Probably will be tough to top the Manny Machado deal as the most significant of the trade deadline season. Machado could help the Dodgers win it all this season. Or, he may not, and he may not be back next year. So, we’ll just have to wait to see how it works out. But, we can look back at some deadline deals of the past, those that worked out and the many that didn’t. More after the jump.
The rest of this post is courtesy of yardbarker.com. On their site are a couple of lists, one titled “The most lopsided MLB trade deadline deals“, and the other “Every MLB team’s best and worst deadline trade from the last 25 years” (one curious thing is that some of the worst trades in the second list didn’t make the first, and vice versa).
I’ll let you take a gander at those lists and then ask you to weigh in with your thoughts. Have the authors got it right, or are there other trades that belong on those lists? Have fun on this trip down memory lane.
The second list explicitly is limited to the last 25 years, but the first is ridiculous in that it ostensibly covers the history of baseball but actually has only two trades before the late 80s. No Frank Robinson for Milt Pappas or Nolan Ryan plus for Jim Fregosi? Not good.
On the other list, given how good Fulmer has been, I can’t call that the best Mets deal. Getting Syndergaard plus for RA Dickey beats it, off the top of my head. Or getting Piazza for Preston Wilson and a couple prospects.
The first list is odd indeed: perhaps they began compiling it thirty years ago and just finished it two days ago, forgetting to change the title to “the last 55 years.” Even so, the theme is trade-deadline trades, so the Robinson/Pappas and Ryan/Fregosi adventures wouldn’t be included, since they were off-season swaps.
I’m no expert on these trades. I’ve never tracked them closely, and one reason why is they are most frequently trades of long-term for short-term benefits. For example, the first list cites the ’87 Detroit trade for Doyle Alexander in exchange for John Smoltz, which I do recall. That swap sent a promising 20 year-old mound prospect who had yet to harness that promise in the minors to Atlanta in exchange for a 36 year-old pitcher, whose task was to help Detroit get to the ’87 postseason. You couldn’t ask more than Alexander delivered on that task: a 9-0 record in 11 starts (he also had one mediocre start, and an 11-inning 76 Game Score no-decision) with a 279 ERA+, and the Tigers took a closely fought division race by two games. Best stretch of Alexander’s career, and, in terms of the purpose of the trade, the Tigers got more than they had any right to hope for. Alexander’s final two seasons were a predictable decline and career end. Meanwhile, Atlanta was trading for the future and wound up winning the lottery. So that was a trade where both teams got what they hoped for: a short-term benefit and a long-term benefit. But the website measures success only in terms of the latter, so naturally the trade will look lopsided.
D’oh…my own fault for not reading the titles! Still, there must have been some other notable lopsided deadline deals before the mid-80s.
Prior to 1986 the trading deadline was in June from 1923 onward. Before that there wan’t one. To get a better picture of late season acquisitions prior to 1986—whether they were successes or duds—would take a study of waivers. As a sub point: it was very unlikely for a player in earlier times to go from one league to another except on waivers, often mid- or late-season. If I’m remembering correctly, a team might want to unload a player for a particular reason but didn’t want him to go to a competing team. The word would go out that the waiver announcement would be withdrawn if anyone in the league put in a claim, which then would—or wouldn’t—act to clear the way for a deal of some kind with a team in the other league. Notable waiver deals of this type, if I’m not mistaken, include Bobo Newsom’s move to the Dodgers late in 1942 and Sal Maglie’s shift to the Yankees in 1957.
There’s an interesting history to the creation of the trading deadline in 1923, which nsb mentions.
On July 23, 1922, the NY Yankees, in a tight race with the Browns, who had been perennial doormats for two decades, for the umpteenth time since 1920, tapped the lowly Boston Red Sox and grabbed some key players in an unequal trade. St. Louis was outraged that a wealthy team could simply call in reserves in this way to win the pennant against a budget-strapped club that had reared its own talent.
Exactly one week later, the NY Giants, in a tight race with the Cardinals, who had been perennial doormats for two decades, grabbed a key pitcher from the lowly Boston Braves. St. Louis was outraged that a wealthy team could simply call in reserves in this way to win the pennant against a budget-strapped club that had reared its own talent.
The New York teams went on to win both pennants in ’22, and this deja vu spectacle created a perfect storm of outrage. The trading deadline was imposed before the following season in response. It’s a little ironic that the deadline was later moved to july 31, since both the 1922 trades would have been permissible under that rule.
Also ironic is that the perception of those trades (from the St. Louis standpoint) is much more impactful than the actual trades. In the Yankees/BoSox trade, the centerpiece for the Yankees was 25 year old 3B Joe Dugan. He did become their third baseman for the rest of that year plus a few after that (he was a member of Murderer’s Row in ’27). However, he was always a good field/no hit third sacker, and while I don’t doubt he was a defensive upgrade for the Yankees in 1922, the player he replaced was a future HOFer (albeit a long in the tooth Frank Baker) who still was a better hitter than him. The other player the Yankees got was Elmer Smith, who had been a good hitting Right fielder for the Indians in years past and was having a decent season with the BoSox. With the Yankees, however, there was little use for a corner outfielder and few ABs came his way. He had a 45 OPS+ in 31 plate appearances. The Yankees gave up a couple of semi regulars, a light hitting shortstop and a player to be named later, who turned out to be Lefty O’Doul, who never did anything with the BoSox, but did win a batting title with the Phillies in 1929.
As for the Braves/Giants trade, the “impact” pitcher they received was Hugh McQuillen, who never had an ERA+ for a season over 95 prior to the trade, but did manage to pitch decently for the Giants. In 15 starts he went 6-5 with a 3.82 ERA (ERA+ of 106). He also won a WS game that year. One would presume that the player he replaced in the rotation was Fred Toney, who was one of the pitchers traded for him. Toney appears to have been hurt at some point before the trade and never pitched for the Braves (he did pitch the next year for the Cardinals and then retired). The other players the Braves got were: Larry Benton, who had yet to pitch in the Majors for the Giants. He debuted for the Braves in 1923 and slowly developed into a pretty good pitcher, good enough that McGraw traded back for him 1927 just in time for him to lead the league in wins and complete games in 1928; and Harry Hulihan, who also had never pitched in the Major Leagues. He did start 7 games that year for the Braves and pitched OK (3.15 ERA in 40 IP), but never pitched again in the bigs. I would suggest the Cardinals had a better complaint than the Browns, but McQuillen was never more than an end of the rotation starter and pitched that way for his time with the Giants in 1922.
In the first list, I have a real problem with two of the selections. The aforementioned Alexander-Smoltz deal, as well as its close cousin, the Randy Johnson-Freddy Garcia deal. I don’t understand what’s wrong with either of these deals. Both teams got EXACTLY what they wanted out of it. The Alexander-Smoltz deal is better remembered, I think, but I was 11 years old in the summer of 1998, so I remember that deal clearly. The Astros wound up winning the Central by a lot… but at the deadline, they were only up 2.5 on the Cubs, and they were behind both San Diego and Atlanta. Wanting to avoid playing on the road and looking for pitching help to bolster a powerful lineup, they traded for Johnson and got what they wanted. The M’s set themselves up VERY nicely for their 116-win squad in 2001. In what way was this lopsided? SO confusing when both get what they want!
Also, as a Brewers fan, I have to say I’m glad they remembered the Richie Sexson trade in the second link. That WAS a great deal for the Crew. (Fun fact: in 2001, Richie Sexson struck out 178 times and didn’t lead the TEAM; SS Jose Hernandez made a run at Bobby Bonds’ mark, only to come up short with 185.) Since then the Sexson trade has been overshadowed by the acquisition of CC Sabathia in 2008. The Sabathia trade was a rental, so there’s an argument that it wasn’t as good as the Sexson trade, since Richie stayed 2 more years in Milwaukee (and then was used to basically acquire most of the team that became competitive in ’07 and won the Wild Card in ’08). However, the Sabathia rental was truly amazing; better than the aforementioned Randy Johnson rental for the ‘Stros. Sabathia, alas, doesn’t really count for the purposes of this list, because that trade occurred on the 7th of July, not at the deadline – a move which SHOCKED baseball people, because Milwaukee (an unlikely team) swooped in before the sharks even started circling. It was an impressive move. Also, before writing this, I had never been struck by the fact that, for whatever weird reason, the two BEST trades in Brewers history both hosed the same team – Cleveland. Weird.
You could say as much about the other RJ trade, going to the Mariners for Mark Langston. Both teams got what they wanted (I don’t think the Expos seriously believed they had a shot at resigning Langston after the season) – it just didn’t work out for the Expos despite Langston delivering the goods. The Mariners also knew they weren’t going to resign Langston, so took a flyer on a raw talent who couldn’t locate the plate, a flaw most scouts probably suspected a 6’10” hurler couldn’t correct. Happily for Seattle, RJ proved those observers wrong.
I’d hardly say we got hosed in the Sabathia deal – we traded a guy that was going to be a FA for Michael’s Brantley 20 WAR career with the Tribe. In 2011, sure, it looked like we got hosed – same could be said of the Lee deal with the Phillies. But looking back now, they’re classic win-win trades. The Crew got an amazing second-half rental that helped them make the playoffs. The Indians got a franchise cornerstone. With Lee, the Phillies got a Cy Young caliber pitcher (and complete postseason stud in 2009) for a half-season rental, and the relationship they built allowed them to sign him two years later in FA. The Indians got a rotation cornerstone who’s given us 18.1 WAR and who is still under team control for two more years (team options, and not cheap ones, but still, controlled years). Both trades just evolved oddly – the big fish in both deals floundered (LaPorta was a Mansfield-sized bust, and Knapp had injuries keeping him from ever making the show), but one of the complementary guys in each trade became a star.
Now the Sexson deal was a loss. But I don’t think it’s our worst ever. Wickman was a very serviceable closer for 4 1/2 seasons or so (he missed one full season to injury). Until Cody Allen passed him, he was the franchise saves leader. And with the Indians still understandably in win now mode (five fantastic seasons in a row with no rings to show for it and a window that seemed to be closing), they made some pretty disastrous short term moves – Giles for RIncon and Burnitz for Seitzer come to mind (some would say Casey for Burba, but Casey was hopelessly blocked and Burba had some decent years). For the year I think it hurt us – Wickman was good, but Bere and Woodard were awful, and the Indians lost the WC by 1 game. Of course, everyone we plugged into the rotation besides Finley, Colon and Burba was awful, hence the need for the trade in the first place (we employed 34 pitchers that season IIRC) – the Indians in 1999 watched a 1,000 run offense lose in the first round. Of course, they ran into a HoF buzzsaw named Pedro, but the message was clear – this team had enough offense (and no offense, no matter how good, is immune to being shut out), and if you were going to make marginal improvements, it had to be on the pitching or defense side. Having Sexson’s Milwaukee years likely wouldn’t have made much of a difference to the Indians – they indeed had enough offense in 2001, winning the division for the sixth time in seven years and losing to a 116 win club in the ALDS. They still would have had to become sellers and rebuild after it became obvious that their window was up (the Roberto Alomar deal pre-2002 was the first salvo, with the Colon trade being the official white flag), and Sexson was going to do anything but be the lone All-Star rep for a team that was in for a couple painful seasons. However, he may have had more trade value going into this walk year as a rental than he did as a young player in 2000 who was in the middle of a bit of a downswing (he was a 30/100 guy in 1999 but his peripheral numbers weren’t stellar). So we lost out on a potentially better long term trade.
As for what *was* our worst deadline trade, I’ll have to think about it. Ubaldo for Pomeranz and White might be up there, but the entire 2011 team collapsed, not just Ubaldo – one pitcher going 4-4 over 11 mediocre starts doesn’t take a team from 2.5 games back at the deadline to 15 games back at year’s end.
Hilarious sidenote about the Bob Wickman trade, which you wouldn’t know (as an Indians fan). The Brewers promotional schedule included a Bob Wickman… bobblehead? poster? can’t remember… right after the All-Star Game, at which point we’d already traded him – our only All-Star that season. That felt like the most “Brewers” thing of all-time. It did work out, though, so it’s tough to complain about it too much.
CC:
The abbreviation FA means something far different from free agent where I come from.
Sometimes I feel the world has passed me by.
Well of course. It’s a long long way to run.
By some definitions, CC was a FA long before the 2008 off-season. Though I’m not exactly svelte myself.
These critical tidbits are the things that keep me returning to HHS. It’s when I know I’m among my own.
One fun aspect of looking at the lopsided moves is seeing where some future stars started their professional careers – Jeff Bagwell with the Red Sox, Corey Kluber with the Padres, Asdrubal Cabrera with the Mariners, Brandon Phillips with the Expos. Fans who follow a team closely will know their top prospects, but for most fans, their awareness of players starts with their appearance in the majors.
Based on their repeated appearances in the lopsided list, would seem that the Mariners, Rangers, Pirates and Expos had had the most misfortune with deadline deals.
and yet the best-and-worst list only looked at the Washington Nationals.
Yeah, Colon for Sizemore, Lee and Phillips isn’t just the Expos worst deadline trade, it’s on the short list of worst deadline deals in MLB history. A quick glance at team controlled seasons (including arb years) looks like the Expos got 2.4 WAR of Colon for ~55 WAR of the young trio they shipped away. Of course, they had a complicated ownership situation at the time.
For those who would like to try their sleuthing skills, there is a new quiz posted.
http://www.highheatstats.com/player-stats-quiz/quiz-triple-threats/
An extra clue is that the active player who may next join the quiz players is featured in the Most Lopsided Trades list.
The 1983 White Sox did so well with their Tony Bernazard for Julio Cruz trade that in 1984, they traded two players to be named later (Kevin Hickey, Doug Drabek) for Roy Smalley.
One thing to consider is how likely a trade is to backfire – some of these very bad trades (or very good, from the prospective of the winners), were certainly hard to see coming, Kluber wasn’t a highly rated prospect. In 2010, Kluber had come off a pretty rough 2009 season. In 2010, he looked better in AA, but at 24, he wasn’t young for the league. I think the Padres should have realized there was a greater than 50/50 shot that Kluber would be a useful MLB starter. But the current run he’s had? It’s impossible to project that from his MiLB track record.
Look at, for a contrast, the Colon deal. I think given their ages the Expos should have concluded that all three had better than 50/50 shots of being above-average regulars and all three had some level of star potential. Phillips for sure, as a highly touted prospect who was doing quite well in a league where he was well younger than the average player. Sizemore had very good numbers and only lacked power – at age 19/20, it’s obviously tough to predict power potential, but given his athleticism I think he had a pretty good chance of being a very good player. Lee similarly wasn’t a huge prospect like Phillips but looked very impressive in the minors. Based only on existing track record and not exact knowledge of the future, the Expos still should have seen a disaster looming.
Interesting game in Cincinnati tonight. The Cards put 26 year-old Daniel Poncedeleon on the mound. It was his MLB debut. He pitched 7 innings of no-hit, no-run ball, walking three. With the score 1-0, the Cards pinch-hit for him in the top of the 8th. He’d thrown 116 pitches. Quite a debut, and quite a test for Mike Shildt in his second week of MLB managing. (Cincy just got a hit in the 8th, but did not score.)
You have to root for him to have a long career…..so some announcer can say “38 year old Daniel Pencedelon found the Fountain of Youth against the defending Champions, twirling 7 innings….
Not sure if I believe it, but according to P-I, that is the first such debut game (start with 7+ IP, H=0, R=0) since at least 1908 (I suppose it’s because in the old days, the pitcher would stay in until he lost the no-hit bid). Bobo Holloman famously twirled a no-hitter in his first career start, but it wasn’t his first game.
It’s also the first time since 2001 (and 22nd since 1988) that a pitcher has thrown 115+ pitches in a 7+ IP debut.
Poncedeleon’s start is easily the longest of only four without a hit or run in a career debut. The others are Walter Anderson (3 IP), Tim Leary (2) and Lefty Schegg (0.1).
Cesar Tovar played one inning at each position on Sep 22, 1968, beginning the game as the starting pitcher. He completed his inning without allowing a hit or run. It was the first pitching game of Tovar’s career, but not his first major league game.
What in the world was up with that game where Lefty Schegg appeared? Schegg started the game for the Senators in his MLB debut, faced one batter, retired him, and was then himself retired to the bench in favor of relief pitcher Walter Johnson, who finished the game and won it. Meanwhile, Vean Gregg started for the Naps, faced one batter, walked him, and was relieved by rookie Bill Steen, who pitched through the seventh and lost. Gregg then started the 5.5-inning nightcap of the double-header and lost to Carl Cashion, who pitched a six-inning no-hitter.
Schegg’s career reached its final coda one week later, when, in his second appearance and swan song, he came on in relief and pitched 5 innings without allowing an earned run (according the game log, at least; his career stat line claims two earned runs appeared from somewhere). Unfortunately he does seem to have allowed five runs, earned or unearned, in his five innings — the same rate as the starter he relieved, who had allowed four runs in four innings: Carl Cashion.
Schegg is also distinguished by his perfect fielding record. In his two recorded chances he never failed to commit an error. Since he was 0 for 2 as a hitter, he may be the only MLB player ever to have identical batting and fielding records.
That is weird.
Since the second game was shortened, it might be inferred that weather was a factor that day. Possibly, there was an extended rain delay almost immediately after the game started, then after a brief resumption (enough time to finish the top of the first and start the bottom), play was again suspended for a lengthy interval. In a scenario like that, managers might not have wanted to bring back their starters (though, each having pitched to only one batter, it wouldn’t seem to be too much to ask, especially in that time).
The NYTimes has a story on Poncedeleon’s debut that somewhat dings the uniqueness of his accomplishment, although not technically. In Ross Stripling’s debut for the Dodgers two years ago, he pitched 7.1 innings of no-hit ball before being pulled, one out more than Poncedeleon. He was charged with a run, though, so he does not match the no-hit, no-run standard Poncedeleon set.
However, examining the game log of Stripling’s debut, what happened was that Stripling retired the first batter he faced in the 8th on a 1-2-count fly out, and then walked the Giants’ Angel Pagan on a 3-1 count. The Dodgers were leading 2-0. That’s when he was taken out, and the reason was that he’d reached a pitch count of 100. The decision was clearly not based on any performance problem: of the ten batters Stripling had faced before Pagan, he’d retired nine, and the one he’d allowed to reach on a walk was erased on a DP. He was in a groove when he was removed. Reliever Chris Hatcher promptly grooved a pitch and surrendered a two-run home run to the following batter and that’s why Stripling was charged with a run. Tough luck for Stripling. He contributed very little to the run he was charged with.
As a side note, I think it’s a sign of progress that the Times story links to the B-R Play Index to compare Stripling and Poncedeleon.
Poncedeleon’s minor league career is strange in that he’s made relatively few appearances over five years—injuries? At any rate, he was brought up from Memphis in the PCL, Memphis now being located on a Coast, I guess, even if it is the coast of the Mississippi.
Mike L beat me to the Fountain of Youth joke. Poncedeleon did pitch in the Florida League for a third of a season, when he was 23.
He did have an horrific injury while in the Minors — a batted ball to the head a year ago that required surgery.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/video/news/video-1732626/Video-Pitcher-Poncedeleon-struck-head-line-drive-2017.html
this link may work…..not off the frontal lobe; off the ear and temple
He’s a good shot to be the starting pitcher on the all explorer team, which is currently pretty weak. Right now it might be Colby Lewis then Mark Clark, with Dennis Cook closing? Oh, I suppose Mario Soto if he counts.
Carlos Balboa pitched in the Mexican League recently…..couldn’t find any Da Gama or Magellan or Columbus
Daniel Hudson in the bullpen, and Tim Hudson in the rotation.
Ariel Bolivar Jurado debuted in May for the Rangers.
David Thompson (explorer and cartographer of Western Canadian wilderness) was southpaw for the 1948-49 Senators, netting 2.4 career WAR in fewer than 150 IP.
Juan Pizarro was a pitcher from 1957 to 1974.
All Astronaut Team: Bob, Brad and 2 Eds Glenn, Lee, Marquis, and Marv Grissom, at least 9 different Carpenters, Geroge, Howard, Jack, Michael, Robert and Shawn Armstrong, a vast quantity of Coopers,
I’m preemptively hating the Yankees trade for Britton.
How many grade A relievers are too many. Maybe this makes sense if the Yanks are planning to swap some of their other relievers in another deal still to come?
Britton may not be grade A, and they gave up too much for him. Give the O”s credit for turning two expiring assets, Machado and Britton, into a lot of young players. I can’t imagine what Cashman’s next move might be. Yankees aren’t catching the Red Sox, and tossing younger talent seems foolish
Mike L:
” “Yankees aren’t catching the Red Sox, and tossing younger talent seems foolish””
All those grade A relievers will help in that one – game wild card versus Oakland or Seattle…. I guess
I guess. But Red Sox just picked up Eovaldi for not much.
I’ll bear this comment in mind when Jalen Beeks wins his second CYA.
a little off the beaten path here, but has anyone happened to notice that among corner outfielders with 1,370+ PA in their age 32-34 seasons, ALEX GORDON, KCR, HAS THE LOWEST OPS+ ( 75 !! ) OF ALL TIME ? (emphasis mine)
Gordon has really hit a wall. That age 32 season was the first of a four year $72M dollar deal; by the time his contract runs out next season, his OPS+ over the life of the contract may be less than the millions he will have pocketed.
And….I’m hating the Drury, McKinney for Happ trade. Cashman—what’s going on?
Well, the Yankees are in danger of their first decade without a pennant since the 1910’s, so I guess he’s throwing everything at the wall and seeing what sticks.
Excellent point. It is a crisis. But if they keep trading prospects for the old and infirm, we may have to bring Stump Merrill back to manage.
A lot of these deals fall into categories I think really don’t explain well what happened
1) A contender gets a piece that finishes out the year strong before leaving and the other team gets a prospect, with extremely limited or non-existent major league experience, that turns into a star. Why is this bad? A lot of times the contending team is not even in contention during these future star years that they “made the worst judgement calls” evaluating. Also, the guy they got leaving is about future seasons. Sometimes you would actually purposely give up a hall of famer in your minor league system for a shot at a title. What prospect would be too high for the ’08 Brewers to pay for Sabathia? Were they so good over the next few years anyway? Michael Brantley is really good. He might have been even better if he was healthy for much of the past decade. It’s still a total joke to compare Brantley’s entire Indians career to CC’s 2008 post-deadline season and it’s hard to view that deal as a bad move. Brantley’s 2014 and 2015 success wouldn’t have helped the Brewers who lost 174 games those years compared to the show Sabathia put on for a much better ’08 club.
2) The total careers of the players traded are kind of irrelevant. For example, trading for a player on an expiring contract and then re-signing him long-term where there are lots of productive years to come does not really matter in evaluating the trade. Cliff Lee, for example, was traded at the deadline in 2010 and then signed back with philly. Does philly get credit for the remainder of his career? If he had instead signed with Seattle after that season, does Seattle get credit for 11-14 as a part of the deadline acquisition? Neither should. The deal was about 2010 Cliff Lee because 2011 Cliff Lee was going to play wherever he wanted.
Hindsight is a difficult business already but I think you have to be fair to the situation. Factoring in player control and “going for it” value of WAR today vs WAR in the future is important.
Like, I don’t know how the 77-78 free agent market worked but Seaver’s value to the ’78-’82 Reds was because he stayed. If he didn’t have to stay in Cincy, why is that counted as the Mets doing something stupid in ’77 when they traded 20 of his starts away (a very nice 5.6 WAR) for 4 guys who’s totals exceed that. Is that the worst trade ever because Seaver pitched 5 good years AFTER all this for the Reds? The ’77 mets stunk, they didn’t miss Seaver that season. They would have stunk just as much with him as without him. For that matter they were going to stink ’78-’82 either way as well. 4 Prospects at least provided some hope compared to the maximum output of one guy on a team he was probably thankful to escape from.
Jose Ramirez now on pace for
48 HR
37 SB
Only seasons with 45+ HR and 30+ SB
49/33 … Larry Walker
46/41 … Alfonso Soriano
Voom,
OPS+ , age 23-25, 67% G @ 3B; 1901 – present, >/= 1,500 PA’s.
1 Dick Allen 165
2 Eddie Mathews 156
3 Jim Thome 154
4 Miguel Cabrera 146
5 Ron Santo 146
6 Gary Sheffield 145
7 Kris Bryant 142
8 David Wright 142
9 Home Run Baker 141
10 Jose Ramirez 140
Below, SB by the top twenty third-sackers in OPS+ for their age 23-25 seasons. Ramirez currently leads the AL in SB (27). He sure runs well for a fat guy……
1 Home Run Baker 79
2 David Wright 69
3 Jose Ramirez 66
4 Mike Schmidt 60
5 George Brett 58
6 Bill Bradley 47
7 Dick Allen 45
8 Bill Madlock 35
9 Troy Glaus 34
10 Gary Sheffield 34