Lots of hits, but where are the RBI?

Thanks to regular poster Richard Chester for contributing this article and analysis. Richard is a long-time Yankees follower with many stories to tell of days at the Stadium.

Derek Jeter has been piling on the hits this year and attention has been focused on his climb up the ladder of the lifetime hits leader board. Not often observed is his relatively low RBI total, even for a leadoff hitter. As of the date of this writing, 8/2/2012, he is projected to accumulate  213 hits and 50 RBIs. This would out him into a not-so-desirable club of players with 200 or more hits and no more than 50 RBIs.

After the jump, I’ll look some more at this unusual “club”.

So, here are the club members, ordered by RBI.

Rk Player RBI H XBH XBH% Year Tm PA AB R 2B 3B HR BB BA LOI LOI% ROB ROB%
1 Lloyd Waner 27 223 25 11.2% 1927 PIT 683 629 133 17 6 2 37 .355
2 Richie Ashburn 33 215 39 18.1% 1958 PHI 725 615 98 24 13 2 97 .350 293 42.9% 299 10.4%
3 Johnny Pesky 39 207 35 16.9% 1947 BOS 719 638 106 27 8 0 72 .324
4 Juan Pierre 40 204 48 23.5% 2006 CHC 750 699 87 32 13 3 32 .292 303 42.1% 341 10.9%
5 Juan Pierre 41 204 36 17.6% 2003 FLA 747 668 100 28 7 1 55 .305 286 38.1% 326 12.3%
6 Ichiro Suzuki 42 213 33 21.1% 2008 SEA 749 686 103 20 7 6 51 .310 291 39.0% 346 10.4%
7 Carson Bigbee 42 204 43 15.5% 1921 PIT 683 632 100 23 17 3 41 .323
8 Ichiro Suzuki 43 214 39 28.8% 2010 SEA 732 680 74 30 3 6 45 .315 284 41.6% 311 11.9%
9 Snuffy Stirnweiss 43 205 59 18.2% 1944 NYY 723 643 125 35 16 8 73 .319
10 Willie Keeler 43 202 32 15.8% 1901 BRO 645 595 123 18 12 2 21 .339
11 Ralph Garr 44 219 39 17.8% 1971 ATL 693 639 101 24 6 9 30 .343 142 22.0% inc
12 Bob Dillinger 44 207 46 22.2% 1948 SLB 722 644 110 34 10 2 65 .321
13 Cesar Tovar 45 204 33 16.2% 1971 MIN 718 657 94 29 3 1 45 .311 271 37.5% 347 12.7%
14 Chick Fullis 45 200 38 19.0% 1933 PHI 698 647 91 31 6 1 36 .309
15 Ichiro Suzuki 46 225 46 20.4% 2009 SEA 678 639 88 31 4 11 32 .352 287 41.1% 307 11.4%
16 Curt Flood 46 211 33 15.6% 1964 STL 739 679 97 25 3 5 43 .311 307 45.3% 335 12.2%
17 Doc Cramer 46 202 44 21.8% 1934 PHA 699 649 99 29 9 6 40 .311
18 Matty Alou 47 201 30 14.9% 1970 PIT 718 677 97 21 8 1 30 .297 261 37.3% 330 13.9%
19 Nellie Fox 47 201 34 16.9% 1954 CHW 706 631 111 24 8 2 51 .319 123 17.1% 404 11.1%
20 Matty Alou 48 231 48 20.8% 1969 PIT 746 698 105 41 6 1 42 .331 288 40.8% 313 15.0%
21 Maury Wills 48 208 29 13.9% 1962 LAD 759 695 130 13 10 6 51 .299 322 43.2% 319 13.2%
22 Harvey Kuenn 48 201 39 19.4% 1954 DET 696 656 81 28 6 5 29 .306 258 34.0% 371 11.6%
23 Harvey Kuenn 48 209 42 20.1% 1953 DET 731 679 94 33 7 2 50 .308 278 39.9% 331 13.9%
24 Ichiro Suzuki 49 224 38 17.0% 2006 SEA 752 695 110 20 9 9 49 .322 303 41.5% 341 11.7%
25 Juan Pierre 49 221 37 16.7% 2004 FLA 748 678 100 22 12 3 45 .326 265 35.2% 321 14.3%
26 Mark Grudzielanek 49 201 44 21.9% 1996 MON 696 657 99 34 4 6 26 .306 294 39.3% 319 13.5%
27 Willie Wilson 49 230 46 20.0% 1980 KCR 745 705 133 28 15 3 28 .326 299 43.0% 380 12.1%
28 Pete Rose 49 210 58 27.6% 1968 CIN 692 626 94 42 6 10 56 .335 268 36.0% 303 12.9%

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used

Generated 8/3/2012.

At the top of the list is “club president” Lloyd Waner who somehow managed to drive in all of 27 runs with 223 hits. I have always wondered how Waner could have so few RBIs with so many hits. Data for an analysis are not available for 1927, so I settled on analyzing Richie Ashburn’s 1958 season. As you would suspect, Ashburn’s BA with RISP was low and his XBH were few.  Although his seasonal BA was .350, his BA with RISP was just .273 with 3 doubles and 2 triples. In addition quite a few of his singles failed to score a runner from second. The same reasons most likely apply for Waner’s low RBI title. He had more hits than Ashburn but fewer XBH. I would suspect that Waner came to bat with more men on base than Ashburn because the 1927 Pirates had an OBP of .361 vs. the 1958 Phils with .339.

The LOI and LOI% columns are number and percentage of PAs leading off an inning. ROB and ROB% are seasonal total runners on base and percentage of them driven in. As would be expected most of these players are team leadoff hitters, who are mostly singles hitters and follow the weakest hitters in the line-up. Three players, Fox, Pesky and Garr, were #2 hitters and Cramer split his time in the #1 and #2 spots. While most of these hitters were well into the 30% and 40% range for LOI%, two of the three #2 hitters, Nellie Fox (17.1%) and Ralph Garr (22.0%) compiled a much smaller number of LOI PAs, illustrating quite starkly the difference between batting first and second.

Meager RBI totals are due in part to similarly low totals for extra-base hits. While most of these players have even fewer XBH than RBI, those indicated in red managed an equal or lower numbers of RBI than XBH. Perhaps not coincidentally, of these all but Pete Rose had LOI% above 40%, among players for which LOI data are available.

If you’re wondering about artificial cutoffs like 50 RBI and 200 hits, here are the players since 1920 to accumulate RBI of less than 25% of Hits in qualifying seasons batting .300 with fewer than 200 hits.

Rk  Player Yrs From To Age
1 Luis Castillo 6 1999 2007 23-31 Ind. Seasons
2 Stan Hack 4 1940 1945 30-35 Ind. Seasons
3 Brett Butler 3 1990 1995 33-38 Ind. Seasons
4 Richie Ashburn 3 1950 1955 23-28 Ind. Seasons
5 Fernando Vina 2 1998 2000 29-31 Ind. Seasons
6 Tony Gwynn 2 1985 1992 25-32 Ind. Seasons
7 Damaso Garcia 2 1982 1983 25-26 Ind. Seasons
8 Willie Wilson 2 1981 1982 25-26 Ind. Seasons
9 Lou Brock 2 1972 1974 33-35 Ind. Seasons
10 Pete Rose 2 1971 1981 30-40 Ind. Seasons
11 Matty Alou 2 1966 1967 27-28 Ind. Seasons
12 Maury Wills 2 1963 1967 30-34 Ind. Seasons
13 Johnny Cooney 2 1940 1941 39-40 Ind. Seasons
14 Lloyd Waner 2 1932 1936 26-30 Ind. Seasons
 51 more players. Most recent:
15 Jose Reyes 1 2011 2011 28-28 Ind. Seasons

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used

Generated 8/3/2012.

The usual suspects with a few new names (but not Derek Jeter’s). Actually, Jeter has never come particularly close to that 25% cutoff. His lowest rate was 31.1% in 2009, on 66 RBI from 212 hits. So, how does this season compare to the rest of his career?

Derek Jeter RBI Hits Rate AVG SLG
1995-99 341 807 42.3% 0.318 0.465
2000-03 274 739 37.1% 0.317 0.458
2004-07 318 810 39.3% 0.317 0.464
2008-11 263 732 35.9% 0.300 0.408
2012 32 137 23.4% 0.316 0.417

Pretty consistent until the past couple of seasons when his batting and slugging inevitably started to slide with age. As far as RBIs go, this season is looking like a blip rather than the progression of an already evident trend. Probable reason for the blip is that, so far this season, men have been on base for only 33.9% of Derek’s PAs, versus his career mark of 41.4%.

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Andy
Admin
11 years ago

That would out him, indeed.

MikeD
MikeD
11 years ago

RBI’s are a function of opportunity, and that works in both directions. The last line answered my question. Had his opportunities decreased? I suspect not having Brett Gardner batting in “front” of him as the 9th-place hitter is having some impact, coupled by his decreasing extra-base power as he ages.

Ed
Ed
11 years ago
Reply to  MikeD

Looking at how he’s hitting with RISP, there might be some truth to what you’re saying. Last year, he had 157 PAs with runners in scoring position and produced 55 RBIs in such situations (.35 RBIs/PA). This year he has 94 PAs with runners in scoring position but they’ve only produced 23 RBIs (.24 RBIs/PA). His BA is slightly higher is such situations this year compared to last (.299 vs. .259) though his slugging percentage is essentially the same (.364 vs. .363). What those numbers say to me is that the runners on base when Jeter hits are less likely… Read more »

Richard Chester
Richard Chester
11 years ago
Reply to  Ed

And speed-wise Russell Martin and Chris Stewart are not exactly Brett Gardner.

MikeD
MikeD
11 years ago

You might be correct on that one. I just saw a replay of Jeter driving in Stewart in today’s game, and while it was a clean single over the SS’s head to left-center with not a fielder initially in site, Stewart barely beat the throw to home plate to score.

Joseph
Joseph
11 years ago
Reply to  Ed

BA of .299 vs. .259 is only slightly lower? Please. What about the issue of runners on base, not just scoring position? Through yesterday, August 31, Jeter has had about 80 fewer runners on base as compared to the league average this year. If he got an RBI in only 20% of those situations, he would be at 61 RBI’s right now. Right in line with his typical season. Last year, in about the same number of plate appearances he has right now, he had about 65 more runners on base. If he got an RBI in only 20% of… Read more »

Ed
Ed
11 years ago

I really wish we had more splits on that 1927 Lloyd Waner season. Sure it’s partially because he mostly batted leadoff but there had to be more to it than that. One of the few splits we have is batting order position; he actually did worse batting second…he had 61 PAs and drove in 0 runs. The Pirates led the NL in runs scored with 817 so it wasn’t a function of being on a bad offense. Just weird.

birtelcom
Editor
11 years ago
Reply to  Ed

Retrosheet (the amazing organization that provides the raw data for b-ref’s historical stats) now has play-by-play data available for 1927 — the only season for which Retrosheet has play-by-play data before 1948. That does mean you can get split data for Waner’s 1927 here: http://www.retrosheet.org/boxesetc/1927/Jwanel1010011927.htm Those splits show Lloyd with 455 PAs with no men on and 220 PAs with men on base (there are a few missing PAs in the splits), including 114 PAs with runners in scoring position. The numbers show Waner’s OPS with no men on was .892, while his OPS with men on base was .646… Read more »

Richard Chester
Richard Chester
11 years ago
Reply to  birtelcom

birtelcom: Thanks for the splits. I will be busy for the next several hours so I will take a closer look later today. Quickly I see that he batted only.275 with RISP. Also he is credited with 29 RBI.

birtelcom
Editor
11 years ago

If you look at Retrosheet’s “Discrepancy File” for Waner’s 1927 season it shows two discrepancies between the Retrosheet data and MLB’s official record. Both of those discrepancies are instances in which the MLB record failed to give an RBI to Waner, but Retrosheet’s data shows he should have been awarded an RBI. On July 16, in the first game of a doubleheader, Retrosheet’s records show Waner grounded out with a man on third and one out — the runner on third scored. Because the man on third had moved there on an error, that run was registered as unearned for… Read more »

Richard Chester
Richard Chester
11 years ago
Reply to  birtelcom

With men on base he hit .291 with with 57 H in 196 AB. Only 4 of those H were XBH.

In his first 28 games he had 119 PA without an RBI. In his next game he had at least his first two PA without an RBI making it at least 121 PA without an RBI from the start of his career. Checking via PI and box scores I found that Wally Gilbert had at least 120 PA without an RBI to start his career, Sam Fuld had 122 PA and Lou Camilli had 150 PA.

Ed
Ed
11 years ago
Reply to  birtelcom

To be fair, the Pirates #9 hitters hit poorly in 1927, with a .194 BA, .218 OBP, and .253 SLG (.470 OPS). The following year they improved to .246, .286 and .308 (.594 OPS).

MikeD
MikeD
11 years ago
Reply to  birtelcom

Ed @17, I would imagine that would by a key contributing factor to many poor RBI seasons, although I’m still trying to wrap my mind around Luis Castill’s 17 RBI year. I wonder if the DH has had any impact on RBIs by leadoff hitters? My first reaction was leadoff hitters in the DH age would have more RBI opportunities, but then I started wondering if that was true. Perhaps better #8 and #9 hitters might very well drive in runs that the leadoff hitter would normally get, plus pitchers might sacrifice more runners into scoring position for the leadoff… Read more »

Richard Chester
Richard Chester
11 years ago
Reply to  birtelcom

Reply to #18:

Castillo’s BA with men on base was awful. With men on he hit .237 and with RISP he hit .211. His 33 hits with men on included 3 2B and no 3B or HR. He never drove in a runner from 1B. With a runner just on 2nd he was six for 30 with 1 RBI. With no one on he was great, batting .380.

Ed
Ed
11 years ago
Reply to  birtelcom

I remember commenting on Luis Castillo’s 2000 splits on the old BR blog. Unfortunately, since splits aren’t searchable in the Play Index, there’s no way to know how they compare to other batters.

birtelcom
Editor
11 years ago
Reply to  birtelcom

Ed @ #20: Yes, it is frustrating that we can’t search the wonderful collection of b-ref split numbers using PI. You can however do a season search of splits using the Day-By-Day Database at baseballmusings.com. I ran a search there for all hitters with at least 100 PAs with RISP during the 2000 season. Others with dramatic drop-offs that season with runners in scoring position: Todd Hollandsworth, Al Martin, Ron Gant: Castillo 2000 with bases empty: .380 BA, .906 OPS Castillo 2000 with RISP: .211 BA, .511 OPS Hollandsworth 2000 with bases empty: .305 BA, .898 OPS Hollandsworth 2000 with… Read more »

vincent
vincent
11 years ago

You guys are funny. I’ve been hearing how RBI’s are not indicative of a particular batter, and are more situational- unless, I guess, that batter is Derek Jeter. In this instance it’s entirely because he’s overrated, SABR-wise.

brp
brp
11 years ago
Reply to  vincent

That’s not what’s being said here, but I guess analyzing the written word is just as unimportant as analyzing numbers, right?

Steven
Steven
11 years ago

Ironically, Curt Flood led the Cardinals in RBI (83,78) in each of the next two seasons (1965 and 1966).

Drew
Drew
11 years ago

@Vincent

I’m no Jeter fan, but where in this article do you see anything remotely resembling saber-inluenced Jeter-bashing?

Seems he’s become a reliable singles hitter with no pop in his old age. Nothing wrong with that, really.

Ed
Ed
11 years ago
Reply to  Drew

You beat me to it Drew! Not to mention comments 2-4 propose legitimate reasons for the decline in RBIs that are mostly situational and have nothing to do with Jeter.

birtelcom
Editor
11 years ago

In the history of the NL and AL, only two men have had at least 502 PAs while also accumulating more than 10 times as many hits as RBI. Luis Castillo in 2000 (at the peak of the modern high-run-scoring era, no less) had 180 hits and 17 RBI, and Enzo Hernandez in 1971 had 122 hits and 12 RBI.

Ed
Ed
11 years ago
Reply to  birtelcom

Enzo Hernandez was in his third year before he got his first extra base hit with runners in scoring position. As a rookie, he went 18-99 with RISP, with all 18 hits being singles. The next year it was 6-54, again with all singles. Finally in 1973, he went 12-36 with one double. Some of his splits are just comically bad. For example, in 1972, he went 2-27 when leading off a game and had a .212 OPS. The following year, he was 7-55 with a .300 OPS when leading off a game. I could go on but you get… Read more »

Tmckelv
Tmckelv
11 years ago

Watching most of the Yankee games this year, it seems that a huge percentage of Jeter’s hits have come in the first inning (leading off the game). He also seems to have had a lot of infield hits.

Here are his real splits – out of 140 hits:
infield hits vs. outfield hits – 30/110 (30 feels low, I wonder what the definition of an “infield hit” is, maybe I am picturing bleeders as infield hits)
lead-off game hits vs. other hits – 40/100

John Autin
Editor
11 years ago

I’d guess that Waner’s low RBI total in 1927 was also affected by team strategy. They were managed by Donie Bush, who had been a classic dead-ball era leadoff man; in his 4 biggest scoring years, Bush averaged 114 Runs but 33 RBI. There are various signs that the ’27 Pirates ran an old-fashioned, “get ’em on, get ’em over, get ’em in” offense. Their leadoff men batted 51 points above any other team and scored FAR more Runs than any other team (141 to 107), but were next-to-last with 36 RBI. Their #2 men were tied for the lead… Read more »

birtelcom
Editor
11 years ago
Reply to  John Autin

If I’ve done my spreadsheet correctly, of the NL’s highest 14 team batting averages since 1900, six belong to the 1922, 1925, 1927, 1928, 1929 and 1930 Pirates. The Pirates as a team batted between .303 and .309 in all those seasons. Over the full nine-season period from 1922 through 1930, the Pirates as a franchise batted .300 (.300276, to be more precise).

Richard Chester
Richard Chester
11 years ago
Reply to  birtelcom

My spreadsheet showed the same results, six of the highest 14.

no statistician but
no statistician but
11 years ago
Reply to  John Autin

JA:

Others may welcome you back for the game notes. I welcome you back for comments like this one: a great combination of analysis, historical knowledge, stats, and logic. Also succinctness.

A thing I was wondering about: I have an impression, possible wrong, that Little Poison hit a lot of dribbling grounder and soft line drive singles. Don’t know, now, where I got the idea, but runners don’t advance beyond the next base on those types of hits, especially not catchers and pitchers, numbers 8 and 9 in the Pirate batting order.

Richard Chester
Richard Chester
11 years ago
Reply to  John Autin

Thanks for that fine insight John. For the first 15 games Waner was the number 2 hitter, batting .294 but with no XBH or RBI. He was then inserted into the lead-off spot for the rest of the season. Perhaps Donie Bush figured if he was producing 0 RBI let him at least hit in the lead-off spot where he would bat with fewer runners on base. Also perhaps Bush saw an image of himself in Waner, a guy who had few RBI but reached base often and scored often. In the body of my report I mentioned that Ashburn… Read more »