This post is for voting and discussion in the 135th round of balloting for the Circle of Greats (COG). The Baseball Writers of America threw us a curve this year, with no players elected to the Hall of Fame. So we will do likewise, and not elect anyone to the Circle of Greats. But, we will still have an election to fill the ballot for next year’s Circle of Greats election. Rules and lists are after the jump.
Appearing on the the Circle of Greats ballot this year are players born in 1976. As usual, to be eligible, this new group of 1976-born players must have played at least 10 seasons in the major leagues or generated at least 20 Wins Above Replacement (“WAR”, as calculated by baseball-reference.com, and for this purpose meaning 20 total WAR for everyday players and 20 pitching WAR for pitchers). This group of 1976-born candidates joins those players on the secondary ballot to comprise the full list of players eligible to receive your votes.
For this election, voters must select three and only three eligible players, with the one player appearing on the most ballots cast in the round elevated to the main ballot for the next Circle of Greats election. In the case of a tie between two or more secondary ballot candidates, ballots will be discarded in the reverse order in which they were cast until the tie is broken (so, vote early to be sure your vote counts).
Players born in 1976, who appear on half or more of the ballots that are cast, win four added future rounds of main ballot eligibility. Such players who appear on 25% or more of the ballots cast, but less than 50%, earn two added future rounds of ballot eligibility. One additional round of eligibility is earned by any such player who appears on at least 10% of the ballots cast, or finishes in the top 9 (including ties) in ballot appearances. Any such player receiving one or more votes, but appearing on less than 10% of the ballots cast, will appear on the secondary ballot for the next Circle of Greats election.
Players on the secondary ballot who fail to win elevation to the main ballot, but appear on half or more of the ballots that are cast, win four added future rounds of secondary ballot eligibility. Such players who appear on 25% or more of the ballots cast, but less than 50%, earn two added future rounds of ballot eligibility. One additional round of eligibility is earned by any such player who appears on at least 10% of the ballots cast. Secondary ballot candidates who exhaust their eligibility will drop from that ballot, but will become eligible for possible reinstatement in a future Redemption round election.
All voting for this round closes at 11:59 PM EST Sunday, February 7th, while changes to previously cast ballots are allowed until 11:59 PM EST Friday, February 5th.
If you’d like to follow the vote tally, and/or check to make sure I’ve recorded your vote correctly, you can see my ballot-counting spreadsheet for this round here: COG 1976 Vote Tally. I’ll be updating the spreadsheet periodically with the latest votes. Initially, there is a row in the spreadsheet for every voter who has cast a ballot in any of the past rounds, but new voters are entirely welcome — new voters will be added to the spreadsheet as their ballots are submitted. Also in the spreadsheet is a column for each of the holdover candidates; additional player columns from the new born-in-1976 group will be added to the spreadsheet as votes are cast for them.
Choose your three players from the lists below of eligible players. The current holdovers are listed below in order of the number of future rounds (including this one) through which they are assured eligibility, and alphabetically when the future eligibility number is the same.
Holdovers:
| SECONDARY BALLOT | ELIGIBILITY |
|---|---|
| Todd Helton | 11 rounds |
| Willie Randolph | 11 rounds |
| Minnie Minoso | 5 rounds |
| Bobby Abreu | 3 rounds |
| Ken Boyer | 3 rounds |
| Monte Irvin | 3 rounds |
| Billy Williams | 2 rounds |
| Don Drysdale | this round ONLY |
| Andy Pettitte | this round ONLY |
| Reggie Smith | this round ONLY |
The 1976 birth-year players are listed below in order of the number of seasons each played in the majors, and alphabetically among players with the same number of seasons played.
Everyday Players (born in 1976, ten or more seasons played in the major leagues or at least 20 WAR):
A.J. Pierzynski
Paul Konerko
Jerry Hairston
Edgar Renteria
Alfonso Soriano
Lance Berkman
Ramon Hernandez
Jose Guillen
Adam Kennedy
Carlos Lee
Michael Young
Ramon Castro
Troy Glaus
Wes Helms
Aubrey Huff
Reed Johnson
Brian Schneider
Michael Barrett
Pat Burrell
Abraham Nunez
Chris Woodward
Eric Byrnes
Juan Encarnacion
Jason Michaels
Corky Miller
Scott Podsednik
Cody Ransom
Ross Gload
Pitchers (born in 1976, ten or more seasons played in the major leagues or at least 20 WAR):
Kyle Farnsworth
Randy Wolf
Ted Lilly
Javier Vazquez
Scott Downs
Freddy Garcia
Jason Grilli
J.C. Romero
Matt Thornton
Scott Linebrink
Carl Pavano
Brad Lidge
Joel Peralta
Jeff Weaver
Scott Elarton
Kelvim Escobar
Eric Gagne
Sidney Ponson
As is our custom with Circle of Great elections, here is a factoid and related trivia question for each of the new players on the ballot.
-
A.J. Pierzynski‘s 1936 games caught are the most for any catcher with no games at any other field position. Which HoF catcher held that record before Pierzynski? Rick Ferrell
-
Paul Konerko recorded 100 games at first base for thirteen consecutive seasons (2000-12), the most by any White Sox player. Which first baseman holds the AL record for most such consecutive seasons? Joe Judge (1916-30)
-
Alfonso Soriano led his league in runs scored and stolen bases in 2002, while recording 200+ hits with fewer than 25 walks. Which player has the only other such season? Lou Brock (1967)
-
Jerry Hairston played over 400 games in the field through age 28, all at second base. Then, he transformed into a super-utility player over the final 10 seasons of his career, playing 10+ games at least once at every position except pitcher and catcher. Which other two players, like Hairston, recorded 100+ games at 2B, 3B, SS, LF and CF? Woodie Held and Willie Bloomquist (both also played 100 games in RF)
-
Edgar Renteria played 120+ games at SS for 13 consecutive seasons (1997-2009). Who is the only shortstop to post more such seasons consecutively? Luis Aparicio (1956-71)
-
Randy Wolf was an All-Star in his 2003 season for the Phillies, with a .600 W-L% in 200+ IP despite an ERA+ under 95. Who was the last AL All-Star pitcher to record such a season? Ken Schrom (1986)
-
Ramon Hernandez caught over 1000 games in his career, including 200+ games for four franchises (A’s, Padres, Orioles, Reds). Who was the first catcher of the modern era (since 1901) to post such a career? Wally Schang (1435 games caught, incl. 200+ with A’s, Yankees, Red Sox and Browns)
-
Kyle Farnsworth is one of 10 pitchers to allow more HR than Games Pitched in a rookie season of 125+ IP. Which one of those pitchers later won the Cy Young Award? Zack Greinke (2004)
-
Lance Berkman posted four seasons with 100+ strikeouts and more RBI, the most by an NL player. Which two players have posted more such seasons consecutively? Ken Griffey, Jr. (1996-2000), Alex Rodriguez (1998-2002)
-
Michael Young posted OPS+ under 100 in 2003, despite batting .300 with 200+ hits. Who is the only player with more than one such season? Juan Pierre (2001, 2003)
-
Ted Lilly pitched over 900 innings in each league in a career of fewer than 2000 IP. Who was the first pitcher to record such a career? Shane Rawley (1978-89)
-
Carlos Lee is one of 29 players to bat .300 and slug .500 in 2000+ National League PA aged 30-33. Which one of those players recorded a lower NL OPS than Lee for those seasons? Daniel Murphy
-
Adam Kennedy posted career totals including less than 30% of hits for extra bases, but more XBH than BB. Which HoF infielder of the integration era (since 1947) did the same? Bill Mazeroski (2016 H, 494 XBH, 447 BB)
-
Javier Vazquez recorded 10 to 16 wins in each of the final twelve seasons of his career. Who is the one other pitcher to do the same? Mark Buehrle
-
Jose Guillen posted only an 80 OPS+ through age 26, before improving to 114 OPS+ aged 27-32, in 2000+ PA in each period. Which other expansion era outfielder, like Guillen, posted OPS+ under 90 through age 26 and over 100 aged 27-32, in 2000+ PA in each period? Carlos Gomez
-
Matt Thornton posted ten consecutive seasons (2006-15) with 60+ appearances. Who is the only left-hander with a longer streak of such seasons? Mike Myers (1996-2007)
-
Reed Johnson made his post-season debut at age 36 with pinch-hit appearances for the Braves in his first three games. Who is the only older Braves’ player to make the same post-season debut? Dave Martinez (2001) age 37
-
Brian Schneider caught 100+ games for the Expos/Nationals, Phillies and Mets. Who is the most recent player to catch 100+ games for two of those franchises? Wilson Ramos (100+ games with Nationals and Mets, and also the Rays)
-
Aubrey Huff made 10 post-season PH appearances for the 2012 world champion Giants. Which player recorded more such games in a single post-season for a team that did not advance to the World Series? Orlando Palmeiro (2004 Astros) 12 PH games
-
Jason Grilli posted consecutive seasons (2012-13) for the Pirates aged 35-36 with 50+ IP and 130 ERA+. Who is the oldest Pirate pitcher to post those totals in back-to-back seasons pitching exclusively in relief? Roy Face (1966-67) age 38-39
-
Scott Downs posted three seasons aged 31-35 with 200 ERA+ in 50+ IP. Who is the only pitcher with more such seasons at those ages? Joe Nathan (2006-09)
-
J.C. Romero matched his career best 81 appearances playing for the world champion 2008 Phillies. Which Phillies reliever led his league in appearances in a pennant-winning season? Jim Konstanty (1950)
-
Freddy Garcia was a perfect 3-0 in the 2005 post-season for the world champion White Sox, including series-clinching wins in the ALDS and WS. Who is the only pitcher to start and win more series-clinching games in a single post-season? Andy Pettitte (2009)
-
Ramon Castro averaged one HR every 16 PA at age 34 playing for the 2010 White Sox. Who is the oldest White Sox catcher to match or exceed that HR rate in a 100+ PA season? Carlton Fisk (1988) age 40
-
Wes Helms smacked 23 home runs for Milwaukee in 2003, the lone qualified season of his career. Which other Brewer third baseman matched or bettered that HR total in his first qualified season? Casey McGehee (2010)
-
Troy Glaus’s 47 HR led the AL in 2000. Who were the home run champs the only time Angel players led the AL in home runs in consecutive seasons? Bobby Grich (1981) and Reggie Jackson (1982)
-
Scott Linebrink posted four straight seasons (2004-07) with 70+ appearances and 70+ IP. Which two pitchers have the only longer streaks of such seasons? Aaron Heilman (2006-10), Tyler Clippard (2010-14)
-
Pat Burrell ranks 3rd in career LF games for the Phillies. Who is the only Phillie left-fielder with more HR than Burrell’s Phillie total of 251? Del Ennis (259 HR as a Phillie)
-
Chris Woodward stroked a double in the lone PA of his post-season career. Which player matched Woodward’s feat, and recorded zero extra-base hits in his regular season career? Steve Torrealba (only 2 regular season hits, both singles)
-
Carl Pavano’s 18 wins for the 2004 Marlins established a new franchise record. Which pitcher broke that franchise mark the next season? Dontrelle Willis (22 wins in 2005)
-
Michael Barrett posted identical totals of 16 HR and 32 doubles in consecutive seasons (2004-05). Which other catcher posted multiple seasons with a double-digit HR total and exactly twice as many doubles? Matt Wieters (2010, 2017)
-
Abraham Nunez posted a .375 post-season BA for the 2005 Cardinals. Who is the only Cardinal third baseman with a higher BA (min. 20 AB) in a single post-season? David Freese (2011) .397 BA
-
Joel Peralta made a franchise record 296 appearances for the Rays from 2011 to 2014. Which pitcher broke that record the next season? Jake McGee (297 games as a Ray)
-
Brad Lidge is the only pitcher to record two seasons with 30+ saves and an ERA over 5, and the only pitcher to do so for a pennant-winning team (the 2009 Phillies). Which other pitcher posted those totals for a team that played in a league championship series? Joe Borowski (2007 Indians)
-
Cody Ransom played fewer than 40 games in eight of his first nine seasons, tied for the most such seasons by players other than pitchers and catchers? Who was the first such player to begin his career this way? Lou Klimchock (1958-66) played 40+ games only in 1961
-
Scott Podsednik posted an age 34 qualified season in 2010 with more stolen bases than extra-base hits. Who is the oldest player with such a season in the modern era (since 1901)? Rickey Henderson (2000) age 41
-
Corky Miller failed to play 40 games in any of his eleven seasons, the longest such career by a non-pitcher. Whose record did Miller break? Matt Sinatro (10 seasons)
-
Jason Michaels stroked 42 extra-base hits for Cleveland in his lone qualified season in 2006 , but managed only 55 RBI. Which Indian player recorded the lowest RBI to XBH ratio in a qualified season with 40+ extra-base hits? Grady Sizemore (2006) with 16% of team XBH but only 9% of team RBI
-
Eric Byrnes played 400 games for the A’s and D-Backs. Which teammate of Byrnes played 250 games for each of those franchises? Erubiel Durazo (but it wasn’t easy getting him to the A’s; the trade was ARI—>Durazo—>OAK—>PTBNL—>TOR—>F. Lopez—>CIN—>E. Dessens—>ARI)
-
Jeff Weaver played with his brother Jered on the 2006 Angels. Which other pair of brother pitchers played for an LA-based team? Ramon/Pedro Martinez (1992-93 Dodgers)
-
Juan Encarnacion posted a career best 94 RBI in 2003; it was the last time a Marlin right-fielder recorded as many RBI as SO in a qualified season. Which Marlin right-fielder has the most such seasons? Mark Kotsay (1998-2000)
-
Ross Gload is one of eleven White Sox players to bat .320 in a season of 150-300 PA (and is the only one to do so twice). Which one of those players is in the Hall of Fame? Frank Thomas (1990)
-
Eric Gagne was the NL CYA winner in 2003 on the strength of a 0.692 WHIP and a majors-leading 55 saves. Which reliever posted a lower WHIP while leading his league in saves? Craig Kimbrel (2012)
-
Sidney Ponson led his league in CG in 2004, despite an ERA over 5 and a WHIP over 1.5. Before Ponson, who was the last pitcher to do the same? (For bonus points, other than being the first start of Ponson’s career, what is unique about this game?) Bobo Newsom (1938)
-
Scott Elarton’s 4.81 ERA in 2000 is the highest qualifying mark by an NL pitcher in a season with a .700 W-L%. Which AL pitcher has the only higher ERA in such a season? Roxie Lawson (1937 Tigers)
-
Kelvim Escobar posted a career best 4.9 WAR for the Angels in 2007, and then pitched only one more game in his career. Which pitcher led his league in WAR in his final season? Sandy Koufax (1966), Jim Devlin (1877)
1) Ray Schalk
No, but a good guess.
Rick Ferrell
10) Juan Pierre
14) Mussina
Not Mussina. He had several seasons with more than 16 wins.
#9: Ken Griffey Jr (1996-2000) and Alex Rodriguez (1998-2002; plus 1996 & 2007).
#34: Joe Borowski, CLE, 2007 (45 SV, 5.07 ERA).
#45: Roxie Lawson, DET, 1937, 18-7, 5.26
Lawson’s .547 W-L% for his career is the highest in the live ball era for pitchers with 750 IP and ERA+ under 90.
#36: Rickey Henderson, OAK, 1998, 39 years old (31 XBH, 66 SB).
There’s someone even older.
40 is just Ramon and Pedro Martinez, right?
Yes, on the 1992-93 Dodgers, and also on the 1999-2000 Red Sox.
Answer to #14: Mark Buehrle
Answer to #31: Ed Ott in 1977-1978.
Not Ott. He never had double-digit HR.
Then it’s Matt Wieters in 2010 and 2017
Billy Williams, Willie Randolph, Don Drysdale
Our first vote. Thanks, Jeff.
Answer to #11: Matt Sinatro with 10 such seasons.
That should be answer to #37, not #11 to which the answer is Shane Rawley
#43: Craig Kimbrel, 2012
13) Bill Mazeroski, I believe.
20) Roy Face, ages 38 and 39. Can’t imagine there’s someone older.
Concur. I first thought Tekulve, and he did do it at ages 39-40, but he was with the Phillies by then.
Face it was.
Both Grilli and Face totaled 35 saves for those two seasons. But Grilli’s W-L was only 1-8, compared to 13-11 for Face. For his career, Face had decisions in 21.7% of his relief outings, almost double Grilli’s mark of 11.9%.
41) Is it Gary Sheffield (1994 & 1996)?
Right you are. But, it looks like I messed up the question, because I was looking for a different answer.
I’ve revised the question slightly to correct my mistake.
Is it Mark Kotsay you’re looking for?
It is Kotsay with three seasons to Sheffield’s two.
25) In a question tailor-made for me, in that it’s about the Brewers and no one but a Brewers fan would remember this guy as a 3B, the answer is Ryan Braun, who belted 34 HR as a rookie and played no other positions in the field other than third.
But, Braun did not have qualifying PA that year.
What do you think – has Braun played his last ML game, or could he be somebody’s DH or fourth outfielder?
Aha! It’s Casey McGehee! Someone even more recent!
As for Braun’s last ML game, I just can’t imagine that another team would be interested in him, what with all the baggage he has. I could imagine that, if the NL did adopt the DH for 2021, I wouldn’t be surprised if Milwaukee re-signed him. So for now, I’m going to assume that he has played his last game. But if the NL does re-adopt the DH, I would bet on Milwaukee signing him again.
36) I have to assume it’s Rickey Henderson, age-41 season.
You assume correctly. Eric had the right guy, but the wrong season.
BTW, #15 should be right up your alley.
26) This is without looking it up, but I’m going to say it’s Bobby Grich ’81 and Reggie Jackson ’82.
Would #30 be Dontrelle Willis?
Ken Boyer, Todd Helton, Don Drysdale
28) Must be Del Ennis. There haven’t been that many HR hitters in Phillies’ history.
Answer to #2: Joe Judge 15 seasons
Answer to #4: Woodie Held and Willie Bloomquist who both also played 100+ games in RF.
***********My Ballot*********
(Just trying to help Doug find this, what with all the trivia answers here at the early part of the post)
Don Drysdale
Todd Helton
Ken Boyer
This was my exact ballot from last year. I see no reason to change it. I will do a bit of advocacy for each of my guys, if anyone is interested.
Drysdale is the player whom I view as the clear-cut best player on the Secondary Ballot at the moment. Yes, he was overshadowed by Koufax in his later years and the Dodger offense in his early years. But in the sort of interregnum period of the late-50s and early-60s, Drydsale was the best player on the team. The team, of course, was no longer the best, and I believe that has hurt his reputation. I also think people put too much stock in his perceived “big game failures.” I believe Bill James had a big article about it once, maybe in The Politics of Glory. And yes, while there is documented evidence of Drysdale losing big games, he had a career 2.95 postseason ERA – identical to his 2.95 regular season ERA. Additionally, Drysdale gets extra points for me due to his results as a hitter. a career 45 OPS+ is beyond respectable for a pitcher. Fun fact: in 1965, Drysdale was used 18 times as a pinch hitter, in addition to the 40 games he pitched. In those 58 games and 138 PAs, he batted .300/.331/.508. Marty Marion once won an MVP award with a .267/.324/.362 line, so I’d say that Drysdale was swinging the bat well enough that year!
Helton faces from this group the same thing he’s going to face on however many BBWAA ballots he ends up on. He was a worse hitter than Coors Field said, but a better hitter than his biggest detractors allow for. He has nearly a 200-point difference in OPS between home and road. I get that it’s huge. Of course, Ron Santo and Wade Boggs have more than a 150-point gap in theirs, and they played in less extreme hitters’ parks, so that’s to be expected. (In fact, if you use the tOPS+ measure on Baseball-Reference, they both clock in at 118 at home, 82 on the road; Helton gets 119-81. So essentially the same.) Helton played in the biggest hitters’ park in a big-hitting era; we should expect that kind of a difference. And I know there are some who say that, “Yeah, but if you double his road stats…” Okay, we can play that game. But a lot of Hall of Fame hitters never get there if you double their road numbers.Ryne Sandberg was a .269/.326/.412 road hitter. Duke Snider’s road numbers (.287/.369/.511) are closer to non-HOF teammate Gil Hodges’ overall numbers (.273/.359/.487) than with Snider’s overall slash line (.295/.380/.540). This is normal for players in extreme parks; that doesn’t mean that players in extreme parks weren’t great players! That’s why we have many measures to adjust for that. When we use those, Todd Helton comes out as a valuable player, and in fact as worth enough to merit COG consideration. (Though, honestly, I think he’s probably on the outside from my perspective, too.)
Boyer is the most interesting of the lot. He won an MVP award, which is great. But a lot of people will point out that WAR doesn’t consider him to be the NL’s best player in ’64 – and it’s not particularly close. This is one of those cases (Andre Dawson and Willie Stargell are the similar players that I can think of off the top of my head) where I think people are too harsh on those award wins. Not because they were right – they were clearly wrong. But because the player in question could easily have won in a different year, but didn’t (for Dawson, it’s ’81; for Stargell, it’s ’73). Boyer had a case in both 1960 and ’61. In ’60, the winner (Dick Groat) had less WAR than Boyer; and the WAR leader (Willie Mays) bested Boyer’s OPS by only four points (.936-.932)! In ’61, the only players to finish with more WAR than Boyer were Willie Mays and Hank Aaron. And the player who won the award was Frank Robinson! If there are three players to finish ahead of you, I don’t know if you could do any better than that collection. But the main thing that hurt Boyer is that a lot of his best years (1959-1962), the Cardinals were a second-division team. That’s not the norm for that franchise. Like Drysdale, an accident of chronology had more to do with Boyer’s Awards fate than actual skill or on-field success. As a two-way player, Boyer was excellent. The only knock on him is that his peak was a little short. But I think he merits discussion, if perhaps not outright election.
32) Didn’t notice this question before. The answer is very obvious: David Freese. Freese, in 63 ABs, had 25 hits (.397). He was World Series MVP, which many people remember, for hitting .348/.464/.696, which is obviously incredible in the most extreme of circumstances. What most people don’t remember is what a step DOWN that was from the NLCS. Against the Brewers (would it be a post of mine without mentioning Milwaukee?), he batted .545/.600/1.091 (no, I did NOT skip a column; he actually batted .545 with a .600 OBP and a 1.091 SLG in a six-game series!) to win that MVP, too. It may honestly be the greatest postseason by a hitter in ML history, particularly considering how many series & games he played. His overall line for the postseason was .397/.465/.762 in 71 PAs.
“No, I didn’t skip a column” – Love that.
Yep, that one was pretty obvious.
There’s some more low hanging fruit out there.
Highest OPS in a best-of-7+ post-season series. Min. 15 PA.
2.027 – Hideki Matsui (2009 WS)
2.022 – Babe Ruth (1928 WS)
1.994 – Barry Bonds (2002 WS)
1.948 – David Ortiz (2013 WS)
1.932 – Lloyd McClendon (1992 NLCS)
1.882 – Will Clark (1989 NLCS)
1.850 – Daniel Murphy (2015 NLCS)
1.799 – Mark Grace (1989 NLCS)
1.792 – Reggie Jackson (1977 WS)
1.748 – Manny Ramirez (2008 NLCS)
1.713 – Nelson Cruz (2011 ALCS)
1.691 – David Freese (2011 NLCS)
The players from this group, with their OVERALL postseason numbers from the season in question (3+ round postseasons only):
Bonds, 2002 – .356/.581/.933 (74 PA) = 1.515
Freese, 2011 – .397/.465/.762 (71 PA) = 1.227
Ortiz, 2013 – .353/.500/.706 (68 PA) = 1.206
Matsui, 2009 – .349/.461/.674 (52 PA) = 1.135
Murphy, 2015 – .328/.391/.724 (64 PA) = 1.115
Cruz, 2011 – .225/.314/.645 (70 PA) = .959
Manny Ramirez’s 2008 postseason would rank above Bonds’ ’02, believe it or not, but the Dodgers failed to make the World Series in spite of Manny’s 1.746 OPS. And here are two bonus David Ortiz seasons, because that dude was bonkers in those Boston World Series seasons:
Ortiz, 2004 – .400/.515/.764 (68 PA) = 1.279
Ortiz, 2007 – .370/.508/.696 (62 PA) = 1.204
Fun fact: David Ortiz was actually a BAD postseason hitter in the other postseasons of his career; in 9 postseason series outside of ’04, ’07, and ’13, Ortiz had only 2 series with an OPS over .700, while out of the 9 series in championship years, Ortiz had only one series with an OPS less than .900 – and it was well over 1.000 in most of those series! Interesting how the cookie crumbles.
Minnie Minoso, Billy Williams, Bobby Abreu
#11: Would that be Shane Rawley (not sure if he was the earliest)?
#5: Luis Aparicio, I think.
#22: I’d think it would be Jim Konstanty in 1950
Answer to #23 is Andy Pettitte in 2009.
24) Is it Carlton Fisk? I hope so. I see he did it at age 40 (once every 15.6 PA).
Answer to #7: Wally Schang
Hello! Just to clarify, all of the players born in 1976 are automatically moving to consideration for the Secondary Ballot, even though they have not yet received initial consideration for the Primary Ballot? I’m just making sure, since I believe all other players have so far received at least an initial consideration for the Primary Ballot before being removed. I know we didn’t always have a Secondary Ballot, so the process is a bit different now. For the sake of consistency, I would have preferred to have also waited and considered these folks as part of a Primary Ballot first, before considering them as part of the Secondary Ballot.
That being said, I would NOT have voted for any of these new players on the Primary Ballot at this point. So at least from my perspective, the ultimate result might be the same,
For the Secondary Ballot, I’m voting for:
-Willie Randolph
-Andy Pettitte
-Lance Berkman
Thanks!
Thanks for seeking clarification.
I am keeping the rules the same for the 1976 players. If they get 10%, they go to the primary. If they get any votes, but less than 10%, they go to the secondary.
That makes sense! Thank you for clarifying!
[Have to say, I’m spending too much time on this, but it’s fun on a snowy day – thanks for the ?s.]
#42: Frank Thomas, perhaps?
#8: I’m thinking Zack Greinke in 2004.
#27: Tyler Clippard and Aaron Heilman
#3 Lou Brock, 1967
Vote: Minoso, Boyer, and Billy Williams
It is a little sad to me (an maybe a little telling of my age) that Harold Baines made the HOF while Minoso is still on the outside. Similarly, I think Boyer should be in, but it appears now that Scott Rolen may make it (and Boyer might not ever get in).
Answer to #3: Lou Brock ion 1967.
#38: Maybe Grady Sizemore in 2006?
Answer to #38: Grady Sizemore in 2006. 76 RBI and 92 EBH for a ratio of .826.
Here are my 3 selections:
Billy Williams
Todd Helton
Minnie Minoso
#29: Steve Torrealba of the 2001-02 Braves appears to fit the question, though Archie Bradley currently does too (but he still has time to change that).
Good find on Bradley. His post-season XBH was a 2-RBI triple in the 2017 NLWC game. It came in the 7th inning with his team (the D-Backs) leading by one. Really strange he wasn’t pinch-hit for, as the D-Backs certainly had options, having used no bench players to that point in the game. It’s a good thing Bradley came through, because he stayed in the game to pitch the 8th and allowed a pair of solo HR.
#44: Bobo Newsom (1938)
#39: Erubiel Durazo
Answer to #16, and I hope it hasn’t already been posted, is Mike Myers with 12 consecutive seasons.
The quintessential LOOGY, Myers had at least 20 more appearances than IP in all but the first and last of those 12 seasons, including 6 seasons with a differential of 30 or more, one of which (in 2006) is among only eight with 60+ appearances and twice as many appearances as IP.
Drysdale, Abreu, Smith
Vote:
Don Drysdale
Minnie Minoso
Willie Randolph
Okay, #46 took a while to get, but is it Jim Devlin?
Well, Devlin’s final season in 1877 does meet the specs, but I was actually thinking about someone more recent, someone in the COG, in fact.
I also thought it was Devlin. The only other I can think of is Koufax who would have led all players with his pitching WAR alone had not his awful hitting dragged his overall WAR down a few points.
Drysdale, Abreu, Minoso
Answer to #35: Lou Klimchock
Klimchock is correct.
Klimchock is famous for being the only teenager to homer off of a teenage pitcher. But, Klimchock also held a record for more than 50 years with Mickey Mantle, Mel Ott and others, before it was finally broken by a current player. What is that record?
#33: Jake McGee
McGee beat out Peralta by one game, with 297 appearance over 6 seasons. He may have the record for a while, as the closest current Ray (at this moment) is Diego Castillo, with only 130 games.
#17: Dave Martinez (2001)
That post-season debut for Martinez was also his major league swan song, after almost 2000 games over 16 seasons.
#18: Wilson Ramos
Wow, Doug. You said there was some low-hanging fruit out there. But… WOW. I cannot BELIEVE I didn’t get this one.
46) Sandy Bleepin’ Koufax
Obviously it’s Sandy Koufax. I would’ve known the answer to this question when I was ten years old, and there was no such thing as WAR yet. Yikes. We all deserve some sort of punishment for being so slow on the uptake.
Koufax was my first guess but BB-Ref didn’t show him leading the NL in WAR in 1966.
Koufax led in NL pitching WAR, but you’re right that the overall NL WAR leader, including pitching, batting, baserunning and defense, was Juan Marichal with 9.8 WAR to Koufax’s 9.7.
Yeah, I thought he probably led in pitching WAR. After Koufax the only people I considered were guys that got banned like Cicotte. I brute forced to find Devlin, but in hindsight he’s a somewhat obvious guess – the WAR leaders in his time were always pitchers.
21) Joe Nathan! It’s Joe Nathan!!!!
This took me like 20 minutes of manual searching through relievers. I didn’t even think of him until that point. You know what’s all the more impressive about his 4 seasons of 50+ IP and a 200+ ERA+? I’ll count down the 3 fun facts I learned about these seasons:
#3) In the four seasons in question, not only did they take place at an advanced age; they were consecutive seasons.
#2) He didn’t “barely” clear the bar here. While one of the seasons was a 210, the others were 229, 284, and 316 – for a cumulative 252 ERA+ in that four-year span!
#1) Hands-down, this is the winner: Nathan got four years in the age-31 to 35 span… without an age-35 season! Nathan didn’t pitch at all in 2010, but came back to post another four-year run of: 191, 257, 250, 259. Not too shabby.
Bonus fun fact: for the 10-season span of 2004-2013 (of which Nathan played in 9 seasons), he averaged: 66.7 IP, 39 saves, and had a cumulative ERA+ of 204. Mariano Rivera over the same 10 years (his final 10 seasons) averaged 63.3 IP, 37 saves, and had a cumulative ERA+ of 230. Joe Nathan has a legitimate Hall of Fame case, if A.) we grade relievers as their own “thing,” and B.) anyone wants to take the time to build it. (He has basically no value outside that 10-year span, so it is a case based on what’s here. But I would also encourage anyone to read this recent article on Bill James’s site if you’re interested in how he’s tried evaluating relievers. There’s a preliminary article here if you want to read that one first.)
Fun fact about Nathan. He didn’t allow a run over the final 15 games of his career, the longest such streak among retired players (though Jenrry Mejia, currently in the Red Sox organization, has a 16 game streak at this moment, and hasn’t played in the majors since 2015; Mejia, incidentally, is the youngest Met to start a game in the last 35 seasons, since Dwight Gooden).
Since Nathan missed a year, I’ll add the 2003 season to give him an even 10 seasons. Over that period (2003-13), Nathan’s RA was 2.37, while the average runs scored by the opponents he pitched against was 4.74. If you’re twice as good as the average pitcher for a decade, yeah I guess I could (barely) make a HoF case based on that. But, it would be a lot easier if it was 15 seasons, rather than just 10.
His best comp among relievers already in the Hall is undoubtedly Bruce Sutter, as their career length (as relievers) and career WAR are about the same. Nathan clearly has the better ERA and WHIP, relative to era, and his RA9 vs opp RA9 for his best 10 seasons is much better than Sutter, at 2.37 better than league (as above) vs. only 1.04 for Sutter (but a bit closer when adjusted for era). But, Sutter has the CYA, two other top-3 finishes and a top-5 (Nathan has only a 4th and 5th in CYA voting). Sutter was also the primary reliever on a WS champion (there’s your Milwaukee angle), and he averaged 5 outs per appearance, versus only 3 for Nathan (though, Nathan, of course, wasn’t given that opportunity). And, despite that extra workload per appearance, Sutter made only 10% fewer appearances over his 10 best seasons than Nathan. Regardless of whether it’s a “fair” comparison for Nathan, to me, those two extra outs are a huge difference, both quantitatively and in terms of value to the team. So, if Sutter is the threshold to clear, it’s not obvious to me that Nathan does it.
Yeah, Doug, I think you pretty much hit the nail on the head with the case for Joe Nathan.
The Sutter comparison is a good one. Sutter pitched more innings at a higher leverage index, so Sutter has a number of advantages. But purely as a matter of run-prevention, Nathan is hard to top. Nathan finished short of having a qualifying career (min: 1000 IP; Nathan had 923), but if he had qualified for career leaderboards, he’d rank 4th all-time in ERA+, behind only Mariano Rivera, Clayton Kershaw, and Pedro Martinez.
Rollie Fingers is another good comparison. All three players missed a season in their mid-30s (Sutter at 34, Nathan at 35, Fingers at 36); all three players played for multiple franchises (3 each for Sutter and Fingers; 5 for Nathan – bizarrely, though, Nathan is probably the player with one particular “team” most associated with his career, since his career was least evenly-distributed among his franchises; they all made roughly the same number of All-Star Teams (each made at least 6; only Fingers made 7); all have roughly the same career WHIP (1.12 for Nathan, 1.14 for Sutter, and 1.156 for Fingers) and ERA (2.87,2.83, and 2.90, respectively).
As I see it, though, there are three big differences:
* During the ’87 season, Gossage had overtaken Sutter in saves, 289-286. Here’s the month-by-month of the race to 300 saves. Following a Blown Save on Opening Day, Sutter failed to save a game in April, allowing Gossage to extend his lead to 291-286. In May, Gossage saved 4 games, but Sutter saved seven, making it 295-293. It was a legitimate race to be the second man to 300. By June 17th, each man had saved three in the month due to two blown saves by Gossage, but Sutter managed one more on the 24th, bringing it to 298-297. On July 2, with a chance to tie Gossage, Sutter blew a save at Atlanta. However, he made up for it by saving one on the 6th. Gossage hadn’t saved any yet, so they sat tied at 298! But July was a rough month for both players: Sutter blew two opportunities and took a loss, while Gossage blew three saves in six days. The good news for Goose was that he did actually save one in that span, making it 299-298 by the end of the month. I’m guessing Sutter got hurt in July, because he didn’t pitch much in late-July or August, and when he did, he was bad, blowing leads and saves and failing to save a game. Gossage had a mediocre month, but saved his 300th on the 6th of August (and saved another a few days later). By the end of August, it was 301-298 in favor of Gossage. Sutter earned saves in back-to-back appearances on September 6th and 9th, finally reaching 300 saves with Gossage stuck on 301. However, at that point, Sutter was done for the season (and his career). Gossage did manage another save on the 27th, but the die was cast and Sutter would never make it back to second place after July 23rd, when Gossage saved his 299th to break their tie. Though Gossage played 5 further seasons, he only saved 8 games in them, making the final tally 310-300.
Nathan’s case comes down to 9 seasons – 2003 to 2009 and his 2012-2013 resurgence with the Rangers. To have a solid HoF case in my view, I’d want him to be a Top 5 reliever in all 9 years or close to it, and Top 3 in roughly half of those seasons. At the very least, one stretch, even for just a season or two, as the best in baseball or at least his league. Granted, the competition is very stiff, but I don’t think Nathan clears any of those bars.
Most of the tough calls for relievers are guys in that 24-30 WAR range and there’s not always great rhyme or reason as to who is in – Sutter, Hoffman, Fingers – and who isn’t – Quiz, Wagner, Tekulve.
Another guy right in that range is K-Rod.
I completely agree about ALL of that, CC. With Nathan, as opposed to the others, you get more consistency: other than the recovering-from-injury ’11 season, he’s good for like a 150 ERA+ or better for a decade. That’s better than many of the great ones. Goose Gossage, a more “no-doubt” Hall of Fame reliever, was not nearly as consistent as Nathan… but his BEST seasons were better. I think Nathan is tough. The equivalent starting pitcher might be someone like Bert Blyleven – no Black Ink, consistently very good, compiled a lot of numbers, never as spectacular as his peers until you dig into the sabermetrics, and no awards love. Obviously, Joe Nathan was not as good a pitcher as Bert Blyleven; don’t misunderstand me as saying that. Just that, relative to his peers, that’s who his case reminds me of. OOOoooooh – Kevin Brown might be another, actually, though Nathan doesn’t have the steroid complication.
Anyway, the most important point you make is certainly the one about relievers with 24-30 WAR. They are all pretty much the same. The inclusion of one of those guys is exactly as arbitrary as the exclusion of another. Trevor Hoffman saved twice as many games as Bruce Sutter, and they’re both in… but Billy Wagner can’t get get a sniff. I suppose the equivalent is probably something like everyday players with 50-60 WAR. (Personally, this is all evidence to me that we shouldn’t be electing relievers at all, with the exceptions of Mariano and maybe Hoyt Wilhelm. I think you have to be above and beyond – to lap the people who already lapped the field – in order to merit consideration.)
Hall of Stats scores it 61 for Nathan and 53 for Sutter. Nathan is on next year’s HoF ballot, so we’ll soon find out, but it will be an uphill battle for him given his short career.
Couple of other notes on Nathan. He has the highest Save % of any retired pitcher with 200 saves (Craig Kimbrel is slightly ahead now, but will probably fall behind Nathan this season). Also, his W-L% as a reliever (52-29, .642) is off the charts. Kenley Jansen is second at .600 among pitchers with 150 saves. Mariano was .574. Supposedly W-L% is not a big thing for relievers in general, but it is meaningful for your closer. So, another feather for Nathan.
Drysdale, Randolph, Smith
Through 11 ballots:
7 – Drysdale
5 – Minoso
4 – Williams, Randolph
3 – Abreu, Boyer, Helton
2 – Smith
1 – Pettitte, Berkman
Smith and Pettitte are on the bubble, so could use a bit more support to stay on the ballot (Drysdale’s on the bubble too, but he has loftier ambitions).
The remaining questions, for those following the trivia, are 6), 12), 15), and 19). Personally, I’m tapped out. I’m ready for hints or for someone much savvier than I to figure them out!
Looks like the answer to #6 is Ken Schrom in 1986.
Answer to #15 is Carlos Gomez.
Answer to #12 is Daniel Murphy.
I should’ve thought of Gomez. I thought of Raul Ibanez, but he hadn’t played nearly enough by that age. I kind of figured it had to be one of those good prospects who kept getting second chances – a Byron Buxton-type – but I couldn’t think who it would be. Gomez is just that guy. Thanks.
So, for #19, I sort of found a way to search for likely candidates – is it Orlando Palmeiro for the 2004 Astros?
Palmeiro is correct. He had a PH appearance in all 12 of Houston’s post-season games. The Cardinal team that beat those Astros in the 2004 NLCS uniquely had two players (Roger Cedeno and Marlon Anderson) with 10+ PH appearances for that post-season.
I searched the streak finder and saw that Palmeiro has the record for most consecutive playoff games with exactly one PA, with 18. He has another stretch of 6 games which I believe was interrupted by a single start.
Drysdale, Williams, Reggie Smith
I wonder how many times Don Drysdale has ping-ponged into the Primary Ballot. I seem to recall advocating for him on the primary, but maybe I’m getting confused. Either way, it seems to me like there are some guys who are on-the-cusp-of-being-on-the-cusp, and I think he might be one of them. Y’know – good enough to get off the secondary, but never good enough to merit serious consideration. It’s quite a conundrum. But I’m glad we have the secondary ballot so we can at least keep these guys in our minds. Well, I guess we just have to leave things to the BBWAA next year and hope they give us more to work with!
Just to tidy things up.
The answer to the bonus question for Sidney Ponson is that this game is unique in major league history as the only time both starters (Ponson and Jaime Navarro) would go on to a career including CG in 10% of 250+ starts with an ERA+ of 90 or lower. In fact, it’s not a huge surprise that this is is the only such game as only one other pitcher (Jack Fisher) has posted such a career.
The answer to the question posed in the comment about Lou Klimchock is that he, Mickey Mantle, Mel Ott and others (Tony Conigliaro and Gary Sheffield) jointly held the single season record for most HR (4) in Sep/Oct by a player aged 19 or younger. Bryce Harper blew them all away with 7 Sep/Oct HR in 2012.