We all know the outcome of a playoff series is a random enough event that it’s pointless to spend 15+ hours building a model to predict the winners. So I spent 15+ hours last week building a model to predict the winners. It’s based on fangraphs’ Runs Above Replacement for pitchers and Runs Above Average for hitters, fielders, and baserunners. More after the jump.
Let’s start here. My best guess at each team’s postseason roster and the role each player will play:
[table id=256 /]
Of course, not every team will employ 12 pitchers and 13 position players in these exact roles. You may know something I don’t know, and I’m more than willing to update this table and the next few based on information you leave in the comments below.
Now, for the pitchers, let’s look at their Runs Above Average per inning pitched in 2015, per fangraphs. This includes games pitched for other teams, where applicable:
[table id=257 /]
These figures correspond to the same cells in the prior table, so you may have to maximize both tables to read them. The biggest number- that .308 in the closer row in the Yankees column- is Andrew Miller. His looks a lot like Kershaw’s .302 in the top right corner. The smallest number, half a run below replacement, represents Marco Gonzales. He may not be on the Cardinals’ postseason roster. As you’ll see below, it won’t make much difference.
On to the position players. Here are Fielding Runs Above Average (Def) per plate appearance for the players I expect to take the field at some point this month:
[table id=258 /]
As you may have ascertained, these figures include the positional adjustment, which is why most shortstops and catchers are positive, while most first basemen and corner outfielders are negative. I used PA as a baseline, rather than innings fielded, because the positional adjustment would make for some wonky numbers if a player was primarily a DH, but played a few innings in the field. The biggest numbers belong to Rangers utilityman Hanser Alberto (.055) and Cubs backup backstop David Ross (.046), who had just 104 and 182 PA, respectively. Among the regulars, Kevin Pillar ranks as the best fielder, having saved a quarter of a run every 10 PA. The worst scores are Chris Colabello’s -.056 and Pedro Alvarez’s -.044.
Let’s do the same for hitters, showing total hitting and baserunning Runs Above Average (Off) per plate appearance for the guys likely to bat:
[table id=259 /]
These lineups are all either actual lineups used at some point in the last week of the regular season or actual lineups tweaked to include a missing player or two. I gave all the NL teams a DH to put them on even footing with the AL teams. Obviously, these are more formidable lineups than we’ll see from NL teams before the World Series. The best hitter in the sample is Josh Donaldson at .069, with teammates Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion 2nd and 4th, respectively, at .057 and .055. The Cubs claim the other two in the top five: Anthony Rizzo at .056 and Kris Bryant at .050. At the other end, Hanser Alberto and St. Louis’s Pete Kozma each cost their teams 8 runs every hundred times they came to the plate this year.
The next step is to project how many innings each pitcher will pitch and how many plate appearances each player will get in the playoffs. We know that teams will lean on their top starters and best relievers to the greatest extent possible, and that players who hit at the top of the order will bat more than the guys at the bottom (by about 1/9 of a PA per lineup spot per game). Using some real data (for instance, starters averaged 5.8 IP per start this year, but the #1 starters on the ten playoff teams averaged 6.7) and some guesses (a best-of-five series has a 20% chance of ending in a sweep and a 30% chance of going the distance), I made these projections and multiplied them by a weighted expected number of innings in a series of each length (best-of-1, best-of-5, best-of-7). The only contribution for the player I deemed Pinch Runner was Baserunning Runs Above Average per game times an expected one opportunity per playoff game. I called the sum of the pitching, fielding, hitting, and baserunning scores Playoff Runs.
You may notice that the baseline for pitchers is replacement level, while the baseline for position players is average. This is because these are the run values Fangraphs makes available. For those with a full season of innings pitched or plate appearances, this doesn’t make much difference when aggregating scores, since everyone gets credit for the same ~2 wins between replacement level and average. For those with less playing time, really good or really bad hitters over small samples drive their teams’ Playoff Runs up or down more than pitchers. This effect is mitigated to some extent by my projections not giving more than seven plate appearances in any series to a player not in the designated starting nine.
Let’s start by looking at the four teams playing in the Wild Card games and observing how they stack up in a one-game projection:
[table id=260 /]
The Astros look better than the Yankees, not just because of Dallas Keuchel, but because of superior hitting and fielding. The Cubs are the best of the bunch, led by Jake Arrieta, but again besting their foes in all three categories.
Here’s what all the playoff teams look like over best-of-five or -seven series. For simplicity’s sake, I did not shuffle starters around based on which teams are forced to burn their aces in the playoff games. It rarely makes a difference in terms of which team looks better than their potential opponent.
[table id=261 /]
[table id=262 /]
So, using the Playoff Runs model, the Blue Jays, Royals, Mets, and Cubs reach the Championship Series and the Mets beat the Blue Jays for the title. The Mets may be a little overrated here based on small samples for Conforto and Wright, and no one knows whether their young starters have enough innings left in the tank to get through three more rounds, but on a rate basis, their 25-man roster had a better 2015 than any other playoff team’s. That may not give them a real edge against Kershaw and Greinke, but it’s worth knowing.
For a look at each projected series, with notes about flaws in the model and how they could impact each series, read the companion piece here.
Quick tidbit for the Astros-Yankees game today: Evan Gattis finished the regular season with 11 triples and zero stolen bases. Only seven other players have ever hit 11 or more three-baggers in a year and also never been accused of thievery; just two have 12 or more. Who are they? I don’t know; being without a Play Index subscription has its downsides.
COGer, HOFer Johnny Mize has the top two spots with 16 and 14 triples and no SB in back-to-back seasons (1938-1939).
Dale Long has the other season with more than 11 triples and no SB – 13 triples in 1955. He is the most recent player to accomplish this feat (other than now Gattis).
The other 5 players all did this between 1926-1940 (so everyone did this between 1926-1940 except Long and Gattis). Chronologically, Chuck Dressen (1926), Cliff Bolton (1935), Jim Bottomley (1936), Goody Rosen (1938), and Cecil Travis (1940).
This comment got me curious about the other end of the spectrum, guys with a lot of SB’s and no triples, so I did a bit of research on that (and other types of hits).
The most SB’s without a triple belongs to Miguel Dilone, with 50 steals and 0 triples in his 1978 season. Other seasons with 40+ steals and 0 triples: Mariano Duncan (48, 1986), Davey Lopes (47, 1985), Rickey Henderson (45, 1997) and Jose Canseco (40, 1988).
The most steals without a double also belongs to Miguel Dilone…sort-of. In 1985, he had 0 doubles and 17 steals, which is actually tied for 6th all-time. But most of the people ahead of him are on precarious footing for one reason or another. 4 of them were pinch-running specialists for the 1970’s A’s (Larry Lintz, Herb Washington, Matt Alexander and Don Hopkins). Dilone also did his share of pinch-running in 1985, but at least he was also a regular player at times, accruing 141 PA’s. The guy in first place is Herman Pitz, with 39 steals and 0 doubles. In fact, he also had 0 triples and 0 HR’s. But he only played one season, and that was in 1890. Given that 1890 was a year that had three competing “major” leagues (Pitz’s American Association, the National League and the fledgling Player’s League), it seems reasonable to conclude that Pitz was not truly a major league caliber player, and only got a chance to play because the addition of the Player’s League necessitated a lot more warm bodies. George Twombly might be the only guy with double-digit steals and 0 doubles that was never really used as a pinch-runner. He had 12 steals, 0 doubles and 5 triples in his 1914 season over 266 PA’s. 5 triples and 0 doubles is also a record.
The most steals without a HR belongs to Vince Coleman, with 107 in his 1986 season. But out man Dilone makes an appearance on this list as well, checking in at 17th all-time and 9th in the modern era with 61 steals in 1980.
Finally, as might be expected, the only people with double-digit steals and no singles are pinch-running specialists.
Well, you’ll have to pull Sabathia out of the table for the Yankees :/
Sympathy aside, I doubt putting Ivan Nova in there instead changes anything.
Quick Royals inside info: Infante is hurt and probably won’t play in the ALDS and frankly I think Yost would prefer Colon anyway since he can play 2nd, short and 3rd (and is a better hitter, to boot). The Royals 4th starter is up in the air, it may be Medlen or it may be Young. I think in the ALDS, when Game 4 would be in HR haven park (either Yankee Stadium or Minutemaid), he should be leaning to Medlen, as he is a ground ball pitcher and Young is a Fly ball pitcher. In the ALCS (if they make it), either way if they have their staff lined up again so that the #4 starter pitches on the road, there is no way he should start Young in either Toronto or Texas. If it isn’t lined up and the #4 is starting in KC, then I think he could start Young. In the WS, Young would be OK in any of the NL parks except Wrigley. (of course, were I Yost, if the ALDS is against the Bombers, I would start Duffy in Yankee Stadium, but that isn’t going to happen)
Oh and Dyson is in the Rangers column rather than the Royals.
Royals will not carry 12 pitchers. They will have 14 position players, the 5 backups will be Colon/Infante, Butera, Dyson and then two of these 3 (Orlando, Gomes, Gore)
Thanks, Brent. I read Rany’s piece today and agree that Medlen’s likely to get the 4th start if they need one. And I’m thrilled to hear Colon will be on the roster over Infante. Those changes are reflected above- the Royals pick up just over .2 runs in a best-of-seven.
I’m going to leave every team at 13/12 for symmetry. The last bench player or reliever doesn’t add much in terms of Playoff Runs anyway.
Sam Dyson is a Rangers reliever. A good one.
Thanks for this, Bryan. Nice piece of work.
As for “The Mets may be a little overrated here …”, I’m inclined to agree, if only because you have their offense 1.2 runs better than Toronto’s. Somehow I just can’t see that, given the Blue Jays’ 20 point edge in team OPS+ (118 to 98). To be sure, the Mets improved their offense significantly after the A-S break (while Toronto addressed its pitching and defense), but was it enough to overcome that big of an offensive gap?
The Mets gave 764 PA to Darrell Ciciliani, John Mayberry, Dilson Herrera, Kirk Niewenhuis, Eric Campbell, Johnny Monell, and Anthony recker, each of whom had a wRC+ of 95 or worse and won’t be aksed for meaningful contributions in October. Those PA will go to Cespedes, Wright, and Conforto, each of whom has a wRC+ of 133 or better while contributing fewer than 250 PA to that 98 OPS+.
Subjectively, I’d take the Blue Jays lineup too. They could get more out of Tulowitzki than the model suggests and won’t have to give PA to Josh Thole and Cliff Pennington. But this exercise has me convinced that the gap between those two offenses isn’t as big as I thought it was.
Well, here’s my epitaph for the season: “The Mets Are Better Than You Think, and the Yankees, If Possible, Are Even Worse.” After the first Houston run, you could hear taps blowing on the season. I suppose it could be uglier-a good friend is a Nationals fan, and that’s tough to match.
Maybe I need to take a break from baseball, and focus on emotionally stable things, like politics. Good luck to the rest of you who still have rooting interests.
This line above: “So, using the Playoff Runs model, the Blue Jays, Royals, Mets, and Cubs reach the Championship Series” was actually in error, since the model picked the Astros over the Royals by the slightest of margins. I’ll gladly take the credit though.
I got a lot of roles wrong- Colon, Lynn, and Fiers never started, for instance- but otherwise, things are playing out according to plan. It’s mostly just randomness aligning with some schlep and his spreadsheet, but it feels good to be right.
Pingback: Forecasting the 2016 Postseason |
Pingback: Playoff Rosters |