The Seattle Mariners are baseball’s hottest team at the All-Star break, and their rookie center-fielder Julio Rodriguez (“J-Rod” to his hometown fans) is a big reason why. More on Rodriguez and the Mariners after the jump.
Seattle’s current 14 game winning streak (tied with the Braves for this season’s longest) is one shy of the franchise record set in their 116 win season in 2001. That year, the Mariners debuted another rookie outfielder, Ichiro Suzuki, whose season included an All-Star selection, and RoY and MVP awards. This year, Rodriguez has the first and is well on his way to the second. The third will be a tall order for the 21 year-old from the Dominican Republic, but that’s hardly a slight on Rodriguez, who stands 6th in the AL with 3.6 WAR at the break, most of that garnered since May 1st, during which time he has posted an .886 OPS, including 16 home runs in 71 games. Those exploits have earned Rodriguez AL Rookie of the Month honors for both May and June, and a recent AL Player of the Week nod. That WAR total gives Rodriguez a shot at the debut season record for age 21 or younger players, a mark currently held by Ted Williams (1939) and Albert Pujols (2001), with 6.6 WAR totals.
How good has Rodriguez been to start this season? Looking at first halves (first half of schedule before 1933, before All-Star Game since) in debut seasons aged 21 or younger, Rodriguez ranks 5th in Runs Created, 3rd in Total Bases and Stolen Bases, 4th in Runs and Home Runs, 5th in RBI and Extra-Base Hits, and 6th in Hits. Another Seattle center-fielder, Ken Griffey Jr., is the only other player in the group with double-digit homers and steals before the break. Among all players this season, Rodriguez’s 18.2 Power/Speed number (i.e. the harmonic mean of home runs and stolen bases) leads the majors by a comfortable margin, and his 21 stolen bases are just one behind AL leader Jorge Mateo (if Rodriguez were to finish the season as the league stolen base leader, he would join Tim Raines, Mike Trout and Richie Ashburn as the only rookies to do so aged 21 or younger).
Rodriguez made his major league debut this season in Seattle’s opening day starting lineup. That accomplishment in an age 21 or younger season puts Rodriguez in pretty select company, as only 77 other position players* (and one pitcher) have matched that feat since 1901. Joining that group bodes well for Rodriguez, as the list is chock full of Hall of Famers and other notables, including such names as Tinker, Hartnett, Doerr, Williams, Ashburn, Mantle, Mathews, Aaron, Robinson, Pinson, Cepeda, Yastrzemski, Staub, Carew, Yount, Murray, Molitor, Griffey Jr., Pujols, Mauer and Tatis Jr.
* Of these 78 players, only two appeared in the same debut game. Larry Hisle and Don Money, both aged 20, debuted together for the Phillies on opening day 1968. Despite both recording their first hit that day (and Money driving in the game’s only runs in support of Chris Short‘s 4 hit shutout), the pair managed only 11 games and 26 PA between them for the season.
Thanks for a great article about an exciting young player. All the services had him ranked 2nd or 3rd as a ML prospect prior to his debut. It certainly will be interesting to see if he has a career like Cedeno, Griffey, or Mays….or Larry Hisle. Bill James had a calculator called his favorite toy that, basically, projected final career stats. I’m still waiting for Ruben Sierra to drive in his 2,000th run.
One of the saddest things we baseball fans see is a career ruined by injuries…like Yelich with the bad back. He was looking like a .320 35 110 guy for the next 10 years. And, it looks like Mike Trout has a better chance of becoming US President (at age 35, of course) than ever playing 150+ games in a season again. Good luck to Julio
He’s the kind of player that grabs your attention the first time you see him in the batter’s box. Oozing raw talent, but will have to see if he’s able to refine those skills over time.
Right now, Julio’s projected season totals look a lot like Bobby Bonds’ first full season (except Bonds drew more walks). If Rodriguez is only a Bonds, he will be a lot of fun to watch, but seems like he could be even better than that (if you click on the image, it will come into focus).
In April, Julio Rodriguez was called out on strikes 17 times. Statcast found that 10 were out of the strike zone. No other player had more than 5 called strike 3s.. That month, he hit .206/.284.260, 0,6, 9 SB. After becoming a viral sensation for getting squeezed, he, and the umps adjusted.
From May 1 onward, he’s hit .293/.351/.535, 16, 46, 12. I would argue that’s more indicative of his true talent.
Conveniently, that’s 71 games.
Add that to the 91 games he already played, and we get:
G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB IBB SO HBP SH SF SB CS BA OBP SLG
162 679 619 97 175 32 4 32 98 45 3 174 13 0 2 33 10 .282 .343 .502
Nice observation, Tom.
“In April, Julio Rodriguez was called out on strikes 17 times … No other player had more than 5 called strike 3s.”
That variance from everyone else is pretty remarkable. Of course, if you subtract the 10 dubious strike 3 calls, Rodriguez still had more than anyone else.
Not sure if I agree with the umpires giving rookies a rough ride just because they’re rookies. Almost like they were saying “get the bat off your shoulder, rookie, and prove you belong here, ’cause you won’t get any close calls until you do”. I suppose that’s analogous with the notion that discerning hitters get the benefit of the doubt on close pitches, but free swingers don’t, and rookies will be presumed to be the latter until they prove otherwise. But, seems pretty harsh judgment for rookies before they’ve had a chance to show what they can or can’t do. I mean it’s tough enough to get adjusted to being a major leaguer hitter without the umpire being the pitcher’s best friend.
Among the many unusual factoids from Toronto’s 28-5 romp over the Red Sox.
– Toronto franchise records for Runs, Hits and winning run differential
– Boston franchise record for Runs Allowed
– Boston franchise record for longest streak (3 games) allowing 13+ runs
– Boston franchise record for most runs allowed (55) over 3 consecutive games (one off ML record)
– Every Toronto batter had scored by the 3rd inning
– Every Toronto batter had 2+ hits by the 5th inning
– Toronto scored 25 runs in first 5 innings: 1st game since 1922
– 12 straight Toronto batters reached base in 5th inning after first two batters made outs
– Toronto recorded 19 two out RBI
– 9 Toronto starters had 2+ hits and 2+ runs: 2nd game since 1901 (Angels beat the Blue Jays 24-2 in the other game, in 1979)
– 8 Toronto starters had 2+ hits, 2+ runs and 1+ RBI: 6th game since 1901
– 4 Toronto batters with 4+ RBI: 7th game since 1901
– Raimel Tapia’s 2 out inside-the-park grand slam is 42nd searchable since 1915, and first this century
– Blue Jay outfielder Teoscar Hernandez homered to raise his career SLG at Fenway to 0.657, the second highest mark (for now) by a visiting player in 150+ PA, but a distant second to Frank Robinson’s 0.724 SLG in 267 PA
– Red Sox DH Rob Refsnyder hit an 8th inning solo HR with his team trailing by 23 runs … and flipped his bat (his manager rewarded him by putting him in the field to play the 9th inning)
– Batting Line Scores
Also it looks like the Jays were the second team to score 25 runs in the first 5 innings in modern times. On 8/25/1922 the Cubs scored 25 in the first 4 innings
Doug: I just noticed that you also posted that stat.
As a postscript, Raimel Tapia added a second game in the series with 3+ hits and 4+ RBI, tying him with 5 other visiting players with a pair of such games consecutively in the same series at Fenway. Tapia batted 1st and 8th in the two games, while four of the other five batted in the same position in both games, and the fifth moved just one position in the second game. A seventh player, Garret Anderson, did this in consecutive games, but in different seasons and for different teams.
Looks like I jinxed the Mariners; their 14 game winning streak ended ingloriously with a series sweep at the hands of the Astros, who have (relatively) quietly crept within a game-and-a-half of the Yankees for the AL’s best record. I said AL because the Dodgers, after sweeping the Giants, have now moved ahead of the Yankees by a percentage point (.681 to .680).
“Looks like I jinxed the Mariners; their 14 game winning streak ended ingloriously with a series sweep at the hands of the Astros….”
Yes, Italians call that the mal occhia (meh-loyx). But, they’re still in the thick of the wild card chase. On a similar note, the Phillies just got swept (at home, no less) by the Cubs AAA affiliate from Chicago
With Yadier Molina scheduled to return to the Cardinals next week, St. Louis has a chance for a major league first since 1901. That would be starting a game with pitcher, catcher and first baseman all aged 40 or older. Call it 1-2-3-40.
With or without Pujols at first bae, a Wainwright/Molina starting battery would be a first for the Cardinals with both players aged 40+.
Max Scherzer on Wed went 7 scoreless IP for the Mets. That makes the 38 year-old the oldest NL pitcher with such a start on his birthday. The AL record belongs to Sad Sam Jones, with a shutout on his 42nd birthday.
What would Paul Goldschmidt hit off of Patrick Corbin?
Paul Goldschmidt leads the NL in batting average, with a .328 average.
Patrick Corbin, having one of the worst pitching seasons ever, is allowing a .331 average.
The overall National League batting average is .245 so far this year.
Assuming Goldschmidt has faced average pitching all year, we give him a batting average “score” of .411 (meaning, half of the time you get his result, half of the time you get a league-average result, and the net effect is his .328 average).
For Corbin, assuming he’s faced league-average hitters all year, his batting average allowed “score” is .417, which is also quite terrible.
Taking the average of those two – an expected .417 average allowed for Corbin and a .411 expected average for Goldschmidt, means that if Goldschmidt and Corbin faced no one but one another, and Goldschmidt turns into the second-best hitter (by batting average) in the last 100 seasons. Only Rogers Hornsby, at .424 in 1925, would rank higher.
It involves crossing leagues, but Luis Arraez has a score of .424, giving him a .4195 expectation against Corbin.
Off the cuff, I would guess that the highest batting average expectations post-integration probably belong to 1977 Rod Carew (.510), 1980 George Brett (.511), and 1994 Tony Gwynn (.521).
Carew vs. Corbin – .4635
Brett vs. Corbin – .464
Gwynn vs. Corbin – .469
It’s fun to think about slow-pitch softball numbers being put up at the ML level!
….and, what if any of these guys played 81 home games at the slow-pitch softball palace Coors Field?
Kevin Ritz (.330) and Jamey Wright (.327), both in 1997, have the highest BA against in 100+ IP for the Rockies. Ritz was .360/.304 home and away, and Wright was .343/.304.
So, Ritz, based on the .360 “BA against” at home, would be surrendering about 18 more base hits in a 650 PA/600 AB season (if they palyed 162 at Coors Field)?
sorry, 18 more base hits than Patrick Corbin (.360 vs. .331)
The biggest differences in BA home and away for Rockies pitchers in 100+ IP incl 50+ IP at home.
.113 (.303/.190) – Tyler Chatwood (2016)
.105 (.317/.212) – German Marquez (2019)
.104 (.344/.240) – John Thomson (1998)
.102 (.302/.200) – Tyler Chatwood (2017)
.101 (.353/.252) – Brian Bohanon (1999)
.100 (.312/.212) – Chad Bettis (2018)
The highest BA against in 100+ IP since 1961 belongs to Zach Duke, with a .359 BA against in 107.1 IP in 2007. It could have been worse as Duke pitched the most against the Astros (17 IP) and held them to a .274 BA. The Reds (.289) were the only other opponent that didn’t hit .300 against Duke.
Highest BA against/Rank in 100+ IP since 1961 with ERA+ of:
80+ – .333/13, Tom Browning (1993)
90+ – .327/30, Terry Mulholland (2004)
100+ – .319/61, Bob Tewksbury (1995)
110+ – .311/159, Rick Jones (1976)
120+ – .304/316, Rick White (1999)
Last night in a 4-3 loss to the Phillies, Joey Votto went 0-4 on four pitches. Included in the mix was a GIDP so, He literally made 5 outs on 4 pitches. Has these ever been done before in the “retrosheet” era? Any idea?
Forget it….probably more common than one would think. Maikel Franco of the Phillies performed the exact same feat (0-4 with a GIDP on 4 pitches) on 8/30/2016
https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/PHI/PHI201608300.shtml
News today (Aug 26) that the Mariners are going “all in” to sign Rodriguez long term. J-Rod has slipped slightly from his projections when this post was published, but still has a shot at a 6 WAR age 21 rookie season, something accomplished only 6 times before by non-pitchers.
Generated 8/26/2022.
Mariners move looks like a reasonable gamble based on those comps, but not exactly a lock.
Julio reached 25 HR today (Sep 11) with a pair in a comeback win over the Braves. Rodriguez’s second blast tied the game in the 9th to set the stage for Eugenio Suarez to walk it off with a solo shot, also his second tater of the game. Just the second time the Mariners have had two players with 2+ HR games playing at Safeco Field/T-Mobile Park. For Suarez, it’s his third home game this season with a pair of dingers, the first Mariner with that trifecta playing in their current ballpark.
Suarez, now with 30 HR for the season, has overtaken (for now) Aaron Judge for most HR since 2018, with Suarez at 159 and Judge at 157.
Julio finished the year with 25 HR, 28 2B and 25 SB. Just the third 25/25/25 season by a rookie, after Mike Trout (2012) and Chris Young (2007), and the first in a debut season.