Shohei Ohtani showed us how superstars mark milestones, again! Four weeks ago, it was a walk-off grand slam to mark his joining the 40/40 club, Yesterday, it was a game for the ages as he became the first member of the 50/50 club. More after the jump.
I’ll get to 50/50 in a moment, but let’s just look first at his 6-4-6-10 game, a first (unsurprisingly) for that box score line, and only the seventeenth 6-4-6-x game.
- Ohtani’s six hits included a record five for extra-bases, joining this select group of 15 sluggers, and sharing with Shawn Green the distinction of being the only players with a game of five XBH plus one more knock.
- Ohtani’s ten RBI marked the 16th game with 10 or more ribbies.
- Notably, Shohei’s game is the only one on both the above lists, and he is the only player on either list with a stolen base (or even an attempted steal) in the same game.
- Ohtani’s 17 total bases put him in this group of 7 players. He is the first to reach that total without hitting four home runs. Add in Ohtani’s two stolen bases (and zero CS), and he ties Shawn Green with a record 19 combined “all purpose” bases (i.e. TB + SB – CS).
Here is a visual depiction of the evolution of Power/Speed milestones.
The four seasons depicted are the first at the indicated milestone levels. The height of the bars indicates the instances of the previous milestone represented by the new milestone. Thus, Sam Thompson‘s first 20/20 season was the ninth 15/15 season, Ken Williams‘ 30/30 season was the fifth 20/20 season, Jose Canseco‘s 40/40 season was the sixteenth 30/30 season, and Ohtani’s 50/50 season is the sixth 40/40 season. Those instance counts correlate quite nicely with the gaps between these milestones, with similar instance counts for Williams and Ohtani, and similar seasons (33 for Williams, 36 for Ohtani) since the previous milestone. The significantly larger instance count for Canseco reflects a gap (66 seasons) between milestones about twice as long as the others. Notably, it took 99 years to go from the first 20/20 season to the first 40/40 season. It is a very similar 102 years between Williams and Ohtani, which also represents a doubling of milestones, since Williams’s first 30/30 season was also the first 25/25 season.
That first 20/20 season 135 years ago has grown to number almost 500 now. Here is a breakdown of those seasons on the Power/Speed spectrum.
The totals shown in the above chart are subject to change slightly over the final week of this season. In particular, there could be a few more “red 1’s” in the table should Ohtani reach 55 SB or 55 HR, both within his reach with a strong finish. Further milestones aside, Ohtani’s current 51 stolen bases more than double the previous record total in any 50+ home run season. Ohtani should also set or come close to a number of records for 50+ SB seasons, including:
- Total Bases: Ohtani should easily pass Ronald Acuna Jr.‘s record of 383 in 2023
- SLG: Ditto for the current record .620 clip by Ty Cobb in 1911
- RBI: Ohtani should pass Cobb’s modern era record of 127 in 1911, but the all-time record of 135 by George Davis in 1897 would be a tall order
- SB%: Max Carey‘s 96.2% record (51 for 53) in 1922 is safe, but Ohtani could pass Jacoby Ellsbury (92.9% in 2013) for second place if he can avoid getting caught stealing the rest of the way
To amaze your friends, here is the same chart as above, but showing the first of the seasons represented for each cell of the table (click on the chart to make it bigger).
Ohtani’s 50/50 season is also the first 50/25 season and comes 69 years after the first 50/20 season. That is the largest gap between any two adjacent cells in the table, vertically or horizontally, surpassing the 66 years between the first 35/35 and 40/35 seasons.
None of those 20/20 seasons belongs to Babe Ruth (his stolen base season high was 17, and his failure to reach 20 is mostly because his stolen base success rate was barely 50%, both for his career and in his high SB seasons). That difference aside, the Bambino remains the lone player with a career even remotely resembling Ohtani’s. Here’s how those two careers look seven years in:
I guess if you’re going to be second to someone, Ruth would be the guy. Those Total WAR totals place Ruth T-8th over the first 7 years of a career, with Ohtani ranked 33rd. Here are those lists, for Batting WAR and Pitching WAR in the modern era.
The wild card races will be dominating attention the final week of the season, but cast a thought the way of the lowly White Sox as they battle to avoid becoming the worst team of the modern era. The Southsiders need to win 3 of their last 7 to finish with a better winning percentage than the 1916 Athletics (36-117). With games at San Diego (1), at home to the Angels (3) and at Detroit (3), that home series would seem to offer the best hope. The Sox did win 3 in a row earlier this week, so you know they’re still fighting for at least a sliver of respect.
I just checked in to see whether anyone was tracking the White Sox vs. the 1916 A’s. I needn’t have wondered.
A lot of attention has been paid over the years to teams approaching the Mets’ record 120 Ls in 1962 (in 160 games). The Tigers barely dodged that in 2003 by going 5-1 at the close to finish with 118 losses in 162 games (I had to wonder whether their opponents weren’t being kind). The ChiSox would need to go 7-0 now to avoid tying the Mets in Ls and 5-2 to avoid falling below the Mets’ .250 W-L. Having been present for about half a dozen of those Mets games, I’m looking forward to seeing the record for awfulness move on before I do.
But I never expected a challenge to Mack’s crew, which earned their .235 just two years removed from their last pennant (at .651). (Quite a pitching staff: Bush & Meyers went 29-47–not bad for an awful team–but the rest of the staff went 7-70, for a .091 W-L! Even the true all time aristocrats of awfulness, the 1899 Cleveland Outcasts, boasted a .130 W-L Pct.)
Before he was traded to the Cardinals, Erick Fedde actually had a winning record (7-4) in 21 starts (but he’s gone 1-5 for St. Louis). The Sox were 1-9 in Fedde’s ND games, with Fedde going 5+ IP in 8 of those contests. So, lots of lost leads (say that fast a few times) by the bullpen.
Michael Soroka, runner-up in the 2019 NL RoY vote, just returned to action Saturday and is currently sporting an 0-10 record. If he fails to record a winning decision, he would post the first 0-10+ season since Terry Felton’s record 0-13 for the 1982 Twins, one of only three such seasons in the modern era.
Chicago is 8 games below their Pythag prediction, which is a lot when you’ve won only 36 games. At their Pythag level, they would have a .284 winning percentage, just a couple of games below replacement level. Their batters are a collective -7 WAR, but the pitchers are actually +11 WAR, so they have evidently found some creative ways to lose games they should have won.
Chicago’s 21 game losing streak bracketing the All-Star break is tied for the second longest of the modern era (the 1961 Phils lost 23 in a row). The Sox are the first team with three losing streaks of 12 or more games.
Two wins for the Sox. Just one more to go to best Mack’s A’s.
And in the end the result was mixed for me. The ’62 Mets’ all-time record for losses was finally broken. But the ChiSox did exactly with the 2003 Tigers did and finished with a 5-1 run to best the Mets’ .250 Pct., with .253.
Well, ok. The total Loss record was the only awful superlative about the ’62 Mets and that’s now gone. The 1916 Mackmen always had the Pct. negative record and they still do.
Erick Fedde pulled out a last win, but the fact that he was so much more successful with Chicago than St. Louis is a mystery. Soroka did become the fourth member of the oh-and-double-digits club, finishing 0-10. Still, he has 17x more career wins than the other three members of the club combined so I predict a bright future.
Another thing to watch for this last week of the season is the Pitching Triple Crown watch, where Chris Sale and Tarik Skubal are leading their respective leagues in Wins, ERA and Strikeouts. Pitching Triple Crown winners in both leagues has happened only four times before.
Here are the season-ending series for those teams with realistic chances in the wild card hunt:
DET: TBR, CHW
KCR: @WSN, @ATL
BAL: @NYY, @MIN
SEA: @HOU, OAK
MIN: MIA, BAL
NYM: @ATL, @MIL
ATL: NYM, KCR
SDP: @LAD, @ARI
ARI: SFG, SDP
LAD: SDP, @COL
Orioles look to have the most challenging schedule, but they also have a sizable lead so, barring a total collapse, should make it. Tigers have the easiest schedule, so I’d give them the nod for a second spot. Coin toss for the third spot. The Royals and Twins are both struggling, but I’ll give Minnesota the edge based on a more favorable schedule. Seattle has been playing well, but could be tough to catch Minnesota, especially as the Twins have the tie-break.
Padres still have shot at the division, but they would probably have to sweep their series with the Dodgers to do it. Padres will get in, but the other two are a toss-up. I like the Mets, even with a tough schedule. Braves haven’t won 3 in a row all month, and haven’t won 4 in a row since before the A-S break, so hard to see them making up much ground, even playing at home. Give the nod to the D-Backs for the final spot.
Royals bats are still in hibernation, but their pitchers have come to the rescue, shutting out the Nats in the first two games of their series. First time in 32 years that the Royals have shut out the same opponent on the road in consecutive games.
as far as achievements, this may be a little odd. Corbin Carroll has scored 118 runs thus far and is batting .229 . In the live ball era, has anyone else scored as many runs with such an anemic BA? I gotta believe prior to 1920 when guys made a ton of errors, this was possible, but has anyone done it since 1920?
This was rare even before 1920. The only one I can see ever scoring over 120 runs with a sub .230 BA is Hugh Nicol. 122 runs while batting .215 for the 1887 Cincinnati Reds.
Tom,
Thank you for the research. Off the top of my head, I figured maybe Crossetti, Max Bishop, or Donie Bush and they were close. Hard to belive but I guess Carroll runs very well or there’s some timely hitting behind him. Thanks again.
Good thought about Crosetti. He scored 127 runs while batting .234 in 1937. Donie Bush had very similar numbers in 1911, with 126 runs and a .232 BA.
More recently, Kyle Schwarber’s 108 runs last season are the most with a sub-.200 BA. Schwarber’s .197 BA is also the lowest, by 46 points, in a 100 R/100 BB/100 RBI season.
Killebrew?
Killer scored 100 runs only twice, batting .269 in 1967 and .276 in 1969 (his MVP year), and leading the majors in homers both of those seasons.
Doug, sorry. I was wondering who the .243 hitter in the Schwarber comment may have been re 100/100/100?
Jay Buhner at .243 – spent 25 minutes of my remaining life looking for the prior record holder 🙂
Here’s the list, from the grotesque (.197) to the sublime (.406).
Thanks!
Ohtani’s last 8 games now he has 24 hit and 20 rbi’s. Are either of those the highest ever for an 8 game stretch?
How about the 12 extra base hits? 48 total bases?
Hottest 8 game stretch ever?
Here are the best 8 game stretches from Stathead.
Total Bases
53 – Shawn Green (2002)
52 – Willie Mays (1958), Jimmie Foxx (1933)
49 – Charlie Blackmon (2019), Don Mattingly (1987), Frank Howard (1965)
48 – Shohei Ohtani (2024)
Hits
26 – Heinie Manush (1933), Jimmy Johnston (1923)
25 – Kenny Lofton (1997), Milt Stock (1925)
24 – Shohei Ohtani (2024), Charlie Blackmon (2019), Joe Cronin (1933), Bill Terry (1932), Edd Roush (1929)
RBI
24 – Edwin Encarnacion (2015), Joe DiMaggio (1939), Lou Gehrig (1930)*
23 – Sammy Sosa (2002), Lou Gehrig (1931), Jim Bottomley (1929)
22 – Albert Belle (2000), Harmon Killebrew (1962), Chet Laabs (1942), Jimmie Foxx (1933), Lou Gehrig (1930)*, Mel Ott (1929), Honus Wagner (1901)
21 – Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (2024), Trevor Story (2022), Freddie Freeman (2020), Kevin Mench (2006), Larry Walker (1999), Andres Galarraga (1995), Mike Greenwell (1988), Don Mattingly (1987), Reggie Jackson (1969), Ken Harrelson (1968), Jim Gentile (1961), Del Ennis (1950), Moose Solters (1940), Hank Greenberg (1938), Bill Dickey (1938), Earl Averill (1938), Mel Ott (1934), Kiki Cuyler (1932), Pie Traynor (1928), Hack Wilson (1928)
*NOTE: Gehrig’s two 1930 spans were separate, 24 RBI in July and 22 RBI in June
Thanks Doug! Some cool streaks there to check out for sure!