This is part of a series of posts. Please read our methodology here)
Charlie Hayes played 1
4 years in the majors and was liked enough to do two tours of duty with 3 different franchises–the Giants (1988-89 & 1998-99), the Phillies (1989-1991 & 1995) and the Yankees (1992 & 1996-97). By virtue of playing an important position, third base, and being a consistently above-average defender, he turned out a career WAR of 10.5 despite being a below-average hitter for a corner infielder.
Hayes posted by far his best offensive season when he joined the Rockies in their inaugural season of 1993. And this season wasn’t just a “Coors effect”–his 118 OPS+ was 4th in the NL among 3Bs, just behind Gary Sheffield (120) and Dave Hollins (119), who all trailed leader Matt Williams (137) by a good chunk.
In 1993 Hayes had career bests in all of his slash-line categories, posting .305/.355/.522 vs career numbers of .262/.316/.398. He posted career highs in just about every offensive statistic, including hits, HR, 2B, SB, RBI, and R.
All this translated to +12 WAR batting runs that season. In his 13 other seasons, he totaled -92 batting runs, with every season being negative save a +3 in 1998.
Like many players on this countdown, Hayes is probably remembered as a better offensive player than he actually was, thanks to substantial value in his defense and his deserved longevity in the majors.
Fun series idea, Andy!
I think this Charlie Hayes season (as well as seasons by Ellis Burks, Andres Galarraga, Vinnie Castillo, and even Larry Walker) are the reasons that people think OPS+ doesn’t do ENOUGH to mitigate the “Coors effect.” Bad hitters typically put up not just their best seasons, but seasons completely incommensurate with their career lines.
(Of course, there are ALSO players who don’t do AS well as you’d expect them to in Coors. Personally, I think the thing that’s missed is that all hitters hit 3-5% better at home, and that gets magnified at Coors, and leads to SLIGHTLY inflated park effects, but that’s neither here nor there.)
I think another factor in Hayes’ being “remembered as a better offensive player than he actual[ly] was” is the fact that he played during such a great era for offense. He consistently hit double-digit homers and had batting averages in the .260s. That looks like an historically average player. Unfortunately, the Selig Era was anything but historically average, so EVERYONE got a bit overrated.
Doom – Of the players you mentioned, they all produced more Rbat/PA while playing for the Rockies than they did playing for other teams. With four of the players, it was substantially more.
Per 600 PA, here’s how much Rbat each of them produced, first while playing for the Rockies, then playing for other teams.
Walker (39 vs 20)
Galarrraga (23 vs 10)
Castillo (5 vs -18)
Hayes (4 vs -11)
Burks (24 vs 21)
So all of them, except for Burks, were 13 to 23 runs better per 600 PA while playing for the Rockies than they were playing for other teams.
Granted, 5 players isn’t much data. But are there players who did the opposite…hit much worse for the Rockies than they did for other teams?
That data is compelling, but there is also an issue that guys like Walker and Galarraga played for COL during their peak years. When Walker went to STL he was crazy productive for an older player but it’s no surprise that he wasn’t up to his usual standards. Tough to tease out whether the park factor is insufficient in its correction.
Andy – I disagree that Walker and Galarraga played for COL during their peak years. From a Fangraphs article by Jeff Zimmerman:
“Better players peak earlier in their careers. While the general population peaks at age 27, the group of good players peak at either 25 or 26 years old. At 30, great players begin to see a pronounced decline.”
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/how-do-star-hitters-age/
Galarraga played for Colorado age 32-36, well past his prime. (plus he was coming off 3 straight negative Rbat seasons).
Walker played for Colorado from ages 28-37. Instead of being his decline years (as we might have expected), he had the best years of his career.
The others…Burks was with Colorado ages 29-33, mostly past prime. Castilla ages 25-31 could be considered mostly prime. Hayes, ages 28-29, probably past prime.
Here are some more recent ones.
Michael Cuddyer 23 in COL vs 9 elsewhere. His Colorado years were ages 33-35, all past prime.
Justin Morneau 15 in Col vs 12 elsewhere. Ages 33-34 in Col (past prime) plus he was in serious decline before moving to Colorado.
I remember Hayes from my Rotisserie baseball days in the 90’s. He was usually somewhere between the third & fourth tier of third baseman (the 5th tier being “Whatever you can find for a buck’) along with guys like Dave Magadan and Scott Brosius. Usually went for single digit money altho I’m guessing that for a few years there he may have been in the low double digits a time or two.
I also recall his being hyped as a fairly hot prospect when coming up with the Giants. Hard to fathom the Giants giving up Hayes, Terry Mulholland and Dennis Cook (all early in their careers) for Steve “Bedrock” Bedrosian and nobody.
I guess some GM’s overvalued closers almost as much as we did in Rotisserie baseball.
I actually talked to Charlie Hayes once. When he was coming up in the Giants’ system, he was blocked at 3B by Matt Williams and the Giants moved him to shortstop in the minors, which he was bad at. The Phillies traded for him to move him back to 3B in the hopes that his bat would develop and he’d be a permanent replacement for Mike Schmidt. His bat didn’t develop but his defense did gradually improve enough to make him worth playing every day.
Hartvig – Looking back it’s hard to understand why the Giants felt they needed Bedrosian in the first place. At the time of the trade, Craig Lefferts had 19 saves and a 2.19 ERA. Did they really think Bedrosian was that much of an upgrade?
Barry Bonds led the NL in OPS+ in 1993 and Hayes wasn’t close to fourth. He had a nice year but 118 isn’t anything to get excited about.
I believe Andy left out the qualifier “among 3B.” Among all players, Hayes’s 118 OPS+ was good for 27th in the NL, tied with Al Martin and Will Clark. Williams, Sheffield and Hollins were the only 3B who posted a better OPS+, though.
Indeed, I left out the 3B qualifier.