Greetings, everyone! Dr. Doom here again.
Doug is generously letting me write awards-balloting posts again. So I’ll start with some discussion, and you can feel free to weigh in with your ballots in the comments. Rules are at the bottom of the post. More after the jump.
In the Junior Circuit, there are a lot of strong candidates. There’s a pretty strong argument that the 5-7 best players in baseball this year are all in the AL. So let’s start there. Mike Trout is continuing to be a wonder, but he also continues his recent trend of missing time. Two years in a row, he has been, per PA, the best hitter in the AL while playing above-average (and occasionally stellar) CF. Yet, once again, he missed substantial time. Also missing time was Mookie Betts who, when he played, had the argument that he was right up there with Trout. But it was neither of them, but rather Betts’ teammate J.D. Martinez that made a run at a Triple Crown, mashing all over Fenway. And speaking of mashing, no player in either league matched the power prowess of Khris (Don’t Call Me Chris) Davis, who clubbed nearly 50 home runs, many of them moon shots in the AL’s biggest ballpark. Davis’s teammate Matt Chapman combined power at the plate and stellar defense at the hot corner for an 8.2 WAR season. In Cleveland, Francisco Lindor and Jose Ramirez anchored the left side of the infield. with each scoring 100+ runs and compiling identical 7.9 WAR scores. In Houston, third baseman Alex Bregman had a breakout 30 HR, 100 RBI season while leading the league with 51 doubles, good for a 6.9 WAR total. Angel defensive whiz Andrelton Simmons garnered 6.2 WAR with a solid .292 BA, while becoming one of only three players to record more RBI than strikeouts for each of the past three seasons. In Seattle, Mitch Haniger showed that his 2017 rookie season was no fluke, topping 6 WAR with a 90 run/90 RBI season and almost 300 TB in one of the league’s toughest hitter’s parks. In the Bronx, rookie third baseman Miguel Andujar, replacing fan favorite Todd Frazier, struggled in the field but was a hit at bat with 27 HR, 47 doubles and “only” 97 strikeouts, while teammate Giancarlo Stanton put up typical Stanton-esque totals of 38 HR and 100 RBI to help fill the void when 2017 home run champ Aaron Judge lost significant time to injury.
In the Senior Circuit, Christian Yelich wowed in the second half, and it took an unbelievable Brett– or Yastrzemski-like final week (or two) to finally nab the WAR lead among position players from teammate Lorenzo Cain, who might have less baseball mileage on him than any 32-year-old in history (the Brewers were banking on that low mileage when they gave him a five-year deal this last off-season). Cain was decent with the bat, hovering right around a .400 OBP in a league in which only Joey Votto cleared that figure by any substantial margin. The rookies Ronald Acuña Jr. and Juan Soto made a splash. Bryce Harper was an absolute failure on balls in play (just a .281 BABIP), yet led the NL in walks and crept toward a .400 OBP in a 30-HR, 100-RBI season for the (perpetually) disappointing Nationals. His teammate Max Scherzer battled division-mates Jacob DeGrom and Aaron Nola for the title of the league’s best pitcher. Matt Carpenter was a surprise contender on the HR leaderboard. Paul Goldschmidt put up the exact same (MVP-type) season he’s had three years in a row. Nolan Arenado continued to rake in Colorado, smacking two homers on the final day to take the NL title. Javy Báez proved that a low OBP is no barrier to a fabulous season both in the field and the batter’s box, showing heretofore unseen power (more than 80 XBH this year, after a previous best under 50). And dozens of other players (Freddie Freeman, Jesus Aguilar, Trevor Story, Brian Anderson, Anthony Rendon, Max Muncy, Brandon Nimmo, Scooter Gennett, and SO MANY more) had seasons that could and maybe should earn them down-ballot votes. This one’s ridiculously hairy, so good luck with it!
Rules: Vote by making a comment below and numbering your choices with 1 being the MOST preferred candidate, and 10 being your LEAST preferred candidate of your ten choices. Please vote under only one screen name (I’m looking at you, RockInTheHall; it’s been five years, but I haven’t forgotten). Your ballots will be EXACTLY ten places for each award, just as the BBWAA does. Scoring will be 14-9-8-7-6-5-4-3-2-1, just as the BBWAA does. You may post all your ballots in the same comment, or you may vote in separate comments. You are not required to vote in all elections; only vote in the ones you would like to vote in. You may make vote changes, if the discussion so moves you. If you change your vote, please do so in a new comment, not as a reply to your original comment (it’s a lot easier to find new comments than replies to old ones). Please don’t vote strategically; we’re trying to get the best result, not to manipulate the vote totals based on what others have done. Voting will remain open about one week.
What does your comment about Lorenzo Cain s baseball mileage mean?
Cain didn’t start playing baseball – at all – until age 16. He literally apparently thought you were supposed to wear the glove on your throwing hand, so he grabbed a lefty glove on his first day of high school baseball. I (and others) hope this means his knees will hold up longer than other speed-reliant players, many of whom start logging hard outfield innings young, and often play upwards of a hundred games per year as amateurs.
Logging hard outfield innings? Hmmmm, I dunno. I played nine years of little league. And at least three hours a day of basketball as a teenager. I can’t recall ever being sore.
There’s probably truth to what you’re saying, but, he was an athletic kid. Whatever he was doing with his time before baseball probably put some wear on the wheels.
Let’s say ballots are due by Wednesday night, October 10, at 11:59:59 your local time. West Coasters, enjoy your 11th-hour advantage. (Ultimately, though, I probably won’t be checking until I get to work on Thursday morning, so that’s really the end time; point is, if you get it done Wednesday before you go to bed, it’s sure to be counted).
Lists? Everybody likes to make lists, right? :
1) Yelich
2) Baez
3) Story
4) Goldschmidt
5) Freeman
6) Carpenter
7) Arenado
8) Acuna
9) Albies
10) Aguilar
1) Betts
2) Bregman
3) K. Davis
4) JD Martinez
5) Trout
6) Ramirez
7) Lindor
8) Haniger
9) Hicks
10) Chapman – my concession to dWAR
At the All Star break, I thought Baez and Ramirez were locks for these awards. But, that’s why they play 162 (or 163). Could have gone with Andujar or even Gleyber Torres over Hicks but…..And, yeah, would have loved to give Soto a vote for making baseball interesting in DC.
Just curious: why no pitchers?
In the NL, the Phillies (Nola), Mets (deGrom), and Nationals (Scherzer) didn’t win anything and weren’t contending. I probably should have voted for Kyle Freeland? In the AL, there was an abundance/preponderance of “hitters” who slugged the ball and, in general, I’m not a big fan of the 6-inning starter. Let them try to win a Cy Young award
In my lifetime, off the top of my head,Mike Scott (1986), Dwight Gooden ’85, Bob Gibson ’68, Denny McLain ’68, Clemens ’86, Seaver ’69 and Koufax ’66 probably deserved MVP awards or at least very serious consideration. I mean, should we give Steve Carlton an MVP award in 1972 for going 27-10 for a team that won 59 games? Or, that same year, Gaylord Perry in the AL for a pretty bad Cleveland team?
Carlton finished 5th in the MVP. Had more than triple the WAR of Stargell, who got 3rd.
Stargell was 4th in WAR on his own team. Of course, WAR didn’t exist in 1972.
His 30 complete games are more than the last 7 NL leaders combined.
Voom,
Funny that you mention Stargell in 1972. I definitely thought he could have won the MVP award in ’71 or ’73
I agree with Paul’s reasoning that the changed role of starters makes them less competitive for the MVP, although I’ve always felt pitchers need to be equally considered in MVP ratings. But I also think, focusing here only on the 2018 NL, that there are significant differences among the leading MVP-pitcher (and Cy Young) candidates.
The four pitchers who top the NL total WAR charts are not all 6-inning starters. They range in IP/GS from a low of 6.1 to a high of 6.8. the latter really being a 7-inning starter. For me, there is a lot of difference between a 7-inning and a 6-inning starter.
………………………..IP……….IP/GS………..Ave.GSc……….8+IP……..6>IP Starts…….K/9
deGrom………..217……….6.8………………68……………….9…………..3………………….11.2
Freeland……….202……….6.1………………57……………….0…………..8……………………7.7
Nola……………..212……….6.4………………63……………….3…………..7……………………9.5
Scherzer……….221……….6.7………………66……………….5…………..3………………….12.2
Interesting how closely matched these guys are in IP, but Freeland is clearly the 6-inning pitcher Paul is thinking of, while deGrom and Scherzer were basically 7-inning pitchers.
deGrom had one anomalous start where he was pulled after a hitless first inning because he ran up a 45 pitch count: the Phillies hit 20 fouls that inning, and as deGrom was fresh off the DL, his manager was cautious. If that start is dropped, he becomes a true 7.0 IP/GS pitcher, and his record of 8+ IP in 9 of 31 other starts is closer to a traditional profile. A very unusual feature of deGrom’s record is that in his three sub-6IP starts, his ERA was 0.84, with zero unearned runs. Two were strong starts, Including one where he was pulled because of the injury that landed him on the DL, and the third the anomaly mentioned above. Scherzer’s three sub-6IP starts were more typically bad days: a combined 7.07 ERA plus three unearned runs. Freeland was lifted early mostly on bad days, but three times apparently for pitch count. Nola’s early showers were due to weak starts four times (pitch counts contributing several times), with some puzzling early endings with low counts and no problems in his performance.
All in all, I think deGrom and Scherzer differ significantly from Nola and Freeland on the issue that Paul raises: the degree of burden assumed in generating game outcomes. Neither of the former two played the role that we might traditionally expect of a pitcher-MVP, though they were significantly closer than the others.
However, Scherzer foremost and deGrom next represent examples of pitchers whose “workhorse” profiles may suffer because of their high K/9 rates, which seem to have gotten them into pitch-count trouble and lowered their IP/GS rates. When we think of great workhorse pitcher-MVPs prior to the 1990s, none of them had a K/9 rate as high as Scherzer’s, and even deGrom 2018 is 32nd on the all-time list (Nolan Ryan’s best is only ten slots higher — of course Ryan was investing almost as many pitches in BBs). Compare the K/9 rates of the three pitcher-MVPs of the 1960s “Golden Era of the Pitcher”: Koufax ’63: 8.9; Gibson ’68: 7.9; McClain ’68: 7.5. These guys were 8-9-inning pitchers who delivered huge numbers of innings — they all earned their MVPs and their performances are still famous — but their high-K pitch-count burdens were in the Freeland-Nola range; nothing like what Scherzer and deGrom face.
In other words, for some members of the pitching elite, the reduction of their role from CG workhorses to 7-inning pitchers correlates with a raised pitch-count burden in today’s exceptional high-SO environment. This would definitely not apply strongly to Freeland (though his K-rate would traditionally have marked a power pitcher, it’s now sorta wimpy), probably affects Nola, but certainly is part of the profiles of Scherzer and deGrom, and I think it’s significant enough to affect how we should look at this issue. Of course, it also pertains to recent discussions we’ve had concerning the value of the strikeout and power pitcher value: except in exceptional cases, like Nolan Ryan and Randy Johnson, generally speaking, the higher the power value the greater the cost in season burden or career longevity. Formerly, it was career longevity that most typically suffered (e.g., Kerry Wood, and even Pedro). Now, with pitch-count managing, it’s the season burden. I think it’s an open question how we should factor this into consideration of how outstanding pitchers contribute value vis a vis position players in an MVP vote context.
AL MVP:
1. Mike Trout
2. Mookie Betts
3. J.D. Martinez
4. Matt Chapman
5. Blake Snell
6. Francisco Lindor
7. Alex Bregmann
8. Jose Ramirez
9. Chris Sale
10. Justin Verlander
NL MVP:
1. Jacob DeGrom
2. Christian Yelich
3. Max Scherzer
4. Aaron Nola
5. Lorenzo Cain
6. Kyle Freeland
7. Javier Baez
8. Freddie Freeman
9. Nolan Arenado
10. Trevor Story
The problem I see this year is the paucity of viable candidates down-ballot, or perhaps the abundance of possibles in this regard. Since I try to keep the “value” in MVP, and I don’t include pitchers, who (according to me) have their own award, the final three in the AL and final four in the NL were difficult to winnow from the crowd. I suspect my picks will be suspect to many.
American League:
1. Mookie Betts—situation reversed from two years ago when Trout’s season edged his in WAR.
2. J.D. Martinez—deserves recognition for monster year. Without him the Bosox would not have won division or 100 games.
3. Alex Bregman—took up the slack for the Astros when the big bats of last year’s champions faltered.
4. Matt Chapman—led the playoff As in oWAR and dWAR.
5. Jose Ramirez—slight edge over Lindor with the bat. Both flagged in the second half.
6. Francisco Lindor.
7. Mike Trout—great stats in many categories, but Betts outpaced him in the rest and wasn’t marking time on a team going no place.
8. Mitch Haniger—key player on a team that was 12 games over Pythagorean expectation.
9. Jose Altuve—reigning MVP and this year’s forgotten man.
10. Tommie Pham—an idiosyncratic pick, perhaps, but his bat was a huge factor in the Rays’ 28-12 finish.
National League:
1. Christian Yelich—an MVP year in every respect.
2. Trevor Story—In something of an off-year for the Rockies’ offense, Story, playing a key position, lived up to the promise he showed in his first months, back in 2016.
3. Freddie Freeman—someone has to be responsible for those 90 Atlanta wins.
4. Nolan Arenado—fourth top-10 MVP season in a row, but not quite as productive.
5. Javier Baez—heart of the Cubs offense for most of this year. If he hadn’t produced just 4 runs and one RBI in the critical last nine games, I’d rank him higher.
6. Paul Goldschmidt—good season for a team that fell apart.
7. Ronald Acuna—played about 70% of Braves games as a 20-year-old. Came on very strong in final weeks.
8. Eugenio Suarez—very good season obscured by the Reds’ mediocre showing.
9. Anthony Rendon—led the underachieving Nats in oWAR for the second year in a row.
10. Ben Zobrist—for three months had a very hot bat and did his usual underrated job as a dependable utility guy. One of the hidden reasons the Cubs have had their recent run of success.
Why did I leave off Carpenter? When he was really hot the Cards weren’t, and when they needed a big bat in September he batted .170.
I’ve so far been focusing on the NL and trying to set some criteria for what I think counts towards MVP. I have no problem with the top spot. While my own approach to the MVP considers team records and competitiveness basically irrelevant, except as a sort of tie-breaker concept (I don’t really know why player value should be converted to player value in pennant-contention context), a September performance like Yelich’s breaks through that point of view. Conspicuous contribution in pennant-clutch contexts is something I see differently from simple quality stats on a contender. In fact, I’m very interested in clutch and timing in general. Thinking of nsb’s list, I haven’t penalized Carpenter the way I’ve boosted Yelich, because I don’t think his September slump was as profound as Yelich’s burst, and there’s a difference between a player like Yelich, who contributes all year and then steps on the gas and a player who contributes and then falls off — the March-August contribution is the main base. (Of course, Carpenter was more like a May-August contribution, but it was huge — hard to know what to make of a season like Carpenter’s.) I also don’t think Baez’s disappointing finish was poor enough or sustained enough to dent his MVP standing.
Here’s a table I compiled for NL hitters who are have been listed here so far. It includes OPS+ and dWAR, but I’m focused on WPA — clutch quality in game-critical situations — and RE24 — clutch quality in run-opportunity contexts. (Yelich is the league leader in all three offensive categories.)
…………………………..OPS+……………….WPA…………………RE24……………….dWAR
Albies…………………102…………………..0.3…………………..14.4…………………1.2
Acuna…………………144………………….2.0……………………27.0………………. -0,1
Arenado……………..133………………….3.4……………………37.6………………. -0.4
Baez……………………126………………….3.0…………………..36.4…………………1.7
Cain…………………….119………………….2.8…………………..29.4……………….. 2.4
Carpenter……………143………………….3.5…………………..38.2,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, -0.1
Freeman……………..140………………….3.8…………………..40.1…………………0.2
Goldschmidt……….139…………………..4.6………………….42.5………………. -0.4
Harper………………..133…………………..3.2………………….43.7………………. -3.2
Rendon……………….137…………………..3,0………………….35.0………………. -0.4
Story…………………..127…………………..2.9………………….32.8…………………0.8
Suarez…………………135………………….3.0………………….32.6…………………0.3
Yelich…………………..164………………….6.0………………….64.2………………. -0.4
Zobrist…………………115………………….1.5………………….19.8………………..0.4
Some notes: Albies suffers in the leverage categories because they’re cumulative, and he was a non-qualifier, with fewer opportunities than the others. His role as a lead off hitter was also a disadvantage, which holds for Cain as well (I’m not sure for who else). Harper’s really done in by dWAR, but, personally, I can’t spot the reason in his basic B-Ref fielding stats (although they show up on the BIS-based stats, which I’d tend to trust — I don’t really understand either dWAR or BIS stats, but I’ve read enough of BIS methodology that I’m willing to rely on it, and here dWAR lines up.).
I have 8 hitters on my NL ballot, because Scherzer and deGrom are on it (the reasons should be clear from my earlier comment), and these are the stats that most influenced my vote for hitters.
1. Yelich
2. Baez
3. deGrom
4. Scherzer
5. Cain
6. Freeman
7. Goldschmidt
8. Carpenter
9. Arenado
10. Story
NL Players with 70 XBH.
1998-2008 – 10+ every year, incl. 16+ eight times
2009 – 9
2010 – 7
2011 – 5
2012 – 4
2013 – 3
2014 – 0 (first time since 1986)
2015 – 6
2016 – 8
2017 – 7
2018 – 9
2019 – ???
I compiled some stats for the AL parallel to the ones I used to think through my NL vote. First, looking at pitchers, and keeping Paul’s idea that a 6-inning starter is not what we have in mind when we speak about pitcher-MVPs, here are the figures I came up with for the pitchers who top the pWAR chart:
………………ERA+……IP……..IP/GS……Ave.GSc……8+IP……..6>IP………K/9
Snell…………219……..180……….5.8…………64………0…………12……..11.0
Sale………….207……..158……….5.9…………66………2…………..9……..13.5
Verlander…159……..214……….6.3…………64………3…………..6……..12.2
Kluber………151……..215……….6.5…………61………6…………..6………9.3
Bauer……….198……..171……….6.3………….63………4………….5………11.5
Clevenger…140……..200……….6.3………….58………1………….7………..9.3
Cole………….145……..200……….6.3………….63………1………….8………12.4
Some notes: Sale’s IP total is too low to make him a qualifier, though the distance to the minimum is really negligible. Consequently, his K/9 total, which would, with four more IP establish a new high, doesn’t – and perhaps that’s for the best, as Randy Johnson’s 13.4 K/9 is far more impressive, stretching over 250 IP. For Bauer, I’ve excluded his final appearance from his totals (except ERA+) because it was 4 innings of relief work; he’d have 11.3 K/9 otherwise.
These guys, except, marginally, Kluber, are “6-inning starters.” Three of the top eleven MLB K/9 rates since 1876 are on this list, plus Sale (Scherzer is among that number in the NL). We all know that SO are cheap now, but this does seem to bear out the idea that the burden assumed by the starting pitcher is shifting from IP to K. Hitters may be easier to strike out, but it still requires pitches to do it, and the speed and spin of those pitches is increasing wear on starter arms. Sale alone was responsible for 50% of opposition outs when he pitched: that’s a lot of value contributed along with his 207 ERA+. Snell’s record is a lot like deGrom’s, if you ignore W-L, including a couple of games where a DL-worthy injury caused him to be pulled early and almost identical league-leading ERA+ figures. His average stint was a full inning shorter than deGrom’s, however (reflected in deGrom having 20% more total IP), and while his K/9 figure is almost as high, his GSc’s were appreciably lower. Snell got the wins, but his contribution here seems less valuable than deGrom’s in the NL.
Here are hitting figures for league leaders, using the stats I focused on for the NL, OPS+ reflecting general batting value level, WPA and RE24 reflecting cumulative value in terms of the timing of hits.
………………..OPS+……WPA…………RE24………….dWAR
Betts………….186………..6.0……………64.3……………1.8
Trout…………199………..4.0……………63.5……………1.2
Martinez……173………..5.4……………73.4………….. -1.4
Bregman……156…………5.8……………54.7………… -0.1
Ramirez……..150………..3.4……………54.2……………0.8
Lindor………..131…………2.2……………35.2…………..2.5
Chapman……136………..1.9……………22.1…………..3.5
Simmons…….109………..0.6……………15.2…………..3.1
Hanigar……….139………..3.3……………29.0…………..0.2
Hicks…………..123……….2.1…………….34.5……………0.2
Davis…………..136……….3.7…………….30.1………… -1.6
Altuve …………133……….0.7……………21.6…….……..0.6
Pham…………..127……….0.6……………..8.3…….…… -0.3
Pham was named by nsb, so I have him here, although he played mostly in the NL; his two league dWAR is an estimate. Trout’s abbreviated season affects his WPA, but his RE24 is surprisingly high nevertheless, and he compiled an awful lot of dWAR for an outfielder. Unfortunately for his case, Betts compiled significantly more.
Here’s an interesting full calculation to make someday: does 158 IP with the pitcher contributing 50% of opposition outs single handed (Sale) contribute more or less value than 73.4 RE24 contributed by a DH who sits on the bench for 80-85% of a 150-game season (Martinez)? I think that’s a close call. Martinez played in the outfield in about a third of his games, which counts for a lot in my view BaseballProjections.com rated his defense ok; BIS, which I trust, rated it poor). I can see a DH as a real MVP candidate, but to get my vote his productivity would have to be more than Ruthian, and Martinez, despite his Triple Crown-like season, was not near what I’d need to see. I originally left him off my ballot, then ranked him tenth, then boosted him by applying a fogey-bias adjustment. If I’d left him off, I’d have had room for Trevor Bauer or Mitch Hanigar.
1. Betts
2. Trout
3. Ramirez
4. Bregman
5. Lindor
6. Verlander
7. Martinez
8. Sale
9. Chapman
10. Snell
Bob:
Adding in pitchers does carry some advantages, I suppose, such as not having to fill a ballot of 10 when there are just seven—6 in the NL, per me— unquestionable choices. My impression is that short ballots aren’t allowed. Otherwise, though our orders are different, we agree fairly closely on who is worthy and who is the top pick.
It’s interesting to compare Acuna’s age 20 season with Trout’s. Trout came up mid-season the previous year and was in over his head for six weeks, then straightened out, but began 2012 in the minors. Starting April 28th with the Angels he was on fire through July then cooled markedly, especially in September. Acuna started this year in the minors like Trout, then came up and settled in, missed a month, readjusted, and put in a final two months with an OPS over 1.000, scoring well over half his runs, hitting well over half his HRs, and raising his BA from .264 to .293 in the final two months. In about 3/4 the PAs, he had one less double (27/26), four fewer HRs (30/26), and 19 fewer RBIs (83/64) than Trout. In true age terms, Trout was about four months older than Acuna for his Age 20 season.
Yeah, Doom’s a hard taskmaster: no short ballots. But I wound up thinking harder about players I’d never paid much attention to, and Acuna was one. I had him on the cusp, but not enough playing time. Your comparison with Trout might have made me think again, if you’d suggested it earlier.
I am glad to make the task more difficult!
The BBWAA requires 10 names, so I decided to do the same. When I’ve done “historical” MVP votes, I’ve always allowed ballots to be short, partly because I think it’s harder to do in the past. But in the now? Now, we’re all living through it, so it seems fair to hold us to that same tough standard.
Trout’s 2012 rookie season is one of the great seasons ever for any player at any age. He finished with 10.5 WAR. There is no comparison between the two, as much as Avinash is clearly a great, young talent.
Sorry ** Acuna
MHH:
It’s good—metaphorically speaking—to hear a new voice. Why not cast a ballot while you’re at it.
For you and anyone else, here’s a question: in which year did Trout accumulate 11.3 WAR?
I think that if I understand nsb correctly, the best way to compare Trout and Acuna at age-comparable rookie levels would be to take the first two months of Trout’s 2012 season (when he reemerged from the Minors and hit his stride) and the final two of Acuna’s 2018 season (when he hit his stride). Their ages are then almost exactly comparable (Trout just a few weeks older), as was their MLB experience (Acuna with 13 more MLB games than Trout at those points), and the two periods happen to cover precisely equal numbers of PA.
Here are some comps (Trout 4/28-6/30/2012; Acuna 8/2-9/30/2018)
……………..PA……R……RBI……BB……SO……BA…….OBP……SLG
Trout……258….48……32…….21……..51…. .336…. .391….. .526
Acuna…..258….45……37…….28…….56….. .320…. .399….. .609
I don’t know how Trout and Acuna fielded over those two months, but Trout was clearly far superior as far as rookie fielding goes.
But in hitting, the two are scarily close in this comparison.
Well off the beaten path, but does anyone recognize the 10/3/2018 Powerball numbers: 41 53 59 63 66 ? The power play number was 3 and has nothing to do with the 5 other numbers as far as I’m thinking. Any guesses?
Those are all Dodger pennants, correct? Funny! I was thinking uniform numbers or home run totals, but that’s pretty great.
Absolutely!!!
Nice eye, Paul (and Doom).
Three days till voting closes. Don’t forget to cast your ballot. And vote changes ARE allowed!
Doom, I have a suggestion: extending the deadline and encouraging more discussion.
Although I expect that when January comes and the Circle of Greats ballot appears our missing stalwarts will appear, right now HHS has few contributors (only 8 so far on this string). This is true even though the string has seen some welcome new or recently absent names (at least in my memory), like Michael Hall Hayes and koma. Rather than focus on vote tallies, since there may be few votes for these MVPs, why don’t you extend the time and encourage discussion, analysis, argument, invective, etc., perhaps prompting it with your own views of the votes cast so far (which I’d like to hear)? For example, there are guys on and off my ballot whose records I don’t really know in depth, and if you or others looked at it and thought, “This guy’s voting like an ignoramus,” not only would I have no argument, I’d welcome an explanation. We don’t often do a lot of this (although you have already questioned Paul’s ballot, starting a productive discussion), but in this case it might be the way to go, and it might even lead to some ballot changes.
I assume you’ll follow the MVPs with CYA ballots, but there’s still plenty of time, while the post-season has our attention, to reflect on which season performances have been under- or over-valued and need some attention here. how we should be assessing pitching contributions, should timing of hot and cold streaks matter (since every game counts the same), should we be attending to whether a player’s team was a contender, and so forth.
Just a suggestion . . . it may be that Doug has other posts in the pipeline and we need to vote and make way . . .
An additional observation: have we ever gotten this far in a string without a single off-topic comment? And this is the post-season, when I’d expect more than usual, commenting on the daily news. . . . Isn’t anyone going to congratulate Doom on a clinching six-pitcher shutout? And Doom, where’s the Victory Dance?
I have a particular player to talk about: Blake Snell. I want to go back to one of the posts I wrote earlier this summer. Remember how we can use ERA+ and Innings Pitched to estimate a pitcher’s record? Well, if we do this with Snell, we see that his actual record of 21-5 is great. But if we use my method to suss out his record, he’s listed as 17-3. I’m not trying to knock a 17-3 record, mind you; that’s great. But does that merit serious MVP consideration? I’m inclined to think it doesn’t, but maybe that’s just me. He’s just too shy on the innings pitched for my taste. (You could also look at his FIP-based numbers and draw an even more extreme conclusion; without getting into that, though, I’m still not sure his numbers stack up to the upper-reaches of an MVP ballot in this year’s AL, with such a strong class of position players.
I think Snell brings us into uncharted territory when it comes to awards. His stats in W-L, ERA, ERA+, and WAR, among others, are products of his own skills only in part, even if that part is fairly large, and therefore they are unusually open to scrutiny. Comparing his year to that of more historically normal ones for a starting pitcher, say some of the other times when a pitcher finished 21-5, is not the only approach, but it is the one that came to mind, so I’m going with it:
2018 Blake Snell: 1.89 ERA—31 starts—180.2 IP—5.81 IP/S—219 ERA+—WAR 7.5
2011 C Kershaw: 2.28 ERA—33 starts—233.1 IP—7.06 IP/S—161 ERA+—WAR 6.7—CYA 1—MVP 12
2005 Carpenter: 2.83 ERA—33 starts—241.2 IP—7.31 IP/S—150 ERA+—WAR 5.8—CYA 1—MVP 8
1971 D McNally: 2.89 ERA—30 starts—224.1 IP—7.47 IP/S—117 ERA+—WAR 3.1—CYA 4—MVP12
1947 Lar Jansen: 3.16 ERA—30 starts—232.2 IP—7.74 IP/S—129 ERA+—WAR 5.0—MVP 7
1942 T Bonham: 2.27 ERA—27 starts—224.1 IP—8.30 IP/S—152 ERA+—WAR 4.2—MVP 5
1940 B Newsom: 2.83 ERA—34 starts—260.0 IP—7.65 IP/S—168 ERA+—WAR 7.6—MVP 4
Several things stand out here: Snell pitched on average 1.25 fewer innings per outing than Kershaw just seven years ago, whereas Kershaw pitched only .59 fewer innings per outing that Newsom some seventy-one years earlier than that. In fact, the decline in IP/S—in this small sampling, at least—is extremely gradual up though 2005, and Kershaw’s figure isn’t that out of line. A reasonable conclusion, I’d say, is that up until very recently you probably needed over seven Innings per outing to make it to 26 decisions and have a reasonably positive W-L%.
Another thing worth noting is that the pre-CYA award pitchers did better in the MVP voting than did those after it came into being. I won’t elaborate, the reason being obvious.
Snell’s WAR of 7.5, second only to Newsom’s’, and his 219 ERA+, far above that of any of the others, seem directly related to the shortness of his outings. In fact, he made it through the opposing order a full three times on only seven occasions, and faced just 3 batters a fourth time all season. Kershaw, in contrast, faced the opposing lineup three times or more in 21 of 33 starts and confronted 54 batters a fourth time. This factor alone, it seems to me, makes the 2011 Kershaw a greater asset to his team, since he shouldered more of the burden and did it well.
Yup. Also, those same pitchers here are compared with their rWAR on the left and fWAR on the right:
Bobo Newsom, 1940 – 7.6/5.6
Terry Bonham, 1942 – 4.2/4.5
Larry Jansen, 1947 – 5.0/4.1
Dave McNally, 1971 – 3.1/1.8
Chris Carpenter, 2005 – 5.8/6.3
Clayton Kershaw, 2011 – 6.7/7.1
Blake Snell, 2018 – 7.5/4.6
So… which is it? Was Blake Snell this year the best 21-5 pitcher of all-time, or was he middle-of-the-pack for a 21-5 pitcher? You’ll notice that, on no other pitcher is there such wide disagreement via WAR. Newsom comes close, but even Newsom’s lower number is pretty darn good. Snell’s… well, I’m not sold. I think his ERA is a remarkable accomplishment. He’s trimmed his walk rate impressively. But his hit rate? I just don’t think that’s sustainable, unless the guy is somehow Nolan Ryan and we all just missed it. I have to say that I think he was mostly fortunate in his hit results this year, rather than it reflecting some deep, underlying skill.
Snell had an outstanding year. By my own WAR metric (some parts of which y’all have seen here, but is actually marginally more complex than what I shared this summer), I have Snell sandwiched between Verlander and Kluber, and rated as the #4 pitcher in the AL. I think that’s closer to right, although I may fudge my way to putting Kluber at #4 and bumping Snell down, simply because I’m not certain I’m adequately controlling for innings. He’s right around there, though, rather than a clear #1, in my opinion (baseball-reference has him as more than half-a-win above Sale for the #1 spot on the junior circuit).
It may just be a vestigial belief of mine with no application to current practice, but another thing I find really disturbing about, not Snell, but how he was handled this year, is that he was never allowed to get to the crisis point, to face the critical moment, always being pulled before he might be put to the test. I like my heroes to go head to head with the opposition when things are on the line—or at least, for a pitcher in these strange times, when the game is drawing to a head in the critical later innings. Late and close? For Snell that was early and it doesn’t matter. He never got the opportunity to prove his mettle, so we really don’t have even a clue as to what his clutch capabilities are.
I think all of us agree that the object of playing a baseball game is to win it. I think the way Snell was handled may have accorded fully with that objective, and so would be hard to criticize. But I’m in sympathy with nsb, who I think describes why Snell’s sterling record strikes some of us as problematic.
For most fans, I think, baseball is more than a game whose outcome we observe: it’s a metaphor for the trials of character we face all the time. Like nsb, we have baseball heroes, some of us have villains, and interest lies in the interplay between winning and losing and the virtue drama we project onto what we see. Judging by what they say and their memoirs when retired, players share this with fans; sportswriters have long known that’s what sports is really about. Managers aren’t supposed to share this attitude: their paid to produce results that maximize team income through a winning profile, and perhaps no manager has reflected this more than Kevin Cash (though I don’t follow the Rays closely enough to know more that what the stats suggest).
When I was a kid, one of my favorite pastimes was to write down imaginary career stat sheets on a yellow pad. I’d spend hours inventing these, putting the stat categories on top, picking a year for a career to begin, and then slowly crafting twenty or more years/lines of hitting or pitching stats. But as I did that, thinking up numbers and thinking in numbers, I’d be imagining a back story, then a year-by-year career story — young pheenom or late bloomer, triumphs and setbacks, recoveries and decline. At the end, I’d feel as satisfied as if I’d watched a movie or read a baseball biography. But all I had written down were numbers. I’m still sometimes tempted to do that, but now I remind myself that I’m grown up, and so I surf the web aimlessly instead.
Your last line really made me laugh, Bob, and I suspect a lot of us can relate to this.
The next time adulthood wants to be the killjoy, you can concede that we are grown ups and put the invented numbers in a spreadsheet instead of writing them down, then continue on creating the back story in your mind.
Thanks, Tuna. It seems as though it’s been a while since I’ve spotted your name, and it’s nice to see you here.
Definitely hits way too close to home. When I play baseball sim games like Baseball Mogul, Diamond Mind and OOTP I’m constantly crafting narratives, whether I’m using real players or fake ones. I’ve gotten my teams in financial trouble because I signed overage players to sub-optimal deals just to keep them in good graces with the “fans” and because I felt they “deserved” to play their career with one team. And these are bits and bytes, not real people! Same thing with in-game decisions – I’ve put off pinch hitting for a player winding down his career in key late season or playoff games because I didn’t want him to lose his ‘moment.’
Baseball makes us pretty crazy, huh?
Hey, CC. My condolences for the close of the Indians’ season. I was hoping for a long-odds 70th anniversary championship.
Thanks Bob. This one’s a lot easier to swallow than last year -we just got outplayed by a better team. We’ve gotta consider building the roster for October from Day 1 – for one or two more seasons, the Central is going to be a division winnable by 84 games or so. DH Ramirez or Lindor more often, give them rest days, do anything to keep them from burning out. Kluber doesn’t need as heavy a workload.
Have you guys ever read “The Universal Baseball Association” by Robert Coover? I found it fascinating, as the main character embodies many of these remembrances you mention.
I was a Coover fan, Josh, and I read it maybe fifty years ago. A terrific fever dream of old time baseball culture. I thought of it often when writing about 19th c. ball earlier this year, especially whenever the issue of players drinking too much came up.
And — to pick up your main thought, which didn’t come to me till later, since I had initially forgotten the frame of the book — I remember now that the colorful old time baseball characters were actually all in the imagination of the obsessive, increasingly psychotic protagonist, the “main character” whom you thought of when reading these comments.
I’ve received more flattering comparisons, though perhaps none so accurate. I’m sure it’s why I loved the book, despite finding it . . . unsettling.
Not to go all literary, but the novel is an allegory that draws a parallel between the main character, J. Henry Waugh, and the Christian god. The young pitcher killed by a line drive, Damon Rutherford, has Christlike characteristics, and his tragically predestined death results in various phenomena, the chief being that Waugh, alias God to the world he has created in his mind, goes even more crazy than he already was and, as I recall, turns things very dark in the end in his madness.
My question always has been this: since Coover himself is a kind of uber-deity to the story—to Waugh, in other words—is there a second, less obvious allegory about writers’ relationships to their characters? How can you kill off a creation you’ve come to know inside out and to love like a favorite child, just because the plot you’ve conceived requires it?
Bob, my intention was not to compare you to the less savory aspects of J. Henry Waugh. 🙂 Your fascination with imaginary stats (one that I share) was what brought the book to mind. I hope I did not inadvertently offend.
NSB, I’ve never heard the book explained as an allegory. Interesting. Is that something Coover himself admitted to? Or is that someone else’s interpretation of his work? I’ll have to mull over the theological implications that I had never considered…
No offense taken, Josh: I was just foolin’ around. The more I recall the book (and I’ve now poked around online to refresh my memory, which nsb’s comment did as well, I see more than ever how germane your connection was. There’s a nice New York Times article on the book, written on the occasion of its reissue a few years ago — perhaps those here who haven’t read the book will be tempted by it.
I may be recalling the plot wrong, but it seems to me that after the beanball incident that nsb notes, which was generated by random rolls of the dice, leads the main character towards madness, part of that madness involves succumbing to the temptation to “load the dice,” so to speak.
At one time, I set up a dice baseball league, using the eight National League teams of the time, and enjoying the novel standings that resulted — things like the Phillies in first place, unimaginable to me in the late ’50s. But I was a Brooklyn rooter, and, ultimately, I realized I’d begun to cheat: dropping the dice in ways that often insured the outcomes I was hoping for. Brooklyn began to pull ahead and I lost interest — it was a lot of time and effort to undertake just in order to cheat. But I think when I read Coover’s book, I was able to relate to J. Henry Waugh more through that fling with dice baseball than through my long romance with yellow pads.
NSB and Doom, Snell bothers me. For years people have diminished the accomplishments of closers by pointing out that many were “failed starters.” What’s Snell, if he can’t get through the 6th inning? And this wasn’t limited to 2018. He had a combined 43 Starts in 2016-17, with 218 IP (5.07 IP/S).
If that truly is the extent of his abilities, then dial it back a few decades and Snell wouldn’t even be in the rotation–at best he’d be a useful weapon as a long reliever and occasional spot starter/second half of the double header guy. I don’t blame management for using him in an optimal way, but I’d find his stats a little more compelling if he was challenged more.
How different is this than platooning a regular? Would you be willing to consider the candidacy for MVP someone who only bats against off-handed pitching? Look at the splits of four famed left-handed sluggers (Reggie, Stargell, Thome, and Ortiz) and, more particularly, their IBB. None of the four were particularly good against lefties, and the opposing teams pitched them that way.
.
A good comp for Snell in 2018 might be Pedro Martinez 2002 and 2003 with the Saux. Less than 200 innings, high W-L%, few CG, high ERA+,….. not a great number of starts, either. IIRC, he may have even been making starts with 5 days rest. Nobody was suspect of Martinez’ accomplishments because he was already established as one of the top 2-3 pitchers in baseball. Maybe this is just Snell’s breakout season and he’ll do more of the same for several years to come? After all, it’s not like the workload is going to hurt him…
I can see the point. But Pedro had 29 Starts and 208 IP in those starts, or 7.17 IP in those starts.
Snell might very well be able to increase his capacity, but he hasn’t yet.
Mike L:
FWIW, in 2002-2003, Pedro started 60, completed 5, pitched a mere 386 innings (6.43/Start) and went an average of 17-4 with a 206 ERA+…..that 6.43/Start wouldn’t be as much of a stretch for Snell (2018 – 5.83/Start – uggghhh). Pedro had a superior resume prior (obviously) but, if they’re going to baby Snell for the next few years, he might be able to duplicate this past season
Paul, Pedro didn’t pitch the second half of 2001, which likely led to more careful use in 2002.
I think Mike’s comparison of Snell to a platoon player is worth thinking about. I had been thinking of “very long reliever,” a sort of starter version of Ryan Yarbrough, the way Cash used him this year. But platooning captures more of what’s going on, especially if we broaden the concept from simple lefty/righty considerations and consider the idea more broadly as role playing.
For position players, the most profoundly “platoony” manager ever was actually Gil Hodges. If we look at the 1969 Mets, only two hitters were qualifiers. Cash had four, but not one of them was a solid regular, all having PA in the 544-560 range. Hodges didn’t “platoon” his pitchers: three were qualifiers, and well over the minimum, while Cash had only Snell, 19 IP over the minimum. Aside from Yarbrough at 147 IP, no one else even broke 100 IP. So, going beyond Hodges, Cash “platoons” the entire roster.
Snell has been a starter for three seasons now, and he has never pitched into the 9th. His longest efforts are 7.1 IP, and those all occurred this season. In two cases, Cash pulled him after he got into a jam, but in the third, he retired the lead off batter in the 8th and Cash brought in relief. In that case, the first batter was a switch-hitting pinch hitter, but Mookie Betts followed and Cash went with the platoon advantage against Betts (it didn’t work).
The most dramatic indication that it is Cash, rather than Snell, who is the key factor in Snell’s hybrid role is the way he was handled in his August 10 start this year. He was recently off the DL, but in his second start since, and well rested after an initial good outing, limited to 4 IP (3 H, 1 R) and 59 pitches. But Cash put him on an innings count limit of five, and pulled him after only 47 pitches of a perfect game. Clearly, Cash wasn’t worried about losing the game (the score was 4-0) so much as losing his pitcher, and in Snell’s case, this “platoon” role may have as much to do with long-term value conservation as with lack of confidence in Snell bring able to pitch well in late innings of specific games. Add that to Cash’s profile as more prone to platooning than even Hodges. And the fact is that, like Hodges, Cash is getting good results with a team of moderate talent.
Bob (epm)
” “: For position players, the most profoundly “platoony” manager ever was actually Gil Hodges.” ”
Gene Mauch used to keep the public address announcer pretty busy as well by making constant “in-game” defensive changes. But, he wasn’t quite the genius that Joe Maddon/Tony LaRussa are with the pitcher batting eighth……
And, yeah, Mauch usually had capable veterans with power to bat for the all-field/no-hit guys so it generally resulted in over-achievement for the roster
Off on a tangent due to your remark about platooning:
Just recently I got interested in the strange career of Fred Lynn, who burst on the scene at age 23 by winning the ROY and MVP for the Red Sox in 1975. An excellent fielder, he seemed destined—in a sort of slightly older, pre-Mike Trout way—to have a HOF career lying before him. Well, the next three seasons he had some injuries but put up decent to very good numbers, then came his career year in which he swept the league in BA, OBP, SLG, and OPS+. Finished only 4th in the MVP voting, though, behind Baylor’s 139 RBIs, Singleton’s career year for the pennant winning Orioles, and Brett, possibly because it was a down year for Lynn’s own team.
Or possibly not. In Fenway he batted .386/.470/.798. Elsewhere .276/.371/.461. But the figures that stand out even more are these: .364/.450/.709. vs RHP; .241/.342/.421 vs LHP.
After changing teams a year later, Lynn was never the same. But it wasn’t so much that injuries held him back or that he missed the friendly confines of Fenway (Career BA .347), as it was that in LA and Baltimore his weakness against lefties really had an impact on his overall performance, and although he was never absolutely a platoon player, his managers didn’t start him against lefties nearly as much as earlier in his career.
Responding to nsb re: Fred Lynn.
Lynn wasn’t the only lefty batter who couldn’t hit lefties. The 25 worst splits (difference between BA against LHP and overall BA) among 285 lefty batters with 1000+ PA against LHP include these names.
6. Johnny Mize
10. Vic Wertz
11. Jim Bottomley
14. Norm Cash
18. Roger Maris
20. Ryan Howard
23. Carl Yastrzemski
24. Paul O’Neill
25. Bill Dickey
Lynn checks in at the 28th worst split, just behind (or ahead of?) Eddie Mathews in 27th spot.
Kind of makes you wonder about Yaz—if free agency had carried him away from Fenway in his prime, where his career might have gone. Dickey, being a catcher, was easy to platoon, I’d guess. Mize, the other HOFer here, seems to have had far less trouble after WWII than before. Learned to hit the curve, maybe. At any rate he had many big seasons, not just a couple. Norm Cash may be the closest comp to Lynn.
I guess Bottomley was a HOFer, too, courtesy of the blind vets committee.
The interesting thing to me about the “opener” (well, one interesting thing – I suspect there are dozens) is that it’s a strategy that we know is sub-optimal. Every manager in baseball history starts the game with the best possible outcome being their pitcher throwing a complete game shutout. Doesn’t matter if it’s 27 strikeouts or 27 line drives to deep center field – no manager has ever thought “You know, I’d prefer to juggle 5 or 6 bullpen guys to get this win instead of just letting my starter finish the game.” It’s a strategy born of necessity – it leverages the personnel you have (a lot of good bullpen arms) instead of the personnel you wish you had (a reliable 4th or 5th starter).
In many ways, the bullpen game is flipping the script – you’re going into the game assuming a sunk cost. What happens when you keep starting a back of the rotation starter who can’t give you anything resembling a quality start? You end up burning the bullpen anyway, but just to soak up innings in a lost cause. To me it also plays into the psychological issues we’ve discussed in other threads recently. Take two games, mutatis mutandis, except one game starts your back of the rotation rented mule, and one game starts your ‘opener.’ Joe Starter goes 1.2 innings, gives up 3 runs, and gets relieved by 4 bullpen pitchers who shut down the opposition the rest of the way. In hypothetical game #2, Max Opener (nickname ‘The Can’) and 4 other bullpen pitchers combine to give up 3 runs. These games look the same on the box score in many ways, but in Game #1 your initial strategy is unquestionably a failure – 1.2 innings giving up 3 runs is a failed start. 3 runs in a bullpen game, though, is probably considered a rousing success. Does the team react the same way in both games? Do teams get discouraged and have the fight taken out of them because they see their starter fail to give them any length and know that just keeping the game close is going to take a pretty Herculean effort from a good chunk of your bullpen? We can’t ever be sure. But I think it’s interesting to discuss.
Two things.
For nsb: as far as “platoon players” go, I immediately thought of Lou Whitaker. In 1989, over a third of his starts were against LH starters. In 1990, it drops to about 10% of his starts (just a shade over, actually). It’s a shade under 10% in 1991. In 1992, it’s 3%. Then 1%, then none his last two years. Yet, look at his OPS+ marks those years: 129 in his final six combined. That’s nearly Jim Thome (136) in his last six, and it’s better than Reggie Jackson (111) or Ken Griffey, Jr. (110) when all those guys had LEFT was their bat. But that happened only because Detroit just sat him against lefties. He was really just a platoon player at that point. No shame in it, by the way; I’m just saying that I don’t find those final six years as impressive as some do.
For CC: you mention the “sub-optimal” strategy of the opener. It’s a good point. I like how you examined both sides of it. But even Tampa, who used it the most, didn’t do it for Snell’s games; they only did it for the games their boatload of garbage starters would’ve pitched, anyway.
They other thing you didn’t mention, and the thing which I see as necessary to talk about, is the fact that the most runs are scored in the first inning. This is because it’s the only inning in which you KNOW the best players are going to bat. So if you had a shut-down reliever, and you could be CERTAIN of throwing a shutout inning, it would be worth doing in the first, because that’s the inning in which you’re, over the long haul, saving the most runs, as it’s also the inning in which you’d allow the most runs. Here’s MLB R/Inning for 2018:
1st – 0.546482929
2nd – 0.442410531
3rd – 0.475730152
4th – 0.522007404
5th – 0.514808721
6th – 0.517071164
7th – 0.503499382
8th – 0.498351195
(These are combined totals, for both teams in a game. Also, I didn’t include the 9th because it’s artificially bounded in that winning teams play in it less often, and there’s a maximum to the number of runs in that inning that doesn’t apply at other times. I assume you’ll all understand why it’s more responsible to leave it out than to include it.)
Doom: You’re definitely correct on that second part – when the ‘opener’ was just something that people were batting around at rotisserie league drafts and SABR conventions, the analytical rationale was both the amount of scoring that happens in the 1st inning (because, as you said, we know the 1-2-3 hitters are going to bat) and the certainty of knowing who your pitcher will be facing, which allows you to try and work a platoon split or certain pitcher vs batter match-ups.
I also stacked the deck a bit with my example – if your opener gave up 3 runs, it would be seen as just as much of a failure as a starter doing the same thing. Potentially even worse. But over the long run you’d expect an elite bullpen pitcher to have less disastrous first innings than a mediocre/below replacement level starter.
It seems to me that part of the issue here is hidden in the Minors. Why should there be below-replacement-level starters at all (apart from a pitcher on contract because of an adequate record simply having a bad year)? Replacement-level players are available, either within the organization or through a low-level trade.
It used to be that the lowest talent level of MLB pitchers were in the bullpen: that’s where you might find sub-zero WAR cases — especially before WAR was measured and managers could make that assessment easily. Although a starter might have a sub-zero year, there should not have been truly mediocre pitchers in the rotation, since the best of the bullpen would have taken their places. Pitchers all began as starter wannabes in the Minors, and except in rare cases, success meant coming up as a starter. Things have changed: what could represent success more than a Mariano-like career? (Well, ok, a Unit-like career, but let’s be real . . .)
I think that’s no longer true. With relievers increasingly being used in key roles, managers in the Minors are increasingly picking out certain types of high quality arms as potentially optimal relievers and closers, and grooming them for those roles. This thins the quality of the starter pool reaching the Majors, and rebalances WAR so that more of it turns up in the bullpen and the bottom of the rotation sinks towards or below replacement level. When that happens, optimal strategy changes — but that optimization isn’t theoretical: it’s grounded in the specific development strategies that clubs are now using in their organizations.
(I’ve stated all this as fact. In truth, I’ve inferred it from some particular cases I’ve read about — don’t ask me to recall the names! — general trends we’re all aware of, and observation of staff performances. If my assumptions seem wrong, I’ll be glad to be corrected.)
Is there a way to search for all pitchers season stats through their first 5 innings of work?
Or first 75 pitches?
Would be interesting to see how Snell measures up that way,
Voomo, you can do a P-I split query for innings 1-3 and 4-6, saving the results. Then you can match up the saved results in Excel to get the Inning 1-6 comparison.
You could also do each of the first 5 innings one at a time and sum up the results in an Excel spreadsheet.
At Bob’s urging, I think maybe we should extend the deadline. Let’s give ourselves a week from today; we’ll finalize votes as of 11:59:59 on Sunday, October 14.
My main hesitation in having long deadlines from the past was to get us to the next award. There is a Cy Young post, and a RotY/MotY post, as well, and I didn’t want the season to be a distant memory when those finally came about, nor did I want us to be TOO influenced by the playoffs. However, I think you’re right; it’s nicest when these posts have a large amount of discussion.
(For my part, the reason I haven’t been more active on this string is that I had a funeral to preside yesterday and have another one on Tuesday, which is a significant addition to my workload and has kept my evenings and weekends fairly busy in addition to the workday. I’ll try to be more active this coming week.)
Before I comment on anyone else’s ballot, I do have to do a little celebrating here about my Brewers! First sweep in franchise history! In the series, the Crew pitched 28 innings, 27 of them scoreless, allowing only 2 R (both earned) in the ninth of game one. Otherwise, they were nearly without blemish. It’s a formidable, hardy bullpen – best in the NL. And while it may not match up to the Yankees (best in baseball, for my money), that may not be a team Milwaukee ends up facing.
On the “trivia” side of things, this is Milwaukee’s second NLCS appearance since 2011. Since 2011, here are the teams to make it to the NLCS: Milwaukee (twice), San Francisco (twice), Chicago (thrice), Los Angeles (thrice), St. Louis (four times), New York (once). 15 possibilities (since we’re still, at the time of this post, unsure who’s going to win Braves-Dodgers – it’s 5-5 in the 5th inning of Game 3 as I type this), only six franchises. You can go back to 2008, and the only team added in is the Phillies. Anyway, the Braves will either make it the eight franchise in the last 11 years, or we’re stuck with the Dodgers again. The Dodgers have made five of the last 10 NLCS, winning only one.
My dad and I watched together today, and our conclusion on the Brewers was this: if you had to pick an NLDS MVP, it would be REALLY hard, because the contributions have been fairly even across the team. Probably Mike Moustakas, possibly Yelich (because the Rox basically decided not to pitch to him), or Eric Kratz, who didn’t even play in one of the three games. The bullpen arms have all been great (except Jeffress, but I’m hoping that will be worked out by the next round). It’s just a well-balanced team.
In closing, the Brewers have won 11 in a row, and are 23-7 since September 2. It’s been a ridiculously fun month-plus.
Boston’s 16-1 thrashing of the Yankees last night was the most lopsided post-season win by a visiting team and trails only the 16 run margin when Boston beat Cleveland 23-7 in game 4 of the 1999 ALDS (the Red Sox would win that series with a 12-8 triumph in game 5). Post-season games with a 15 run margin for the home team are game 7 of the 1996 NLCS (Braves beat Cards 15-0) and game 3 of the 2001 ALDS (Indians beat Mariners 17-2, but Seattle would come back to win the series).
Austin Romine became just the second position player to pitch in a post-season game, following Cliff Pennington for the Royals in their 14-2 loss to Toronto in game 4 of the 2015 ALCS.
Hilariously, according to the Baseball-Reference Stathead email that I now get every morning (plug-plug-plug! It’s really great!), there are two other “position players” who pitched in the postseason. Their names are “Babe Ruth” and “Rick Ankiel,” because those two were pitchers when they pitched in the postseason, but the Play Index classifies them (with good reason, mind you) as position players.
Ankiel was absolutely atrocious in three playoff appearances: in three appearances (two of them starts), Ankiel pitched only 4 innings, yet gave up 7 runs (all earned) for a 15.75 ERA. He struck out 5 (pretty good, actually, in four innings of work) and didn’t allow a homer… but he walked 11 (!!!!!! – none intentional) which gave him a WHIP of 4.000. That’s not very good. I don’t really remember the specifics of those games, but I’m guessing that’s when he started to fall off the rails. He had actually been pretty good that seasons – 11-7 with a 134 ERA+ in 175 innings, and finished second in the Rookie of the Year. Was it those playoff games that spelled doom for his pitching career? In my mind, it was the following spring that he just lost “it,” but I don’t remember those 2000 NL playoffs well enough, I guess.
I remember them, Doom, and there was indeed concern at the time that something was screwy and that meltdowns like that could mess with Ankiel’s mind in the future. I think they did. It reminded me of the feeling that Calvin Schiraldi never seemed to bounce back after the disastrous last two games of the ’86 Series, where he gave the Mets 7 runs in 3 innings on successive days, dooming his break-out season to a gut-wrenching close.
That ’86 post-season was tough on relievers. Angels’ closer Donnie Moore was an out away from knocking out the Red Sox before his home run ball to Dave Henderson started the Boston comeback from 3-1 down in the ALCS. He pitched fewer than 60 innings over the next two seasons, though that was due mainly to injury, before taking his own life a year later.
Another pitcher who melted down in the Series and later took his life was Hugh Casey, but the distance between the two events was ten years (he died in 1951, and his WS disasters were in 1941, including his response to his catcher, Mickey Owen, missing a game-ending strike to Joe D.), and it’s hard to draw a straight line between the two events.
That potential game-ending strike occurred with Tommy Henrich at bat.
Right — my second-hand memory was at fault.
Well, the largest single game margin was only 13, but it would be hard to top the 1960 Yankees’ three wins over the Pirates by a combined 38-3 score. Of course, they lost the Series.
Nathan Eovaldi is just the fourth former Yankee and start and win in the post-season against his former club. Who are the other three?
Here’s our friend Doug, under the guise of a seemingly abstract, purely academic, quiz, rubbing it in. Sigh. We are on to you, Doug!
I really wanted Jake Westbrook to be an answer, with his whole 6.2 innings as a Yankee in his first cup of coffee in 2000, but unfortunately he’s the only Indians pitcher that lost to the Yankees in the 2007 ALDS.
But I can do one better. 1957 WS MVP Lew Burdette and his whopping 1.1 innings for the 1950 Yankees gets him on the list.
Larry Gura is one.
The third pitcher enjoys the distinction of being the oldest to start and win three games in a single post-season.
I wager someone should know it by now, though it’s no black mark against you if you haven’t figured it out yet.
I’ll be a gambler and say Kenny Rogers.
Rogers is the one. As a Tiger at age 41, he beat the Yanks in the 2006 ALDS, the first of his three winning starts in that post-season. He was really on his game that October, pitching into the 8th inning and allowing no runs in each of the three games, while allowing just 9 total hits. Those three games are the longest post-season streak of 7 IP starts with no runs allowed, tied with Christy Mathewson (1905) and Whitey Ford (1960-61).
OK, here’s my ballot. It’s been a crazy couple weeks, so I haven’t had as much time as I’d liked to have had to do this, but it’s done now. Unsurprisingly, I have more NL thoughts than AL ones, but that’s just because of my own rooting interests. Please feel free to debate with me on any of this; I love the discussion!
AL:
1. Mike Trout – I have Mike Trout’s 2018 offensive season ranked as slightly better than Albert Pujols’ 2009, when he was the runaway NL MVP. I see it as similar to Norm Cash’s 1961 or Stan Musial’s 1948. And that’s just on offense – not one of those guys was as good defensively as Trout. I also see this as Trout’s best individual offensive season in terms of overall production, surpassing 2013 as his previous top season. Add it all in, and I see Mike Trout as the AL MVP this year.
2. Mookie Betts – It’s a great year. I would, in a normal season, put Betts as the #1 player. I just see Trout’s year as pretty incredible. I suspect that, in the BBWAA vote, Betts will win. That’s fine; it’s a great season, and no great injustice will be done. I still think Trout was better.
3. Jose Ramirez – You know, it’s too easy to think about the crater that was his August-September, but the MVP is a full-season award. Ramirez was better than you remember. A 30-30 season, a 100-100-100 season, a division championship… he’s a superstar. I like him at #3.
4. Alex Bregman – The Houston Astros are not fair. Who would’ve thought before the year that Bregman would’ve been the best Astros’ position player. He does it all in the field, too. I could’ve easily put him above Ramirez. The key to his season is the 51 doubles. I always think that a 50-double season is the sneakiest way to have a great year. It’s not as flashy as HR, but they’re SO much better than singles that they go unheralded but immensely valuable.
5. JD Martinez – I’m not trying to take anything away from Martinez – he had a great year. It’s just… even WITHOUT accounting for position/defense, I have him behind Betts and Trout, so the idea that he’s the MVP is nutty to me. I see
6. Francisco Lindor – Ramirez without the power and better defense. He’s a great player, and this feels just about right.
7. Matt Chapman – I’ve been working on my own proprietary WAR system. I don’t have all the defense stuff figured out yet, but I feel really good about the offensive part. Every defensive system agrees that Chapman is great, so I’ll put him here.
8. Mitch Haniger – As great as Nelson Cruz is, Haniger was not only a better defender, but was actually the Mariners’ best OFFENSIVE player. He’s probably never going to be this good again, but I think a career with an 8th-place MVP finish would be really great.
9. Trevor Bauer – I didn’t really want to put any pitchers on this list. Bauer wasn’t the most effective starter in the AL (that was Sale), but he did have the most value, in my opinion.
10. Manny Machado – He was one of the best 10 position players in baseball this year (and certainly one of the 20 best overall players); it would be crazy to not get MVP votes just because he switched leagues in the middle of the year. He was better in the AL than the NL, so that’s where he gets his vote from me.
Honorable mention:
Khris Davis – if a Rockie, Yankee, or Ranger, he’d hit 60 HR.
Chris Sale – Ludicrously effective, just not enough innings to make a big impact.
Nelson Cruz – Just keeps Cruzin’ along.
NL:
1. Christian Yelich – Accounting only for offense, I have him as the NL’s #1 position player. You can make an argument that he belongs behind a pitcher or two, but… well, frankly, I feel like the Brewers have had the NL’s best player half the seasons this decade: 2011 (Braun), 2012 (Braun), 2013 (Gomez), 2014 (Lucroy), and 2018). The only MVP they have is Braun’s 2011, which is the season with the best argument they DIDN’T have the best position player, because Matt Kemp was outstanding that year. As much as I’m an analyst, I’m still a fan. And that second half that Yelich put on? He was freakin’ Barry Bonds for half the year (1.219 OPS after the All-Star Game)! He picked up the Brewers, put them on his back, and carried them to the best record in the NL. Plus, his post in the Player’s Tribune (which is really just a love-letter to Lorenzo Cain and the city of Milwaukee. I can’t help but love the guy, so he’s my #1.
2. Jacob DeGrom – Yeah… he was that good. Purely by the numbers, I have him as the NL’s best player. A 1.70 ERA – even in THAT park – is pretty incredible. I’ll say a lot more about the pitchers when we get to the Cy Young post.
3. Max Scherzer – Max Scherzer has been having more or less the same year for the last six years. 200 innings, high-200s strikeouts, a WHIP under 1.000, and too many home runs. But when no one’s on base for those home runs, they don’t hurt nearly as bad. I actually see this season as Scherzer’s best year, as to Baseball-Reference and Fangraphs. Unfortunately for him, the three-time Cy Young winner is facing a pitcher from his own division who was even BETTER this year. I see him as the second-best pitcher, not just in the NL, but in baseball (7.2 WAR for me).
4. Lorenzo Cain – I admit, this is a bit of a homer pick. Baseball-Reference did have him as the WAR leader among position players until that unbelievable final-two-week stretch by Yelich. And Yeli says Cain is the one who makes that offense go. Largely, that’s thanks to a complete and total change in approach. Typically, until 2017, Cain struck out 20+% of the time… once a game, if you like to think of it that way. That figure has dropped to 15% in the last two years. But this year, the even bigger change happened: he started walking. Cain had never walked in more than 8.5% of PAs. Out of nowhere, he walked in 11.5% this year. That’s an elite figure in this year’s NL (16th; and more than 10 of the guys ahead of him are power hitters). Cain really set the table for Yelich and Aguilar, and he (of course) played just about the best defensive CF in baseball. Scary thought: he might not be the best defensive CF on his own team… but we can talk about Keon Broxton another time!
5. Freddie Freeman – Did you notice Freddie Freeman’s year? He came just shy of 100-100, he led the league in doubles, and his clutch hitting stats (REW, WPA, WPA/LI) were all in the top-4. I think he’ll do well in the BBWAA voting, as his team made an unexpected playoff push, but Albies and Acuna seemed to nab the headlines. Freeman failed to achieve a .300/.400/.500 season this year due to a suddenly-plummeting walk rate (in 2016-17, he walked in 12.76% of PAs; in 2018, he walked in only 10.75%). Intriguingly, he also chased out of the zone about 2% more of the time. Again, in 16-17, he chased on only about 32.6% of pitches, this year it was 34.5%. So that seems like an explanation… until you realize that his strikeout rate is DOWN from the last two years. I can’t say I can explain it; perhaps people just aren’t pitching around him anymore as the lineup has gotten more dangerous. Either way, he had a great year, just not enough to put him in the top-3, which is what I personally see as the “elite” players in the NL this season.
6. Javy Baez – That low OBP, though. Everything else is there: the power, the glove. Even the stuff I personally don’t care about, like the RBI and the winning team. But seriously, the main reason he led the league in RBI is that he NEVER walks (only 29 all year!), and that means that he was making out with runners on very, very often. While, yes, RBI are important, so, too is keeping your team alive. If you’re always making outs, you’re (potentially) killing rallies with men on. You might drive in more, but your teammates drive in fewer. I might be reaching to put him this high, but I don’t think so; the other numbers are all there. But when you have more home runs than walks, that doesn’t spell MVP to me. Given the defense, though, you’ve got to have him on your list.
7. Paul Goldschmidt – Paul Goldschmidt has the exact same year, every year. Perhaps one of these years, no one else will be good enough, and Goldy will get his MVP. Heck, if the D-Backs hadn’t faded, he’d be more likely to win it THIS year. I don’t think he really makes it to the elite level, but he’s a great player, so I have room for him on my ballot. He was also second in WPA and WPA/LI, so he was bringing the clutch hitting this season.
8. Brandon Nimmo – This is a sneaky one. Nimmo had a 150 OPS+, trailing only Yelich in the NL. The thing is, Nimmo also has the fewest PAs of any of the top 50 hitters in MLB not named Ronald Acuna or Juan Soto. So how do you balance it? I see Nimmo as slightly more valuable than the major WAR systems do – and maybe I’m just not accounting for defense enough. But I’ve got him right in this range. I feel pretty good about it, actually. Once you account for how extreme Citi Field played this year, I think this is a good spot for him.
9. Aaron Nola – I believe Baseball-Reference WAR to be overrating Nola by a considerable margin. I have him as a 6.5 WAR player. I’d give him the AL Cy Young, if he were in the AL… but he’s not. The NL runs much deeper, particularly among pitchers. So this is his spot. Actually, I have him and Bauer both at 6.5 WAR, so it makes sense that both are my 9th-place MVP finishers.
10. Nolan Arenado – Why Arenado over Trevor Story? Arenado plays the more premium position, plays it better, and was better in each offensive category by a tiny margin. I’ll take Arenado.
Honorable Mention:
Bryce Harper – Harper did everything but hit for average this year, and I have a feeling that’s mostly bad luck. Even with all that bad luck, Harper posted the NL’s second-best REW, so it’s not like he wasn’t doing well in clutch spots. I’m guessing he’ll come back with a top-10 MVP performance next season… wherever it is he’s playing.
Matt Carpenter – Lots of power! I called him “Chris” many times by mistake this year, because that’s what a stupid Cardinal with the last name “Carpenter” is to me.
Anthony Rendon – You’ve got to think a LOT of his defensive abilities to get a guy with a 137 OPS+ super high on your player listings. Not that 137 is bad, but Fangraphs has Rendon 2nd in the NL among position players in WAR. That seems unwarranted to me. But I could’ve had him up here. The farther down you go, the harder it is to tell one player from another. He’s not a top-5 guy, in my opinion, but he could be top-10, and I wouldn’t begrudge anyone for seeing him that way.
Trevor Story – Arenado-lite. Slightly worse
Jesus Aguilar – Story without the fielding. Although he can do the splits and flashes a decent glove at first. Still, I don’t want to insult molasses by talking about his speed.
I didn’t consider Kyle Freeland, because his year wasn’t really that special. But THAT’S a fun debate to save for the Cy Young post!
Sorry for the long post. And don’t forget to post your OWN ballots; this is only the third one so far, and we only have a few days left, so I’d love to see more!
** only the FIFTH one so far; I was going for memory, not checking my spreadsheet. Whoops!
Also, Doug, if you could close the Bold tab after Francisco Lindor’s name, I apparently forgot to do so. 🙂
DOOM,
” “Anthony Rendon – You’ve got to think a LOT of his defensive abilities to get a guy with a 137 OPS+ super high on your player listings. Not that 137 is bad, but Fangraphs has Rendon 2nd in the NL among position players in WAR.” ”
FWIW, Baseball Prospectus has him 2nd in the NL in VORP as well, and his 137 OPS+ is superior to Arenado’s 133.
Yeah, but I know Arenado to be a superior defender. I have them exactly tied as batters given their number of PAs. Keep in mind that Rendon played only 136 games this season, and managed 76 fewer PAs than Arenado. I think the offensive difference is there (one with better quality, one with greater quantity), but if they’re about even, I’ll take Arenado’s defense over Rendon’s.
DOOM,
“Yeah, but I know Arenado to be a superior defender. ” Yes, but do you believe him to be even close as a hitter?:
2018 Roadwork
.316/.383/.563 Rendon
.248/.325/.447 Arenado
.276/.328/.452 Story
Not for anything, I’d just once like to see a Rockies position player hit on the road like he does at home. Maybe somebody can PI search it but, apparently, it’s an impossibility…….
does anyone else think Story looks a little bit like Ryan Gosling (who probably didn’t play in high school)?
Larry Walker was better on the road than at home in his MVP season.
and Walker had a career slash of .381/.462/.710 @ Coors….Holliday? .360/.427/.655 Helton .345/.441/.607 Castilla .333/.380/.609
Numbers like these leave the BBWAA incredulous when it’s time to vote for Cooperstown. The numbers are so skewed they are not to be believed but, we’ve had this discussion on here before…
From 1995-2003 (Larry Walker’s full seasons with the Rox) he had a 138 road OPS+; that is, his OPS was 38% better than other players’ road OPSes, and they all had the benefit of hitting at Coors, which was completely eliminated from him in those years. Notable players with career OPS+es between 137-139:
Reggie Smith, Al Rosen, Sherry Magee, Will Clark, Jack Clark (137)
Darryl Strawberry, Carlos Delgado (138)
Reggie Jackson, Jason Giambi, Norm Cash (139)
So he hit like those big boppers, only provided top-notch baserunning and defense. That’s all without the benefit of EVER hitting in Coors in his prime seasons, which all his contemporaries had. I just don’t understand the anti-Walker arguments. Yeah, he he great at Coors; that’s because he was a great hitter, and Coors was a great hitters’ park. He was an excellent hitter, EVERYWHERE, though, so I don’t really understand what’s accomplished by bashing his Coors stats. Holliday and Helton were not on his level, and it’s kind of insulting to compare Castilla to that group.
Barry Bonds hit .336/.468/.693 in Coors, Mark McGwire hit .313/.458/.734, Joey Votto has hit .363/.471/.619, and Albert Pujols hit .293 /.363/.569 there. Walker hit 41% better than his career numbers at Coors; McGwire also had a 41% advantage there. Votto, it’s 27%. Pujols has actually hit worse there, however that works. Paul Goldschmidt has been 19% better at Coors. For Giancarlo Stanton, it’s 35% better. Mike Piazza was 39% better at Coors, and Chipper Jones was 21% better. Those are all the guys with career OPS+ numbers better than Walker and how the took advantage. Some amount of Walker’s is the regular “everyone hits 5% better at home” advantage, which pulls his number from 141 into the high 130s, which is just how guys like Stanton, McGwire, and Piazza have taken advantage of Coors. In other words, Walker’s advantage at Coors is utterly ordinary, and perfectly explicable through the standard way we look at these things. Yes, the numbers are a lot bigger there, because it’s a VERY extreme park in an extreme era. But once you make those adjustments, he’s not honestly that different from a lot of guys, except that his home games were at Coors.
Doom,
Sorry to piss on Walker but, that career home slash line has been duplicated in seasonal notation by only Ruth (once) and Williams (twice). My point is that those home numbers “bleed” into a Colorado ballplayer’s overall numbers and inflate to the point of incredulity. No, I don’t believe Walker’s a Hof’er and, of the above mentioned ballpark 138 OPS+ players, only Jackson is in the Hall.
As far as Arenado, he’s a Gold Glover, and if he stays in Colorado, he’ll continue to post .290 35 125 seasons. But, I wouldn’t expect that to continue if he opts out for free agency nor would I trade Machado even up for him – would you?
And, once again, none of these Rockies, Story and Arenado included, never hit on the road like at home.
I have to side with Doom on the Walker question. Another factor regarding an extreme ballpark situation (and Coors is that like no other—consider the oxygen level adjustment players have to make for instance, coming and going. What big league city has the highest altitude next to Denver? Pittsburg, probably, 1365 feet) is how players on the home team adjust their games to take maximum advantage of the field. The downside of this is readjusting to the other stadia where that advantage doesn’t exist when the team goes on the road. Larry Walker came into his maturity in his age 27 season in Montreal with a 151 OPS+, although he had been a good player for the previous three years. After being trade to the Cards in his age 37 season he put up 144 OPS and the next year a highly respectable 130 figure at age 38, plus 2.4 WAR in basically a half season of play. Early and late he was obviously no creature of Coors Field, and the conclusion that should be drawn, I think, is that the distortion of his stats to the positive at home in Denver is almost undoubtedly matched by a distortion to the negative elsewhere.** The two balancing each other out gives you 72.7 WAR in a career of less than 2000 games. JAWS ranks him 10th among right fielders, which is high, I think, but only because he played over 500 fewer games than most of those above him and around him.
**Whether this is true of other Rockies greats I don’t know. Gallaraga is the only one to judge by, but he was erratic everwhere.
Doom epm
If we’re going to “sample” Walker, let’s take that career OPS+ matching season at age 25 in 1992 Montreal. That year his 141 OPS+ yielded a slash of .301/.353/.506 in a typical Walker “full” season of 143 games. His counting states weren’t inflated by Coors and that 1992 season/ environment is more typical of a standard/average ML season through the last 100 years. Multiply THAT season’s counting stats by 13.5 and that’s what Walker’s career would be w/o Coors. You could also just go to his baseball-reference page, click “advanced batting” and set the environment to 1992 Montreal….
On another note, as Fonzi said once to Cunningham, “I was wrong….about Arenado and Machado”. They are the same player, practically statistically interchangeable except that Machado is 2 years younger (no small significance) and can almost play SS.
Here are Walker’s career stats normalized to 1992 Montreal (3.84 R/G).
Doug,
Thanks. Those numbers give him credit for missed games due to the strike of 1994-1995(since the “system” is “neutralizing” with the 162 game season of 1992).
I just don’t believe the 1994 season (OPS+ of 151) is a good example of his “new found/improved production since he played in only 103 games. But, that being said, while I believe these 1992 neutralized numbers to still be impressive and certainly more credible, even coupled with the fact he ran, fielded, and threw well, i just don’t believe these numbers make a HoF case
Paul:
Let’s carry your logic a further step and look at Walker’s career neutralized to some different parks and different seasons.
Some highlights, since I can’t duplicate Doug’s graphics. First, Wrigley 1999:
1336 runs; 484 doubles; 380 HRs, 1302 RBIs, .308 BA; OPS .948.
Fenway 2000:
1395 runs; 498 doubles; 391 HRs; 1358 RBI; .313 BA; .965 OPS.
Enron 2001:
1357 runs; 489 doubles; 385 HRs; 1325 RBIs; .309 BA; .954 OPS.
And here here are the number that Walker actually put up:
1355 runs; 471 doubles; 383 HRs; 1311 RBIs; .313 BA; .965 OPS.
Now compare these to the supposed inflationary capabilities of Coors in 1997:
1542 runs; 529 doubles; 416 HRs; 1502 RBIs; .327 BA; 1.005 OPS.
What I see here is something quite different from what you see. Given the fallacy of the original premise, that neutralized figures are an adequate means of evaluation,
Walker, it seems from MY cherry picking, would have produced approximately the same career playing for the Cubs, Red Sox, and Astros in that era as he did for the Expos, Rockies, and Cards.
Furthermore, we have to remember that the majority of his career was not played in the relatively run-scarce year of 1992 but in the jet fueled years from 1994 onward. Here are Rogers Hornsby’s yearly averages neutralized to 1968 Dodger Stadium:
81 runs; 31 doubles’ 17 HRs; 81 RBIs; .314 BA; .885 OPS.
Another quibble I have is this: A player, whoever he is, can only ply his trade in the environment he finds himself. Walker didn’t choose to make Coors a batter’s paradise, but when he found himself there he maximized his advantage in a way nobody else has. He consistently batted 50 to 100 points better than his teammates at home, but the other telling thing is he bested them on the road by 40 to 90 points as well. The teams the Rockies opposed at Coors in those years had equal access to the hitting wonders of the park, and, as Doom has sampled above, given their visitor’s status as strangers to the environment, Walker at least equalled and mostly outdid his contemporary sluggers.
Take the above average 4.25 rpg on baseball reference and run with that if you like….he played in the greatest hitter’s park in the history of the sport in the greatest hitting era of all time. He was better than all his teammates but that’s a hollow argument….Bichette, Castilla, etc..I don’t think that’s the standard of greatness. FCS, Dick Allen was better than all his teammates, too-Callison, Simmons, Brock, willie Davis, etc..; and, Jeter and Pete Rose weren’t but somebody (25 guys) has to play for a loser. And, Walker had some average teammates, plenty of them.
But, my point is that Story and Arenado’s stats are inflated by those 81 home games…..as were Walker’s. At .381/.463/.710, he looks like the greatest player of all time. We wouldn’t be having this discussion if the Phillies would have signed him instead of Gregg Jefferies.
As for Rogers Hornsby (and Sisler), they played in a hitter’s era in Sportmans Park. I believe Sisler may have hit .450+ at home one year.
As for Wrigley ….and Fenway, same story to a lesser degree
I think the teammate argument is difficult to make in one respect, and plausible in another, though I don’t think it works as well for Walker in the latter case as I’d have thought.
I think Paul E is right that to say that the fact that Walker was not only better than his teammates at Coors, but also better by a similar margin on the road, just says Walker was the best among the Rockies, which doesn’t concern his absolute quality. But the argument that could work would be one that said the Walker was better than his teammates on the road, but far better at Coors, which would be saying that Walker’s strength was to optimize, rather than just benefit from, his home park environment. I’ve made that argument for Walker.
A quick way to test that proposition would be to look at how the best of the Rockies fared at Coors in terms of their tOPS number, which measures the percent above or below a player’s average performance (ave. = 100) in each park. For example, Walker’s tOPS in Coors is 141, meaning he was 41% more productive at Coors than he was when he was away. Is that an exceptional number in terms of Walker’s teammates?
It turns out: not so much. Here are some teammate comparators:
Helton: 119
Bichette: 145
Castilla: 146
By this measure, at least, Bichette and Castilla used Coors to magnify their hitting skills to a degree slightly greater than Walker.
Bob:
This is getting a little thread-worn, so to speak, but I can’t help correcting a probably unintentionally misleading element in your closing comment: Bichette and Castilla definitely did magnify their hitting skills at Coors to a huge degree, but with what result? Bichette’s career OPS+ in Colorado was 112, but in only one year did it rise above 117. His highest OPS+ away from Coors was 110. Castilla? One year above 115 in Denver, only 106 career. In other home parks his highest figure was 101.
Walker’s LOWEST yearly OPS+ anywhere was 110 in 2000 for the Rockies, an injury year when he played half a season. OPS+, remember, is adjusted to the ballparks played in; it isn’t a raw stat. In 9+ years in Denver Walker’s OPS+ tally goes 131, 116 (another half season injury year), 178, 158, 164, 110, 160, 151, 121, and 166. In the Coors years collectively it was 147. In Montreal 128. In St. Louis 134. Bichette’s was 112 for the Rockies, 105 in Boston, (maybe not the hitter’s paradise of Denver, but just a little east of Eden), 103, 93, and 88 elsewhere. Castilla: 106 in Denver, 101 in his year at Enron, 93 in Washington, 78 in Atlanta, 54 and 46 (yup) in Tampa and San Diego.
Those two guys, as we used to say, couldn’t carry Walker’s bat.
It’s a relative issue, nsb, rather than an absolute one. The question I’m raising is the degree to which each player magnified his skills in Coors (which is different from the season OPS+ measure). The argument for Walker, as I understand it — and as I have made it myself before — is that he deserves credit for having seized on the opportunities of his home field to a greater degree that anyone else, and that is precisely what a great player should be able to do. Of course Bichette and Castilla did not have anything like the batting ability of Walker: on an absolute level, they couldn’t carry his bat. But at Coors they seem to have magnified the talents they did possess in much the same way as Walker, and on that relative question, they seem to be Walker’s peers.
If we want to make a Hall case for Walker, we can’t do it by saying his absolute value was much higher than Bichette and Castilla — that’s true of other, non-Hall-worthy players. But the case could be made on a relative basis, by showing that Walker’s Coors effect was his own doing and not just the field’s doing — that his inflated numbers at Coors went beyond was the park did for other players, in which case, that extra increment was not actually an inflation at all; it reflected akill. That’s harder to do if second rate players with the same opportunity to gauge and exploit their home field’s advantages have Coors inflation stats that actually exceed Walker’s. Since tOPS career figures are supposed to indicate precisely how much better each player hit in each park, that seems to me the best stat to use for this exercise, and it does appear to contradict what I’d understood about Walker and to undercut his Hall case.
EPM, NSB, Doom,
Perhaps the secret to the Colorado sluggers’ success can be found in the underlying results of playing in a cow patch at 5,200 feet?:
BABIP Home / Away, Walker 1995 – 2003 (The Wonder Years)
1995 .324 / .266
1996 .409 / .135
1997 .382 / .346 (with 29 road HR’s)
1998 .435 / .326
1999 .422 / .294
2000 .358 / .298
2001 .421 / .320
2002 .354 / .353
2003 .378 / .256
A pretty significant contrast in 7 of the 9 seasons. That’s a lot of line drives falling in front of OF’ers playing deep due to the elevation…..and more than a few fly balls carrying over the fence.
As far as Walker getting a push from developing/maturing as a hitter during his Denver Days:
.278/.370/.495 Walker career away from home (includes some visits to Denver as an Expo or Card)
.279/.382/.504 Road 1995-2003. This increase might include a “boost’ from the steroids era?
.276/.355/.483 Road – all years except 1995-2003.
Not exactly a Jim Hickman turnaround….
While I don’t wish to dismiss his work with the Cards in 2004 & 2005, Walker was rested and utilized wisely by LaRussa and only amassed 683 PA’s total of excellent production.
I promise, that’s it. I think the cow pasture is the culprit. My apologies for the pertinacious (and persnickety) nature of my responses.
Here’s my list. I don’t like comparing batters and pitchers in the same category so I am showing position players only. For the top 3 in the AL I could not decide in which order to place Trout, Betts and Martinez. So I resorted to my tie-breaker stratagem which is to determine the percentage on base runners driven in after subtracting out those PA in which the batter received a BB or HBP except for the bases loaded situation. I did not subtract out those PA with SH or CI since their numbers are so few. Martinez came in at 23.3% (that led the Majors, 270 PA minimum), Betts at 21.1% and Trout at 18.0%.
AL
1. Martinez
2. Betts
3. Trout
4. Bregman
5. Ramirez
6. Chapman
7. Altuve
8. Lindor
9. Davis
10. Gegorious
NL
1. Yelich
2. Freeman
3. Goldschmidt
4. Arenado
5. Rendon
6. Carpenter
7. Suarez
8. Story
9. Baez
10. Votto
Richard, as you know, I like your %RoBBI stat, and I can see it as a useful tie-breaker here. But I wonder whether it wouldn’t be interesting to buffer it with related stats like RE24 and WPA. If I understand it correctly, RE24 eliminates one issues with comparative %RoBBI, which is that for any potential %RoBBI PA, it makes a difference which bases are occupied, and that’s something reflected in RE24, though that stat doesn’t differentiate between runners advancing and runners scoring. WPA attempts to weight runners advanced to the game goal of winning, and does make that differentiation. Moreover, RE24 and WPA, as compilation stats, balance against %RoBBI as a rate stat.
Among your three candidates, Martinez still comes out on top in two of the three categories, since he exceeds Betts by something like 14% in RE24, but Betts comes out on top in WPA by 11% (Martinez had about 7% more PA, so on balance there’s sort of a wash between the two players in those categories, I think). Trout trails in both compilation categories: about equal to Betts in RE24, and also with just a handful fewer PA, but well behind in WPA.
I think in this case the difference between considering %RoBBI alone and all three stats turns out to be minimal: your order is still reasonable in light of all three stats. But I think it might be more balanced in general to view the stats as a set. (One other issue is whether the DH is a position player.)
Richard, I would be interested in another stat. If you kept the denominatorthe dame but changed the numerator to (AB-H+GDP), what would we learn? The reason I ask is that I’m curious what kind of out-makers these guys were in these RBI situations. If you can run that for me, I have a purely academic interest in the results.
I’ll look into it.
Here is some data for Martinez, Betts and Trout showing ROB/Outs/PA with men on base/AB with men on base.
Martinez/440/190/317/264
Betts/279/114/205/160
Trout/301/115/231/163
Really interesting article on mlb.com on why pitchers that the Astros acquired over the past few seasons have performed markedly better after coming to Houston than before. https://www.mlb.com/news/how-astros-analytics-improved-their-pitchers/c-297698084
Brandon Woodruff’s home run tonight is just the third by a relief pitcher in post-season history, and first in an LCS.
That game wound up WAY too close for comfort, but I can’t say I’m disappointed in the result!
I was at an event last night and didn’t learn about the game result till midnight, so I didn’t experience the way the game tightened. Had I watched it, as a Brooklyn fan, I would have been frustrated that the comeback fell short. But the Brewers are such an attractive team that even though I’d rather see the Bums in the Series, I’d feel ok if it were Milwaukee, especially since I’m reading here the reactions of a Brewer fan much more passionate than I’ll ever be again.
Enjoy your free hamburger, Doom.
I will throw my hat into the ring here in the AL discussion. I originally intended to do an NL ballot as well, but I had a bit of a crazy week, and I don’t feel like I’d be able to defend it very well, nor have much confidence in it at this point.
AL MVP:
1. Mookie Betts
Did everything well for the team with the best record in the baseball. Led the league in WAR, WPA, BA, SLG. He
even stole 30 bases. That all says MVP to me.
2. Alex Bregman
Was the anchor on an Astros team where not everybody produced as expected.
3. Jose Ramirez
Fantastic all-around season
4. Mike Trout
I see that there’s a statistical argument for Trout (as always); he’s amazing. But (call me old-fashioned), I still care
about where his team finishes, and the Angels didn’t finish very well (again). I realize that is not all on him, but I
do think it matters that he wasn’t playing as many games that mattered to the playoff race. See my #10
5. Franciso Lindor
Yes, the Indians won their division handily, but I’m still not sure how they weren’t much better with both Ramirez
and Lindor having stellar seasons.
6. J.D. Martinez
So sad that he’s not still a Tiger. Fantastic year and I believe a difference maker for the Red Sox, but I still have to
dock him a little for not playing the field as much, and not being at a premium defensive position.
7. Matt Chapman
WAR loves him…..I’m a little less impressed, though I’ve admittedly watched very little of the A’s this year. He’s good,
but I don’t see him (or anyone below) really having a strong case as MVP. He also struck out more than anyone on
this list.
8. Whit Merrifield
Perhaps this is high, but the guy had a great season. He’s not as good as Altuve, but he played more this season.
9. Jose Altuve
It’s possible he’s still underrated. Would be higher if he hadn’t missed time.
10. Shohei Ohtani
In my head, when he got hurt, the Angels season fell apart. I looked back to see if I was remembering correctly, and
it seems I was. When Ohtani got hurt, the Angels were 7 games over .500 and 4 games out of the division lead (very
much in the playoff picture). By the time he gets back, the Angels are a .500 team and 12.5 games back. Is that
coincidence? Or did he really play an integral role for them? Not to mention, he did something (albeit briefly)
historic by pitching and playing as a semi-full time hitter. I think that is worthy of recognition.
For the record, I think Yelich is clearly the NL MVP, but I’m not prepared to vote on 2-10.
Josh:
I like your #10 argument.
Thanks. It is unfortunate that Ohtani got hurt. I would have liked to seen him maintain his production over the season and see how it all played out.
Off-topic, but… Yasmani Grandal is the MVP of the NLCS so far… for the Brewers. He had a terrible day yesterday, with a passed ball and some other bad defense. Today, he pinch hit and grounded into double play with the bases jacked and one out. I breathed a sigh of relief!
So, why exactly do you remove Miley after only 74 pitches? With Hader unavailable, seems you would want to stick with the hot hand as long as possible. Whatever the reasoning, it obviously didn’t work out.
Red Sox pitchers tonight allowed a combined 13 runners to reach base via the walk or HPB, tying the post-season record achieved previously by the White Sox (2005 WS), Astros (2005 NLDS) and Indians (1998 ALCS). Only the Indians also reached this total in a 9 inning game.
Alex Bregman has joined Jimmy Sheckard (1910) as the only players with three walks in consecutive post-season games. Surprised Bonds or Ruth hadn’t done so.
I will post the results below. Before I do that, I want to go through my tie-breakers.
When players are tied, the first tiebreaker is the number of ballots on which player appeared.
The second tiebreaker is the higher finisher. In other words, 1st-place votes, or 2nd-place votes if there be no 1st-place votes, or 3rd-place votes if there be no 1st nor 2nd, etc., etc.
Final tie-breaker, if players have appeared on the same number of ballots and in the same positions (this happens most often with a BUNCH of guys getting a single 10th-place vote), the tiebreaker is the first person named, so as to give more credit to early votes. Ideally, this means there are never any ties. I think I’ve foreseen all possible circumstances here… we’ll find out, I guess!
AL Results (first-place votes in parentheses, total points after the comma):
1. Mookie Betts (4), 74
2. Mike Trout (2), 54
3. Alex Bregman, 44
4. JD Martinez, 39
5. Jose Ramirez, 38
6. Francisco Lindor, 31
7. Matt Chapman, 25
8. Mitch Haniger, 9
9. Khris Davis, 8
10. Blake Snell, 7
11. Justin Verlander, 6
12. Chris Sale, 5
13. Jose Altuve, 4
14. Whit Merrifield, 3
15. Trevor Bauer, 2
16. Aaron Hicks, 2
17. Tommy Pham, 1
18. Manny Machado, 1
19. Shohei Ohtani, 1
Some final thoughts: The top seven were named on all 6 ballots, so it seems pretty obvious that they were going to be the top seven players. I find it kind of hilarious how the point totals went 9-8-7-6-5-4-3-2 at one point.
Paul E had the top nine all listed on his ballot, which is pretty impressive. Josh Davis had the top 7, nearly in order, too.
NL Results:
1. Christian Yelich, (4), 65
2. Javy Baez, 33
3. Jacob DeGrom (1), 31
4. Freddie Freeman, 28
5. Max Scherzer, 23
6. Paul Goldschmidt, 20
7. Trevor Story, 19
8. Lorenzo Cain, 19
9. Nolan Arenado, 16
10. Aaron Nola, 9
11. Matt Carpenter, 8
12. Ronald Acuna, 7
13. Kyle Freeland, 5
14. Eugenio Suarez, 3
15. Brandon Nimmo, 3
16. Oscar Albies, 2
17. Anthony Rendon, 2
18. Jesus Aguilar, 1
19. Ben Zobrist, 1
In the AL, the top seven finishers all appeared on all ballots. There were only four such players in the NL, and they finished 1st, 2nd, 4th, and 9th! That actually seems really difficult to pull off mathematically – but we all liked Arenado just enough to name him, but not enough to put him high up. Story topped Cain by virtue of appearing on 4 ballots to Cain’s 3. Weirdly, there were exactly 19 players named in both the AL and NL.
Bob Eno had the closest to a consensus ballot. He nailed the top three in order, and he had all the top nine on his ballot, as well as number 11. The rest of us were sort of all over the place in a pretty wide-open field. I think Josh Davis said it best when he refused to vote in the NL: Yelich is the MVP, and the rest is just too complicated to sort out!