The hottest team out of the gate in the new season are the Tampa Bay Rays. How hot? Find out after the jump.
To be sure, the Rays benefited from a soft spot in their schedule to start the year (their first four opponents were a combined 259-389, .400 last season). Nevertheless, their 13-0 start is historically good, tying the modern era record for the longest winning streak to start a season.
| Rk | Team | Season | W | L | W-L% | ERA |
Run Differential |
SHO | HR | BB | SO | Errors |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | TBR | 2023 | 13 | 0 | 1.000 | 2.23 | 71 | 4 | 6 | 31 | 122 | 4 |
| 2 | MIL | 1987 | 13 | 0 | 1.000 | 3.68 | 38 | 1 | 12 | 41 | 81 | 9 |
| 3 | ATL | 1982 | 13 | 0 | 1.000 | 2.14 | 32 | 2 | 2 | 47 | 69 | 10 |
| 4 | OAK | 1981 | 11 | 0 | 1.000 | 1.27 | 49 | 3 | 1 | 34 | 56 | 5 |
| 5 | CLE | 1966 | 10 | 0 | 1.000 | 1.53 | 23 | 3 | 5 | 38 | 98 | 9 |
| 6 | PIT | 1962 | 10 | 0 | 1.000 | 2.70 | 30 | 1 | 6 | 31 | 51 | 9 |
| 7 | BRO | 1955 | 10 | 0 | 1.000 | 2.60 | 39 | 1 | 6 | 36 | 36 | 9 |
So, among these 7 teams, the Rays recorded the most team shutouts, had the lowest walk rate and were a close second to the ’66 Indians in strikeout rate. They also had the tightest defense, and won their games by an average margin of almost 5½ runs, a full run better than the next best result by the ’81 A’s. That massive run advantage is borne out by Tampa’s equally impressive offensive performance.
| Rk | Team | Season | W | L | W-L% | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB | BB | SO | BA | OBP | SLG | OPS | TB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | TBR | 2023 | 13 | 0 | 1.000 | 101 | 124 | 29 | 0 | 32 | 99 | 9 | 46 | 94 | .287 | .364 | .576 | .941 | 249 |
| 2 | MIL | 1987 | 13 | 0 | 1.000 | 91 | 138 | 32 | 1 | 21 | 88 | 16 | 52 | 89 | .302 | .378 | .514 | .892 | 235 |
| 3 | ATL | 1982 | 13 | 0 | 1.000 | 66 | 114 | 24 | 5 | 10 | 59 | 9 | 66 | 58 | .273 | .371 | .426 | .797 | 178 |
| 4 | OAK | 1981 | 11 | 0 | 1.000 | 63 | 100 | 13 | 3 | 11 | 58 | 8 | 45 | 55 | .267 | .350 | .405 | .755 | 152 |
| 5 | CLE | 1966 | 10 | 0 | 1.000 | 42 | 91 | 11 | 1 | 8 | 36 | 7 | 36 | 50 | .277 | .349 | .389 | .738 | 128 |
| 6 | PIT | 1962 | 10 | 0 | 1.000 | 61 | 102 | 15 | 7 | 11 | 56 | 3 | 40 | 42 | .299 | .373 | .481 | .854 | 164 |
| 7 | BRO | 1955 | 10 | 0 | 1.000 | 70 | 100 | 22 | 2 | 19 | 65 | 3 | 42 | 44 | .290 | .374 | .530 | .905 | 183 |
Of these 7 teams, the Rays had the most runs and home runs per game, and posted the leading SLG and OPS marks, largely due to that huge home run total. For the record, the Rays also recorded the lowest walk rate in the group, with a ridiculous 1.44 walk to home run ratio (barely half of the major league average last season of 2.86).
The Rays’ run differential was the largest for any team over the first 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13 and 14 games of a season, with a margin of at least 10 runs over the second best team in all but the first and last of those periods. Similarly, Tampa’s home run total was tied for the most over the first 11 and 14 games of a season, ranked second (to the 2000 Cardinals) for the first 8, 9, and 10 games, and third (to the 2000 Cardinals and 2019 Mariners) for the first 12 and 13 contests.
Despite the hot starts by these 7 clubs, only the world champion ’55 Dodgers were pennant winners. The ’81 A’s and ’82 Braves were division champs, but the rest were also rans: the ’66 Indians managing only a .500 record and a 5th place finish; the ’62 Pirates posting a seemingly impressive 93-68 record, but one which was good only for a 4th place finish in an expansion season; and the ’87 Brewers finishing 3rd with a 91-71 record, 7 games back in a tight 3-way division chase with the Tigers and Blue Jays.
Leaving streaks aside and expanding the pool of teams to those with the best records over the first 10 to 15 games of a season yields the post-season success results shown below (the Rays, with a 13-2 start, are the only 2023 team represented in the table, and have been excluded from the post-season success results shown).
| No More Than 2 Losses | no. of Teams (since 1901) | World Series champs | League champs | Division champs (since 1969) | Post-season qualifier | Also rans | %World Series Champs | % League Champs | % Post-season qualifiers |
| over first 10 games | 177 | 26 | 49 | 42 | 80 | 96 | 14.8% | 27.8% | 45.5% |
| over first 11 games | 118 | 21 | 38 | 30 | 57 | 60 | 17.9% | 32.5% | 48.7% |
| over first 12 games | 73 | 11 | 22 | 21 | 35 | 37 | 15.3% | 30.6% | 48.7% |
| over first 13 games | 51 | 9 | 15 | 15 | 25 | 25 | 18% | 30% | 50% |
| over first 14 games | 30 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 15 | 14 | 24.1% | 27.6% | 51.7% |
| over first 15 games | 19 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 9 | 9 | 22.2% | 27.8% | 50% |
There is a notable jump in post-season success based on a 9-2 (or better) start compared to 8-2. Similarly, chances of winning the World Series are considerably better after a 12-2 (or better) start compared to 11-2. Note also that pennant winning teams that started 12-2 or better posted a 7-1 record in the World Series.
While the Rays’ 13-2 start is not a guarantee of anything, it has to encouraging to their fans to realize that, based on historical precedent, the team’s chances of winning it all have shot up to almost 1 in 4.
Thanks, Doug. It’s been fun to see their continued success. Since dropping three out of four games after their 13-0 start, the Rays have won another six in a row. Back-to-back walkoff victories were sandwiched between several more blowouts, and their run differential now stands at +93 (157-64). Their 14 consecutive wins at home to start the season is a new modern record, and only the aforementioned ‘55 Dodgers and 1911 Tigers (both at 21-2) had a better record after 23 games than the Rays’ 20-3.
A win tonight would put them (at 21-3) on pace to match the 1984 Tigers’ 35-5 start. After Detroit began that campaign 19-2, they dropped two straight, then won 16 of their next 17. Those first 35 victories came in streaks of 9, 7, 3, 7, and 9 again.
Tuna,
I think you answered all my questions….. That 157-64 pythagorean just about matches their W-L after 23 games and on pace for 140 wins. It’s an absolute shame that MLB has adopted an NHL/NBA style playoff approach after teams like this win 105+ games and have to prove it all over again. But, I guess that’s my problem and not Manfred’s 🙁
As dominant (and balanced) as that 1984 Tigers team was, they never won anything more than the AL East (1987) for quite a while
There were a few 80s teams that didn’t seem to live up to their potential— the 83 Orioles, 84 Tigers. 86 Mets, 89 A’s all seemed to be on a verge of greater things.
They had stars, aces, young cores, solid pitching, sluggers, solid role players, dependable backups, and promising youngsters
.
In 28 years of the expanded postseason era, seven wild card teams have prevailed as world champions (‘97 Marlins, ‘02 Angels, ‘03 Marlins, ‘04 Red Sox, ‘11 Cardinals, ‘14 Giants, and ‘19 Nationals), while another seven won their league’s pennant before losing the World Series. There have been some fun stories in those playoff runs. Yet like you, Paul, I enjoyed when MLB distinguished itself among professional sports by requiring teams win their division to qualify for the postseason. Shoot, I might be the only person who feels this way, but I even miss the simplicity of the World Series home field advantage alternating between the AL (odd years) and NL (even years).
After the Rays beat the Astros last night to establish the modern record with their 14th straight home win to open the season, Houston halted their streak with a 5-0 victory tonight. The AP recap was a reminder how the rush to get stories posted online can leave writers and editors inadvertently overstating the obvious. Here is an excerpt:
“Tampa Bay entered the game outscoring its opponents 157-64. The Rays were held homerless for the second consecutive game after going deep 48 times during an MLB-record 22 straight to begin a season.
It was the first time the Rays have been shut out this season.”
So for those of you scoring at home, we learned that the Rays remarkably weren’t shut out EVEN ONCE during their MLB-record 22 straight games hitting a home run to start the season.
Tuna,
Yes, they play 162 games. Is that not enough to indicate the superiority of a pennant winer? When there were 24 teams, we had 18 in-division games (90) and 12 out-of-division games (72) – a nice balance and a real opportunity, typically, to make hay in September intra-division games. Intra-league? IMO? BS….particularly in this day and age where if you live in KC, you could always travel to St. Louis to see an NL game. This “phenomena” exists all over the US. I dunno….As far as “news”, I see a lot of grammatical errors in online news stories of every ilk but, the logic end of your example is definitely a “rush” thing (I hope).
While the Rays have suffered their first shutout of the season, they’ve already inflicted that punishment on their opponents no fewer than 6 times in their first 19 games (tied for the most over that period), including three in a row against the A’s and Red Sox, and back-to-back against the Reds.
Of note is that four of those shutouts were blowouts, a pair of 11-0 spankings of the A’s, and 8-0 and 10-0 against the Reds. No team has recorded three straight games with a 7-0 or worse shutout of their opponent, so Tampa has already tied that record streak twice this season. The Brewers and Blue Jays have also posted such games consecutively, making this year the first since 1901 with four such “streaks” in a season (and, it’s only April). The 2009 Giants recorded two such streaks in a span of only 6 games, while the 1949 Tigers and 2022 Blue Jays are the only other teams with a pair of such streaks in a season (the Blue Jays now have four such streaks since Sep 2021, after none in their first 44 seasons).
The Rays juggernaut looks primed to roll on, with their next 4 games against the 7-18 White Sox, losers of 7 straight, including being outscored 20-2 by Toronto in their most recent series.
Doug,
Is it safe to say that the disparity between the “rich/haves” and the “poor/have nots” is playing itself out in MLB like never before? The A’s, for example, are headed to Las Vegas; however, Birmingham or Huntsville might be more appropriate. 🙁
While there is some significant disparity, at the moment all the other teams chasing the Rays and Pirates in the standings.
Or maybe the poor haves, in the case of the Rays. And, the Pirates too?
Doug, Tuna,
I’ve never understood the TBR phenomena, particularly in a division with the NYY and Red Sox. As for “me buccos”, coming off consecutive 100-loss seasons, anything above .500 would be a great achievement
Fifteen more games have gone by since this post, and the Rays are still rolling, at 24-6. Tampa’s +106 run differential through 30 games is the highest since the Pirates were +112 way back in 1902.
At the other end of the spectrum are the A’s, with -118 run differential through 30 games, a record low since 1901, and 23 runs worse than the previous mark of -95 by the 1938 Phillies. Oakland’s 6-24 record compares to the 11-19 mark of the 1962 Mets (those Mets followed a 3-16 start with their only hot streak of the season, going 9-3 from May 6th to 20th, before losing 17 in a row from May 21st to June 6th).
With tonight’s 20-1 loss to the Jays, the Rays (+107) have relinquished the MLB lead in run differential to the Rangers (+111). Their injury-riddled pitching staff didn’t suffer too much damage, though, with the final ten runs being surrendered by position players in mop-up relief duty.
Tampa Bay still holds the best record at 35-15, but the equally surprising Orioles (31-16) are now just 2-1/2 games behind [pending the outcome of tonight’s contest with the Yankees – currently tied at five in the 10th inning]. The Rays and Orioles are on pace for 113 and 107 wins, respectively.
Tuna,
A 162-game schedule will tend to do that. The Pirates are returning to earth as well. A couple of years ago, somehow the SFG won 107 games when the Las Vegas pre-season over/under was about 78! That happens about once in everyone’s lifetime…. reversion to the norm kind of stuff. The following season they went 81-81 🙁
Andrew McCutchen collected the 1000th walk of his career on Sunday. Other milestones he should pass this season include 2000 games, 2000 hits, 300 HR, 400 doubles and, possibly, 50 triples (he needs only one more, but didn’t get it last year). He also just missed getting his 1000th RBI this season, starting the year with 1002.
Doug,
Yes, and despite Cutch’s heroics, the Bucs have dropped 7 in a row and only one of those losses was close (a 3-2 loss to TBR on 5/4/23). Yes, Pythagoras doesn’t lie and the A’s are really that bad. Regardless of the very successful influx of Asian and Latin talent, I miss 24-team major league baseball. Thirty teams are too many (IMO) and there just aren’t enough ML-caliber ballplayers to go around. But, I’m sure we’ll round up to 32 within the next 10 years 🙁
The Blue Jays tonight (Fri, May 12) broke their record streak of games without a 9 inning complete game, with Chris Bassitt twirling a 2-hit shutout against the Braves. It was Toronto’s first such CG since Apr 25, 2017. The next longest current streak belongs to the Twins, who are without a 9 IP CG since Jun 7, 2018. The Rays are the only other team to go 5+ years between such CG, from May 14, 2016 to Jun 3, 2021.
Pitching for Atlanta in the same game was Spencer Strider, who whiffed 12 in a losing effort. It was Strider’s 12th straight game with 8+ K’s, becoming just the 6th pitcher to record such a streak, after Randy Johnson (4 times), Shane Bieber (the record holder, with 20 such consecutive games), Corey Kluber, Pedro Martinez and Nolan Ryan. Sandy Koufax, Martinez, Johnson and Ryan make up the group with streaks of 11 such games, the last two at age 37 and 42 respectively.
Doug,
That is incredible. I initially thought you were implying 9-inning CG shutouts but, as it turns out, just plain old complete games. Geeze…and I’m old enough to remember Lolich throwing 350+ innings and guys like Gibson, Koufax, Jenkins, Perry completing 70% of their starts.
In those days, it was probably noteworthy if a team went a couple of weeks without one of its starters logging a CG. Now, … well, times have changed.
Doug,
I’d almost be curious to know what the longest stretch without a CG by any staff was prior to 1980. I would think it might be less than 7 games – even for bad Phillies teams in the late 1920’s or those original Mets of the 1960’s. Seemed like every staff had at least one “someone/ace/#1” who was reliable or capable of 9 IP?
Here are the results for longest streaks of 9 IP games without a CG:
2011-23 – 775 games
2001-10 – 273 games
1991-2000 – 195 games
1981-90 – 75 games
1971-80 – 60 games
1961-70 – 42 games
1951-60 – 31 games
1941-50 – 23 games
1931-40 – 17 games
1921-30 – 17 games
The Twins are on pace to surpass Toronto’s record streak in late May or early June 2024.
On the flip side, here are the most recent teams to record a 9 IP CG streak of:
2 games – 2016 Red Sox
3 games – 2015 Indians
4 games – 1994 Indians
5+ games – 1988 Padres
10+ games – 1980 A’s
Here are all CG streaks of 10+ games since 1920. Note that extra-inning CG are excluded from the streaks shown. In the case of the 1980 A’s, their 11 game CG streak was actually 13 games, with Steve McCatty (14 IP) and Mike Norris (11 IP) going the distance in extras during the streak.
THAT is a lot of information – Thanks, Doug !
Incidentally, Chris Bassitt followed up his shutout of the Braves with 7 scoreless innings against the Yankees. That is the 6th streak (by 5 pitchers) this season of 2+ games with 7+ scoreless IP and 75+ game score. Those 6 streaks match the total for all of the 2022 season, when there were no such streaks prior to June.
Joe Ryan shut out the Red Sox on three hits today, ending the Twins’ streak of bullpen use at 724 games. It was also the first complete game shutout for the Twins since José Berríos on Apr 1, 2018. And it was the first time in Rocco Baldelli’s managerial career (622 games) that his starting pitcher was allowed to finish.
Ryan’s 90 game score is the highest by a Twin since Ervin Santana’s 92 in 2017.
It is just the 11th time a Twin has reached 90 since 1978, after 10 such games from 1970 to 1977. The franchise record is 120 by Walter Johnson, with an 18 inning shutout on 1918-05-15 (that was completed in under 3 hours).
Go figure. Last night Pablo López threw the Twins’ second complete game shutout in 12 games, with a 91 game score.