This post is for voting and discussion in the 97th round of balloting for the Circle of Greats (COG). This round adds to the list of candidates eligible to receive your votes those players born in 1894. Rules and lists are after the jump.
The new group of 1894-born players, in order to join the eligible list, must, as usual, have played at least 10 seasons in the major leagues or generated at least 20 Wins Above Replacement (“WAR”, as calculated by baseball-reference.com, and for this purpose meaning 20 total WAR for everyday players and 20 pitching WAR for pitchers). This new group of 1894-born candidates joins the eligible holdovers from previous rounds to comprise the full list of players eligible to appear on your ballots.
Each submitted ballot, if it is to be counted, must include three and only three eligible players. As always, the one player who appears on the most ballots cast in the round is inducted into the Circle of Greats. Players who fail to win induction but appear on half or more of the ballots that are cast win four added future rounds of ballot eligibility. Players who appear on 25% or more of the ballots cast, but less than 50%, earn two added future rounds of ballot eligibility. Any other player in the top 9 (including ties) in ballot appearances, or who appears on at least 10% of the ballots, wins one additional round of ballot eligibility.
All voting for this round closes at 11:59 PM EDT Thursday, June 18th, while changes to previously cast ballots are allowed until 11:59 PM EDT Tuesday, June 16th.
If you’d like to follow the vote tally, and/or check to make sure I’ve recorded your vote correctly, you can see my ballot-counting spreadsheet for this round here: COG 1894 Vote Tally. I’ll be updating the spreadsheet periodically with the latest votes. Initially, there is a row in the spreadsheet for every voter who has cast a ballot in any of the past rounds, but new voters are entirely welcome — new voters will be added to the spreadsheet as their ballots are submitted. Also initially, there is a column for each of the holdover candidates; additional player columns from the new born-in-1894 group will be added to the spreadsheet as votes are cast for them.
Choose your three players from the lists below of eligible players. The fourteen current holdovers are listed in order of the number of future rounds (including this one) through which they are assured eligibility, and alphabetically when the future eligibility number is the same. The 1894 birth-year players are listed below in order of the number of seasons each played in the majors, and alphabetically among players with the same number of seasons played.
Holdovers:
Harmon Killebrew (eligibility guaranteed for 9 rounds)
Roy Campanella (eligibility guaranteed for 3 rounds)
Goose Goslin (eligibility guaranteed for 2 rounds)
Hoyt Wilhelm (eligibility guaranteed for 2 rounds)
Richie Ashburn (eligibility guaranteed for this round only)
Kevin Brown (eligibility guaranteed for this round only)
Dennis Eckersley (eligibility guaranteed for this round only)
Dwight Evans (eligibility guaranteed for this round only)
Gabby Hartnett (eligibility guaranteed for this round only)
Ted Lyons (eligibility guaranteed for this round only)
Graig Nettles (eligibility guaranteed for this round only)
Rick Reuschel (eligibility guaranteed for this round only)
Luis Tiant (eligibility guaranteed for this round only)
Dave Winfield (eligibility guaranteed for this round only)
Everyday Players (born in 1894, ten or more seasons played in the major leagues or at least 20 WAR):
Joe Judge
Rube Bressler
Harry Heilmann
Bing Miller
Frank Snyder
Sparky Adams
Bill Wambsganss
Hank DeBerry
Butch Henline
Larry Woodall
Pitchers (born in 1894, ten or more seasons played in the major leagues or at least 20 WAR):
Herb Pennock
Howard Ehmke
Lee Meadows
Ray Kolp
Al Mamaux
Most Wins Above Average, excluding negative seasonal totals:
Brown 43.3
Reuschel 40.6
Heilmann 40.3
Tiant 37.5
Lyons 36.7
Nettles 35.7
Evans 34.9
Eckersley 34.3
Ashburn 33.9
Killebrew 33.0
Goslin 31.7
Winfield 31.1
Hartnett 30.3
Wilhelm 28.7
Pennock 21.3
Campanella 19.2
Brown, Eckersley, Campanella
I see Heilmann benefitting from the new-guy bonus and sailing in here. He’s probably deserving, but I think we’re more capable of comparing him objectively to the other candidates if he waits a round.
In retrospect, it would have been nice if everybody had to “wait a round”, regardless of their support.
This project is as much about the discussion as it is about the votes. And we’ve spent no more than a week talking about Ruth, Mays, and all the other greats. Whereas we’ve been pondering and commenting on Kevin Brown for about 120 weeks.
I see your point, Voomo. However… what is there to be said about Ruth or Mays that hasn’t been said? I really don’t think there’s any “discussion” to be had. It’s the Kevin Browns and Whitey Fords and Eddie Murrays and Roberto Alomars of the world that are WORTH discussing. We all know that Hank Aaron and Ted Williams were great; what’s the point in discussing them? We all know that Dwight Evans was unappreciated in his time – but just how great WAS he? How do Richie Ashburn and Kenny Lofton compare? Those are questions worth exploring – “how great was Babe Ruth?” just isn’t as interesting to most of us.
Just look at the comments in the last round. Ruth was named by every voter but Brendan Bingham (since jajacob originally had him on his ballot twice, then decided not to vote for him at all). Yet hardly anyone had word one to say about his career. It’s just not that interesting.
And my vote was purely strategic, not an expression that Ruth is less than COGworthy.
Whitey Ford, Eddie Murray and Roberto Alomar are HOFers. I’ll leave it at that. : -)
Easy choice for me – most rounds these days, I go with the “overqualified-new-guy-and-my-two-stand-bys” ballot, and so it shall be today, as well:
Harry Heilmann
Kevin Brown
Luis Tiant
I haven’t stumped for Kevin Brown in a while, so I’m going to do so this round.
While I personally have Harry Heilmann as the #1 player this round, I can see the argument for Kevin Brown (especially if you take level of competition into it at all), and I really wouldn’t mind seeing it happen. Here’s the thing. I understand the weaknesses and why people might shy away from Kevin Brown votes. First, there’s the Mitchell Report – I understand that that’s a deal-breaker for some people. I can’t change your mind about that, so I won’t try. I acknowledge it, and note that it can make comparisons difficult, but if you’re willing to put that aside for a moment, please give some thought to any other objections you might have, and see if I can persuade you away from them; then perhaps you’ll reconsider.
Number two, I know about the postseason struggles he had. But I think that’s worth addressing. Yes, in Florida, they won a World Series in spite of him. He pitched quite well against the Giants in the NLDS. He won both his games against the Braves – but pitched badly. It wouldn’t be unfair to say that, in those 5 starts in 1997, he basically had four bad ones. I concede that.
However, in 1998, he pitched great. One run in 14+ innings against the 102-win Astros; complete game, three-hit shutout against the Braves, followed by a disastrous relief outing (1 1/3 IP, 3 R). In the World Series, against the greatest baseball team (and offense) I’ve ever seen, the 1998 Yankees, Brown started Game 1 IN Yankee Stadium, and held them to 2 R on 6 IP. He picked up a ND, because the bullpen allowed SEVEN runs in the seventh. In Game 4, he started again, and pitched seven innings of one-run ball. Unfortunately, he got left in an inning too long, and allowed two more in the eighth. Most unfortunately of all, the Padres offense (as it did all season) generated nothing, and they were sent packing. Those were, in all honesty, two EXCELLENT starts. Looking beyond that year, he had one great start for the Yankees, and two complete disasters; but by that point in his career, he was definitely beyond his prime.
Overall, he had a 4.19 ERA in 14 games (13 starts) – not great, but not bad in arguably the greatest offensive era in baseball history. Looking at the 1997 and 1998 playoffs as a starter, he had a 3.29 ERA against teams with a combined winning percentage of .616 – an AVERAGE of a 100-win team (99.93, really, but it would’ve been 100 if Cleveland had played and one a 162nd game in 1997). That’s RIDICULOUS competition, and a 3.29 ERA is good enough for me.
A third objection you hear about Brown sometimes (not on this site, that I can recall, but perhaps it’s in the backs of some people’s minds) is that he never lived up to that contract in LA. First $100-million man, as you probably recall.
Finally, the objection you get about Kevin Brown is basically that he was never the best starter in the game. That might be true. His prime overlaps more or less perfectly with the waning of Maddux’s prime, the beginning of Pedro and the Unit’s emergence as dominant, the resurgence of Roger Clemens, and the steady excellence of Smoltz and Glavine (who weren’t as good as Brown, but had better press). Here’s the thing though – is that enough to keep him out? I cry foul on that, because the EXACT SAME THING could be said of Curt Schilling. Schilling was also never as good as Johnson, Martinez, Maddux, or Clemens, but we let HIM into the COG. As a bonus, who’s Curt Schilling’s number one comp on baseball-reference? You guessed it – Kevin Brown, with a 920 similarity score. Curt Schilling’s five year peak, from 2000-2004, was 36.5 WAR; Kevin Brown’s, from 1996-2000, was 36.9. Brown was certainly a lesser pitcher over the course of a whole career, but at their best, they were remarkably similar. Brown’s home parks and era obscure his greatness more than Schilling’s, but at his peak, Brown compares favorably with any pitcher, INCLUDING Johnson/Martinez/Maddux/Clemens – and since when are THEY they standard, even for the COG? In his 5-year peak, in the NL from 1996-2000 (home of, for at least PART of the time, Randy Johnson and Pedro Martinez, as well as Curt Schilling, Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine, and John Smoltz the WHOLE time), Brown finished 1st, 3rd, 1st, 3rd, and 2nd in pitcher WAR in the NL. The dude could straight-up PITCH.
The numbers are there, the objections are, in my opinion, insignificant to his greatness, and he’s been on the ballot long enough. Even if Brown can’t break through THIS round, consider him for the #3 spot on a future ballot – he’s a worthwhile cause, compares favorably with players already inducted, and is remembered by those of us who came of age in the late-90s as one of the best pitchers in the game at the time. Thanks for indulging a candidate I’m almost certain I’ve spent 80+ votes on throughout this process.
Doom – I would argue that there’s another concern re: Brown.
Extreme road-home split.
His ERA was 2.74 at home, 3.86 on the road.
I get that some people feel that WAR adequately addresses that sort of split but there’s hardly a unanimous consensus on the issue.
Per your #18 about discussing candidates, I wonder why this issue doesn’t get discussed re: Brown. It can’t be from lack of interest…it was certainly discussed with Koufax and Walker. I assume it must be because people aren’t aware of Brown’s extreme split.
How extreme is it? Of the 325 pitchers with 2,000+ IP, Brown has the 12th greatest home/road split. Koufax, by the way, only comes in 110th.
2.74 3.86
I wasn’t aware that the home-road disparity was that big, either, so it wouldn’t surprise me that others didn’t know. I DO recall, though, that some of his good years in Texas were obscured by a hitter’s park, and any success he had in LA was always attributed to Dodger Stadium, rather than to any skill of his own (mostly, as I recall, by bitter Dodger fans who didn’t believe he was living up to his big, fat contract).
In his defense, though, I will say a couple of things.
First, while the difference in his home and road ERAs is more than one run, it was at a time when runs were plentiful. If you look at his road ERA as a percentage, he gave up 1.4 times as many runs on the road as he did at home. That’s a lot. Koufax (1.22) was not as bad. However, I will say that I believe that more to be a function of his OUTSTANDING pitching at home, rather than his road pitching. In his three best years, his home/road differential was one run each year – not one run of ERA; one run over the course of the entire year! It’s the Dodger stadium numbers, when he starts giving up twice as many runs on the road as at home, when he starts getting weird. But even then, his road ERAs (3.94, 3.38, 2.91, 5.40, and 2.38) aren’t bad (and are in fact quite GOOD) when you compare them to what the LEAGUE ERAs were those years (4.56, 4.63, 4.36, 4.11, 4.28). Yes, his road ERAs were not as good as his home ones, but I think that’s mitigated by better-than-good pitching at home, and actually good road pitching as well, though it’s obscured by his era.
Another point to consider is this: while his ERAs may have been less-than-ideal on the road compared to at home, his OPS+ numbers were within normal ranges. tOPS+ measures how much better at player did compared to HIS average, at various splits. Brown was 90/110 home and road. That is, he gave up 10% fewer runs at home, and 10% more on the road. Koufax: 93/107. Drysdale (90/111), Guidry (89/112), Walter Johnson (90/111), Roger Clemens (97/104), Randy Johnson (95/106), Greg Maddux (96/105), Steve Carlton (94/106), Warren Spahn (89/111), Nolan Ryan (88/115!!!!). We can’t all be Bob Gibson (better on the road) or Toms Glavine (100/99) and Seaver (101/99). Some guys are better at home. Some marginally so, like Maddux, Clemens, and Randy Johnson.
My guess, after looking into this, is that, since Kevin Brown’s OPS splits are right in line with what’s normal for pitchers of his level of success (Walter Johnson, Nolan Ryan, and Don Drysdale are good company, I would say), my conclusion is that he was likely a bit sequencing-lucky at home, and a bit sequencing-unlucky on the road. I don’t think that’s worth keeping him out of the COG for.
Appreciate the reply Doom. A bit of pushback. 🙂
Let’s look at the full picture of tOPS+.
I did a search of pitchers with 2,300+ IP (wanted to include Koufax plus get fewer than 300 results).
That returns 237 pitchers. Pitchers with a 90 home tOPS+ (like Brown) are between 15th to 25th on that list of 237 pitchers.
So even using something like tOPS+, Brown comes in as an outlier. Sure there are some pitchers with a similar tOPS+, but most have a higher number than Brown.
Beyond that, I don’t see the pitchers you listed as good comps for Brown. They’re either slam-dunks or guys who have been rejected by the COG voters. Would be better to see “tweeners” – guys between 60-70 WAR.
Anyway, I continue to see Brown as a marginal candidate. Just too many “issues” to elect him at this point, when there are lots of comparable pitchers on the ballot.
Thanks for yet another well-thought-out reply. I know I’m not going to convince many voters, because many people have things against Kevin Brown. What I will say is this: yes, even be tOPS+, Brown is an outlier… but so are a LOT of great pitchers. Pitching outstandingly at home will do that to a guy.
As for why I chose the guys I did, they were from Koufax’s comp list (Guidry and Drysdale) or just the greatest pitchers of all-time, simply because I was curious. I wasn’t trying to “prove” anything necessarily, other than the fact that many great pitchers are disproportionately better at home, and so that single objection doesn’t bother me. In fact, as I pointed out in my other post, NONE of the other objections bother me.
If Brown were a 55-60 WAR guy, I would totally be with you regarding the objections. The thing is, the objections are all easy enough to explain away, and 68 WAR isn’t easy to explain away. So I’ll keep voting for him. And since no one’s made a case for one of the long-time holdovers in a while, I thought it would be fun to break things up and do so!
Fair enough Doom. But let me ask you this? Why Brown and not Tiant or Reuschel?
They both have a similar amount of WAR/WAA as Brown without any of the negatives (at least that I’m aware of)?
I realize that you did vote for Tiant but didn’t try to build a case for him. And Reuschel has over 70 WAR if you include his hitting WAR.
I’m just having a hard time seeing a compelling case for Brown over those two.
Short answer: I picked Brown for two reasons. First because, at the time, he was winning, and so I thought it would be appropriate to write about him. Second, he’s been on the ballot longer, and I don’t think we’ve discussed his merits in a LONG time. Those of us who vote for him do so by rote, and those who don’t do so uncritically. I think it’s worth some of us restating our cases for our longtime “causes.” In fact, I would LOVE to see some more people pick a player from their ballot in the next round or two and try to tell the rest of us why we should vote for him.
I didn’t write about Tiant because I had to pick one and only one – imagine if I’d written that many words about him, too! And the reason I didn’t pick Reuschel (and haven’t voted for him, either) is that I tend to like a guy with a good peak. Reuschel was just too consistent. Top season? Outstanding. But if you’re comparing seasons with Tiant head-to-head, while Reuschel has the best, Tiant has the next FOUR. Then one for Reuschel, then you’re in the 5-6 WAR territory. But that argument’s for a different time! I have no problem with either; it’s just that I’d take Brown first of the three.
Finally, if I’m allowed a “cheat” of a reason, it’s that Kevin Brown is an actual ballplayer to me. I’m 28, and Luis Tiant and Rick Reuschel are numbers on baseball-reference.com and stories read in books. Kevin Brown was a real-life baseball player, so I thought it would make sense to write about someone I saw at the time, and whose story is a part of me, rather than someone about whom I can only speak in retrospect.
Thanks for the well-thought out response Doom!
Honestly, I think the reason most people aren’t writing these sort of support pieces is because there’s no strong feeling for one candidate over another at this point.
I voted for Lyons because I think he’d have 75-8 WAR without WWII. I think someone like that deserves to stay on the ballot, even if I’m not convinced he belongs in the COG.
I voted for Tiant because I think he’s been unfairly viewed by history and everything says that he was an amazing person, beloved by fans and teammates alike.
I voted for Nettles because…well, I don’t know. He has 68 career WAR, twice led the league in WAR and made some of the greatest defensive plays I’ve ever seen in the `78 World Series.
But again, I can’t say that these three deserve election over the other players on the ballot. Just really hard to differentiate at this point, particularly now that we have players spread throughout baseball history.
This round’s tidbits. Answers in red
1. Herb Pennock is one of six live ball era pitchers to record 200 IP with 15 wins and a 105 ERA+ each season aged 29-34. Which pitcher did this most recently? Roy Halladay
2. Joe Judge’s 47 career WAR leads all Senators/Twins first basemen. Who is the only first baseman since 1901 with fewer career HR than Judge’s total of 71, while collecting 2000 hits and 1000 RBI? Stuffy McInnis
3. Rube Bressler started his career with 9-inning complete games in his first 3 starts. Who are the other 3 teenage pitchers since 1914 with CGs in their first 3 starts? Frank Shellenback, Hal Newhouser, Joe Coleman Jr.
4. Harry Heilmann is the only player aged 28-33 with 1200 hits including 250 doubles. Which two players most recently recorded 1000 hits and 250 doubles over that age period? Todd Helton, Bobby Abreu
5. Bing Miller is the only player to record 20 doubles, 60 RBI and no more than 90 runs scored in each of his first 11 seasons. For his career, Miller recorded 389 doubles, more than both his walks and strikeouts. Who is the only player since to duplicate that career feat with a higher doubles total than Miller’s? Bill Buckner
6. Frank Snyder recorded 100 fewer runs than hits in the 1915 season. Who is the only other Cardinal catcher to match that feat in a qualified season? Ted Simmons
7. Lee Meadows’ 1919 season included double-digit loss totals for both the Cardinals and Phillies. Who is the other pitcher since 1901 with 10+ losses for two teams in the same season? Tom Hughes
8. Howard Ehmke was the surprise opening game starter in the 1929 World Series. Pitching on 25 days rest, the 35 year-old Ehmke fanned 13 Cubs, the most strikeouts in a pitcher’s first career World Series start. Who is the oldest pitcher with double-digit Ks in his first World Series start? Randy Johnson
9. Sparky Adams recorded 6 seasons with 90 runs scored and OPS+ below 100. Who is the only expansion era player to match that feat? Juan Pierre
10. Bill Wambsganss famously retired 3 Dodgers unassisted in the 1920 World Series. That same season, Wambsganss stole 9 bases, the most by an AL player thrown out on two-thirds of his steal attempts. Who is the last AL player with a season of 20+ steal attempts and a lower stolen base success rate than Wambsganss’ 33.3%? Buddy Bell (1973)
11. Ray Kolp’s .454 career W-L% is the lowest among 10 pitchers with a winning record in 50+ decisions for the Browns. Who is the only one of those 10 pitchers with more career IP in the NL than Kolp? Bill Dinneen
12. Al Mamaux posted a 21-15 record in 1916 while leading the NL with 136 walks. Who is the only NL pitcher since with more walks allowed in a 20-win season? J.R. Richard
13. Butch Henline batted .304 playing for the Phillies. Who is the only Phillies catcher with a higher BA in 500+ games? Spud Davis
14. Hank DeBerry ended his career with 9 straight seasons of at least 100 PA, but never 300 or more. Who are the other two catchers to end their careers the same way? Jeff Torborg, Buck Martinez
15. Larry Woodall’s .268 career BA leads all catchers with 500 games playing only for Detroit. In 1927, at age 32, Woodall stole 9 bases and was caught only once. Who is the only older catcher with a better success rate in 10+ steal attempts? Ivan Rodriguez
1. Herb Pennock – Well, I’m not sure he’s the most recent, but Roy Halladay did that from 2006-2011.
Halladay is the answer.
4. Harry Heilmann – Bobby Abreu and Todd Helton, who both did it from 2002-2007.
6. Frank Snyder – Unless you mean “exactly 100 runs less” then Ted Simmons did this multiple times (1972, 1973, and 1975), peaking at a difference of 130 in 1973 (he had a differential of 97 in 1974).
12. Al Marnaux – I thought this was ridiculously easy (some guy named Ryan) until I read the NL qualifier. However, J.R. Richard walked 151 for the Astros in 1976 while winning 20 games.
I believe the answer to the Joe Judge question is Stuffy McInnis.
7. Lee Meadows – Tom Hughes in 1904 – 11 losses with the Yanks, then 12 with the Senators. Yikes.
9. Sparky Adams – the immortal Juan Pierre.
2001, 2002, 2003, 2005, 2007, 2010
All correct answers.
14. Hank DeBerry: Jeff Torborg and Buck Martinez
Bing Miller question–Nap Lajoie?
3. Rube Bressler: Hal Newhouser and Joe Coleman Jr.
Good one, Richard. Somehow I missed Coleman. He matched Bressler’s achievement of starting his career with three 9-inning CGs as a teenager.
But, there is another teenager like Newhouser who started his career with CGs in his first 3 starts (for him, it was his first 4 starts), all of them regulation games of 9+ innings, but not all with 9 IP (between those starts, he also mixed in a couple of lengthy relief outings, of 8 and 10 innings).
Is it Frank Shellenback?
Shellenback is the one. He turned in a credible rookie season in 1918 (182 IP, 103 ERA+), then was roughed up in sparse use the next season (looks like he was called up and sent down a few times that year). But, that was it for his major league career.
Pitched in the minors until age 39, posting a 300-179 record in over 4000 IP with a 3.59 ERA that would have been a superb result pitching in the majors in the ’20s and ’30s. Most of those seasons were spent with Hollywood and San Diego in the PCL, so maybe Shellenback didn’t want to go back to the majors!
#5 Bing Miller question is everyone’s favorite World Series goat, Bill Buckner.
The very one.
Buckner also takes the booby prize for lowest WAR in a 10,000 PA career. His 14.8 career WAR is less than half of the second worst total of 38.5 by Harold Baines.
Howard Ehmke question: I will take a stab and say the 37 year old Randy Johnson in 2001.
Good stab!
Butch Henline question–Spud Davis?
Larry Woodall question–is it Pudge Rodriguez?
Pudge is the answer. Rodriguez was successful in 10 of 11 steal attempts in his age 36 season with the Tigers and Yankees (New York snagged I-Rod just before the trade deadline after Posada sustained a season-ending injury in late July of 2008).
#11 — Jack Powell?
Nope.
Powell had a losing record (117-143) with the Browns.
How about Bill Dinneen?
That’s our man.
Dinneen was the star of the first World Series for the victorious Boston Americans, with 4 CG including two shutouts, one in the clinching game.
Would #10 (Bill Wambsganss) happen to be Buddy Bell in 1972?
Indeed it would, except it was the 1973 season with 7 thefts in 22 attempts for a .318 success rate.
And of course right you are, it was 1973.
Bill James once mentioned something about how the Indians had a bit of a mania for utilizing the hit-and-run far, far more often than most back in those days and how that at least contributed to Buddy’s abysmal career stolen base success rate (55/134 or 41%). That was what made me think of him.
Seems plausible to me.
Harry Heilmann, Kevin Brown, Goose Goslin
Heilmann, Goslin, Hartnett
Heilmann, Brown, Goslin
Chris Heston threw a no-hitter for SF last night.
With 3 HBP.
Has any pitcher ever hit 3 batters without giving up a base hit?
The Play Index at b-r says no.
Two batters is the tops.
This gem by Steve Barber (with 10 walks!):
http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/BAL/BAL196704301.shtml
____
Bo Belinsky on May 5th, 1962
Virgil Trucks, May 15th,1952
________________
The Play Index is wrong, though.
Because the reason I looked it up is that I remembered this game:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/PIT/PIT197405010.shtml
Voomo – the play index shows 4 games with 3 HBP and 0 hits.
The Heston game from last night, the Dock Ellis game you mention, and two games from 1914:
Rube Benton:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/CIN/CIN191409100.shtml
Ted Welch:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/BRF/BRF191405150.shtml
Yup, it’s working for me now, too.
When I ran it last night it would only display complete games, no matter what IP i chose.
Bill Wambsganss batted .352 in his final season.
In 66 PA.
What is the highest BA in a final season?
Minimum 60 PA:
.389 / 96 … Timo Perez
.385 / 70 … Dave Rowan (1911)
.382 / 649 .. Joe Jackson
.377 / 187 .. Babe Twombley
Perez was a Dominican who started his career in Japan.
And had plenty left in the tank after his .389 in 2007:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/perezti01.shtml
Ashburn Reuschel Dwight Evans
Rube Bressler’s rookie season netted him 3.7 Pitching WAR.
Arm injury ended that career at age 25, and he went on to be an effective position player, with a .301 career average.
He had two seasons of 3.0 WAR as an offensive player.
Who else did that?
Just looking at the top 15 guys in Games Pitched on this list:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/friv/fieldPitch.shtml
here is an unofficial list of who else had seasons of 3+ WAR both as a hitter and a Pitcher:
John Ward
Mike Smith (ahhh, the 1880s)
Cy Seymour
Bobby Wallace
G.H. Ruth
Johnny Cooney comes close, topping out at 2.8 on offense.
Rick Ankiel topped out at 2.0
Smokey Joe Wood, who was even a better pitcher than the Babe, managed oWAR seasons of 2.2, 2.3 & 2.4. George Sisler topped out at 1.3 & 1.0 WAR as a pitchers but those totals were in a mere 70 & 27(!) innings pitched.
Killebrew, Winfield, and Harry Heilmann
Anyone know the backstory on Heilmann’s breakthrough in 1921?
Through 1920, he had a career OPS+ of 121; the rest of his career it was 158. Similarly, through 1925 he never had an Rbat above 25. He then reeled of off 10 straight seasons above that level, including 4 above 50.
The end of the dead ball era can explain his jump in counting stats but can’t (I don’t think) explain the jump in advanced stats.
Where his skills just better suited to the live ball era? Or perhaps something else?
He received batting instructions from Ty Cobb starting in 1921.
Are you sure Richard? Heilmann’s SABR bio says that Cobb was pissed that Heilmann beat him out for the 1921 batting crown and refused to talk with him again. Which makes me think he wouldn’t be very inclined to give him batting instruction.
Heilmann’s SABR bio also says that Cobb tutored him early in the 1921 season. Evidently Cobb was an excellent tutor.
Excellent commentary on their relationship here:
https://books.google.com/books?id=UJVas2JMjLUC&pg=PA46&lpg=PA46&dq=Heilmann+cobb&source=bl&ots=MuKvXZXG9J&sig=KTmHTM3L6oIXa4UhyOcRahGETFQ&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0CC0Q6AEwAmoVChMI7ICxp8SGxgIVES2ICh2Baw8v#v=onepage&q=Heilmann%20cobb&f=false
Harry Heilmann’s peak years, 1921-1927.
Here’s how he ranked during those years:
R………..4th
H………..2nd behind only Hornsby
2B……….3rd
3B……….7th
HR……….8th
RBI………2nd behind only Ruth
BB……….7th
BA……….2nd behind only Hornsby
OBP, SLG, OPS, OPS+, WAR….3rd behind only Ruth and Hornsby.
I also checked rolling 5-year batting averages from 1921 to 1930. For those 6 periods Hornsby was on top 5 times and Heilmann was the one to break the string.
Heilmann was 1 of 2 players to bat .393 or higher 4 times in his career and 1 of a handful to bat over .400. He was also the first player to hit a HR in every park in the ML. (He played for the Reds for a couple of years.) Arthritis shortened his playing career.
My vote: Heilmann, Goslin, Hartnett
I imagine the “new kid on the block” will win. So I’ll go with Lyons, Nettles, and Tiant.
Heilmann, Goslin, Ashburn
Harry Heilmann
Goose Goslin
Graig Nettles
Winfield, Heilmann, Pennock
Harry Heilmann
Goose Goslin
Campy
Reuschel, Hartnett, Heilmann.
Killebrew, Eckersley, and Wilhelm
Heilmann, Kevin Brown, Nettles
Nettles, Winfield, Heilmann.
Killebrew, Reuschel and Heilmann
Early voting returns, with 18 precincts reporting:
14 – Harry Heilmann
=====================75% (15)
=====================50% (9)
7 – Goose Goslin
5 – Kevin Brown
=====================25% (5)
4 – Graig Nettles
3 – Gabby Hartnett, Harmon Killebrew, Rick Reuschel, Dave Winfield
2 – Richie Ashburn, Roy Campanella, Dennis Eckersley, Luis Tiant
1 – Dwight Evans, Ted Lyons, Herb Pennock, Hoyt Wilhelm
Vote:
Dennis Eckersley
Ted Lyons
Hoyt Wilhelm
Dr. Doom convinced me, this will be my first ballot with Kevin Brown.
So, Heilmann, Goslin, Brown
Campanella, Hartnett, Lyons
Heilmann, Kevin Brown, Nettles
Heilmann, Goslin, Hartnett.
Harry Heilmann, Rick Reuschel, Kevin Brown
Harry Heilmann – Richie Ashburn – Rick Reuschel
Killebrew, Brown, Ashburn
Killebrew
Wilhelm
Lyons
Sunday AM, 27-ballot (oneblankspace @80) update, comin’ atcha:
19 – Harry Heilmann
====================50% (14)
9 – Kevin Brown, Goose Goslin*
====================25% (7)
5 – Gabby Hartnett, Harmon Killebrew*, Graig Nettles, Rick Reuschel
4 – Richie Ashburn, Ted Lyons
3 – Roy Campanella*, Dennis Eckersley, Hoyt Wilhelm*, Dave Winfield
====================10% (3)
2 – Luis Tiant
1 – Dwight Evans, Herb Pennock
(* = not on bubble)
Brown
Reuschel
Killebrew
Luis Tiant, Richie Ashburn, Dwight Evans
I think there’s potential for a good discussion in comparing Heilmann and Goslin. Heilmann was the better hitter after Cobb took him under his tutelage, however briefly, but the Goose was far better in the field—which probably only shows how truly awful Heilmann was—and on the bases, scored and drove in more runs, was an important part of five championship teams, and in spite of playing the majority of his career in HR-killing Griffith Stadium, retired with 248 homers to his credit. He also did some major damage in those five world series, seven HRs, 19 RBIs, 16 runs, and in his last post-season AB he drove in the game and series winning run in the bottom of the ninth inning.
Any comments?
Of Goslin’s 248 HR 156 were on the road and 92 were at home. That road-home differential of 64 is second only to Joe DiMaggio’s 65.
It’s really worse than that. Only 38 of his HRs came at Griffith, so the balance of the 92 were hit in St. Louis and Detroit, more or less. He might have hit a couple at Griffith as a visitor.
He hit 31 at Griffith as a Senator, 5 as a Tiger and 2 as a Brown.
I don’t think there is that much between them, no. I’m not convinced Heilmann is a shoe-in like he’s getting voted and I have Goslin below the line. If you really think guys like Eckersly, Nettles, Killebrew, etc belong than guys like Heilmann are the ones you’re going to have to leave OFF. That doesn’t seem to be the case so I have to think we’re now looking at a holdover list where more than half won’t make it.
I see Heilmann as being slightly above the line & Goose as just below it. But I also think that there are at least 2 better qualified holdovers than Heilmann and a couple more that are roughly equal.
That does seem to be one “flaw” in our voting system- new guys seem to get support somewhat out of proportion to their relative talent, especially if they’re obviously the only qualified candidate among the newcomers.
The real difficulty on the horizon that the Tiger fan in me sees on the horizon is going to be Sam Crawford.
Eckersley, Tiant, Lyons
Here’s a question for the PI masters. Is Joe Judge’s 46.9 career WAR the most for someone who never had a single season above 4.0 WAR?
There are 193 players with 46.9 WAR or higher. They all have 3 or more seasons with 4.0+ WAR except Judge who has only 1. So the answer to your question is yes.
Thanks Richard! I imagine this is impossible to search but I’m guessing that Judge’s 14 straight seasons with WAR between 2.2 and 4.0 is some sort of record. (i.e, most straight seasons with WAR within a range of +/- 2.0).
I have to explain a discrepancy. Joe Judge’s home page shows 2 seasons of 4.0 WAR but my PI run showed 1 season. For my PI run I used WAR => 4.0. I reran it using WAR => 3.95 and then 2 seasons showed up for Judge. By using WAR => 4.04, Judge again has one season. By using WAR => 4.05 Judge’s name did not come up so his maximum WAR is 4.04.
Hank Aaron had 14 straight seasons within a range of 2.6 WAR, which is a little larger, but MUCH more impressive because it was at a higher level: 6.8-9.4 WAR (1956-1969).
I agree if this is some kind of consistency stat then it shouldn’t punish guys who were just better. I would do it by percentage. A guy going form 0.1WAR to 0.2WAR has double his WAR output. Aaron is going to win a huge number of nyear consistency checks on WAR output if it’s percentage of the period’s average based.
@94, David: After the 2014 season ended I created a spreadsheet to calculate consecutive seasons of a any particular stat. Your question provided me with a chance to use it. I extracted data from Fangraphs because it was easier to extract seasonal WAR values for all MLers than from BR. Their range of WAR for Judge for that 14 consecutive season streak varied from 1.8 to 4.1. Accordingly I ran my analysis for that range. Judge’s streak showed up to be the record. Tied for second were Torii Hunter, Michael Young and Brian Downing with 9 consecutive years.
Just seeing this…Thanks Richard!
@120: You are welcome.
Harmon Killebrew, Hoyt Wilhelm, Dennis Eckersley
Harry Heilman, Gabby Hartnett, Dave Winfield
Brown, Tiant, Hartnett
Heilmann, Killebrew, Nettles
Wilhelm
Ashburn
K. Brown
Here’s another vote update, since it’s been 48 hours since my last. This is through brp’s vote @102, the 35th:
21 – Harry Heilmann
=====================50% (18)
12 – Kevin Brown
9 – Goose Goslin*
=====================25% (9)
8 – Harmon Killebrew*
7 – Gabby Hartnett
6 – Richie Ashburn, Graig Nettles, Rick Reuschel
5 – Dennis Eckersley, Ted Lyons, Luis Tiant, Hoyt Wilhelm
4 – Dave Winfield
=====================10% (4)
3 – Roy Campanella
2 – Dwight Evans
1 – Herb Pennock
(* = not on bubble)
Brown, Tiant, Wilhelm
Campanella, Hartnett, Winfield
Lyons, Eckersley, Wilhelm
Heilman Goslin Hartnett
Heilman, Killebrew, Campanella
Heilmann, Winfield, Nettles
Kilebrew, Winfield & Eckersley
Brown, Reuschel, Tiant
Heilmann, Killebrew, Winfield.
Evans, Brown, Tiant
Heilmann, Eckersley, Winfield
Final day of voting, and here’s what the standings look like so far, through The Diamond King’s vote @114, the 46th:
26 – Harry Heilmann
========================50% (23)
15 – Kevin Brown
========================25% (12)
11 – Harmon Killebrew*
10 – Goose Goslin*
9 – Gabby Hartnett, Dave Winfield
8 – Dennis Eckersley, Luis Tiant
7 – Graig Nettles, Rick Reuschel, Hoyt Wilhelm*
6 – Richie Ashburn, Ted Lyons
5 – Roy Campanella*
========================10% (5)
3 – Dwight Evans
1 – Herb Pennock
(* = not on bubble)
No love for Dewey.
17 other outfielders have had
2400 hits
1300 Walks
1400 Runs
125 ops+
In order of WAR:
Ruth
Bonds
Mays
Aaron
Speaker
Musial
Williams
Rickey
Mantle
Ott
F Robinson
Yaz
Griffey
Reggie
Manny
Dwight Evans
Sheffield
Abreu
We didn’t give Sheffield a reasonable look and he was certainly a better hitter than Dewey. Yeah, yeah, steroids, blah blah. Abreu either.
I have a minor league baseball buddy who is of the opinion roids go back well into the 60s and finds any use pre-2007 “business as usual”. Sheffield deserves more credit than he gets. I think a lot of old timers (ex: Goslin, Waner) wouldn’t have fared any better with the glove than he did. We’re just better about documenting his blame than we can be about pre-war guys.
I doubt it.
Yes steroids were around in the 60’s.
But the were widely associated with body builders and weight lifters.
When Sparky Anderson was hired as manager by the Tigers in mid-1979 he just about fainted when he saw Lance Parrish because the conventional wisdom then was too many muscles meant you couldn’t get around on the fastball.
There may have been a few guys that used them that far back- like maybe Parrish or Brian Dowling- but I’d bet it wasn’t very wide spread.
Since Heilmann’s election is certain by now, I’ll go all-strategic:
– Dwight Evans (probably hopeless, but maybe I can convince someone else to keep him on the COG ballot)
– Gabby Hartnett (again probably hopeless, but maybe I can convince several other voters to get him an extra round)
– Goose Goslin (see comment above)
I’m a big fan of Evans and think he belongs in the HOF but I just can’t find a way to fit him into the COG.
I would really like to see Hartnett pick up an additional round of cushion however and with Mosc’s vote at 117 that becomes a tiny bit more possible. But that also moves the target to 13 votes, meaning he’ll still have to be named on 2 of the next 4 to get there.
apparently I haven’t voted yet?
Campanella, Hartnett, Nettles
This is a test
Thursday, June 18th, 2015
4:07 pm Pacific Time
Heilmann, Goslin, Killer. I just can’t see myself ever voting for Brown–the PED’s thing gets to me, and I don’t feel he distinguishes himself so much that I feel regret.
For the 1894 election, I’m voting for:
-Dave Winfield
-Dwight Evans
-Harry Heilmann
Other top candidates I considered highly (and/or will consider in future rounds):
-Eckersley
-Killebrew
-Brown
-Tiant
-Nettles
-Lyons
-Goslin
-Ashburn
-Reuschel
Good to see Brown getting a bit of a groundswell. I’ll help a couple of the bubble guys as well: Brown, Hartnett, Evans.
Evans
Killebrew
Pennock