Crowdsourcing Cys Young

17 Replies

Yesterday, we began a conversation about this year’s MVPs.  The Cy Young Award races pack more drama this year, particularly in the NL, where the top four candidates had historic years and three of them are practically indistinguishable in their excellence.  Let’s vote for the best pitchers now.

List your top five candidates for Cy Young in either league or both in the comments, with or without commentary.  I’ll compile on Friday, 11/13, using the same 7-4-3-2-1 scoring system MLB uses.  Stats after the jump.  All are sortable.  Please don’t take the default sort as an endorsement.

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17 thoughts on “Crowdsourcing Cys Young”

  2. no statistician but

    The CY is less about being valuable in a larger sense than is the MVP, but looking at it from that perspective rather than stats, David Price seems a clear winner in the AL. When he left Detroit the Tigers were struggling and they subsequently went into the tank despite the return of Cabrera from the DL. When he arrived in Toronto the Jays were 2 games over .500, and his 9-1 record subsequently was the centerpiece of their runaway finish. Independent of that, of course, his stats put him on top.

    In the NL, using similar reasoning, it’s difficult to pick between Kershaw and Arrieta. There’s precedent for a tie in the voting.

    I’ll work up a ballot later.

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  3. Brent

    AL: Keuchel, Price, Sale, Archer, Gray
    NL: Greinke, Arrieta, Kershaw, Scherzer, Bumgarner

    With regard to the Cy Young, I never understood the tendency to act like the second half of the season’s games matter more than the first half. Greinke was the best for the WHOLE season, Arrieta was better for the last 10 weeks or so.

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  4. Dr. Doom

    Not much time to comment right now, but here’s my ballot:

    AL
    1. Dallas Keuchel
    2. David Price
    3. Corey Kluber
    4. Sonny Gray
    5. Chris Archer

    NL
    1. Jake Arrieta
    2. Clayton Kershaw
    3. Zack Greinke
    4. Max Scherzer
    5. Madison Bumgarner

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  5. John

    AL:

    1. Price (hands down)
    2. Sale
    3. Archer
    4. Kubler
    5. Kuechler

    NL

    1. Arieta
    2t. Kershaw
    2t. Greike
    4t. Bumgarner
    4t. Scherzer

    Two ties in the NL, for 2nd and for 4th. Without Sale, the White Sox might’ve finished in Louisville. Even so, not better than Price

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  6. Paul E

    I believe the “real” Cy Young award offers three choices on the ballot? But, here goes:
    Greinke
    Arrieta
    Kershaw
    Bumgarner
    Lackey

    Keuchel
    Price
    Gray
    Sale
    Hernandez

    In the AL, I considered Colby Lewis (17-9 4.66) since he did such a great job of pitching to the score 🙁

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  7. e pluribus munu

    If I were a real voter, I’d have several more steps to take before making a judgment, because it’s a really close call in both races, as I see it. What I’ve taken into account, apart from ERA, ERA+, FIP, and WAR (using the rWAR and fWAR average), are the following factors: Games of 8.0+ IP, Games of <5.0 IP (excepting Kershaw's final start, where he was pulled despite being in top form), Game Scores of 80+, Run average (counting unearned runs), and, for those on contenders, record from July 1 on (I'm not of Brent's mind on this – I think pennant races create a unique context where there is opportunity to add or lose extra value).

    What I'd really like to do is look at the pitching line for each game in context, especially the context for unearned runs, some of which involve zero pitcher responsibility, others near full responsibility, and slight discounts for blowouts either way. I started on the unearned run contexts, but it's too time consuming for so many pitchers. (Altogether, I considered the top 9 on Bryan's AL list, and the top 7 in the NL, plus Lackey.)

    To me, Price and Keuchel are almost indistinguishable in quality. Price is a bit stronger down the stretch, Keuchel has a significantly better run average, and 5 vs. 3 GSc at 80+. His WAR is also significantly higher. So I'm going with Keuchel on top.

    It's worse in the NL, as the top three even out. Kershaw has a significant advantage in FIP, but is significantly behind in ERA and RA figures, just the reverse of Greinke, while Arrieta stays pretty close to top or in the middle of the three everywhere. None of them has a single ineffective start, in my view (!). I eliminate Greinke because he has only 3 GSc over 80+, vs. Kershaw (9) and Arrieta (7), and, parallel to that, significantly fewer games pitched through the eighth. Being able to hold the opposition until the closer comes in seems to me the hallmark of a "most valuable starting pitcher" today. (Scherzer matched Kershaw in 8+ IP stints at 10, with Bumgarner nearby with 8, just trailing Arrieta, but both had far fewer high game scores – deGrom did better there, while Cole had zero.) I went with Arrieta over Kershaw, using his incredible stretch run as a tie-breaker. I'm a big fan of Kershaw and Brooklyn (even though they play their home games away), so I think it was an honest call.

    Keuchel
    Price
    Gray
    Sale
    Kluber

    Arrieta
    Kershaw
    Greinke
    Scherzer
    Bumgarner (deGrom just behind)

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  10. no statistician but

    AL:

    Price
    Sale
    Keuchel
    Dellin Betances
    Wade Davis

    NL:

    Arrieta
    Kershaw
    Grienke
    Scherzer
    deGrom

    My recognition of Betances and Davis comes from a desire to vote for the most valuable pitchers. Without Betances, the Yankees would not have come close to making the playoffs. He appeared in 58 of the teams 87 wins, had 6 Wins, 28 Holds and 9 Saves, didn’t allow an earned run in the first two months of the season while the team was hanging on to first place in a division that seemed to be going nowhere, etc. Davis was the best pitcher on the World Series champs with an astonishing ERA of .094, appearing in 59 of the Royals’ 95 wins, taking over as closer late in the season, and finishing with 8 Wins, 18 Holds, and 17 Saves.

    The game has changed of late, especially in the way middle relievers can impact upon outcome. Betances and Davis deserve more credit than WAR can allot them in terms of value.

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    1. e pluribus munu

      nsb, While I wouldn’t rate either reliever above the high WAR starters, you raise really interesting points. With regard to Davis, I think we’d need to analyze game situations to see how his amazing ERA in under 70 innings converts to value – in at least 20 of his games, he entered in the 8th or 9th with a lead of three runs or greater, and he never threw more than an inning. The Royals were a very strong pitching team, and Davis’s exceptional quality in his niche added to that, but was not a critical piece. If we’re judging on quality, then the quantity issue is important to consider. If we’re judging on impact (the way many judge MVPs), then we have to look closer – one way of doing that would be look at WPA, and it is impressive that Davis led all pitchers in WPA.

      In the case of Betances, as your comment implies, impact was the critical factor – and clearly that’s precisely why you’ve placed him above Davis. And Betances’ impact was exceptional, but his WPA was lower than Davis’s (though by less than 10%) – because the impact that matters in this case concerns season impact, rather than game impact.

      I have a strong bias in favor of starting pitchers over one-inning relievers in any slot when it comes to calculating season value, but you’ve made me think I have to revisit that once again. Your point about middle relievers may also muck up my calculation of starting pitcher value in terms of an emphasis on 8+ inning starts, rather than 7+ inning
      starts. But good one-inning relievers gain a tremendous amount of their value simply by the logic of WPA, rather than by quality x quantity measures, and they are no more responsible for their high game leverage than starters are for the low game leverage of the early innings that run up their pitch counts and tire their arms as they move towards the higher leverage contexts. If you look at Situational Wins Saved to discount for leverage, for example, Gray and Kluber, whom you ranked behind Betances and Davis, are far ahead.

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  15. Bryan O'Connor Post author

    Thanks for playing, everyone. I’ll include my ballots here before compiling and posting the results.

    1. Keuchel
    2. Price
    3. Sale
    4. Betances
    5. W. Davis

    1. Arrieta
    2. Kershaw
    3. Greinke
    4. Scherzer
    5. Cole

    Details here. The NL ballot was excruciating.

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