More Fans Than Reggie Jackson?

I recently posted on the very long-term and continuing growth in the prevalence of the strikeout in the major leagues over many decades. For example in 1982, there were an average of 5.04 strikeouts per game in the major leagues, as compared to 7.10 strikeouts per game in 2011. All the more remarkable, then, that Reggie Jackson has continuously held the all-time career strikeout record for a hitter since 1982, with the 30th anniversary of his setting the all-time record coming up in August. Details, and challengers to his record, after you click that clever little “Read The Rest of This Entry ” line.

By my calculations, Reggie passed Willie Stargell as the all-time strikeout king on August 20, 1982. Stargell had begun the 1982 season, which turned out to be his last in the majors, with 1,912 Ks to Jackson’s 1,810.   As of August 18, 1982 Willie had only 16 strikeouts on the season, for a career total of 1,928 (Stargell hadn’t played since August 15 and wouldn’t get back into a game until August 22).  Meanwhile, on that same August 18, Reggie went 0 for 4, including three strikeouts in three plate appearances against John Tudor of the Red Sox.  Those three Ks made it 118 for Reggie on the season, tying Stargell’s career figure of 1,928.  Jackson somehow failed to strike out on August 19th, but on August 20th, with Stargell still on the shelf, Reggie fanned twice to take over the all-time record, with five seasons still left in his career.

Thirty years later, there are serious challengers among us: (1) a veteran who is very close to the record but at the tail end of his career; (2) an all-time great in possible decline whose long-term contract might help get him the record; and (3) a strikeout prodigy who seemed a sure thing to break the record but has suffered a deep mid-career crisis.

The all-time career strikeout leaders:
1. Reggie Jackson 2,597
2. Jim Thome 2,487
3. Sammy Sosa 2,306
4. Andres Galarraga 2,003
5. Jose Canseco 1,942
6. Willie Stargell 1,936

The active career strikeout leaders:
1. Jim Thome 2,487
2. Alex Rodriguez 1,916
3. Manny Ramirez 1,813
4. Adam Dunn 1,809
5. Bobby Abreu 1,763

Manny and Abreu are obviously too late in their careers to catch Reggie, so that leaves the other three guys, each with a very different sort of opportunity at the record.

Jim Thome needs only 111 more Ks to pass Reggie — he is thisclose. But it’s unclear where he will get the plate appearances necessary to get those last 111 Ks. He’s a DH playing in the NL this season and he’ll turn 42 years old in August. He almost certainly needs to play both this season and next — he hasn’t had 100 Ks in a season since 2009 — and you have to wonder if that is likely.

A few years ago, Alex Rodriguez seemed like a sure thing to eventually pass Reggie, just as he seemed a sure thing to set the career home run record. But he turns 37 in July and he’s averaged just 124 games a season the last four years. Whether he will ever be as prolific, in homers or whiffs or anything else, as he once was, is a serious question. But then he also has a contract that guarantees him astounding sums of money every year for another six years, and playing six more seasons even at a highly reduced production level may be sufficient for him to rack up enough strikeouts to beat Reggie’s, or perhaps Jim Thome’s, record.

Adam Dunn has been by far the most prolific whiffer in major league history for his age; he is way, way far ahead of Reggie Jackson’s, or anyone else’s, strikeout pace through the same age.

Most MLB Career Strikeouts Through Age 31 Season:
1. Adam Dunn 1,809
2. Sammy Sosa 1,537
3. Alex Rodriguez 1,524
4. Andruw Jones 1,470
5. Bobby Bonds 1,384
6. Jim Thome 1,377
7. Reggie Jackson 1,366

The only issue for Dunn is that last season he suddenly played like someone who did not belong in the major leagues anymore. As has been noted here at HHS, the depth and speed of Dunn’s stunning decline is extremely unusual (John Milton himself, had he not already covered the story, might have been inspired by this Fall of Adam). But then Dunn has been an unusual sort of player, and the likelihood of his recovery is unclear. Can Dunn come back sufficiently to eventually gain the All-Time Strikeout King crown that had seemed to be his for the taking? Can anybody, finally, after all these years, out-fan Reggie Jackson?

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Dr. Doom
Dr. Doom
12 years ago

birtelcom, you’re a great poster. I enjoyed your humor. And, most especially, I like your analysis here. Great catches all around. I’m still shocked, though, that anyone ever considered A-Rod a “lock” to break the HR record. I always thought it was a bit of a long shot. But anyway, this record is one of the most interesting in sports. This, and QB interceptions, turnovers by an NBA player, etc. – the records in which you have to have a serious weakness, but be so good that you play for a long time in order to compensate for that weakness.… Read more »

Ed
Ed
12 years ago
Reply to  Dr. Doom

Rodriguez is still 55 homes runs ahead of anyone else through age 35 (Sammy Sosa is 2nd…wouldn’t have expected that). He’s 64 ahead of Ruth, 75 ahead of Aaron and 135 ahead of Bonds. And if we looked at even earlier ages, his lead would be even bigger. So I don’t think it’s that surprising that he was expected to break the HR record. And he still could though he’ll obviously need to bounce back and stay healthy.

John Autin
Editor
12 years ago
Reply to  Ed

FWIW, Bill James’s Career Assessment Tool (here I go again) saw A-Rod’s chance of surpassing Aaron’s HR total as:
– 52% through 2008
– 64% through 2009
– 41% through 2010
– 26% through 2011

Hitting 30 HRs this year would only up his odds to 28%. Even hitting 40 HRs would only get him to 43%. Hitting 44 HRs would get him to 50%.

(Of course, it’s just a “toy”….)

Ed
Ed
12 years ago
Reply to  John Autin

Wonder what it would have said for Bonds around 1999? Or Aaron at basically any point in his career?

Ed
Ed
12 years ago
Reply to  Ed

BTW, I think one of the problems with Bill James’ “toy” is that it likely underestimates career length, particularly for elite players. The formula is (42-age)/2. So basically it’s projecting ARod to retire around age 38 or 39. I’d expect him to shift to DH and play a few years beyond that, particularly since his current contract goes through age 41.

John Autin
Editor
12 years ago
Reply to  Ed

Ed, I agree that the method doesn’t account for long-term guaranteed contracts that extend past age 40. In some cases, those deals will supply playing time to players who wouldn’t otherwise get it. Still, I like the “toy” as a reality check. I think we all tend to underestimate both the challenges of remaining a productive hitter into the late 30s and beyond, and the suddenness with which a thriving career can be ended. Finally … A-Rod has 111 HRs for ages 32-35. I looked at the 48 players who had 100 to 130 HRs in that span. From age… Read more »

Doug
Doug
12 years ago
Reply to  Ed

Absolutely agree Ed, concerning elite players.

The current estimate is actually a revision from the original, which was 24-.6*Age. That formula gives zero remainining career length at age 40 versus age 42 (obviously) for the current formula.(There is an override that says anyone still active is assumed to have some minimum remaining career length, but can’t remember what that constant was.)

John Autin
Editor
12 years ago
Reply to  Ed

Career Assessment Tool looks at Henry Aaron’s chance of hitting 715 HRs through the ages: Age 33 (481 HRs) – 21% Age 34 (510 HRs) – 28% Age 35 (554 HRs) – 29% Age 36 (592 HRs) – 37% Age 37 (639 HRs) – 90% Age 38 (673 HRs) – 97% By comparison, Willie Mays: Age 33 (453 HRs) – 27% Age 34 (505 HRs) – 33% Age 35 (542 HRs) – 45% Age 36 (564 HRs) – 33% Age 37 (587 HRs) – 8% Age 38 (600 HRs) – 0% The turning point for each was age 36-37: Aaron… Read more »

bstar
12 years ago
Reply to  Ed

Yeah, I agree, Ed. I don’t think he really was ever considered a “lock” to break the record, or at the very least I don’t think the majority of people out there thought he would. I think by that time most of us had taken a lesson from Junior Griffey’s bad health/decline in the last half of his career and had learned to not peer too deeply into the future about how many home runs a player might end up with. I would like to see A-Rod stay healthy for one full year and see what he could still do;… Read more »

bstar
12 years ago
Reply to  bstar

This was a reply to your #4 comment, Ed.

nightfly
12 years ago
Reply to  Ed

Pete Rose once remarked, “3000 hits is easy, it’s the last 1000 that are hard.” It applies to any of these records, even whiffs. You’ve got to be great for such a long time just to get “on a pace” and then you’ve got to fight age and injury to stay great long enough to get there. ARod seemed like a reasonable bet for 800 homers… heck he had 518 at the end of 2007; 629 now. DHing a lot will certainly help, too… but he’s going to have to be an all-time old hitter to get there, in either… Read more »

bstar
12 years ago
Reply to  nightfly

Nightfly, A-Rod is entering his age 36 season, not 37. From that age and beyond, 49 players have hit 71 or more home runs, and 11 have hit 134 or more. I personally think only continual nagging injuries would be the only thing to keep Rodriguez from 700, although he kind of is turning into Chipper Jones part II based on his injury record the last four years.

nightfly
12 years ago
Reply to  bstar

Wasn’t ARod born in July of ’75? I thought the cutoff was anyone a certain age by July 31.

Ed
Ed
12 years ago
Reply to  bstar

I’m not an expert on these sort of things but he was born on July 27th, 1975. So he’s probably straddling the line.

bstar
12 years ago
Reply to  bstar

Aargh. I can’t find where B-Ref states where the cutoff is; I was thinking July 4. Anyway, according to B-Ref, last year was his “age 35” season. Since he’s right near the cutoff line, perhaps averaging our two queries, nightfly, might give the best view of things.

Doug
Doug
12 years ago
Reply to  bstar

The B-Ref cutoff is June 30. A-Rod will still be 36 then, but 37 will be right around the corner.

nightfly
12 years ago
Reply to  bstar

Ugh, I’m a doofus. Cutoff is June 30, not July 31. Even so, I should have been able to see the AGE column in the player tables. Thanks all for the correction!

Thomas
Thomas
12 years ago

I was going to write a response about Mark Reynolds but took a look and he’s only in 5th place for k’s through a player’s 27 age season. Although, he’s only played 5 years, and he blows everyone away if you look at k’s in the first 5 seasons, being (roughly) 310 ahead of Reggie’s pace. I can’t fathom Reynolds getting nearly enough games/plate appearances to get close to the record though.

deal
12 years ago
Reply to  Thomas

Yes I too thought of Reynolds, but his carreer Ks will suffer from something that has hurt many an accumulater. He started to late. The other guys we have talked about here A-Rod, Thome, Reggie were all in the bigs by the age of 21. Reynolds didn’t arrive until 23. 2 solid seasons of 200Ks at the front end of his career would have made a significant difference.

Doug
Doug
12 years ago

I looked at players aged 30 to 32 with a season of 400 PAs and OPS+ under 60. Mostly light-hitting infielders, as might be expected. The closest comparison to Dunn among this group might be Scott Brosius in 1997 at age 30, who suffered a similar sudden drop-off in OPS+ going from 127 to 53. Obviously not similar hitters, but similar kind of drop-off. Brosius, of course, recovered in 1998, but then tailed off again, staying around after 1999 on the strength of his defense, a luxury Dunn doesn’t enjoy. Unless Dunn has a really short memory, difficult to see… Read more »

bstar
12 years ago
Reply to  Doug

Dunn always said he didn’t want to DH, and one of the reasons was because he derived so much enjoyment from chatting up opposing players on first base. I think at this point only a return to the NL(and hours of therapy) might save him, but who wants that glove at 1B?

Ed
Ed
12 years ago
Reply to  bstar

In spring training, Dunn’s splits are .255/.415/.569 with 5 HRs. I tend not to put a lot of stock into spring training but I’d say those numbers are encouraging re: a bounceback.

bstar
12 years ago
Reply to  Ed

Good for him. I hadnt heard that.

Ed
Ed
12 years ago
Reply to  bstar

Spring training stats can be found on sportsline.com Just go to MLB, then Team. Pick the team you’re interested in, and then click Stats.

kds
kds
12 years ago
Reply to  bstar

Before 2010 Dunn was an outfielder who played 1B rarely,(and badly). That year he was the starting 1B from the beginning, so for the first time he spent all of ST there. He ended up as close to average in defense at 1B.

I don’t know how the decision to go to CWS was made. If it was primarily his agent, the agent should be fired. If it was mostly Dunn, he should change his decision making process to pay more attention to things like not being a DH.

Timmy Pea
Timmy Pea
12 years ago

The comparison of K’s in 1982 and today really hits home to me. It doesn’t surprise me, but I’d not heard it put that way before. It’s clear that players such as Rickey Weeks are not going to waste a chance to hit homers with 2 strikes in the count. Probably not possible, but I’d love to see a comparison of 2 strike HR’s today vs. 1972 or 1962.

bstar
12 years ago
Reply to  Timmy Pea

Timmy, yes you can get that 2-strike HR info at B-Reference. Just go to seasons, then 2011(or whatever year) MLB, then, under batting splits, scroll down to find the profile of all batters with two strikes. It will list their HR, and PA/AB also.

Ed
Ed
12 years ago
Reply to  bstar

Unfortunately pitch count data doesn’t go back that far. Not sure when it starts, but it’s definitely post ’82.

John Autin
Editor
12 years ago
Reply to  Ed

Generally, pitch count data on B-R starts in 1988.

John Autin
Editor
12 years ago
Reply to  Timmy Pea

Comparing 2-strike HRs in 2011 and in 1988, which is as far back as we have data:

– In 1988, 2-strike HRs made up 27.5% of all HRs. In 2011, they were 30.3% of all HRs. That’s a 10% rise.

– In 1988, HRs on 0-2 or 1-2 counts combined for 10.5% of all HRs. In 2011, they were 11.7%. That’s an 11% rise.

– In 1988, 18.6% of all HRs came with the pitcher ahead in the count. In 2011, it was 22.1%. That’s a 19% rise.

So, not a giant spike in the graph, but a decided up-tick.

Ed
Ed
12 years ago
Reply to  John Autin

But there’s also been an increase in 2 strike counts. In 1988, 42.2% of PAs went to two strikes (I subtracted out the 2483 PAs of unknown count). In 2011, 48.8% of PAs went to two strikes, a 15.6% increase.

John Autin
Editor
12 years ago
Reply to  Ed

Good point, Ed. I’ll rephrase in terms that account for the rise in 2-strike counts overall. HRs per 700 PAs: – 2 strikes: 9.2 in 1988, 10.7 in 2011, 15% rise. – 0-2 and 1-2 counts: 7.5 in 1988, 8.8 in 2011, 18% rise. – Pitcher ahead: 9.2 in 1988, 11.8 in 2011, 29% rise. Ah, but now I’ve neglected the overall rise in HR rates, from 14.0 HR/700 in 1988 to 17.2 HR/700 in 2011. So here are the ratios of HR/700 for the given counts to the overall HR/700: – 2 strikes: 0.66 in 1988, 0.62 in 2011,… Read more »

Ed
Ed
12 years ago
Reply to  John Autin

Thanks John! The unknown counts in 1988 were only 1.5% of PAs so not a big factor overall.

Timmy Pea
Timmy Pea
12 years ago

I have been thinking quite a bit lately about the walk, and the walk as a veridical paradox. I have not read any Bill James, but I have come to understand his philosophy through posters here and at B-Ref. Last week Joe Morgan came up and it got me thinking again about the walk. The walk as a choice. A walk is a choice, a player like Morgan or Rickey Henderson sets out an AB thinking a walk is an accomplishment. To swing the bat or not is really the biggest decision a hitter has.

Lawrence Azrin
Lawrence Azrin
12 years ago
Reply to  birtelcom

Despite Bill James’ influence, there are still a lot of people who judge hitters only by their Triple Crown stats. If you replaced BA with OBA in the Triple Crown trinity, it still wouldn’t be ideal, but it would be improved.

I have seen OBA prominently displayed on some ballpark scoreboards, so that’s progress.

John Autin
Editor
12 years ago
Reply to  Timmy Pea

“To swing the bat or not is really the biggest decision a hitter has.”

I sense a breakthrough moment here, Timmy!

no statistician but
no statistician but
12 years ago
Reply to  John Autin

And yet, when I was playing baseball back in the Fifties and early Sixties, “A walk is as good as a hit” was the philosophy when a game was late and close and the count reached three balls. Anyone else remember that? And working the pitcher for a walk was encouraged in general terms. So in game situations, if not in statistical awareness, walks were valued.

bstar
12 years ago

That’s good info. Unfortunately, it took the viewing public and the BBWAA a lot longer to figure it out.

Richard Chester
Richard Chester
12 years ago

Yes, I remember that.

Doug
Editor
12 years ago

My recollection from sandlot play in the late 60s is more like “a walk is as good as a hit” is what you would shout out to encourage a weak-hitting teammate at the plate who happened to get ahead in the count, especially in a late/close situation. If you were a really weak hitter (like me), you might hear that even as you were walking up to the plate. The team really hoped you would draw a walk because they didn’t have much confidence in what you might do swinging away.

no statistician but
no statistician but
12 years ago
Reply to  Doug

That, of course, was true enough, but in the higher leagues I played in, the coaches stressed the idea that getting on base, not making outs, was the real deal, and going after bad pitches in tight game situations was a betrayal to the team. Every runner on base puts stress on the pitcher and the defense, as you surely noticed playing in the field.

kds
kds
12 years ago

Ted Williams was still playing in the 50’s and after retiring he was writing, and during this period he was always talking about hitting. His philosophy was to wait for a good pitch, and not swing until you got one. Then swing hard. The walks come from the waiting. This idea goes back at least to Babe Ruth.
Bill James deserves credit for making the usefulness of walks better known, but the idea was not original to him. (Not that he has ever claimed it was.)

Mike L
Mike L
12 years ago

If I had to take a guess, I would say A-Rod isn’t going to make either the home run or K record. Age and the hip are going to come into play. I realize this is counter-intuitive, but the size and the length of his contract may work against him. The Yankees have to try to keep him healthy-that means more rest, fewer at bats, more late game defensive replacements in blow-outs, etc. That will push more at bats, if they are there, until later in his career, where he’s likely to be less productive. It’s still possible for a… Read more »

wlcmlc
wlcmlc
12 years ago

A-rod needs 134 homeruns to get to 763. If he hits 111 over the next 4 years like he has done the past 4 years he is still 23 short. If his health/endurance don’t improve I do not think he has a shot.

mosc
mosc
12 years ago
Reply to  birtelcom

I think yes. This would also come up on vesting options on released players. That said, most released players don’t get major league deals. Also, I doubt he would clear outright release wavers even now let alone at the tail end of his front loaded contract. Through all the A-Rod hate, people have lost sight of how historic his ability is. Overpaid certainly, but far from unproductive. He’s also been an above average glove at third since signing the latest 10 year deal prior to the 2008 season (dwar be damned). And the contract was intentionally front loaded to make… Read more »

Mike L
Mike L
12 years ago
Reply to  birtelcom

I doubt you can void the contract incentive clauses by releasing him, unless there’s some specific language in there that permits that. When a player is waived, another team gets to pick up the balance of his contract, with all its terms. If no one makes a waiver claim and he’s subsequently released, the original team is on the hook for the entire deal, less the prorated minimum MLB salary which has to be paid by a new team who picks hm up.

John Autin
Editor
12 years ago
Reply to  birtelcom

“… and he is still at least a decent enough player that he is not actually harming the team …” Obviously, that’s a key measure for A-Rod’s future. But it can’t be evaluated in the abstract or in isolation. What will the Yankee lineup and roster look like 2, 3, 4, 5 years from now? If the time comes when A-Rod’s production on its own does not justify a lineup or even a roster spot, will they at that time be already “carrying” any other big-contract, underperforming stars? It appears that Jeter is already being paid and played far more… Read more »

mosc
mosc
12 years ago
Reply to  John Autin

Wow that is a lot of Yankee hate. You think >.800 OPS players grow on trees? You are talking about a list of guys who are all way above average. Tex is about to enter his year 32 season. He’s also about as good defensively as first basemen get and has played 156+ games in each of the last 4 seasons. You can’t bring somebody up from the minors and get 39 home runs out of them. That’s not replacement level play and I’m tired of the bias. The Yankees offense has several bats that are amongst the best in… Read more »

Lawrence Azrin
Lawrence Azrin
12 years ago
Reply to  mosc

OK, where’s the “Yankee hate” in John Autin’s post in #39? If you want to see real “Yankee Hate”, I can direct you towards any number of Red Sox blogs… John is merely pointing out that the Yankees have three players with mega-mega-contracts (A-Rod, Tex, Jeter) who are clearly in a state of decline. It’s all over their numbers, whether traditional or advanced. OK, Jeter had a bit of a comeback, but he clearly isn’t the player he was three years ago. Texeira’s contract goes till 2016, A-Rod’s till 2017 – at $20 million+ a year, they can be a… Read more »

John Autin
Editor
12 years ago
Reply to  mosc

Mosc, I definitely don’t root for the Yanks, but I meant to be objective in my remarks. Guys with .800 OPS don’t grow on trees. But in that park, they don’t necessarily carry a team to a championship. Nobody’s suggesting that the Yankees could bring up a minor-leaguer to replace Teixeira. They do have other avenues of talent acquisition, though. And whatever his raw numbers, the fact is that Teixeira over the past 2 years has not been a top-tier first baseman: – Teix ranked 8th among 1Bs with 39 Rbat — but there’s a huge gap between the #6… Read more »

Mike L
Mike L
12 years ago
Reply to  mosc

Mosc, in defense of John A, I agree with him in part (and I have nearly 50 years of Yankee rooting in the tank for bona fides purposes.) I do think A-Rod will continue to decline, and his salary will make it difficult for the Yankees to deal with his position, just like Giambi was an albatross before him. More and more, the Yankees will have to carry a competent near regular extra third baseman. Jeter is obviously at the tail end of his career. I’m with you on Texiera-he’s not old and he’s not injured, so I don’t think… Read more »

John Autin
Editor
12 years ago
Reply to  mosc

Mike L. @45 re: “Pinstripe Nation” — I’m sorry, did I make up that phrase? Should I have said Pinstripe Planet? Gehrig’s Galaxy? Mickey’s Multiverse? 🙂

Mike L
Mike L
12 years ago
Reply to  mosc

John A @49. The word “Nation” is far too closely associated with those denizens of the deep residing in the Boston area. That, and people who like to watch Colbert Report. The simple, elegant, classic, “Yankee Fan” is sufficient…..

mosc
mosc
12 years ago
Reply to  mosc

I don’t think Tex is “in the decline” and will never again reach anything higher than he has over the past 2 years. He’s still young and his rare power from both sides of the plate has not declined. The number decline is mostly due to a reduced OBP against right handed pitching mostly due to teams using an overshift against him. It’s quite unusual to use one against a switch hitter. His numbers against left handed pitching are actually improved steadily in recent years: 2008: .902 2009: .911 2010: .940 2011: .967 I think it’s reasonable to expect his… Read more »

John Autin
Editor
12 years ago
Reply to  mosc

Mosc @53 — I do not expect to change your opinion of Mark Teixeira. But as a purely factual matter: – There’s no reasonable definition of “young” that includes age 32 for a big-league hitter. A mountain of data supports me. – Chalking up Teixeira’s declining numbers to the use of a defensive overshift is no different from saying that (hypothetically) he can’t catch up to the outside fastball anymore. Both are opponents’ strategies that will continue to be effective unless the hitter is able to change his approach. – His decline against RHPs in 2010-11 is clearly not just… Read more »

bstar
12 years ago
Reply to  mosc

Didn’t Texeira make some noise earlier this spring about bunting with the shift on? This would have required him to do some extra work in the offseason, something Texeira is infamous for not doing. Tex owns a career .775 OPS in March/April; every other monthly split is at .899 or better. John Smoltz once blasted Texeira for his “unprofessional” approach to the offseason.

And no, Mosc, I dont mean to pile on Tex. I still wonder how much better the Braves would have been the last few years had they been able to keep him a while longer.

John Autin
Editor
12 years ago
Reply to  mosc

bstar @61 – I’d love to see Teixeira do some bunting, but I wouldn’t hold my breath. His next bunt attempt of any kind, whether it’s successful or not, will be his first in the big leagues.

bstar
12 years ago
Reply to  mosc

LOL, yes I know. I kinda doubt it too.

Ed
Ed
12 years ago
Reply to  mosc

Yes, Tex has talked about bunting. He also came to camp 10-15 pounds lighter than normal, he’s been “juicing”, eating natural foods, etc. If remember correctly, he’s trying to increase his speed so he can get to first base quicker.

http://espn.go.com/blog/new-york/yankees/post/_/id/27998/first-pitch-is-the-shift-in-teixeiras-head

Ed
Ed
12 years ago
Reply to  John Autin

A bit off topic…but what’s up with all the really long-term contracts being given to 1st basemen? Joey Votto for 10 years, $225 million????

Mike L
Mike L
12 years ago
Reply to  Ed

Not off topic at all. I think it’s a little crazy. Multiply the actual cost of the contract by 20%, because in the back ends of those deals, those players aren’t going to be stars.

Ed
Ed
12 years ago
Reply to  Ed

Here’s a link to the 20 longest contracts in baseball history (pre-Votto):

http://mlb.sbnation.com/2012/1/24/2730595/prince-fielder-longest-contract-baseball-history

Many of these are ongoing but overall I’d say the track record on these signings isn’t very good. And I really wonder what’s fueling all the recent really long contracts.

mosc
mosc
12 years ago
Reply to  Ed

RSN’s are creating a very different economic model for baseball teams. They now have much more money and want to lock up their top player as the face of the franchise as much for branding and newfound financial flexibility as on field ability.

brp
brp
12 years ago
Reply to  Ed

I have to say that I think part of the attraction is that by the time that long contract is done 10 years from now, even though the player (Votto or Pujols or Cain or whatever recent contract you want to use) assuredly won’t be near their peak, that $22 million is going to be less of a burden than if they had signed the player to two five-year contracts. There’s always going to be a few teams willing to overpay, and I think mosc @54 has it on the head as well – teams realize that there’s something to… Read more »

bstar
12 years ago
Reply to  Ed

I think it’s actually a good sign for baseball that a small-market team was able (or thought they were able) to afford such a contract and lock their best player up for the rest of his career. Since some of the large market teams are running into luxury tax issues, is this an indicaton that baseball is actually moving towards parity and not away from it? I hope so.

John Autin
Editor
12 years ago
Reply to  Ed

I wish I could share the view that it’s a good sign for mid-market teams. But I’m afraid that in 5 years, we’ll realize just how confining these megayear/megadollar deals can be for teams that can’t afford to just pay off their mistakes and make them go away a la A.J. Burnett. As for the Reds specifically, all I can say is: How quickly we forget! In 2000, they hitched their wagon to Junior Griffey, then at the top of his game but entering his age-30 season. They signed him to a 9-year, $113-million extension — the biggest guaranteed contract… Read more »

Mike L
Mike L
12 years ago
Reply to  Ed

In the long run, the growth of super-regional TV markets will be great for franchise values, but very bad for competitive balance. The way fans think hasn’t yet adapted to a post Yankee-centric economic domination, but it will eventually when reality sets in. As big a fish as the Yankees are, they can only eat one first baseman, one third baseman, etc every few years. That leaves the nimbler among the smaller market teams to scoop up value at reasonable prices. But when you are also competing against the Red Sox, Phillies, Dodgers, Angels, Tigers, Rangers, etc. etc. those teams… Read more »

bstar
12 years ago
Reply to  Ed

Ignoring the financial side of this deal, I still think Reds fans are happy today, other than those who like to play GMs themselves and are familiar with how such a big contract can destroy a team long-term(that’s not a knock on anybody who does this). But isn’t the whole point to win championships? The Reds’ immediate future looks brighter today, and one more very good/possibly great player will probably play his entire career for one team. Don’t we all lament the absence of these players in today’s game? There are a lot of positives in that.

Ed
Ed
12 years ago
Reply to  Ed

As an Indian’s fan, I can offer you Travis Hafner and Grady Sizemore. Neither contract was anywhere close to 10 years but both blew up and have definitely hamstrung the team the past few years. (the Sizemore one made sense at the time; Hafner’s didn’t…it was midseason and he wasn’t playing well).

bstar
12 years ago
Reply to  Ed

Ed, Dave Cameron at Fangraphs estimated that Joey Votto only needs ~41 WAR over the ten years covered in the contract to justify it, based on his current idea of $/WAR, estimated inflation, and Votto’s eventual decline. And that doesn’t include extra ticket sales, jerseys, an increase in TV money, etc. that will come from having Votto in the lineup. So he actually needs far fewer WAR than that for the deal to make sense. Sure, the amount is a shocker, but every time the bar gets raised it initially looks like a terrible deal, but three or four years… Read more »

Ed
Ed
12 years ago
Reply to  Ed

Supposedly the Votto deal was a reaction to the recent sale of the Dodgers. Votto wasn’t scheduled to be a free agent for a few more years, at which point, all the big market teams (except the Cubs) were already committed to a first baseman. But with the Dodgers becoming a player again, the Reds decided it was worth the risk to go ahead and lock Votto up.

bstar
12 years ago
Reply to  Ed

Correction to #69 post: Votto needs to produce 41 WAR to cover from age 28-39, not just the last ten years of that tenure.

Ed
Ed
12 years ago
Reply to  Ed

Bstar – Actually I think it would be less than that since Fangraphs WAR tends to be scaled higher than B-Ref’s WAR. That’s assuming one buys into the rest of Cameron’s assumptions.

bstar
12 years ago
Reply to  Ed

That’s another point in Votto’s favor, I guess. You’re right, through 4 yrs and a cup of coffee, he has ~3 more fWAR than bWAR. This is mainly from an upgrade in his dWAR, though, and UZR(fWAR) is the preferred choice for infielder computations, according to Sean Smith.

john williams
john williams
12 years ago

I hate to say it, but so what if A Rod passes Hank Aaron or Barry Bonds. We have questions about him being “juiced” and the overall devaluing of the home run in the past 20 years. Look at the Mets moving in the fences after such a short time.