Jose Bautista is having a really sloooow start

Through 20 games, Jose Bautista is not reminding anyone of the player who terrorized AL pitchers the past two seasons. I was wondering whether any other players coming off a season like Bautista’s had had such a slow start the following year. And, if they did, was that slow start a harbinger of a really down year?

Let’s find out.

Here’s the list of players with a season like Bautista’s in 2011 – 502 PA, .300 BA, .600 SLG, 125 BB, and an OPS+ of 200 or less.

Rk Player Year BA SLG BB OPS+ PA Age Tm HR RBI SO OBP OPS Pos
1 Jose Bautista 2011 .302 .608 132 181 655 30 TOR 43 103 111 .447 1.056 *95/D
2 Todd Helton 2004 .347 .620 127 165 683 30 COL 32 96 72 .469 1.088 *3
3 Jason Giambi 2001 .342 .660 129 198 671 30 OAK 38 120 83 .477 1.137 *3D
4 Jason Giambi 2000 .333 .647 137 187 664 29 OAK 43 137 96 .476 1.123 *3D
5 Chipper Jones 1999 .319 .633 126 168 701 27 ATL 45 110 94 .441 1.074 *5/6
6 Barry Bonds 1998 .303 .609 130 178 697 33 SFG 37 122 92 .438 1.047 *7
7 Gary Sheffield 1996 .314 .624 142 189 677 27 FLA 42 120 66 .465 1.090 *9
8 Barry Bonds 1996 .308 .615 151 188 675 31 SFG 42 129 76 .461 1.076 *7/8
9 Frank Thomas 1995 .308 .606 136 179 647 27 CHW 40 111 74 .454 1.061 *3D
10 Ralph Kiner 1951 .309 .627 137 185 670 28 PIT 42 109 57 .452 1.079 *73
11 Ted Williams 1949 .343 .650 162 191 730 30 BOS 43 159 48 .490 1.141 *7
12 Ted Williams 1948 .369 .615 126 189 638 29 BOS 25 127 41 .497 1.112 *7
13 Lou Gehrig 1937 .351 .643 127 176 700 34 NYY 37 159 49 .473 1.116 *3
14 Lou Gehrig 1936 .354 .696 130 190 719 33 NYY 49 152 46 .478 1.174 *3
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 4/28/2012.

And, here’s how these players fared in their teams’ first 20 games of the following season.

Rk Year Player   PA AB H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS SH SF IBB HBP GDP
1 2012 Jose Bautista Ind. Games 91 71 13 1 0 3 9 16 11 .183 .341 .324 .665 0 2 2 2 3
2 2005 Todd Helton Ind. Games 88 72 19 5 0 1 9 15 6 .264 .398 .375 .773 0 0 2 1 3
3 2002 Jason Giambi Ind. Games 89 76 20 3 0 4 10 10 21 .263 .371 .461 .831 0 0 1 3 5
4 2001 Jason Giambi Ind. Games 88 66 27 7 0 6 17 20 11 .409 .557 .788 1.345 0 0 6 2 0
5 2000 Chipper Jones Ind. Games 84 75 22 4 0 4 14 8 5 .293 .357 .507 .864 0 1 2 0 3
6 1999 Barry Bonds Ind. Games 52 41 15 6 0 4 12 11 4 .366 .500 .805 1.305 0 0 3 0 2
7 1997 Gary Sheffield Ind. Games 86 59 15 4 0 3 6 22 12 .254 .477 .475 .951 0 1 3 4 1
8 1997 Barry Bonds Ind. Games 84 57 14 0 2 2 10 23 6 .246 .464 .421 .885 0 2 5 2 0
9 1996 Frank Thomas Ind. Games 97 79 30 6 0 7 19 16 11 .380 .474 .722 1.196 0 2 4 0 4
10 1952 Ralph Kiner Ind. Games 85 68 17 4 0 2 8 16 10 .250 .400 .397 .797 0 0 1 1 1
11 1950 Ted Williams Ind. Games 62 48 17 2 0 7 21 14 3 .354 .500 .833 1.333 0 0 0 0 3
12 1949 Ted Williams Ind. Games 97 76 24 2 0 7 26 20 10 .316 .464 .618 1.082 0 0 2 1 4
13 1938 Lou Gehrig Ind. Games 87 68 15 5 1 2 9 17 11 .221 .391 .412 .803 0 0 0 2  
14 1937 Lou Gehrig Ind. Games 89 80 21 8 0 1 12 9 9 .263 .337 .400 .737 0 0 0 0  
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 4/28/2012.

So, there’s a mix of starts here, but Bautista’s certainly looks to be the worst. The colors are rough indicators of cold (blue), warm (orange) and hot (red) starts.

For full year totals for that following season, here’s what we have.

Rk Player Year OPS+ Age Tm G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS Pos
2 Todd Helton 2005 144 31 COL 144 626 509 92 163 45 2 20 79 106 80 .320 .445 .534 .979 *3
3 Jason Giambi 2002 172 31 NYY 155 689 560 120 176 34 1 41 122 109 112 .314 .435 .598 1.034 *3D
4 Jason Giambi 2001 198 30 OAK 154 671 520 109 178 47 2 38 120 129 83 .342 .477 .660 1.137 *3D
5 Chipper Jones 2000 141 28 ATL 156 686 579 118 180 38 1 36 111 95 64 .311 .404 .566 .970 *5/6
6 Barry Bonds 1999 155 34 SFG 102 434 355 91 93 20 2 34 83 73 62 .262 .389 .617 1.006 *7/D
7 Gary Sheffield 1997 134 28 FLA 135 582 444 86 111 22 1 21 71 121 79 .250 .424 .446 .870 *9/D
8 Barry Bonds 1997 170 32 SFG 159 690 532 123 155 26 5 40 101 145 87 .291 .446 .585 1.031 *7
9 Frank Thomas 1996 178 28 CHW 141 649 527 110 184 26 0 40 134 109 70 .349 .459 .626 1.085 *3
10 Ralph Kiner 1952 141 29 PIT 149 633 516 90 126 17 2 37 87 110 77 .244 .384 .500 .884 *7
11 Ted Williams 1950 167 31 BOS 89 416 334 82 106 24 1 28 97 82 21 .317 .452 .647 1.099 *7
12 Ted Williams 1949 191 30 BOS 155 730 566 150 194 39 3 43 159 162 48 .343 .490 .650 1.141 *7
13 Lou Gehrig 1938 132 35 NYY 157 689 576 115 170 32 6 29 114 107 75 .295 .410 .523 .932 *3
14 Lou Gehrig 1937 176 34 NYY 157 700 569 138 200 37 9 37 159 127 49 .351 .473 .643 1.116 *3
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 4/30/2012.

So, no really bad seasons here. However, among those players with the coldest starts, only Gehrig in 1937 turned in a season over 144 OPS+. Conversely, among players with warm or hot starts, only Chipper Jones (2000) and Gary Sheffield (1997) turned in a season under 144 OPS+.

Among players with a hot start, all had outstanding seasons, particularly Giambi (2001) and Williams (1949) with league-leading totals in multiple offensive categories. That Williams season is the only time a player has had 150 or more runs, walks and RBIs. Bonds (1999) and Williams (1950) in this group were both slowed by injury but still turned in OPS+ scores higher than all of the players with cold starts. 

Based on past experience, then, it would seem Bautista will probably have a good season, though probably not as dominating as his past two. Differing opinions, anyone?

 

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joeyogi
joeyogi
12 years ago

doug

fantastic post. love your site and work.

thanks

Hartvig
Hartvig
12 years ago

I wrote a long comment about this on a previous post about Bautista & Pujols and then erased it because I was at least partially contradicting myself in it. Looking at Bautista’s numbers, it seems to me that beginning in the second half of last year that teams are really starting to pitch around him- his walks are about the same or a little higher but his strike outs are up quite a bit and his power numbers are down. I’m guessing that as long as all Toronto has to hit behind him are Lind and Encarnacion that no one… Read more »

John Autin
Editor
12 years ago

I’ve already expressed (in a reply to Neil L.) my confidence that Bautista will produce. He’s not striking out, he’s taking his walks. The main factor in his numbers is a .179 BAbip, which is about 100 points below his prior career average.

There might be some subtler problem, but without having seen him yet, I wouldn’t know.

Doug, I’m curious about one of the criteria for your comparison group. Why did you cap the OPS+ at 200?

MikeD
MikeD
12 years ago

The good news for Bautista is everyone on that list went on to excellent hitting seasons despite their slow starts. Helton, Kiner and Gehrig(’38) had the next lowest OPS’s after Bautista. I was thinking Lou Gehrig’s 1938 season was a good match in that he also had a very low BA in April (absurdly low for him at .221), but was still generating walks. Yet perhaps that’s not the most comforting comparison as I go off on a bit of a tangent. But for a few PAs in 1939, Gehrig’s last full season in the majors was 1938. Although Gehrig… Read more »

Mike L
Mike L
12 years ago
Reply to  MikeD

Mike D, I wonder if Gehrig would have been able to stay out of the war in some capacity. His parents were German immigrants, and that might have been dicey, even given his advanced age. More likely the Army would have have found some role for him.

RetroRob
RetroRob
12 years ago
Reply to  Mike L

Mike L, regarding Gehrig, WWII and his German ancestry, you bring up a good point and it was one I wanted to touch on, but my posting was already way too long, especially considering I started out to write about Bautista! It’s an interesting question, but one which is basically impossible to answer without getting into the mind and soul of Lou Gehrig, because I don’t think there was a great chance of him being drafted initially. He would have had to made the decision to enlist at the age of 38. While some may not be aware of this,… Read more »

MikeD
MikeD
12 years ago
Reply to  RetroRob

…MikeD. Should have updated my log in.

Lawrence Azrin
Lawrence Azrin
12 years ago
Reply to  MikeD

From what I remember reading about Gehrig’s 1938, he struggled in spring training and in April (splits of .116/.333/.186), then got back to form the rest of the year. Someone has hypothesized that his body was subconciously adjusting to the changes brought on by the very beginning of ALS.

As for WWII, there’s no guarantee that he would’ve still been a productive regular at 38/39.. There’s been plenty of great players almost as good as him, whose careers as regulars ended at 35/36.

MikeD
MikeD
12 years ago
Reply to  Lawrence Azrin

Lawrence, that’s quite possible. I have also read that his fatigue hit him at such levels in 1938 that it was originally believed that he had a gall bladder infection. I read a bit more on his 1938 season this evening and it’s a little clearer to me that he was being impacted that year by ALS, but not enough to prevent him from playing. A non athlete might not have noticed any signs, but as a professional athlete he was pushing his body harder than most, probably why he was having some early fatigue problems since ALS impacts the… Read more »

bstar
bstar
12 years ago

It is always fun to wonder where Lou Gehrig would have ended up on the all-time HR list, although I think him exceeding Babe Ruth’s 714 total would have been a very tough task indeed. Let’s assume that, disease-free, Gehrig hit as many HR in his age-35 season as he did in his age-34 year(37), eight more than his actual 29 total in ’38. That would have given him 501 HR thru age 35, but there have been twelve other players in history to exceed that total by that age, with Alex Rodriguez at 629 the clear leader here. Babe… Read more »

MikeD
MikeD
12 years ago
Reply to  bstar

Agreed with you on the HRs. He would have had to maintain the high HR pace. Could he have averaged 32 HRs a year through age 40? Maybe, but even that “only” takes him to Willie Mays territory, and then he’d have to play another couple seasons and hit another 55 HRs to break it. It doesn’t seem likely unless he could have added in a couple more upper-40s HR seasons like he had in ’34 and ’36, before beginning a more gradual decline. Odds are against it, but Gehrig wasn’t a normal baseball player up until ALS, which is… Read more »

Hartvig
Hartvig
12 years ago
Reply to  MikeD

Another factor that would have been working against him would have been the ball used during the war. Between 1942 and 1945 only 3 guys hit as many as 30 home runs and another 20 guys hit as many as 20- and the majority of those hit between 20 and 22. It’s hard to imagine even a healthy 40 year old Lou Gehrig hitting more than guys like Johnny Mize or Mel Ott.

Joseph
Joseph
12 years ago

The difference between most of the players on the list and Bautista is that Bautista has had 1.5 seasons of really outstanding baseball, the way I see it. Last year he faded badly in the second half of the season: 12 HR’s, a .257 average, and .896 OPS compared to 31 HR’s, .334, and 1.170. In 2010 he came out of 6 years where he average an OPS+ of about 91. He’s going to be one of those stories about having a brief flash of greatness and then burned out. He’s already 31–many of the greats have started to slow… Read more »

Doug
Doug
12 years ago

Joseph,

I have a hunch you may be right about Bautista. Players with late peaks don’t tend to sustain them for long (if I’m remembering correctly a study Bill James did on age and performance levels).

Neil L.
Neil L.
12 years ago

Joseph, as an observer in the Toronto market, my worst fear is that you are right about Jose Bautista and his celestial 1.5 seasons. However, what a 1.5-year run it was, if it is over. And, unlike, Brady Anderson and others, I don’t believe his sudden power surge was substance-fueled. I do disagree with you, respectfully, that his slow start this year and poor second half last year are age-related. His physical conditioning and work out regimen, from all reports, are as good as ever. Jose Bautista’s swing, if you look at video, is as vicious as ever …. he… Read more »