Kyle Gibson’s Up-and-Down Year … Month … Week …

What to make of Kyle Gibson’s pattern of good and bad outings?

Game Scores aren’t a great measure of Gibson’s performance, because he isn’t a strikeout pitcher (which could be a factor in the pattern). But I’ll show that picture, then move on to my main point:

 

Kyle Gibson Game Scores

Out of 24 starts this year, Gibson has allowed:

  • 0 or 1 run 12 timestied for 3rd in MLB, one behind Kershaw and Wainwright.
  • 5 runs or more 9 timesalso tied for 3rd, but in completely different company.
  • 2, 3 or 4 runs just once each.

(For a Minnesota Twin, those 12 excellent starts really stand out. From 2007-13, 135 MLB pitchers had at least 12 such starts in a year — but no Twin had done so since Johan Santana in 2006, and only two had reached 10 such starts.)

Getting back to this season:

  • The 12 others with 11 to 13 starts of 0-1 run have season ERAs from 1.86 to 3.32, median 2.57. Gibson is at 4.13.
  • The nine others with 8 to 11 starts of 5+ runs have season ERAs from 4.24 to 5.99, median 4.99.

And Gibson isn’t just in both groups; he’s at the extreme end of each. For the good games only, his 0.44 ERA is 2nd-best of that group (median 0.68); his eight scoreless starts stand alone at #2, trailing only Wainwright. For the bad games only, Gibson’s 12.29 ERA is the worst of the group (median 10.20).

Measuring the groups’ degree of crossover:

  • The other 12 in the “good” group average 2.6 of the “bad” starts, led by Tyson Ross’s five.
  • The other nine in the “bad” group average 4.3 of the “good” starts, led by Drew Hutchison’s eight.

For a deeper perspective … At these rates and with about seven starts left, Gibson would finish with 15 or 16 starts of 0-1 runs, and 11 or 12 starts of 5+ runs. In the past 10 years, no one reached both 15 of 0-1 and 11 of 5+:

  • None with at least 15 at 0-1 runs had more than nine at 5+ (King Felix, 2012, 3.06 ERA).
  • None with at least 10 at 5+ runs had more than 14 at 0-1 (Mark Buehrle, 2005, 3.12 ERA, and Carlos Zambrano, 2007, 3.95 ERA).
  • The 23 pitchers with 15 or 16 starts at 0-1 runs had season ERAs ranging from 1.83 to 3.48, with a 2.79 median and 2.71 average. Again, Gibson’s ERA is 4.13.

Compiling these data for large groups of years would be too tedious, but we can get a similar gauge by using the Split Finder for ERA in wins and losses.

Gibson’s ERA is 1.07 in 11 wins, 11.84 in 9 losses. If I’ve done my work right, that 11.1 ratio of Loss ERA to Win ERA would be the second-highest since 1914 of any pitcher with at least 8 starts won and 8 starts lost. The seven with ratios of 10 or higher:

  • 12.0 — Tom Cheney, 1963 — wins 0.51 ERA, losses 6.10 … season 8-9, 2.71 in 136 IP (21 GS, 2 GR)
  • 11.1 — Kyle Gibson, 2014 — wins 1.07 ERA, losses 11.84 … season 11-9, 4.13 in 139 IP (24 GS)
  • 11.1 — Omar Daal, 2002 — wins 1.06 ERA, losses 11.81 … season 11-9, 3.90 in 161 IP (23 GS, 16 GR)
  • 11.0 — Sam McDowell, 1966 — wins 0.59 ERA, losses 6.47 … season 9-8, 2.87 in 194 IP (28 GS, 7 GR)
  • 11.0 — Rube Foster,* 1914 — wins 0.36 ERA, losses 3.95 … season 14-8, 1.70 in 212 IP (27 GS, 5 GR)
  • 10.3 — Rudy May, 1972 — wins 0.79 ERA, losses 8.12 … season 12-11, 2.94 in 205 IP (30 GS, 5 GR)
  • 10.1 — Mike Garcia, 1956 — wins 0.80 ERA, losses 8.05 … season 11-12, 3.78 in 198 IP (30 GS, 5 GR)
* Not to be confused with the Negro Leagues great and MLB Hall of Famer.

If you follow those links to their game logs, I think you’ll agree that almost all the others were more streaky than Gibson. Hot streaks:

  • Cheney opened with four CGs that totaled 1 ER, then had four straight yielding 5 runs or more.
  • Daal had eight straight starts of 2 runs or less.
  • McDowell had a 4-game span that totaled 2 runs in 39 IP.
  • Foster tossed four straight shutouts.
  • May won 7 of his last 8, yielding one run or less in each win.

Gibson’ monthly ERAs are all between 3.16 and 4.64 for completed months. The other six on this list all had bigger spreads from best to worst month.

Gibson’s longest streak of 0-1 runs is three starts, in April and in June, with no others consecutive. Just two of his 5+ games were back-to-back, those right after a streak of three good ones. In half his starts, a 0-1 game followed one of 5+, or vice versa. A monthly tally of 0-1 games and 5+ games: three and two in April, same in May, three and one in June, two and two in July, one and two in August.

Of the other six on this list, the pattern closest to Gibson’s seems to be Mike Garcia. Except for two games in April, Garcia’s monthly ERAs were all between 3.19 and 4.60. He had four shutouts and four more starts yielding one run, but none of them were consecutive. Each shutout was followed by a bad game.

By the way, Gibson is on pace for 26 decisions, three more than the next-most on this list. As decisions rise, an extreme ratio of ERA splits becomes more unlikely. But unlikely is normal for Gibson this year. Here’s another wacky split for him, unrelated(?) to our main topic:

Kyle Gibson G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR SB CS BB SO SO/W BA OBP SLG OPS TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB ROE BAbip tOPS+ sOPS+
Pitch 1-25 24 156 142 15 40 8 1 2 0 0 12 27 2.25 .282 .340 .394 .734 56 1 1 0 1 0 1 .333 121 113
Pitch 26-50 24 159 149 21 34 7 2 3 0 0 9 19 2.11 .228 .270 .362 .633 54 4 0 0 1 0 3 .242 89 82
Pitch 51-75 22 144 130 17 35 7 1 4 0 0 11 17 1.55 .269 .326 .431 .757 56 5 0 3 0 0 2 .284 127 108
Pitch 76-100 20 110 101 0 20 0 0 0 0 1 8 15 1.88 .198 .257 .198 .455 20 6 0 1 0 0 2 .233 40 28
Pitch 101+ 8 13 13 2 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 .385 .385 .538 .923 7 1 0 0 0 0 0 .385 176 172
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table / Generated 8/20/2014.

No extra-base hits in pitches #76-100?! We have pitch data back to 1988. No pitcher facing at least 100 batters in that pitch range has put up a zero in extra-base hits. Gibson’s .455 OPS in that split would be 9th-best by raw numbers, 6th-best by percentage of overall mark.

(As for his “0 Runs” for pitch 76-100 … For what it’s worth, no one’s ever had zero runs in this split, either. But I don’t know exactly what’s captured in that tally. The runs in this table total 55, but he’s allowed 66 runs. I thought the gap might be “bequeathed runners scored,” but his 8 BQS would only bring this total to 63. I don’t want to focus on a number that could be in error.)

Splits for pitch 101+ are generally the best, because a modern pitcher isn’t allowed to go much past 100 pitches unless he’s having a good day. But the MLB splits for pitch 76-100 are almost the same as for 51-75.

Can you tie this split of Gibson’s to his up-and-down outings? Or find meaning in any data presented here? I suspect it’s just some weird stuff that happened. Sure is weird, though.

 

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Dr. Doom
Dr. Doom
9 years ago

Avg. game score = 51.0

Can anyone say “average?”

Fascinating stuff. Thanks!

Richard Chester
Richard Chester
9 years ago

For his August 8 game against the A’s Gibson threw 93 pitches. In looking at the PBP he threw 15 pitches after a run scored on a passed ball, meaning that the run scored on his 78th pitch. That run does not show up on the Split Finder for pitches 76-100. Perhaps there are other missing runs.

bstar
9 years ago

I was thinking something like that might explain the gap. I guess they are suggesting that a run scored from a baserunner move without a BIP or after a BIP doesn’t count in pitch-count data. Another example: runner on 1st, single to right, runner advances to third but the throw gets away from the third baseman. The run scores, but it wasn’t the result of the pitch that caused the runner to reach home. So maybe that run would slip through the cracks of pitch-count splits also. I also wonder about unearned runs scored from Bequeathed Runners. According to B-Ref’s… Read more »

bstar
9 years ago
Reply to  bstar

Another possibility: a runner takes off from first with a man on third. The catcher throws to second, and the runner on third breaks for the plate and makes it.

This all happened after the pitch.

Doug
Editor
9 years ago

I was thinking it might have something to do with home/away or the opposition. Gibson’s three worst game scores were all on the road. But, so were his two best. As for the opposition, Gibson has faced 7 teams twice. It was lights out in both games against the Astros, Royals, Mariners and Rangers, Jekyll and Hyde against the Indians and Tigers, and he was lit up both times against the Rays. Overall, he fares distinctly better (3.29 ERA vs 4.84) against the weaker teams (but so do most pitchers). Possibly, the answer may be this split. I Split W… Read more »

brp
brp
9 years ago
Reply to  Doug

How does that last split compare to normal? It would seem to me a 70% hit rate on true line drives sounds about right, actually.

brp
brp
9 years ago
Reply to  John Autin

OK, I didn’t understand Doug’s comment I guess.

I’ve never seen Gibson pitch but these data look like a guy who relies on a breaking-type pitch which is either on or off. It almost fits the profiler of a knuckleballer who either has it or doesn’t depending on the day.

Weird stuff.

Doug
Editor
9 years ago
Reply to  brp

It was more the sOPS+ for ground balls and fly balls that caught my attention. Way off league average (as indicated by those microscopic BABIPs).

Also the ratio between fly balls and line drives – pretty much half and half, which seems like a lot of LDs.