker.
That means- for me at least- that we have room for 6 guys off either the holdover list or from the redemption rounds.
I know who my top 4 picks are and I’m almost certain that one guy that I’ve decided against (altho I think he’s really close) is an inevitable selection.
Which of about a dozen possibilities am I going to support for the last spot?
Darned if I know.
Good points Hartvig,
I too am leaning toward Baker (no for Wheat). Many voters will have issues with J. Jackson’s situation and not give him any credit for missed time. Your points and discussion on Sisler have convinced me he is not a viable option, and I am not thrilled about the other “what ifs” (Joss is interesting but career too short).
The pitchers will be hardest to deal with, and I’m feeling Walsh’s sudden decline after injury (despite his peak) and Coveleski’s career just do not cut it – both were spitball kings as you mentioned. Faber and Willis don’t impress either. Waddell I have just short.
I probably should have put Vance, McGinnity and M. Brown on the “what if” list as all got late career starts (Vance at 31, McGinnity at 28, M. Brown at 27). Once they got started, they all excelled – McGinnity pitched in the minors for 199 wins after his brief 10 yrs and 246 wins in the majors! All 3 should generate some fun discussions.
Separating the backlog guys is really tough – surprised that Hartnett isn’t seeing more love.
Thanks for the summary; it was excellent.
Two other factors:
Depending on how quickly/slowly rounds go up & down, we’re ALSO going to run into BBWAA voting – and you know what that means! That means more potential Hall of Famers, which means more spots in the COG! We’ll ALSO need to account for the 1971 birth year when that comes around, which will be at the tail end or after our voting ends. Ayayay!
I’m really hoping that the BBWAA comes thru with more than 2 selections because I’m pretty sure that Pedro and Pudge are both locks for the COG. I’m thinking that Griffey & Piazza are probably safe bets & it’s not out of the question that either Bagwell or Raines could see a big enough uptick in support to make it as well.
I know that there’s no chance of Trammell getting in but I’m hoping that at least in his final year of eligibility he will garner enough support to finally break 40% in the voting. Meanwhile I will continue my work on a letter I intend to send out to everyone who didn’t vote for him calling into question not only their understanding of baseball and talents as a writer but they’re loyalty to our country and qualifications as a member of the human race as well.
Not that it bothers me or anything.
Hartvig – I looked before and it’s quite rare that someone makes a 20% voting jump in one year in order to get elected. (what Bagwell and Raines would need).
Larkin did it, but the ballot was very empty at that point. That’s no longer the case.
Plus, there will be some idiot voters who will claim that Griffey should go into the Hall by himself and only vote for him.
So while Griffey is virtually guaranteed election, and Piazza has a very good shot, I’d be shocked if anyone else gets in.
I know it’s unpopular on here but I don’t view Whitaker as a hall of famer let alone a COG member. That said, I really cannot understand any HOF line that doesn’t put Trammel above. Especially because the HOF is not supposed to ignore his general character, managing, and other front office contributions I don’t get the Trammel voting. I can understand not voting for Pudge, but not when somebody leaves of Trammel.
All that aside, I don’t think he’s the best non-roid guy who’s failed to get elected. Right now I’d say that’s Schilling. Position player for me it was always Santo but now that he’s in I have a hard time separating Nettles, Trammel, and Grich. They don’t perfectly overlap in age but what an infield that would have been.
Good stuff, Dave, but is George Davis eligible? I thought you had to have 50% of your PAs in the 20th Century, and Davis only has 45%.
Good question bstar.
I did the evaluations assuming that Dahlen, Davis, and Cy Young are all eligible for the COG, until Doug announces otherwise. All 3 have their cases (Dahlen being the weakest as David P @66 mentions with low peak WAR). Davis and Young would be hard to pass up.
But are they really eligible in the first place? Where should the cutoff be – at pre 1900 or pre 1901?
I first looked at:
Percentage of games played for career:
Pre-1900 Dahlen: 45.3% Davis 53.5% C. Young 51.2%
1900+ Dahlen: 54.7% Davis 46.5% C. Young 48.8%
Pre-1901 Dahlen: 50.8% Davis 58.3% C. Young 55.7%
1901+ Dahlen: 49.2% Davis 41.7% C. Young 44.3%
Only Dahlen had a majority of his games from 1900 on (but not from 1901 on – he’s very evenly split).
When did they earn the most value? I next checked out:
WAR earning percentages for career:
Pre-1900 Dahlen: 51.4% Davis 50.6% C. Young 53.0%
1900+ Dahlen: 48.6% Davis 49.4% C. Young 47.0%
Pre-1901 Dahlen: 55.6% Davis 55.4% C. Young 57.4%
1901+ Dahlen: 44.4% Davis 44.6% C. Young 42.6%
All 3 earned the majority of WAR before 1900 (though Davis comes very close) and it is very clear for pre-1901.
One could look at PA’s and other measures and get similar results. Using 1901 as the divide (the first year of the American League/16 teams/deadball) would seem appropriate. All 3 contributed most prior to 1901 – moving the line to 1900 only puts Dahlen into consideration.
Looking at the cold numbers, I would consider all 3 as old-timers (and Dahlen/Davis seem to have been considered such at the time). Cy Young was just too great for the BBWAA to ignore (although some did feel he was early era too). If they are not eligible for the COG, they certainly would merit placement in an equivalent early Greats group anyway. That would also incidentally give 3 more holdovers some spots, so I think it’s a win either way.
We’ll have to see what Doug’s final decision is to know for sure who will be considered.
I seem to recall at some point birtelcom talking about Cy Young being the cutoff point for who would be included in the COG voting because he was elected by the BBWAA. That said, until the happy day that birtelcom finally does rejoin us I think that this is Doug’s baby and whatever he decides is fine by me.
On the IN side I can see where the argument about Young having been elected by the BBWAA does make some sense. I suspect an outsider looking at the 2 lists side-by-side would certainly notice it and that there would have be some explanation. Selecting George Davis would also be someone we could point to as our having done a better job than the BBWAA.
On the OUT side is the reality that the reason Young wasn’t included in the original class of inductees was that even in 1936 about half of the voters thought he belonged with the Old Timers. It would hardly be surprising that if 80 years later we were to do the same.
It might also open up some spots for players currently on the holdover or redemption lists that might also be great fodder for discussion as well as possibly being players that would differentiate us from the BBWAA
My two cents is that we should continue to add players by birth year, not by how much time they played in the 19th vs 20th century.
In other words, it makes little sense to me to leave George Davis off of the 1870 ballot while including others from the same birth year. I say put him on and let the voters decide if he belongs in the COG or not.
I also say we go back to Cy Young’s birth year since – for better or for worse – he was elected by the BBWAA. And if can’t get back to his birth year due to lack of slots, he’ll just have to wait till more open up based on future HOF voting. My guess is that Young won’t protest too loudly if he has to wait a while to be elected. 🙂
Cy Young won 225 games from 1901-11 and generated over 70 WAR. It doesn’t make much sense to me to exclude him from the COG because he did even more before 1901.
This argument will not fit Davis and Dahlen – good as they were, their post-1900 stats would not be COGworthy on their own.
I suspect that Dahlen and Wallace may find it harder to get in than what Dave H is suggesting in his #52. Perhaps Crawford as well though he doesn’t have quite the issues of the other two.
1) Both Dahlen and Wallace are high career WAR, low peak WAR guys, similar in that regard to Lou Whitaker. Dahlen is 7th is career shortstop WAR, Wallace is 13th. But in 7 Year WAR, they’re only 17th and 21st (Wallace is actually ahead of Dahlen, despite the lower career WAR).
2) Some voters may dismiss/downplay what they did in the 19th century.
3) They both garner a fair amount of their WAR from defense. Voters may dismiss/downplay the accuracy of defensive stats from so long ago.
4) They’ll both suffer from lack of name recognition (and Dahlan from being completely ignored by the HOF).
5) To the extent that anyone looks at Fangraphs WAR, Wallace only has 62.4 WAR. Dahlen is still okay with 77.5 WAR.
Crawford also has the 1st problem (8th in career RF WAR, 21st in 7 year WAR) but not the others.
Those are the exact 3 that I was thinking of what I said I might be convinced otherwise about being slam dunks.
I know that one of the things that we should be doing is considering players as what they were in their own time- in other words, did Bobby Wallace have as big an impact on the game and teams he played for in the 1890’s & 1900’s as did Barry Larkin did in the 1980’s & 90’s, not just if the 2 were standing in front of you which would you take.
But I also don’t think that we have to entirely ignore the fact that it was a very different game back then either and not only on the field. If you’re read The Glory Of Their Times or players biographies or other books from that era you read about guys who got tryouts with major league teams because they or someone else wrote a letter to the manager. About fans being called out of the stands to play in major league games. About how they got a chance because they had a good day on the field when someone was there to look at another player and that player didn’t. To say that scouting was haphazard at best is a gross understatement.
You add to that things like segregation, very few players coming from states that didn’t at least border the Mississippi from the west, that baseball had yet to blossom to the south of the US & elsewhere, just that the population of the US in general was so much less than it is now and even things like nutrition- all of these factors and more mean that the further we go back in the games history you find a much more inconsistent product & level of talent. And I think that “inconsistency” was still pretty steep in the first decade of the last century.
I’m not trying to say that Honus Wagner or Cy Young weren’t great, great players. I’m not even saying that Bobby Wallace or Bill Dahlen don’t belong in the COG.
I saying that there is a difference between a player who’s talent relative to the rest of the league is at about the same level as say Alan Trammell or Lou Whitaker when someone like Bill Bergen or Frank Isbell can last as a regular player in that league for a decade.
That certainly shouldn’t be our only consideration or maybe even a major one. But I believe it’s at least something to consider when we’re looking at players who don’t stand head and shoulders above the rest in that era.
David P #66:
Agreed that Dahlen, Crawford, and Wallace are the weakest of my “slam dunk” predictions, but here’s some counters:
1) Dahlen and Wallace do have high career WAR, low peak WAR similarities to Whitaker. Did not stop us from putting Whitaker in the COG for his consistency over a long career (20 years for Dahlen and 25 for Wallace shows their durability). Both may have been the Whitaker/Trammells of their time.
2) Voters downplaying what they did in the 19th century may hurt Dahlen a bit, but Wallace was a pitcher from 1894-1896 and not a position player until 1897. His better years did not come until after 1900 (he played 1894-1918).
3) Defensive stats from early baseball are hard to gauge, but both Dahlen and Wallace were acknowledged as superior defenders during their careers by their peers, putting up huge numbers for putouts and assists. Wallace was adept at double plays with a high fielding percentage. Dahlen added speed with over 500 SB.
4) Hopefully our continued debates about their merits will improve name recognition at least with our voters.
5) Often overlooked is that Bobby Wallace has 6.1 pitching WAR in ADDITION to his 70.2 batting WAR – 76.3 total WAR by Baseball Reference should get a little notice. He was so athletic he continued as a shortstop until age 44 – who else did that besides Vizcaino?
Sam Crawford set the MLB triple record with 309 (in cavernous deadball-era parks the triple was a telling stat of superior hitters). He also led the league in HR twice and RBI’s three times, batting .309 for his career. Just the name Wahoo Sam makes you pull for him.
Just a few reasons I rated these guys so well.
Thanks for the excellent reply David H! #106
Here are some counters:
1) The advantage that Whitaker had was time. Neither Wallace or Dahlen will have that luxury. They’ll come onto the ballot very late in the process and either get elected or not. On the other hand, there may not be many decent alternatives when they join the ballot.
4) Of course, name recognition can also hurt. Many people had the view that Whitaker was a good, not great player. That view was formed by the fact that many of us remember his career. No one here remembers Wallace or Dahlen. So we’ll have to rely more on their numbers. That could help them.
5) Didn’t know that Wallace was a pitcher first. Thanks for that.
On the other hand, I suspect that lots of shortstops could do what Wallace did 1.e., playing till age 44 (btw, you meant Vizquel, not Vizcaino).
From ages 39-44, Wallace averaged 24 games, 69 PA’s and put up a 52 OPS+. His Rfield was 0, with time split between short, second, and third. Total WAR for ages 39-44 was -0.1
David P, thanks for the counter-counters.
As you pointed out, I did mean Vizquel when thinking of aging shortstops.
I did not really pay attention to Wallace’s “decline” years, but 1913-1918 only gave him -.1 WAR as you point out. 1894-1896 he was primarily a pitcher and generated -1.0 WAR with the bat. 9 years of his career generated -1.1 WAR (not a regular early or late, but did not embarrass himself either – just under replacement level throughout). His pitching WAR of 6.1 is separate from his 70.2 as I mentioned.
The funny part of my oversight is that the early and late phase numbers may help him. In 16 years from 1897-1912 he earned 71.3 WAR, averaging 4.46 WAR (a decent number, with some 5-7 WAR years involved). When he was a regular he put up good stats, and when he was a part-timer he treaded water.
His early years are easy to explain (tryout as a pitcher). His later years as a part-timer with the Browns and Cardinals showed that his teams were willing to have him even with diminished skills. For those who think Wallace is all-glove, he was in the top ten in the AL in RBI’s for 8 of the 12 seasons 1897-1908. Worth considering.
For my research, I read his SABR Bio on Baseball Reference by Scott Schul. I would recommend it to anyone wanting a better understanding of just how good a player Wallace really was in his time.
Thanks to all for the spirited discussions that have helped to broaden my knowledge of these deadball era players. I’m glad my “predictions” have stimulated debate and hope others will find them useful going forward.
Killebrew, Ashburn, Eckersley
Killebrew, Winfield, Wilhelm.
Nettles, Killebrew, Winfield.
Campanella, Tiant, Evans
Harmon Killebrew, Dennis Eckersley, George Sisler
Rick Reuschel, Kevin Brown, Ted Lyons
Campanella, Hartnett, Goslin
Killebrew, Goslin and Reuschel
It’s been just over 24 hours since my last update, but in spite of only adding a few votes, there’s been DRASTIC movement on the leaderboard, so I’d like to post another update, through MJ @67 (17th ballot):
6 – Roy Campanella*, Harmon Killebrew*
5 – Gabby Harnett, Graig Nettles
====================25% (5)
4 – Goose Goslin*, George Sisler
3 – Kevin Brown*, Dennis Eckersley, Luis Tiant, Dave Winfield
2 – Richie Ashburn, Dwight Evans, Ted Lyons, Hoyt Wilhelm*
====================10% (2)
1 – Rick Reuschel
Seriously, I’m really enjoying the openness of this round! It’s pretty cool after quite a few rounds in a row with an obvious candidate.
Sisler, Goslin, Ashburn
Nettles, Campanella, Tiant
Ashburn Reuschel Evans
Brown, Killebrew and Goslin
Campanella for the win, Nettles, Winfield.
Most Wins Above Average, excluding negative seasonal totals:
Brown 43.3
Reuschel 40.6
Tiant 37.5
Lyons 36.7
Nettles 35.7
Evans 34.9
Eckersley 34.3
Ashburn 33.9
Killebrew 33.0
Sisler 32.0
Goslin 31.7
Winfield 31.1
Hartnett 30.3
Wilhelm 28.7
Grimes 26.1
Roush 25.3
Campanella 19.2
Haines 14.2
Four Hall of Fame newcomers, each of whom had a lot of negative WAA seasons on his resume, while only Sisler has even a mild case for the CoG. Meanwhile, Kevin Brown and Jeff Bagwell and Bobby Grich are not Hall of Famers.
Brown, Reuschel, Eckersley
Mine:
Kevin Brown
Luis Tiant
Dennis Eckersley
Sisler, Nettles, and Eckersley.
Thank you.
OK. I don’t vote in these things, but here’s how I seen the serious candidates currently on the ballot:
Killebrew—one dimensional slugger.
Campanella—short erratic career, and notwithstanding his presumed greatness in the NNL, there’s not enough to substantiate it on the basis of the records we have. Apocryphal legend isn’t enough. Compare his known stats with those of Josh Gibson, and what you see is a shadow. Further, Campy’s SABR bio is full of misinformation, blatant and otherwise, that does him no credit. He was NOT the IL MVP in 1947 or even close. Hank Sauer was. Sherm Lollar had a better year.
Brown—I personally have no trouble accepting the fact that Brown’s sudden leap to excellence has only one explanation, and therefore to assert that he oughtn’t to be considered seriously, not because he dabbled in pharma but because—unlike Bonds and Clemens, to name two— he wasn’t good enough when he wasn’t dabbling.
Goslin—what you see is what there is: an exceptional player on exceptional teams. Is he exceptional enough?
Wilhelm—The aura surrounding his career glows greater now than when it was happening. A remarkable pitcher in many respects, but never a sure thing when he came in in the late innings. If Wilhelm is a viable candidate, then how many other relievers have to be considered as viable, who have been passed by? Relief pitching is hard to assess for the COG.
Ashburn—a favorite player of mine, whom I once met and found a gentleman. Don’t know that his fielding is given its due by fWAR, but his offense may be a little light.
Eckersley—6 of one, half dozen of the other, but not really quite a full dozen.
Dwight Evans—a fan favorite whom I see no reason for being in the hunt. Very good, not great.
Hartnett—the lack of support for him is puzzling. The NL version of Cochrane, or flip side, maybe. Easy going but tough. The key player on the Cubs near dynasty of the thirties. A catcher.
Lyons—the arc of his career is impossible to credit, but there it is.
Nettles—Great fielder, but his hitting is overrated by supporters. Length of career is impressive.
Reuschel—like Lyons, he has a very peculiar career. Hard to evaluate, but credible.
Tiant—another crowd pleaser—is it Boston?—but with more substance. A player who re-invented himself.
Winfield—length of career is his strength, but I don’t find that enough.
Sisler—One half of a great career. The comparison with Koufax isn’t really apt, though. Chuck Klein would be better.
Grimes—a little like Brown. His excellence is built on a questionable foundation, the illegal but legal spitter, in his case.
With the exception of Campanella we are pretty much in sync on everyone that you commented on.
The Chuck Klein comparison with Sisler is actually pretty good- better than I thought it would be until I looked more closely. Ralph Kiner works pretty well too. Nomar Garciaparra isn’t too bad either. I don’t think he would be a bad choice but I also think there are some that are more deserving.
Vote:
Hartnett
Nettles
Wilhelm
Reuschel, Wilhelm, Campanella
Sisler, Winfield, Nettles
Roush, Killebrew, and Eckersley.
Harmon Killebrew; Hoyt Wilhelm; George Sisler
Sisler, Hartnett, Goslin
I kind of think we need daily vote updates at this point, because we’re so hotly-contested this round. So here you go, through Richard Chester’s vote, the 31st, with * marking the guys who are off the bubble:
10 – Graig Nettles
9 – Roy Campanella*, Harmon Killebrew*, George Sisler
======================25% (8)
7 – Dennis Eckersly, Goose Goslin*, Gabby Hartnett
6 – Kevin Brown*
5 – Luis Tiant, Hoyt Wilhelm*, Dave Winfield
4 – Richie Ashburn, Rick Reuschel
3 – Dwight Evans
2 – Ted Lyons
1 – Edd Roush
Looks like Grimes has a vote too (#49 Paul E)
You are correct! Thanks! I didn’t notice that one.
Here’s the corrected list, which also includes Shard’s vote below:
11 – George Sisler
10 – Roy Campanella*, Graig Nettles
9 – Harmon Killebrew*
======================25% (8)
7 – Dennis Eckersly, Goose Goslin*, Gabby Hartnett
6 – Kevin Brown*, Dave Winfield
5 – Richie Ashburn, Luis Tiant, Hoyt Wilhelm*
4 – Rick Reuschel
3 – Dwight Evans
2 – Ted Lyons
1 – Burleigh Grimes, Edd Roush
Dr. D –
I believe the above count through #117 was missing 2 ballots, #70 and either #43 or #69 (which are identical). I’ll post my current count at the bottom of this thread.
Richie Ashburn – George Sisler – Roy Campanella
I think you just created a three way tie between Nettles, Sisler, and Campy.
Brown
Killebrew
Nettles
Voting for :
Sisler
Lyons
Wilhelm
George Sisler, Gabby Hartnett, Dave Winfield
Here’s my current tally, through 38 ballots (#137):
13 – Sisler
11- Campanella*, Killebrew*, Nettles
======================25% (10)
9 – Goslin*, Hartnett
7 – Brown*, Eckersley, Winfield
6 – Wilhelm*
5 – Ashburn, Reuschel, Tiant
======================10% (4)
3 – Evans, Lyons
1 – Grimes, Roush
Quite a race, indeed. I’m a little surprised by Sisler’s showing, and I suspect if there was a really strong candidate on the ballot he wouldn’t be faring so well.
David,
I think it would be interesting to compare the “What If” career of Sisler to the previous year’s easy winner, Harry Heilmann. Their seven year peak (Heilmann 1921-27, Sisler 1916-22) is identical. Although Heilmann racked up some WAR prior to 1921 and still performed well after his peak, I would maintain that Sisler (sans sinusitis) could/would have been his equal over the long haul. In 1921-22 after Heilmann became more than a .290 hitter, Sisler had a 14.4 to 12.1 WAR advantage. There was no indication of a falling off in Sisler’s game at that point–he may well have continued at a comparable level for a number of years.
While I understand the hesitancy to compare Sisler to Koufax, it is apparent (to me, at least) that he was a great player before 1923 (thus my vote for him) and less than average after that, but who’s to say that an arthritic Koufax wouldn’t have suffered a similar fate had he continued?
Gary –
I was never that enthusiastic about Koufax’s inclusion in the CoG, although I did vote for him once, the year he was elected, simply to help get him off the ballot and free up some votes
The thing about both his and Sisler’s “what-if” careers is that the circumstances that ended or diminished their careers were, how should I say, within the normal parameters of the fates of baseball – injury and illness happen, and while they’re not a player’s fault, I’m still not inclined to give a player extra credit for what might have been in those cases, as opposed to when a “what-if” career is due to historical circumstances above and beyond the world of baseball, e.g. military service or segregation.
Sisler had a fine peak, to be sure. His offensive skill set in his prime seems similar to me to that of the young Tony Gwynn, albeit with a little more power. Although…if Gwynn had started his career in 1992 instead of 1982, so that his prime was centered in the offensive era of the late 90s/early 00s, I suspect he could have put up raw numbers quite similar to Sisler’s.
Anyway, Sisler’s career looks to me like 7 years of peak Tony Gwynn, followed by 7 years of, oh, peak Bill Buckner (albeit with a better glove). For me that falls short of CoG-worthiness.
Gwynn is another great comp. A borderline COG candidate to many, Gwynn made it by holding on with a leaner end to his career. Nomar is the other good one I’ve heard tossed around who could not keep things together as he aged. Sisler’s peak did not guarantee anything failing injury. Segregation and war service are one thing but injury is not something I will compensate for in voting.
Here’s the three with their average WAR/season in their 7 best non-consecutive years vs their average WAR/season during the rest of their career
Sisler 6.7 / 0.9 (8 other years)
Garciaparra 6.2 / 0.2 (7 other years)
Gwynn 5.9 / 2.1 (13 other years)
Gwynn’s not QUITE as high a peak but has so much more value career wise that he looks like a candidate. I would note again that a lot of people didn’t think Gwynn had enough of a resume as it was. Garciaparra got zero traction. Course, Gwynn wouldn’t even have played in the teens and 20s and Nomar didn’t exactly hit against pitchers picked based on nationality as much as ability.
To be fair to Gwynn, those 13 non-peak seasons include 2 seasons at the beginning and 2 seasons at the end of his career where he played less than 100 games. Plus the `94 and `95 strike seasons.
On a per game basis, Gwynn had 5.7 WAR per 162 games during his 7 peak seasons and 3.2 WAR per 162 games during his 13 non-peak seasons.
I have no desire to calculate the same for other players, but I imagine that difference is fairly normal for a player with 68.8 career WAR.
I think the best comp for Sisler that we’ve elected to the COG is Ernie Banks. Terrific 7 year peak, then he turns into Dan Driesen. Sisler’s numbers in decline look far more impressive because they happened in an offensive era and Banks in a pitchers era. Banks had 6 seasons where he was just OK vs 3 for Sisler. Both had 6 seasons where they were either a liability or played too little to have much impact.
But Ernie’s peak was better than Sisler’s. By a fair margin. And 6 OK season vs. 3 isn’t a lot but it is something. And even tho he is Ernie Banks it took him 6 tries to get into the COG & it was with one of the lowest vote totals in COG election history.
I do think Banks belongs in the COG. I have assumed for most of this process that Sisler did as well.
But now that I look at it more closely I no long believe that he does.
Hartvig – I think the Banks comparison basically works. And just like it’s hard to dismiss 500+ homeruns, it’s also hard to dismiss a batting average of .340, regardless of context or other factors. Which the voting support both have received (see also Killebrew).
BTW, here’s what I wonder about Sisler:
Let’s say we rearranged his seasons. We take his top 3 post 30 seasons (1.9, 2.2 and 2.6 WAR) and put them at the beginning of his career. We then have him retire after his age 29, 8.7 WAR season due to his health problems.
Do people then perceive him differently – more similar to Koufax? As a guy with 50+ career WAR, coming off a huge MVP season, who was forced to retire young due to health problems?
A few other notes on Sisler:
1) When he returned to baseball after his year off, he was also made the manager of the Browns, a position he held for 3 years. I wonder how the added pressure of being made manager after missing a season, affected his hitting?
2) Sisler is also credited with tutoring Jackie Robinson on how to play 1st base his first year with the Dodgers. And later he helped Robinson improve his hitting. He also tutored players like Clemente and Stargell on their hitting when he was in the Pirates organization.
I too am surprised by Sisler’s showing, particularly since I don’t think any of his 13 voters have made a case for him, whereas several people have made cases against him.
Harmon Killebrew, Hoyt Wilhelm, Dennis Eckersley
Is this a vote change, then? (see #64 for your original ballot)
Tiant, Wilhelm, Eckersley
Campanella, Hartnett, Nettles
– Dwight Evans (to stay on the COG ballot)
– Gabby Hartnett (for an extra ‘cushion’ round)
– Roy Campanella (for the win)
If koma’s 141 is a vote change that means that Campy just took the lead with Sisler & Nettles 1 vote behind.
And I’d really like to see Hartnett get off the bubble as well.
Brown, Hartnett, Lyons
For the 1893 election, I’m voting for:
-Dave Winfield
-Dennis Eckersley
-Graig Nettles
Other top candidates I considered highly (and/or will consider in future rounds):
-Evans
-Killebrew
-Brown
-Tiant
-Lyons
-Goslin
-Ashburn
-Reuschel
We have a very tight race on our hands. My tally through 43 votes (#158) is as follows:
13 – Campanella, Nettles
12 – Hartnett, Sisler
11 – Killebrew
======================25% (11)
9 – Eckersley, Goslin
8 – Brown, Wilhelm, Winfleld
6 – Tiant
5 – Ashburn, Reuschel
======================10% (5)
4 – Evans, Lyons
1 – Grimes, Roush
Note that this tally counts the ballot @ 141 as a vote change from the one @ 64 – if I recall correctly, that’s how similar situations have been handled in the past.
Side note; all 3 of the players I voted for this round (Campy, Hartnett, Nettles) are among the leading contenders. I’ve been a dedicated strategic voter for long enough now that this is very strange to me – usually most of my votes are for guys near the bottom of the count, not the top.
Let’s get some pitchers in the mix.
One for the save, two for the win.
Vote:
Dennis Eckersley
Ted Lyons
Hoyt Wilhelm
It seems to me that at one point we tried to figure out which election produced the most players being named on 25% or more of the ballots & if memory serves we decided it was 7. If my math is correct the theoretical max would be 12.
Even with your vote I kind of doubt we’ll tie that record this time around.
Killer, Goslin, Tiant I’m trying to wrap my head around the possibility of Nettles taking it. Or Campy.
“I’m trying to wrap my head around the possibility of Nettles taking it.”
DITTO. I guess that’s the problem with a democracy.
I’m trying to wrap my head around the possibility of Killer taking it.
There, I fixed it for you!
Seriously, here’s where Killer would rank among current COG position-player electees:
1) Lowest career WAA
2) Lowest career WAR (with the exception of a couple of catchers and a couple of guys who missed time due to WW2)
3) Lowest peak WAR season (Tied with Yogi at only 6.3 WAR).
I can’t find a list of all current COG electees but I’m pretty sure all those points are true.
Even on a ballot as weak as we currently have, I don’t see how Killer deserves to be in the top 8 or so. Tied for the lead. Just mind-baffling.
I hope Killer wins
Killebrew, Lyons, Eckersley
Sorry I’ve been MIA for a couple of days, but David Horwich has been doing a better job than I would’ve. 🙂
Nonetheless, I figure we need a final-day update in this still-wide-open race. This includes bstar’s vote @164, which is the 46th:
13 – Roy Campanella, Harmon Killebrew, Graig Nettles
12 – Gabby Hartnett, George Sisler
======================25% (12)
11 – Dennis Eckersley
10 – Goose Goslin
9 – Hoyt Wilhelm
8 – Kevin Brown, Dave Winfield
7 – Luis Tiant
6 – Ted Lyons
5 – Richie Ashburn, Rick Reuschel
======================10% (5)
4 – Dwight Evans
1 – Burleigh Grimes, Edd Roush
I wonder why turnout is so low so far. There are two options – one is that there are a lot of people waiting for the last second because it’s such a tight race; the other is that, without a major candidate (a Ruth or a Hornsby), people are less inclined to vote. Or it’s a combination of the two. Either way, it’ll be a fascinating last day!
Could the answer be that None of the Above isn’t an option?
I suppose there may be some people who don’t feel that any of the candidates on the ballot are worthy of inclusion in the COG.
If that’s the situation, Dave Humbert @ 52 has provided us with a wonderful summary of what candidates are yet to come and we all know who are available thru the redemption rounds- why not make a case for who you would consider to be better alternatives? And even if you’re a REALLY small Hall guy & don’t think that there are 119 people worthy of including in the COG or if you are convinced that some of your candidates aren’t going to get in- wouldn’t you at least prefer that who you consider to be the next best candidates get in?
With the exception of mosc’s favorite Satchel Paige I cannot imagine that there is anyone who is not going to get in that would be in anyones top 50 and I doubt even top 75. I suspect the overwhelming majority wouldn’t be in the top 100. So if the guys you think is the 107th & 118th best players aren’t going to make it wouldn’t you prefer that they guys you rank 121st & 124th get in rather than someone you don’t have in you top 150? Seriously, when you get down to the differences between who you rank 115th and who you rank 125th can’t the smallest shift in how you look at it change your perspective entirely?
Strictly based on his numbers I think Ted Lyons falls a little short even tho he has over 70 WAR. But if you factor in the 3 years he lost to WW2, even though he was in his 40’s, I think he does. I thought going into this round that I was probably going to vote for Sisler. I no longer do.
Is anyone really that certain of the bottom 5 or 10 guys on their lists that they are certain they may not change their mind at some point?
And if you do wouldn’t you be happier that the guy who was elected instead of them is the guy you now think belongs?
A six-way tie for first place would give us another week to properly discuss this.
Killebrew, Campanella, Hartnett, Nettles, Sisler, Eckersley.
____________________________________________________________
Nettles vs Killebrew,
through the last years each of them were league average:
124 / -2 / 145 … 35.6 / 68.4
488 / -22 / -76 .. 29.5 / 60.5
9523 PA . 1136 . 2095 . 307.27.368 . 1212
8792 PA . 1201 . 1890 . 261.23.541 . 1454
31/35 SB . 1016 W . 1103 SO
18/16 SB . 1419 W . 1509 SO
.251 / .332 / .426 / .758 / 113 / 3560
.261 / .382 / .527 / .908 / 149 / 3820
Kilebrew, Sisler, Eckersley
It’s baffling to me that someone can think Harmon doesn’t belong. He may have been a one dimensional slugger, but he did it as well as anyone without steroids other than Babe Ruth.
Killebrew, Goslin, Eck
Killer Hartnett Sisler
The last 5 ballots have all included Killebrew, who now has a 2-vote lead:
16 – Killebrew
14 – Sisler
13 – Campanella, Hartnett, Nettles
Meanwhile, with 49 ballots in, Ashburn and Reuschel hover on the edge of the bubble with 5 votes each, while Evans has but 4.
Evans, Ashburn, Killebrew
Nettles, Reuschel, Hartnett
The COG is light on 3B and C. Hartnett has the complete career over Campy. 1B both candidates among the weakest COGers if they get in (popular, yes – but their flaws have been laid out, and we have 10 better 1B already in vs. only 6 3B and 7 C). Don’t need perfect positional equality but first base has a higher bar for excellence skill-wise to me. Throwing last vote to Reuschel to keep him around.
I have the final tally as follows (51 ballots):
17 – Killebrew
14 – Hartnett, Nettles, Sisler
13 – Campanella, Eckersley
======================25% (13)
11 – Goslin
9 – Wilhelm
8 – Brown, Winfield
7 – Tiant
6 – Ashburn, Lyons, Reuschel
======================10% (6)
5 – Evans
1 – Grimes, Roush
If I’ve counted correctly, Killebrew was elected on his 50th try. His raw total of 17 votes is the lowest yet for a CoG inductee, and I believe his vote percentage (33%) is, too, or close to it. Meanwhile, a total of 6 players cracked the 25% line, while Dwight Evans fell off the ballot again.
Kudos for Killer.
Talk about a finishing kick!
I may have voted for Killebrew a time or two early on in his candidacy but had since become convinced that he falls just short.
That said:
1) even tho I thought he fell short of belonging it wasn’t by much and it’s possible that in time I will come to see it differently. And of the 2 first basemen among the leaders I think he was the better choice of the 2.
2) he was an integral part of my childhood listening to Halsey Hall & Herb Carneal broadcast Twins games in the 60’s
3) he’s a legendarily nice guy a that should count for something
4) he was going to get in no matter what. No one has ever accumulated that many rounds of extra eligibility and not gotten in. So if was going to happen now is as good a time as any.
I’m actually kind of relieved that he got it because it means that the 10 or 12 votes that were cast for him on virtually every ballot for the past 50+ elections are suddenly going to be freed up to go elsewhere and that just might shake things up a bit around here. Sometimes who a persons 4th choice is can surprise you.
I’ll have to see if I can find a can of Killebrew Root Beer someplace to drink in his honor.
Agree 100%, Hartvig. I think you nailed it completely (well, except that I didn’t grow up listening to Hall & Carneal). It will be interesting to see where his votes are allocated in the subsequent rounds. Plus, with Dewey falling off the ballot, and with the same voter turnout next round and no obvious candidate from the new class, that makes 23 free votes available (Killebrew’s 17 + Dewey’s 4 + Roush’s and Grimes’ 1 each).
I kind of liked having Killer always be there to vote for in elections there wasn’t an overwhelming choice. He went out with 10 eligible rounds leftover. Maybe he can pass those chips along to Dewey?
Are we going to have a vote at the end of the COG where we vote one or two players OUT ?
I think there was a general concensus of wrapping the circle around in some fashion. That means voting on who would be the first guy OUT of the circle and who would be the next guy IN the circle. That said, I’m not sure there was any consensus on actually changing the COG roster when we identified who those two people were.
I bet our most recent member, Killebrew, gets quite a few votes if we do go through that process.
What’s the famous Henry James story where the narrator wonders if his friend, or whomever, is in love by asking him: “Well is it overwhelming?” The guy (or whomever) says he isn’t sure and the narrator says: “Then it isn’t love.” That’s kind of Killer in these ballots, always around for the engagement but never the overwhelming pick.
Voting 1 or 2 out I’m guessing would create quite a bit of discussion.
One last note: Killebrew is the first from his birth year (1936) to be elected.