Wednesday’s game notes

@Diamondbacks 10, Cardinals 9 (16): Ian Kennedy‘s pinch-sac-bunt, which was followed by Cliff Pennington‘s game-winning single, was valued at -0.013 WPA. Pardon the Snakes if they disagree. Arizona’s tying sac fly in the 12th was also set up with a sacrifice, by Gerardo Parra. He also homered, tripled and stole a base, becoming the first since Kenny Lofton ’92 with that assortment.

 

  • WPA doesn’t consider who’s available, of course. The D-backs were out of hitters when the pitcher’s spot came up. It’s the second time Kennedy has ever pinch-hit; both were sacrifices.
  • Martin Prado was all over this game. He singled during their go-ahead rally in the 5th; hit a tying 2-run HR in the 6th; singled during their tying rally in the 8th; and tied the game in the 12th with a flyout.
  • Winner Josh Collmenter‘s 5 innings were as much as either starter. Cards RP Joe Kelly surrendered a lead in both the 5th and 6th innings, each on a 2-run HR. Three Cardinals were charged with a Blown Save, in addition to the loss for Fernando Salas, who started the 16th with a 4-pitch walk.
  • The 16th-inning walk-off matched the latest in Arizona history.
  • Each team scored in the 12th. It’s the 5th straight Cards game of 15+ innings in which each team scored in extras before the final inning.

Rangers 4, @Astros 0: Back in the rotation again, Alexi Ogando had a career-best 10 strikeouts, and Houston was shut out in consecutive home games for the first time since 2005. (They might not match everything that squad did.) Ogando’s move to the bullpen last year, whatever the rationale, came back to haunt the Rangers. They lost Neftali Feliz (making the opposite switch) in May, then Colby Lewis at midseason, and saw Derek Holland, Scott Feldman and Roy Oswalt struggle, as they fell from 3rd to 8th in starters’ ERA. In the final series with Oakland that cost them the division, Texas started rookie Martin Perez (4 R, 4 IP in that game, and crushed by the A’s 5 days earlier), and deadline-deal question mark Ryan Dempster (5 R in 3 IP, 5.09 ERA with Texas).

  • Houston’s Brett Wallace and Chris Carter have been to the plate 22 times combined, producing a single and a walk (by Wallace), and 15 Ks. Carlos Pena has 2 singles and 6 Ks in his 11 trips, and Jason Castro is a generic 0 for 11. It’ll get better … it has to.
  • This just in: Citing eminent domain, the city of Houston has seized possession of Lance Berkman.

@Mets 8, Padres 4: Matt Harvey‘s first start this year: 7 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 10 SO, 94 pitches. His last of 2012: 7 IP, 1 H, 1 R, 3 BB, 7 SO. In Mets history, only R.A. Dickey and David Cone had consecutive starts of 7+ IP and 1 hit or less. (Dickey’s were both CG.)

  • Other Mets with three 10-K games within their first 11: Doc Gooden (4), Nolan Ryan (3).
  • Through 11 career starts, Harvey has a 2.44 ERA, 1.07 WHIP and 10.9 SO/9.

@Pirates 3, Cubs 0: Wandy Rodriguez is a good pitcher. His career stats against winning teams are better than against teams under .500 — e.g., .251/.265 BA, .716/.753 OPS. Someday, he might even land on one of those winners.

@Braves 9, Phillies 2: An odd start for Doc Halladay. He whiffed 9 out of 19 batters — but got just 1 other out, served 2 HRs, walked 3, threw 40 balls, and used 95 pitches. It’s his shortest start ever for 90+ pitches.

  • First time ever that the Braves hit 3+ HRs in each of their first 2 games.
  • Ryan Howard is going to see every lefty on the planet. Since 2012, he has 48 whiffs in 112 PAs vs. southpaws. Luis Avilan has fanned him 5 times in 6 tries.

@Athletics 6, Mariners 2: A sparse crowd saw the A’s dodge the sweep behind 7 extra-base hits and Tommy Milone‘s home brew. They’ve ranked in the bottom 3 of AL attendance for the past 7 years, yet their home-field advantage is larger than average.

  • Milone in Oakland: 8-4, 2.76. Everywhere else: 7-6, 4.60. The lefty acquired in the Gio deal settled in after a 2-HR, 5-flyball opening frame and a 2-on, no-out threat in the 2nd, getting 18 outs from his last 18 batters.

Indians 3, @Blue Jays 2 (11): The standard stanzas for Mark Reynolds showed strikeout with 2 on, strikeout leading off, GDP with 2 on, and popup with lead run on 2nd. Sergio Santos had him set up at 1-2 (don’t they all?) and tried to climb the ladder. Redemption … redemption songs.”

  • I was too young to remember it clearly, but didn’t Hondohammer the shoulder-high strike?
  • Ubaldo Jimenez ranked near the bottom in Quality Start percentage last year (13 of 31), so his strong 6 innings were a welcome sight to weary Tribe fans. But he still used about 5 pitches per batter.
  • The Jays had 2 solo HRs, but nobody else touched 2nd base.
  • Here’s a sight unseen since last July 2. And can this be right? Chris Perez had allowed 28 prior home runs, but none that tied the game.
  • The error goes to Izturis, but you can see why Edwin Encarnacion‘s best position is batter’s box.
  • Michael Brantley last year had a .373 OBP from July 1. After a strong spring, he’s reached safely in 7 of his first 9 trips.

Rockie 7, @Brewers 3: Cheers to Ron Roenicke for using his closer in the top of the 9th, down by a run. But his closer didn’t have it (doesn’t have it?): 3 first-pitch singles and a pair of homers. It’s the first time John Axford has allowed a HR in consecutive appearances.

  • Wilin Rosario had been 4 for 29 on a full count, before connecting off Wily Peralta in the 2nd.
  • Rickie Weeks has reached safely 3 times in all 3 games this year, a career-best streak.
  • Red Sox 7, @Yankees 4: Since the day Joe DiMaggio first donned pinstripes, it’s just the 2nd time the Yanks have dropped the first 2 games of the year at home. The last time was ’79, after 3 straight pennants. Meaningless? Certainly. But if it adds to the sense of Imperial decline, I’m all for it.
  • On the other hand, the last time New York lost its first 3 games of the year was 1998, and they seemed to recover all right.
  • Last time the visiting Red Sox beat the Yankees in the first 2 games of the year was 1935 (also known as the Year 1 A.B.). Wes Ferrell’s 2-hitter won the opener, 1-0, beating Lefty Gomez on an unearned run. Then Max Bishop tied game 2 in the 9th with a 2-run shot off Red Ruffing, and Bing Miller beat him with a pinch-hit in the 10th.

_______________

Through 1995, only Earl Torgeson and a couple of pitchers had 3+ strikeouts and at least 1 walk in a MLB debut of regulation length. Minnesota’s Aaron Hicks is the 6th position player to do that since 1996.

Filter this through every possible caveat about pitcher “wins”, but still: Since 1916, out of 462 pitchers with 100+ wins, Justin Verlander has won a higher percentage of his games than anyone else — 125 wins, 233 games. (Extending the search back to 1893 brings in 5 Hall of Famers and Jesse Tannehill.)

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Ed
Ed
11 years ago

“And can this be right? Chris Perez had allowed 28 prior home runs, but none that tied the game.”

Not sure where that tidbit came from but as you suspected it’s not true. While Perez did not give up any game tying home runs last year, he did give up this one in 2011:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/TEX/TEX201108050.shtml

There may be others, but once I found one, I figured it wasn’t worth searching any more.

RJ
RJ
11 years ago

“didn’t Hondo hammer the shoulder-high strike?”

Panda smoked a hiiiiigh fastball for a homer last night. I’d provide the link, but my internets are being fuzzy.

bstar
bstar
11 years ago
Reply to  RJ

I really wish I’d seen Hondo play. I just missed him.

Homers off of shoulder/chest-high pitches are definitely my favorites. There’s a suggestion of extra skill required when somebody turns on a high fastball.

Ed
Ed
11 years ago

Blue Jays have five home runs so far tonight (game in the bottom of the sixth). Last year they only had one five home run game and one six home run game.

Indians haven’t done badly either in the game….4 doubles and 2 home runs. Wind must be blowing out tonight.

Ed
Ed
11 years ago
Reply to  Ed

Meanwhile the Indians are now up to 6 doubles. Last year they only had one six double game.

Doug
Editor
11 years ago

Michael Brantley last year had a .373 OBP from July 1. After a strong spring, he’s reached safely in 7 of his first 9 trips.

The Blue Jays finally put the collar on Brantley tonight but, through yesterday, he had reached base at least twice in all 8 of his career games at Rogers Centre, good for a 1.611 OPS, tops among visitors (min. 30 PAs). His strong second half in 2012 was keyed by an 8 for 11 series (3 doubles, HR, 2 BB) in Toronto right after the A-S break.

no statistician but
no statistician but
11 years ago

The closing comment on Justin Verlander: could that just(in) possibly be because he has never thrown one pitch in relief? Earlier high percentage winners like Grove and Ford had the misfortune of performing before the era of the 13-man pitching staff. The six pre-1916 pitchers who best him also pitched the majority of their games complete. This fact tells us more about the differences in eras than it does about Verlander, I’m thinking. Pedro Martinez, from age 22 to 29 won 122 out of 229, virtually the same percentage, although he had 3 relief appearances resulting in one win, no… Read more »

no statistician but
no statistician but
11 years ago
Reply to  John Autin

JA:

I only mentioned Grove and Ford because I remembered them as having high winning %.

The meat of my comment, if there was one, is that the fact you point out may not be a simple curiosity but an indicator of something interesting, since Martinez, a relatively recent pitcher with a high W-L %, performed similarly during the same years of his career.

Past my bedtime.

JDV
JDV
11 years ago
Reply to  John Autin

Mike Mussina won 50.4% of his starts.

Another Oriole-related note: Chris Davis is on a pace to drive in 594 runs this year.

Ed
Ed
11 years ago
Reply to  John Autin

Looking at Verlander’s run support splits and comparing them to the other pitchers John mentioned, I see some interesting things: 1) Verlander has been by far the worst of the 5 in terms of winning games when given 0-2 runs. He’s only won 10.5% of such starts. Compare that to Maddux (18.8%), Johnson (22.6%), Martinez (21.8%) and Clemens (17.4%). 2) Verlander has the won the second highest percentage of starts when given 6+ run: Verlander (75.8%), Madddux (77.9%), Johnson (72.7%), Martinez (71.9%), Clemens (71.6%). Oddly Verlander has the lowest winning percentage (.920) of the five, when getting 6+ runs. BTW,… Read more »

no statistician but
no statistician but
11 years ago
Reply to  Ed

Ed and JA: Since I brought up Grove and Ford, I feel obligated to provide their stats given Ed’s criteria: 1) Grove won 21.1% of his starts with 0-2 runs in support; Ford won 24.8%. 2) Grove won 75.7% with 6+; Ford won 71.8%. Grove’s W-L % was .950 in such games when he got the decision; Ford’s was 1.000—that is, he never took the loss if the team gave him 6 or more. 3) Grove won 58.2% of his starts when he got 3-5 runs in support; Ford won 49.7. Grove’s ERA splits were 2.93 when he got low… Read more »

Ed
Ed
11 years ago

NSB: Thanks for the info re: Ford and Grove.

The stat re: Ford is amazing! The only other pitchers I can find who won 50+ games and had no losses when getting 6+ runs are Howie Pollet and Joaquin Andujar. They both went 54-0.

As for what it means, who knows? I do think my post #14 shows that Verlander has gotten a bit more support than the other pitchers John mentioned.

BTW, I’m mostly impressed at how well Johnson and Martinez did when only getting 0-2 runs of support.

BryanM
BryanM
11 years ago
Reply to  Ed

Wonder what it means when a pitcher can win often when getting 3-5 runs? May be just a statistical quirk, but you’d think such a habit would be a psychological boost to his teammates.
Not exactly pitching to the score as a BlueJays announcer is alleged to have formerly done, but “pitching well enough to win” a great trait if it is indeed a skill and not a meaningless data point.

no statistician but
no statistician but
11 years ago
Reply to  BryanM

Ed:

Neither of us dropped the bomb on Ford’s invincibility with 6+ runs.

112-0.