25 thoughts on “Run, Don’t Walk – First Base Ahead”

1. BryanM April 15, 2012 at 6:11 pm

   Is that Gee Walker or Gee Hacker on your list???

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   1. Doug Post authorApril 15, 2012 at 6:20 pm

      Yes, an odd name to appear on the list.

      But, I wouldn’t call Gee Walker a hacker. He had a .294 career BA and his K/BB rate was under 2, which is great considering he walked in only 4.6% of his PAs. He might have really done some damage if he could have balanced his aggressiveness with a bit more selectivity at the plate.

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      1. BryanM April 15, 2012 at 6:30 pm

         Sorry , Doug ,just trying to fall in with the humorous tone, I’m an old guy with no idea how to put one of those smiley thing on to warn you that I’m joking. Gee Walker was no hacker ,although the .294 was mostly compiled in the high-scoring thirties.

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      2. Doug April 15, 2012 at 7:31 pm

         No worries, Bryan.

         To get a happy face, type a colon, followed immediately by a right parenthesis (no spaces in between). A sad face is colon followed by left parenthesis.

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2. BryanM April 15, 2012 at 6:43 pm

   Doug ; another Doug (Flynn, 1985) has the most PA for a non pitcher whose entire season OBP<BA since 1961, a real achievement at first-base avoidance.

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   1. Doug April 15, 2012 at 7:41 pm

      That is something.

      The sac fly that put Flynn’s OBP below his BA came in a tight 2-1 game won by Flynn’s Tigers. But, Flynn still had negative WPA for the game despite a hit and a sac bunt to go with his sac fly. It was the last RBI of Flynn’s career.

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3. Neil L. April 15, 2012 at 8:18 pm

   Maybe moneyball was a second generation push-back against the Rob Picciolo Oakland legacy. 🙂

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4. John Autin April 15, 2012 at 9:12 pm

   On a tangent: Through Saturday’s games, here are the players with no walks and OBP equal to or less than their BA:

   Player # of PAs
   Josh Hamilton 38
   Michael Young 37
   Brennan Boesch 35
   Chris Johnson 34
   Jimmy Rollins 34
   Gaby Sanchez 33
   Jesus Montero 33
   Alex Presley 32
   Nolan Reimold 31
   Giancarlo Stanton 31
   Vernon Wells 30
   Kendrys Morales 30

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5. Timmy Pea April 15, 2012 at 9:41 pm

   Bad timing Doug. JRoll and Pierre both had great games. The Phillies are a fun team to watch.

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   1. John Autin April 15, 2012 at 11:57 pm

      Pierre also got thrown out trying to steal 3rd base with 2 out and 2 on in the 4th inning, with Rollins at bat and the Phils down by a run. That’s not the kind of play we expect from a veteran like Juan D’Vaughn Pierre! (Or a Pony League player, for that matter.)

      Interesting … Last year, Pierre was perfect in 10 steals of 3rd base, but went 17 and 17 in steals of 2nd.

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      1. Timmy Pea April 16, 2012 at 8:42 am

         That’s terrible judgement no doubt.

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         1. Neil L. April 16, 2012 at 10:08 pm

            Yeah, Timmy Pea, eclipsed only by Brett (I’m just being to be aggressive) Lawrie trying to steal home in Saturday’s Toronto loss to the Orioles with the score tied, the bases loaded, two out and Jose Bautists at the plate.

            Granted Bautista had an 0-2 count at the time, but really ????

            You know I had to find somewhere to post this. 🙂

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            1. John Autin April 16, 2012 at 10:57 pm

               Wow, Neil, that’s one of the dumbest plays I’ve ever heard of. Besides who was at bat and the fact that the bases were loaded and a RHP on the mound, the Blue Jays were already ahead by a run.

               And while Lawrie has good speed, I don’t think he’s a burner.

               I hope the young man received corrective instruction from his elders.
            2. Neil L. April 16, 2012 at 11:55 pm

               JA, @16, yes, look at the box.

               Omar Vizquel talked to Brett Lawrie in the dugout even before John Farrell had a chance to say anything.
6. Max April 16, 2012 at 3:48 pm

   Always fun explaining to people how your OBP can be lower than your BA. My brother, who is a pretty smart guy, couldn’t believe that was possible. It’s all in the magic of SF. Good lists – fun stuff.

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   1. kds April 16, 2012 at 9:52 pm

      Like most baseball stats OBP is defined arbitrarily and less than totally
      logically. SF count in the denominator, but SH do not. RoE’s are counted as outs even though base has been reached safely. Certain fielder’s choice plays where everybody is safe don’t count, because they counted as SH, even though the batter reached. I think it would make sense to measure how often the batter safely reached base in all his PA. (With no base runners being forced out.) But they seem to think it’s more important to include the scorers opinion on what “should” have happened, than to show what actually did happen. End of rant. We now return you to your regularly scheduled game, as arbitrary as it may be.

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      1. John Autin April 16, 2012 at 10:47 pm

         I think it makes sense to count SF but not SH in the denominator for OBP. With most SH, it’s clear that the batter is voluntarily giving up his chance to hit safely (usually under manager’s orders). With SF, the question of intent is much more opaque.

         What I find illogical is that SF are not counted as AB. That hasn’t always been the case; in fact, there were periods when the batter was charged with an AB and not credited with an RBI.

         The absurdity of the SF-not-an-AB rule can be seen in the 9th inning when a team is behind by more than one run. A scoring fly ball in that situation is worthless, and obviously no hitter would be trying to give himself up with a routine fly to bring in the run. If a batter squared around and bunted in the 9th when the runner(s) advanced do not represent the tying or go-ahead run, proper scoring would not credit a SH. (See Rule 10.08(a) Comment.)
         http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/official_info/official_rules/official_scorer_10.jsp

         I would not object to counting reached on error as a “time on base” for OBP purposes, although it would break from over a century of tradition.

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         1. Richard Chester April 16, 2012 at 10:59 pm

            If HBP counts as a TOB so should ROE. They are each a result of a misplay by the defensive team, what’s the difference what you call it.

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            1. John Autin April 16, 2012 at 11:26 pm

               But Richard, couldn’t that line of reasoning end in treating anything good for the hitter as the result of a “misplay” by the defensive team?

               Tonight I watched Atlanta’s Tommy Hanson throw 5 straight curveballs to Ike Davis with 2 on and 2 out in a tie game. The 5th one hung a bit, and Davis crushed it, and there’s your ballgame. Davis has been vulnerable to breaking balls all year, but 5 in a row, from a RHP to a LHB? That was clearly a mistake by Hanson and/or Brian McCann, in pitch selection and execution.

               HBP have more to do with the batter than you’ve implied, otherwise we’d hardly remember Ron Hunt. Among active hitters with 3,000 to 5,000 PAs, the career HBP totals range from Chase Utley’s 139 all the way down to Coco Crisp’s 5.

               The same logic was applied to walks once upon a time; that’s why the walk wasn’t included in the batter’s line in Chadwick’s original box score — it was considered a pitcher’s mistake, not a batter’s accomplishment. Nowadays we realize that, in general, batters actually have more impact on walks than pitchers, because there’s a much wider range of walk rates among batters than among pitchers.
            2. bstar April 17, 2012 at 5:56 am

               Good pickup on Hanson’s overuse of his curveball, John. He’s had problems before over-relying on it and losing confidence in his fastball. It happened for a good part of 2010, but he eventually righted himself.
7. Steven April 17, 2012 at 1:35 am

   Ken Reitz never walked. He couldn’t run very fast, either.

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   1. Doug Post authorApril 17, 2012 at 1:52 am

      Indeed, and even, apparently, as young as 23 with a league leading 25 GIDP. For his career, Reitz stole 10 bases and was caught 14 times.

      Reitz had 7 straight seasons with walk totals between 19 and 25. His other 4 years total to about one-and-a-half full seasons, with a walk total of 26. At least, he was consistent.

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8. Steven April 17, 2012 at 2:14 am

   Reitz appeared in old-timers games in St. Louis as early as 1983. He also played for the San Jose “Bad News” Bees in 1986.

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9. Mike L April 17, 2012 at 9:59 am

   Hal Lanier just missed the list for more GIDP than walks (135/136). Lanier’s offensive totals are a monument to inadequacy. Ten years, 1196 games, mostly as a regular, 49 OPS+. The maximum number of EBH he had in any one year was 24 (when he “peaked” at 41 R’s as well). But it does show you that in the low run era he played in, no one really seemed to care.

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   1. Doug Post authorApril 17, 2012 at 12:57 pm

      Lanier also figured prominently in an earlier post about players with propensity for making lots of outs.

      http://www.highheatstats.com/2012/03/out-machine-redux-its-not-just-rollins-and-pierre/#more-1774

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