Logan Forsythe and Breakout Seasons |

You’re forgiven if the name Logan Forsythe doesn’t jump out at you. Prior to this season, he had been a journeyman infielder who, in four seasons, had never started more than 75 games, never had more than 350 PA, and had never batted .275 or slugged .400. And, there are lots of Logan Forsythes in the majors; he’s just one of 125 active players (excluding pitchers) who, prior to this season, had career totals of 500 to 1500 PA with OPS+ below 100 and less than 5 WAR.

So, why am I writing about Forsythe? You’ll find out after the break.

As you probably suspected, Forsythe’s fortunes have changed this season. He’s played in 95 of the Rays’ 97 games, including 91 starts and 77 complete games, producing these results:

Player	WAR	OPS+	Year	Age	Tm	G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	Pos
Logan Forsythe	3.3	126	2015	28	TBR	95	377	329	37	93	19	1	10	40	35	63	11	7	3	.283	.369	.438	.806	*43/5HD

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 7/23/2015.

There are no numbers on his stat line that really jump out at you, but it all adds up to some nice numbers for WAR and OPS+. Projected to a full season, those counting stats start looking more impressive:

Player	WAR	OPS+	Year	Age	Tm	G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	Pos
Logan Forsythe	5.5	126	2015	28	TBR	159	630	549	62	155	32	2	17	67	58	105	18	12	5	.283	.369	.438	.806	*43/5HD

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 7/23/2015.

As a point of comparison, only eight active second basemen have had a 5 WAR season with 15 home runs and 30 doubles, and only two had such a season in 2014. So, if Forsythe can maintain his pace, he will have made a notable accomplishment.

Getting back to the 125 active players who, like Forsythe, had mostly nondescript career results prior to this season. Of that group, only 13 (10.4%) have played enough this season to qualify for the batting title.

Rk	Player	WAR	OPS+	Year	Age	Tm	G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	GDP	SB	CS	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	Pos
1	Logan Forsythe	3.3	126	2015	28	TBR	95	377	329	37	93	19	1	10	40	35	63	7	7	3	.283	.369	.438	.806	*43/5HD
2	Xander Bogaerts	3.1	109	2015	22	BOS	91	359	338	40	105	21	3	3	46	16	55	8	4	1	.311	.342	.417	.759	*6/H
3	Dee Gordon	3.0	114	2015	27	MIA	84	378	361	46	122	16	4	1	22	12	62	5	33	12	.338	.359	.413	.772	*4
4	DJ LeMahieu	2.3	101	2015	26	COL	89	365	335	48	105	12	3	4	37	29	62	12	12	3	.313	.368	.403	.771	*4
5	Charlie Blackmon	2.2	114	2015	28	COL	92	399	353	55	103	15	5	12	42	31	69	2	24	7	.292	.363	.465	.827	*87/9H
6	Adeiny Hechavarria	1.6	91	2015	26	MIA	92	361	340	42	95	15	3	4	37	17	59	14	4	1	.279	.316	.376	.692	*6
7	Brad Miller	1.5	101	2015	25	SEA	89	316	279	27	66	13	3	8	28	31	65	5	10	1	.237	.312	.391	.703	*6/DH7498
8	Jean Segura	0.9	84	2015	25	MIL	78	324	309	33	87	6	3	4	27	9	45	7	14	3	.282	.310	.359	.669	*6/H
9	Billy Hamilton	0.7	57	2015	24	CIN	84	342	310	42	70	6	3	3	23	20	54	2	45	7	.226	.272	.294	.566	*8/H
10	Mike Zunino	0.4	50	2015	24	SEA	87	301	271	22	45	8	0	9	23	18	106	4	0	1	.166	.230	.295	.525	*2/H
11	Freddy Galvis	0.4	84	2015	25	PHI	89	348	326	33	88	10	2	4	25	18	62	6	6	1	.270	.311	.350	.661	*6/H
12	Didi Gregorius	0.3	69	2015	25	NYY	86	316	291	28	68	13	0	4	19	17	49	3	4	2	.234	.286	.320	.605	*6/H
13	Nick Castellanos	-0.3	89	2015	23	DET	91	347	319	24	79	13	4	8	43	23	83	13	0	1	.248	.297	.389	.686	*5/DH

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 7/23/2015.

Of the names above, eight have previously had a qualified season, and all but Galvis and Forsythe have previously exceeded 350 PA in a season. So, as a breakout season, Forsythe indeed seems the most qualified for that title.

Looking for historical precedent, there are 307 players since 1901 with 1000 to 1500 career PA thru age 27 with WAR below 5 and OPS+ below 90 (Forsythe had 1098 PA, 2.3 WAR and 84 OPS+ before this season). Of that group, these are the best age 28 seasons.

Rk	Player	WAR	OPS+	Year	Age	Tm	G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	Pos
1	Brady Anderson	5.2	130	1992	28	BAL	159	749	623	100	169	28	10	21	80	98	98	53	16	.271	.373	.449	.823	*7/89H
2	Randy Winn	4.9	120	2002	28	TBD	152	674	607	87	181	39	9	14	75	55	109	27	8	.298	.360	.461	.821	*8/9HD
3	George Gibson	4.1	109	1909	28	PIT	150	571	510	42	135	25	9	2	52	44	26	9		.265	.326	.361	.686	*2
4	Doug Glanville	4.0	107	1999	28	PHI	150	692	628	101	204	38	6	11	73	48	82	34	2	.325	.376	.457	.833	*8/H
5	Darren Daulton	3.9	117	1990	28	PHI	143	540	459	62	123	30	1	12	57	72	72	7	1	.268	.367	.416	.783	*2H
6	Dan Wilson	3.8	96	1997	28	SEA	146	563	508	66	137	31	1	15	74	39	72	7	2	.270	.326	.423	.749	*2/H
7	Maicer Izturis	3.7	109	2009	28	LAA	114	437	387	74	116	22	3	8	65	35	41	13	5	.300	.359	.434	.794	*46H/D57
8	Eddie Kasko	3.7	101	1960	28	CIN	126	537	479	56	140	21	1	6	51	46	37	9	9	.292	.359	.378	.737	*546/H
9	Brandon Inge	3.4	101	2005	28	DET	160	694	616	75	161	31	9	16	72	63	140	7	6	.261	.330	.419	.749	*5/87
10	Jeff King	3.4	105	1993	28	PIT	158	683	611	82	180	35	3	9	98	59	54	8	6	.295	.356	.406	.762	*5/64H
11	Logan Forsythe	3.3	126	2015	28	TBR	95	377	329	37	93	19	1	10	40	35	63	7	3	.283	.369	.438	.806	*43/5HD
12	Marv Owen	3.3	115	1934	28	DET	154	637	565	80	179	34	9	8	98	59	37	3	3	.317	.385	.451	.837	*5
13	Larry McLean	3.3	113	1910	28	CIN	127	455	423	27	126	14	7	2	71	26	23	4		.298	.340	.378	.718	*2
14	Jose Uribe	3.0	106	1987	28	SFG	95	340	309	44	90	16	5	5	30	24	35	12	2	.291	.343	.424	.767	*6/H
15	U.L. Washington	3.0	105	1982	28	KCR	119	487	437	64	125	19	3	10	60	38	48	23	7	.286	.338	.412	.750	*6/HD

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 7/23/2015.

So, not even two-thirds of the way into the season, Forsythe already makes the list and is on pace for top spot by the end of the season. Even if he should falter the rest of the way, top 5 on this list seems very likely for Forsythe.

And, what does a breakout year at age 28 portend for the future. Alas, from a glance at the list above, age 28 is probably too late for a breakout season that significantly changes a player’s career arc. Here’s the best of that group of 307 for the rest of their careers, including their age 28 seasons.

Rk	Player	WAR	OPS+	From	To	Age	G	PA	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	BA	OBP	SLG	Pos
1	Brady Anderson	32.8	115	1992	2002	28-38	1444	6464	923	1424	296	56	200	673	825	980	262	83	.263	.372	.449	*879/HD
2	Randy Winn	25.1	103	2002	2010	28-36	1350	5505	686	1427	312	40	100	555	416	772	162	46	.288	.345	.427	987/HD5
3	Marlon Byrd	23.4	108	2006	2015	28-37	1146	4518	550	1147	231	27	132	547	275	904	37	25	.278	.332	.443	*897/HD
4	Darren Daulton	22.2	125	1990	1997	28-35	832	3298	426	709	166	22	113	487	489	526	41	5	.258	.371	.458	*2/9H3D7
5	John Roseboro	19.5	97	1961	1970	28-37	1215	4218	393	939	148	25	70	419	405	479	42	37	.253	.328	.363	*2H/5
6	Mark McLemore	18.9	86	1993	2004	28-39	1430	5965	780	1345	218	39	48	513	763	808	216	96	.265	.360	.352	*4795/6HD8
7	George McBride	18.4	65	1909	1920	28-39	1304	4909	414	948	117	37	5	359	340	500	104	31	.220	.285	.267	*6/54H
8	Brandon Inge	15.6	85	2005	2013	28-36	1123	4240	448	883	172	25	124	515	354	1013	34	25	.234	.307	.392	*5/2H48937D6
9	Jeff King	15.4	103	1993	1999	28-34	836	3520	451	821	170	11	117	554	360	429	61	20	.266	.340	.442	35/4HD6
10	David Segui	13.5	118	1995	2004	28-37	977	3982	533	1075	217	15	114	527	390	534	13	17	.304	.372	.470	*3D/H79
11	Daryl Spencer	13.3	94	1957	1963	28-34	827	3201	356	703	114	12	71	327	371	373	12	3	.253	.342	.380	*645/H
12	Hobe Ferris	13.3	86	1903	1909	28-34	1008	4011	348	893	160	60	30	424	117	448	65		.236	.260	.334	*45/6
13	George Gibson	13.0	88	1909	1918	28-37	830	2821	208	628	107	35	8	232	218	158	31	3	.250	.314	.330	*2/H
14	Rance Mulliniks	12.9	117	1984	1992	28-36	874	2690	296	667	145	11	54	305	322	373	9	6	.285	.369	.426	*5DH/634
15	Clint Barmes	12.3	79	2007	2015	28-36	904	3075	300	688	154	11	70	295	172	591	32	21	.245	.296	.382	*64/H5839

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 7/23/2015.

So, a handful of the group go on to have useful, productive careers that would not have been predicted prior to their age 28 seasons. Forsythe, at the very least, is making a good start to such a renaissance and, if he can crack the group above, will likely have a career that serious baseball fans will remember.

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mosc

8 years ago

Most of the successful guys you link to were outfielders or catchers and if you toss out Brady Anderson for obvious reasons your list is not filled with substantial contributors. Hard to find a 4/5/6 who matured with the bat at age 28 on that list. Maybe widening the breakout year 27-29 would find a guy or two but Forsythe’s BAbip is up at .322 which is way above his historic levels. He’s not hitting the ball dramatically harder than he did in previous years either, if not less. Fly balls vs home runs is about what you’d expect from… Read more »

Author

Doug

Reply to mosc

They aren’t at the top of the lists but there *are* some 4/5/6 guys there, including McLemore, McBride, Inge, Spencer, Ferris, Mulliniks, Barmes, Izturis, Kasko, King, Owen, Uribe and Washington. Quite a few, actually. I do not see many Rays games, and I haven’t noticed Forsythe in the games I have seen, so I’m not making a case for him. The idea for this post was to identify players who were making significant strides for the first time, and he’s the guy the very simple analysis singled out. I think playing everyday for the first time and being successful at… Read more »

Joseph

Amazing to me that a below average player (-.9 WAA prior to this year) is making $1.1 million.

Being born with baseball talent (and other sports, of course) in these modern times is like winning the lotto.

brp

As Doug said at #2, it makes sense that playing every day might help a player out. I’m sure being able to be in a routine and knowing what the next day will bring can allow a player to relax or get into a rhythm a little easier. It also makes sense as Forsythe is right in the standard “hitter’s peak” from ages 27-29. However, as mosc states, other numbers don’t bode well for him to continue. Fangraphs shows his batted ball percentages as such: Year – Soft% – Med% – Hard% 2015 – 17.2% – 54.5%- 28.4% 2014 –… Read more »

David P

Two points re: Forsythe: 1) He is a former #1 draft pick so it’s not like he came from nowhere. And his minor league numbers look decent. 2) He has a really strange split this season in that he’s hitting much better when the Ray lose than when they win. He has a .887 OPS in losses, .725 in wins. Historically that’s the 16th biggest split between OPS in losses and overall OPS (350+ PAs). I’m not sure how many seasons there are overall other than to say there are lots (the PI will only show me the first 1,500… Read more »

Richard Chester

Reply to David P

David: I am making some assumptions here but I would like to question your interpretation of the PI Split Finder results for OPS in team wins and losses. I did what I think you did, accessed the Batting Split Finder and set it for game outcome for team, in losses, PA => 350, sorted by OPS, difference between total and split. You said that Forsythe’s loss and home splits were .887 and .725 for a difference of .162 (although my results sheet shows .867 in losses). On the PI results sheet 16th place shows Einar Diaz with a difference between… Read more »

Reply to Richard Chester

Richard – Actually I was simply reporting the results of the PI search that I ran which showed Forsythe in 16th place (no doubling involved). Though doubling would have worked just as well…when I ran the search, Forsythe had 187 PA in wins, and 190 in losses. He’s since played in one more loss, going 0-4 and “dropping” to 28th place.