The Vicious Circle – Home Runs, Strikeouts and Disappearing Baserunners

The Astros and Blue Jays began this month with a four game series in Houston that produced a total of just 15 runs for the two teams, but a bumper crop of 105 strikeouts. The latter figure and Toronto’s share (61 whiffs) are both reported to be records for a four game series. Despite all the swings and misses, Toronto took the set 3 games to 1, outscoring Houston 10-5, with seven of those ten runs coming off solo home runs.

That series is an extreme example but an instructive one on the growing trend in baseball of games dominated by home runs and strikeouts, two of the “three true outcomes” or TTOs (the third is walks), so named because the defense can do nothing to affect the results of those events.

The dominance of home runs and strikeouts is illustrated in the chart below showing trends since 1961.

Baserunners, HR and Strikeouts since 1961

The two lines are strikeouts (orange) and runs from home runs (blue), both plotted against the left axis. Striekouts were below 15% of PAs as recently as 1992 but are now above 20% and increasing at a roughly constant rate since 2005. That’s one third more strikeouts than just 25 seasons ago, and no sign that the trend is abating.

More strikeouts means fewer balls in play and fewer baserunners, thus placing greater reliance on the home run for scoring runs. The percentage of runs that scored via the home run was below 30% as recently as 1992 but has now crept above 40% for the first time, again a one-third increase in just 25 years (Note: these data are shown only since 1961 because I relied on the Batting Event database from Baseball-Reference.com to calculate the percentage of runs scored via home runs; those data show the baserunner state for every home run hit back to 1974 and almost every one back to 1959, with only the 1968 season having missing home runs amounting to more than one half of one percent, with 0.6% missing in that season).

The fewer baserunners resulting from more homers and strikeouts is illustrated by the green bars, indicating the ratio of total PAs to PAs producing baserunners. I’ve calculated this as PA divided by the sum of hits, walks and HBPs less home runs, with the home runs subtracted because they remove baserunners instead of creating them. That metric is showing results not seen since the so-called “second dead ball era” of the mid-1960s, with ratios in recent seasons of more than 3.4 to 1 for total PAs to PAs producing baserunners.

Another illustration of these trends is shown in the chart below.

HR and BIP Since 1920The blue bars plotted against the left axis show a steady reduction in plate appearances producing balls in play (which include home runs, in this illustration). At the beginning of the live ball era, balls in play resulted in more than 90% of PAs excluding walks and HBPs, a figure which, outside of the 1970s, has dropped consistently since then. Today, that number has fallen below 77% for the first time and has been dropping at a steeper rate since 2005 than at any previous time.

The two lines on the chart, both plotted against the right axis, show the increasing emphasis on home runs, at new record highs, both as a percentage of balls in play (orange) and as a percentage of hits (green).

I called these trends a vicious circle because they tend to feed off each other, something like:

  1. With fewer baserunners, more emphasis is placed on home runs for scoring
  2. Batters trying to hit more home runs strike out more
  3. With more strikeouts come fewer baserunners
  4. And, back to 1.

So, what might stop the vicious circle? Time will tell but, on the premise that success breeds imitation, it may help that the last two World Series champs have countered these trends and won by putting the ball in play and keeping pressure on the defense. The other factor may be that there’s been something of an equilibrium reached on the batter vs. pitcher level as shown below.

Pitches and Swings Outside Zone since 2002

These data are provided by FanGraphs.com and are derived from PitchFX data, the system that’s been in place since 2002 tracking (among other things) whether pitches are located in the strike zone. Pitchers are no dummies; with batters swinging for the fences, pitchers are keeping more of their pitches out of the strike zone, shown by the blue line. More than half of pitches were located in the strike zone until 2008 but that number has dropped to a fairly constant 45% since 2011.

With fewer pitches in the zone, batters are venturing outside the strike zone to take their cuts. The orange line shows batters swinging at only 20% of pitches outside the zone in 2004 but increasing that proportion to 30% (a 50% increase) by 2011. Similarly, the percentage of swings at pitches outside the strike zone (green bars) was below 25% before 2007 but has been above 35% since 2011.

The equilibrium I alluded to is that all three of these metrics have more or less held constant since 2011, suggesting that a limit may have been reached on how undisciplined hitters will become and, therefore, on how stingy pitchers can afford to be in locating their pitches in the strike zone. If that’s the case, what might tip the balance and start seeing these trends move the other way is defensive shifting. While hitters may be reluctant to depart from their natural swing tendencies, the lure of a third to half of the field being left undefended could become enough of an enticement for batters to cut down on their swings and try to “hit ’em where they ain’t”. Or, at least, one might hope so.

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David P
David P
7 years ago

A bit off topic but last night Jose Ramirez of the Indians became just the 10th player to have a game with 3+ steals and 2+ XBHs, with at least one of the XBHs being a home run. I don’t have the complete list of players who have pulled off the feat but I have identified Jimmy Rollins, Frankie Frisch, Ben Chapman, and Don Kolloway. Kolloway’s game is perhaps the most interesting as he stole 4 bases while going 3-5 with 2 home runs. Kolloway scored a run in the 9th inning by getting on via forceout and then proceeding… Read more »

Richard Chester
Richard Chester
7 years ago

The other 5 players are A-Rod, Rickey Henderson, Bobby Bonds, Vince Coleman and Greg Gagne.

David P
David P
7 years ago

Thanks Richard! I appreciate the info. Seems like Ramirez is in good company.

Hartvig
Hartvig
7 years ago

I am endlessly amazed that GM’s & managers haven’t done more to address this. It seems that the only players not swinging from their heels nowadays are the Alfredo Griffin/Ozzie Guillen types who never saw a pitch they didn’t like. There must be some players out there with a decent batting eye & enough speed that could be taught to bunt & chop at the ball and get on base. Wouldn’t getting on base an additional 40 to 60 times a year or more- especially if you have enough speed to steal your way into scoring position- way more than… Read more »

Doug
Doug
7 years ago
Reply to  Hartvig

It would be a refreshing change to see more Altuve types, even if they only hit .275. If they could work a few more walks than Altuve to compensate for the lower BA, better still.

no statistician but
no statistician but
7 years ago

Doug: You haven’t graphed bases on balls in your charts, but they’re down, too, in the last few years, not as disproportionately as Ks are up, but the connection to swinging at balls outside the strike zone is obvious. It’s not just going with the pitch and making contact that’s needed, but taking bad pitches to force the pitcher’s hand with the threat or the actuality of walking the batter. Think a new generation of Eddies—Lake, Stanky, Joost, Yost. All this swinging away is really indicative of one more thing—batters are on the defensive. Putting pitchers on the defensive more… Read more »

Doug
Doug
7 years ago

Good observation, nsb. Batters do seem to be intimidated – how else can you account for continuing to swing at breaking balls in the dirt? If you’re swinging for the fences against a hard thrower, you’ve got to start your swing early, so I get why you may be committed to the swing before you recognize the pitch. But when you’re behind in the count and you know the pitcher is probably going to waste one or two, wouldn’t you say to yourself “I’m not likely to get a pitch I can hit hard until I get back even in… Read more »

Mike L
Mike L
7 years ago
Reply to  Doug

It may be that managerial/front office concepts haven’t quite caught up with changes occurring on the field. It’s kind of like the flip side of the early stages of Moneyball, where market inefficiencies were exploited until they were widely recognized. Players are going to continue to do what was valued in the past, until someone tells them to do it differently. Dial it back ten years, and grinding out at-bats, running up pitch counts, and waiting for something you could smash, even at the cost of K’s, put runs on the board. “Little ball” was frowned on–and certainly less valued… Read more »

David P
David P
7 years ago
Reply to  Mike L

Hardball Times has an excellent article on how the strike zone has changed over the past several years, how pitchers and batters have responded to the changes, and the impact of the changes on walks, strikeouts, and run scoring. Definitely worth reading!

http://www.hardballtimes.com/the-strike-zone-during-the-pitchfx-era/

no statistician but
no statistician but
7 years ago
Reply to  Doug

I’ve probably written this here before at one time or another, but back in my long league ball career as a youth, there was nothing so humiliating to me and most of my teammates as striking out. I think I learned to take bad pitches and try to make contact just to avoid the trek back to the dugout after whiffing. Sometimes I’d lay down a bunt for a hit—does anyone do that anymore? Do they even teach bunting for a hit anymore? As a strategy against a shifted defense—as Hartvig mentions above— it’s a great corrective, a fan pleaser,… Read more »

David P
David P
7 years ago

NSB – You might be interested in this bunt from Rajai Davis. With runners on first and second and no one out, the Nats run a wheel play with the SS going towards third and both corner IFers charging towards home. Davis responds by bunting the ball over the third baseman’s head, into no-man’s land. Base hit, bases-loaded, no one out.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b2B6YtLiUwY

JDV
JDV
7 years ago

I’m really pleased to see you address this subject. Apparently, it’s far more prevalent than I even suspected. I’m a lifelong Orioles fan, and I am bored to tears with this year’s team, despite their success in the standings thus far. I’ll bet they lead the ML in scoreless innings after getting the first two men on base. Maddening…and boring! I will migrate to any game I can find where they’re actually playing baseball, rather than beer-league softball. To me, the game is in serious trouble right now, and this is among the top reasons. I agree with the comments… Read more »

Voomo Zanzibar
Voomo Zanzibar
7 years ago
Reply to  JDV

The Orange Birds have 14 steals (9 CS).
Dead last, by a wide margin (Seattle is next-last with 34)

Triples?
4
Next to last place team has 14.

There are 25 individual players in the AL who have as many 3-baggers as the Baltimore team.

Voomo Zanzibar
Voomo Zanzibar
7 years ago
Reply to  Voomo Zanzibar

And yeah, they are boring to rest of us, too.
I’m a Yankees fan
(delighted to see a re-building
process finally happening
(give all the vets away,
just give ’em away,
Ellsbury and McCann,
c’mon Seattle and Houston, you need those guys)

…and I’d much rather see Boston go all the way than see the Orioles make it at all. The Sox are fun.