Quiz – Journeymen and a HOFer (stumped)

It’s been like forever since I made a Quiz post. So, here’s one to sharpen your sleuthing skills as we head into a new season. I’ve characterized the pitchers in this quiz as journeymen in the best sense of the term – those who recorded solid workloads near league average performance for extended periods. But, these players are also the only pitchers to play their entire careers since 1946 and record a certain career accomplishment. What is it?

Hint: there were 77 pitchers who accomplished this feat while playing all or part of their careers from 1901 to 1945.

Seems I’ve managed to stump our esteemed panel. The solution is after the jump.

The players in the quiz are the only starting pitchers (60% of games started) to play their entire careers (min. 2000 IP) since 1946 and record shutouts in less than 15% of their complete games. A ninth pitcher (Johnny Sain), whose career spanned the 1946 cutoff, meets this criteria and recorded all of his complete games since 1946.

Rk Player Year SHO CG IP From To Age G GS W L W-L% BB SO ERA FIP ERA+ Tm
1 Jim Clancy 1991 11 74 2517.1 1977 1991 21-35 472 381 140 167 .456 947 1422 4.23 4.04 98 TOR-HOU-ATL
2 Milt Wilcox 1986 10 73 2016.2 1970 1986 20-36 394 283 119 113 .513 770 1137 4.07 4.10 97 CIN-CLE-CHC-DET-SEA
3 Mike Torrez 1984 15 117 3043.2 1967 1984 20-37 494 458 185 160 .536 1371 1404 3.96 4.07 98 STL-MON-BAL-OAK-NYY-BOS-NYM
4 Dick Ellsworth 1971 9 87 2155.2 1958 1971 18-31 407 310 115 137 .456 595 1140 3.72 3.54 100 CHC-PHI-BOS-CLE-MIL
5 Bob Purkey 1966 13 92 2114.2 1954 1966 24-36 386 276 129 115 .529 510 793 3.79 3.80 103 PIT-CIN-STL
6 Robin Roberts 1966 45 305 4688.2 1948 1966 21-39 676 609 286 245 .539 902 2357 3.41 3.50 113 PHI-BAL-HOU-CHC
7 Ned Garver 1961 18 153 2477.1 1948 1961 22-35 402 330 129 157 .451 881 881 3.73 4.02 112 SLB-DET-KCA-LAA
8 Bob Rush 1960 16 118 2410.2 1948 1960 22-34 417 321 127 152 .455 789 1244 3.65 3.41 110 CHC-MLN-CHW
9 Johnny Sain 1955 16 140 2028.2 1946 1955 28-37 372 242 135 109 .553 556 842 3.47 3.64 108 BSN-NYY-KCA
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 3/30/2015.

The lowest shutout percentage of these post-war pitchers is Dick Ellsworth at 10.3% of complete games. Prior to 1946, the pitchers below had the lowest rates, all below 8%, with Vern Kennedy and Jimmy Ring the lowest of the group, both below 6%.

Rk Player Year SHO CG IP From To Age G GS W L W-L% BB SO ERA FIP ERA+ Tm
1 Vern Kennedy 1945 7 127 2025.2 1934 1945 27-38 344 263 104 132 .441 1049 691 4.67 4.60 95 CHW-DET-SLB-WSH-CLE-PHI-CIN
2 Willis Hudlin 1944 11 155 2613.1 1926 1944 20-38 491 328 158 156 .503 846 677 4.41 4.16 102 CLE-NYG-WSH-SLB
3 Ted Lyons 1942 27 351 4118.1 1923 1942 22-41 589 479 259 226 .534 1112 1063 3.68 4.02 118 CHW
4 Wes Ferrell 1941 17 227 2623.0 1927 1941 19-33 374 323 193 128 .601 1040 985 4.04 4.23 116 CLE-BOS-WSH-NYY-BRO-BSN
5 Earl Whitehill 1939 16 226 3564.2 1923 1939 24-40 541 473 218 185 .541 1431 1350 4.36 4.29 100 DET-WSH-CLE-CHC
6 Milt Gaston 1934 10 128 2105.0 1924 1934 28-38 355 269 97 164 .372 836 615 4.55 4.43 96 NYY-SLB-WSH-BOS-CHW
7 Jimmy Ring 1928 9 154 2357.1 1917 1928 22-33 389 294 118 149 .442 953 833 4.13 3.99 96 CIN-PHI-NYG-STL
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 3/30/2015.

With modern pitcher usage, complete games have become almost as unusual as shutouts. Thus, recording a complete game without recording a shutout usually means allowing one or two early runs and then shutting a team down. Doing those things in reverse will most times result in a reliever being summoned. The lowest shutout rate among starting pitchers with 2000 IP over the past 25 years (since 1990) belongs to Andy Pettitte at 15.4%, with only these players below 25%.

Rk Player Year SHO CG IP From To Age G GS W L W-L% BB SO ERA FIP ERA+ Tm
1 Andy Pettitte 2013 4 26 3316.0 1995 2013 23-41 531 521 256 153 .626 1031 2448 3.85 3.74 117 NYY-HOU
2 Livan Hernandez 2012 9 50 3189.0 1996 2012 21-37 519 474 178 177 .501 1066 1976 4.44 4.40 95 FLA-SFG-MON-WSN-ARI-MIN-COL-NYM-MIL-ATL
3 Tim Wakefield 2011 6 33 3226.1 1992 2011 25-44 627 463 200 180 .526 1205 2156 4.41 4.72 105 PIT-BOS
4 Jon Lieber 2008 5 25 2198.0 1994 2008 24-38 401 327 131 124 .514 422 1553 4.27 4.02 103 PIT-CHC-NYY-PHI
5 Curt Schilling 2007 20 83 3237.2 1990 2007 23-40 560 431 216 142 .603 698 3106 3.42 3.21 129 BAL-HOU-PHI-ARI-BOS
6 David Wells 2007 12 54 3259.0 1990 2007 27-44 547 487 225 145 .608 648 2035 4.17 4.03 108 TOR-DET-CIN-BAL-NYY-CHW-SDP-BOS-LAD
7 Woody Williams 2007 2 10 2216.1 1993 2007 26-40 424 330 132 116 .532 711 1480 4.19 4.63 103 TOR-SDP-STL-HOU
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 3/30/2015.

Another indicator of modern pitcher usage is the start not completed despite allowing zero runs. Those games were once almost non-existent but now have become much more common than shutouts. Among pitchers with 15 career shutouts since 1914, there are 51 who recorded a shutout in every 7-inning start allowing zero runs, the most recent being Bob Gibson who did so 56 times. Conversely, Roy Halladay, the most prolific complete game pitcher of the recent past, did so less than half the time, recording 20 shutouts and 23 other 7-inning starts allowing zero runs. The lowest rate of the 15 shutout group belongs to probably the most celebrated recent pitcher, Pedro Martinez, who posted 17 shutouts but 40 other 7-inning starts allowing zero runs.

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Paul E
Paul E
9 years ago

Doug,
Not for anything, and totally going tangential here, but how about Jim Clancy’s 40 games started in 1982 has not been surpassed since? Charlie Hough matched him in 1987, but no one has made more starts in a season.

Does this have anything to do with victories in one season and defeats in another?

Joseph
Joseph
9 years ago

This is a tough one. I’ve spent at least an hour looking at the stats and running searches on the play index and I don’t even have a guess.

Are you being sneaky here? Is it a pitching accomplishment or a hitting accomplishment?

Joseph
Joseph
9 years ago

After spending even more time on this, when I should have been painting the bathroom, I’m thinking it has something to do with a minimum number of innings pitched in a career, but having a low number of something like wild pitches or balks or something.

Back to painting.

Richard Chester
Richard Chester
9 years ago
Reply to  Doug

I would presume that 2000 IP is the minimum.

Doug
Doug
9 years ago

That is correct.

Joseph
Joseph
9 years ago

There are 125 players pre 1946 who had IP > 2000 and 77 accomplished this mystery feat.

There are over 200 players after 1946 with IP > 2000 and only eight have accomplished this.

I’m thinking that this has something to do with the changes in the way pitchers are used.

I keep looking at this and can’t come up with anything.

Jim
Jim
9 years ago

It’s not the answer, but Bartolo Colon is the only pitcher with 2000 IP who has allowed 100% of his inherited runners to score. The most recent of his six career relief appearances is the only time he’s entered a game in the middle of an inning, and he allowed the one runner to score. If he had kept the runner from scoring and the rest of the game had gone the same way it did, Mariano Rivera would have one more save and one less win.

PaulE
PaulE
9 years ago

I guess the next question is, “Does Andy Pettitte get to Cooperstown with 4 (four) career shutouts”?

Doug
Doug
9 years ago
Reply to  PaulE

And, one CG (in his career finale) in his last 170 starts (almost as many starts as Max Scherzer had before his first CG).

no statistician but
no statistician but
9 years ago
Reply to  Doug

One of the consequences of this shift in strategy is the lengthening of games. In fact, it would be interesting to see some stats on the average delay caused by a pitching change, as opposed to the time lost due to the antics of batters stepping out of the box. The latter is under fire now, but I’d guess the former is far more destructive to the flow of the game and hence contributes far more to the loss of interest in baseball to some of the public.

Artie Z.
Artie Z.
9 years ago

It is interesting to compare Bob Gibson with Tim Hudson. Both had 56 games of 7+ IP with 0 runs allowed. As Doug mentions, all of Gibby’s games were shutouts. Obviously the Cardinals went 56-0. Hudson, however, only had 13 shutouts among his 56 games, so he was replaced 43 times. In 13 of those 43 non-shutout games Hudson’s team allowed runs after he left, and they went 12-1 (so overall, 55-1 in Hudson’s 56 games). In that one loss Wickman gave up 3 runs in the 9th. Now, maybe that’s a game where Hudson should have been left in… Read more »

Richard Chester
Richard Chester
9 years ago
Reply to  Doug

Per the gregstoll win expectancy calculator after 7 innings:

Visitors ahead by 1 run, win expectancy = .753.
Home team ahead by 1 run, win expectancy = .774.
Visitors ahead by 2 runs,win expectancy = .872.
Home team ahead by 2 runs, win expectancy = .880.

3 runs or more ahead either team has a .942+ chance of winning.

BryanM
BryanM
9 years ago
Reply to  Artie Z.

Bob Gibson was by reputation a fierce competitor who was no respecter of persons. It is possible that it took a certain amount of courage to walk out to the mound when Gibson was pitching a shutout and ask for the ball….

Steven
Steven
9 years ago
Reply to  BryanM

Maybe someone more computer-savvy than I can verify the exact dates, but I think Gibson had a streak of two years without being taken out of a game while pitching, before the opposition made three outs (1967-69?).

BryanM
BryanM
9 years ago

Adam Wainwright pitched 6 scoreless innings on opening day, then was taken out; didn’t even make the seven inning cutoff above. Taking out your presumed ace in front of an opening day crowd without an obvious reason would have been bad baseball business in the old days, when the big crowd would have been presumed to pay good money in part to see him pitch. We should remember that fan expectations constrain decisions even now – pushing against those constraints has always marked the great managers