Forty is the New Thirty

Or so it seems with the performances to start this season of two grizzled veterans and presumptive HOFers. I’m speaking, of course, of David Ortiz and Ichiro Suzuki who are reminding us why we won’t soon see their likes again.

More after the jump.

Ortiz is reportedly playing his final season though I imagine that, as a free agent after this year, more than one team may try to persuade him to rethink his future plans. The reason, plainly enough, is off-the-chart numbers that project Big Papi to post a career best WAR total. Already, his 3.4 WAR as of this writing is higher than the total for either of his last two seasons and puts him in easy reach of his best total of the past eight years, a 4.4 mark in 2013. His career best 6.4 in 2007 may be a stretch, but not if he posts a second half anything like what he has done so far this season.

Here are Ortiz’s numbers through Boston’s first 75 games, what they project to for 162 games, and a second projection based on half of the first projection for the rest of the season. Barring injury, Ortiz is likely to play much more than shown in the second projection, so his counting stats should surpass most of those still impressive totals. In fact, were Ortiz to compile those second projection totals while playing as much as in the first projection, his rate stats would end up as the still respectable numbers in the third projection. Most likely, Ortiz will surpass those third projection totals as, for example, he would have to bat .170 the rest of the season to finish with the .247 BA of projection #3.

Rk Player OPS OPS+ WAR TB XBH G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB IBB SO BA OBP SLG Pos
Thru 75 G David Ortiz 1.112 188 3.3 170 49 69 291 249 34 84 30 1 18 61 40 10 40 .337 .430 .683 *D/H
162 G Proj #1 David Ortiz 1.112 188 7.1 367 106 149 629 538 73 181 65 2 39 132 86 22 86 .337 .430 .683 *D/H
162 G Proj #2 David Ortiz 1.112 188 5.2 269 77 109 460 393 54 133 47 2 28 96 63 16 63 .337 .430 .683 *D/H
162 G Proj #3 David Ortiz 0.827 117 5.2 269 77 149 629 538 54 133 47 2 28 96 63 16 63 .247 .327 .500 *D/H
Age 40+ Record Various 0.924 158 6.3 286 62 162 720 634 121 207 35 17 34 108 132 43 128 .357 .440 .508 Various
Oldest Lg Leader Various 39 39 39 35 36 41 38 38 36 39 39 38 39 38 42 42 36 39 40 39 Various
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 6/27/2016.

To provide some context for Ortiz’s season, the table above shows the season records since 1901 for players aged 40 or older (rate records are for qualified seasons). Clearly, Ortiz is poised to surpass (or smash) many of those marks, starting with the the doubles record which could possibly fall as early as the All-Star break. In six of the seven categories (bolded above) in which Ortiz was leading his league after 75 games, he is on pace to become the oldest league leader since 1901, as shown in the last row of the table (the age 40+ record holders and oldest league leaders are shown at the end of the post).

As the season began, there was some doubt as to whether Ichiro Suzuki would play often enough or well enough to record the 65 hits he needed to reach 3000 for his career. That skepticism was understandable for a 42 year-old who posted a .229/.282/.279 slash last season, as players with a .561 OPS are scarcely in demand, most particularly after age 40 (only Rabbit Maranville‘s .539 OPS in 1933 ranks lower in 400 PA seasons aged 40+). Ichiro has answered his critics with a renaissance year that has removed any doubt (barring injury) of reaching 3000 hits, a milestone that could possibly come even before the All-Star Game.

There are few, if any parallels to Ichiro’s resurgence this year. His 2015 season of 56 OPS+ is the worst ever in 300+ PA by a player aged 40+ and one of just 10 such seasons below 80 OPS+. Of those players, none posted even 100 OPS+ in any 300 PA aged 40+ season, so Ichiro, with a 119 OPS+ as of this writing, could well be the first with such a turnaround. In fact, at an age at which most players are winding down their careers with (usually) indifferent results in (very) limited playing time, Ichiro has become just the 20th player since 1913 to amass 150 PA over his team’s first 75 games in his age 42 or older season.

150 PA Over First 75 Team Games Age 42+, Since 1913
Ichiro is last in PA on the list above but first in BA and OBP. While some leveling off of his performance to date is to be expected over the rest of the season, he certainly seems likely to post one of the best batting average seasons for players aged 42+, with only the eleven seasons below showing a .275 BA in 300 PA at that age.

Rk Player BA PA Year Age Tm G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO OBP SLG OPS Pos
1 Sam Rice .323 324 1932 42 WSH 106 288 58 93 16 7 1 34 32 6 .391 .438 .828 9H87
2 Julio Franco .309 361 2004 45 ATL 125 320 37 99 18 3 6 57 36 68 .378 .441 .818 *3H/D
3 Luke Appling .301 619 1949 42 CHW 142 492 82 148 21 5 5 58 121 24 .439 .394 .833 *6/H
4 Sam Rice .293 365 1934 44 CLE 97 335 48 98 19 1 1 33 28 9 .351 .364 .715 *9H7
5 Honus Wagner .287 485 1916 42 PIT 124 432 45 124 15 9 1 39 34 36 .350 .370 .721 *63/H4
6 Pete Rose .286 421 1984 43 TOT 121 374 43 107 15 2 0 34 40 27 .359 .337 .696 *3H7
7 Carlton Fisk .285 521 1990 42 CHW 137 452 65 129 21 0 18 65 61 73 .378 .451 .829 *2DH
8 Julio Franco .284 383 2002 43 ATL 125 338 51 96 13 1 6 30 39 75 .357 .382 .739 *3H/D
9 Omar Vizquel .276 391 2010 43 CHW 108 344 36 95 11 1 2 30 34 45 .341 .331 .673 *54/6HD
10 Barry Bonds .276 477 2007 42 SFG 126 340 75 94 14 0 28 66 132 54 .480 .565 1.045 *7H/D
11 Carl Yastrzemski .275 523 1982 42 BOS 131 459 53 126 22 1 16 72 59 50 .358 .431 .789 *DH3/8
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 7/4/2016.

Part of the reason for Ichiro’s success this season is a career-best walk rate of 11.2% of PAs through Miami’s first 75 games. Only once before has Ichiro posted a 9% walk rate, that coming in his sophomore 2002 season when he led the AL with a career high 27 intentional passes. While players do tend to draw more walks as they get older, Ichiro is exceptional in that regard as the only player, among 23 with a 7% walk rate in 1000+ PA aged 40+, to post a walk rate below 6% before age 40.

I started this post by describing this pair as presumptive HOFers and, as likable players with elite career milestones (and, in Ortiz’s case, elite post-season results), they do seem like safe bets. That said, on a strict WAR basis, these two are borderline HOFers at best, with Ichiro likely to just nudge past 60 WAR this year and Ortiz cresting above only the 55 WAR threshold. Still, hard to see either of these players not getting a Cooperstown ticket that should come, if not on their first ballot opportunity, soon thereafter.

As promised, here is the table of age 40+ record holders, and the oldest league leaders, both since 1901.

[table id=293 /]

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Dr. Doom
Dr. Doom
7 years ago

While I’ll agree that “on a strict WAR basis, these two are borderline HOFers at best,” I hardly think it’s fair to pretend that Ichiro wasn’t a baseball player prior to 2001. I think you HAVE to give him some credit for pre-2001 achievements, even if you heavily discount what he did in Japan. Say, he makes his debut at age-23 as a September call-up (and age-23 is probably late, considering his talent, but we’re being conservative here), assume 3.0-WAR production for age-24 through age-26 (if you think that’s too liberal, I don’t – Ichiro didn’t have a single season… Read more »

Doug
Doug
7 years ago
Reply to  Dr. Doom

I certainly agree with that sentiment. Passing Rose in major professional career hits and doing so when three years younger than Rose in his finale is also a feather in Ichiro’s cap.

mosc
mosc
7 years ago
Reply to  Doug

Well lets not discount Rose so fast either. If you include Ichiro’s full Japanese career going back to his age 18! season, can we get some MINOR league love for Pete Rose? He didn’t even play minor league ball in his age 18 season but he had 427 minor league hits. If you add that with his major league total, he’s still ahead.
4683 > 4268. Ichiro hasn’t even passed Cobb by that metric who played minor league ball at age 17.

bstar
7 years ago
Reply to  Doug

I think NPB league quality is generally considered to be between AAA and MLB strength, probably closer to AAA. So quad-A, basically, but that’s not an apples-to-apples thingie either.

But I agree with mosc’s sentiment that Rose’s minor league hits should count also.

Kahuna Tuna
Kahuna Tuna
7 years ago
Reply to  mosc

I don’t care all that much about whether Ichiro’s Japanese hits are counted in his all-time hits total. But I do have a problem with counting minor-league stats, Rose’s or anyone else’s. Those are apprentice stats. They were not achieved at the top level of competition. No “minor league” of at least the last 50 years has any legitimate claim to top-level competitive status, at least since the Pacific Coast League dropped its unaffiliated status and entered the existing minor-/major-league administrative structure.

David P
David P
7 years ago
Reply to  Dr. Doom

I don’t think the baseball HOF voting rules really allow for that (unlike say the basketball HOF). Not that you can really prevent voters from doing so. And honestly, I think it’s irrelevant. Ichiro will be an easy first ballot selection, even without his time in Japan. Ortiz, on the other hand, I really have no idea what will happen. I’m not sure who his voting constituency is. The traditional stats guys will love his numbers but will hold the failed PED test against him. And they don’t tend to like DHs. The advanced stats guys don’t tend to care… Read more »

Doug
Doug
7 years ago
Reply to  David P

FWIW, this is what Ortiz’s B-R player page is showing. Hall Of Fame Statistics. Player rank in (·) Black Ink Batting – 21 (101), Average HOFer ≈ 27 Gray Ink Batting – 161 (73), Average HOFer ≈ 144 Hall of Fame Monitor Batting – 154 (81), Likely HOFer ≈ 100 Hall of Fame Standards Batting – 52 (74), Average HOFer ≈ 50 Hall of Stats has Ortiz well below the 100 cutoff line, with an 84 score, and Fred McGriff, Jason Giambi, Orlando Cepeda, Carlos Delgado and Vlad Guerrero as his most similar players (but none of them have 500… Read more »

Voomo Zanzibar
Voomo Zanzibar
7 years ago
Reply to  Doug

If you search with PA instead of AB, and use 11+ percent, you get the same list for the Top 10, but then McGwire drops off and it goes:

881 … DiMaggio
847 … Juan Gone
791 … Belle
781 … Greenberg
619 … Braun
572 … Chick Hafey

And then a few current players under 5000 PA:

366 / 3258 … Giancarlo
231 / 2003 … Arenado
136 / 1179 … Corey Dickerson
77 / 691 ……. Randall Grichuk

Jimbo
Jimbo
7 years ago

It’s ridiculous to look at only the career regular season stats of David Ortiz and make an analysis of his career based on that. His post season heroics are what take him from a borderline guy to a no doubter.. (PED stuff aside) One day I hope that the stats community better integrates the post season into this type of stuff. In the case of Ortiz, we’re talking about 82 of the highest leverage games of his career, and he stepped it up and hit like a beast against better pitchers. He played in 3 World Series, was the winner… Read more »

brp
brp
7 years ago
Reply to  Jimbo

The problem with taking post-season into consideration is it penalizes a guy like Mike Trout. Do we blame Trout for not getting the opportunity because his front office is incompetent and can’t surround him with decent players (example, their pitching staff is 4.9 wins below average)? Then how can we reward Ortiz for being lucky enough to play with Pedro, Schilling, Ramirez, Pedroia, etc.? Yes, what he did in the playoffs is impressive and it can be considered as a factor, but only as a tiebreaker or something like that. It’s not like Fred McGriff or Jason Giambi, to pick… Read more »

David P
David P
7 years ago
Reply to  brp

Adding to BRP’s comment. modern day players get a lot more postseason opportunities than players from times past. More teams in the playoffs, more rounds of playoffs, etc.

Richard Chester
Richard Chester
7 years ago
Reply to  David P

From 1901-1968 out of 8446 ML players 1323, or 15.7%, played in post-season. From 1969-2015 out of 8985 ML players 2522, or 28.1%, played in post-season.

Mike L
Mike L
7 years ago
Reply to  David P

To that end, Ortiz has about the same number of post season plate appearances as Wagner, Williams, Mays, Aaron, and Cobb and Hornsby combined.

bstar
7 years ago
Reply to  brp

brp, I think “penalize” might be too strong of a word. Mike Trout is almost unilaterally regarded as baseball’s best player and Clayton Kershaw is seen as baseball’s best pitcher. Trout having no postseason record or Kershaw having a very dubious one has not had enough of an impact to dislodge either from their rightful place as baseball’s best players. I don’t really see historical evidence that players are penalized for little/ poor postseason play, either. –Andre Dawson played in only 3 postseason series, put up a .475 OPS, but made the Hall of Fame. –Dave Winfield went 1-for-22 in… Read more »

Jimbo
Jimbo
7 years ago

Also, could the coaching of Barry Bonds possibly be having a role in Ichiros increased plate discpline?

Doug
Doug
7 years ago
Reply to  Jimbo

Good point, Jimbo. Certainly couldn’t hurt to have that kind of coaching, especially being another LH hitter. Ichiro’s sudden rise in walk rate reminds me of Pete Rose’s 1985 (age 44) season when a posted a 17.2% walk rate in 501 PA. That came after four straight seasons below 10% and with a previous high of just 13.7%, eleven years before. My first thought was that maybe Rose batted eighth a lot that year and got those extra free passes ahead of the pitcher, but no, he was in his customary position near the top of the order, with about… Read more »

Mike L
Mike L
7 years ago

Nothing fills my day with more joy than a celebration of David Ortiz. Since I’m a political junkie as much as a baseball one, Ortiz is the perfect representative of the bipolar approach we often take to both. If you are a critic, you point out his position, his WAR, his PED issues, and the inexplicable way that MLB promotes him, while shunning and penalizing other users. If you are a fan, you exult in his accomplishments and place him with the baseball gods.

Mike L
Mike L
7 years ago
Reply to  Doug

Doug–being a Yankee fan perhaps blinds me to his charms, but we have several all-time greats who are presently waiting for admission to HOF who were also high performers at a late age–but had the PED taint. Clemens won the Cy Young at 41, finished 3rd the year after while leading the league in ERA. Bonds put up an insane year at 39. At 41 and 42, he managed 4.0 and 3.4 BWAR with ridiculous OBA’s.
Papi clearly has a better personality (cursing notwithstanding) but there’s no question he gets markedly different treatment.

David P
David P
7 years ago
Reply to  Mike L

Mike L – This Indians’ fan is also blind to his charms. Far from likeable, I find him to one of the least likeable players in all of sports. In addition to possible/probable PEDs used, it seems like all he never does is whine and complain. I say good riddance…

no statistician but
no statistician but
7 years ago

I’m rather late to the party, but—the most relevant event of Ortiz’s career was when he was signed by the BoSox. Why? Because the most relevant element of Ortiz’s success is Fenway Park. In this he is rather like Larry Walker, only not as good, in so far as 1) after his early years in the majors he, too, found a home park particularly suited to his batting style, but 2) whereas he was a marginal player for most of his early years, Walker gained All-Star credit, a Silver Slugger award, and some fielding honors while still an Expo. I… Read more »

Voomo Zanzibar
Voomo Zanzibar
7 years ago

Ortiz’s career slash lines in the ballparks he’s had the most PA:

.311 / .408 / .588 / .996 … Boston (4206)
.269 / .353 / .428 / .781 … Metrodome (952)
.264 / .352 / .591 / .943 … Totonto (537)
.258 / .361 / .505 / .865 … Baltimore (521)
.262 / .391 / .559 / .951 … St. Petersburg (506)

bstar
7 years ago

Ortiz’s career home OPS is 69 points higher than away OPS. Walker’s career home OPS is 203 points higher than away OPS. I don’t really see a strong similarity, nsb. Ortiz’s career home/road tOPS+ split is 108/92, which looks fairly normal for a guy who’s played almost 15 years at Fenway. Ortiz also has 70 fewer home HRs than road ones. The one stat where he’s really benefited is doubles — 134 more at home than on the road (Wade Boggs has a similar-looking split.) So, in an average park all these years, Ortiz would probably be somewhere around 600… Read more »

no statistician but
no statistician but
7 years ago
Reply to  bstar

Bstar: Over 17% of Ortiz’s PAs occurred for the Twins, where his H/R OPS split was basically the reverse of that playing for Boston. The difference can be seen in a general sense in Voomo’s list (#21 above), which shows a .215 differential between his OPS in the Metrodome and Fenway. Someone with more time than I have—or an in to the statistical workings of B-Ref, maybe—could work out the exact split for Fenway, but it isn’t .069, which covers his whole career, not just his Red Sox years. To me there’s no getting around the fact that Ortiz was… Read more »

bstar
7 years ago

I’ve found a way to get H/R OPS splits for partial careers using the Split Finder. Ortiz Twins overall OPS: .809 Ortiz Twins home OPS: .791 Ortiz Twins away OPS: .827 So, yes, a reverse split but only a 36-point difference. Ortiz BOS overall OPS: .957 Ortiz BOS home OPS: 1.002 Ortiz BOS road OPS: .911 A 91-point difference. Here’s Larry Walker in Colorado, which unfortunately includes 40 games with St. Louis in 2004 because I don’t know how to separate that from his 2004 Rockies tenure. But 40 games is only 3-4% of his games from 1995-2004. Anyway: Walker… Read more »

Richard Chester
Richard Chester
7 years ago
Reply to  bstar

Using the PI Game Finder I found that with Colorado from 1995-2004 Walker’s OPS values were 1.044 overall, 1.179 at home and .899 on the road.

bstar
7 years ago
Reply to  bstar

Richard, great! I’d love to hear how you did that. If you happen to have the component parts of his OPS for that time period (home/road OBP and SLG), I can finally compute Walker’s tOPS+ splits for his time in Colorado. Back-of-the-envelope says around 126/74 but I’d like to get a definite number, if only to satisfy a personal curiosity.

Richard Chester
Richard Chester
7 years ago
Reply to  bstar

Reply to #32. Here are the steps I took.
Player Batting Game Finder
Most Matching Games in Multiple Years
Years From 1995 To 2004
Player’s Team Rockies
Home
Get Report and look for Walker’s name on the list

Then repeat but replace Home with Visitor

Repeat again but replace Visitor with Either

Mike L
Mike L
7 years ago

Good points by Bstar @17, and NSB @18. Piling in here a little bit more: 1. On post season, yes, Ortiz did do it, and he deserves credit for it. But it’s an enhancement to his resume, not a ticket to Cooperstown. I think the Boston media perhaps overestimate the centrality that Red Sox World Series wins hold in the hearts and minds of the rest of the country. 2. I don’t think there’s any question that if I were picking a roster, I’d grab a multifaceted player (including glove and legs) like Larry Walker, who, like Oritz, had stats… Read more »

David P
David P
7 years ago
Reply to  Mike L

Bstar – As Mike L says, you make some fair points. But counter to Mike’s #1, Ortiz’ postseason resume is good, but it’s nowhere close to what the media has built it up to be. His overall postseason OPS is .962. Looking just at the years his teams made the postseason, his weighted OPS those years is .957. So he’s basically performed at the level we would expect him to be. Now, there’s nothing wrong with that but Ortiz is no Carlos Beltran. Of course, Ortiz supporters will point out that it’s the WS where he’s really shined, putting up… Read more »

bstar
7 years ago
Reply to  Mike L

Mike, I agree with a lot of what you say. 1. “I think the Boston media perhaps overestimate the centrality that Red Sox World Series wins hold in the hearts and minds of the rest of the country.” I don’t mean this in a mean way, Mike, but do you not sense a little irony in this statement considering you are a Yankees fan? Non-fans of either NY team or the Bosox have to suffer through over-coverage of these three teams every single year. I’d say any Cub haters out there are having a tough time this summer, too. 2.… Read more »

Mike L
Mike L
7 years ago
Reply to  bstar

Bstar–yep–I knew what I was saying “I think the Boston media perhaps overestimate the centrality that Red Sox World Series wins hold in the hearts and minds of the rest of the country.” Just having some fun with it. On the steroid front, I understand the point you are making, and I do accept the idea that there are differences in degree. But older players currently on the outside–like Bonds, Clemens, McGwire, Palmeiro, played the bulk of their careers in an era when PED use was either ignored, or officially penalized, but tacitly tolerated and even encouraged. What people are… Read more »

bstar
7 years ago
Reply to  Mike L

Again, I agree with just about everything you say, Mike. Perhaps I’ve sent out confusing signals — no, I do not think Ortiz SHOULD be an obvious first ballot inductee, or an inductee at all, but I suspect/fear that he will be. Too many career HR & XBH, too many postseason walk-off hits, and not enough steroid taint to cancel those out. Sheffield/Brown probably weren’t the best examples I could have used. Maybe Andy Pettitte is the only relevant comp, because I do think he will not be judged as harshly for HGH use. One other aspect that may separate… Read more »

David P
David P
7 years ago
Reply to  bstar

Bstar – I find your #2 quite confusing, making it difficult to respond to but I’ll do my best. “His DH status notwithstanding, I would rather have him for the postseason than a great-fielding shortstop with an 85 OPS+ who is also a 3-4 WAR player, for the reasons outlined above.” That’s an obvious false choice since no manager would ever be faced with that decision. But if they were, then you’d have to take it to its logical conclusion. In other words, if you’re choosing Ortiz over the great fielding shortstop, that means that you now have to play… Read more »

Voomo Zanzibar
Voomo Zanzibar
7 years ago
Reply to  bstar

I hope Barry Lamar comes back for a few pinch-hitting appearances this season so that he can be exempted from the HOF discussion for another half decade.

oneblankspace
oneblankspace
7 years ago
Reply to  Mike L

Boston wasn’t cursed, they just thought they were. Looking at the five major sports leagues (from a blog post I wrote)… Let us turn back the clock to the beginning of the 2004 baseball season, before the Red Sox ended their curse, and look at the longest droughts in professional sports at that time. NL World Series : Chicago Cubs, 1908 (last Boston Braves series title : 1914) NL Pennant : Cubs, 1945 (Boston Braves : 1948) AL World Series : Chicago White Sox, 1917 (Red Sox : 1918) AL Pennant : White Sox, 1959 (Red Sox : 1986) Stanley… Read more »

no statistician but
no statistician but
7 years ago

Since the Early Season thread is no longer really applicable, I’m putting my Danny Salazar update here:

Last night saw a third less-than-stirling outing out of four, 6 earned runs in 5.2 innings—thanks in part to his reliever Otero, who allowed a 2-out bases-loaded triple which put the Yanks ahead and threatened Salazar with his first loss since god knows when. Four days of rest again. Eight hits, only 2 walks—112 pitches, though, and ERA skyrocketing to 2.75 from 2.36. One bad outing can do that. He still leads the AL in WAR, though.

Dr. Doom
Dr. Doom
7 years ago

A couple more things, vis-a-vis Ichiro: He’s now only 10 hits away from 3000. That is so insane. I’m so glad to see him do it. I was also looking at his OPS+ numbers. He hasn’t been over 100 in 5 years. I don’t even know how to phrase such a query on the Play Index, but I’ve got to think that it’s just about unique in the annals of MLB to be a sub-average hitter for 5 years, and then come back with a vengeance at age-42 and be above average, much less to do so with the 121… Read more »

David P
David P
7 years ago
Reply to  Dr. Doom

Not quite the same but Julio Franco put up a 94 OPS at age 38 in 1997. He was then basically out of MLB for the next 3+ years, other than a token PA with the Rays in 1999. He returned to the majors in 2001, a few days after turning 43, playing full time for the Braves down the stretch and compiling a 109 OPS+.

Richard Chester
Richard Chester
7 years ago
Reply to  Dr. Doom

Here’s the closest I found for position players. From ages 38-41 Deacon McGuire was a sub-average player and at age 42 he had an OPS+ of 110 with 159 PA. From ages 34-40 Jimmy Dykes was sub-average and had an OPS+ of 105 at age 41 with 99 PA.

Richard Chester
Richard Chester
7 years ago

From ages 33-39 Bert Campaneris had an OPS+ of 92, 88, 78, 37, 58, 75 and 85. After being out of the ML for age 40 he came back with the Yankees at age 41 and produced 101 OPS+ with 155 PA. His .322 BA that year was the highest of his career and the only time he hit above .290.

Voomo Zanzibar
Voomo Zanzibar
7 years ago

At the AS break, the combined W/L records of the 10 AL starters with a SO/9 above 9:

61 – 71

The top two guys, Pineda and Archer, are 7 -20.

In the NL it is what you would expect:
87 – 46

And 53 – 16 from the top 5.
____________________________

Voomo Zanzibar
Voomo Zanzibar
7 years ago

Pitching Records that could be broken this year:

WHIP:
.7273 … Kershaw (2016)
.7373 … Pedro
.7803 … Walter Johnson
.8062 … Addie Joss
.8108 … Greg Maddux

SO/BB
16.1111 … Clayton Kershaw 2016
11.6250 … Phil Hughes
11.0000 … Bret Saberhagen
10.2778 … Cliff Lee

H/9
5.2606 … Nolan Ryan
5.2955 … Luis Tiant
5.3064 … Nolan Ryan
5.3088 … Pedro Martinez
5.3257 … Ed Reulbach
5.5208 … Marco Estrada 2016

Notable:
Juerys Familia has 31 Saves.

Doug
Doug
7 years ago

Couple of Josh Donaldson factoids. – He has 20 home runs and 80 runs scored at the A-S break. Which other five players have done this? – He is on a run of 23 consecutive stolen bases with his last caught stealing more than three years ago. If he avoids a CS the rest of the year, he’ll be the first searchable player with 3 consecutive seasons of 5+ steals and no CS. – Barring injury, this will be his fourth consecutive season with 5 WAA to join Wade Boggs (5 straight) and Mike Schmidt (4 straight, twice) as the… Read more »

David P
David P
7 years ago
Reply to  Doug

One of them is Manny Ramirez – 25 HRs and 96 RBIs at the All Star break in 1999.

David P
David P
7 years ago
Reply to  Doug

Oops saw what I wanted to see. Then we’ll go with the guy who was on pace to break the home run record but didn’t even make it to 50. In 1969, Reggie Jackson had 37 homes runs and 84 runs scored at the All-Star break.

Richard Chester
Richard Chester
7 years ago
Reply to  Doug

Doug: I am at a loss. My PI Split Finder run for the First Half shows 11 different players who meet the criteria during the All-Star game era. Evidently the PI defines the First Half of a season as ending with the date of the All-Star game.

Voomo Zanzibar
Voomo Zanzibar
7 years ago

Trout has moved up the list…

Plate Appearances per Win Above Average (PaWaa)
Career – Minimum 2000 PA

84.4 … (10622) Babe Ruth
97.2 … (9480) Rogers Hornsby
99.8 … (3263) Mike Trout*
102.1 … (12606) Barry Bonds
104.0 … (9788) Ted Williams
113.5 … (12496) Willie Mays
123.1 … (9663) Lou Gehrig
125.7 … (9907) Mickey Mantle
127.7 … (11748) Honus Wagner
128.5 … (13084) Ty Cobb

mosc
mosc
7 years ago
Reply to  Voomo Zanzibar

If trout decided to go play football or something, I’d vote for him for the hall of fame. The peak and WAA are high enough, career wise. Age 24 be damned. I think it’s a moot point because he’s hardly done producing but this is about the point where he’s crossed my line. 32.7 WAA is more than a lot of HOF’ers and nobody who’s out has a peak 5 looking ANYTHING like trout.

David P
David P
7 years ago
Reply to  mosc

If Trout is already a HOFer, what about Kershaw? And if the answer to Kershaw is yes, then what about Johan Santana? Kershaw so far has 1732 IP, 51.9 WAR, 38.2 WAA. During his 9 year peak (which is most of his career), Santana posted 1779 IP, 50.1 WAR, 34.1 WAA. Virtually identical to Kershaw. Kershaw has 3 Cy Youngs (plus a second and third place), an MVP, 6 All Star games, 1 gold glove. Santana has 2 Cy Youngs, (plus two thirds, a fifth, and a seventh place), 4 All Star games, 1 gold glove. Both hit well. Kershaw… Read more »

Doug
Doug
7 years ago
Reply to  David P

At the risk of stating the obvious, Kershaw has compiled Santana’s numbers in two fewer seasons. By the end of this season, Kershaw is likely to stand at least 5th and possibly 2nd among live ball era pitchers in most career WAR through age 28, with only Bert Blyleven out of reach in top spot. Being only 28 , he is likely to have two or three more seasons of peak level performance and possibly 5 or more years after that of being a top cailber pitcher, albeit below his peak level. Even if Kershaw follows Santana in having his… Read more »

David P
David P
7 years ago
Reply to  Doug

Except my comparison between Santana and Kershaw was based on their respective 9 year peaks, which are incredibly similar. The point being that if Kershaw were to retire tomorrow, he’d probably be a first ballot HOFer. Whereas I doubt that Santana will get more than minimal support. No doubt Kershaw’s 9 year peak is better than Santana’s. But I don’t see it as so much better to justify how they’ll likely be treated by the HOF.

no statistician but
no statistician but
7 years ago
Reply to  Doug

Doug:

Just a tiny thing your chart fails to account for: Feller, third on the list, missed nearly four years of his career prior to age 29 due to WWII service. Allow him a modest 5.0 WAR per each of those seasons and he’s so far ahead of the others that they seem mediocre.

Somehow Feller gets lost in the background when the discussion turns to great all-time pitchers. I’m guilty of that type of thinking myself. Your chart is a wake-up call.

Mike L
Mike L
7 years ago
Reply to  Voomo Zanzibar

Trout’s exceptional peak vs lifetime numbers for all time greats? That Babe Ruth fellow was pretty good….

bstar
7 years ago
Reply to  Mike L

Nobody’s saying Trout is comparable to Babe Ruth at the career level. He’s very comparable to him, though, at this point of their respective careers (Trout 44 WAR and counting during age-24 season, Babe with around 40 WAR after age 24 season, including pitching WAR.) Ty Cobb leads with 47 WAR at that age, which Trout will likely pass later on this season.

If we can’t get excited about the start of Trout’s career, who will we ever be allowed to get excited about in this regard?

Mike L
Mike L
7 years ago
Reply to  bstar

Wasn’t dissing Trout, Bstar. Marveling at the sustained performance of inner circle HOFers.

bstar
7 years ago

Just for fun. Ichiro’s entire MLB career (ages 27-42) vs. Pete Rose ages 27-42 25.9 WAA, 60.0 WAR……Ichiro career 26.1 WAA, 60.4 WAR……Rose age 27-42 Ichiro 2 batting titles, 1 MVP, tons of counting-stat black ink Rose 3 batting titles, 1 MVP, tons of counting-stat black ink 43.6 WAR7 peak (9-8-6-6-5-5-5)……Ichiro career 44.3 WAR7 peak (8-7-7-6-6-5-5)……Rose age 27-42 2433 G, 10296 PA, 2994 H……Ichiro career 2491 G, 11334 PA, 3091 H……Rose age 27-42 .314/.357/.406/.753, 108 OPS+……Ichiro career .309/.383/.418/.801, 123 OPS+……Rose age 27-42 But Ichiro closes that OPS+ gap with excellent baserunning, the best DP avoidance in MLB history, and Gold-Glove… Read more »

Doug
Doug
7 years ago
Reply to  bstar

Nice stuff, bstar. Kind of eerie how close those numbers are. By the end of the season, Rose will likely have had 850-900 more PA than Ichiro aged 27-42 but less than 100 more hits. Part of the explanation is one number that wasn’t mentioned among all the similar totals, Rose’s 1157 to 619 edge in walks. Another number that’s quite different is Ichiro’s 506 steals to only 146 for Rose. Here’s the Top 10 for Hits aged 27-42 (I don’t think I ever would have come up with number 7). Rk Player H WAR/pos From To Age G PA… Read more »

Richard Chester
Richard Chester
7 years ago

Don’t know where to post this so I’ll do it here. I just read that Jacoby Ellsbury’s 9th time reaching on catcher’s interference tonight is an ML seasonal record. Heres’ a list I got for the most in a season since 1930, listed by number of C.I., year and player.

8….1992….Roberto Kelly
7….1983….Dale Berra
6….2012….Tyler Colvin
6….2010….Carl Crawford
6….2004….Craig Counsell
6….1987….Alan Ashby
6….1986….Johnny Ray
6….1978….Bob Stinson
6….1965….Pat Corrales

Of course data prior to 1974 is incomplete.

Mike L
Mike L
7 years ago
Reply to  Doug

It’s not a good thing. Ellsbury is exactly the player that the Yankees should have understood they were signing, with a bit of age regression. 7.3 bWAR in two and a half years. Not at all bad, still useful, not in the least bit worth the commitment they made. Prior to that, he had a terrific 2011, and a good contract year in 2013. Plus two seasons where he couldn’t stay on the field, and two others with 3.0 and 2.8 bWAR respectively. Great salesmanship by Boras. Ellsbury has five seasons to go, with a buyout for a sixth. He’s… Read more »

no statistician but
no statistician but
7 years ago

Back to Danny Salazar:

Tuesday he went according to his recent pattern in some ways, at least, holding the opposition scoreless until the middle innings before losing it, on this occasion giving up 3 runs in the sixth and seventh. Only one walk, 8 hits, 104 pitch count. The Tribe gave him his normal six+ runs and he’s regained his league lead in ERA and maintained his lead in WAR.

bstar
7 years ago

nsb, there’s a Tigers rookie pitcher named Michael Fulmer nipping at Salazar’s heels for the AL WAR lead. He’s 9-2 with a 2.13 ERA, 197 ERA+, and 3.7 WAR (only 0.2 behind Salazar) in only 84 innings. He should qualify for the ERA title sometime in his next two or three starts. He pitches Friday and will pass Salazar for the pitching WAR lead with a good start against the Chisox.

bstar
7 years ago

Ichiro just got his second hit of the night so he’s only 4 hits away from 3000. I’d say it’s a safe bet he will get starts until it happens as the Marlins just opened a 10-game homestand and will want it to happen in front of their fanbase.