The 2016 playoff matchups are set, kicking off in Toronto on Tuesday. As I did last season, I’d like to use my Playoff Runs model to predict the playoffs, but I need a little help from the readers here.
In brief, the Playoff Runs model assigns certain numbers of innings pitched, plate appearances, and defensive innings to every player on each playoff team based on a defined, standardized role, and credits players with their seasonal Runs Above Replacement times those expected innings/plate appearances.
One of the challenges with building this model is guessing which 250 players will make playoff rosters and how ten managers will deploy them. I recognize that I can’t expect to shoehorn 25 players on every team into roles like “Middle Reliever 3”, “Utility Infielder”, and “Pinch Runner” and assume that managers will behave accordingly, but with a certain level of integrity, I believe this system can make well-informed predictions.
Here’s where you come in. The chart below lists every playoff team’s roster as I’m guessing it will be composed. Please speak up in the comments if you know a player is injured, not likely to make the postseason roster, or likely to play a different role (rotation order matters). I may not update everything (I recognize the Cubs are more likely to put Miguel Montero on the roster, for example, than Trevor Cahill, but I can’t create a “Catcher3” position and try to assign runs across ten teams in a standardized way), but I’ll check in often before Tuesday night, integrate your inputs, and come back with a longer post explaining my predictions.
[table id=317 /]
Thanks for your help. We’ll chat again soon.
On the bluejays, I would say Grilli makes it over Tepera for sure but other than that it’s good
Thanks, Brett. I’ll work that in.
For the Indians:
Almonte’s not eligible for the post reason due to his PED’s suspension. Put Chisenall in at RF and Michael Martinez (ugh!) as the Util If.
Manship over Crockett.
Gomes will likely be the second catcher over Gimenez . He played in the last three games (one start, two as a defensive replacement). No reason to bring him back from injury at the end of the season unless you’re planning on using him during the playoffs.
I could see Shawn Armstrong and/or Ryan Merritt making it over Cody Anderson and/or Danny Salazar, though I honestly have no clue who will get the last two pitcher spots.
Oh, one other thing. Napoli should be at 1st, Santana at DH/PH.
I had no idea about Almonte’s ineligibility or Gomes’s return. I kept Manship off because his RAR/IP are horrendous, but if that’s Tito’s plan, I’ll fix it. And I don’t know why I switched Nap and Santana. Thanks.
No way would someone who’s really big on player loyalty like Francona leave Manship off. He’s basically been with the team non-stop since June of last year whereas Crockett has been back and forth between Cleveland and the minors.
Plus, just look at their usage patterns in Sept/Oct: Manship 9 games, 8 IP vs Crockett 5 games, 1 2/3 IP.
I could see Crockett over Anderson but definitely not over Manship.
Well Gomes did indeed make the roster but so did Gimenez as the Indians opted to go with 3 catchers. The guy left off was Salazar, as the Indians didn’t feel he was ready. (and Manship did make it over Crockett).
David P. :
You’re not feeling the “Michael Martinez is Gil McDougald” thing, huh? What that guy is doing playing for anybody but the Elm Street Tigers is a mystery to me…..
Paul E – Indians fan live in mortal fear that Tito will decide to use Martinez at some critical juncture of the playoffs. Oddly, we actually sold him to the Red Sox for a while this season when we had a roster space crunch. But Tito reacquired him as soon as he could. Would definitely be some sort of weird karma if Martinez ended up deciding the Indians-Red Sox series.
For the Mets, I think you should swap Bruce and Conforto, which obviously makes a bigger difference in the NL. Bruce had about twice as much Sept/Oct playing time as Conforto and he even seemed to pull out of his slump late.
This is one of the traps of the system. If the Mets play in the World Series, they get the option of not putting Jay Bruce in the field. That’s their optimal roster construction. But NL rules dictate that they don’t get to use that construction unless they pull off a few upsets. Part of standardizing roles within Playoff Runs is considering DH and primary PH the same position. So I modeled the Mets in a way that maximized their Playoff Runs despite the likelihood that they have to keep running Bruce out there. I’ll probably make this fix, and it shouldn’t cost the Mets much, but I doubt it will help their score.
AL:
WC … Toronto over Baltimore …because clearly Toronto and Texas have to play each other again.
Boston dispatches Cleveland with ease, and rests while the Jays and Rangers fight to the death. Toronto wins the series again, battle-hardened but weary.
Boston defeats Toronto for the pennant.
________________
NL:
WC … San Francisco over the Metropoliticos
Washington vs L.A. … Dodgers win.
Clearly, the Cubbies will get through the first round… except… it is an even-year. Giants can’t be beat. That’s right. I’m going there. Giants over the Cubs.
SF vs LA … the even-year-magic continues….
Giants win the pennant!
Giants win the pennant!
Giants win the pennant!
_________________________
World Series:
Boston vs San Francisco … 4 in 7 years for the Giants.
The leap-year is always the hardest one to win. Throws off the even-year mathematical beauty — golden ratio in the mollusk-type stuff. But..I’m with you!
Dammit.
I made this pick because I wanted to be wrong about my prediction from August 1st… that the Yankees had just given Cleveland and Chicago the pennants by selling Miller and Chapman.
Well, at least I didnt put money on it.
Bryan, maybe you have heard something different but I’m not sure Arrieta is going to be the Cubs #1 on Friday, what with his janky fastball command since June or so. I think Lester will be 1, not sure about Hendricks/Arrieta after that.
Arrieta:
First 14 starts:
93 IP
57 H
31 BB
101 SO
1.74 ERA
11-1 W/L
Last 17 starts:
104 IP
81 H
45 BB
89 SO
4.31 ERA
7-7 W/L
I hadn’t heard anything about the Cubs’ rotation order. This is exactly the type of feedback I’m looking for.
Toronto has made the post-season in consecutive years with Roberto Osuna, still aged only 21, as its closer. He leads by pretty comfortable margins in many categories (Saves, Save%, ERA, ERA+, BB/9, SO/9, SO/BB) for relief pitchers (80% of appearances) through age 21.
Generated 10/3/2016.
I’m shocked that the Jays are choosing Stroman over Liriano.
Last week they both faced the O’s.
Liriano, 10 K’s and no ER.
Stroman, 3 K’s and 4 ER.
Liriano also gave up 0 ER in his previous start. And has a 2.92 ERA since the Jays aquired him.
And the Orioles were the worst hitting team in the league this year against left handed pitching.
So what is Gibbons thinking? Liriano seems like the clear choice. And based on his recent performance, he should be our 4th starter, and Stroman should be replacing Benoit in the pen.
Hi, Jimbo. Are you shocked at news you’ve heard about Gibbons’s choices, or about what you’re reading here? I’m speculating above and asking for input, so if you know anything different, I’d be happy to hear it. I’ll poke around tonight and see what I learn. Thanks.
Now I see that Stroman is the pick. Based on when they last pitched, I’m guessing Estrada, Sanchez, and Happ would line up in that order in a potential ALDS, but it could just as easily be the reverse. Their RAR/IP numbers are close enough as to not make much difference (Sanchez tops the pack, followed by Stroman, Estrada, and Happ, with Liriano slotting in behind most of the relievers).
As you say, could be Happ, Sanchez and Estrada in any order. Gibbons hasn’t named his game 1 starter yet, but I’m guessing Happ, Sanchez, Estrada, Stroman, Sanchez for the 5 games which makes Happ or Sanchez available to start the ALCS should Toronto clinch early.
I’m with you, Jimbo. But, it worked out anyway – Stroman with a good start and Liriano picking up the win to become the first with two WC wins (Bumgarner will be vying to join Liriano tonight).
For the Mets, Flores is injured and will not make the roster. And I’m pretty sure that Rene Rivera will make the roster over Plawecki…in fact, he may even start over d’Arnaud.
Got it. Exit Plawecki and Flores, enter Rivera and Kelly Johnson. Thanks.
Liberatore is out for the Dodgers. Ethier and Toles made the post season roster–suspect Segedin and Hernandez will not make it.